We had a strategy, like it or not, for just a few days, after the first press conference and ‘herd immunity’. Briefly, it did then appear that someone had given thought as to how this could end and had done some working backwards to establish credible first steps, even if the analysis was (probably) flawed.
Since that being abandoned after the Imperial modelling, the government’s response has been tactical, variable, contradictory, and too late. Testing was critical (remember the drive-in centres?), then unimportant (no test even with symptoms), now it is critical again.
The first batch of returning travellers from the cruise ship were transported by men in hazmat suits and held in the Wirral for a fortnight. Thereafter people could walk into the country as they pleased, even flying in from known hotspots. Now we are introducing quarantine just as we need it least. Except there are already signs that it won’t happen, or won’t happen for very long.
Not to mention the vague, contradictory and ever shifting policy on lockdown itself, or the confused alert system where even at launch the PM couldn’t decide whether we were at level three or level four.
The one issue I have with the lead is the assumption that looser lockdown will inevitably and immediately lead to a second wave. I can’t see much evidence that anywhere that has locked down, passed its initial peak, and then unlocked has yet created a significant second wave. The upward trending areas are those that haven’t reached their first peak or never locked down in the first place.
Maybe there’s a seasonal effect, maybe more of us have had it then anyone has yet established, maybe there is some genetic or acquired base level of immunity or resistance? Or maybe a second wave simply needs more time, and some mutation - look how far apart the three waves of 1918/19 were?
"Not to mention the vague, contradictory and ever shifting policy on lockdown itself, or the confused alert system where even at launch the PM couldn’t decide whether we were at level three or level four."
"tax cuts for wealthy: cut in top rate of income tax" - this partially reversed a last ditch hike by Labour. The rate remains 5% higher than it was for almost the entirety of the Labour period. Also, when the rate itself was higher the tax take was lower. Tax policy should be governed by generating revenue, not vindictively seeking to harm the wealthy. Public good trumps private harm.
"Voter suppression: trials of voter ID to deal with virtually nonexistent problem of impersonation, which has been shown to disadvantage poor and minorities" - there are dozens of acceptable forms of ID including requesting a special one, free of charge, from the local council. Photo ID has been used, I believe, in Northern Ireland for many years.
"Blaming immigrants for problems: entire Leave campaign plus casual racism of Johnson" - rather vague. One might as well claim all Remainers are traitors. Perhaps we can agree Johnson is a moron?
"Attack on labour rights: the 1980s trade union "reforms"" - Unions have no right to hold the country to ransom.
"Cuts to welfare state: Universal credit, benefit cap, bedroom tax, all of which have created unprecedented surge in food bank use (another US import)" - Universal credit is underfunded and the six week limit ridiculous. It should be changed in its execution. Simplifying the benefits system, however, is a very good thing. A benefit cap of £26,000 is absolutely fine and there's no reason the taxpayer should be throwing more than that at people who aren't working (additional money for those who are ill is another matter although I'd guess that would mostly come via NHS resources). The bedroom tax wasn't a tax, it was reduced benefits, and didn't happen in private housing for years with nobody caring? Food banks began in this country under Blair during the boom years and have risen consistently ever since. Their proliferation cannot be laid at any particular set of policies.
"Brexit: designed to dismantle European style norms of social protection and move us closer to unfettered free market policies of US" - If we had the European norm on benefits it would mean shifting to a contribution model, and if we adopted likewise their maternity leave it would mean the current amount being cut in half.
MD , I will only comment on one point , the £26K cap. It is hard to imagine how it can be fair to get £26K on benefits whereas huge amounts of people work for minimum wage. Maximum level should be minimum wage.
"Prof Drosten said a policy of tracking and tracing is key, but warned that testing all those who have been in contact with an infected person can be too slow.
“The latest analysis shows clearly you don't start testing all possible contacts. That will always be too late. Instead, all contacts need to be isolated. But for a week, not 14 days.”
This is the definition of focusing on the superficial, but I have become fairly convinced it's a wig. That of course is by no means an issue - very sensible I'd say. I don't see that it can indicate a health issue because Nicola has been incredibly, exhaustingly active over this time. Unless it's alopecia, which if it is, must have been incredibly alarming for her when it happened.
I suppose we should be thankful (most of us) that we don't live in the USA, where it seems a significant section of the population spurns social distancing as a matter of political principle, has an almost religious fervour for hydroxychloroquine and considers "v*ccine" a swear word.
A 19 year old has been killed in Detroit after someone drove up in a SUV and started firing into the crowd
It is sickening and the US seem to be on the verge of a full civil war
America has been broken by kind the billionaire funded fake populist right wing politics that is now being practiced here. The US is the country the Right want us to emulate. Where they go we will follow, especially as we have been cut adrift from social democratic Europe.
Leave off. Who is this so-called "Right" that wants us to descend into a gun culture race war? Name names - or look an over-reacting pillock.
I lived in the US for five years. The tactics of the Right in the UK are quite clearly now based on those of the Republicans, most evident in the Brexit campaign where Leave ran on an anti-immigrant anti-"elite" platform exactly in line with a US style culture war tactic. We share big problems of racism with the US, especially around policing and criminal justice. Luckily we don't have the same gun problem, but you will note I never said we did.
They always point to a squirrel rather than answer the question.
A 19 year old has been killed in Detroit after someone drove up in a SUV and started firing into the crowd
It is sickening and the US seem to be on the verge of a full civil war
America has been broken by kind the billionaire funded fake populist right wing politics that is now being practiced here. The US is the country the Right want us to emulate. Where they go we will follow, especially as we have been cut adrift from social democratic Europe.
The US is on the verge of a race civil war
This Country is nothing like the US nor will it be
The US is where it is because it has followed the policies - dismantling the welfare state, voter suppression, demonising immigrants and minorities, slashing protection at work, underfunding public education and other services and cutting taxes for the wealthy - that are now being followed here. It will have the same result here, it's just that the US is further down that road.
It has also gerrymandered the voting system. Haven't seen any evidence of that here, yet.
A 19 year old has been killed in Detroit after someone drove up in a SUV and started firing into the crowd
It is sickening and the US seem to be on the verge of a full civil war
America has been broken by kind the billionaire funded fake populist right wing politics that is now being practiced here. The US is the country the Right want us to emulate. Where they go we will follow, especially as we have been cut adrift from social democratic Europe.
Leave off. Who is this so-called "Right" that wants us to descend into a gun culture race war? Name names - or look an over-reacting pillock.
I lived in the US for five years. The tactics of the Right in the UK are quite clearly now based on those of the Republicans, most evident in the Brexit campaign where Leave ran on an anti-immigrant anti-"elite" platform exactly in line with a US style culture war tactic. We share big problems of racism with the US, especially around policing and criminal justice. Luckily we don't have the same gun problem, but you will note I never said we did.
There's nothing particularly American about anti-immigrant campaigns - we and other European countries had them long before the United States was a country, or even discovered.
And the left is much more anti-"elite" than the right - they just use different terminology, and focus on different parts of the elite (business vs public sector).
I'm afraid if you accept universal suffrage, or indeed any form of democracy, politicians will try and get votes. And, like salesmen, they will adapt their tactics to what sells.
"tax cuts for wealthy: cut in top rate of income tax" - this partially reversed a last ditch hike by Labour. The rate remains 5% higher than it was for almost the entirety of the Labour period. Also, when the rate itself was higher the tax take was lower. Tax policy should be governed by generating revenue, not vindictively seeking to harm the wealthy. Public good trumps private harm.
"Voter suppression: trials of voter ID to deal with virtually nonexistent problem of impersonation, which has been shown to disadvantage poor and minorities" - there are dozens of acceptable forms of ID including requesting a special one, free of charge, from the local council. Photo ID has been used, I believe, in Northern Ireland for many years.
"Blaming immigrants for problems: entire Leave campaign plus casual racism of Johnson" - rather vague. One might as well claim all Remainers are traitors. Perhaps we can agree Johnson is a moron?
"Attack on labour rights: the 1980s trade union "reforms"" - Unions have no right to hold the country to ransom.
"Cuts to welfare state: Universal credit, benefit cap, bedroom tax, all of which have created unprecedented surge in food bank use (another US import)" - Universal credit is underfunded and the six week limit ridiculous. It should be changed in its execution. Simplifying the benefits system, however, is a very good thing. A benefit cap of £26,000 is absolutely fine and there's no reason the taxpayer should be throwing more than that at people who aren't working (additional money for those who are ill is another matter although I'd guess that would mostly come via NHS resources). The bedroom tax wasn't a tax, it was reduced benefits, and didn't happen in private housing for years with nobody caring? Food banks began in this country under Blair during the boom years and have risen consistently ever since. Their proliferation cannot be laid at any particular set of policies.
"Brexit: designed to dismantle European style norms of social protection and move us closer to unfettered free market policies of US" - If we had the European norm on benefits it would mean shifting to a contribution model, and if we adopted likewise their maternity leave it would mean the current amount being cut in half.
MD , I will only comment on one point , the £26K cap. It is hard to imagine how it can be fair to get £26K on benefits whereas huge amounts of people work for minimum wage. Maximum level should be minimum wage.
This is a big issue, if you aren't working why should you be subsidised to live in an area (say zone 2/3 London) that working people cannot afford.
The government's current approach lacks a clear message. It favours prescriptive rules ('6 people') that sound arbitrary over principles people can understand and apply.
Surely we need the following:
1) Continue to socially distance with other households 2) Avoid confined spaces - outside is better 3) Do not gather in large groups or crowds - risk of 'super spreader events' 4) Wear masks in public 5) Protect vulnerable members of society by being more careful in general if you come into contact with them
The complete absence of a policy of mask wearing is particularly bizarre at this stage. I understood earlier on when PPE was at critical levels, but it is surely an 'easy win' in terms of reducing R if we can make that the norm.
Masks are pointless in outdoor settings. I think that people would wear them to do the shopping, because a modest number already do of course, but if we're embarking down that route it needs to be demanded by regulation.
When Government first changed the advice to suggest that masks might be a good idea for indoor settings I wore one to Tesco. Given that it was (a) a bit of a faff (the wretched thing started falling to pieces when I tried to adjust it because it was getting uncomfortable) and (b) 95% of the rest of the customers couldn't be arsed to begin with, I did not repeat the experiment. And why would you, if hardly anybody else is bothering?
The latest survey data that appeared on the slides at yesterday's briefing suggested that "29% of adults used a face covering when outside their home." A case of people telling pollsters what they think they want to hear (or will make them look good) if ever there was one. Where is this near-third of the population that's walking around in masks? It's patently bollocks.
I'd say it's, at most, one in ten and they tend to be disproportionately worn by older people with obvious health conditions.
I've heard this US civil war thing many times before.
I suspect there will be nasty riots, some deaths, many more nasty injuries and a fair bit of wanton damage to property in a number of major cities for several weeks.
It will then gradually peter out and return to politics as normal.
I think a bigger problem is simply US styles of policing, which is quite aggressive, stern and trigger happy.
I don't know how you change that in a society where almost anyone could be carrying a gun.
The government's current approach lacks a clear message. It favours prescriptive rules ('6 people') that sound arbitrary over principles people can understand and apply.
Surely we need the following:
1) Continue to socially distance with other households 2) Avoid confined spaces - outside is better 3) Do not gather in large groups or crowds - risk of 'super spreader events' 4) Wear masks in public 5) Protect vulnerable members of society by being more careful in general if you come into contact with them
The complete absence of a policy of mask wearing is particularly bizarre at this stage. I understood earlier on when PPE was at critical levels, but it is surely an 'easy win' in terms of reducing R if we can make that the norm.
Masks are pointless in outdoor settings. I think that people would wear them to do the shopping, because a modest number already do of course, but if we're embarking down that route it needs to be demanded by regulation.
When Government first changed the advice to suggest that masks might be a good idea for indoor settings I wore one to Tesco. Given that it was (a) a bit of a faff (the wretched thing started falling to pieces when I tried to adjust it because it was getting uncomfortable) and (b) 95% of the rest of the customers couldn't be arsed to begin with, I did not repeat the experiment. And why would you, if hardly anybody else is bothering?
The latest survey data that appeared on the slides at yesterday's briefing suggested that "29% of adults used a face covering when outside their home." A case of people telling pollsters what they think they want to hear (or will make them look good) if ever there was one. Where is this near-third of the population that's walking around in masks? It's patently bollocks.
'Where is this near-third of the population that's walking around in masks? It's patently bollocks.' Certainly is in this neck of the woods. Very rare to see anyone in one. Including me, although I do wear one when going to the pharmacy.
However my half-Thai grandchildren are not being allowed back to (private) school without one. Eldest of that set of granddaughters (14) wants a Gucci-designed one!
This is the definition of focusing on the superficial, but I have become fairly convinced it's a wig. That of course is by no means an issue - very sensible I'd say. I don't see that it can indicate a health issue because Nicola has been incredibly, exhaustingly active over this time. Unless it's alopecia, which if it is, must have been incredibly alarming for her when it happened.
Or maybe she is just good at doing her own hair. It is on her head, she gets to practice every day.
It was only a matter of time before they started blaming the scientists.
With respect have you read the Sage minutes released by the Guardian and posted by me earlier
It is clear from these minutes Sage treated the disease as flu in the early weeks and are responsible for the slow reaction.
Boris, Nicola, Drakesford and Foster followed this advice and it is time to accept that Sage have many questions to answer. The one thing I admire about Nicola is that she admits they got it wrong on Nike conference in Edinburgh, lockdown and care homes. It would have been good if Boris had done the same
It’s an advisory committee of experts. What government does or doesn’t do with that advice is up to our politicians, who have the power, the responsibility and the accountability. Politicians have questions to answer.
And the answer for all the leaders is they followed this advice.
None of them would have gone against this advice, nor would you.
The Tories would have invaded Iraq and Labour would have increased tuition fees. But that’s not really the point, is it?
Why deflect the conversation
Do you accept Sage advice as per these minutes was based on flu and was wrong, thereby causing the delay in lockdown
Is anyone aware of what the wider world were saying about the virus or what the WHO said? There are other none British experts!
This the result of the idiot Brexiteers wanting to prove they knew better than those stupid Europeans and other assorted foreigners, sovereign with better experts and would show them how great. As we all know they are morons and we see the end result , a month to prepare and they follow a strategy for flu.
Masks are pointless in outdoor settings. I think that people would wear them to do the shopping, because a modest number already do of course, but if we're embarking down that route it needs to be demanded by regulation.
When Government first changed the advice to suggest that masks might be a good idea for indoor settings I wore one to Tesco. Given that it was (a) a bit of a faff (the wretched thing started falling to pieces when I tried to adjust it because it was getting uncomfortable) and (b) 95% of the rest of the customers couldn't be arsed to begin with, I did not repeat the experiment. And why would you, if hardly anybody else is bothering?
We are in a mess. The price of the lockdown, economically, is overwhelming and unsustainable. We need to get back to work as a nation. It has to be remembered that even flat out we have not earned enough to sustain our standard of living for a lot of years. There is very little fat left on the bones.
But, OTOH, we have none of the pieces in place to deal with the virus in anything like normal existence. The testing regime probably still does not have sufficient capacity, it is certainly nowhere near fast enough, the staff who are going to deal with test and trace are still being employed, are yet to be organised and don't have technology such as the App to assist.
So do we wait? We can't afford to. We must muddle along as best as we can using social distancing, handwashing, gels and face masks in the hope that the R rate is kept at or ideally below 1 and we gradually open up more and more of our economy and economic activity watching anxiously in a distant mirror darkly which at best tells us what was happening 2-3 weeks ago.
It's not great and the government has not covered itself in glory. Testing capacity was not increased fast enough, the anti-body testing was massively too slow because of an obsession with accuracy which is important in the individual case but not so much in the big picture, obvious mistakes were made in the App development, we haven't learned enough from other country's mistakes and successes, for all the statistical fog we have clearly suffered more deaths than most and there is much more death to come.
"if Cummings had had more common sense he would had a CYA email in place before heading north."
Excuse my lack of knowledge but what is a CYA
In a large organisation, if you want to do something a bit questionable, first send an email to lots of important people. Send it at 16:01 (when the big-wigs are on the way home), under a vague subject, and with the controversial bit hidden in a long boring paragraph.
You arse is now covered, as no-one important will want to admit they were too lazy to read their emails.
There are lots of things which may be the intention but cannot possibly be stated by government. For all I know liberal abortion laws exist as an exercise in keeping the numbers down or as a rough and ready sort of class eugenics, but if that were the case I am not not going to be told so.
Same here. If herd immunity is the strategy government is not going to say so. As it is quite possible - we shall find out - that it's the only policy available, government is not in an easy position with regard to truth telling.
No need to apologise though. It was a decent enough call. I made the same mistake for the same reason.
Agree, it was hard to imagine that Boris would burn so many bridges saving such an idiot as Cummings.
Cummings isn't an idiot, Malc, but one positive from the sorry episode is that he has dismantled the myth that he is some kind of towering intellect.
You didn't need to be particularly clever or subtle to come up with a better cover story than his. As for common sense, the journey to Barnard Castle showed a complete lack.
He might actually have got away with the whole thing but for the BC adventure but it was such a transparent lie that you had to wonder whether the whole account was a complete work of fiction, starting with Mary's 'illness' and the late nite drive to Durham.
Masks are pointless in outdoor settings. I think that people would wear them to do the shopping, because a modest number already do of course, but if we're embarking down that route it needs to be demanded by regulation.
When Government first changed the advice to suggest that masks might be a good idea for indoor settings I wore one to Tesco. Given that it was (a) a bit of a faff (the wretched thing started falling to pieces when I tried to adjust it because it was getting uncomfortable) and (b) 95% of the rest of the customers couldn't be arsed to begin with, I did not repeat the experiment. And why would you, if hardly anybody else is bothering?
This is the definition of focusing on the superficial, but I have become fairly convinced it's a wig. That of course is by no means an issue - very sensible I'd say. I don't see that it can indicate a health issue because Nicola has been incredibly, exhaustingly active over this time. Unless it's alopecia, which if it is, must have been incredibly alarming for her when it happened.
Or maybe she is just good at doing her own hair. It is on her head, she gets to practice every day.
A 19 year old has been killed in Detroit after someone drove up in a SUV and started firing into the crowd
It is sickening and the US seem to be on the verge of a full civil war
America has been broken by kind the billionaire funded fake populist right wing politics that is now being practiced here. The US is the country the Right want us to emulate. Where they go we will follow, especially as we have been cut adrift from social democratic Europe.
The US is on the verge of a race civil war
This Country is nothing like the US nor will it be
I watched the coverage of the CNN crew being arrested by "faceless" police who were standing around looking like Imperial Startroopers in all their amour. It looked like a battlefield, not like a town centre. My only thought was that thankfully I do not live there.
Increasingly, it seems, the best thing about America is the 3,000 miles of ocean between them and us...
I've heard this US civil war thing many times before.
I suspect there will be nasty riots, some deaths, many more nasty injuries and a fair bit of wanton damage to property in a number of major cities for several weeks.
It will then gradually peter out and return to politics as normal.
I think a bigger problem is simply US styles of policing, which is quite aggressive, stern and trigger happy.
I don't know how you change that in a society where almost anyone could be carrying a gun.
If they're sensible they'll be finding a way to quietly back down over Hong Kong whilst saving face. Probably by rewriting aspects of the proposed security law or delaying it again by kicking it into the long grass.
If they're not sensible they'll escalate the trade wars.
This is the definition of focusing on the superficial, but I have become fairly convinced it's a wig. That of course is by no means an issue - very sensible I'd say. I don't see that it can indicate a health issue because Nicola has been incredibly, exhaustingly active over this time. Unless it's alopecia, which if it is, must have been incredibly alarming for her when it happened.
Or maybe she is just good at doing her own hair. It is on her head, she gets to practice every day.
Yes, of course. And it's not really a source of criticism as far as I am concerned, I think people like to see their statespeople looking well turned out.
A 19 year old has been killed in Detroit after someone drove up in a SUV and started firing into the crowd
It is sickening and the US seem to be on the verge of a full civil war
America has been broken by kind the billionaire funded fake populist right wing politics that is now being practiced here. The US is the country the Right want us to emulate. Where they go we will follow, especially as we have been cut adrift from social democratic Europe.
Leave off. Who is this so-called "Right" that wants us to descend into a gun culture race war? Name names - or look an over-reacting pillock.
I lived in the US for five years. The tactics of the Right in the UK are quite clearly now based on those of the Republicans, most evident in the Brexit campaign where Leave ran on an anti-immigrant anti-"elite" platform exactly in line with a US style culture war tactic. We share big problems of racism with the US, especially around policing and criminal justice. Luckily we don't have the same gun problem, but you will note I never said we did.
Yes, clearly there are local adaptions, but importing the US culture war ethos has occurred here, and in a number of other countries. The toxic legacy of slavery and gun culture is obviously different, and the presence there of a superficial Evangelical Christianity that skips the real fundamentals.
There are many common strands though. A wealthy elite persuading blue collar folk to vote to defund the state by pushing social intolerance.
The Trumpites have a very conformist view of what it takes to be a patriotic American, just as we see here. If you see Europe as friends, neighbours and family, that is unpatriotic, if you find Poppyism and the WW1 and WW2 obsession a turn off, that is unpatriotic. If you think freedom means diversity and other people living differently in your town, that is unpatriotic etc etc...
Flatten the peak to save the NHS was our response to Covid-19. Pretty much our total response. It did its job. The NHS was never overwhelmed, bar a few local incidents where it seems it came close. Lessons have been learned on how to cope with it, what treatments shorten it, when ventilators help and when the don't. If I'm going to get Covid-19, I'd rather it now than three or four months ago.
The scientists and virologists - the best in the world, we were told - reckoned it could cause 500k UK dead. Maybe just 250k. Neither number is one a Government could see unfold and hope to survive. Industry would have stopped because not enough people would have risked venturing out. Your job - or your life? Easy choice. Shops, pubs, clubs, cinemas - all would have had to close because they would have been losing vast amounts of money, as only the wreckless or Covid-survivors would be venturing out. The Government lockdown gave very considerable structure to what would have occurred ad hoc over maybe 10 days.
And they funded it. Remarkably efficiently, in my opinion, in terms of those who were covered and how quickly it was delivered. A real win for the government's handling. And it will hold the economy's hand until October. At a huge cost (although the current rates of borrowing are being utilised to mean the interest components are currently tiny sums). But there is a structure that tapers, encouraging people to get back to jobs that will largely still be there at the end of this - as long as there is some continuing creative assistance to get them through those next few weeks.
But outside of these structures put in place by our government, defeating Covid as a threat to our normal daily lives is down to people getting information they can use to work around things as they live their lives. If the Chinese study is to be believed - a caveat we now need to make - then of 318 cluster outbreaks studied, only one was outdoors (and that involving just two people). If folk can be confident that simply being outdoors greatly reduces the risk, they can dial down the paranoia that every person they meet could give them this disease.
This is where government needs hard scientific facts. One of the huge frustrations is that it is still very difficult to get reliable information on this simple ask: what activity leads to the greatest risks in getting Covid? Answer that - and we have a much better chance of doing more than just taking baby steps towards saving livelihoods.
Good post, regarding the last two paragraphs public perception of risk is a problem that needs addressing. Simple information, such as the the virus survival rates (overall and by age cohort), viral load and the significant falls in daily deaths, are not known by many people. People need to be "unfrightened".
Masks are pointless in outdoor settings. I think that people would wear them to do the shopping, because a modest number already do of course, but if we're embarking down that route it needs to be demanded by regulation.
When Government first changed the advice to suggest that masks might be a good idea for indoor settings I wore one to Tesco. Given that it was (a) a bit of a faff (the wretched thing started falling to pieces when I tried to adjust it because it was getting uncomfortable) and (b) 95% of the rest of the customers couldn't be arsed to begin with, I did not repeat the experiment. And why would you, if hardly anybody else is bothering?
WTF is wrong with you
Why are you being rude?
I sympathise with her point of view.
Put yourself in a little bit of danger, put other people in a bigger bit a more danger, and insist that for you not to be an idiot, you need the government to *force* you to not to be an idiot.
The government's current approach lacks a clear message. It favours prescriptive rules ('6 people') that sound arbitrary over principles people can understand and apply.
Surely we need the following:
1) Continue to socially distance with other households 2) Avoid confined spaces - outside is better 3) Do not gather in large groups or crowds - risk of 'super spreader events' 4) Wear masks in public 5) Protect vulnerable members of society by being more careful in general if you come into contact with them
The complete absence of a policy of mask wearing is particularly bizarre at this stage. I understood earlier on when PPE was at critical levels, but it is surely an 'easy win' in terms of reducing R if we can make that the norm.
Masks are pointless in outdoor settings. I think that people would wear them to do the shopping, because a modest number already do of course, but if we're embarking down that route it needs to be demanded by regulation.
When Government first changed the advice to suggest that masks might be a good idea for indoor settings I wore one to Tesco. Given that it was (a) a bit of a faff (the wretched thing started falling to pieces when I tried to adjust it because it was getting uncomfortable) and (b) 95% of the rest of the customers couldn't be arsed to begin with, I did not repeat the experiment. And why would you, if hardly anybody else is bothering?
The latest survey data that appeared on the slides at yesterday's briefing suggested that "29% of adults used a face covering when outside their home." A case of people telling pollsters what they think they want to hear (or will make them look good) if ever there was one. Where is this near-third of the population that's walking around in masks? It's patently bollocks.
I'd say it's, at most, one in ten and they tend to be disproportionately worn by older people with obvious health conditions.
That seems about right to me.
Based on my observations the distribution of mask wearers seems a lot more random, but one could easily understand if they were being worn disproportionately by the vulnerable - even though the scientific advice appears to be that they offer no meaningful protection to the wearer and, rather, may be of some limited use in reducing transmission by the already infected.
In short, to the extent people are wearing masks in non-clinical settings, they are probably nothing more than a security blanket for the frightened.
This is the definition of focusing on the superficial, but I have become fairly convinced it's a wig. That of course is by no means an issue - very sensible I'd say. I don't see that it can indicate a health issue because Nicola has been incredibly, exhaustingly active over this time. Unless it's alopecia, which if it is, must have been incredibly alarming for her when it happened.
It looks suspiciously like the 1974 "Shang a lang" wig, available from the Bay City Rollers fan club, while stocks last....
A 19 year old has been killed in Detroit after someone drove up in a SUV and started firing into the crowd
It is sickening and the US seem to be on the verge of a full civil war
America has been broken by kind the billionaire funded fake populist right wing politics that is now being practiced here. The US is the country the Right want us to emulate. Where they go we will follow, especially as we have been cut adrift from social democratic Europe.
The US is on the verge of a race civil war
This Country is nothing like the US nor will it be
I watched the coverage of the CNN crew being arrested by "faceless" police who were standing around looking like Imperial Startroopers in all their amour. It looked like a battlefield, not like a town centre. My only thought was that thankfully I do not live there.
Increasingly, it seems, the best thing about America is the 3,000 miles of ocean between them and us...
Indeed. But America is a huge and diverse country, we should try not to read too much into events, awful as they are, in one city, or cities. There are many peaceful places.
Another four years of Trump though is an awful prospect.
This is the definition of focusing on the superficial, but I have become fairly convinced it's a wig. That of course is by no means an issue - very sensible I'd say. I don't see that it can indicate a health issue because Nicola has been incredibly, exhaustingly active over this time. Unless it's alopecia, which if it is, must have been incredibly alarming for her when it happened.
Or maybe she is just good at doing her own hair. It is on her head, she gets to practice every day.
Yes, of course. And it's not really a source of criticism as far as I am concerned, I think people like to see their statespeople looking well turned out.
The quality of the scientific advice has been extremely poor throughout. From ridiculously simplistic exponential models that created the illusion that herd immunity was not only necessary but inevitable, to failures to see the big picture in testing, to wildly swinging estimates of the likely death toll, to failing to identify that the transfer of sick patients to care homes was going to be a public health disaster, its depressing. A PM who apparently does not read the scientific papers and clearly does not have the capacity to ask critical questions about them really does not help. This should be Cummings job but I fear he has been somewhat distracted.
A 19 year old has been killed in Detroit after someone drove up in a SUV and started firing into the crowd
It is sickening and the US seem to be on the verge of a full civil war
America has been broken by kind the billionaire funded fake populist right wing politics that is now being practiced here. The US is the country the Right want us to emulate. Where they go we will follow, especially as we have been cut adrift from social democratic Europe.
The US is on the verge of a race civil war
This Country is nothing like the US nor will it be
I watched the coverage of the CNN crew being arrested by "faceless" police who were standing around looking like Imperial Startroopers in all their amour. It looked like a battlefield, not like a town centre. My only thought was that thankfully I do not live there.
Increasingly, it seems, the best thing about America is the 3,000 miles of ocean between them and us...
Indeed. But America is a huge and diverse country, we should try not to read too much into events, awful as they are, in one city, or cities. There are many peaceful places.
Another four years of Trump though is an awful prospect.
Pretty dangerous one too. I'm pleasantly surprised at how little damage he has done but I still wouldn't past him to trigger a major international or civil war.
The government's current approach lacks a clear message. It favours prescriptive rules ('6 people') that sound arbitrary over principles people can understand and apply.
Surely we need the following:
1) Continue to socially distance with other households 2) Avoid confined spaces - outside is better 3) Do not gather in large groups or crowds - risk of 'super spreader events' 4) Wear masks in public 5) Protect vulnerable members of society by being more careful in general if you come into contact with them
The complete absence of a policy of mask wearing is particularly bizarre at this stage. I understood earlier on when PPE was at critical levels, but it is surely an 'easy win' in terms of reducing R if we can make that the norm.
This is what the government were saying earlier in the week:
1 more point than yours but its really not that far removed from what you say we need.
I will keep an eye out for the updated version from Monday. I expect it to be similar.
This is the definition of focusing on the superficial, but I have become fairly convinced it's a wig. That of course is by no means an issue - very sensible I'd say. I don't see that it can indicate a health issue because Nicola has been incredibly, exhaustingly active over this time. Unless it's alopecia, which if it is, must have been incredibly alarming for her when it happened.
Or maybe she is just good at doing her own hair. It is on her head, she gets to practice every day.
Yes, of course. And it's not really a source of criticism as far as I am concerned, I think people like to see their statespeople looking well turned out.
I think it was that whole episode that kicked off the rumours. But like I said, however she does it her appearance is always smart and 'uniform' and that's a good thing.
Masks are pointless in outdoor settings. I think that people would wear them to do the shopping, because a modest number already do of course, but if we're embarking down that route it needs to be demanded by regulation.
When Government first changed the advice to suggest that masks might be a good idea for indoor settings I wore one to Tesco. Given that it was (a) a bit of a faff (the wretched thing started falling to pieces when I tried to adjust it because it was getting uncomfortable) and (b) 95% of the rest of the customers couldn't be arsed to begin with, I did not repeat the experiment. And why would you, if hardly anybody else is bothering?
WTF is wrong with you
Why are you being rude?
I sympathise with her point of view.
Put yourself in a little bit of danger, put other people in a bigger bit a more danger, and insist that for you not to be an idiot, you need the government to *force* you to not to be an idiot.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I have not worn a mask since this whole thing started, but then again, I have been good at self isolating so I do not interact with anyone. Going to the shops is all the interaction I get these days and almost no one is masked up
It was only a matter of time before they started blaming the scientists.
Being so heavy in message on following scientific advice was in part about attempting to insulate against future criticism of decisions I am sure. But the furore if they had not stressed it so heavily would have been enormous so thats understandable. It doesnt erase any political responsibility but following the majority scientific view of advisers is at the least dependable.
The government's current approach lacks a clear message. It favours prescriptive rules ('6 people') that sound arbitrary over principles people can understand and apply.
Surely we need the following:
1) Continue to socially distance with other households 2) Avoid confined spaces - outside is better 3) Do not gather in large groups or crowds - risk of 'super spreader events' 4) Wear masks in public 5) Protect vulnerable members of society by being more careful in general if you come into contact with them
The complete absence of a policy of mask wearing is particularly bizarre at this stage. I understood earlier on when PPE was at critical levels, but it is surely an 'easy win' in terms of reducing R if we can make that the norm.
Masks are pointless in outdoor settings. I think that people would wear them to do the shopping, because a modest number already do of course, but if we're embarking down that route it needs to be demanded by regulation.
When Government first changed the advice to suggest that masks might be a good idea for indoor settings I wore one to Tesco. Given that it was (a) a bit of a faff (the wretched thing started falling to pieces when I tried to adjust it because it was getting uncomfortable) and (b) 95% of the rest of the customers couldn't be arsed to begin with, I did not repeat the experiment. And why would you, if hardly anybody else is bothering?
The latest survey data that appeared on the slides at yesterday's briefing suggested that "29% of adults used a face covering when outside their home." A case of people telling pollsters what they think they want to hear (or will make them look good) if ever there was one. Where is this near-third of the population that's walking around in masks? It's patently bollocks.
I'd say it's, at most, one in ten and they tend to be disproportionately worn by older people with obvious health conditions.
That seems about right to me.
Based on my observations the distribution of mask wearers seems a lot more random, but one could easily understand if they were being worn disproportionately by the vulnerable - even though the scientific advice appears to be that they offer no meaningful protection to the wearer and, rather, may be of some limited use in reducing transmission by the already infected.
In short, to the extent people are wearing masks in non-clinical settings, they are probably nothing more than a security blanket for the frightened.
Interesting, because my local observation is the opposite. Almost all of the (relatively few) mask wearers have been younger people, up to young middle age, with older middle age and retired people not.
This is the definition of focusing on the superficial, but I have become fairly convinced it's a wig. That of course is by no means an issue - very sensible I'd say. I don't see that it can indicate a health issue because Nicola has been incredibly, exhaustingly active over this time. Unless it's alopecia, which if it is, must have been incredibly alarming for her when it happened.
It looks suspiciously like the 1974 "Shang a lang" wig, available from the Bay City Rollers fan club, while stocks last....
A 19 year old has been killed in Detroit after someone drove up in a SUV and started firing into the crowd
It is sickening and the US seem to be on the verge of a full civil war
America has been broken by kind the billionaire funded fake populist right wing politics that is now being practiced here. The US is the country the Right want us to emulate. Where they go we will follow, especially as we have been cut adrift from social democratic Europe.
The US is on the verge of a race civil war
This Country is nothing like the US nor will it be
I watched the coverage of the CNN crew being arrested by "faceless" police who were standing around looking like Imperial Startroopers in all their amour. It looked like a battlefield, not like a town centre. My only thought was that thankfully I do not live there.
Increasingly, it seems, the best thing about America is the 3,000 miles of ocean between them and us...
Indeed. But America is a huge and diverse country, we should try not to read too much into events, awful as they are, in one city, or cities. There are many peaceful places.
Another four years of Trump though is an awful prospect.
Is not part of the problem that while many 'Americans' were, or are descended from, adventurous people who fancied the challenge of what was sold as an empty country, others are descended from habitual lawbreakers or challengers to the established order (not by any means, of course the same thing). Some of course were the 'huddled masses yearning to be free' and others seeking a better life, and yet others are descended from people who were taken there in chains.
The quality of the scientific advice has been extremely poor throughout. From ridiculously simplistic exponential models that created the illusion that herd immunity was not only necessary but inevitable, to failures to see the big picture in testing, to wildly swinging estimates of the likely death toll, to failing to identify that the transfer of sick patients to care homes was going to be a public health disaster, its depressing. A PM who apparently does not read the scientific papers and clearly does not have the capacity to ask critical questions about them really does not help. This should be Cummings job but I fear he has been somewhat distracted.
The science was erroneous, which gives the government a free pass. OK...?
So how do we feel about the government now sidelining the medical science in favour of political expediency, as David's excellent header hints at?
The government's current approach lacks a clear message. It favours prescriptive rules ('6 people') that sound arbitrary over principles people can understand and apply.
Surely we need the following:
1) Continue to socially distance with other households 2) Avoid confined spaces - outside is better 3) Do not gather in large groups or crowds - risk of 'super spreader events' 4) Wear masks in public 5) Protect vulnerable members of society by being more careful in general if you come into contact with them
The complete absence of a policy of mask wearing is particularly bizarre at this stage. I understood earlier on when PPE was at critical levels, but it is surely an 'easy win' in terms of reducing R if we can make that the norm.
Masks are pointless in outdoor settings. I think that people would wear them to do the shopping, because a modest number already do of course, but if we're embarking down that route it needs to be demanded by regulation.
When Government first changed the advice to suggest that masks might be a good idea for indoor settings I wore one to Tesco. Given that it was (a) a bit of a faff (the wretched thing started falling to pieces when I tried to adjust it because it was getting uncomfortable) and (b) 95% of the rest of the customers couldn't be arsed to begin with, I did not repeat the experiment. And why would you, if hardly anybody else is bothering?
The latest survey data that appeared on the slides at yesterday's briefing suggested that "29% of adults used a face covering when outside their home." A case of people telling pollsters what they think they want to hear (or will make them look good) if ever there was one. Where is this near-third of the population that's walking around in masks? It's patently bollocks.
I'd say it's, at most, one in ten and they tend to be disproportionately worn by older people with obvious health conditions.
That seems about right to me.
Based on my observations the distribution of mask wearers seems a lot more random, but one could easily understand if they were being worn disproportionately by the vulnerable - even though the scientific advice appears to be that they offer no meaningful protection to the wearer and, rather, may be of some limited use in reducing transmission by the already infected.
In short, to the extent people are wearing masks in non-clinical settings, they are probably nothing more than a security blanket for the frightened.
Interesting, because my local observation is the opposite. Almost all of the (relatively few) mask wearers have been younger people, up to young middle age, with older middle age and retired people not.
Must be some national variation on this. Very few mask-wearers round here. Those that do really stand out. I`d say that most that do are older people.
I saw someone yesterday driving while wearing one (on his own in the car).
"if Cummings had had more common sense he would had a CYA email in place before heading north."
Excuse my lack of knowledge but what is a CYA
In a large organisation, if you want to do something a bit questionable, first send an email to lots of important people. Send it at 16:01 (when the big-wigs are on the way home), under a vague subject, and with the controversial bit hidden in a long boring paragraph.
You arse is now covered, as no-one important will want to admit they were too lazy to read their emails.
You dont even need the subterfuge, send it at a normal hour and even include reference to moving ahead unless you hear otherwise. If possible make sure you retain a email telling you not to hold things up which you are bound to have had at some point.
Very good header. Yes it's a mess. No plan. No communication of the thinking to the extent there is some. We are relaxing lockdown with the virus not squashed and no serious TTI in place. And by "we" I mean the public since anything Johnson tells us to do has no credibility. He has lost all authority on this having chosen to praise the rule-breaking of his Chief Adviser rather than criticize it. So it's hit and hope, I'm afraid, and with the added handicap of a compromised PM. Things could hardly be worse but get ready for them getting much worse. What can we do to turn it around? I really don't know. There must be a case for Starmer getting more involved in the decision making and perhaps taking over from Johnson as the main person on the comms - at least people might then be more likely to listen to instructions - but unfortunately our tribal "ya boo sucks" way of doing politics probably precludes this.
France is already reopening cafes, hotels and restaurants from Monday. Germany, Austria, Australia and New Zealand have already done so, the UK is not reopening them until July.
So in my view the timeframe of reopening is correct
No need to apologise though. It was a decent enough call. I made the same mistake for the same reason.
Agree, it was hard to imagine that Boris would burn so many bridges saving such an idiot as Cummings.
Cummings isn't an idiot, Malc, but one positive from the sorry episode is that he has dismantled the myth that he is some kind of towering intellect.
You didn't need to be particularly clever or subtle to come up with a better cover story than his. As for common sense, the journey to Barnard Castle showed a complete lack.
He might actually have got away with the whole thing but for the BC adventure but it was such a transparent lie that you had to wonder whether the whole account was a complete work of fiction, starting with Mary's 'illness' and the late nite drive to Durham.
I did a "Scoop and Run" for Fox Jr from his London digs a week or so before DC did the same (note: mine was pre lockdown). Having set him up at home, myself and Mrs Foxy returned to hospital work in what was a mounting epidemic,
It is not easy to forget the weird atmosphere there. The streets and pubs mostly empty, audible coughs from neighbours, the swirling lights of passing ambulances. The supermarket shelves emptying fast, the hospitals filling, the news of a fresh rise in deaths doubling every few days. The place seemed like a zombie apocalypse movie.
With the PM, and CMO ill, I can understand the desire to flee to the countryside with family. It was though a breach of government policy, as encouraging such moves certainly risked spread. Remember the criticism in press of those heading to second homes in West Country, Cumbria and Wales?
So he saw himself above the rules, and covered his tracks with a transparent tissue of lies. There were no witnesses or accounts of either Cummings or Wakefields illnesses, only of their sons. That was not Covid, and quite transient.
Was it all an episode of funk? With the first whiff of gunpowder, he broke for the rear.
The quality of the scientific advice has been extremely poor throughout. From ridiculously simplistic exponential models that created the illusion that herd immunity was not only necessary but inevitable, to failures to see the big picture in testing, to wildly swinging estimates of the likely death toll, to failing to identify that the transfer of sick patients to care homes was going to be a public health disaster, its depressing. A PM who apparently does not read the scientific papers and clearly does not have the capacity to ask critical questions about them really does not help. This should be Cummings job but I fear he has been somewhat distracted.
The science was erroneous, which gives the government a free pass. OK...?
So how do we feel about the government now sidelining the medical science in favour of political expediency, as David's excellent header hints at?
Because the science having been a bit shit now gives them cover to go about rebuilding the economy?
Masks are pointless in outdoor settings. I think that people would wear them to do the shopping, because a modest number already do of course, but if we're embarking down that route it needs to be demanded by regulation.
When Government first changed the advice to suggest that masks might be a good idea for indoor settings I wore one to Tesco. Given that it was (a) a bit of a faff (the wretched thing started falling to pieces when I tried to adjust it because it was getting uncomfortable) and (b) 95% of the rest of the customers couldn't be arsed to begin with, I did not repeat the experiment. And why would you, if hardly anybody else is bothering?
WTF is wrong with you
Why are you being rude?
I sympathise with her point of view.
Put yourself in a little bit of danger, put other people in a bigger bit a more danger, and insist that for you not to be an idiot, you need the government to *force* you to not to be an idiot.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I have not worn a mask since this whole thing started, but then again, I have been good at self isolating so I do not interact with anyone. Going to the shops is all the interaction I get these days and almost no one is masked up
Why do you need to wait for everybody else to lead you?
"tax cuts for wealthy: cut in top rate of income tax" - this partially reversed a last ditch hike by Labour. The rate remains 5% higher than it was for almost the entirety of the Labour period. Also, when the rate itself was higher the tax take was lower. Tax policy should be governed by generating revenue, not vindictively seeking to harm the wealthy. Public good trumps private harm.
"Voter suppression: trials of voter ID to deal with virtually nonexistent problem of impersonation, which has been shown to disadvantage poor and minorities" - there are dozens of acceptable forms of ID including requesting a special one, free of charge, from the local council. Photo ID has been used, I believe, in Northern Ireland for many years.
"Blaming immigrants for problems: entire Leave campaign plus casual racism of Johnson" - rather vague. One might as well claim all Remainers are traitors. Perhaps we can agree Johnson is a moron?
"Attack on labour rights: the 1980s trade union "reforms"" - Unions have no right to hold the country to ransom.
"Cuts to welfare state: Universal credit, benefit cap, bedroom tax, all of which have created unprecedented surge in food bank use (another US import)" - Universal credit is underfunded and the six week limit ridiculous. It should be changed in its execution. Simplifying the benefits system, however, is a very good thing. A benefit cap of £26,000 is absolutely fine and there's no reason the taxpayer should be throwing more than that at people who aren't working (additional money for those who are ill is another matter although I'd guess that would mostly come via NHS resources). The bedroom tax wasn't a tax, it was reduced benefits, and didn't happen in private housing for years with nobody caring? Food banks began in this country under Blair during the boom years and have risen consistently ever since. Their proliferation cannot be laid at any particular set of policies.
"Brexit: designed to dismantle European style norms of social protection and move us closer to unfettered free market policies of US" - If we had the European norm on benefits it would mean shifting to a contribution model, and if we adopted likewise their maternity leave it would mean the current amount being cut in half.
On the tax issue, the evidence on whether it increased or reduced tax payments is unclear according to the IFS. The reduction was flagged in advance giving some taxpayers an opportunity to shift income across tax years, muddying the picture. It certainly reduced my tax bill, which I objected to at a time of such obvious need.
The voter ID thing is a solution in search of a problem and has been widely agreed to have reduced participation by marginal groups.
The benefit cuts have caused widespread hardship as you yourself seem to recognise, but don't seem much bothered by. Food banks may have existed pre-2010 but their use has grown by many multiples since then as you know.
Trade unions overstepped the mark in the 1970s but their emasculation since then has helped to spread harmful work practices (Sports direct etc) and contributed to low pay growth.
I note you don't really engage with the nasty populism of the Leave campaign and the PM's own history of inflammatory language on race. Probably for the best.
Other European countries have higher levels of tax and social protection, especially our Northern European peers, and much less inequality as a result.
I've heard this US civil war thing many times before.
I suspect there will be nasty riots, some deaths, many more nasty injuries and a fair bit of wanton damage to property in a number of major cities for several weeks.
It will then gradually peter out and return to politics as normal.
I think a bigger problem is simply US styles of policing, which is quite aggressive, stern and trigger happy.
I don't know how you change that in a society where almost anyone could be carrying a gun.
And a surge in covid cases, no better breeding ground than a race riot on a warm day.
This is the definition of focusing on the superficial, but I have become fairly convinced it's a wig. That of course is by no means an issue - very sensible I'd say. I don't see that it can indicate a health issue because Nicola has been incredibly, exhaustingly active over this time. Unless it's alopecia, which if it is, must have been incredibly alarming for her when it happened.
It looks suspiciously like the 1974 "Shang a lang" wig, available from the Bay City Rollers fan club, while stocks last....
The quality of the scientific advice has been extremely poor throughout. From ridiculously simplistic exponential models that created the illusion that herd immunity was not only necessary but inevitable, to failures to see the big picture in testing, to wildly swinging estimates of the likely death toll, to failing to identify that the transfer of sick patients to care homes was going to be a public health disaster, its depressing. A PM who apparently does not read the scientific papers and clearly does not have the capacity to ask critical questions about them really does not help. This should be Cummings job but I fear he has been somewhat distracted.
The science was erroneous, which gives the government a free pass. OK...?
So how do we feel about the government now sidelining the medical science in favour of political expediency, as David's excellent header hints at?
I did not say that it gives the government a free pass. Quite the reverse. When the quality of advice is poor it is essential that critical and intelligent questions are asked of it. Boris, apparently, does not have the capacity to get into the detail. We could really do with Hunt being back involved. So far as expediency is concerned I agree and set that out in my other post. Its not good but there are no alternatives given the economic imperative. The weird obsession with Cummings is an error, focussing on trivia rather than a £60bn deficit in a single month, but the conclusion is the same. We muddle on without the right safeguards or systems or testing because we must.
This is the definition of focusing on the superficial, but I have become fairly convinced it's a wig. That of course is by no means an issue - very sensible I'd say. I don't see that it can indicate a health issue because Nicola has been incredibly, exhaustingly active over this time. Unless it's alopecia, which if it is, must have been incredibly alarming for her when it happened.
It looks suspiciously like the 1974 "Shang a lang" wig, available from the Bay City Rollers fan club, while stocks last....
If we are being superficial.
Nobody should admit to having been a BCR fan.
Nobody.
I had a sister who was.
Honest.
One should exhibit pity, I know, but it's difficult.
If they're sensible they'll be finding a way to quietly back down over Hong Kong whilst saving face. Probably by rewriting aspects of the proposed security law or delaying it again by kicking it into the long grass.
If they're not sensible they'll escalate the trade wars.
Not that I know the mind of the communist party leadership but it's hard to imagine they could not have predicted the response to their actions and pressed ahead regardless, so I'm not sure how theyd save face, particularly as they get pretty aggressive and false in tone about the unreasonable ness of anyone talking about HK.
But then apparently they genuinely believed their own propaganda ahead of the local elections last year and were surprised at the outcome, so who knows.
"An attempt to bury the bad Cummings news"? I always thought that it was the other way round. The Cummings furore seemed a lot like an attempt to bury the bad news, for shutdown supporters, of the planned reopening of schools, shops and businesses. The government has been planning these reopening measures for weeks. As for the re-emergence of the virus, this may not happen for some time. Most European countries are not having a second peak yet.
The quality of the scientific advice has been extremely poor throughout. From ridiculously simplistic exponential models that created the illusion that herd immunity was not only necessary but inevitable, to failures to see the big picture in testing, to wildly swinging estimates of the likely death toll, to failing to identify that the transfer of sick patients to care homes was going to be a public health disaster, its depressing. A PM who apparently does not read the scientific papers and clearly does not have the capacity to ask critical questions about them really does not help. This should be Cummings job but I fear he has been somewhat distracted.
The science was erroneous, which gives the government a free pass. OK...?
So how do we feel about the government now sidelining the medical science in favour of political expediency, as David's excellent header hints at?
I did not say that it gives the government a free pass. Quite the reverse. When the quality of advice is poor it is essential that critical and intelligent questions are asked of it. Boris, apparently, does not have the capacity to get into the detail. We could really do with Hunt being back involved. So far as expediency is concerned I agree and set that out in my other post. Its not good but there are no alternatives given the economic imperative. The weird obsession with Cummings is an error, focussing on trivia rather than a £60bn deficit in a single month, but the conclusion is the same. We muddle on without the right safeguards or systems or testing because we must.
I have always considered Cummings' escapades to be a sideshow. It is a sideshow not without potential implications, particularly if a second wave develops shortly.
The quality of the scientific advice has been extremely poor throughout. From ridiculously simplistic exponential models that created the illusion that herd immunity was not only necessary but inevitable, to failures to see the big picture in testing, to wildly swinging estimates of the likely death toll, to failing to identify that the transfer of sick patients to care homes was going to be a public health disaster, its depressing. A PM who apparently does not read the scientific papers and clearly does not have the capacity to ask critical questions about them really does not help. This should be Cummings job but I fear he has been somewhat distracted.
The science was erroneous, which gives the government a free pass. OK...?
So how do we feel about the government now sidelining the medical science in favour of political expediency, as David's excellent header hints at?
Because the science having been a bit shit now gives them cover to go about rebuilding the economy?
This sounds rather like saying they wrecked the economy by following the scientific advice when it was poor, which gives them an excuse to risk destroying the economy altogether by ignoring the scientific evidence now.
A 19 year old has been killed in Detroit after someone drove up in a SUV and started firing into the crowd
It is sickening and the US seem to be on the verge of a full civil war
America has been broken by kind the billionaire funded fake populist right wing politics that is now being practiced here. The US is the country the Right want us to emulate. Where they go we will follow, especially as we have been cut adrift from social democratic Europe.
The US is on the verge of a race civil war
This Country is nothing like the US nor will it be
I watched the coverage of the CNN crew being arrested by "faceless" police who were standing around looking like Imperial Startroopers in all their amour. It looked like a battlefield, not like a town centre. My only thought was that thankfully I do not live there.
Increasingly, it seems, the best thing about America is the 3,000 miles of ocean between them and us...
Indeed. But America is a huge and diverse country, we should try not to read too much into events, awful as they are, in one city, or cities. There are many peaceful places.
Another four years of Trump though is an awful prospect.
It is not just this - the periodic school shootings, the recurrent victimisation of non-white people, the idiotic religious right and their evangelical fervour, their useless "health" system, their overly aggressive cops and justice system, the self-righteous indignation of fat blokes with assault rifles "lobbying" their MPs...
I am certain there are good bits, there seems to be plenty of dangerous, bone-headed bits too.
I was head-hunted for a job in the US once for a specialist software company. I am glad I had the wit to turn it down.
Masks are pointless in outdoor settings. I think that people would wear them to do the shopping, because a modest number already do of course, but if we're embarking down that route it needs to be demanded by regulation.
When Government first changed the advice to suggest that masks might be a good idea for indoor settings I wore one to Tesco. Given that it was (a) a bit of a faff (the wretched thing started falling to pieces when I tried to adjust it because it was getting uncomfortable) and (b) 95% of the rest of the customers couldn't be arsed to begin with, I did not repeat the experiment. And why would you, if hardly anybody else is bothering?
WTF is wrong with you
Why are you being rude?
I sympathise with her point of view.
Put yourself in a little bit of danger, put other people in a bigger bit a more danger, and insist that for you not to be an idiot, you need the government to *force* you to not to be an idiot.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Every decision we make about this situation is a product of calculation. Based on the advice provided, masks are of questionable and very limited value to begin with and if you're having to fiddle and adjust them anyway then they may even be worse than useless.
You do not put yourself in danger in a shop by not wearing a mask. That isn't what they are meant to be for in that context. You do increase the theoretical risk to others, but (a) that risk is extremely low if you're practicing social distancing anyway, and (b) if almost none of them are bothering either then why should you - especially given that you may also be increasing the theoretical risk to yourself if the mask needs to be adjusted. We are told that the surface of masks can concentrate contamination from the surrounding environment and that we should not be touching our faces, both as a general principle and because we may end up contaminating ourselves directly with the virus through fiddling with the mask, but leaving the thing alone when it's hot or rubbing or falling off is somewhat easier said than done.
To the extent that one is at risk in a shop at all, you're a lot more likely to contract Covid-19 by handling a product that a carrier has already picked up and put back (because they needed to check the allergy information or use by date and deemed them unsuitable, or simply changed their mind,) but people aren't going to stop touching stuff and then putting it back on the shelf again for these reasons no matter how much the likes of you might have a fit over the practice, and nor can we reasonably expect them to do so.
Masks in non-clinical settings appear to be of limited value and it's arguable whether using them has more drawbacks than advantages. One can only assume that this is why they have not been made compulsory: because in reality they're less of a necessity for squashing the virus and more of a comfort blanket for the more anxious members of the population. If they were truly valuable then their use would surely be demanded by regulation? Since it isn't then we can assume that they are inessential, and act accordingly.
This is the definition of focusing on the superficial, but I have become fairly convinced it's a wig. That of course is by no means an issue - very sensible I'd say. I don't see that it can indicate a health issue because Nicola has been incredibly, exhaustingly active over this time. Unless it's alopecia, which if it is, must have been incredibly alarming for her when it happened.
It looks suspiciously like the 1974 "Shang a lang" wig, available from the Bay City Rollers fan club, while stocks last....
If we are being superficial.
Nobody should admit to having been a BCR fan.
Nobody.
I had a sister who was.
Honest.
My wife has admitted to having tartan on her jeans but hints that there was a lot of peer pressure involved at the time. As we had already been married for a couple of decades when this was disclosed I thought I should give her the benefit of the doubt. Provisionally.
Mr. Boy, care to cite examples of those things you assert are occurring here?
Sure. Tax cuts for wealthy: cut in top rate of income tax Voter suppression: trials of voter ID to deal with virtually nonexistent problem of impersonation, which has been shown to disadvantage poor and minorities Blaming immigrants for problems: entire Leave campaign plus casual racism of Johnson Attack on labour rights: the 1980s trade union "reforms" Cuts to welfare state: Universal credit, benefit cap, bedroom tax, all of which have created unprecedented surge in food bank use (another US import) Brexit: designed to dismantle European style norms of social protection and move us closer to unfettered free market policies of US Hope this helps.
George Osborne cut the top income tax rate from 50% to 45%, Rishi Sunak has not and the top income tax rate is still higher than it was throughout Blair's premiership.
The point a system Boris wants is just creating a fair immigration system.
In Spain, Italy, the US and Canada you only get unemployment benefits if you have contributed via insurance, that is still not the case in the UK.
A 19 year old has been killed in Detroit after someone drove up in a SUV and started firing into the crowd
It is sickening and the US seem to be on the verge of a full civil war
America has been broken by kind the billionaire funded fake populist right wing politics that is now being practiced here. The US is the country the Right want us to emulate. Where they go we will follow, especially as we have been cut adrift from social democratic Europe.
The US is on the verge of a race civil war
This Country is nothing like the US nor will it be
I watched the coverage of the CNN crew being arrested by "faceless" police who were standing around looking like Imperial Startroopers in all their amour. It looked like a battlefield, not like a town centre. My only thought was that thankfully I do not live there.
Increasingly, it seems, the best thing about America is the 3,000 miles of ocean between them and us...
Indeed. But America is a huge and diverse country, we should try not to read too much into events, awful as they are, in one city, or cities. There are many peaceful places.
Another four years of Trump though is an awful prospect.
It is not just this - the periodic school shootings, the recurrent victimisation of non-white people, the idiotic religious right and their evangelical fervour, their useless "health" system, their overly aggressive cops and justice system, the self-righteous indignation of fat blokes with assault rifles "lobbying" their MPs...
I am certain there are good bits, there seems to be plenty of dangerous, bone-headed bits too.
I was head-hunted for a job in the US once for a specialist software company. I am glad I had the wit to turn it down.
Depends where you go, Massachusetts, San Francisco, Washington State, DC and Vermont for example are probably more left liberal than the UK is.
Very good header. Yes it's a mess. No plan. No communication of the thinking to the extent there is some. We are relaxing lockdown with the virus not squashed and no serious TTI in place. And by "we" I mean the public since anything Johnson tells us to do has no credibility. He has lost all authority on this having chosen to praise the rule-breaking of his Chief Adviser rather than criticize it. So it's hit and hope, I'm afraid, and with the added handicap of a compromised PM. Things could hardly be worse but get ready for them getting much worse. What can we do to turn it around? I really don't know. There must be a case for Starmer getting more involved in the decision making and perhaps taking over from Johnson as the main person on the comms - at least people might then be more likely to listen to instructions - but unfortunately our tribal "ya boo sucks" way of doing politics probably precludes this.
Tribality has little to do with this dream of the government with a big majority deciding not to go 'you know, the LoTO is better than us, he should take over'.
That's just a ridiculous fantasy not a suggestion grounded in any reality. The government we have has a responsibility to step up, improve where it needs to, and if people want to make a case for a unity government that's possible (though I cannot see why labour would think it a good idea) but for all tribal behaviour is pretty bad in this country and I'd love it for them all to work together better, it's not tribal behaviour for the LoTO to not be included in formal decision making or communications. Certainly his position means he should be involved in discussion and he has a very important role at holding the government to account but since I doubt even Starmer woukd suggest what you have for him it may not be tribal to not do it
Masks are pointless in outdoor settings. I think that people would wear them to do the shopping, because a modest number already do of course, but if we're embarking down that route it needs to be demanded by regulation.
When Government first changed the advice to suggest that masks might be a good idea for indoor settings I wore one to Tesco. Given that it was (a) a bit of a faff (the wretched thing started falling to pieces when I tried to adjust it because it was getting uncomfortable) and (b) 95% of the rest of the customers couldn't be arsed to begin with, I did not repeat the experiment. And why would you, if hardly anybody else is bothering?
WTF is wrong with you
Why are you being rude?
I sympathise with her point of view.
Put yourself in a little bit of danger, put other people in a bigger bit a more danger, and insist that for you not to be an idiot, you need the government to *force* you to not to be an idiot.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Every decision we make about this situation is a product of calculation. Based on the advice provided, masks are of questionable and very limited value to begin with and if you're having to fiddle and adjust them anyway then they may even be worse than useless.
You do not put yourself in danger in a shop by not wearing a mask. That isn't what they are meant to be for in that context. You do increase the theoretical risk to others, but (a) that risk is extremely low if you're practicing social distancing anyway, and (b) if almost none of them are bothering either then why should you - especially given that you may also be increasing the theoretical risk to yourself if the mask needs to be adjusted. We are told that the surface of masks can concentrate contamination from the surrounding environment and that we should not be touching our faces, both as a general principle and because we may end up contaminating ourselves directly with the virus through fiddling with the mask, but leaving the thing alone when it's hot or rubbing or falling off is somewhat easier said than done.
To the extent that one is at risk in a shop at all, you're a lot more likely to contract Covid-19 by handling a product that a carrier has already picked up and put back (because they needed to check the allergy information or use by date and deemed them unsuitable, or simply changed their mind,) but people aren't going to stop touching stuff and then putting it back on the shelf again for these reasons no matter how much the likes of you might have a fit over the practice, and nor can we reasonably expect them to do so.
Masks in non-clinical settings appear to be of limited value and it's arguable whether using them has more drawbacks than advantages. One can only assume that this is why they have not been made compulsory: because in reality they're less of a necessity for squashing the virus and more of a comfort blanket for the more anxious members of the population. If they were truly valuable then their use would surely be demanded by regulation? Since it isn't then we can assume that they are inessential, and act accordingly.
I can see a compelling case for masks on public transport and other locations where social distancing is difficult not to protect the wearer but to protect others. If the tube or commuter trains are going to come back to anything like capacity this will be essential. Other than that I am not so sure.
No need to apologise though. It was a decent enough call. I made the same mistake for the same reason.
Agree, it was hard to imagine that Boris would burn so many bridges saving such an idiot as Cummings.
Cummings isn't an idiot, Malc, but one positive from the sorry episode is that he has dismantled the myth that he is some kind of towering intellect.
You didn't need to be particularly clever or subtle to come up with a better cover story than his. As for common sense, the journey to Barnard Castle showed a complete lack.
He might actually have got away with the whole thing but for the BC adventure but it was such a transparent lie that you had to wonder whether the whole account was a complete work of fiction, starting with Mary's 'illness' and the late nite drive to Durham.
I did a "Scoop and Run" for Fox Jr from his London digs a week or so before DC did the same (note: mine was pre lockdown). Having set him up at home, myself and Mrs Foxy returned to hospital work in what was a mounting epidemic,
It is not easy to forget the weird atmosphere there. The streets and pubs mostly empty, audible coughs from neighbours, the swirling lights of passing ambulances. The supermarket shelves emptying fast, the hospitals filling, the news of a fresh rise in deaths doubling every few days. The place seemed like a zombie apocalypse movie.
With the PM, and CMO ill, I can understand the desire to flee to the countryside with family. It was though a breach of government policy, as encouraging such moves certainly risked spread. Remember the criticism in press of those heading to second homes in West Country, Cumbria and Wales?
So he saw himself above the rules, and covered his tracks with a transparent tissue of lies. There were no witnesses or accounts of either Cummings or Wakefields illnesses, only of their sons. That was not Covid, and quite transient.
Was it all an episode of funk? With the first whiff of gunpowder, he broke for the rear.
When danger reared its ugly head He bravely turned his tail and fled
“Leaving private citizens to interpret the rules for themselves a la Cummings, whilst imposing restrictions on businesses that are consistent with an entirely different approach to the epidemic, means that we face sacrificing a lot of people for the wider economic good whilst failing utterly to achieve that aim. Death and suffering in vain, inflicted for no purpose.“
A review article strongly advocating the wearing of masks.
Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/27/science.abc6197 Respiratory infections occur through the transmission of virus-containing droplets (>5 to 10 μm) and aerosols (≤5 μm) exhaled from infected individuals during breathing, speaking, coughing, and sneezing. Traditional respiratory disease control measures are designed to reduce transmission by droplets produced in the sneezes and coughs of infected individuals. However, a large proportion of the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) appears to be occurring through airborne transmission of aerosols produced by asymptomatic individuals during breathing and speaking (1–3). Aerosols can accumulate, remain infectious in indoor air for hours, and be easily inhaled deep into the lungs. For society to resume, measures designed to reduce aerosol transmission must be implemented, including universal masking and regular, widespread testing to identify and isolate infected asymptomatic individuals...
...Airborne transmission was determined to play a role during the SARS outbreak in 2003 (1, 4). However, many countries have not yet acknowledged airborne transmission as a possible pathway for SARS-CoV-2 (1). Recent studies have shown that in addition to droplets, SARS-CoV-2 may also be transmitted through aerosols. A study in hospitals in Wuhan, China, found SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols further than 6 ft from patients with higher concentrations detected in more crowded areas (8). Estimates using an average sputum viral load for SARS-CoV-2 indicate that 1 min of loud speaking could generate >1000 virion-containing aerosols (9). Assuming viral titers for infected super-emitters (with 100-fold higher viral load than average) yields an increase to more than 100,000 virions in emitted droplets per minute of speaking.
The World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations for social distancing of 6 ft and hand washing to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are based on studies of respiratory droplets carried out in the 1930s...
The quality of the scientific advice has been extremely poor throughout. From ridiculously simplistic exponential models that created the illusion that herd immunity was not only necessary but inevitable, to failures to see the big picture in testing, to wildly swinging estimates of the likely death toll, to failing to identify that the transfer of sick patients to care homes was going to be a public health disaster, its depressing. A PM who apparently does not read the scientific papers and clearly does not have the capacity to ask critical questions about them really does not help. This should be Cummings job but I fear he has been somewhat distracted.
The science was erroneous, which gives the government a free pass. OK...?
So how do we feel about the government now sidelining the medical science in favour of political expediency, as David's excellent header hints at?
I did not say that it gives the government a free pass. Quite the reverse. When the quality of advice is poor it is essential that critical and intelligent questions are asked of it. Boris, apparently, does not have the capacity to get into the detail. We could really do with Hunt being back involved. So far as expediency is concerned I agree and set that out in my other post. Its not good but there are no alternatives given the economic imperative. The weird obsession with Cummings is an error, focussing on trivia rather than a £60bn deficit in a single month, but the conclusion is the same. We muddle on without the right safeguards or systems or testing because we must.
I have always considered Cummings' escapades to be a sideshow. It is a sideshow not without potential implications, particularly if a second wave develops shortly.
I get the impression you are trying to pick an argument but we are in agreement once again. Cummings was indeed a sideshow but it undermined the capacity of the government to give credible advice at an important time and that is not without consequence.
"tax cuts for wealthy: cut in top rate of income tax" - this partially reversed a last ditch hike by Labour. The rate remains 5% higher than it was for almost the entirety of the Labour period. Also, when the rate itself was higher the tax take was lower. Tax policy should be governed by generating revenue, not vindictively seeking to harm the wealthy. Public good trumps private harm.
"Voter suppression: trials of voter ID to deal with virtually nonexistent problem of impersonation, which has been shown to disadvantage poor and minorities" - there are dozens of acceptable forms of ID including requesting a special one, free of charge, from the local council. Photo ID has been used, I believe, in Northern Ireland for many years.
"Blaming immigrants for problems: entire Leave campaign plus casual racism of Johnson" - rather vague. One might as well claim all Remainers are traitors. Perhaps we can agree Johnson is a moron?
"Attack on labour rights: the 1980s trade union "reforms"" - Unions have no right to hold the country to ransom.
"Cuts to welfare state: Universal credit, benefit cap, bedroom tax, all of which have created unprecedented surge in food bank use (another US import)" - Universal credit is underfunded and the six week limit ridiculous. It should be changed in its execution. Simplifying the benefits system, however, is a very good thing. A benefit cap of £26,000 is absolutely fine and there's no reason the taxpayer should be throwing more than that at people who aren't working (additional money for those who are ill is another matter although I'd guess that would mostly come via NHS resources). The bedroom tax wasn't a tax, it was reduced benefits, and didn't happen in private housing for years with nobody caring? Food banks began in this country under Blair during the boom years and have risen consistently ever since. Their proliferation cannot be laid at any particular set of policies.
"Brexit: designed to dismantle European style norms of social protection and move us closer to unfettered free market policies of US" - If we had the European norm on benefits it would mean shifting to a contribution model, and if we adopted likewise their maternity leave it would mean the current amount being cut in half.
On the tax issue, the evidence on whether it increased or reduced tax payments is unclear according to the IFS. The reduction was flagged in advance giving some taxpayers an opportunity to shift income across tax years, muddying the picture. It certainly reduced my tax bill, which I objected to at a time of such obvious need.
The voter ID thing is a solution in search of a problem and has been widely agreed to have reduced participation by marginal groups.
The benefit cuts have caused widespread hardship as you yourself seem to recognise, but don't seem much bothered by. Food banks may have existed pre-2010 but their use has grown by many multiples since then as you know.
Trade unions overstepped the mark in the 1970s but their emasculation since then has helped to spread harmful work practices (Sports direct etc) and contributed to low pay growth.
I note you don't really engage with the nasty populism of the Leave campaign and the PM's own history of inflammatory language on race. Probably for the best.
Other European countries have higher levels of tax and social protection, especially our Northern European peers, and much less inequality as a result.
I agree with the bedroom tax in principle, however Horrible Hammond sneaked in a further proviso to it which hurts pensioners.
Previously if one of you reaches pension age then the bedroom tax did not apply and the rent would be paid in full. Hammond changed that and it now only applies when the younger of the two also reaches pension age.
It is a double blow for women over 60, for example if her husband is 66 and she is 62 then the bedroom tax applies, and having been told all her life that she would be getting the state pension at 60 it is taking the piss.
Go into any supermarket/DIY store (before the lockdown) and you will find a woman over 60 on the checkout that really dooesn't want to be there but has no choice.
Masks are pointless in outdoor settings. I think that people would wear them to do the shopping, because a modest number already do of course, but if we're embarking down that route it needs to be demanded by regulation.
When Government first changed the advice to suggest that masks might be a good idea for indoor settings I wore one to Tesco. Given that it was (a) a bit of a faff (the wretched thing started falling to pieces when I tried to adjust it because it was getting uncomfortable) and (b) 95% of the rest of the customers couldn't be arsed to begin with, I did not repeat the experiment. And why would you, if hardly anybody else is bothering?
WTF is wrong with you
Why are you being rude?
I sympathise with her point of view.
Put yourself in a little bit of danger, put other people in a bigger bit a more danger, and insist that for you not to be an idiot, you need the government to *force* you to not to be an idiot.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I have not worn a mask since this whole thing started, but then again, I have been good at self isolating so I do not interact with anyone. Going to the shops is all the interaction I get these days and almost no one is masked up
Why do you need to wait for everybody else to lead you?
What is that supposed to mean?
I see nobody during the day. I go to a deserted supermarket at 9pm at night. What use is a mask?
"An attempt to bury the bad Cummings news"? I always thought that it was the other way round. The Cummings furore seemed a lot like an attempt to bury the bad news, for shutdown supporters, of the planned reopening of schools, shops and businesses. The government has been planning these reopening measures for weeks. As for the re-emergence of the virus, this may not happen for some time. Most European countries are not having a second peak yet.
There’s a decent possibility that the Cummings news was timed to bury the emerging truth that British mortality is higher than any comparator country, because of a failure to lock down early enough.
See also the SAGE minute releases.
For what it’s worth, I think the truth is murky.
The scientists totally missed the real world data and provided terrible advice.
AND
Boris/Cummings had an ideological predisposition against lockdown which likely shaped the public response.
AND
Boris was distracted/asleep at the wheel during key periods.
AND
Overall govt response/organisation has been an absolute debacle.
Cummings’ name has been redacted in the SAGE reports I see.
"tax cuts for wealthy: cut in top rate of income tax" - this partially reversed a last ditch hike by Labour. The rate remains 5% higher than it was for almost the entirety of the Labour period. Also, when the rate itself was higher the tax take was lower. Tax policy should be governed by generating revenue, not vindictively seeking to harm the wealthy. Public good trumps private harm.
"Voter suppression: trials of voter ID to deal with virtually nonexistent problem of impersonation, which has been shown to disadvantage poor and minorities" - there are dozens of acceptable forms of ID including requesting a special one, free of charge, from the local council. Photo ID has been used, I believe, in Northern Ireland for many years.
"Blaming immigrants for problems: entire Leave campaign plus casual racism of Johnson" - rather vague. One might as well claim all Remainers are traitors. Perhaps we can agree Johnson is a moron?
"Attack on labour rights: the 1980s trade union "reforms"" - Unions have no right to hold the country to ransom.
"Cuts to welfare state: Universal credit, benefit cap, bedroom tax, all of which have created unprecedented surge in food bank use (another US import)" - Universal credit is underfunded and the six week limit ridiculous. It should be changed in its execution. Simplifying the benefits system, however, is a very good thing. A benefit cap of £26,000 is absolutely fine and there's no reason the taxpayer should be throwing more than that at people who aren't working (additional money for those who are ill is another matter although I'd guess that would mostly come via NHS resources). The bedroom tax wasn't a tax, it was reduced benefits, and didn't happen in private housing for years with nobody caring? Food banks began in this country under Blair during the boom years and have risen consistently ever since. Their proliferation cannot be laid at any particular set of policies.
"Brexit: designed to dismantle European style norms of social protection and move us closer to unfettered free market policies of US" - If we had the European norm on benefits it would mean shifting to a contribution model, and if we adopted likewise their maternity leave it would mean the current amount being cut in half.
On the tax issue, the evidence on whether it increased or reduced tax payments is unclear according to the IFS. The reduction was flagged in advance giving some taxpayers an opportunity to shift income across tax years, muddying the picture. It certainly reduced my tax bill, which I objected to at a time of such obvious need.
The voter ID thing is a solution in search of a problem and has been widely agreed to have reduced participation by marginal groups.
The benefit cuts have caused widespread hardship as you yourself seem to recognise, but don't seem much bothered by. Food banks may have existed pre-2010 but their use has grown by many multiples since then as you know.
Trade unions overstepped the mark in the 1970s but their emasculation since then has helped to spread harmful work practices (Sports direct etc) and contributed to low pay growth.
I note you don't really engage with the nasty populism of the Leave campaign and the PM's own history of inflammatory language on race. Probably for the best.
Other European countries have higher levels of tax and social protection, especially our Northern European peers, and much less inequality as a result.
I agree with the bedroom tax in principle, however Horrible Hammond sneaked in a further proviso to it which hurts pensioners.
Previously if one of you reaches pension age then the bedroom tax did not apply and the rent would be paid in full. Hammond changed that and it now only applies when the younger of the two also reaches pension age.
It is a double blow for women over 60, for example if her husband is 66 and she is 62 then the bedroom tax applies, and having been told all her life that she would be getting the state pension at 60 it is taking the piss.
Go into any supermarket/DIY store (before the lockdown) and you will find a woman over 60 on the checkout that really dooesn't want to be there but has no choice.
That's interesting because I actually had noticed an increase in glum looking older women working at our local Sainsbury's. Tax cuts for the billionaire donor class don't pay for themselves though.
Masks are pointless in outdoor settings. I think that people would wear them to do the shopping, because a modest number already do of course, but if we're embarking down that route it needs to be demanded by regulation.
When Government first changed the advice to suggest that masks might be a good idea for indoor settings I wore one to Tesco. Given that it was (a) a bit of a faff (the wretched thing started falling to pieces when I tried to adjust it because it was getting uncomfortable) and (b) 95% of the rest of the customers couldn't be arsed to begin with, I did not repeat the experiment. And why would you, if hardly anybody else is bothering?
WTF is wrong with you
Why are you being rude?
I sympathise with her point of view.
Put yourself in a little bit of danger, put other people in a bigger bit a more danger, and insist that for you not to be an idiot, you need the government to *force* you to not to be an idiot.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I have not worn a mask since this whole thing started, but then again, I have been good at self isolating so I do not interact with anyone. Going to the shops is all the interaction I get these days and almost no one is masked up
Why do you need to wait for everybody else to lead you?
What is that supposed to mean?
I see nobody during the day. I go to a deserted supermarket at 9pm at night. What use is a mask?
I was referring to the "almost noone is masked up" part . As far as the "deserted" part goes, isn't there a person at the checkout who you come face-to-face with, or is it all automated?
No need to apologise though. It was a decent enough call. I made the same mistake for the same reason.
Agree, it was hard to imagine that Boris would burn so many bridges saving such an idiot as Cummings.
Cummings isn't an idiot, Malc, but one positive from the sorry episode is that he has dismantled the myth that he is some kind of towering intellect.
You didn't need to be particularly clever or subtle to come up with a better cover story than his. As for common sense, the journey to Barnard Castle showed a complete lack.
He might actually have got away with the whole thing but for the BC adventure but it was such a transparent lie that you had to wonder whether the whole account was a complete work of fiction, starting with Mary's 'illness' and the late nite drive to Durham.
I did a "Scoop and Run" for Fox Jr from his London digs a week or so before DC did the same (note: mine was pre lockdown). Having set him up at home, myself and Mrs Foxy returned to hospital work in what was a mounting epidemic,
It is not easy to forget the weird atmosphere there. The streets and pubs mostly empty, audible coughs from neighbours, the swirling lights of passing ambulances. The supermarket shelves emptying fast, the hospitals filling, the news of a fresh rise in deaths doubling every few days. The place seemed like a zombie apocalypse movie.
With the PM, and CMO ill, I can understand the desire to flee to the countryside with family. It was though a breach of government policy, as encouraging such moves certainly risked spread. Remember the criticism in press of those heading to second homes in West Country, Cumbria and Wales?
So he saw himself above the rules, and covered his tracks with a transparent tissue of lies. There were no witnesses or accounts of either Cummings or Wakefields illnesses, only of their sons. That was not Covid, and quite transient.
Was it all an episode of funk? With the first whiff of gunpowder, he broke for the rear.
When danger reared its ugly head He bravely turned his tail and fled
A Stalin to Mr Bean level loss of reputation.
Yes, the lack of corroboration of illness is interesting. On none of the sightings did DC or MW appear at all unwell.
The quality of the scientific advice has been extremely poor throughout. From ridiculously simplistic exponential models that created the illusion that herd immunity was not only necessary but inevitable, to failures to see the big picture in testing, to wildly swinging estimates of the likely death toll, to failing to identify that the transfer of sick patients to care homes was going to be a public health disaster, its depressing. A PM who apparently does not read the scientific papers and clearly does not have the capacity to ask critical questions about them really does not help. This should be Cummings job but I fear he has been somewhat distracted.
The science was erroneous, which gives the government a free pass. OK...?
So how do we feel about the government now sidelining the medical science in favour of political expediency, as David's excellent header hints at?
Because the science having been a bit shit now gives them cover to go about rebuilding the economy?
The rebuilding the economy part of it I can buy, with an explanation from government. I might not like it personally, it might be secondary to me as a well off, slightly overweight man in my fifties, but I can understand the logic.
What I don't buy into is the horrific notion that the lockdown easing activities might have been accelerated to deflect from the Cummings fiasco. I genuinely hope Mr Johnson can ride his luck and avoid a second wave. There are plenty on here suggesting a second wave as a result of early easing of restrictions is highly unlikely. If they are right what a fantastic call by Johnson, and in that event good luck to him.
1. Making joint citizenship illegal for people in HK forcing them to choose. 2. Saying that Chinese students should not go to British universities. 3. Closing down or seizing British owned businesses in China and/or HK. 4. Preventing British banks from operating in China or selling to Chinese customers.
And so on.
What reaction there would be to this from other countries I don’t know. But China is a nasty bully and the time has come to stop appeasing her. I am in favour of helping out Hong Kongers. We should offer them citizenship and a home here. I think we would benefit and it is the right thing to do IMO.
If this policy has come from Priti I find myself, once again, in the unexpected position of praising her. She has also been cunning enough not to tie herself to Cummings publicly.
The quality of the scientific advice has been extremely poor throughout. From ridiculously simplistic exponential models that created the illusion that herd immunity was not only necessary but inevitable, to failures to see the big picture in testing, to wildly swinging estimates of the likely death toll, to failing to identify that the transfer of sick patients to care homes was going to be a public health disaster, its depressing. A PM who apparently does not read the scientific papers and clearly does not have the capacity to ask critical questions about them really does not help. This should be Cummings job but I fear he has been somewhat distracted.
The science was erroneous, which gives the government a free pass. OK...?
So how do we feel about the government now sidelining the medical science in favour of political expediency, as David's excellent header hints at?
Because the science having been a bit shit now gives them cover to go about rebuilding the economy?
The rebuilding the economy part of it I can buy, with an explanation from government. I might not like it personally, it might be secondary to me as a well off, slightly overweight man in my fifties, but I can understand the logic.
What I don't buy into is the horrific notion that the lockdown easing activities might have been accelerated to deflect from the Cummings fiasco. I genuinely hope Mr Johnson can ride his luck and avoid a second wave. There are plenty on here suggesting a second wave as a result of early easing of restrictions is highly unlikely. If they are right what a fantastic call by Johnson, and in that event good luck to him.
Why don’t you buy into it? It’s the most logical explanation for the odd communications coming from the government over the last week.
The government's current approach lacks a clear message. It favours prescriptive rules ('6 people') that sound arbitrary over principles people can understand and apply.
Surely we need the following:
1) Continue to socially distance with other households 2) Avoid confined spaces - outside is better 3) Do not gather in large groups or crowds - risk of 'super spreader events' 4) Wear masks in public 5) Protect vulnerable members of society by being more careful in general if you come into contact with them
The complete absence of a policy of mask wearing is particularly bizarre at this stage. I understood earlier on when PPE was at critical levels, but it is surely an 'easy win' in terms of reducing R if we can make that the norm.
Masks are pointless in outdoor settings. I think that people would wear them to do the shopping, because a modest number already do of course, but if we're embarking down that route it needs to be demanded by regulation.
When Government first changed the advice to suggest that masks might be a good idea for indoor settings I wore one to Tesco. Given that it was (a) a bit of a faff (the wretched thing started falling to pieces when I tried to adjust it because it was getting uncomfortable) and (b) 95% of the rest of the customers couldn't be arsed to begin with, I did not repeat the experiment. And why would you, if hardly anybody else is bothering?
The latest survey data that appeared on the slides at yesterday's briefing suggested that "29% of adults used a face covering when outside their home." A case of people telling pollsters what they think they want to hear (or will make them look good) if ever there was one. Where is this near-third of the population that's walking around in masks? It's patently bollocks.
I'd say it's, at most, one in ten and they tend to be disproportionately worn by older people with obvious health conditions.
That seems about right to me.
Based on my observations the distribution of mask wearers seems a lot more random, but one could easily understand if they were being worn disproportionately by the vulnerable - even though the scientific advice appears to be that they offer no meaningful protection to the wearer and, rather, may be of some limited use in reducing transmission by the already infected.
In short, to the extent people are wearing masks in non-clinical settings, they are probably nothing more than a security blanket for the frightened.
I disagree with David's assumption that there will be a rise in cases ... And therefore all that follows from that.
Based on the evidence from other countries that have lifted lockdown before us plus the evidence that people are going to continue to socially distance then it seems quite probable that R will remain below 1.
If that happens we won't reach herd immunity. There will be a long tail (flattening the curve graphs had this at the start) as the number of cases and deaths logarithmically trends down.
There will be far more economic devastation from ongoing social distancing than there will be increases in deaths. But I can't see an alternative as people will continue to voluntarily socially distance whether we want them to or not.
The reality is people are educated now and will take matters into their own hands. As is quite appropriate. The reality is people are worried about death not just for themselves but their friends and families too. Ultimately I don't want my loved ones to die far more than any politicians don't want them to die: to me my loved ones are precious to politicians they're tragic statistics if they do.
Taking precautions is logical and doesn't need enforcement.
1. Making joint citizenship illegal for people in HK forcing them to choose. 2. Saying that Chinese students should not go to British universities. 3. Closing down or seizing British owned businesses in China and/or HK. 4. Preventing British banks from operating in China or selling to Chinese customers.
And so on.
What reaction there would be to this from other countries I don’t know. But China is a nasty bully and the time has come to stop appeasing her. I am in favour of helping out Hong Kongers. We should offer them citizenship and a home here. I think we would benefit and it is the right thing to do IMO.
If this policy has come from Priti I find myself, once again, in the unexpected position of praising her. She has also been cunning enough not to tie herself to Cummings publicly.
I agree, but I do note that our relationship with the three leading economic blocs are in a very odd place all of a sudden.
Heading for “WTO” with the EU. The beginning of what could be a trade war with China. Relying on a US which is famed for its one-sided trade agreements...can’t see Trump prioritising it, nor Joe “Irish” Biden...
The quality of the scientific advice has been extremely poor throughout. From ridiculously simplistic exponential models that created the illusion that herd immunity was not only necessary but inevitable, to failures to see the big picture in testing, to wildly swinging estimates of the likely death toll, to failing to identify that the transfer of sick patients to care homes was going to be a public health disaster, its depressing. A PM who apparently does not read the scientific papers and clearly does not have the capacity to ask critical questions about them really does not help. This should be Cummings job but I fear he has been somewhat distracted.
The science was erroneous, which gives the government a free pass. OK...?
So how do we feel about the government now sidelining the medical science in favour of political expediency, as David's excellent header hints at?
Because the science having been a bit shit now gives them cover to go about rebuilding the economy?
The rebuilding the economy part of it I can buy, with an explanation from government. I might not like it personally, it might be secondary to me as a well off, slightly overweight man in my fifties, but I can understand the logic.
What I don't buy into is the horrific notion that the lockdown easing activities might have been accelerated to deflect from the Cummings fiasco. I genuinely hope Mr Johnson can ride his luck and avoid a second wave. There are plenty on here suggesting a second wave as a result of early easing of restrictions is highly unlikely. If they are right what a fantastic call by Johnson, and in that event good luck to him.
Why don’t you buy into it? It’s the most logical explanation for the odd communications coming from the government over the last week.
As well as dissent from some key scientists.
Sorry, what I don't buy into is the notion that protecting Cummings is acceptable. Although it wasn't my mistake, it must have been the scientific advice I was given
This is the definition of focusing on the superficial, but I have become fairly convinced it's a wig. That of course is by no means an issue - very sensible I'd say. I don't see that it can indicate a health issue because Nicola has been incredibly, exhaustingly active over this time. Unless it's alopecia, which if it is, must have been incredibly alarming for her when it happened.
It looks suspiciously like the 1974 "Shang a lang" wig, available from the Bay City Rollers fan club, while stocks last....
If we are being superficial.
Nobody should admit to having been a BCR fan.
Nobody.
I had a sister who was.
Honest.
My wife has admitted to having tartan on her jeans but hints that there was a lot of peer pressure involved at the time. As we had already been married for a couple of decades when this was disclosed I thought I should give her the benefit of the doubt. Provisionally.
Just keep it under close review. A tartan skirt here, a tartan shopping trolley there....soon you'll have an infestation of the stuff.
1. Making joint citizenship illegal for people in HK forcing them to choose. 2. Saying that Chinese students should not go to British universities. 3. Closing down or seizing British owned businesses in China and/or HK. 4. Preventing British banks from operating in China or selling to Chinese customers.
And so on.
What reaction there would be to this from other countries I don’t know. But China is a nasty bully and the time has come to stop appeasing her. I am in favour of helping out Hong Kongers. We should offer them citizenship and a home here. I think we would benefit and it is the right thing to do IMO.
If this policy has come from Priti I find myself, once again, in the unexpected position of praising her. She has also been cunning enough not to tie herself to Cummings publicly.
I agree, but I do note that our relationship with the three leading economic blocs are in a very odd place all of a sudden.
Heading for “WTO” with the EU. The beginning of what could be a trade war with China. Relying on a US which is famed for its one-sided trade agreements...can’t see Trump prioritising it, nor Joe “Irish” Biden...
It's almost as if we considered ourselves capable of looking after ourselves and not needing to be bound to a bloc.
Comments
Contrast this with the Irish Government approach.
https://www.gov.ie/en/news/58bc8b-taoiseach-announces-roadmap-for-reopening-society-and-business-and-u/
Clear and consistent with explanations. But it is not simple because it isn't. Unlike Brits, the Irish can deal with complexity.
https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1266634056021786624
This from Telegraph on Germany is interesting:
"Prof Drosten said a policy of tracking and tracing is key, but warned that testing all those who have been in contact with an infected person can be too slow.
“The latest analysis shows clearly you don't start testing all possible contacts. That will always be too late. Instead, all contacts need to be isolated. But for a week, not 14 days.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/29/isolation-14-days-unnecessary-claims-germanys-top-government/
If that's the case then the Government will be ok with these measures.
And the left is much more anti-"elite" than the right - they just use different terminology, and focus on different parts of the elite (business vs public sector).
I'm afraid if you accept universal suffrage, or indeed any form of democracy, politicians will try and get votes. And, like salesmen, they will adapt their tactics to what sells.
It was a value call at the time. That's all you can do.
Then again housing benefit levels are too high..
That seems about right to me.
I suspect there will be nasty riots, some deaths, many more nasty injuries and a fair bit of wanton damage to property in a number of major cities for several weeks.
It will then gradually peter out and return to politics as normal.
I think a bigger problem is simply US styles of policing, which is quite aggressive, stern and trigger happy.
I don't know how you change that in a society where almost anyone could be carrying a gun.
Certainly is in this neck of the woods. Very rare to see anyone in one. Including me, although I do wear one when going to the pharmacy.
However my half-Thai grandchildren are not being allowed back to (private) school without one. Eldest of that set of granddaughters (14) wants a Gucci-designed one!
That blip has not shown up in the gov.uk slides so I was wondering if there was a more complete story behind it?
Anyone serious want to have a go?
But, OTOH, we have none of the pieces in place to deal with the virus in anything like normal existence. The testing regime probably still does not have sufficient capacity, it is certainly nowhere near fast enough, the staff who are going to deal with test and trace are still being employed, are yet to be organised and don't have technology such as the App to assist.
So do we wait? We can't afford to. We must muddle along as best as we can using social distancing, handwashing, gels and face masks in the hope that the R rate is kept at or ideally below 1 and we gradually open up more and more of our economy and economic activity watching anxiously in a distant mirror darkly which at best tells us what was happening 2-3 weeks ago.
It's not great and the government has not covered itself in glory. Testing capacity was not increased fast enough, the anti-body testing was massively too slow because of an obsession with accuracy which is important in the individual case but not so much in the big picture, obvious mistakes were made in the App development, we haven't learned enough from other country's mistakes and successes, for all the statistical fog we have clearly suffered more deaths than most and there is much more death to come.
Same here. If herd immunity is the strategy government is not going to say so. As it is quite possible - we shall find out - that it's the only policy available, government is not in an easy position with regard to truth telling.
You didn't need to be particularly clever or subtle to come up with a better cover story than his. As for common sense, the journey to Barnard Castle showed a complete lack.
He might actually have got away with the whole thing but for the BC adventure but it was such a transparent lie that you had to wonder whether the whole account was a complete work of fiction, starting with Mary's 'illness' and the late nite drive to Durham.
I sympathise with her point of view.
Increasingly, it seems, the best thing about America is the 3,000 miles of ocean between them and us...
If they're not sensible they'll escalate the trade wars.
There are many common strands though. A wealthy elite persuading blue collar folk to vote to defund the state by pushing social intolerance.
The Trumpites have a very conformist view of what it takes to be a patriotic American, just as we see here. If you see Europe as friends, neighbours and family, that is unpatriotic, if you find Poppyism and the WW1 and WW2 obsession a turn off, that is unpatriotic. If you think freedom means diversity and other people living differently in your town, that is unpatriotic etc etc...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
In short, to the extent people are wearing masks in non-clinical settings, they are probably nothing more than a security blanket for the frightened.
If we are being superficial.
Another four years of Trump though is an awful prospect.
https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/nicola-sturgeon-gives-herself-diy-18080198
1 more point than yours but its really not that far removed from what you say we need.
I will keep an eye out for the updated version from Monday. I expect it to be similar.
Nobody.
Some of course were the 'huddled masses yearning to be free' and others seeking a better life, and yet others are descended from people who were taken there in chains.
So how do we feel about the government now sidelining the medical science in favour of political expediency, as David's excellent header hints at?
I saw someone yesterday driving while wearing one (on his own in the car).
So in my view the timeframe of reopening is correct
It is not easy to forget the weird atmosphere there. The streets and pubs mostly empty, audible coughs from neighbours, the swirling lights of passing ambulances. The supermarket shelves emptying fast, the hospitals filling, the news of a fresh rise in deaths doubling every few days. The place seemed like a zombie apocalypse movie.
With the PM, and CMO ill, I can understand the desire to flee to the countryside with family. It was though a breach of government policy, as encouraging such moves certainly risked spread. Remember the criticism in press of those heading to second homes in West Country, Cumbria and Wales?
So he saw himself above the rules, and covered his tracks with a transparent tissue of lies. There were no witnesses or accounts of either Cummings or Wakefields illnesses, only of their sons. That was not Covid, and quite transient.
Was it all an episode of funk? With the first whiff of gunpowder, he broke for the rear.
The voter ID thing is a solution in search of a problem and has been widely agreed to have reduced participation by marginal groups.
The benefit cuts have caused widespread hardship as you yourself seem to recognise, but don't seem much bothered by. Food banks may have existed pre-2010 but their use has grown by many multiples since then as you know.
Trade unions overstepped the mark in the 1970s but their emasculation since then has helped to spread harmful work practices (Sports direct etc) and contributed to low pay growth.
I note you don't really engage with the nasty populism of the Leave campaign and the PM's own history of inflammatory language on race. Probably for the best.
Other European countries have higher levels of tax and social protection, especially our Northern European peers, and much less inequality as a result.
Honest.
So far as expediency is concerned I agree and set that out in my other post. Its not good but there are no alternatives given the economic imperative. The weird obsession with Cummings is an error, focussing on trivia rather than a £60bn deficit in a single month, but the conclusion is the same. We muddle on without the right safeguards or systems or testing because we must.
But then apparently they genuinely believed their own propaganda ahead of the local elections last year and were surprised at the outcome, so who knows.
I am certain there are good bits, there seems to be plenty of dangerous, bone-headed bits too.
I was head-hunted for a job in the US once for a specialist software company. I am glad I had the wit to turn it down.
You do not put yourself in danger in a shop by not wearing a mask. That isn't what they are meant to be for in that context. You do increase the theoretical risk to others, but (a) that risk is extremely low if you're practicing social distancing anyway, and (b) if almost none of them are bothering either then why should you - especially given that you may also be increasing the theoretical risk to yourself if the mask needs to be adjusted. We are told that the surface of masks can concentrate contamination from the surrounding environment and that we should not be touching our faces, both as a general principle and because we may end up contaminating ourselves directly with the virus through fiddling with the mask, but leaving the thing alone when it's hot or rubbing or falling off is somewhat easier said than done.
To the extent that one is at risk in a shop at all, you're a lot more likely to contract Covid-19 by handling a product that a carrier has already picked up and put back (because they needed to check the allergy information or use by date and deemed them unsuitable, or simply changed their mind,) but people aren't going to stop touching stuff and then putting it back on the shelf again for these reasons no matter how much the likes of you might have a fit over the practice, and nor can we reasonably expect them to do so.
Masks in non-clinical settings appear to be of limited value and it's arguable whether using them has more drawbacks than advantages. One can only assume that this is why they have not been made compulsory: because in reality they're less of a necessity for squashing the virus and more of a comfort blanket for the more anxious members of the population. If they were truly valuable then their use would surely be demanded by regulation? Since it isn't then we can assume that they are inessential, and act accordingly.
The point a system Boris wants is just creating a fair immigration system.
In Spain, Italy, the US and Canada you only get unemployment benefits if you have contributed via insurance, that is still not the case in the UK.
The US is a vast country.
That's just a ridiculous fantasy not a suggestion grounded in any reality. The government we have has a responsibility to step up, improve where it needs to, and if people want to make a case for a unity government that's possible (though I cannot see why labour would think it a good idea) but for all tribal behaviour is pretty bad in this country and I'd love it for them all to work together better, it's not tribal behaviour for the LoTO to not be included in formal decision making or communications. Certainly his position means he should be involved in discussion and he has a very important role at holding the government to account but since I doubt even Starmer woukd suggest what you have for him it may not be tribal to not do it
He bravely turned his tail and fled
A Stalin to Mr Bean level loss of reputation.
This from @Black_Rook sums it up for me.
Excellent header by @david_herdson. Thank you.
Boris is simply the wrong sort of PM for a time like this.
right, I'm actually howling at that.
you were doing so well for the first few minutes this morning as well ,...
Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/27/science.abc6197
Respiratory infections occur through the transmission of virus-containing droplets (>5 to 10 μm) and aerosols (≤5 μm) exhaled from infected individuals during breathing, speaking, coughing, and sneezing. Traditional respiratory disease control measures are designed to reduce transmission by droplets produced in the sneezes and coughs of infected individuals. However, a large proportion of the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) appears to be occurring through airborne transmission of aerosols produced by asymptomatic individuals during breathing and speaking (1–3). Aerosols can accumulate, remain infectious in indoor air for hours, and be easily inhaled deep into the lungs. For society to resume, measures designed to reduce aerosol transmission must be implemented, including universal masking and regular, widespread testing to identify and isolate infected asymptomatic individuals...
...Airborne transmission was determined to play a role during the SARS outbreak in 2003 (1, 4). However, many countries have not yet acknowledged airborne transmission as a possible pathway for SARS-CoV-2 (1). Recent studies have shown that in addition to droplets, SARS-CoV-2 may also be transmitted through aerosols. A study in hospitals in Wuhan, China, found SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols further than 6 ft from patients with higher concentrations detected in more crowded areas (8). Estimates using an average sputum viral load for SARS-CoV-2 indicate that 1 min of loud speaking could generate >1000 virion-containing aerosols (9). Assuming viral titers for infected super-emitters (with 100-fold higher viral load than average) yields an increase to more than 100,000 virions in emitted droplets per minute of speaking.
The World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations for social distancing of 6 ft and hand washing to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are based on studies of respiratory droplets carried out in the 1930s...
Previously if one of you reaches pension age then the bedroom tax did not apply and the rent would be paid in full. Hammond changed that and it now only applies when the younger of the two also reaches pension age.
It is a double blow for women over 60, for example if her husband is 66 and she is 62 then the bedroom tax applies, and having been told all her life that she would be getting the state pension at 60 it is taking the piss.
Go into any supermarket/DIY store (before the lockdown) and you will find a woman over 60 on the checkout that really dooesn't want to be there but has no choice.
I see nobody during the day. I go to a deserted supermarket at 9pm at night. What use is a mask?
See also the SAGE minute releases.
For what it’s worth, I think the truth is murky.
The scientists totally missed the real world data and provided terrible advice.
AND
Boris/Cummings had an ideological predisposition against lockdown which likely shaped the public response.
AND
Boris was distracted/asleep at the wheel during key periods.
AND
Overall govt response/organisation has been an absolute debacle.
Cummings’ name has been redacted in the SAGE reports I see.
Swing of 11% to Labour
Amazing times.
What a night that was.
logic.
What I don't buy into is the horrific notion that the lockdown easing activities might have been accelerated to deflect from the Cummings fiasco. I genuinely hope Mr Johnson can ride his luck and avoid a second wave. There are plenty on here suggesting a second wave as a result of early easing of restrictions is highly unlikely. If they are right what a fantastic call by Johnson, and in that event good luck to him.
1. Making joint citizenship illegal for people in HK forcing them to choose.
2. Saying that Chinese students should not go to British universities.
3. Closing down or seizing British owned businesses in China and/or HK.
4. Preventing British banks from operating in China or selling to Chinese customers.
And so on.
What reaction there would be to this from other countries I don’t know. But China is a nasty bully and the time has come to stop appeasing her. I am in favour of helping out Hong Kongers. We should offer them citizenship and a home here. I think we would benefit and it is the right thing to do IMO.
If this policy has come from Priti I find myself, once again, in the unexpected position of praising her. She has also been cunning enough not to tie herself to Cummings publicly.
It’s the most logical explanation for the odd communications coming from the government over the last week.
As well as dissent from some key scientists.
Based on the evidence from other countries that have lifted lockdown before us plus the evidence that people are going to continue to socially distance then it seems quite probable that R will remain below 1.
If that happens we won't reach herd immunity. There will be a long tail (flattening the curve graphs had this at the start) as the number of cases and deaths logarithmically trends down.
There will be far more economic devastation from ongoing social distancing than there will be increases in deaths. But I can't see an alternative as people will continue to voluntarily socially distance whether we want them to or not.
The reality is people are educated now and will take matters into their own hands. As is quite appropriate. The reality is people are worried about death not just for themselves but their friends and families too. Ultimately I don't want my loved ones to die far more than any politicians don't want them to die: to me my loved ones are precious to politicians they're tragic statistics if they do.
Taking precautions is logical and doesn't need enforcement.
Heading for “WTO” with the EU.
The beginning of what could be a trade war with China.
Relying on a US which is famed for its one-sided trade agreements...can’t see Trump prioritising it, nor Joe “Irish” Biden...