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  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    Would it be tasteless to suggest this might be natural selection?
    I almost think that hospitals ought to be able to turn away anyone who went to one of those protests then became sick.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887

    FF43 said:

    China sets the record strait on Taiwan: it's an internal civil war, but Chinese don't fight Chinese, and China reserves the right to use force.

    https://twitter.com/MahuiChina/status/1260866328463843328
    https://twitter.com/MahuiChina/status/1260866335170605057
    https://twitter.com/MahuiChina/status/1260866336256909312

    There is a big, and to the Chinese government hugely frustrating, contradiction on the status of Taiwan. China's position is that Taiwan is integral to its territory. In other words it doesn't matter a tiny bit what the people of Taiwan think, although the Chinese don't actually want to send the troops in. Taiwan doesn't object to reunification in principle although it distrusts the Chinese government in practice, Their point is that legitimacy comes from the people and it is entirely up to the people of Taiwan what they do.

    To be fair on this issue, China position of territorial integrity no matter what people in that territory think, is legally the same as many other countries. The United States for example.
    "Taiwan has been a part of China's territory since time immemoral" is a rather strong claim - I knew a Chinese-descent but pro-independence Taiwanese person who'd have argued strongly against that. The indigenous population was Austronesian (ie related to Polynesians, Indonesians/Malays, Filipino, Madagascans etc) and in fact the island is believed to be the place of origin of the entire Austronesian language group, from Malagasy in Madegascar to Hawaiian and Maori...).

    Though it was home to a small number of Han traders by the time the Europeans arrived, it went through 38 years of Dutch colonial rule (and in some places Spanish, with several Japanese expeditions having failed) before the Chinese conquered the island - initially in 1661, in alliance with anti-Dutch indigenous Formosans, by Ming loyalists fleeing the Manchu onslaught who were looking to set up a kind of "rebel province" they could use to recapture the rest of the country, in an odd foreshadowing of the KMT retreat to Taiwan. In 1683 they surrendered to the Qing dynasty, who seriously considered abandoning the island and withdrawing all ethnic Chinese to the mainland. After a change of imperial heart, the island was administered as part of China but largely leaving the old Dutch system of rule over the Formosans intact, and migration restrictions leaving the island with just a few thousands ethnic Chinese.

    Again foreshadowing Tibet and Xinjiang, the decision was made in 1760 to populate the island with millions of Chinese migrants, and the Formosans became a small minority. From 1895-1945 the Japanese controlled the island, then shortly after that the KMT retreat to Taiwan brought a lot of new mainlanders with them. Something which I've been told irked Taiwanese about the first few decades of KMT rule was that they effectively ran the place like just another colonialist - in their fantasy, the island was just a stepping stone to regaining control of the mainland again, and the political leadership was dominated by mainlander exiles rather than the Taiwanese-born. That, combined with their brutality and the increasingly obvious implausibility of their fantasy to reunite China under KMT rule, produced considerable dissent. The CCP's governance of the mainland from Xinjiang to HK hardly makes KMT's currently preferred "one country, two areas" appealing either and there are a considerable number of Taiwanese who would prefer independence as a long-term goal.
    It is a strong claim, although not one that the Kuomintang have challenged, I believe. Another interesting thing that no-one ever mentions is the very big Japanese influence on Taiwan, that exists to today. Japan ran the place for fifty years until 1945, overseeing the rapid economic development and a reasonably benign colonial government (certainly by the standards of the mainland operation after 1936, and also by the standards of the Kuomintang government in the early years after 1949.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    29% of population have had CV by middle of April...

    https://twitter.com/DrAdrianHeald/status/1260951024954638337?s=19

    Think they might to need turn it off and on again.

    That doesn't match what others have said at all - and would be tremendously good news if it were so, but I doubt it very much.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733
    tlg86 said:

    Would it be tasteless to suggest this might be natural selection?
    Most of them will survive.
    I was thinking of those that won't.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    nova said:


    If you ever want to feel old, subtract your age from your birth, and then look at what was happening in that year. Most people consider things that happened during their lives as relatively recent, and exaggerate just how far back "history" is :smile:

    When we look at the past in history books we seem to apply a kind of "time compression" where two dates a couple of years apart sound as if they happened one thing after the other ... whereas if you were living through those couple of years, you'd experience quite a space between them. Dates in ancient or even medieval history that were a couple of decades, or even centuries, apart somehow can seem "close" together!

    One of my favourite examples of this phenomenon: was Cleopatra's lifetime closer in time to the construction of the Great Pyramid or to Armstrong setting foot on the moon? In fact that's an old trick question and the answer is so substantially in favour of the moon landing it could be readily changed to "the Great Pyramid or the launch of the iPhone".
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733

    Would it be tasteless to suggest this might be natural selection?
    I almost think that hospitals ought to be able to turn away anyone who went to one of those protests then became sick.
    It's ok they have Obamacare...oh wait... In that case many probably will be turned away.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,364

    Transport for London (TfL) has secured £1.6bn in emergency funding to keep Tube and bus services running until September.

    That's the smallest surprise of the day. If you have a Transport Minister saying it's your "civic duty to avoid public transport" you can hardly be surprised if those providing the service suffer financially.

    The buses in London have been free since April 20th and tube passenger numbers are at least 90% below normal and that's with a 70% service. Social distancing means your tube train which would normally have 600 on board can only have 90 and that doesn't end well financially for Transport for London.

    Shaun Bailey, the Conservative mayoral hopeless, has tried to make some political capital out of this but imagine being a local authority (which TfL is financially) and the Government saying to your residents it's okay not to pay for your parking or your Council Tax.

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,490

    Transport for London (TfL) has secured £1.6bn in emergency funding to keep Tube and bus services running until September.

    Khan has been useless when not invisible, and TfL is in some trouble. If only the Tories had a viable candidate!

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526
    Omnium said:

    Transport for London (TfL) has secured £1.6bn in emergency funding to keep Tube and bus services running until September.

    Khan has been useless when not invisible, and TfL is in some trouble. If only the Tories had a viable candidate!

    Yet so much better than Boris in the job, according to the haters on here.....
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,683

    nova said:


    If you ever want to feel old, subtract your age from your birth, and then look at what was happening in that year. Most people consider things that happened during their lives as relatively recent, and exaggerate just how far back "history" is :smile:

    When we look at the past in history books we seem to apply a kind of "time compression" where two dates a couple of years apart sound as if they happened one thing after the other ... whereas if you were living through those couple of years, you'd experience quite a space between them. Dates in ancient or even medieval history that were a couple of decades, or even centuries, apart somehow can seem "close" together!

    One of my favourite examples of this phenomenon: was Cleopatra's lifetime closer in time to the construction of the Great Pyramid or to Armstrong setting foot on the moon? In fact that's an old trick question and the answer is so substantially in favour of the moon landing it could be readily changed to "the Great Pyramid or the launch of the iPhone".
    The most famous example of this time compression is that a significant number of people think humans and the dinosaurs co-existed (just because both were pre-historic) even though there was 55 miliion years (at least ) between them
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719
    Omnium said:

    Transport for London (TfL) has secured £1.6bn in emergency funding to keep Tube and bus services running until September.

    Khan has been useless when not invisible, and TfL is in some trouble. If only the Tories had a viable candidate!

    You do know that the Tories are spending a lot of public money on the railways at the moment?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,893

    Omnium said:

    Transport for London (TfL) has secured £1.6bn in emergency funding to keep Tube and bus services running until September.

    Khan has been useless when not invisible, and TfL is in some trouble. If only the Tories had a viable candidate!

    Yet so much better than Boris in the job, according to the haters on here.....
    If those who hate Boris are 'haters' what are those who hate Khan?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,490

    Omnium said:

    Transport for London (TfL) has secured £1.6bn in emergency funding to keep Tube and bus services running until September.

    Khan has been useless when not invisible, and TfL is in some trouble. If only the Tories had a viable candidate!

    Yet so much better than Boris in the job, according to the haters on here.....
    Boris was ok, Khan has been ok. Would you differ?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Here comes the weekly badbagpiper!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Easy solution. Make everyone pay €30 for the privilege of leaving their house.

    That will also solve Macron’s fiscal problem and leave the rest of us with an unparalleled opportunity to watch a 1789-style explosion.
    Should this regulation come with a guillotine clause?
    Yes, but it should also be paid through a Vendeeing machine.

    (That might be too subtle a pun, but we’ll see.)

    The most important function of the guillotine in 1793 was that it deCapetated the monarchy.
    A reference to the Vendee Revolt, of course :)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_the_Vendée
    Gold star for Sunil.

    Or perhaps, a drink. Would you like a Bourbon?
    I prefer Custard Creams :lol:
    They never occupied the French throne.
    But they did hobnob with those who did.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Andrew said:

    Here comes the weekly badbagpiper!

    I was about to say complete silence at this end, but one clapper has turned out about 30 seconds late... oh hang on, one clapper and one pot banger. Definitely down on previous weeks though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526

    Omnium said:

    Transport for London (TfL) has secured £1.6bn in emergency funding to keep Tube and bus services running until September.

    Khan has been useless when not invisible, and TfL is in some trouble. If only the Tories had a viable candidate!

    Yet so much better than Boris in the job, according to the haters on here.....
    If those who hate Boris are 'haters' what are those who hate Khan?
    Solid perceptive yeomen?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,232

    FF43 said:

    Monkeys said:

    Brexit will be status quo in short order. Indyref is harder to win if there's not free and open and frictionless trade with the rest of Europe. You can create enough doubt in people's minds just because the land border for Scotland is with England, not the EU. The SNP abstained on a lot of the meaningful votes, but voted against Customs Union, and I think that will come back to bite them.

    I have a little secret. The SNP voting against a Customs Union (not sure which vote that was) won't bite the SNP one bit.

    If it comes to a referendum, I'm not sure how voters will put their crosses. I think it could go to independence. At the moment we can say that Brexit is putting a lot of strain on the Union, not least by the irredentist approach to Brexit by the UKIPped Tory Party.
    The increasingly noticeable noises against devolution almost seem like a deliberate attempt to blow up the union.
    I've noticed that, and an increasing strain of British not Scottish which is the diametric opposite of the strain of Unionism presented before the 2014 referendum.

    I do wonder how much of it is instinctive Tory unionism which always loathed devolution (Labour & LD unionism is a bit of an irrelevance atm). If they could press a button that got rid of Holyrood without any electoral or constitutional consequences, I think even many of the reasonable ones would press away. Of course it could all be a deliberate, fully developed strategy, but the evidence of the last few years doesn't really support that view.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Clapping much diminished here this week.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    Omnium said:

    Transport for London (TfL) has secured £1.6bn in emergency funding to keep Tube and bus services running until September.

    Khan has been useless when not invisible, and TfL is in some trouble. If only the Tories had a viable candidate!

    Yet so much better than Boris in the job, according to the haters on here.....
    If those who hate Boris are 'haters' what are those who hate Khan?
    I don't know many who hate Khan.

    I do know many who think Khan is just rather shit at his job. Quite possible to do that without hating them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526
    edited May 2020
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Transport for London (TfL) has secured £1.6bn in emergency funding to keep Tube and bus services running until September.

    Khan has been useless when not invisible, and TfL is in some trouble. If only the Tories had a viable candidate!

    Yet so much better than Boris in the job, according to the haters on here.....
    Boris was ok, Khan has been ok. Would you differ?
    Boris surprised somewhat on the upside (London didn't slide into the Thames on his watch).

    Khan has surprised somewhat on the downside.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,490
    tlg86 said:

    Omnium said:

    Transport for London (TfL) has secured £1.6bn in emergency funding to keep Tube and bus services running until September.

    Khan has been useless when not invisible, and TfL is in some trouble. If only the Tories had a viable candidate!

    You do know that the Tories are spending a lot of public money on the railways at the moment?
    You surprise me! Oh well no you didn't.

    It is quite strange that railways never make a bean. Historically understandable due to debt, but not otherwise.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,045
    Genuine Pepys quote from 1664..
    ...I see the greatest businesses are done so superficially, that I wonder that anything succeeds at all among us that is public...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,232

    nova said:


    If you ever want to feel old, subtract your age from your birth, and then look at what was happening in that year. Most people consider things that happened during their lives as relatively recent, and exaggerate just how far back "history" is :smile:

    When we look at the past in history books we seem to apply a kind of "time compression" where two dates a couple of years apart sound as if they happened one thing after the other ... whereas if you were living through those couple of years, you'd experience quite a space between them. Dates in ancient or even medieval history that were a couple of decades, or even centuries, apart somehow can seem "close" together!

    One of my favourite examples of this phenomenon: was Cleopatra's lifetime closer in time to the construction of the Great Pyramid or to Armstrong setting foot on the moon? In fact that's an old trick question and the answer is so substantially in favour of the moon landing it could be readily changed to "the Great Pyramid or the launch of the iPhone".
    The most famous example of this time compression is that a significant number of people think humans and the dinosaurs co-existed (just because both were pre-historic) even though there was 55 miliion years (at least ) between them
    That's just Christian fundamentalist fruit loops rather than time compression isn't it?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    It looks like a full Tube service is going to return.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-full-london-tube-service-22029510
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699
    tlg86 said:

    Would it be tasteless to suggest this might be natural selection?
    Most of them will survive.
    Emerging stronger. :o
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    justin124 said:

    Clapping much diminished here this week.

    Not here.

  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,683

    nova said:


    If you ever want to feel old, subtract your age from your birth, and then look at what was happening in that year. Most people consider things that happened during their lives as relatively recent, and exaggerate just how far back "history" is :smile:

    When we look at the past in history books we seem to apply a kind of "time compression" where two dates a couple of years apart sound as if they happened one thing after the other ... whereas if you were living through those couple of years, you'd experience quite a space between them. Dates in ancient or even medieval history that were a couple of decades, or even centuries, apart somehow can seem "close" together!

    One of my favourite examples of this phenomenon: was Cleopatra's lifetime closer in time to the construction of the Great Pyramid or to Armstrong setting foot on the moon? In fact that's an old trick question and the answer is so substantially in favour of the moon landing it could be readily changed to "the Great Pyramid or the launch of the iPhone".
    The most famous example of this time compression is that a significant number of people think humans and the dinosaurs co-existed (just because both were pre-historic) even though there was 55 miliion years (at least ) between them
    That's just Christian fundamentalist fruit loops rather than time compression isn't it?
    God created the world in seven days ! Thats time compression! Imagine if he was on furlough that week!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,771

    nova said:


    If you ever want to feel old, subtract your age from your birth, and then look at what was happening in that year. Most people consider things that happened during their lives as relatively recent, and exaggerate just how far back "history" is :smile:

    When we look at the past in history books we seem to apply a kind of "time compression" where two dates a couple of years apart sound as if they happened one thing after the other ... whereas if you were living through those couple of years, you'd experience quite a space between them. Dates in ancient or even medieval history that were a couple of decades, or even centuries, apart somehow can seem "close" together!

    One of my favourite examples of this phenomenon: was Cleopatra's lifetime closer in time to the construction of the Great Pyramid or to Armstrong setting foot on the moon? In fact that's an old trick question and the answer is so substantially in favour of the moon landing it could be readily changed to "the Great Pyramid or the launch of the iPhone".
    The most famous example of this time compression is that a significant number of people think humans and the dinosaurs co-existed (just because both were pre-historic) even though there was 55 miliion years (at least ) between them
    That's just Christian fundamentalist fruit loops rather than time compression isn't it?
    And thinking the Flintstones is a documentary.

    Additional fun fact - Cleopatra lived less than a million days ago.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733
    edited May 2020

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Transport for London (TfL) has secured £1.6bn in emergency funding to keep Tube and bus services running until September.

    Khan has been useless when not invisible, and TfL is in some trouble. If only the Tories had a viable candidate!

    Yet so much better than Boris in the job, according to the haters on here.....
    Boris was ok, Khan has been ok. Would you differ?
    Boris surprised somewhat on the upside (London didn't slide into the Thames on his watch).

    Khan has surprised somewhat on the downside.
    Not really in either case, but Boris undoubtedly has an 'X' factor that the voters of London saw and I don't see.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,771
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    ukpaul said:

    justin124 said:

    Clapping much diminished here this week.

    Not here.

    Diminished here in the Midlands.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699
    The seventh world wide web really is crap.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719
    Omnium said:

    tlg86 said:

    Omnium said:

    Transport for London (TfL) has secured £1.6bn in emergency funding to keep Tube and bus services running until September.

    Khan has been useless when not invisible, and TfL is in some trouble. If only the Tories had a viable candidate!

    You do know that the Tories are spending a lot of public money on the railways at the moment?
    You surprise me! Oh well no you didn't.

    It is quite strange that railways never make a bean. Historically understandable due to debt, but not otherwise.
    Well in normal times I'd suggest that many railways could more than break even if they were allowed to raise fares to the optimum level.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,683
    IshmaelZ said:

    nova said:


    If you ever want to feel old, subtract your age from your birth, and then look at what was happening in that year. Most people consider things that happened during their lives as relatively recent, and exaggerate just how far back "history" is :smile:

    When we look at the past in history books we seem to apply a kind of "time compression" where two dates a couple of years apart sound as if they happened one thing after the other ... whereas if you were living through those couple of years, you'd experience quite a space between them. Dates in ancient or even medieval history that were a couple of decades, or even centuries, apart somehow can seem "close" together!

    One of my favourite examples of this phenomenon: was Cleopatra's lifetime closer in time to the construction of the Great Pyramid or to Armstrong setting foot on the moon? In fact that's an old trick question and the answer is so substantially in favour of the moon landing it could be readily changed to "the Great Pyramid or the launch of the iPhone".
    The most famous example of this time compression is that a significant number of people think humans and the dinosaurs co-existed (just because both were pre-historic) even though there was 55 miliion years (at least ) between them
    That's just Christian fundamentalist fruit loops rather than time compression isn't it?
    And thinking the Flintstones is a documentary.

    Additional fun fact - Cleopatra lived less than a million days ago.
    And she was Greek!
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    China sets the record strait on Taiwan: it's an internal civil war, but Chinese don't fight Chinese, and China reserves the right to use force.

    https://twitter.com/MahuiChina/status/1260866328463843328
    https://twitter.com/MahuiChina/status/1260866335170605057
    https://twitter.com/MahuiChina/status/1260866336256909312

    There is a big, and to the Chinese government hugely frustrating, contradiction on the status of Taiwan. China's position is that Taiwan is integral to its territory. In other words it doesn't matter a tiny bit what the people of Taiwan think, although the Chinese don't actually want to send the troops in. Taiwan doesn't object to reunification in principle although it distrusts the Chinese government in practice, Their point is that legitimacy comes from the people and it is entirely up to the people of Taiwan what they do.

    To be fair on this issue, China position of territorial integrity no matter what people in that territory think, is legally the same as many other countries. The United States for example.
    "Taiwan has been a part of China's territory since time immemoral" is a rather strong claim - I knew a Chinese-descent but pro-independence Taiwanese person who'd have argued strongly against that. The indigenous population was Austronesian (ie related to Polynesians, Indonesians/Malays, Filipino, Madagascans etc) and in fact the island is believed to be the place of origin of the entire Austronesian language group, from Malagasy in Madegascar to Hawaiian and Maori...).

    Though it was home to a small number of Han traders by the time the Europeans arrived, it went through 38 years of Dutch colonial rule (and in some places Spanish, with several Japanese expeditions having failed) before the Chinese conquered the island - initially in 1661, in alliance with anti-Dutch indigenous Formosans, by Ming loyalists fleeing the Manchu onslaught who were looking to set up a kind of "rebel province" they could use to recapture the rest of the country, in an odd foreshadowing of the KMT retreat to Taiwan. In 1683 they surrendered to the Qing dynasty, who seriously considered abandoning the island and withdrawing all ethnic Chinese to the mainland. After a change of imperial heart, the island was administered as part of China but largely leaving the old Dutch system of rule over the Formosans intact, and migration restrictions leaving the island with just a few thousands ethnic Chinese.

    Again foreshadowing Tibet and Xinjiang, the decision was made in 1760 to populate the island with millions of Chinese migrants, and the Formosans became a small minority. From 1895-1945 the Japanese controlled the island, then shortly after that the KMT retreat to Taiwan brought a lot of new mainlanders with them. Something which I've been told irked Taiwanese about the first few decades of KMT rule was that they effectively ran the place like just another colonialist - in their fantasy, the island was just a stepping stone to regaining control of the mainland again, and the political leadership was dominated by mainlander exiles rather than the Taiwanese-born. That, combined with their brutality and the increasingly obvious implausibility of their fantasy to reunite China under KMT rule, produced considerable dissent. The CCP's governance of the mainland from Xinjiang to HK hardly makes KMT's currently preferred "one country, two areas" appealing either and there are a considerable number of Taiwanese who would prefer independence as a long-term goal.
    It is a strong claim, although not one that the Kuomintang have challenged, I believe. Another interesting thing that no-one ever mentions is the very big Japanese influence on Taiwan, that exists to today. Japan ran the place for fifty years until 1945, overseeing the rapid economic development and a reasonably benign colonial government (certainly by the standards of the mainland operation after 1936, and also by the standards of the Kuomintang government in the early years after 1949.
    Most things that render Taiwan more "Chinese" suit the KMT agenda, at least for now. Bit of a come-down when after years of claiming you're only hanging out on this island because you're waiting your chance to take over the mainland (presumably with fingers crossed for some kind of collapse of communism / civil war scenario which gives you half a chance) you're now reduced to being Beijing's neighbourhood little helper.

    The Japanese colonial issue doesn't really suit anybody politically to shout about - except in terms of celebrating liberation from them - but actually legal scholars bring it up in one of the occasional arguments raised for Taiwan's right to self-determination:

    On the other hand, a number of supporters of Taiwan independence argue that Taiwan was only formally incorporated as a Chinese territory under the Qing Dynasty in 1683, and as a province in 1885. Subsequently, because of the Shimonoseki Treaty of 1895, Taiwan had been de jure part of Japan when the ROC was established in 1912 and thus was not part of the Chinese republic. Also, because the Cairo Declaration [At the Cairo Conference, the U.S., United Kingdom, and the ROC agreed that Taiwan was to be restored to the ROC after the war] was an unsigned press communiqué, the independence advocates argue that the legal effectiveness of the Declaration is highly questionable. Furthermore, they point out that the Instrument of Surrender of Japan was no more than an armistice, a "modus vivendi" in nature, which served as a temporary or provisional agreement that would be replaced with a peace treaty. Therefore, only a military occupation of Taiwan began on 25 October 1945, and both the Treaty of San Francisco and Treaty of Taipei hold legal supremacy over the surrender instrument. These treaties did not transfer the title of Taiwan from Japan to China. According to this argument, the sovereignty of Taiwan was returned to the people of Taiwan when Japan renounced sovereignty of Taiwan in the Treaty of San Francisco (also known as San Francisco Peace Treaty, SFPT) in 1951, based on the policy of self-determination which has been applied to "territories which detached from enemy states as a result of the Second World War" as defined by article 76b and 77b of the United Nations Charter and also by the protocol of the Yalta Conference. The United Nations General Assembly has not been particularly receptive to this argument, and the ROC's applications for admission to the United Nations have been rejected 15 times

    Most pro-independence types now rely on "popular sovereignty" as the bulwark of their argument but that's going to have a hard time in any legal forum.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,364
    Evening all :)

    It seems we continue to struggle with conflicting evidence as to the extent and spread of the virus and the consequent truth on mortality.

    Newham has 985 cases out of a population of 350,000 yet 269 deaths and 46% of all deaths in the Borough in March and April involved coronavirus.

    Nationally, the death toll may be between forty and fifth thousand so we're back to trying to guess the ratio of unreported cases to reported, I offered 20:1 last evening which would suggest 4.7 million have it or have had it and the mortality rate was around 1% which seems plausible.

    4.7 million is only about 6% of the population so we are a very long way from herd immunity yet other research shows many more people have it or have had it (albeit with very mild or no symptoms) yet other research contradicts that theory.

    We know there are roughly 16.5 million people over 60 in the UK. If we assume 90% of deaths are among those aged 60 and older and we'll call it 40,000 dead to make the maths easier that's 0.2% of the population. What I don't know is the concentration of cases by age group? We could theorise among the 4.7 million or so an even spread of cases so that's about 1.2 million actual cases among the over 60s which would suggest a 3% mortality rate among older people and a much lower figure among younger people.

    Back of a spreadsheet calculations to be honest.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,893
    IshmaelZ said:
    Thankfully - I can't abide the vanilla site.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    nova said:


    If you ever want to feel old, subtract your age from your birth, and then look at what was happening in that year. Most people consider things that happened during their lives as relatively recent, and exaggerate just how far back "history" is :smile:

    When we look at the past in history books we seem to apply a kind of "time compression" where two dates a couple of years apart sound as if they happened one thing after the other ... whereas if you were living through those couple of years, you'd experience quite a space between them. Dates in ancient or even medieval history that were a couple of decades, or even centuries, apart somehow can seem "close" together!

    One of my favourite examples of this phenomenon: was Cleopatra's lifetime closer in time to the construction of the Great Pyramid or to Armstrong setting foot on the moon? In fact that's an old trick question and the answer is so substantially in favour of the moon landing it could be readily changed to "the Great Pyramid or the launch of the iPhone".
    The most famous example of this time compression is that a significant number of people think humans and the dinosaurs co-existed (just because both were pre-historic) even though there was 55 miliion years (at least ) between them
    That's just Christian fundamentalist fruit loops rather than time compression isn't it?
    And thinking the Flintstones is a documentary.

    Additional fun fact - Cleopatra lived less than a million days ago.
    And she was Greek!
    I wonder if she's related to the Duke of Edinburgh?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,364


    Boris surprised somewhat on the upside (London didn't slide into the Thames on his watch).

    Khan has surprised somewhat on the downside.

    This week's winner of the "you would say that, you wouldn't you" award....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594

    Would it be tasteless to suggest this might be natural selection?
    Live free and die.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Transport for London (TfL) has secured £1.6bn in emergency funding to keep Tube and bus services running until September.

    Khan has been useless when not invisible, and TfL is in some trouble. If only the Tories had a viable candidate!

    Yet so much better than Boris in the job, according to the haters on here.....
    Boris was ok, Khan has been ok. Would you differ?
    Boris surprised somewhat on the upside (London didn't slide into the Thames on his watch).

    Khan has surprised somewhat on the downside.
    On Boris, true, London didn't slide into the Thames, although the £53.5 million spent on the garden bridge sank without trace.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,272

    So why is Nadine Dorries sharing far right fake news when she's a health minister during a pandemic?

    Do you really need to ask?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,490

    IshmaelZ said:

    nova said:


    If you ever want to feel old, subtract your age from your birth, and then look at what was happening in that year. Most people consider things that happened during their lives as relatively recent, and exaggerate just how far back "history" is :smile:

    When we look at the past in history books we seem to apply a kind of "time compression" where two dates a couple of years apart sound as if they happened one thing after the other ... whereas if you were living through those couple of years, you'd experience quite a space between them. Dates in ancient or even medieval history that were a couple of decades, or even centuries, apart somehow can seem "close" together!

    One of my favourite examples of this phenomenon: was Cleopatra's lifetime closer in time to the construction of the Great Pyramid or to Armstrong setting foot on the moon? In fact that's an old trick question and the answer is so substantially in favour of the moon landing it could be readily changed to "the Great Pyramid or the launch of the iPhone".
    The most famous example of this time compression is that a significant number of people think humans and the dinosaurs co-existed (just because both were pre-historic) even though there was 55 miliion years (at least ) between them
    That's just Christian fundamentalist fruit loops rather than time compression isn't it?
    And thinking the Flintstones is a documentary.

    Additional fun fact - Cleopatra lived less than a million days ago.
    And she was Greek!
    I wonder if she's related to the Duke of Edinburgh?
    Bloody marvelous if she is!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,893

    IshmaelZ said:

    nova said:


    If you ever want to feel old, subtract your age from your birth, and then look at what was happening in that year. Most people consider things that happened during their lives as relatively recent, and exaggerate just how far back "history" is :smile:

    When we look at the past in history books we seem to apply a kind of "time compression" where two dates a couple of years apart sound as if they happened one thing after the other ... whereas if you were living through those couple of years, you'd experience quite a space between them. Dates in ancient or even medieval history that were a couple of decades, or even centuries, apart somehow can seem "close" together!

    One of my favourite examples of this phenomenon: was Cleopatra's lifetime closer in time to the construction of the Great Pyramid or to Armstrong setting foot on the moon? In fact that's an old trick question and the answer is so substantially in favour of the moon landing it could be readily changed to "the Great Pyramid or the launch of the iPhone".
    The most famous example of this time compression is that a significant number of people think humans and the dinosaurs co-existed (just because both were pre-historic) even though there was 55 miliion years (at least ) between them
    That's just Christian fundamentalist fruit loops rather than time compression isn't it?
    And thinking the Flintstones is a documentary.

    Additional fun fact - Cleopatra lived less than a million days ago.
    And she was Greek!
    I wonder if she's related to the Duke of Edinburgh?
    If she has any living decendants, the answer is incontravertably yes.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,364
    Andy_JS said:
    It seems a condition of the funding that a full tube service is operated, In effect, Transport for London is being nationalised or as it is a local authority, put under the supervision of commissioners from central Government.

    A full service of empty trains to replace a part service of empty trains especially when we are told by the Minister of Transport it is our "civic duty" to avoid public transport.

    I imagine that's left @HYUFD conflicted as he was intending to be on the tube from Epping on the first day after lockdown suitably attired with a face mask. Presumably it will be his "civic duty" to cycle to work from now on.

    My contempt for Shapps has reached new heights (or depths) tonight.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649

    ukpaul said:

    justin124 said:

    Clapping much diminished here this week.

    Not here.

    Diminished here in the Midlands.
    People round here generally working class, appreciate anyone putting themselves at risk. Quite a lot of health workers. It’s a bit weird seeing people advertising the misery of their neighbours, though.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,585
    edited May 2020

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    China sets the record strait on Taiwan: it's an internal civil war, but Chinese don't fight Chinese, and China reserves the right to use force.

    https://twitter.com/MahuiChina/status/1260866328463843328
    https://twitter.com/MahuiChina/status/1260866335170605057
    https://twitter.com/MahuiChina/status/1260866336256909312

    There is a big, and to the Chinese government hugely frustrating, contradiction on the status of Taiwan. China's position is that Taiwan is integral to its territory. In other words it doesn't matter a tiny bit what the people of Taiwan think, although the Chinese don't actually want to send the troops in. Taiwan doesn't object to reunification in principle although it distrusts the Chinese government in practice, Their point is that legitimacy comes from the people and it is entirely up to the people of Taiwan what they do.

    To be fair on this issue, China position of territorial integrity no matter what people in that territory think, is legally the same as many other countries. The United States for example.
    "Taiwan has been a part of China's territory since time immemoral" is a rather strong claim - I knew a Chinese-descent but pro-independence Taiwanese person who'd have argued strongly against that. The indigenous population was Austronesian (ie related to Polynesians, Indonesians/Malays, Filipino, Madagascans etc) and in fact the island is believed to be the place of origin of the entire Austronesian language group, from Malagasy in Madegascar to Hawaiian and Maori...).

    Though it was home to a small number of Han traders by the time the Europeans arrived, it went through 38 years of Dutch colonial rule (and in some places Spanish, with several Japanese expeditions having failed) before the Chinese conquered the island - initially in 1661, in alliance with anti-Dutch indigenous Formosans, by Ming loyalists fleeing the Manchu onslaught who were looking to set up a kind of "rebel province" they could use to recapture the rest of the country, in an odd foreshadowing of the KMT retreat to Taiwan. In 1683 they surrendered to the Qing dynasty, who seriously considered abandoning the island and withdrawing all ethnic Chinese to the mainland. After a change of imperial heart, the island was administered as part of China but largely leaving the old Dutch system of rule over the Formosans intact, and migration restrictions leaving the island with just a few thousands ethnic Chinese.

    Again foreshadowing Tibet and Xinjiang, the decision was made in 1760 to populate the island with millions of Chinese migrants, and the Formosans became a small minority. From 1895-1945 the Japanese controlled the island, then shortly after that the KMT retreat to Taiwan brought a lot of new mainlanders with them. Something which I've been told irked Taiwanese about the first few decades of KMT rule was that they effectively ran the place like just another colonialist - in their fantasy, the island was just a stepping stone to regaining control of the mainland again, and the political leadership was dominated by mainlander exiles rather than the Taiwanese-born. That, combined with their brutality and the increasingly obvious implausibility of their fantasy to reunite China under KMT rule, produced considerable dissent. The CCP's governance of the mainland from Xinjiang to HK hardly makes KMT's currently preferred "one country, two areas" appealing either and there are a considerable number of Taiwanese who would prefer independence as a long-term goal.
    It is a strong claim, although not one that the Kuomintang have challenged, I believe. Another interesting thing that no-one ever mentions is the very big Japanese influence on Taiwan, that exists to today. Japan ran the place for fifty years until 1945, overseeing the rapid economic development and a reasonably benign colonial government (certainly by the standards of the mainland operation after 1936, and also by the standards of the Kuomintang government in the early years after 1949.
    Most pro-independence types now rely on "popular sovereignty" as the bulwark of their argument but that's going to have a hard time in any legal forum.
    And yet popular self-determination has been supposed to be a fundamental part of international law since 1945.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013
    I know its commonly observed that Johnson looks tired - so does Ms Sturgeon (and no little wonder):

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1261010466484224000?s=20
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 210
    Some pretty blatant politicing going on around the TfL bailout. If reports of a £3.2bn funding shortfall for this year are correct, then that £1.6bn isn't going to last long.

    https://www.londonreconnections.com/2020/tfl-the-impossible-finances-of-fighting-a-pandemic/

    If I was Grant Shapps I'd use this opportunity to break the unions. Never let a crisis go to waste, as they say.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,343
    Wor Lass has asked me to wear a face covering in the house.

    Nothing to do with the virus, but after 2 months lockdown she's sick of the sight of me.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,753
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,893
    guybrush said:

    Some pretty blatant politicing going on around the TfL bailout. If reports of a £3.2bn funding shortfall for this year are correct, then that £1.6bn isn't going to last long.

    https://www.londonreconnections.com/2020/tfl-the-impossible-finances-of-fighting-a-pandemic/

    If I was Grant Shapps I'd use this opportunity to break the unions. Never let a crisis go to waste, as they say.

    How do you suggest he does that?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    It seems we continue to struggle with conflicting evidence as to the extent and spread of the virus and the consequent truth on mortality.

    Newham has 985 cases out of a population of 350,000 yet 269 deaths and 46% of all deaths in the Borough in March and April involved coronavirus.

    Nationally, the death toll may be between forty and fifth thousand so we're back to trying to guess the ratio of unreported cases to reported, I offered 20:1 last evening which would suggest 4.7 million have it or have had it and the mortality rate was around 1% which seems plausible.

    4.7 million is only about 6% of the population so we are a very long way from herd immunity yet other research shows many more people have it or have had it (albeit with very mild or no symptoms) yet other research contradicts that theory.

    We know there are roughly 16.5 million people over 60 in the UK. If we assume 90% of deaths are among those aged 60 and older and we'll call it 40,000 dead to make the maths easier that's 0.2% of the population. What I don't know is the concentration of cases by age group? We could theorise among the 4.7 million or so an even spread of cases so that's about 1.2 million actual cases among the over 60s which would suggest a 3% mortality rate among older people and a much lower figure among younger people.

    Back of a spreadsheet calculations to be honest.

    The Guardian published this piece on the UK Covid death stats yesterday, suggesting that over-65s were 34 times more likely to perish of the virus than over-65s:


    As Britain edges back to work and employees consider the risks of moving beyond lockdown, official figures underscore that over-65s are 34 times more likely to die of coronavirus than working-age Britons.

    About 12% of all deaths relating to Covid-19 have occurred among those under 65 – a total of 4,066 deaths. Most victims have been in the over-65 category, accounting for 30,978 fatalities.

    There have been 8.4 deaths per 100,000 people among the under-65 category, which rises to 286 deaths per 100,000 in the over-65 group.

    The contrast is even starker in data concerning those under 45. According to the Office for National Statistics figure, there have been just 401 deaths in this age group – one death for every 100,000 people, or around 1% of the overall death toll.


    Source: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/may/13/pensioners-34-times-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-than-working-age-brits-data-shows

    Approximately 94% of all deaths from Covid-19 recorded so far in the UK have been amongst people aged 60 or over. This is entirely consistent with similar data recently revealed from Italy and Sweden.
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 282
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    It seems we continue to struggle with conflicting evidence as to the extent and spread of the virus and the consequent truth on mortality.

    Newham has 985 cases out of a population of 350,000 yet 269 deaths and 46% of all deaths in the Borough in March and April involved coronavirus.

    Nationally, the death toll may be between forty and fifth thousand so we're back to trying to guess the ratio of unreported cases to reported, I offered 20:1 last evening which would suggest 4.7 million have it or have had it and the mortality rate was around 1% which seems plausible.

    4.7 million is only about 6% of the population so we are a very long way from herd immunity yet other research shows many more people have it or have had it (albeit with very mild or no symptoms) yet other research contradicts that theory.

    We know there are roughly 16.5 million people over 60 in the UK. If we assume 90% of deaths are among those aged 60 and older and we'll call it 40,000 dead to make the maths easier that's 0.2% of the population. What I don't know is the concentration of cases by age group? We could theorise among the 4.7 million or so an even spread of cases so that's about 1.2 million actual cases among the over 60s which would suggest a 3% mortality rate among older people and a much lower figure among younger people.

    Back of a spreadsheet calculations to be honest.

    i think your numbers are sensible. but one issue is that the 20:1 may have been right but for new cases the number is falling rapidly.; it might be 5:1 now. so whilst more testing is essential for us to get over this, it also disguises how fast the cases are falling.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733
    stodge said:


    Boris surprised somewhat on the upside (London didn't slide into the Thames on his watch).

    Khan has surprised somewhat on the downside.

    This week's winner of the "you would say that, you wouldn't you" award....
    The Mandy Rice-Davies award?
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 210

    guybrush said:

    Some pretty blatant politicing going on around the TfL bailout. If reports of a £3.2bn funding shortfall for this year are correct, then that £1.6bn isn't going to last long.

    https://www.londonreconnections.com/2020/tfl-the-impossible-finances-of-fighting-a-pandemic/

    If I was Grant Shapps I'd use this opportunity to break the unions. Never let a crisis go to waste, as they say.

    How do you suggest he does that?
    Issue new contracts, along with a change of the IR machinary? Classify as essential workers? I'm not saying it's easy, but there's a lot that can be done with a 80 seat majority and a mayor with very little political leverage. Not that I am advocating such a course, up the workers, etc.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,272
    ydoethur said:

    Wales worst region by far in England and Wales for covid 19 infection rates

    Wales needs to throw out labour in 2021

    To be blunt, BigG, although I agree with you on the need short of an absolutely sensational result it’s damned difficult to see any government being formed that doesn’t include Labour.

    I think Tories - most seats but a Labour-Plaid-Green (if any) coalition government would be a reasonable bet. The snag is that unless the Tories or Plaid win an outright majority, one of which is out of the question and the other of which is extremely unlikely, then Plaid will almost certainly back Labour ahead of the Tories.
    The fact that the Tories have no obvious allies in either Wales or Scotland is going to make it extremely difficult for them to form a government under their PR systems.

    As Labour appear more electable in 2024 the Tories will have a similar problem, The LD's, Nat's and Greens would be very unlikely to enter a coalition with them. First-Past-the-Post will ride to their rescue again I expect.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,364


    The Guardian published this piece on the UK Covid death stats yesterday, suggesting that over-65s were 34 times more likely to perish of the virus than over-65s:


    As Britain edges back to work and employees consider the risks of moving beyond lockdown, official figures underscore that over-65s are 34 times more likely to die of coronavirus than working-age Britons.

    About 12% of all deaths relating to Covid-19 have occurred among those under 65 – a total of 4,066 deaths. Most victims have been in the over-65 category, accounting for 30,978 fatalities.

    There have been 8.4 deaths per 100,000 people among the under-65 category, which rises to 286 deaths per 100,000 in the over-65 group.

    The contrast is even starker in data concerning those under 45. According to the Office for National Statistics figure, there have been just 401 deaths in this age group – one death for every 100,000 people, or around 1% of the overall death toll.

    Source: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/may/13/pensioners-34-times-more-likely-to-die-of-covid-19-than-working-age-brits-data-shows

    Approximately 94% of all deaths from Covid-19 recorded so far in the UK have been amongst people aged 60 or over. This is entirely consistent with similar data recently revealed from Italy and Sweden.

    Okay, I think that puts the true death figure just north of 50,000. The ONS figures would produce 47,500 deaths among the over 65s and about 4,000 in the rest of the population so that's not far from my back-of-an-envelope calculations.

    That doesn't help us identify how many cases there have been to get a true picture of mortality - the worrying thing is with the ONS figures the mortality rate among over 65s reaches 4%.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    OllyT said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wales worst region by far in England and Wales for covid 19 infection rates

    Wales needs to throw out labour in 2021

    To be blunt, BigG, although I agree with you on the need short of an absolutely sensational result it’s damned difficult to see any government being formed that doesn’t include Labour.

    I think Tories - most seats but a Labour-Plaid-Green (if any) coalition government would be a reasonable bet. The snag is that unless the Tories or Plaid win an outright majority, one of which is out of the question and the other of which is extremely unlikely, then Plaid will almost certainly back Labour ahead of the Tories.
    The fact that the Tories have no obvious allies in either Wales or Scotland is going to make it extremely difficult for them to form a government under their PR systems.

    As Labour appear more electable in 2024 the Tories will have a similar problem, The LD's, Nat's and Greens would be very unlikely to enter a coalition with them. First-Past-the-Post will ride to their rescue again I expect.
    Whenever the conversation turns to the Tories' Hung Parliament problems, I always wonder how many English Conservatives would secretly welcome the break-up of Britain. Scottish independence would render their position vastly more secure.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,045
    TimT said:

    Nigelb said:

    TimT said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Promising.

    ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination prevents SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in rhesus macaques
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.093195v1
    Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in December 20191,2 and is responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic3. Vaccines are an essential countermeasure urgently needed to control the pandemic4. Here, we show that the adenovirus-vectored vaccine ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, encoding the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is immunogenic in mice, eliciting a robust humoral and cell-mediated response. This response was not Th2 dominated, as demonstrated by IgG subclass and cytokine expression profiling. A single vaccination with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 induced a humoral and cellular immune response in rhesus macaques. We observed a significantly reduced viral load in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and respiratory tract tissue of vaccinated animals challenged with SARS-CoV-2 compared with control animals, and no pneumonia was observed in vaccinated rhesus macaques. Importantly, no evidence of immune-enhanced disease following viral challenge in vaccinated animals was observed. ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 is currently under investigation in a phase I clinical trial. Safety, immunogenicity and efficacy against symptomatic PCR-positive COVID-19 disease will now be assessed in randomised controlled human clinical trials.

    The vaccinated animals did show viral shedding from the upper respiratory tract, but this was a very high dosage viral challenge trial, likely well in excess of any normal human exposure.

    And contrast with similar studies for the original SARS virus vaccines, which...resulted in immunopathology after vaccination and challenge, with more severe disease in vaccinated animals than in controls...
    Thanks, once again, Nigel for posting this. Very promising indeed.
    No problem.
    I'm always happier posting good news.
    Was on a very interesting call with a synthetic biology biosecurity crowd on Tuesday - a mixture of academics, entrepreneurs, angel investors, law enforcement, military and intelligence types (Chatham House rules).

    Very interesting presentations on empirical analysis of measures taken vs trust in government, and on information flows.

    In short, there seems to be no correlation between measures espoused and outcomes, but fairly strong correlation with trust in government and good outcomes. In other words, the actual strategy for combatting COVID does not seem that important, it is the degree of implementation. So the Swedish model could well work in Sweden, but not in the UK. And the Vietnam model could work there, but not in the US. And so on.

    And on the information side, the Economist model of "democracies do better because of free flow of information" seems just wrong - too much information without screening for quality or actionability (US, UK) is not useful; moderated and directed access to information in a more centralized manner (Vietnam) seems to have been more effective; and, as one would expect, telling people what they can do, rather than what they should not, is also more effective.

    If you're interested, I'll dig out the papers to send.
    That sounds interesting, and intuitively persuasive; please.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,524
    justin124 said:

    Clapping much diminished here this week.

    Because it's institutionally racist
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,740

    Would it be tasteless to suggest this might be natural selection?
    Live free and die.

    Laughing at Trump supporters is one thing but if these people caught Covid-19 at the rally then outdoor spread is more viable than thought so most likely is these unfortunate and misguided people actually caught it somewhere else, perhaps at their secret underground lair where the anti-lockdown rally was planned.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,775
    When Trump kicks the bucket I hope his brain is left to science so that we can find out precisely what the hell was wrong with him, and then to ensure that no similarly afflicted people are ever given any responsibility ever again.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,364
    guybrush said:


    Issue new contracts, along with a change of the IR machinary? Classify as essential workers? I'm not saying it's easy, but there's a lot that can be done with a 80 seat majority and a mayor with very little political leverage. Not that I am advocating such a course, up the workers, etc.

    The problem is Shapps has made a huge gaffe tonight by telling people it's their "civic duty" to avoid public transport. All operators, both public and private, will be screaming as the Government has told their customers not to use the product.

    Imagine what Tesco, Sainsbury and Aldi would say if the Government said it is "civic duty" not to shop in supermarkets.

    Telling people not to use public transport is not going to help people back to work - if you live in East Ham and work on a construction site in Ealing the tube is the only way to get to work - you can't very well walk.

    We will end up with operators running empty trains and the Government throwing even more money away.

    It might have been better, as some countries did, to have shut down public transport as part of the lock down and provided taxis for key worker. The current situation is absurd and Shapps's position even more so.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    So wait, in France you can be fined for failing to wear a mask?

    I though you could be fined for wearing face covering in France.

    That's a bit catch 22.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,694
    O/T and hopefully a simple answer

    I have a few outstanding bets with Ladbrokes that have been labelled as "SUSP" *I assume suspended) and which are not listed in faded grey. Does that mean that Ladbrokes do not pay out if these bets theoretically come up or that they have withdrawn the bets from the market (which they have - my bets were on the Democratic nominee)?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,725
    Nigelb said:

    TimT said:

    Nigelb said:

    TimT said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Promising.

    ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination prevents SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in rhesus macaques
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.093195v1
    Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in December 20191,2 and is responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic3. Vaccines are an essential countermeasure urgently needed to control the pandemic4. Here, we show that the adenovirus-vectored vaccine ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, encoding the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is immunogenic in mice, eliciting a robust humoral and cell-mediated response. This response was not Th2 dominated, as demonstrated by IgG subclass and cytokine expression profiling. A single vaccination with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 induced a humoral and cellular immune response in rhesus macaques. We observed a significantly reduced viral load in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and respiratory tract tissue of vaccinated animals challenged with SARS-CoV-2 compared with control animals, and no pneumonia was observed in vaccinated rhesus macaques. Importantly, no evidence of immune-enhanced disease following viral challenge in vaccinated animals was observed. ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 is currently under investigation in a phase I clinical trial. Safety, immunogenicity and efficacy against symptomatic PCR-positive COVID-19 disease will now be assessed in randomised controlled human clinical trials.

    The vaccinated animals did show viral shedding from the upper respiratory tract, but this was a very high dosage viral challenge trial, likely well in excess of any normal human exposure.

    And contrast with similar studies for the original SARS virus vaccines, which...resulted in immunopathology after vaccination and challenge, with more severe disease in vaccinated animals than in controls...
    Thanks, once again, Nigel for posting this. Very promising indeed.
    No problem.
    I'm always happier posting good news.
    Was on a very interesting call with a synthetic biology biosecurity crowd on Tuesday - a mixture of academics, entrepreneurs, angel investors, law enforcement, military and intelligence types (Chatham House rules).

    Very interesting presentations on empirical analysis of measures taken vs trust in government, and on information flows.

    In short, there seems to be no correlation between measures espoused and outcomes, but fairly strong correlation with trust in government and good outcomes. In other words, the actual strategy for combatting COVID does not seem that important, it is the degree of implementation. So the Swedish model could well work in Sweden, but not in the UK. And the Vietnam model could work there, but not in the US. And so on.

    And on the information side, the Economist model of "democracies do better because of free flow of information" seems just wrong - too much information without screening for quality or actionability (US, UK) is not useful; moderated and directed access to information in a more centralized manner (Vietnam) seems to have been more effective; and, as one would expect, telling people what they can do, rather than what they should not, is also more effective.

    If you're interested, I'll dig out the papers to send.
    That sounds interesting, and intuitively persuasive; please.
    Sent you a PM
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,045

    Does anyone know what the best place is to find what percentage the BAME populations of the UK, Sweden, Italy, Germany, and France are?

    I have this supposition that the death figures need some adjustment based on BAME populations.

    Sweden doesn’t collect those figures as a matter of policy.
  • Nigelb said:

    Does anyone know what the best place is to find what percentage the BAME populations of the UK, Sweden, Italy, Germany, and France are?

    I have this supposition that the death figures need some adjustment based on BAME populations.

    Sweden doesn’t collect those figures as a matter of policy.
    Thanks.
  • tysontyson Posts: 5,979
    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like a full Tube service is going to return.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-full-london-tube-service-22029510</blockquote

    Well if the ONS data is right and the nation is catching this virus at a painstakingly slow 75k per week, it'll take about 15 years to achieve herd at this rate.....

    shove em in the tube, and establish every other mass gathering possible...indoors...not Glasto.....

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309
    Has Grant Shapps actually nationalised TFL and taken it over ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    OllyT said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wales worst region by far in England and Wales for covid 19 infection rates

    Wales needs to throw out labour in 2021

    To be blunt, BigG, although I agree with you on the need short of an absolutely sensational result it’s damned difficult to see any government being formed that doesn’t include Labour.

    I think Tories - most seats but a Labour-Plaid-Green (if any) coalition government would be a reasonable bet. The snag is that unless the Tories or Plaid win an outright majority, one of which is out of the question and the other of which is extremely unlikely, then Plaid will almost certainly back Labour ahead of the Tories.
    The fact that the Tories have no obvious allies in either Wales or Scotland is going to make it extremely difficult for them to form a government under their PR systems.

    As Labour appear more electable in 2024 the Tories will have a similar problem, The LD's, Nat's and Greens would be very unlikely to enter a coalition with them. First-Past-the-Post will ride to their rescue again I expect.
    Whenever the conversation turns to the Tories' Hung Parliament problems, I always wonder how many English Conservatives would secretly welcome the break-up of Britain. Scottish independence would render their position vastly more secure.
    I think I'm the only Tory on this site that openly welcomes the break-up of Britain.
  • tysontyson Posts: 5,979

    Has Grant Shapps actually nationalised TFL and taken it over ?

    I think by the time we get through Covid 19....without a vaccine and years maybe from now....I don't know what won't be nationalised.....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309

    OllyT said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wales worst region by far in England and Wales for covid 19 infection rates

    Wales needs to throw out labour in 2021

    To be blunt, BigG, although I agree with you on the need short of an absolutely sensational result it’s damned difficult to see any government being formed that doesn’t include Labour.

    I think Tories - most seats but a Labour-Plaid-Green (if any) coalition government would be a reasonable bet. The snag is that unless the Tories or Plaid win an outright majority, one of which is out of the question and the other of which is extremely unlikely, then Plaid will almost certainly back Labour ahead of the Tories.
    The fact that the Tories have no obvious allies in either Wales or Scotland is going to make it extremely difficult for them to form a government under their PR systems.

    As Labour appear more electable in 2024 the Tories will have a similar problem, The LD's, Nat's and Greens would be very unlikely to enter a coalition with them. First-Past-the-Post will ride to their rescue again I expect.
    Whenever the conversation turns to the Tories' Hung Parliament problems, I always wonder how many English Conservatives would secretly welcome the break-up of Britain. Scottish independence would render their position vastly more secure.
    I think I'm the only Tory on this site that openly welcomes the break-up of Britain.
    Most probably
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Alistair said:

    So wait, in France you can be fined for failing to wear a mask?

    I though you could be fined for wearing face covering in France.

    That's a bit catch 22.


    Fine em for not wearing a mask, then when they don said mask, fine em again. Double income for the state, very efficient.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,343
    tyson said:

    Has Grant Shapps actually nationalised TFL and taken it over ?

    I think by the time we get through Covid 19....without a vaccine and years maybe from now....I don't know what won't be nationalised.....
    Nice to know there is a silver lining.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    Andrew said:

    Alistair said:

    So wait, in France you can be fined for failing to wear a mask?

    I though you could be fined for wearing face covering in France.

    That's a bit catch 22.


    Fine em for not wearing a mask, then when they don said mask, fine em again. Double income for the state, very efficient.
    Very French....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,103
    edited May 2020

    Andrew said:

    Alistair said:

    So wait, in France you can be fined for failing to wear a mask?

    I though you could be fined for wearing face covering in France.

    That's a bit catch 22.


    Fine em for not wearing a mask, then when they don said mask, fine em again. Double income for the state, very efficient.
    Very French....
    The number of fines issued in France is eyewatering....
  • tysontyson Posts: 5,979

    tyson said:

    Has Grant Shapps actually nationalised TFL and taken it over ?

    I think by the time we get through Covid 19....without a vaccine and years maybe from now....I don't know what won't be nationalised.....
    Nice to know there is a silver lining.
    It could have been worse...there could have been a nuclear war....don't forget we've had a deranged madman at the helm of the US these last years

    We have to take the positives when you can take them....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    Coronavirus vaccine taken by tablet instead of injection is about to go into human trials - and scientist in charge says he believes there WILL be a vaccine by next year

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8320209/Coronavirus-vaccine-taken-tablet-instead-injection-human-trials.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699

    Coronavirus vaccine taken by tablet instead of injection is about to go into human trials - and scientist in charge says he believes there WILL be a vaccine by next year

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8320209/Coronavirus-vaccine-taken-tablet-instead-injection-human-trials.html

    Any update from the Oxford team?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,834

    OllyT said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wales worst region by far in England and Wales for covid 19 infection rates

    Wales needs to throw out labour in 2021

    To be blunt, BigG, although I agree with you on the need short of an absolutely sensational result it’s damned difficult to see any government being formed that doesn’t include Labour.

    I think Tories - most seats but a Labour-Plaid-Green (if any) coalition government would be a reasonable bet. The snag is that unless the Tories or Plaid win an outright majority, one of which is out of the question and the other of which is extremely unlikely, then Plaid will almost certainly back Labour ahead of the Tories.
    The fact that the Tories have no obvious allies in either Wales or Scotland is going to make it extremely difficult for them to form a government under their PR systems.

    As Labour appear more electable in 2024 the Tories will have a similar problem, The LD's, Nat's and Greens would be very unlikely to enter a coalition with them. First-Past-the-Post will ride to their rescue again I expect.
    Whenever the conversation turns to the Tories' Hung Parliament problems, I always wonder how many English Conservatives would secretly welcome the break-up of Britain. Scottish independence would render their position vastly more secure.
    I think I'm the only Tory on this site that openly welcomes the break-up of Britain.
    It isn't going to happen, so I'm afraid you'll have to remain closed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    RobD said:

    Coronavirus vaccine taken by tablet instead of injection is about to go into human trials - and scientist in charge says he believes there WILL be a vaccine by next year

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8320209/Coronavirus-vaccine-taken-tablet-instead-injection-human-trials.html

    Any update from the Oxford team?
    I believe mid June is when they will have an idea if this could be a goer.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699

    RobD said:

    Coronavirus vaccine taken by tablet instead of injection is about to go into human trials - and scientist in charge says he believes there WILL be a vaccine by next year

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8320209/Coronavirus-vaccine-taken-tablet-instead-injection-human-trials.html

    Any update from the Oxford team?
    I believe mid June is when they will have an idea if this could be a goer.
    Not sure I can wait thirty days. :o
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Coronavirus vaccine taken by tablet instead of injection is about to go into human trials - and scientist in charge says he believes there WILL be a vaccine by next year

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8320209/Coronavirus-vaccine-taken-tablet-instead-injection-human-trials.html

    Any update from the Oxford team?
    I believe mid June is when they will have an idea if this could be a goer.
    Not sure I can wait thirty days. :o
    I think even then it will only be we can continue on with larger study.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Coronavirus vaccine taken by tablet instead of injection is about to go into human trials - and scientist in charge says he believes there WILL be a vaccine by next year

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8320209/Coronavirus-vaccine-taken-tablet-instead-injection-human-trials.html

    Any update from the Oxford team?
    I believe mid June is when they will have an idea if this could be a goer.
    Not sure I can wait thirty days. :o
    I think even then it will only be we can continue on with larger study.
    Surely the boffins can work faster than that. :D
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,343
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Coronavirus vaccine taken by tablet instead of injection is about to go into human trials - and scientist in charge says he believes there WILL be a vaccine by next year

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8320209/Coronavirus-vaccine-taken-tablet-instead-injection-human-trials.html

    Any update from the Oxford team?
    I believe mid June is when they will have an idea if this could be a goer.
    Not sure I can wait thirty days. :o
    I think even then it will only be we can continue on with larger study.
    Surely the boffins can work faster than that. :D
    When they've got a 2 year research grant they make damn sure it takes 2 years.
  • tysontyson Posts: 5,979

    RobD said:

    Coronavirus vaccine taken by tablet instead of injection is about to go into human trials - and scientist in charge says he believes there WILL be a vaccine by next year

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8320209/Coronavirus-vaccine-taken-tablet-instead-injection-human-trials.html

    Any update from the Oxford team?
    I believe mid June is when they will have an idea if this could be a goer.
    I think WHO and Boris have put the cat on the roof on that one......

    I once watched Boycott and Chris Tavare bat out the best part of a day at Old Trafford.....Covid is going to be the slow suffocation of the planet....

    There will be BC and AC....

    But...human beings routinely face catastrophic events...it is just that we are now living through one (like many of our ancestors at various points)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    tyson said:

    RobD said:

    Coronavirus vaccine taken by tablet instead of injection is about to go into human trials - and scientist in charge says he believes there WILL be a vaccine by next year

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8320209/Coronavirus-vaccine-taken-tablet-instead-injection-human-trials.html

    Any update from the Oxford team?
    I believe mid June is when they will have an idea if this could be a goer.
    I think WHO and Boris have put the cat on the roof on that one......

    I once watched Boycott and Chris Tavare bat out the best part of a day at Old Trafford.....Covid is going to be the slow suffocation of the planet....

    There will be BC and AC....

    But...human beings routinely face catastrophic events...it is just that we are now living through one (like many of our ancestors at various points)
    Well yes WHO response last night wasn't exactly optimistic & I wonder about the governments strategy in this context, it does feel very much like there is no point waiting this out any longer, because nothing is going to change.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,973
    Tonight in the PB Nighthawks cafe as things edge back ever so slowly to normality with real cafes now able to sell coffee
  • tysontyson Posts: 5,979

    tyson said:

    RobD said:

    Coronavirus vaccine taken by tablet instead of injection is about to go into human trials - and scientist in charge says he believes there WILL be a vaccine by next year

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8320209/Coronavirus-vaccine-taken-tablet-instead-injection-human-trials.html

    Any update from the Oxford team?
    I believe mid June is when they will have an idea if this could be a goer.
    I think WHO and Boris have put the cat on the roof on that one......

    I once watched Boycott and Chris Tavare bat out the best part of a day at Old Trafford.....Covid is going to be the slow suffocation of the planet....

    There will be BC and AC....

    But...human beings routinely face catastrophic events...it is just that we are now living through one (like many of our ancestors at various points)
    Well yes WHO response last night wasn't exactly optimistic & I wonder about the governments strategy in this context, it does feel very much like there is no point waiting this out any longer, because nothing is going to change.
    The WHO, the Tuscany study, the ONS infection data.....this is going to be a slow burner with no good options (for anyone) without a vaccine....

    Life has profoundly changed for us all these last months...

    How we live with Covid 19...that is the question....
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,683
    THIS THREAD HAS LOST ITS MAJORITY
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,873
    tyson said:

    RobD said:

    Coronavirus vaccine taken by tablet instead of injection is about to go into human trials - and scientist in charge says he believes there WILL be a vaccine by next year

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8320209/Coronavirus-vaccine-taken-tablet-instead-injection-human-trials.html

    Any update from the Oxford team?
    I believe mid June is when they will have an idea if this could be a goer.
    I think WHO and Boris have put the cat on the roof on that one......

    I once watched Boycott and Chris Tavare bat out the best part of a day at Old Trafford.....Covid is going to be the slow suffocation of the planet....

    There will be BC and AC....

    But...human beings routinely face catastrophic events...it is just that we are now living through one (like many of our ancestors at various points)
    When did you see Boycott and Tavare bat at Old Trafford ???

    The only example I can think of was the 1981 Test against Australia.

    When Botham scored a century in under 100 balls:

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/17031/scorecard/63293/england-vs-australia-5th-test-australia-tour-of-england-1981
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,873
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Has Grant Shapps actually nationalised TFL and taken it over ?

    I think by the time we get through Covid 19....without a vaccine and years maybe from now....I don't know what won't be nationalised.....
    Nice to know there is a silver lining.
    It could have been worse...there could have been a nuclear war....don't forget we've had a deranged madman at the helm of the US these last years

    We have to take the positives when you can take them....
    Here's a thought for you:

    What would Trump do between losing and leaving office ?
This discussion has been closed.