politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first phone poll since March has CON 5% ahead but Starmer
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first phone poll since March has CON 5% ahead but Starmer with a net 32% lead on leader satisfaction
Today we heard something of a pulling rarity – a phone survey from Ipsos Mori – the first since March well before starmer became Labour leader. The firm is the only one still doing national phone political surveys which cost a huge amount more than online polling.
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CON 10% ahead at GE2024
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Second, like Boris Johnson.0
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I think Johnson will be very happy to be polling 48% satisfied. So long as that continues, Johnson will probably be re-elected at the next General Election.0
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Forth, like the Firth2
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Brexit Party polling 0%, 48% of the country happy with Johnson and the party leads in the polls.
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And if Boris loses polling 48% he can always stamp his feet for the next three years and demand another vote!Philip_Thompson said:I think Johnson will be very happy to be polling 48% satisfied. So long as that continues, Johnson will probably be re-elected at the next General Election.
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FPT
I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?3 -
LDs back in double figures to 10%, should be a boost to Davey's leadership campaign.
Also pushes Labour back under 40% as LD Remainers are more likely to vote Labour (outside of LD target seats) than mainly Leave voting Tories0 -
Meanwhile, in the US:
https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738
I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.9 -
Being serious, I think its easy to say that you're satisfied with Starmer (or like 20% of the country not saying anything) without having any intention of voting for him precisely because of what he has followed.
If I was polled I'd probably say I was satisfied with Starmer (or at least not dissatisfied with him) as he's clearly a marked improvement on Corbyn without having any intention of voting for him.2 -
PB Tories know how to do this: vote early, vote often.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, in the US:
https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738
I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.1 -
That is truly epic.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, in the US:
https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738
I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.
what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.0 -
FPT
Well, I'm not gay!Carnyx said:
He was gay?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?1 -
That is a bit close to the knuckleydoethur said:FPT
I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?
PS OOOOOH I see now you meant trains5 -
You have trains close to your knuckles?malcolmg said:
That is a bit close to the knuckleydoethur said:FPT
I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?0 -
Shhh, that's a secret, don't tell him.ydoethur said:
That is truly epic.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, in the US:
https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738
I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.
what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.0 -
Oooh you meant trainsydoethur said:
You have trains close to your knuckles?malcolmg said:
That is a bit close to the knuckleydoethur said:FPT
I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?0 -
Now I’m intrigued. What did you think I meant?malcolmg said:
That is a bit close to the knuckleydoethur said:FPT
I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?
PS OOOOOH I see now you meant trains
Edit - actually, don’t answer, I don’t want to know!3 -
Nothing inanimate, I assumed that it/they had a pulse as a minimumydoethur said:
Now I’m intrigued. What did you think I meant?malcolmg said:
That is a bit close to the knuckleydoethur said:FPT
I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?
PS OOOOOH I see now you meant trains0 -
Well, I dunno...malcolmg said:
Nothing inanimate, I assumed that it/they had a pulse as a minimumydoethur said:
Now I’m intrigued. What did you think I meant?malcolmg said:
That is a bit close to the knuckleydoethur said:FPT
I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?
PS OOOOOH I see now you meant trains
https://youtu.be/B6gd1OECL_81 -
FPT
Body odour, bad breath, boorish attitude ...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?
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Mammie's boyBeibheirli_C said:FPT
Body odour, bad breath, boorish attitude ...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?0 -
It absolutely looks like Trump's constant criticism of postal voting is going to end up disenfranchising poor white rural voters, an absolutely key demographic for him.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, in the US:
https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738
I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.
Preliminary analysis of the Wisconsin Supreme Court vote that the GOP lost in an upset showed low usage of postal votes in rural Wisconsin and a big drop in turnout there as well.
Trump has loaded and gun and pointed it at his foot.1 -
CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?
I know a number of married men who would answer 'good sense' in response to that.3 -
Are we in TV Serial territory.ydoethur said:FPT
I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?
Can't understand this one unless you read the last one?
Ted Heath?0 -
Mummy's boys smell?malcolmg said:
Mammie's boyBeibheirli_C said:FPT
Body odour, bad breath, boorish attitude ...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?0 -
Yes Johnson's net ratings aren't too bad but it's the change that ought to worry people. I'd be amazed if his ratings don't sink lower than this.1
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Edward Colston, in this case.MattW said:
Are we in TV Serial territory.ydoethur said:FPT
I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?
Can't understand this one unless you read the last one?
Ted Heath?
I don’t think Heath has any statues erected to him, but I could be wrong.0 -
Pretty universal in Colston's day!Beibheirli_C said:FPT
Body odour, bad breath, boorish attitude ...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?
And not infrequent now...0 -
And if not, nailed on as the next Bond.Philip_Thompson said:I think Johnson will be very happy to be polling 48% satisfied. So long as that continues, Johnson will probably be re-elected at the next General Election.
Craig is not for turning, I gather.0 -
Thankfully, things have moved on a bit since thenFoxy said:
Pretty universal in Colston's day!Beibheirli_C said:FPT
Body odour, bad breath, boorish attitude ...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?
And not infrequent now...
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Prepare to be not amazed.FrankBooth said:Yes Johnson's net ratings aren't too bad but it's the change that ought to worry people. I'd be amazed if his ratings don't sink lower than this.
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School coming back in mid August, at one third capacity - rota to be posted later.0
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Busy with work?malcolmg said:
Mammie's boyBeibheirli_C said:FPT
Body odour, bad breath, boorish attitude ...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?0 -
How are they going to manage it? One third attending lessons so the teacher teaches three lessons in succession, or lessons streamed live to those not there, or project work?Alistair said:School coming back in mid August, at one third capacity - rota to be posted later.
I don’t think this has been thought through, although I would like to be pleasantly surprised.0 -
...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.CarlottaVance said:
Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.1 -
Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?isam said:
...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.CarlottaVance said:
Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.
Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.1 -
...
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Give him a chance, Keir has only had a couple of months. 4 more years of skewering the blathering buffoon should do it.CarlottaVance said:4 -
Blimey.. I wrote a thread about it last Saturday, although it was only up for a ludicrously short while. I HAVE got the figuresydoethur said:
Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?isam said:
...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.CarlottaVance said:
Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.
Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.
For a start, it's only been done, as far as I can see, by IPSOS MORI since 1978, hence "since records began in 1978"
And when those records began, Maggie led Callaghan by between 5-6 points, (29-23 in Sep 78 and 30-25 the following April)
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Isam's proposition is that in the reality TV era we have lost attention span and seriousness such that a "big character" is now almost bound to win if up against a fade to grey type. I think there is something in it - but I sense a change coming.ydoethur said:
Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?isam said:
...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.CarlottaVance said:
Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.
Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.0 -
Maggie vs Labour leadersisam said:
Blimey.. I wrote a thread about it last Saturday, although it was only up for a ludicrously short while. I HAVE got the figuresydoethur said:
Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?isam said:
...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.CarlottaVance said:
Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.
Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.
For a start, it's only been done, as far as I can see, by IPSOS MORI since 1978, hence "since records began in 1978"
And when those records began, Maggie led Callaghan by between 5-6 points, (29-23 in Sep 78 and 30-25 the following April)
Red = VI lead
Navy = Net Satisfaction lead
Light Blue = Personality lead
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We're in the middle of a pandemic and negotiations with the EU that are vital to our future. Why are we obsessing about who may win the next election?
Please God we all last that long.5 -
Try not to write threads just before new polls are released, would be my advice.isam said:
Blimey.. I wrote a thread about it last Saturday, although it was only up for a ludicrously short while. I HAVE got the figuresydoethur said:
Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?isam said:
...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.CarlottaVance said:
Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.
Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.
For a start, it's only been done, as far as I can see, by IPSOS MORI since 1978, hence "since records began in 1978"
And when those records began, Maggie led Callaghan by between 5-6 points, (29-23 in Sep 78 and 30-25 the following April)0 -
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I have an old colleague who really, really loves Deltic diesels, and their throbbing.ydoethur said:
Well, I dunno...malcolmg said:
Nothing inanimate, I assumed that it/they had a pulse as a minimumydoethur said:
Now I’m intrigued. What did you think I meant?malcolmg said:
That is a bit close to the knuckleydoethur said:FPT
I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?
PS OOOOOH I see now you meant trains
https://youtu.be/B6gd1OECL_80 -
You mean your school police didn’t have grenade launchers ... ?
https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/12715046340671201290 -
"The Oakland School Police Department received a “tactical utility truck,” according to the state. The department remodeled the vehicle, which is used as an attraction at school events and parades, Sgt. Barhin Bhatt said.Nigelb said:You mean your school police didn’t have grenade launchers ... ?
https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1271504634067120129
“It’s a rolling public relations vehicle,” Bhatt said. “We end up having to bring out a gas can and jumper cables every time we want to drive it — it’s only used twice a year.”"
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You think our 20% drop in annualised GDP is bad? India was 45%, according to the Economist.eadric said:India has just recorded its highest daily death toll.
The virus is, now, really kicking in across the 3rd world and the South (as Spanish Flu did, after its initial northern hit)
India, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Pakistan: all are on the steeper part of the upwards curve
With no real welfare state, the urban poor in particular are going to be hit very hard. At least subsistence farmers can eat.
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Check the first tweet. All opposition leaders enjoy a honeymoon. All fall.......Foxy said:
Give him a chance, Keir has only had a couple of months. 4 more years of skewering the blathering buffoon should do it.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Thanks. Interesting, and also surprising given that as I recall Callaghan had a lead in overall personal ratings.isam said:
Blimey.. I wrote a thread about it last Saturday, although it was only up for a ludicrously short while. I HAVE got the figuresydoethur said:
Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?isam said:
...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.CarlottaVance said:
Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.
Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.
For a start, it's only been done, as far as I can see, by IPSOS MORI since 1978, hence "since records began in 1978"
And when those records began, Maggie led Callaghan by between 5-6 points, (29-23 in Sep 78 and 30-25 the following April)0 -
It’s the massive horn that attracts me...Carnyx said:
I have an old colleague who really, really loves Deltic diesels, and their throbbing.ydoethur said:
Well, I dunno...malcolmg said:
Nothing inanimate, I assumed that it/they had a pulse as a minimumydoethur said:
Now I’m intrigued. What did you think I meant?malcolmg said:
That is a bit close to the knuckleydoethur said:FPT
I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?
PS OOOOOH I see now you meant trains
https://youtu.be/B6gd1OECL_81 -
Isn't there a theory that Trump didn't want to win in 2016. Maybe he doesn't want to win in 2020?ydoethur said:
That is truly epic.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, in the US:
https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738
I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.
what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.
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Hamilton took its statue down earlier today.eadric said:
Because London is led by that appeasing little gnome Sadiq KhanAndy_JS said:
https://twitter.com/1NewsNZ/status/1271266008519413760?s=090 -
Then there’s the whole tunnel thing...ydoethur said:
It’s the massive horn that attracts me...Carnyx said:
I have an old colleague who really, really loves Deltic diesels, and their throbbing.ydoethur said:
Well, I dunno...malcolmg said:
Nothing inanimate, I assumed that it/they had a pulse as a minimumydoethur said:
Now I’m intrigued. What did you think I meant?malcolmg said:
That is a bit close to the knuckleydoethur said:FPT
I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?
PS OOOOOH I see now you meant trains
https://youtu.be/B6gd1OECL_82 -
This is highly unfortunate as well:eadric said:India has just recorded its highest daily death toll.
The virus is, now, really kicking in across the 3rd world and the South (as Spanish Flu did, after its initial northern hit)
India, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Pakistan: all are on the steeper part of the upwards curve
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/12/china-annexes-60-square-km-india-ladakh-simmering-tensions-erupt/
If Modi flings blame for Coronavirus on China...0 -
That you live in a society that hasn't developed marriage yet?CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?2 -
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0
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Who could blame him, given the total clusterfuck he has made of things?CatMan said:
Isn't there a theory that Trump didn't want to win in 2016. Maybe he doesn't want to win in 2020?ydoethur said:
That is truly epic.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, in the US:
https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738
I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.
what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.
Actually, come to think of it, that would be a very good reason for blaming him.0 -
There’s nothing civil about this war.Nigelb said:Obviously one of his better interviews...
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/12714990182339297280 -
I think it's pretty well documented regarding 2016.CatMan said:
Isn't there a theory that Trump didn't want to win in 2016. Maybe he doesn't want to win in 2020?ydoethur said:
That is truly epic.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, in the US:
https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738
I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.
what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.
He's kind of acting like he doesn't want to win this year. Hard to tell though with someone as dishonest as him exactly what he really wants.0 -
Tonight's wildlife report: There was a frog in our garage. Now safely released in the woods.1
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Not so daft in a country of school shootings.Nigelb said:You mean your school police didn’t have grenade launchers ... ?
https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1271504634067120129
Though nothing compared to the armoury at this school speech day...
https://youtu.be/GJ1LG08ssaM1 -
We currently have a pigeon in our garden who has lost his ability to fly.SandyRentool said:Tonight's wildlife report: There was a frog in our garage. Now safely released in the woods.
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Well, that was a bit silly of you. Unless it had permanent residence, it needed to go through quarantine after arriving from France.SandyRentool said:Tonight's wildlife report: There was a frog in our garage. Now safely released in the woods.
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More that the better appeasers had a coherent view and end goal, namely a destructive war between the Nazis and the Soviets, whereas Khan is just an incoherent and incompetent panderer.ydoethur said:0 -
Wouldn't not replacing the toilet seat have been the the clincher for potential Mrs Colstons?Beibheirli_C said:FPT
Body odour, bad breath, boorish attitude ...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?
0 -
We have 611 deaths per million population, compared to 194 in Brazil. Suggesting Brazil will overtake the UK this weekend is not a sober prediction even by your own sozzled standards.eadric said:Brazil will overtake the UK in death toll over the weekend.
The UK will drop from silver to bronze.1 -
Our dog caught a blackbird today. I am not best pleased about this.Pulpstar said:
We currently have a pigeon in our garden who has lost his ability to fly.SandyRentool said:Tonight's wildlife report: There was a frog in our garage. Now safely released in the woods.
She also gave a hedgehog a good shaking but neither creature came to any harm.0 -
You could name it Boris?Pulpstar said:
We currently have a pigeon in our garden who has lost his ability to fly.SandyRentool said:Tonight's wildlife report: There was a frog in our garage. Now safely released in the woods.
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Quite a few responses to that tweet are not happy, he was not a slave trader but a general in the Maori Wars.Foxy said:
Hamilton took its statue down earlier today.eadric said:
Because London is led by that appeasing little gnome Sadiq KhanAndy_JS said:
https://twitter.com/1NewsNZ/status/1271266008519413760?s=09
It is a part of New Zealand's history for good or ill0 -
India still not even in the top 10 nations for coronavirus deaths and only 4th on cases despite being the 2nd most populous nation on earth.eadric said:India has just recorded its highest daily death toll.
The virus is, now, really kicking in across the 3rd world and the South (as Spanish Flu did, after its initial northern hit)
India, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Pakistan: all are on the steeper part of the upwards curve
Modi still doing well0 -
Actually, sorry that seemed a tad aggressive, I was being dramatic for effect.ydoethur said:
Thanks. Interesting, and also surprising given that as I recall Callaghan had a lead in overall personal ratings.isam said:
Blimey.. I wrote a thread about it last Saturday, although it was only up for a ludicrously short while. I HAVE got the figuresydoethur said:
Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?isam said:
...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.CarlottaVance said:
Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.
Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.
For a start, it's only been done, as far as I can see, by IPSOS MORI since 1978, hence "since records began in 1978"
And when those records began, Maggie led Callaghan by between 5-6 points, (29-23 in Sep 78 and 30-25 the following April)
The thread was here
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/06/06/the-case-for-making-personality-ratings-a-good-electoral-indicator/
I think I made a mistake, Howard was not ahead in VI in Sep 04, it was May 04, and a tie in June. Not with IPSOS MORI though. I think the point still stands that he was losing on VI and NS but never on Personality
This is the graph for Blair vs Major, Hague and Howard
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You think they had toilet seats away back then? Thomas Crapper did not gift his massive contribution to mankind until the Mid 1800sMexicanpete said:
Wouldn't not replacing the toilet seat have been the the clincher for potential Mrs Colstons?Beibheirli_C said:FPT
Body odour, bad breath, boorish attitude ...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Enlighten us! I'm only 44CarlottaVance said:
He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?1 -
0
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There's a good chance that if Trump leaves the White House he will shortly thereafter enter jail.CatMan said:
Isn't there a theory that Trump didn't want to win in 2016. Maybe he doesn't want to win in 2020?ydoethur said:
That is truly epic.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, in the US:
https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738
I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.
what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.0 -
In France in 2012 the dullard also won when Hollande narrowly beat Sarkozy after 17 years of the left out of power in the Elyseeisam said:
Actually, sorry that seemed a tad aggressive, I was being dramatic for effect.ydoethur said:
Thanks. Interesting, and also surprising given that as I recall Callaghan had a lead in overall personal ratings.isam said:
Blimey.. I wrote a thread about it last Saturday, although it was only up for a ludicrously short while. I HAVE got the figuresydoethur said:
Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?isam said:
...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.CarlottaVance said:
Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.
Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.
For a start, it's only been done, as far as I can see, by IPSOS MORI since 1978, hence "since records began in 1978"
And when those records began, Maggie led Callaghan by between 5-6 points, (29-23 in Sep 78 and 30-25 the following April)
The thread was here
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/06/06/the-case-for-making-personality-ratings-a-good-electoral-indicator/
I think I made a mistake, Howard was not ahead in VI in Sep 04, it was May 04, and a tie in June. Not with IPSOS MORI though. I think the point still stands that he was losing on VI and NS but never on Personality
This is the graph for Blair vs Major, Hague and Howard0 -
"'The science' was right – it was the Government that was wrong
SAGE advisors never suggested a full lockdown - so why are they now trying to rewrite history?
TOBY YOUNG"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/12/science-right-government-wrong/0 -
Not a good look.CarlottaVance said:Like that's new.....
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1271502863915761671?s=200 -
Perhaps he'll show us he's the kind of guy who eventually gets what he wants.CatMan said:
Isn't there a theory that Trump didn't want to win in 2016. Maybe he doesn't want to win in 2020?ydoethur said:
That is truly epic.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, in the US:
https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738
I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.
what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.
Meanwhile he's trying to stop the subpoenas against his businesses in the Trump International Hotel emoluments case. Not much seems to be going right for him at the moment.
Condoleezza Rice has said he should lay off the tweeting. Has he thought of a nasty playground nickname for her yet?0 -
It was only put up in 2013 it seems.HYUFD said:
Quite a few responses to that tweet are not happy, he was not a slave trader but a general in the Maori Wars.Foxy said:
Hamilton took its statue down earlier today.eadric said:
Because London is led by that appeasing little gnome Sadiq KhanAndy_JS said:
https://twitter.com/1NewsNZ/status/1271266008519413760?s=09
It is a part of New Zealand's history for good or ill
Land rights are a big issue in NZ, and the culture of respect for ancestors of the Maori people means that an insult to ancestors is deeply felt.0 -
Evening all
Perhaps of more interest from New Zealand than matters statuesque:
https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2020/06/unemployment-crisis-covid-economic-recovery/
A taste of what is happening/will happen here?0 -
A 45% drop in quarterly GDP says not.HYUFD said:
India still not even in the top 10 nations for coronavirus deaths and only 4th on cases despite being the 2nd most populous nation on earth.eadric said:India has just recorded its highest daily death toll.
The virus is, now, really kicking in across the 3rd world and the South (as Spanish Flu did, after its initial northern hit)
India, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Pakistan: all are on the steeper part of the upwards curve
Modi still doing well
https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/india-gdp-contract-45-percent-june-quarter-goldman-sachs-forecast-worst-recession-coronavirus-1679138-2020-05-180 -
He could probably get asylum in Russia...LostPassword said:
There's a good chance that if Trump leaves the White House he will shortly thereafter enter jail.CatMan said:
Isn't there a theory that Trump didn't want to win in 2016. Maybe he doesn't want to win in 2020?ydoethur said:
That is truly epic.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, in the US:
https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738
I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.
what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.0 -
These are the categories, Maggie vs Callaghanydoethur said:
Thanks. Interesting, and also surprising given that as I recall Callaghan had a lead in overall personal ratings.isam said:
Blimey.. I wrote a thread about it last Saturday, although it was only up for a ludicrously short while. I HAVE got the figuresydoethur said:
Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?isam said:
...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.CarlottaVance said:
Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.
Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.
For a start, it's only been done, as far as I can see, by IPSOS MORI since 1978, hence "since records began in 1978"
And when those records began, Maggie led Callaghan by between 5-6 points, (29-23 in Sep 78 and 30-25 the following April)
You're right, he beat her on almost everything... except personalty
0 -
I guess the fact they missed the fact the Joint Committee meeting earlier today where the UK would have had to request an extension if we were going to get one was before their meeting tonight?CarlottaVance said:Like that's new.....
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1271502863915761671?s=20
Having a meeting at 6pm AFTER the final Joint Committee meeting hardly leaves room to discuss it now, does it? Of all the potential criticisms this really is the lamest.0 -
In ratings, yes. In managing the pandemic, TBC.HYUFD said:
Modi still doing welleadric said:India has just recorded its highest daily death toll.
The virus is, now, really kicking in across the 3rd world and the South (as Spanish Flu did, after its initial northern hit)
India, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Pakistan: all are on the steeper part of the upwards curve
0 -
You know Boris is in trouble when the Telegraph start sticking the knife in ....Andy_JS said:"'The science' was right – it was the Government that was wrong
SAGE advisors never suggested a full lockdown - so why are they now trying to rewrite history?
TOBY YOUNG"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/12/science-right-government-wrong/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/12/britain-ship-fools-heading-rocks
0 -
Leave office early and Pence will pardon him. There's a precedent.LostPassword said:
There's a good chance that if Trump leaves the White House he will shortly thereafter enter jail.CatMan said:
Isn't there a theory that Trump didn't want to win in 2016. Maybe he doesn't want to win in 2020?ydoethur said:
That is truly epic.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, in the US:
https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738
I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.
what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.
0 -
No detail too trivialPhilip_Thompson said:
I guess the fact they missed the fact the Joint Committee meeting earlier today where the UK would have had to request an extension if we were going to get one was before their meeting tonight?CarlottaVance said:Like that's new.....
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1271502863915761671?s=20
Having a meeting at 6pm AFTER the final Joint Committee meeting hardly leaves room to discuss it now, does it? Of all the potential criticisms this really is the lamest.
No grievance to unmonger...
0 -
That is a very, very worrying article.stodge said:Evening all
Perhaps of more interest from New Zealand than matters statuesque:
https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2020/06/unemployment-crisis-covid-economic-recovery/
A taste of what is happening/will happen here?0 -
Upcoming woes for the govt.... I had an email today from my old accountant (I am still on his email list it seems) to remind anyone who had taken govt money that the Self-Employed Income Support Scheme (SEISS) is a taxable grant that the Revenue will soon be wanting them repaid in increased tax and NI contributrions.stodge said:Evening all
Perhaps of more interest from New Zealand than matters statuesque:
https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2020/06/unemployment-crisis-covid-economic-recovery/
A taste of what is happening/will happen here?
That should go down well.0 -
Beibheirli_C said:
You know Boris is in trouble when the Telegraph start sticking the knife in ....Andy_JS said:"'The science' was right – it was the Government that was wrong
SAGE advisors never suggested a full lockdown - so why are they now trying to rewrite history?
TOBY YOUNG"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/12/science-right-government-wrong/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/12/britain-ship-fools-heading-rocks
Both the Mail and the Borisgraph appear to be hedging their bets...0 -
Sure, but Brazil's on track for exceeding the UK's deaths per million as well. The second half of 2020 will be much worse than the first half.IanB2 said:
We have 611 deaths per million population, compared to 194 in Brazil. Suggesting Brazil will overtake the UK this weekend is not a sober prediction even by your own sozzled standards.eadric said:Brazil will overtake the UK in death toll over the weekend.
The UK will drop from silver to bronze.1
