politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lockdown is over. What next?

On tactics and strategy, does the government have a position on China? Are the Home and Foreign Secretaries singing off the same hymn sheet? Has the Prime Minister said anything about China in the past week?

Ironically it is our close ally and leader of the free world that is killing innocent citizens and taking potshots at journalists on live television.

School reopening is complicated too, leaving aside the problems of social distancing, the number of households being mixed -- two households in the garden, dozens if not hundreds in the playground -- and no need for masks in the classroom, even if they were wanted on the bus to school.

Many of those calling for schools to reopen sooner, as well as those urging delays, might, if they had not been reading all the documents on gov.uk, have been surprised when the Prime Minister told us that it would apply to just a few school years, and not everyone was going back, and even then primary schools would reopen a fortnight before secondary schools (for "some face-to-face contact time", whatever that means, for years 10 and 12 only).

It is hard to see what underlies this timetable, other than a vague desire to do something. How to convince teenagers it is far too dangerous to meet their friends out of school but perfectly safe to meet the same friends at school is left as an exercise for the reader.

If you want an insight into the average person's knowledge and understanding of politics, read this thread in the Politics forum on Digital Spy.

Someone somehow thought that as only 50 MPs can "sit" in the Commons, only 50 MPs will be allowed to vote and thus "Democracy is under threat".

The astonishing thing is that everyone who subsequently posted for the first 15 posts assumed it was true and posted accordingly!

Before anyone ever criticises any politician for repeating very simple messages endlessly, keep this in mind. This is the knowledge level of the average person. Indeed these are people with a particular interest in politics who have chosen to seek out a politics forum.

https://forums.digitalspy.com/discussion/2380690/only-50-mps-allowed-to-vote-on-issues-democracy-under-threat#latest

On "following the science", I think that applies to the early stages of something like this. However, from now on it's politics all the way. I absolutely agree with David that the government should be honest about the long term strategy. Have other governments been honest about this? I seem to recall Merkel made a comment early on that effectively said it was just going to spread. The evidence from South Korea suggests that eradication is not an option.

Again, I don't know what the culture is like in other countries, but we have changed immensely since 1939. We have become a "prizes for all" society. No winners. No losers (though, of course, there are). Bad things happen in life. Government have to take tough decisions. If Johnson did the decent thing and levelled with the public, the outcry from the media would be deafening. Piers Morgan for one would not be able to handle the reality.

Ultimately it all comes back to money. I think the government will delay being honest until they have to start scaling back the bailouts.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This is remarkable

It seems Sage has been responsible for the lockdown delays and mistakes, not the politicians

Sage minutes reveal how UK advisers reacted to coronavirus crisis

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/sage-minutes-reveal-how-uk-advisers-reacted-to-coronavirus-crisis?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

That might encourage the remoaners and tge left to stfu.. would be an own goal.to bang on about it......???

IanB2 said:

The one issue I have with the lead is the assumption that looser lockdown will inevitably and immediately lead to a second wave. I can’t see much evidence that anywhere that has locked down, passed its initial peak, and then unlocked has yet created a significant second wave. The upward trending areas are those that haven’t reached their first peak or never locked down in the first place.

Maybe there’s a seasonal effect, maybe more of us have had it then anyone has yet established, maybe there is some genetic or acquired base level of immunity or resistance? Or maybe a second wave simply needs more time, and some mutation - look how far apart the three waves of 1918/19 were?

Given how infectious this disease is, and given that according to the antibody testing not more than around 10% show signs of having been infected, then there will be a second wave unless something prevents it.

I don't believe contact tracing alone will do it, given the estimate that there are still nearly 8,000 new infections per day. It needs some form of continuing social distancing. The evidence suggests it doesn't need a full lockdown.

But just returning to normal would be catastrophic. In those Sage minutes it mentions the meeting on 16 March when it decided social distancing should be introduced "as soon as possible" rather than just "soon". That meeting was told that at that time there could be "up to 10,000 new cases per day". That is only 30% higher than the current estimate - just 2 or 3 days' growth in normal life.

Jonathan said:

It was only a matter of time before they started blaming the scientists.

Its the fecking Guardian Jonathan. NOTthe daily mail

Hasn’t the strategy always been to flatten the peak to protect the NHS as Covid inevitably works its way through the population? I thought that was made quite clear.

The timing of lockdown lifting is a tactical not a strategic question - we were always going to do it, and it will always carry risks. Similarly, ‘eradicating’ Covid was never a possibility (once it took off in multiple countries outside China) without a vaccine.

I don’t agree there’s no strategy here - I don’t even really see how it’s possible to believe that. I do believe the tactics are being deployed with an eye on the politics not just the science.

I think the saddest thing about the current moment is how lockdown lifting will affect different people so differently (it must be such a worrying prospect if you are In a vulnerable category) - and that the economic devastation coming is getting such scant focus. In two months that will be dominating views of Boris and of govt handling of the crisis.

squareroot2 said:

Jonathan said:

It was only a matter of time before they started blaming the scientists.

Its the fecking Guardian Jonathan. NOTthe daily mail

I think he means the sudden decision to release of the minutes. Until now they have been secret.

IanB2 said:

The one issue I have with the lead is the assumption that looser lockdown will inevitably and immediately lead to a second wave. I can’t see much evidence that anywhere that has locked down, passed its initial peak, and then unlocked has yet created a significant second wave. The upward trending areas are those that haven’t reached their first peak or never locked down in the first place.

Maybe there’s a seasonal effect, maybe more of us have had it then anyone has yet established, maybe there is some genetic or acquired base level of immunity or resistance? Or maybe a second wave simply needs more time, and some mutation - look how far apart the three waves of 1918/19 were?

SAGE was obsessed with the Second Wave even before dealing with the first. I think that the Pandemic Flu plan was followed too long for a disease that isn't flu.

The pattern appears to be a single peak with a long fat tail. I reckon that we will see 100 deaths per day for some months. Social Distancing and effective contact tracing are going to be needed to keep the numbers manageable.

I cannot see Social Distancing working universally now, so many individuals will stay away from areas that do not enforce it. I have my doubts as to the contact tracing will work. Most HSC workers will be off work for a fortnight most months.

Tracing locations to identify spread sites is scientifically good, but I wonder about the legal implications. If the Dog and Duck, or hospital outpatients, is the site of a fatal transmission, then expect legal scrutiny on how effective the SD rules were applied.

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

The one issue I have with the lead is the assumption that looser lockdown will inevitably and immediately lead to a second wave. I can’t see much evidence that anywhere that has locked down, passed its initial peak, and then unlocked has yet created a significant second wave. The upward trending areas are those that haven’t reached their first peak or never locked down in the first place.

Maybe there’s a seasonal effect, maybe more of us have had it then anyone has yet established, maybe there is some genetic or acquired base level of immunity or resistance? Or maybe a second wave simply needs more time, and some mutation - look how far apart the three waves of 1918/19 were?

SAGE was obsessed with the Second Wave even before dealing with the first. I think that the Pandemic Flu plan was followed too long for a disease that isn't flu.

The pattern appears to be a single peak with a long fat tail. I reckon that we will see 100 deaths per day for some months. Social Distancing and effective contact tracing are going to be needed to keep the numbers manageable.

I cannot see Social Distancing working universally now, so many individuals will stay away from areas that do not enforce it. I have my doubts as to the contact tracing will work. Most HSC workers will be off work for a fortnight most months.

Tracing locations to identify spread sites is scientifically good, but I wonder about the legal implications. If the Dog and Duck, or hospital outpatients, is the site of a fatal transmission, then expect legal scrutiny on how effective the SD rules were applied.

I was told last night that one university is very doubtful about having students back on campus for fear of legal repercussions if there were infections.

Jonathan said:

It was only a matter of time before they started blaming the scientists.

With respect have you read the Sage minutes released by the Guardian and posted by me earlier

It is clear from these minutes Sage treated the disease as flu in the early weeks and are responsible for the slow reaction.

Boris, Nicola, Drakesford and Foster followed this advice and it is time to accept that Sage have many questions to answer. The one thing I admire about Nicola is that she admits they got it wrong on Nike conference in Edinburgh, lockdown and care homes. It would have been good if Boris had done the same

Breaking news

A 19 year old has been killed in Detroit after someone drove up in a SUV and started firing into the crowd

It is sickening and the US seem to be on the verge of a full civil war

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This is remarkable

It seems Sage has been responsible for the lockdown delays and mistakes, not the politicians

Sage minutes reveal how UK advisers reacted to coronavirus crisis

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/sage-minutes-reveal-how-uk-advisers-reacted-to-coronavirus-crisis?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

The roles of scientists and politicians are fundamentally different. In particular the scientist decides at the end, once all the evidence is in, whereas the politician needs to decide at the beginning, while there is still time to act.

“Following the science” was always politics, not science. Now it is looking as if they would have been better doing proper politics from the beginning.

I cannot accept any of the politicians could have done anything but to follow Sage advice and these minutes document just how wrong they got it.

squareroot2 said:

Jonathan said:

It was only a matter of time before they started blaming the scientists.

Its the fecking Guardian Jonathan. NOTthe daily mail

It is not even that.

They are the actual Sage minutes and are stark and revealing

Theuniondivvie said:

MikeL said:

If you want an insight into the average person's knowledge and understanding of politics, read this thread in the Politics forum on Digital Spy.

Someone somehow thought that as only 50 MPs can "sit" in the Commons, only 50 MPs will be allowed to vote and thus "Democracy is under threat".

The astonishing thing is that everyone who subsequently posted for the first 15 posts assumed it was true and posted accordingly!

Before anyone ever criticises any politician for repeating very simple messages endlessly, keep this in mind. This is the knowledge level of the average person. Indeed these are people with a particular interest in politics who have chosen to seek out a politics forum.

https://forums.digitalspy.com/discussion/2380690/only-50-mps-allowed-to-vote-on-issues-democracy-under-threat#latest

Since it's still not been clarified how mps will actually vote and the previous digital voting system was arbitrarily terminated, the public can hardly be accused of misunderstanding a very simple message.

Dont be ridiculous.

squareroot2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Jonathan said:

squareroot2 said:

Jonathan said:

It was only a matter of time before they started blaming the scientists.

Its the fecking Guardian Jonathan. NOTthe daily mail

I was talking about you and Big G. You were getting very excited and it’s not even 7.

Morning gloriousness.
It's never too early for a bit of HMG exculpation.

The sainted Nicola will be using it....

Lol II

YouGov

Brits on who has handled the coronavirus outbreak better between England and Scotland:

England: 14%
Scotland: 44%

... anyone with half a brain would know voting would not be restricted to 50mps. Common sense or even instinct would tell you that.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

It was only a matter of time before they started blaming the scientists.

With respect have you read the Sage minutes released by the Guardian and posted by me earlier

It is clear from these minutes Sage treated the disease as flu in the early weeks and are responsible for the slow reaction.

Boris, Nicola, Drakesford and Foster followed this advice and it is time to accept that Sage have many questions to answer. The one thing I admire about Nicola is that she admits they got it wrong on Nike conference in Edinburgh, lockdown and care homes. It would have been good if Boris had done the same

It’s an advisory committee of experts. What government does or doesn’t do with that advice is up to our politicians, who have the power, the responsibility and the accountability. Politicians have questions to answer.

Theuniondivvie said:

squareroot2 said:

MikeL said:

If you want an insight into the average person's knowledge and understanding of politics, read this thread in the Politics forum on Digital Spy.

Someone somehow thought that as only 50 MPs can "sit" in the Commons, only 50 MPs will be allowed to vote and thus "Democracy is under threat".

The astonishing thing is that everyone who subsequently posted for the first 15 posts assumed it was true and posted accordingly!

Before anyone ever criticises any politician for repeating very simple messages endlessly, keep this in mind. This is the knowledge level of the average person. Indeed these are people with a particular interest in politics who have chosen to seek out a politics forum.

https://forums.digitalspy.com/discussion/2380690/only-50-mps-allowed-to-vote-on-issues-democracy-under-threat#latest

I have posted about the intelligence of people before.. i worked with the general public for several.yrs post my office career. If you think joe public is thick. You need to reconsider. Its much worse than just thick...one wonders sometimss how they actually function.

Lol!

One advantage those PB’ers active or previously active in real politics have is a fuller appreciation of the public in all its glory and despair.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Breaking news

A 19 year old has been killed in Detroit after someone drove up in a SUV and started firing into the crowd

It is sickening and the US seem to be on the verge of a full civil war

America has been broken by kind the billionaire funded fake populist right wing politics that is now being practiced here. The US is the country the Right want us to emulate. Where they go we will follow, especially as we have been cut adrift from social democratic Europe.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Breaking news

A 19 year old has been killed in Detroit after someone drove up in a SUV and started firing into the crowd

It is sickening and the US seem to be on the verge of a full civil war

America has been broken by kind the billionaire funded fake populist right wing politics that is now being practiced here. The US is the country the Right want us to emulate. Where they go we will follow, especially as we have been cut adrift from social democratic Europe.

The US is on the verge of a race civil war

This Country is nothing like the US nor will it be

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

It was only a matter of time before they started blaming the scientists.

With respect have you read the Sage minutes released by the Guardian and posted by me earlier

It is clear from these minutes Sage treated the disease as flu in the early weeks and are responsible for the slow reaction.

Boris, Nicola, Drakesford and Foster followed this advice and it is time to accept that Sage have many questions to answer. The one thing I admire about Nicola is that she admits they got it wrong on Nike conference in Edinburgh, lockdown and care homes. It would have been good if Boris had done the same

It’s an advisory committee of experts. What government does or doesn’t do with that advice is up to our politicians, who have the power, the responsibility and the accountability. Politicians have questions to answer.

And the answer for all the leaders is they followed this advice.

None of them would have gone against this advice, nor would you.

The Tories would have invaded Iraq and Labour would have increased tuition fees. But that’s not really the point, is it?

Why deflect the conversation

Do you accept Sage advice as per these minutes was based on flu and was wrong, thereby causing the delay in lockdown

"The other is to manage the herd immunity naturally; to let those sectors of the population most resilient to it go about their business and manage cases among them in an expanded NHS, while shielding the vulnerable. By accident or covert design, it appears that the latter is the road down which the UK is going."


Agree. We are heading towards managed self-segregation, in which the public will be left to judge the balance of risk and reward for itself. Except, of course, for those stuck in hospitals and care homes, who will be at the mercy of the measures (which appear commonly to be wholly ineffectual) deployed to try to protect them. The spectrum of approaches will run from twentysomethings who've now left the family home mixing freely and doing pretty much what they like, through to terrified octogenarians who may well die of old age without ever having left their homes again, with the rest of us floating around at various points in between.

The calculation in Government must be that a certain ongoing death rate can and must be tolerated because another two, three or six months of April-style lockdown is unenforceable, and would lead to total economic collapse even if it could be made to stick. It might well work, although if you are in one of the more vulnerable groups then you're going to be forced, at some point, to consider whether you want to spend the rest of your life imprisoned in a brick box, or if you're going to have to start taking calculated risks for the sake of your sanity.

Another major concern is that the Government may at once be too afraid of lockdown to enforce it properly, and too afraid of unshuttering the wider economy to get around to doing it in time. Thus, we end up with a steady stream of ongoing fatalities and the simultaneous destruction of the bulk of the leisure industry. If we're not going to try very hard to discourage or prevent the fit and healthy under 50s from mixing more freely, then it makes little sense to keep restaurants and cafes forcibly shut until halfway through the Summer and then make them operate under the 2m rule which will drive most of them to the wall anyway. These businesses won't be able to survive off 20% of their tables, and there won't be many takers for the alternative: a romantic dinner inside a perspex cube, with food and empty plates passed in and out on a tray, prison cell style, through a small hatch.

But I suppose this comes back to Herdson's point about the Government's complete lack of leadership on these issues. Leaving private citizens to interpret the rules for themselves a la Cummings, whilst imposing restrictions on businesses that are consistent with an entirely different approach to the epidemic, means that we face sacrificing a lot of people for the wider economic good whilst failing utterly to achieve that aim. Death and suffering in vain, inflicted for no purpose.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Why are barbecues safe Monday but not Sunday, to ask one obvious question?

That applies to loads of regulations though - Why can you drink on your 18th birthday but not the evening before?

squareroot2 said:

... anyone with half a brain would know voting would not be restricted to 50mps. Common sense or even instinct would tell you that.

Not sure common sense is actually that common, and in my experience there is little correlation with intelligence*.

*if Cummings had had more common sense he would had a CYA email in place before heading north.

philiph said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

It was only a matter of time before they started blaming the scientists.

With respect have you read the Sage minutes released by the Guardian and posted by me earlier

It is clear from these minutes Sage treated the disease as flu in the early weeks and are responsible for the slow reaction.

Boris, Nicola, Drakesford and Foster followed this advice and it is time to accept that Sage have many questions to answer. The one thing I admire about Nicola is that she admits they got it wrong on Nike conference in Edinburgh, lockdown and care homes. It would have been good if Boris had done the same

It’s an advisory committee of experts. What government does or doesn’t do with that advice is up to our politicians, who have the power, the responsibility and the accountability. Politicians have questions to answer.

And the answer for all the leaders is they followed this advice.

None of them would have gone against this advice, nor would you.

The Tories would have invaded Iraq and Labour would have increased tuition fees and imposed austerity (lite). But that’s not really the point, is it?

Only if they employed big bad Al.

With 'one of the first politicians to call for an invasion of Iraq' IDS in charge they wouldn't have needed to.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Socky said:

squareroot2 said:

... anyone with half a brain would know voting would not be restricted to 50mps. Common sense or even instinct would tell you that.

Not sure common sense is actually that common, and in my experience there is little correlation with intelligence*.

*if Cummings had had more common sense he would had a CYA email in place before heading north.

Excuse my lack of knowledge but what is a CYA

Cover your arse

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

It was only a matter of time before they started blaming the scientists.

With respect have you read the Sage minutes released by the Guardian and posted by me earlier

It is clear from these minutes Sage treated the disease as flu in the early weeks and are responsible for the slow reaction.

Boris, Nicola, Drakesford and Foster followed this advice and it is time to accept that Sage have many questions to answer. The one thing I admire about Nicola is that she admits they got it wrong on Nike conference in Edinburgh, lockdown and care homes. It would have been good if Boris had done the same

It’s an advisory committee of experts. What government does or doesn’t do with that advice is up to our politicians, who have the power, the responsibility and the accountability. Politicians have questions to answer.

And the answer for all the leaders is they followed this advice.

None of them would have gone against this advice, nor would you.

The Tories would have invaded Iraq and Labour would have increased tuition fees. But that’s not really the point, is it?

Why deflect the conversation

Do you accept Sage advice as per these minutes was based on flu and was wrong, thereby causing the delay in lockdown

I wasn’t deflecting the conversation; I was going directly to the point.

Politicians who make badly advised decisions remain responsible. Even if other politicians in their position would have made precisely the same misjudgement.

Let us see what the public enquiry says

Now who is deflecting!

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

It was only a matter of time before they started blaming the scientists.

With respect have you read the Sage minutes released by the Guardian and posted by me earlier

It is clear from these minutes Sage treated the disease as flu in the early weeks and are responsible for the slow reaction.

Boris, Nicola, Drakesford and Foster followed this advice and it is time to accept that Sage have many questions to answer. The one thing I admire about Nicola is that she admits they got it wrong on Nike conference in Edinburgh, lockdown and care homes. It would have been good if Boris had done the same

It’s an advisory committee of experts. What government does or doesn’t do with that advice is up to our politicians, who have the power, the responsibility and the accountability. Politicians have questions to answer.

And the answer for all the leaders is they followed this advice.

None of them would have gone against this advice, nor would you.

The Tories would have invaded Iraq and Labour would have increased tuition fees. But that’s not really the point, is it?

Why deflect the conversation

Do you accept Sage advice as per these minutes was based on flu and was wrong, thereby causing the delay in lockdown

I wasn’t deflecting the conversation; I was going directly to the point.

Politicians who make badly advised decisions remain responsible. Even if other politicians in their position would have made precisely the same misjudgement.

Let us see what the public enquiry says

Now who is deflecting!

Not really.

Sadly this crisis has been politicised and it needs an independent voice to pronounce on it

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

It was only a matter of time before they started blaming the scientists.

With respect have you read the Sage minutes released by the Guardian and posted by me earlier

It is clear from these minutes Sage treated the disease as flu in the early weeks and are responsible for the slow reaction.

Boris, Nicola, Drakesford and Foster followed this advice and it is time to accept that Sage have many questions to answer. The one thing I admire about Nicola is that she admits they got it wrong on Nike conference in Edinburgh, lockdown and care homes. It would have been good if Boris had done the same

It’s an advisory committee of experts. What government does or doesn’t do with that advice is up to our politicians, who have the power, the responsibility and the accountability. Politicians have questions to answer.

And the answer for all the leaders is they followed this advice.

None of them would have gone against this advice, nor would you.

The Tories would have invaded Iraq and Labour would have increased tuition fees. But that’s not really the point, is it?

Why deflect the conversation

Do you accept Sage advice as per these minutes was based on flu and was wrong, thereby causing the delay in lockdown

Is anyone aware of what the wider world were saying about the virus or what the WHO said? There are other none British experts!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Breaking news

A 19 year old has been killed in Detroit after someone drove up in a SUV and started firing into the crowd

It is sickening and the US seem to be on the verge of a full civil war

America has been broken by kind the billionaire funded fake populist right wing politics that is now being practiced here. The US is the country the Right want us to emulate. Where they go we will follow, especially as we have been cut adrift from social democratic Europe.

The US is on the verge of a race civil war

This Country is nothing like the US nor will it be

The US is where it is because it has followed the policies - dismantling the welfare state, voter suppression, demonising immigrants and minorities, slashing protection at work, underfunding public education and other services and cutting taxes for the wealthy - that are now being followed here. It will have the same result here, it's just that the US is further down that road.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

"if Cummings had had more common sense he would had a CYA email in place before heading north."

Excuse my lack of knowledge but what is a CYA

In a large organisation, if you want to do something a bit questionable, first send an email to lots of important people. Send it at 16:01 (when the big-wigs are on the way home), under a vague subject, and with the controversial bit hidden in a long boring paragraph.

You arse is now covered, as no-one important will want to admit they were too lazy to read their emails.

Socky said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

"if Cummings had had more common sense he would had a CYA email in place before heading north."

Excuse my lack of knowledge but what is a CYA

In a large organisation, if you want to do something a bit questionable, first send an email to lots of important people. Send it at 16:01 (when the big-wigs are on the way home), under a vague subject, and with the controversial bit hidden in a long boring paragraph.

You arse is now covered, as no-one important will want to admit they were too lazy to read their emails.

You'd have made a great local government officer

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Boy, care to cite examples of those things you assert are occurring here?

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Breaking news

A 19 year old has been killed in Detroit after someone drove up in a SUV and started firing into the crowd

It is sickening and the US seem to be on the verge of a full civil war

America has been broken by kind the billionaire funded fake populist right wing politics that is now being practiced here. The US is the country the Right want us to emulate. Where they go we will follow, especially as we have been cut adrift from social democratic Europe.

The US is on the verge of a race civil war

This Country is nothing like the US nor will it be

The US is where it is because it has followed the policies - dismantling the welfare state, voter suppression, demonising immigrants and minorities, slashing protection at work, underfunding public education and other services and cutting taxes for the wealthy - that are now being followed here. It will have the same result here, it's just that the US is further down that road.

Yes and no.

The historical legacy and origins of racism in the US are not the same as ours. So direct comparison will never be reasonable.

Nevertheless the starting point for any hope of resolving inter-community conflict is (as we showed in Northern Ireland) to tackle the underlying discrimination and unfairnesses that fuel the discontent, and to aim toward giving all communities a significant stake in society. So far there appears little recognition of such among those in power in the US.

Black_Rook said:

"The other is to manage the herd immunity naturally; to let those sectors of the population most resilient to it go about their business and manage cases among them in an expanded NHS, while shielding the vulnerable. By accident or covert design, it appears that the latter is the road down which the UK is going."


Agree. We are heading towards managed self-segregation, in which the public will be left to judge the balance of risk and reward for itself. Except, of course, for those stuck in hospitals and care homes, who will be at the mercy of the measures (which appear commonly to be wholly ineffectual) deployed to try to protect them. The spectrum of approaches will run from twentysomethings who've now left the family home mixing freely and doing pretty much what they like, through to terrified octogenarians who may well die of old age without ever having left their homes again, with the rest of us floating around at various points in between.

The calculation in Government must be that a certain ongoing death rate can and must be tolerated because another two, three or six months of April-style lockdown is unenforceable, and would lead to total economic collapse even if it could be made to stick. It might well work, although if you are in one of the more vulnerable groups then you're going to be forced, at some point, to consider whether you want to spend the rest of your life imprisoned in a brick box, or if you're going to have to start taking calculated risks for the sake of your sanity.

Another major concern is that the Government may at once be too afraid of lockdown to enforce it properly, and too afraid of unshuttering the wider economy to get around to doing it in time. Thus, we end up with a steady stream of ongoing fatalities and the simultaneous destruction of the bulk of the leisure industry. If we're not going to try very hard to discourage or prevent the fit and healthy under 50s from mixing more freely, then it makes little sense to keep restaurants and cafes forcibly shut until halfway through the Summer and then make them operate under the 2m rule which will drive most of them to the wall anyway. These businesses won't be able to survive off 20% of their tables, and there won't be many takers for the alternative: a romantic dinner inside a perspex cube, with food and empty plates passed in and out on a tray, prison cell style, through a small hatch.

But I suppose this comes back to Herdson's point about the Government's complete lack of leadership on these issues. Leaving private citizens to interpret the rules for themselves a la Cummings, whilst imposing restrictions on businesses that are consistent with an entirely different approach to the epidemic, means that we face sacrificing a lot of people for the wider economic good whilst failing utterly to achieve that aim. Death and suffering in vain, inflicted for no purpose.

The odd thing is the ease from which many people jump from "We can't stay in lockdown for ever" to "Lift all the restrictions and let everyone do what they like".

Ps what’s an acceptable time to start drinking?

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Boy, care to cite examples of those things you assert are occurring here?

Sure.
Tax cuts for wealthy: cut in top rate of income tax
Voter suppression: trials of voter ID to deal with virtually nonexistent problem of impersonation, which has been shown to disadvantage poor and minorities
Blaming immigrants for problems: entire Leave campaign plus casual racism of Johnson
Attack on labour rights: the 1980s trade union "reforms"
Cuts to welfare state: Universal credit, benefit cap, bedroom tax, all of which have created unprecedented surge in food bank use (another US import)
Brexit: designed to dismantle European style norms of social protection and move us closer to unfettered free market policies of US
Hope this helps.

MarqueeMark said:

Gallowgate said:

Well, exams done! Yesterday was by far the worst one, took me over 15 hours of non-stop work! Hopefully I’ve done okay...

Good luck with the outcome. Although, 15 hours? You'd hope that covers all the bases of finding a snail in a bottle of pop!

If only it was billable!

MarqueeMark said:

Flatten the peak to save the NHS was our response to Covid-19. Pretty much our total response. It did its job. The NHS was never overwhelmed, bar a few local incidents where it seems it came close. Lessons have been learned on how to cope with it, what treatments shorten it, when ventilators help and when the don't. If I'm going to get Covid-19, I'd rather it now than three or four months ago.

The scientists and virologists - the best in the world, we were told - reckoned it could cause 500k UK dead. Maybe just 250k. Neither number is one a Government could see unfold and hope to survive. Industry would have stopped because not enough people would have risked venturing out. Your job - or your life? Easy choice. Shops, pubs, clubs, cinemas - all would have had to close because they would have been losing vast amounts of money, as only the wreckless or Covid-survivors would be venturing out. The Government lockdown gave very considerable structure to what would have occurred ad hoc over maybe 10 days.

And they funded it. Remarkably efficiently, in my opinion, in terms of those who were covered and how quickly it was delivered. A real win for the government's handling. And it will hold the economy's hand until October. At a huge cost (although the current rates of borrowing are being utilised to mean the interest components are currently tiny sums). But there is a structure that tapers, encouraging people to get back to jobs that will largely still be there at the end of this - as long as there is some continuing creative assistance to get them through those next few weeks.

But outside of these structures put in place by our government, defeating Covid as a threat to our normal daily lives is down to people getting information they can use to work around things as they live their lives. If the Chinese study is to be believed - a caveat we now need to make - then of 318 cluster outbreaks studied, only one was outdoors (and that involving just two people). If folk can be confident that simply being outdoors greatly reduces the risk, they can dial down the paranoia that every person they meet could give them this disease.

This is where government needs hard scientific facts. One of the huge frustrations is that it is still very difficult to get reliable information on this simple ask: what activity leads to the greatest risks in getting Covid? Answer that - and we have a much better chance of doing more than just taking baby steps towards saving livelihoods.

Very good.
Where can I read about the Chinese study?

The government's current approach lacks a clear message. It favours prescriptive rules ('6 people') that sound arbitrary over principles people can understand and apply.

Surely we need the following:

1) Continue to socially distance with other households
2) Avoid confined spaces - outside is better
3) Do not gather in large groups or crowds - risk of 'super spreader events'
4) Wear masks in public
5) Protect vulnerable members of society by being more careful in general if you come into contact with them

The complete absence of a policy of mask wearing is particularly bizarre at this stage. I understood earlier on when PPE was at critical levels, but it is surely an 'easy win' in terms of reducing R if we can make that the norm.

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

It was only a matter of time before they started blaming the scientists.

With respect have you read the Sage minutes released by the Guardian and posted by me earlier

It is clear from these minutes Sage treated the disease as flu in the early weeks and are responsible for the slow reaction.

Boris, Nicola, Drakesford and Foster followed this advice and it is time to accept that Sage have many questions to answer. The one thing I admire about Nicola is that she admits they got it wrong on Nike conference in Edinburgh, lockdown and care homes. It would have been good if Boris had done the same

It’s an advisory committee of experts. What government does or doesn’t do with that advice is up to our politicians, who have the power, the responsibility and the accountability. Politicians have questions to answer.

And the answer for all the leaders is they followed this advice.

None of them would have gone against this advice, nor would you.

The Tories would have invaded Iraq and Labour would have increased tuition fees. But that’s not really the point, is it?

Why deflect the conversation

Do you accept Sage advice as per these minutes was based on flu and was wrong, thereby causing the delay in lockdown

Is anyone aware of what the wider world were saying about the virus or what the WHO said? There are other none British experts!

I expect Sage were required to account for the wider picture but it does seem they got it all wrong. Did you read their minutes published today because they are very enlightening and worrying at how they got it so wrong

Mr. Gate, best of luck.

Mr. Boy, thanks.

To go through them:


"tax cuts for wealthy: cut in top rate of income tax" -
this partially reversed a last ditch hike by Labour. The rate remains 5% higher than it was for almost the entirety of the Labour period. Also, when the rate itself was higher the tax take was lower. Tax policy should be governed by generating revenue, not vindictively seeking to harm the wealthy. Public good trumps private harm.

"Voter suppression: trials of voter ID to deal with virtually nonexistent problem of impersonation, which has been shown to disadvantage poor and minorities" -
there are dozens of acceptable forms of ID including requesting a special one, free of charge, from the local council. Photo ID has been used, I believe, in Northern Ireland for many years.

"Blaming immigrants for problems: entire Leave campaign plus casual racism of Johnson" - rather vague. One might as well claim all Remainers are traitors. Perhaps we can agree Johnson is a moron?

"Attack on labour rights: the 1980s trade union "reforms"" -
Unions have no right to hold the country to ransom.

"Cuts to welfare state: Universal credit, benefit cap, bedroom tax, all of which have created unprecedented surge in food bank use (another US import)" -
Universal credit is underfunded and the six week limit ridiculous. It should be changed in its execution. Simplifying the benefits system, however, is a very good thing. A benefit cap of £26,000 is absolutely fine and there's no reason the taxpayer should be throwing more than that at people who aren't working (additional money for those who are ill is another matter although I'd guess that would mostly come via NHS resources). The bedroom tax wasn't a tax, it was reduced benefits, and didn't happen in private housing for years with nobody caring? Food banks began in this country under Blair during the boom years and have risen consistently ever since. Their proliferation cannot be laid at any particular set of policies.

"Brexit: designed to dismantle European style norms of social protection and move us closer to unfettered free market policies of US" -
If we had the European norm on benefits it would mean shifting to a contribution model, and if we adopted likewise their maternity leave it would mean the current amount being cut in half.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Breaking news

A 19 year old has been killed in Detroit after someone drove up in a SUV and started firing into the crowd

It is sickening and the US seem to be on the verge of a full civil war

America has been broken by kind the billionaire funded fake populist right wing politics that is now being practiced here. The US is the country the Right want us to emulate. Where they go we will follow, especially as we have been cut adrift from social democratic Europe.

The US is on the verge of a race civil war

This Country is nothing like the US nor will it be

The US is where it is because it has followed the policies - dismantling the welfare state, voter suppression, demonising immigrants and minorities, slashing protection at work, underfunding public education and other services and cutting taxes for the wealthy - that are now being followed here. It will have the same result here, it's just that the US is further down that road.

I simply reject that but it is your view

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Gate, best of luck.

Mr. Boy, thanks.

To go through them:


"tax cuts for wealthy: cut in top rate of income tax" -
this partially reversed a last ditch hike by Labour. The rate remains 5% higher than it was for almost the entirety of the Labour period. Also, when the rate itself was higher the tax take was lower. Tax policy should be governed by generating revenue, not vindictively seeking to harm the wealthy. Public good trumps private harm.

"Voter suppression: trials of voter ID to deal with virtually nonexistent problem of impersonation, which has been shown to disadvantage poor and minorities" -
there are dozens of acceptable forms of ID including requesting a special one, free of charge, from the local council. Photo ID has been used, I believe, in Northern Ireland for many years.

"Blaming immigrants for problems: entire Leave campaign plus casual racism of Johnson" - rather vague. One might as well claim all Remainers are traitors. Perhaps we can agree Johnson is a moron?

"Attack on labour rights: the 1980s trade union "reforms"" -
Unions have no right to hold the country to ransom.

"Cuts to welfare state: Universal credit, benefit cap, bedroom tax, all of which have created unprecedented surge in food bank use (another US import)" -
Universal credit is underfunded and the six week limit ridiculous. It should be changed in its execution. Simplifying the benefits system, however, is a very good thing. A benefit cap of £26,000 is absolutely fine and there's no reason the taxpayer should be throwing more than that at people who aren't working (additional money for those who are ill is another matter although I'd guess that would mostly come via NHS resources). The bedroom tax wasn't a tax, it was reduced benefits, and didn't happen in private housing for years with nobody caring? Food banks began in this country under Blair during the boom years and have risen consistently ever since. Their proliferation cannot be laid at any particular set of policies.

"Brexit: designed to dismantle European style norms of social protection and move us closer to unfettered free market policies of US" -
If we had the European norm on benefits it would mean shifting to a contribution model, and if we adopted likewise their maternity leave it would mean the current amount being cut in half.

Excellent rebuttall and fair

squareroot2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Jonathan said:

squareroot2 said:

Jonathan said:

It was only a matter of time before they started blaming the scientists.

Its the fecking Guardian Jonathan. NOTthe daily mail

I was talking about you and Big G. You were getting very excited and it’s not even 7.

Morning gloriousness.
It's never too early for a bit of HMG exculpation.

The sainted Nicola will be using it....

Have to say when you listen to her daily update compared to the bumbling garbage Westminster one you really do see the difference between a politician on top of their job versus lying bumbling useless toerags. The difference is amazing.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Breaking news

A 19 year old has been killed in Detroit after someone drove up in a SUV and started firing into the crowd

It is sickening and the US seem to be on the verge of a full civil war

America has been broken by kind the billionaire funded fake populist right wing politics that is now being practiced here. The US is the country the Right want us to emulate. Where they go we will follow, especially as we have been cut adrift from social democratic Europe.

The US is on the verge of a race civil war

This Country is nothing like the US nor will it be

The US is where it is because it has followed the policies - dismantling the welfare state, voter suppression, demonising immigrants and minorities, slashing protection at work, underfunding public education and other services and cutting taxes for the wealthy - that are now being followed here. It will have the same result here, it's just that the US is further down that road.

I simply reject that but it is your view

Have to say I totally agree with that, we are on the wrong track altogether and sooner Scotland is out of it the better.

Genuine question - what happened to that graph with one 'blip' in hospital cases on it?

It has not shown up in the gov.uk slides so I was wondering if there was a more complete story behind it?