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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first phone poll since March has CON 5% ahead but Starmer with a net 32% lead on leader satisfaction

Today we heard something of a pulling rarity – a phone survey from Ipsos Mori – the first since March well before starmer became Labour leader. The firm is the only one still doing national phone political surveys which cost a huge amount more than online polling.

Read the full story here

Ave_it

CON 10% ahead at GE2024

OnlyLivingBoy

Second, like Boris Johnson.

Philip_Thompson

I think Johnson will be very happy to be polling 48% satisfied. So long as that continues, Johnson will probably be re-elected at the next General Election.

BluestBlue

Forth, like the Firth

Philip_Thompson

Brexit Party polling 0%, 48% of the country happy with Johnson and the party leads in the polls.

Ave_it

Philip_Thompson said:

I think Johnson will be very happy to be polling 48% satisfied. So long as that continues, Johnson will probably be re-elected at the next General Election.

And if Boris loses polling 48% he can always stamp his feet for the next three years and demand another vote!

ydoethur

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.

HYUFD

LDs back in double figures to 10%, should be a boost to Davey's leadership campaign.

Also pushes Labour back under 40% as LD Remainers are more likely to vote Labour (outside of LD target seats) than mainly Leave voting Tories

Richard_Nabavi

Meanwhile, in the US:

https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738

I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.

Philip_Thompson

Being serious, I think its easy to say that you're satisfied with Starmer (or like 20% of the country not saying anything) without having any intention of voting for him precisely because of what he has followed.

If I was polled I'd probably say I was satisfied with Starmer (or at least not dissatisfied with him) as he's clearly a marked improvement on Corbyn without having any intention of voting for him.

RobD

Richard_Nabavi said:

Meanwhile, in the US:

https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738

I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.

PB Tories know how to do this: vote early, vote often.

ydoethur

Richard_Nabavi said:

Meanwhile, in the US:

https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738

I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.

That is truly epic.

what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.

Sunil_Prasannan

FPT

Carnyx said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

He was gay?

Well, I'm not gay!

malcolmg

ydoethur said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.

That is a bit close to the knuckle
PS OOOOOH I see now you meant trains

ydoethur

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.

That is a bit close to the knuckle

You have trains close to your knuckles?

Philip_Thompson

ydoethur said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Meanwhile, in the US:

https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738

I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.

That is truly epic.

what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.

Shhh, that's a secret, don't tell him.

malcolmg

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.

That is a bit close to the knuckle

You have trains close to your knuckles?

Oooh you meant trains

ydoethur

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.

That is a bit close to the knuckle
PS OOOOOH I see now you meant trains

Now I’m intrigued. What did you think I meant?

Edit - actually, don’t answer, I don’t want to know!

malcolmg

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.

That is a bit close to the knuckle
PS OOOOOH I see now you meant trains

Now I’m intrigued. What did you think I meant?

Nothing inanimate, I assumed that it/they had a pulse as a minimum

ydoethur

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.

That is a bit close to the knuckle
PS OOOOOH I see now you meant trains

Now I’m intrigued. What did you think I meant?

Nothing inanimate, I assumed that it/they had a pulse as a minimum

Well, I dunno...
https://youtu.be/B6gd1OECL_8

Beibheirli_C

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

Body odour, bad breath, boorish attitude ...

malcolmg

Beibheirli_C said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

Body odour, bad breath, boorish attitude ...

Mammie's boy

Alistair

Richard_Nabavi said:

Meanwhile, in the US:

https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738

I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.

It absolutely looks like Trump's constant criticism of postal voting is going to end up disenfranchising poor white rural voters, an absolutely key demographic for him.

Preliminary analysis of the Wisconsin Supreme Court vote that the GOP lost in an upset showed low usage of postal votes in rural Wisconsin and a big drop in turnout there as well.

Trump has loaded and gun and pointed it at his foot.

Stark_Dawning

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

I know a number of married men who would answer 'good sense' in response to that.

MattW

ydoethur said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.

Are we in TV Serial territory.

Can't understand this one unless you read the last one?

Ted Heath?

Beibheirli_C

malcolmg said:

Beibheirli_C said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

Body odour, bad breath, boorish attitude ...

Mammie's boy

Mummy's boys smell?

FrankBooth

Yes Johnson's net ratings aren't too bad but it's the change that ought to worry people. I'd be amazed if his ratings don't sink lower than this.

ydoethur

MattW said:

ydoethur said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.

Are we in TV Serial territory.

Can't understand this one unless you read the last one?

Ted Heath?

Edward Colston, in this case.

I don’t think Heath has any statues erected to him, but I could be wrong.

Foxy

Beibheirli_C said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

Body odour, bad breath, boorish attitude ...

Pretty universal in Colston's day!

And not infrequent now...

kinabalu

Philip_Thompson said:

I think Johnson will be very happy to be polling 48% satisfied. So long as that continues, Johnson will probably be re-elected at the next General Election.

And if not, nailed on as the next Bond.

Craig is not for turning, I gather.

Beibheirli_C

Foxy said:

Beibheirli_C said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

Body odour, bad breath, boorish attitude ...

Pretty universal in Colston's day!

And not infrequent now...

Thankfully, things have moved on a bit since then

kinabalu

FrankBooth said:

Yes Johnson's net ratings aren't too bad but it's the change that ought to worry people. I'd be amazed if his ratings don't sink lower than this.

Prepare to be not amazed.

CarlottaVance

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380123162476545?s=20

But...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380124970225665?s=20

And....

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380126845075456?s=20

Alistair

School coming back in mid August, at one third capacity - rota to be posted later.

rottenborough

malcolmg said:

Beibheirli_C said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

Body odour, bad breath, boorish attitude ...

Mammie's boy

Busy with work?

ydoethur

Alistair said:

School coming back in mid August, at one third capacity - rota to be posted later.

How are they going to manage it? One third attending lessons so the teacher teaches three lessons in succession, or lessons streamed live to those not there, or project work?

I don’t think this has been thought through, although I would like to be pleasantly surprised.

isam

CarlottaVance said:

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380123162476545?s=20

But...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380124970225665?s=20

And....

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380126845075456?s=20

...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.

Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.

ydoethur

isam said:

CarlottaVance said:

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380123162476545?s=20

But...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380124970225665?s=20

And....

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380126845075456?s=20

...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.

Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.

Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?

Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.

isam

...

Foxy

CarlottaVance said:

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380123162476545?s=20

But...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380124970225665?s=20

And....

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380126845075456?s=20

Give him a chance, Keir has only had a couple of months. 4 more years of skewering the blathering buffoon should do it.

isam

ydoethur said:

isam said:

CarlottaVance said:

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380123162476545?s=20

But...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380124970225665?s=20

And....

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380126845075456?s=20

...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.

Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.

Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?

Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.

Blimey.. I wrote a thread about it last Saturday, although it was only up for a ludicrously short while. I HAVE got the figures

For a start, it's only been done, as far as I can see, by IPSOS MORI since 1978, hence "since records began in 1978"

And when those records began, Maggie led Callaghan by between 5-6 points, (29-23 in Sep 78 and 30-25 the following April)

kinabalu

ydoethur said:

isam said:

CarlottaVance said:

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380123162476545?s=20

But...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380124970225665?s=20

And....

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380126845075456?s=20

...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.

Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.

Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?

Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.

Isam's proposition is that in the reality TV era we have lost attention span and seriousness such that a "big character" is now almost bound to win if up against a fade to grey type. I think there is something in it - but I sense a change coming.

isam

isam said:

ydoethur said:

isam said:

CarlottaVance said:

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380123162476545?s=20

But...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380124970225665?s=20

And....

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380126845075456?s=20

...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.

Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.

Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?

Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.

Blimey.. I wrote a thread about it last Saturday, although it was only up for a ludicrously short while. I HAVE got the figures

For a start, it's only been done, as far as I can see, by IPSOS MORI since 1978, hence "since records began in 1978"

And when those records began, Maggie led Callaghan by between 5-6 points, (29-23 in Sep 78 and 30-25 the following April)

Maggie vs Labour leaders

Red = VI lead
Navy = Net Satisfaction lead
Light Blue = Personality lead

Peter_the_Punter

We're in the middle of a pandemic and negotiations with the EU that are vital to our future. Why are we obsessing about who may win the next election?

Please God we all last that long.

DecrepiterJohnL

isam said:

ydoethur said:

isam said:

CarlottaVance said:

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380123162476545?s=20

But...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380124970225665?s=20

And....

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380126845075456?s=20

...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.

Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.

Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?

Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.

Blimey.. I wrote a thread about it last Saturday, although it was only up for a ludicrously short while. I HAVE got the figures

For a start, it's only been done, as far as I can see, by IPSOS MORI since 1978, hence "since records began in 1978"

And when those records began, Maggie led Callaghan by between 5-6 points, (29-23 in Sep 78 and 30-25 the following April)

Try not to write threads just before new polls are released, would be my advice.

Andy_JS

https://twitter.com/Michael_Heaver/status/1271442430835949569

Carnyx

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.

That is a bit close to the knuckle
PS OOOOOH I see now you meant trains

Now I’m intrigued. What did you think I meant?

Nothing inanimate, I assumed that it/they had a pulse as a minimum

Well, I dunno...
https://youtu.be/B6gd1OECL_8

I have an old colleague who really, really loves Deltic diesels, and their throbbing.

Nigelb

You mean your school police didn’t have grenade launchers ... ?

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1271504634067120129

Carnyx

Nigelb said:

You mean your school police didn’t have grenade launchers ... ?

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1271504634067120129

"The Oakland School Police Department received a “tactical utility truck,” according to the state. The department remodeled the vehicle, which is used as an attraction at school events and parades, Sgt. Barhin Bhatt said.

“It’s a rolling public relations vehicle,” Bhatt said. “We end up having to bring out a gas can and jumper cables every time we want to drive it — it’s only used twice a year.”"

Foxy

eadric said:

India has just recorded its highest daily death toll.

The virus is, now, really kicking in across the 3rd world and the South (as Spanish Flu did, after its initial northern hit)

India, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Pakistan: all are on the steeper part of the upwards curve

You think our 20% drop in annualised GDP is bad? India was 45%, according to the Economist.

With no real welfare state, the urban poor in particular are going to be hit very hard. At least subsistence farmers can eat.

CarlottaVance

Foxy said:

CarlottaVance said:

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380123162476545?s=20

But...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380124970225665?s=20

And....

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380126845075456?s=20

Give him a chance, Keir has only had a couple of months. 4 more years of skewering the blathering buffoon should do it.

Check the first tweet. All opposition leaders enjoy a honeymoon. All fall.......

ydoethur

isam said:

ydoethur said:

isam said:

CarlottaVance said:

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380123162476545?s=20

But...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380124970225665?s=20

And....

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380126845075456?s=20

...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.

Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.

Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?

Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.

Blimey.. I wrote a thread about it last Saturday, although it was only up for a ludicrously short while. I HAVE got the figures

For a start, it's only been done, as far as I can see, by IPSOS MORI since 1978, hence "since records began in 1978"

And when those records began, Maggie led Callaghan by between 5-6 points, (29-23 in Sep 78 and 30-25 the following April)

Thanks. Interesting, and also surprising given that as I recall Callaghan had a lead in overall personal ratings.

ydoethur

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.

That is a bit close to the knuckle
PS OOOOOH I see now you meant trains

Now I’m intrigued. What did you think I meant?

Nothing inanimate, I assumed that it/they had a pulse as a minimum

Well, I dunno...
https://youtu.be/B6gd1OECL_8

I have an old colleague who really, really loves Deltic diesels, and their throbbing.

It’s the massive horn that attracts me...

CatMan

ydoethur said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Meanwhile, in the US:

https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738

I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.

That is truly epic.

what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.

Isn't there a theory that Trump didn't want to win in 2016. Maybe he doesn't want to win in 2020?

Foxy

eadric said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/Michael_Heaver/status/1271442430835949569

Because London is led by that appeasing little gnome Sadiq Khan

Hamilton took its statue down earlier today.

https://twitter.com/1NewsNZ/status/1271266008519413760?s=09

ydoethur

eadric said:

India has just recorded its highest daily death toll.

The virus is, now, really kicking in across the 3rd world and the South (as Spanish Flu did, after its initial northern hit)

India, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Pakistan: all are on the steeper part of the upwards curve

This is highly unfortunate as well:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/12/china-annexes-60-square-km-india-ladakh-simmering-tensions-erupt/

If Modi flings blame for Coronavirus on China...

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

I assumed in your case it was because you can’t marry the only things you enjoy riding.

That is a bit close to the knuckle
PS OOOOOH I see now you meant trains

Now I’m intrigued. What did you think I meant?

Nothing inanimate, I assumed that it/they had a pulse as a minimum

Well, I dunno...
https://youtu.be/B6gd1OECL_8

I have an old colleague who really, really loves Deltic diesels, and their throbbing.

It’s the massive horn that attracts me...

Then there’s the whole tunnel thing...

Fishing

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

That you live in a society that hasn't developed marriage yet?

Nigelb

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1271503460106723329

Fishing

eadric said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/Michael_Heaver/status/1271442430835949569

Because London is led by that appeasing little gnome Sadiq Khan

You're being very unfair.

On appeasers.

Nigelb

Obviously one of his better interviews...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1271499018233929728

ydoethur

CatMan said:

ydoethur said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Meanwhile, in the US:

https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738

I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.

That is truly epic.

what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.

Isn't there a theory that Trump didn't want to win in 2016. Maybe he doesn't want to win in 2020?

Who could blame him, given the total clusterfuck he has made of things?

Actually, come to think of it, that would be a very good reason for blaming him.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/IndexCensorship/status/1271412965510701056?s=20

ydoethur

Fishing said:

eadric said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/Michael_Heaver/status/1271442430835949569

Because London is led by that appeasing little gnome Sadiq Khan

You're being very unfair.

On appeasers.

Are you implying that Khan is not an appeaser, merely their Chamberlain?

ydoethur

Nigelb said:

Obviously one of his better interviews...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1271499018233929728

There’s nothing civil about this war.

Peter_the_Punter

CatMan said:

ydoethur said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Meanwhile, in the US:

https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738

I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.

That is truly epic.

what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.

Isn't there a theory that Trump didn't want to win in 2016. Maybe he doesn't want to win in 2020?

I think it's pretty well documented regarding 2016.

He's kind of acting like he doesn't want to win this year. Hard to tell though with someone as dishonest as him exactly what he really wants.

SandyRentool

Tonight's wildlife report: There was a frog in our garage. Now safely released in the woods.

Foxy

Nigelb said:

You mean your school police didn’t have grenade launchers ... ?

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1271504634067120129

Not so daft in a country of school shootings.

Though nothing compared to the armoury at this school speech day...

https://youtu.be/GJ1LG08ssaM

Pulpstar

SandyRentool said:

Tonight's wildlife report: There was a frog in our garage. Now safely released in the woods.

We currently have a pigeon in our garden who has lost his ability to fly.

ydoethur

SandyRentool said:

Tonight's wildlife report: There was a frog in our garage. Now safely released in the woods.

Well, that was a bit silly of you. Unless it had permanent residence, it needed to go through quarantine after arriving from France.

Fishing

ydoethur said:

Fishing said:

eadric said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/Michael_Heaver/status/1271442430835949569

Because London is led by that appeasing little gnome Sadiq Khan

You're being very unfair.

On appeasers.

Are you implying that Khan is not an appeaser, merely their Chamberlain?

More that the better appeasers had a coherent view and end goal, namely a destructive war between the Nazis and the Soviets, whereas Khan is just an incoherent and incompetent panderer.

Mexicanpete

Beibheirli_C said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

Body odour, bad breath, boorish attitude ...

Wouldn't not replacing the toilet seat have been the the clincher for potential Mrs Colstons?

IanB2

eadric said:

Brazil will overtake the UK in death toll over the weekend.

The UK will drop from silver to bronze.

We have 611 deaths per million population, compared to 194 in Brazil. Suggesting Brazil will overtake the UK this weekend is not a sober prediction even by your own sozzled standards.

Peter_the_Punter

Pulpstar said:

SandyRentool said:

Tonight's wildlife report: There was a frog in our garage. Now safely released in the woods.

We currently have a pigeon in our garden who has lost his ability to fly.

Our dog caught a blackbird today. I am not best pleased about this.

She also gave a hedgehog a good shaking but neither creature came to any harm.

IanB2

Pulpstar said:

SandyRentool said:

Tonight's wildlife report: There was a frog in our garage. Now safely released in the woods.

We currently have a pigeon in our garden who has lost his ability to fly.

You could name it Boris?

HYUFD

Foxy said:

eadric said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/Michael_Heaver/status/1271442430835949569

Because London is led by that appeasing little gnome Sadiq Khan

Hamilton took its statue down earlier today.

https://twitter.com/1NewsNZ/status/1271266008519413760?s=09

Quite a few responses to that tweet are not happy, he was not a slave trader but a general in the Maori Wars.

It is a part of New Zealand's history for good or ill

HYUFD

eadric said:

India has just recorded its highest daily death toll.

The virus is, now, really kicking in across the 3rd world and the South (as Spanish Flu did, after its initial northern hit)

India, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Pakistan: all are on the steeper part of the upwards curve

India still not even in the top 10 nations for coronavirus deaths and only 4th on cases despite being the 2nd most populous nation on earth.

Modi still doing well

isam

ydoethur said:

isam said:

ydoethur said:

isam said:

CarlottaVance said:

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380123162476545?s=20

But...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380124970225665?s=20

And....

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380126845075456?s=20

...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.

Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.

Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?

Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.

Blimey.. I wrote a thread about it last Saturday, although it was only up for a ludicrously short while. I HAVE got the figures

For a start, it's only been done, as far as I can see, by IPSOS MORI since 1978, hence "since records began in 1978"

And when those records began, Maggie led Callaghan by between 5-6 points, (29-23 in Sep 78 and 30-25 the following April)

Thanks. Interesting, and also surprising given that as I recall Callaghan had a lead in overall personal ratings.

Actually, sorry that seemed a tad aggressive, I was being dramatic for effect.

The thread was here

https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/06/06/the-case-for-making-personality-ratings-a-good-electoral-indicator/

I think I made a mistake, Howard was not ahead in VI in Sep 04, it was May 04, and a tie in June. Not with IPSOS MORI though. I think the point still stands that he was losing on VI and NS but never on Personality

This is the graph for Blair vs Major, Hague and Howard

Beibheirli_C

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

He died without children - because he never married. What's the oldest reason in the world for men not marrying?

Enlighten us! I'm only 44

Body odour, bad breath, boorish attitude ...

Wouldn't not replacing the toilet seat have been the the clincher for potential Mrs Colstons?

You think they had toilet seats away back then? Thomas Crapper did not gift his massive contribution to mankind until the Mid 1800s

CarlottaVance

Like that's new.....

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1271502863915761671?s=20

LostPassword

CatMan said:

ydoethur said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Meanwhile, in the US:

https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738

I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.

That is truly epic.

what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.

Isn't there a theory that Trump didn't want to win in 2016. Maybe he doesn't want to win in 2020?

There's a good chance that if Trump leaves the White House he will shortly thereafter enter jail.

HYUFD

isam said:

ydoethur said:

isam said:

ydoethur said:

isam said:

CarlottaVance said:

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380123162476545?s=20

But...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380124970225665?s=20

And....

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380126845075456?s=20

...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.

Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.

Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?

Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.

Blimey.. I wrote a thread about it last Saturday, although it was only up for a ludicrously short while. I HAVE got the figures

For a start, it's only been done, as far as I can see, by IPSOS MORI since 1978, hence "since records began in 1978"

And when those records began, Maggie led Callaghan by between 5-6 points, (29-23 in Sep 78 and 30-25 the following April)

Thanks. Interesting, and also surprising given that as I recall Callaghan had a lead in overall personal ratings.

Actually, sorry that seemed a tad aggressive, I was being dramatic for effect.

The thread was here

https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/06/06/the-case-for-making-personality-ratings-a-good-electoral-indicator/

I think I made a mistake, Howard was not ahead in VI in Sep 04, it was May 04, and a tie in June. Not with IPSOS MORI though. I think the point still stands that he was losing on VI and NS but never on Personality

This is the graph for Blair vs Major, Hague and Howard

In France in 2012 the dullard also won when Hollande narrowly beat Sarkozy after 17 years of the left out of power in the Elysee

Andy_JS

"'The science' was right – it was the Government that was wrong
SAGE advisors never suggested a full lockdown - so why are they now trying to rewrite history?

TOBY YOUNG"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/12/science-right-government-wrong/

Luckyguy1983

CarlottaVance said:

Like that's new.....

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1271502863915761671?s=20

Not a good look.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/1271523790149877761?s=20

Surrey

CatMan said:

ydoethur said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Meanwhile, in the US:

https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738

I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.

That is truly epic.

what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.

Isn't there a theory that Trump didn't want to win in 2016. Maybe he doesn't want to win in 2020?

Perhaps he'll show us he's the kind of guy who eventually gets what he wants.

Meanwhile he's trying to stop the subpoenas against his businesses in the Trump International Hotel emoluments case. Not much seems to be going right for him at the moment.

Condoleezza Rice has said he should lay off the tweeting. Has he thought of a nasty playground nickname for her yet?

Foxy

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

eadric said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/Michael_Heaver/status/1271442430835949569

Because London is led by that appeasing little gnome Sadiq Khan

Hamilton took its statue down earlier today.

https://twitter.com/1NewsNZ/status/1271266008519413760?s=09

Quite a few responses to that tweet are not happy, he was not a slave trader but a general in the Maori Wars.

It is a part of New Zealand's history for good or ill

It was only put up in 2013 it seems.

Land rights are a big issue in NZ, and the culture of respect for ancestors of the Maori people means that an insult to ancestors is deeply felt.

stodge

Evening all

Perhaps of more interest from New Zealand than matters statuesque:

https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2020/06/unemployment-crisis-covid-economic-recovery/

A taste of what is happening/will happen here?

Foxy

HYUFD said:

eadric said:

India has just recorded its highest daily death toll.

The virus is, now, really kicking in across the 3rd world and the South (as Spanish Flu did, after its initial northern hit)

India, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Pakistan: all are on the steeper part of the upwards curve

India still not even in the top 10 nations for coronavirus deaths and only 4th on cases despite being the 2nd most populous nation on earth.

Modi still doing well

A 45% drop in quarterly GDP says not.

https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/india-gdp-contract-45-percent-june-quarter-goldman-sachs-forecast-worst-recession-coronavirus-1679138-2020-05-18

CatMan

LostPassword said:

CatMan said:

ydoethur said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Meanwhile, in the US:

https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738

I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.

That is truly epic.

what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.

Isn't there a theory that Trump didn't want to win in 2016. Maybe he doesn't want to win in 2020?

There's a good chance that if Trump leaves the White House he will shortly thereafter enter jail.

He could probably get asylum in Russia...

isam

ydoethur said:

isam said:

ydoethur said:

isam said:

CarlottaVance said:

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380123162476545?s=20

But...

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380124970225665?s=20

And....

https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1271380126845075456?s=20

...and, most important of all, he is 34 points behind on "Personality", the third worst deficit since records began in 1978.

Major beat Kinnock when behind by 12pts in 92, although generally it was even in mid term. That's the only time the perceived dullard has won. He was the incumbent, which might have helped.

Heath was considered more charismatic than Wilson?

Also, I’m not totally sure Thatcher was seen as more charismatic than Callaghan, although I haven’t got definite figures on that.

Blimey.. I wrote a thread about it last Saturday, although it was only up for a ludicrously short while. I HAVE got the figures

For a start, it's only been done, as far as I can see, by IPSOS MORI since 1978, hence "since records began in 1978"

And when those records began, Maggie led Callaghan by between 5-6 points, (29-23 in Sep 78 and 30-25 the following April)

Thanks. Interesting, and also surprising given that as I recall Callaghan had a lead in overall personal ratings.

These are the categories, Maggie vs Callaghan

You're right, he beat her on almost everything... except personalty

Philip_Thompson

CarlottaVance said:

Like that's new.....

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1271502863915761671?s=20

I guess the fact they missed the fact the Joint Committee meeting earlier today where the UK would have had to request an extension if we were going to get one was before their meeting tonight?

Having a meeting at 6pm AFTER the final Joint Committee meeting hardly leaves room to discuss it now, does it? Of all the potential criticisms this really is the lamest.

CarlottaVance

HYUFD said:

eadric said:

India has just recorded its highest daily death toll.

The virus is, now, really kicking in across the 3rd world and the South (as Spanish Flu did, after its initial northern hit)

India, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Pakistan: all are on the steeper part of the upwards curve

Modi still doing well

In ratings, yes. In managing the pandemic, TBC.

Beibheirli_C

Andy_JS said:

"'The science' was right – it was the Government that was wrong
SAGE advisors never suggested a full lockdown - so why are they now trying to rewrite history?

TOBY YOUNG"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/12/science-right-government-wrong/

You know Boris is in trouble when the Telegraph start sticking the knife in ....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/12/britain-ship-fools-heading-rocks

Surrey

LostPassword said:

CatMan said:

ydoethur said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Meanwhile, in the US:

https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1271469493605236738

I can't help feeling there's a bit of a logical flaw in this particular wheeze.

That is truly epic.

what I love is that he hasn’t grasped if he doesn’t use his ballot, that helps the Dems.

Isn't there a theory that Trump didn't want to win in 2016. Maybe he doesn't want to win in 2020?

There's a good chance that if Trump leaves the White House he will shortly thereafter enter jail.

Leave office early and Pence will pardon him. There's a precedent.

CarlottaVance

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

Like that's new.....

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1271502863915761671?s=20

I guess the fact they missed the fact the Joint Committee meeting earlier today where the UK would have had to request an extension if we were going to get one was before their meeting tonight?

Having a meeting at 6pm AFTER the final Joint Committee meeting hardly leaves room to discuss it now, does it? Of all the potential criticisms this really is the lamest.

No detail too trivial
No grievance to unmonger...

ydoethur

stodge said:

Evening all

Perhaps of more interest from New Zealand than matters statuesque:

https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2020/06/unemployment-crisis-covid-economic-recovery/

A taste of what is happening/will happen here?

That is a very, very worrying article.

Beibheirli_C

stodge said:

Evening all

Perhaps of more interest from New Zealand than matters statuesque:

https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2020/06/unemployment-crisis-covid-economic-recovery/

A taste of what is happening/will happen here?

Upcoming woes for the govt.... I had an email today from my old accountant (I am still on his email list it seems) to remind anyone who had taken govt money that the Self-Employed Income Support Scheme (SEISS) is a taxable grant that the Revenue will soon be wanting them repaid in increased tax and NI contributrions.

That should go down well.

CarlottaVance

Beibheirli_C said:

Andy_JS said:

"'The science' was right – it was the Government that was wrong
SAGE advisors never suggested a full lockdown - so why are they now trying to rewrite history?

TOBY YOUNG"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/12/science-right-government-wrong/

You know Boris is in trouble when the Telegraph start sticking the knife in ....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/12/britain-ship-fools-heading-rocks

Both the Mail and the Borisgraph appear to be hedging their bets...

glw

IanB2 said:

eadric said:

Brazil will overtake the UK in death toll over the weekend.

The UK will drop from silver to bronze.

We have 611 deaths per million population, compared to 194 in Brazil. Suggesting Brazil will overtake the UK this weekend is not a sober prediction even by your own sozzled standards.

Sure, but Brazil's on track for exceeding the UK's deaths per million as well. The second half of 2020 will be much worse than the first half.