For future pandemic planners: you need to model what a very dry, warm spell does to the stay at home messaging.
That also tends to coincide with lower rates of coughs and better immunity for those who are getting their vitamin D so maybe it all comes out in the wash vs cold damp spell.
To emulate Sweden's strategy you need i) A low base level of infection ii) A sensible population, or one that normally has a higher than average level of social distancing iii) A population that's prepared to be even more cautious than normal for a very long time indeed.
I'm not sure we're there on any of those counts in this country.
Given most of them live in middle of nowhere with a few cities it is a lot easier than UK for sure. Build a wall around London and we are OK.
I think the biggest problem in London on a bank holiday is people regard the parks as 'their garden' because loads don't have one. One for town planners perhaps. Then again Madrid never seemed to have this problem..
Madrid have jackboot quasi-paramilitary police officers.
To emulate Sweden's strategy you need i) A low base level of infection ii) A sensible population, or one that normally has a higher than average level of social distancing iii) A population that's prepared to be even more cautious than normal for a very long time indeed.
I'm not sure we're there on any of those counts in this country.
In what ways is the UK population "not sensible" compared to Sweden?
The data from the phone companys looking at phones moving about was that the Uk and Sweden had the same drop in people moving about as each other before the UK lock down, (and both nations had peck deaths on the same day 8 April)
I think people are the same the would over, just some governments treet there people with respect.
What is all the fuss about? The answers to C4Ciaran's question are: VE Day; the street parties pictured look socially distanced; HMG has been flying kites about easing restrictions this weekend and what is a day here or there?
It appears that the public will try to observe the 2m rule but they (or a very large fraction of them, at any rate) are clearly no longer willing to remain incarcerated. Hence the pictures we have also had of loads of people sitting around sunbathing and having picnics in parks. This behaviour may be legitimised by the Prime Minister on Sunday, given that the people now appear to be running ahead of the authorities once again, and the existing rules are revealed as being impossible to effectively enforce absent popular consent.
If this results in an increase in new cases and hospitalisations then there will most likely be panicked attempts (which probably won't be successful) to re-tighten the lockdown. If it doesn't then the demands to re-open amenities like golf courses, tennis courts and many outdoor drinking and dining venues will quickly escalate.
To emulate Sweden's strategy you need i) A low base level of infection ii) A sensible population, or one that normally has a higher than average level of social distancing iii) A population that's prepared to be even more cautious than normal for a very long time indeed.
I'm not sure we're there on any of those counts in this country.
Given most of them live in middle of nowhere with a few cities it is a lot easier than UK for sure. Build a wall around London and we are OK.
I think the biggest problem in London on a bank holiday is people regard the parks as 'their garden' because loads don't have one. One for town planners perhaps. Then again Madrid never seemed to have this problem..
Madrid have jackboot quasi-paramilitary police officers.
What is all the fuss about? The answers to C4Ciaran's question are: VE Day; the street parties pictured look socially distanced; HMG has been flying kites about easing restrictions this weekend and what is a day here or there?
I am hearing that the lifting of restrictions is now going to be extremely slow, with even Monday’s changes possibly delayed for a further week, and then nothing more until June. The first phase is likely to be only resumption of work for building sites, garden centres and DIY stores opening, a few outdoor small group sports like golf and bowls, allowable outdoor gatherings increased from two to four, non-COVID health services resume, and people are allowed to do long walks (so parks and beaches reopen their car parks), all subject to continuing social distancing as now.
What is all the fuss about? The answers to C4Ciaran's question are: VE Day; the street parties pictured look socially distanced; HMG has been flying kites about easing restrictions this weekend and what is a day here or there?
I am hearing that the lifting of restrictions is now going to be extremely slow, with even Monday’s changes possibly delayed for a further week, and then nothing more until June. The first phase is likely to be only resumption of work for building sites, garden centres and DIY stores opening, a few outdoor small group sports like golf and bowls, allowable outdoor gatherings increased from two to four, non-COVID health services resume, and people are allowed to do long walks (so parks and beaches reopen their car parks), all subject to continuing social distancing as now.
What is all the fuss about? The answers to C4Ciaran's question are: VE Day; the street parties pictured look socially distanced; HMG has been flying kites about easing restrictions this weekend and what is a day here or there?
Exactly right. I am beginning to tire of Covid fascists.
To emulate Sweden's strategy you need i) A low base level of infection ii) A sensible population, or one that normally has a higher than average level of social distancing iii) A population that's prepared to be even more cautious than normal for a very long time indeed.
I'm not sure we're there on any of those counts in this country.
Given most of them live in middle of nowhere with a few cities it is a lot easier than UK for sure. Build a wall around London and we are OK.
I think the biggest problem in London on a bank holiday is people regard the parks as 'their garden' because loads don't have one. One for town planners perhaps. Then again Madrid never seemed to have this problem..
Madrid have jackboot quasi-paramilitary police officers.
I’ve seen very little evidence that the essentials of social distancing are breaking down. The stupider gold plating is beginning to be peeled off, but that’s nothing to worry about.
What is all the fuss about? The answers to C4Ciaran's question are: VE Day; the street parties pictured look socially distanced; HMG has been flying kites about easing restrictions this weekend and what is a day here or there?
I am hearing that the lifting of restrictions is now going to be extremely slow, with even Monday’s changes possibly delayed for a further week, and then nothing more until June. The first phase is likely to be only resumption of work for building sites, garden centres and DIY stores opening, a few outdoor small group sports like golf and bowls, allowable outdoor gatherings increased from two to four, non-COVID health services resume, and people are allowed to do long walks (so parks and beaches reopen their car parks), all subject to continuing social distancing as now.
People are doing long walks and long bike rides already. My neighbours had friends over today for a garden party. The lockdown can’t hold in a sunny weekend. Next week is going to be cold and grey so no-one will want to hold a barbecue in any case.
I’ve seen very little evidence that the essentials of social distancing are breaking down. The stupider gold plating is beginning to be peeled off, but that’s nothing to worry about.
It's like an Overton window. The rebels dare speak to another, whilst the loyalists claim that the country is doomed.
Harris has little charisma, represents California which is a safe Democratic state anyway and Obama would be more effective in campaigning for Biden and mobilising African American vote than she would be.
Whitmer as governor of Michigan, a key swing state, would be a better choice as Biden's VP pick
I am hearing that the lifting of restrictions is now going to be extremely slow, with even Monday’s changes possibly delayed for a further week, and then nothing more until June. The first phase is likely to be only resumption of work for building sites, garden centres and DIY stores opening, a few outdoor small group sports like golf and bowls, allowable outdoor gatherings increased from two to four, non-COVID health services resume, and people are allowed to do long walks (so parks and beaches reopen their car parks), all subject to continuing social distancing as now.
If correct, the next three weeks are going to be difficult. There is, if the weekend is anything to go by, a large minority who are tired of the restrictions and want to enjoy themselves though I suspect the silent majority are staying dutifully at home.
It's clear public transport in London is in no shape for a major return and even re-opening construction sites is going to mean a lot more travelling.
I've suspected for a while June 1st is the big day for re-opening - new month, new start etc. Some in Government may be hoping the weather in the coming days is less conducive for being out and about.
I’ve seen very little evidence that the essentials of social distancing are breaking down. The stupider gold plating is beginning to be peeled off, but that’s nothing to worry about.
People are being generally sensible.
But it’s popular activity that is controlling government policy rather than vice versa.
I saw a bloke wandering the streets today in black overalls, gaffer tape, full face mask and work gloves.
Thankfully he was in a tiny minority and most people were wearing normal clothes and keeping their distance.
What is all the fuss about? The answers to C4Ciaran's question are: VE Day; the street parties pictured look socially distanced; HMG has been flying kites about easing restrictions this weekend and what is a day here or there?
I am hearing that the lifting of restrictions is now going to be extremely slow, with even Monday’s changes possibly delayed for a further week, and then nothing more until June. The first phase is likely to be only resumption of work for building sites, garden centres and DIY stores opening, a few outdoor small group sports like golf and bowls, allowable outdoor gatherings increased from two to four, non-COVID health services resume, and people are allowed to do long walks (so parks and beaches reopen their car parks), all subject to continuing social distancing as now.
People are doing long walks and long bike rides already. My neighbours had friends over today for a garden party. The lockdown can’t hold in a sunny weekend. Next week is going to be cold and grey so no-one will want to hold a barbecue in any case.
We've always been allowed to do long walks and bike rides
I am hearing that the lifting of restrictions is now going to be extremely slow, with even Monday’s changes possibly delayed for a further week, and then nothing more until June. The first phase is likely to be only resumption of work for building sites, garden centres and DIY stores opening, a few outdoor small group sports like golf and bowls, allowable outdoor gatherings increased from two to four, non-COVID health services resume, and people are allowed to do long walks (so parks and beaches reopen their car parks), all subject to continuing social distancing as now.
If correct, the next three weeks are going to be difficult. There is, if the weekend is anything to go by, a large minority who are tired of the restrictions and want to enjoy themselves though I suspect the silent majority are staying dutifully at home.
It's clear public transport in London is in no shape for a major return and even re-opening construction sites is going to mean a lot more travelling.
I've suspected for a while June 1st is the big day for re-opening - new month, new start etc. Some in Government may be hoping the weather in the coming days is less conducive for being out and about.
The weather is going to be cold and unpleasant next week. Will do more for “social distancing” than anything Bozza can project from his arse.
How concerned are you about the reports of serious long-term side effects from CV-19, in particular renal and heart failure?
"Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives."
They certainly work well for the people I’ve seen wearing them while driving in their own cars. Or walking in the countryside. I’m sure that the majority of Britons aren’t virulently stupid but that belief is being tested to destruction.
I presume anybody thinks they have had it, and that is a lot in London, even harder to say don't go out and hang out in the sun, because in their mind they can't catch it again and thus cant pass it on either.
so, turns out there was mass disobedience of the lockdown this weekend. at least that wasn't entirely predictable.
Perhaps we should have cancelled all the VE day celebrations including the Bank Holiday and held them on VJ Day in September.
15 August is VJ in Europe and Africa. That is when they celebrated the surrender. The USA apparently celebrates in Sep as that is when the formal treaty was signed. If we followed that we should celebrate the end of WW1 as being when Versailles was signed, but that treaty is nothing to celebrate.
What is all the fuss about? The answers to C4Ciaran's question are: VE Day; the street parties pictured look socially distanced; HMG has been flying kites about easing restrictions this weekend and what is a day here or there?
Exactly right. I am beginning to tire of Covid fascists.
Cromwells Puritanical Republic, was eventually peacefully ended and replaced by Monarchy, not so much becose people change there ming about the Divine right of Kings. but they just whated to be able to party, which Charles 2 was very happy with.
Perhaps this horrid and probably counterproductive Lock-down will end is because people what dance, party and have fun.
I presume anybody thinks they have had it, and that is a lot in London, even harder to say don't go out and hang out in the sun, because in their mind they can't catch it again and thus cant pass it on either.
Lots of people in London don’t have their own gardens. So what are they expected to do when it’s 25c? More to the point, the rate has plummeted in London despite busybodies trying to shame Londoners for having a few beers in the park. This has happened for several weekends now.
Harris has little charisma, represents California which is a safe Democratic state anyway and Obama would be more effective in campaigning for Biden and mobilising African American vote than she would be.
Whitmer as governor of Michigan, a key swing state, would be a better choice as Biden's VP pick
I agree that Whitmer would be the better VP pick.
The question is whether Biden made a promise in South Carolina to pick a woman of color. If he did, then Harris is probably rightly favourite.
I presume anybody thinks they have had it, and that is a lot in London, even harder to say don't go out and hang out in the sun, because in their mind they can't catch it again and thus cant pass it on either.
Lots of people in London don’t have their own gardens. So what are they expected to do when it’s 25c? More to the point, the rate has plummeted in London despite busybodies trying to shame Londoners for having a few beers in the park. This has happened for several weekends now.
Compelled altruism, particularly to support a generation which seems indifferent to the concerns of the under 60s generally and the under 30s particularly, has been tested to destruction.
I’ve seen very little evidence that the essentials of social distancing are breaking down. The stupider gold plating is beginning to be peeled off, but that’s nothing to worry about.
The infinite ability of humanity to adapt to any situation is in evidence. Initially the rule was followed but with time people have developed responses to the rule which doesn't break the rule but bends it.
We've adapted the protocols of lockdown to more accurately fit how we want to live - we make the changes we need to make it more like the life we want.
To emulate Sweden's strategy you need i) A low base level of infection ii) A sensible population, or one that normally has a higher than average level of social distancing iii) A population that's prepared to be even more cautious than normal for a very long time indeed.
I'm not sure we're there on any of those counts in this country.
Given most of them live in middle of nowhere with a few cities it is a lot easier than UK for sure. Build a wall around London and we are OK.
I think the biggest problem in London on a bank holiday is people regard the parks as 'their garden' because loads don't have one. One for town planners perhaps. Then again Madrid never seemed to have this problem..
Madrid have jackboot quasi-paramilitary police officers.
I’ve seen very little evidence that the essentials of social distancing are breaking down. The stupider gold plating is beginning to be peeled off, but that’s nothing to worry about.
The infinite ability of humanity to adapt to any situation is in evidence. Initially the rule was followed but with time people have developed responses to the rule which doesn't break the rule but bends it.
We've adapted the protocols of lockdown to more accurately fit how we want to live - we make the changes we need to make it more like the life we want.
so, turns out there was mass disobedience of the lockdown this weekend. at least that wasn't entirely predictable.
Perhaps we should have cancelled all the VE day celebrations including the Bank Holiday and held them on VJ Day in September.
15 August is VJ in Europe and Africa. That is when they celebrated the surrender. The USA apparently celebrates in Sep as that is when the formal treaty was signed. If we followed that we should celebrate the end of WW1 as being when Versailles was signed, but that treaty is nothing to celebrate.
Yes but is the point valid? Had Boris said in mid April VE Day was being cancelled and everything would happen on VJ Day, would anyone have objected? We could have moved the Bank Holiday to the 14th August which is during summer holidays anyway.
Given it's not going to be easy to travel abroad this year the VJ Day celebrations would be a big part of Staycation 2020.
Some of the 1959 results are eye opening. Salford East. Only about 3K between the Lab winner and the Tory. last time it was run in 1990s - lab won by 11K
so, turns out there was mass disobedience of the lockdown this weekend. at least that wasn't entirely predictable.
Perhaps we should have cancelled all the VE day celebrations including the Bank Holiday and held them on VJ Day in September.
15 August is VJ in Europe and Africa. That is when they celebrated the surrender. The USA apparently celebrates in Sep as that is when the formal treaty was signed. If we followed that we should celebrate the end of WW1 as being when Versailles was signed, but that treaty is nothing to celebrate.
Yes but is the point valid? Had Boris said in mid April VE Day was being cancelled and everything would happen on VJ Day, would anyone have objected? We could have moved the Bank Holiday to the 14th August which is during summer holidays anyway.
Given it's not going to be easy to travel abroad this year the VJ Day celebrations would be a big part of Staycation 2020.
The problem you face is that people don’t really know about VJ (it’s forgotten, yes I know). VE ties into a national mythology which is at best objectively dubious but is real for many. It also, if one is being cynical, ties into Brexit and the standing alone but ultimately being victorious and special, which seems to have its own mystique got the government’s supporters.
It wasn’t long ago that some PBers were berating other posters for taking a drive in the countryside on their own because they “might break down”.
I'll repeat that right now. I couldn't give a feck if dickheads want to increase their risk of infection.
What I do object to is that if infected they then increase the risk of everyone they encounter. And that includes the doctors and nurses they would expect to treat them if they need to be hospitalised.
What is all the fuss about? The answers to C4Ciaran's question are: VE Day; the street parties pictured look socially distanced; HMG has been flying kites about easing restrictions this weekend and what is a day here or there?
It appears that the public will try to observe the 2m rule but they (or a very large fraction of them, at any rate) are clearly no longer willing to remain incarcerated. Hence the pictures we have also had of loads of people sitting around sunbathing and having picnics in parks. This behaviour may be legitimised by the Prime Minister on Sunday, given that the people now appear to be running ahead of the authorities once again, and the existing rules are revealed as being impossible to effectively enforce absent popular consent.
If this results in an increase in new cases and hospitalisations then there will most likely be panicked attempts (which probably won't be successful) to re-tighten the lockdown. If it doesn't then the demands to re-open amenities like golf courses, tennis courts and many outdoor drinking and dining venues will quickly escalate.
This from the Guardian website:
"South Korea, which is trying to relax physical distancing regulations, on Saturday shut down more than 2,100 clubs and bars in the capital after a new cluster of cases emerged, apparently linked to a single individual who had gone out while infected.
The cases are a reminder of how long and challenging the battle against coronavirus is likely to be even in countries that had initial success in containing it"
How would you rate our chances of success in containing the virus given what we have already seen? .
What is all the fuss about? The answers to C4Ciaran's question are: VE Day; the street parties pictured look socially distanced; HMG has been flying kites about easing restrictions this weekend and what is a day here or there?
It appears that the public will try to observe the 2m rule but they (or a very large fraction of them, at any rate) are clearly no longer willing to remain incarcerated. Hence the pictures we have also had of loads of people sitting around sunbathing and having picnics in parks. This behaviour may be legitimised by the Prime Minister on Sunday, given that the people now appear to be running ahead of the authorities once again, and the existing rules are revealed as being impossible to effectively enforce absent popular consent.
If this results in an increase in new cases and hospitalisations then there will most likely be panicked attempts (which probably won't be successful) to re-tighten the lockdown. If it doesn't then the demands to re-open amenities like golf courses, tennis courts and many outdoor drinking and dining venues will quickly escalate.
This from the Guardian website:
"South Korea, which is trying to relax physical distancing regulations, on Saturday shut down more than 2,100 clubs and bars in the capital after a new cluster of cases emerged, apparently linked to a single individual who had gone out while infected.
The cases are a reminder of how long and challenging the battle against coronavirus is likely to be even in countries that had initial success in containing it"
How would you rate our chances of success in containing the virus given what we have already seen? .
Harris has little charisma, represents California which is a safe Democratic state anyway and Obama would be more effective in campaigning for Biden and mobilising African American vote than she would be.
Whitmer as governor of Michigan, a key swing state, would be a better choice as Biden's VP pick
I agree that Whitmer would be the better VP pick.
The question is whether Biden made a promise in South Carolina to pick a woman of color. If he did, then Harris is probably rightly favourite.
Biden has a really tough job here. More than usual Americans will have to close their eyes and imagine the VP choice sitting at the desk in the Oval Office.
What is all the fuss about? The answers to C4Ciaran's question are: VE Day; the street parties pictured look socially distanced; HMG has been flying kites about easing restrictions this weekend and what is a day here or there?
I am hearing that the lifting of restrictions is now going to be extremely slow, with even Monday’s changes possibly delayed for a further week, and then nothing more until June. The first phase is likely to be only resumption of work for building sites, garden centres and DIY stores opening, a few outdoor small group sports like golf and bowls, allowable outdoor gatherings increased from two to four, non-COVID health services resume, and people are allowed to do long walks (so parks and beaches reopen their car parks), all subject to continuing social distancing as now.
Building sites and DIY stores are (or can be) open already. It is interesting that fast food chains are reopening because, of course, the government never insisted they should close in the first place (for takeaway and delivery).
What is all the fuss about? The answers to C4Ciaran's question are: VE Day; the street parties pictured look socially distanced; HMG has been flying kites about easing restrictions this weekend and what is a day here or there?
It appears that the public will try to observe the 2m rule but they (or a very large fraction of them, at any rate) are clearly no longer willing to remain incarcerated. Hence the pictures we have also had of loads of people sitting around sunbathing and having picnics in parks. This behaviour may be legitimised by the Prime Minister on Sunday, given that the people now appear to be running ahead of the authorities once again, and the existing rules are revealed as being impossible to effectively enforce absent popular consent.
If this results in an increase in new cases and hospitalisations then there will most likely be panicked attempts (which probably won't be successful) to re-tighten the lockdown. If it doesn't then the demands to re-open amenities like golf courses, tennis courts and many outdoor drinking and dining venues will quickly escalate.
Before the lockdown it is said that SAGE's psychologists warned that the public could only be counted on to comply for a few weeks. Perhaps they were right and we are reaching that limit, though again this week's kite-flying and leaks will only have encouraged people to venture out.
It wasn’t long ago that some PBers were berating other posters for taking a drive in the countryside on their own because they “might break down”.
I'll repeat that right now. I couldn't give a feck if dickheads want to increase their risk of infection.
What I do object to is that if infected they then increase the risk of everyone they encounter. And that includes the doctors and nurses they would expect to treat them if they need to be hospitalised.
What are the chances of someone’s car breaking down on a local drive?
Get cricket journos to write news articles about Covid-19.
That's one group of journos who understand and know how to write about stats.
Quite remarkably,Geoffrey, he becomes one of only three left handed patients, with an Auntie names Nora, to die at this hospital between lunch and tea on a Tuesday. Care to name the other two Tuffers?
An interesting reflection of national myths, perhaps, rather than considered historical judgement. Whether it is even a meaningful question is also open to doubt. The war was won by the three main allied powers, and it is not certain it could have been won without any one of them.
The PB Tories don’t like the tube scene, as a rule.
It was a bit of a daft scene, tbh. As with The Imitation Game, you had to wonder if the writers properly understood the subject.
It felt like any second the extras would break into a musical number, complete with stage cockney accents.
My issue with it was that it completely misunderstood Churchill's character. As observed by the large numbers of people who knew him, and write their recollections down. Not just his friends, either.
There’s a huge difference between people going clubbing in a 5,000 square foot club, snogging each other and dancing within 4 inches of the girl next to them than going out for a country drive and a walk or having a barbecue with a couple of mates.
I should say I haven’t broken the rules myself but I can see why people are bending them.
To emulate Sweden's strategy you need i) A low base level of infection ii) A sensible population, or one that normally has a higher than average level of social distancing iii) A population that's prepared to be even more cautious than normal for a very long time indeed.
I'm not sure we're there on any of those counts in this country.
Given most of them live in middle of nowhere with a few cities it is a lot easier than UK for sure. Build a wall around London and we are OK.
You would have to do a lot more wall building than that:
How concerned are you about the reports of serious long-term side effects from CV-19, in particular renal and heart failure?
"Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives."
This is so important, yet the freedom advocates conveniently gloss over it, If you have an underlying condition, as millions do, it is the potential for long term health issues that is the big fear rather than dying, given the much greater likelihood of the former.
Now that more have decided that they own the streets, the more that others will be unlikely to step outside, given the all too likely consequences.
What is all the fuss about? The answers to C4Ciaran's question are: VE Day; the street parties pictured look socially distanced; HMG has been flying kites about easing restrictions this weekend and what is a day here or there?
I am hearing that the lifting of restrictions is now going to be extremely slow, with even Monday’s changes possibly delayed for a further week, and then nothing more until June. The first phase is likely to be only resumption of work for building sites, garden centres and DIY stores opening, a few outdoor small group sports like golf and bowls, allowable outdoor gatherings increased from two to four, non-COVID health services resume, and people are allowed to do long walks (so parks and beaches reopen their car parks), all subject to continuing social distancing as now.
Must say I've never got the golf one. I live opposite a gold club. Of course I do. Acres and acres of green open space shuttered. Gentle exercise for the age group that needs it. Summat to pass the time.
80% turnout in Billericay in 1959. Swing to the Tories 3.7% I sense a Tory victory
Only 2 Tory leaders have won a bigger majority than Boris did last year since WW2, Thatcher in 1983 and 1987 and Macmillan in 1959.
There do not seem to be Lib candidates in every seat..
I think 1974 was the first year that the Liberal Party ran in nearly all seats. It increased their vote share quite a bit, but notreflected in numbers of seats.
What is all the fuss about? The answers to C4Ciaran's question are: VE Day; the street parties pictured look socially distanced; HMG has been flying kites about easing restrictions this weekend and what is a day here or there?
I am hearing that the lifting of restrictions is now going to be extremely slow, with even Monday’s changes possibly delayed for a further week, and then nothing more until June. The first phase is likely to be only resumption of work for building sites, garden centres and DIY stores opening, a few outdoor small group sports like golf and bowls, allowable outdoor gatherings increased from two to four, non-COVID health services resume, and people are allowed to do long walks (so parks and beaches reopen their car parks), all subject to continuing social distancing as now.
Must say I've never got the golf one. I live opposite a gold club. Of course I do. Acres and acres of green open space shuttered. Gentle exercise for the age group that needs it. Summat to pass the time.
Because, for example, they don't trust people not to get together after a game of golf for a few outdoor drinks, etc.
To emulate Sweden's strategy you need i) A low base level of infection ii) A sensible population, or one that normally has a higher than average level of social distancing iii) A population that's prepared to be even more cautious than normal for a very long time indeed.
I'm not sure we're there on any of those counts in this country.
Given most of them live in middle of nowhere with a few cities it is a lot easier than UK for sure. Build a wall around London and we are OK.
You would have to do a lot more wall building than that:
How concerned are you about the reports of serious long-term side effects from CV-19, in particular renal and heart failure?
"Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives."
This is so important, yet the freedom advocates conveniently gloss over it, If you have an underlying condition, as millions do, it is the potential for long term health issues that is the big fear rather than dying, given the much greater likelihood of the former.
Now that more have decided that they own the streets, the more that others will be unlikely to step outside, given the all too likely consequences.
But when are those consequences likely? That's the trouble. We urgently need more research on how exactly the virus spreads so we can ease restrictions in safe places and more accurately take precautions in others. If it is true that infection spreads indoors rather than outside, then we can allow picnics but keep office workers WFH, for instance. We need to move past opening everything or nothing based on R0 and flattened peaks.
The problem you face is that people don’t really know about VJ (it’s forgotten, yes I know). VE ties into a national mythology which is at best objectively dubious but is real for many. It also, if one is being cynical, ties into Brexit and the standing alone but ultimately being victorious and special, which seems to have its own mystique got the government’s supporters.
Yes - it's unfortunate but true. Back in 1945, a significant minority refused to celebrate VE day because they had relatives still fighting or incarcerated in the Far East.
There are hints in the print journalism of the time which might have sounded odd then - there's more than one reference to "the view in Westminster the war with Japan will be over this year". If you didn't know about the atomic bomb, that must have seemed incredibly optimistic given the need to perhaps invade and subdue the Home Islands.
The other interesting part of VE day is party politics was already resuming based on the assumption there would be a GE later in the year. Both Churchill and Attlee wanted the coalition to continue until Japan had been defeated but that wasn't the view in the Conservative and Labour parties. Attlee was forced to back down in the face of opposition from Morrison and Bevin and took the Labour members out of the government on May 23rd.
Two months later they would be back as the Labour Government after a 10.5% swing against the Conservatives (comparable to 1997) delivered a Labour landslide and a Conservative defeat which wouldn't be matched for over 50 years.
My last post seems to have had an unfinished prologue to it. Apologies, it was just agreeing with the idea that not having a hotspot in the UK means that the late lockdown allowed for national transmission. Earlier may have kept if away from some areas.
It wasn’t long ago that some PBers were berating other posters for taking a drive in the countryside on their own because they “might break down”.
I'll repeat that right now. I couldn't give a feck if dickheads want to increase their risk of infection.
What I do object to is that if infected they then increase the risk of everyone they encounter. And that includes the doctors and nurses they would expect to treat them if they need to be hospitalised.
What are the chances of someone’s car breaking down on a local drive?
Higher than if they don't make the unnecessary journey.
And it isn't about 1 person's car. It is about the statistical probably of breakdowns across a population.
What is all the fuss about? The answers to C4Ciaran's question are: VE Day; the street parties pictured look socially distanced; HMG has been flying kites about easing restrictions this weekend and what is a day here or there?
I am hearing that the lifting of restrictions is now going to be extremely slow, with even Monday’s changes possibly delayed for a further week, and then nothing more until June. The first phase is likely to be only resumption of work for building sites, garden centres and DIY stores opening, a few outdoor small group sports like golf and bowls, allowable outdoor gatherings increased from two to four, non-COVID health services resume, and people are allowed to do long walks (so parks and beaches reopen their car parks), all subject to continuing social distancing as now.
Must say I've never got the golf one. I live opposite a gold club. Of course I do. Acres and acres of green open space shuttered. Gentle exercise for the age group that needs it. Summat to pass the time.
Because, for example, they don't trust people not to get together after a game of golf for a few outdoor drinks, etc.
Is it too obvious to point out that they could do that anyway? They are just forced to skip the golf.
How concerned are you about the reports of serious long-term side effects from CV-19, in particular renal and heart failure?
"Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives."
Sorry for not replying sooner, i did not see the question.
I, am concerned about all the deaths and all of those who are affected by this virus in both long and short term. As, I'm sure are you and all the posters on here.
That should not get in the way of looking at different approaches, and which is best. I think that the appoch that Sweden is taking and the UK neatly took, will have less overall harm to health, both death and other long term effects.
I may be wrong, and like to here different opinions and assessments, but please be reassured that my assessment that a different approach to your is better is not because I am not 'concerned'
***** Betting Post ***** Referring back to Robert Smithson's excellent header a couple of days ago when he considered the Democrats' chances of winning back control of the Senate, he concluded by stating: "All in all, I think the Democrats have a comfortably better than 50% chance of getting to 50 seats (including Independents). It’s also possible they have a blow out night, picking up both Georgia seats and Iowa. You can sell 51 or more Republican seats at slightly worse than evens on Smarkets, and get only marginally worse returns with Betfred and Ladbrokes. Take them."
As is invariably the case on this supposedly first and foremost betting site, his highly informative and sound recommendations went largely unheeded ... little wonder that I and most other punters like me can no longer be bothered to post our betting ideas on PB.com, only to be met by a wall of indifference. However, just to round-off matters and express my own appreciation, I followed his advice and having failed to obtain the odds with Smarkets close to those he had suggested, instead I set up a combination bet firstly with BetFred on the GOP winning exactly 50 (i.e. half) the Senate seats at odds of 5/1, staking 31.81% of my total and investing the remaining 68.19% of my stake money with Ladbrokes at odds of 9/5, boosted from 7/4, on the Republicans winning fewer than 50 such seats. In combination, therefore, I have covered them winning fewer than 51 seats which (in Robert's inverted wording) he rates as being a "comfortably better than 50% chance" at combined odds of 10/11 or 1.909 decimal.
The problem you face is that people don’t really know about VJ (it’s forgotten, yes I know). VE ties into a national mythology which is at best objectively dubious but is real for many. It also, if one is being cynical, ties into Brexit and the standing alone but ultimately being victorious and special, which seems to have its own mystique got the government’s supporters.
Yes - it's unfortunate but true. Back in 1945, a significant minority refused to celebrate VE day because they had relatives still fighting or incarcerated in the Far East.
There are hints in the print journalism of the time which might have sounded odd then - there's more than one reference to "the view in Westminster the war with Japan will be over this year". If you didn't know about the atomic bomb, that must have seemed incredibly optimistic given the need to perhaps invade and subdue the Home Islands.
The other interesting part of VE day is party politics was already resuming based on the assumption there would be a GE later in the year. Both Churchill and Attlee wanted the coalition to continue until Japan had been defeated but that wasn't the view in the Conservative and Labour parties. Attlee was forced to back down in the face of opposition from Morrison and Bevin and took the Labour members out of the government on May 23rd.
Two months later they would be back as the Labour Government after a 10.5% swing against the Conservatives (comparable to 1997) delivered a Labour landslide and a Conservative defeat which wouldn't be matched for over 50 years.
When one looks at the foreign policy led by Bevin, nothing changed (Plan Sandown FFS). It was a continuation of the previous 30 years of foreign policy. Until it finally came unstuck with Eden,
Asia beyond Singapore was always a sideshow for the British civil service, and if one looks at reporting from the era, the population as a whole, beyond what Robinson and Gallagher called the “informal empire”. That fed through to the whole VJ feeling (where the British were, by any stretch, the poor relation anyway).
As an aside “the war over this year” reporting is interesting given the timeline of Downfall/Olympic/Coronet
so, turns out there was mass disobedience of the lockdown this weekend. at least that wasn't entirely predictable.
Perhaps we should have cancelled all the VE day celebrations including the Bank Holiday and held them on VJ Day in September.
15 August is VJ in Europe and Africa. That is when they celebrated the surrender. The USA apparently celebrates in Sep as that is when the formal treaty was signed. If we followed that we should celebrate the end of WW1 as being when Versailles was signed, but that treaty is nothing to celebrate.
Yes but is the point valid? Had Boris said in mid April VE Day was being cancelled and everything would happen on VJ Day, would anyone have objected? We could have moved the Bank Holiday to the 14th August which is during summer holidays anyway.
Given it's not going to be easy to travel abroad this year the VJ Day celebrations would be a big part of Staycation 2020.
The problem you face is that people don’t really know about VJ (it’s forgotten, yes I know). VE ties into a national mythology which is at best objectively dubious but is real for many. It also, if one is being cynical, ties into Brexit and the standing alone but ultimately being victorious and special, which seems to have its own mystique got the government’s supporters.
Celebrating VJ = celebrating Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which I imagine many people feel dubious about.
***** Betting Post ***** Referring back to Robert Smithson's excellent header a couple of days ago when he considered the Democrats' chances of winning back control of the Senate, he concluded by stating: "All in all, I think the Democrats have a comfortably better than 50% chance of getting to 50 seats (including Independents). It’s also possible they have a blow out night, picking up both Georgia seats and Iowa. You can sell 51 or more Republican seats at slightly worse than evens on Smarkets, and get only marginally worse returns with Betfred and Ladbrokes. Take them."
As is invariably the case on this supposedly first and foremost betting site, his highly informative and sound recommendations went largely unheeded ... little wonder that I and most other punters like me can no longer be bothered to post our betting ideas on PB.com, only to be met by a wall of indifference. However, just to round-off matters and express my own appreciation, I followed his advice and having failed to obtain the odds with Smarkets close to those he had suggested, instead I set up a combination bet firstly with BetFred on the GOP winning exactly 50 (i.e. half) the Senate seats at odds of 5/1, staking 31.81% of my total and investing the remaining 68.19% of my stake money with Ladbrokes at odds of 9/5, boosted from 7/4, on the Republicans winning fewer than 50 such seats. In combination, therefore, I have covered them winning fewer than 51 seats which (in Robert's inverted wording) he rates as being a "comfortably better than 50% chance" at combined odds of 10/11 or 1.909 decimal.
That's good value in my book, but DYOR.
Tbh I had a quick look at Smarkets in response to @rcs1000 (and iirc posted some of their odds in a different market) but there did not seem to be more than £5 or £10 in most places. Good luck with your bet but I'm not anxious to wait four months for a 10/11 shot.
It is remarkable that you can "lock in" a profit by backing both Trump and Biden to win in November, which means of course the market is unsure that one or both will even run (in which case it is not locked in). I suspect such fears are oversold but even so, I've not indulged.
It wasn’t long ago that some PBers were berating other posters for taking a drive in the countryside on their own because they “might break down”.
I'll repeat that right now. I couldn't give a feck if dickheads want to increase their risk of infection.
What I do object to is that if infected they then increase the risk of everyone they encounter. And that includes the doctors and nurses they would expect to treat them if they need to be hospitalised.
What are the chances of someone’s car breaking down on a local drive?
Higher than if they don't make the unnecessary journey.
And it isn't about 1 person's car. It is about the statistical probably of breakdowns across a population.
But I guess you already know that really.
I’m asking a question. What are the risks associated with people going for local drives?
I think 1974 was the first year that the Liberal Party ran in nearly all seats. It increased their vote share quite a bit, but not reflected in numbers of seats.
I think the Party ran a near full slate in the October election but in February scored 19% running in 517 seats (out of 623).
East Ham as a constituency didn't exist (it was called Newham North East). Reg Prentice was the first MP under the new boundaries - he had a majority of 13,300 and the Liberals got 19%.
Vanessa Redgrave contested the seat for the Workers Revolutionary Party and got 760 votes.
To emulate Sweden's strategy you need i) A low base level of infection ii) A sensible population, or one that normally has a higher than average level of social distancing iii) A population that's prepared to be even more cautious than normal for a very long time indeed.
I'm not sure we're there on any of those counts in this country.
Given most of them live in middle of nowhere with a few cities it is a lot easier than UK for sure. Build a wall around London and we are OK.
You would have to do a lot more wall building than that:
How concerned are you about the reports of serious long-term side effects from CV-19, in particular renal and heart failure?
"Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives."
This is so important, yet the freedom advocates conveniently gloss over it, If you have an underlying condition, as millions do, it is the potential for long term health issues that is the big fear rather than dying, given the much greater likelihood of the former.
Now that more have decided that they own the streets, the more that others will be unlikely to step outside, given the all too likely consequences.
Thank you for referring to me as a Freedom advocate, not as somebody who is not concerned. That is much appreciated.
I realy do think that
1) There is a very high chance that eventually most people will get this.
2) Given point 1) it would be better if the health people got it than the old/ill
3) Without the lock down, young/healthy people will take more risks, get it first,, letting it die out without as many old/ill people having to get it.
4) The appoch will not have perfect results but will be better than lock down.
On the header, it’s a strong argument. That said, the feeling I’m getting from my US colleagues (MA, FL, IL, CO, TX) is anyone but Trump. On that basis a sentient human will cover the bases and the argument strengthens.
It wasn’t long ago that some PBers were berating other posters for taking a drive in the countryside on their own because they “might break down”.
I'll repeat that right now. I couldn't give a feck if dickheads want to increase their risk of infection.
What I do object to is that if infected they then increase the risk of everyone they encounter. And that includes the doctors and nurses they would expect to treat them if they need to be hospitalised.
What are the chances of someone’s car breaking down on a local drive?
Higher than if they don't make the unnecessary journey.
And it isn't about 1 person's car. It is about the statistical probably of breakdowns across a population.
But I guess you already know that really.
Very remote if they drive a nazda cx5. Diesel. Brilliant car very reliable .
An interesting reflection of national myths, perhaps, rather than considered historical judgement. Whether it is even a meaningful question is also open to doubt. The war was won by the three main allied powers, and it is not certain it could have been won without any one of them.
Isn't the saying that we supplied time, the Americans supplied money, and the Russians supplied men?
Without any one of those three, the war would have been lost.
It wasn’t long ago that some PBers were berating other posters for taking a drive in the countryside on their own because they “might break down”.
I'll repeat that right now. I couldn't give a feck if dickheads want to increase their risk of infection.
What I do object to is that if infected they then increase the risk of everyone they encounter. And that includes the doctors and nurses they would expect to treat them if they need to be hospitalised.
What are the chances of someone’s car breaking down on a local drive?
Higher than if they don't make the unnecessary journey.
And it isn't about 1 person's car. It is about the statistical probably of breakdowns across a population.
But I guess you already know that really.
Very remote if they drive a nazda cx5. Diesel. Brilliant car very reliable .
Pearls and mink on the ladies for the 1959 declaration of the Moss Side result! This was the first election I can recall seeing on the box - Richard Dimbleby, Bob McKenzie, David Butler the familiar presenters. Interesting that no comment was made on the Wolverhampton result (Enoch Powell)
When one looks at the foreign policy led by Bevin, nothing changed (Plan Sandown FFS). It was a continuation of the previous 30 years of foreign policy. Until it finally came unstuck with Eden,
Asia beyond Singapore was always a sideshow for the British civil service, and if one looks at reporting from the era, the population as a whole, beyond what Robinson and Gallagher called the “informal empire”. That fed through to the whole VJ feeling (where the British were, by any stretch, the poor relation anyway).
As an aside “the war over this year” reporting is interesting given the timeline of Downfall/Olympic/Coronet
It was economics that drove post-war foreign policy. We were bankrupt and the Empire was unaffordable - Churchill, a Liberal Unionist at heart, hated the departure from India but as you say Suez convinced the Conservatives the Imperial dream was over and the future was Europe - MacMillan sent Heath to get us into Europe and began that chapter of our history which ended in 2016.
Obviously, no one knew about the atomic bomb and they had to plan for the possibility a) it might not work and b) even if it did, the Japanese would fight on.
Historians still argue as to whether it was the atomic bomb or the Soviet conquest of Manchuria which forced the surrender or perhaps both.
Comments
https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1259079790742720512?s=20
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11583659/boris-pleads-brits-stay-home-hottest-day/
That's one group of journos who understand and know how to write about stats.
https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1259114974179397632
I think people are the same the would over, just some governments treet there people with respect.
If this results in an increase in new cases and hospitalisations then there will most likely be panicked attempts (which probably won't be successful) to re-tighten the lockdown. If it doesn't then the demands to re-open amenities like golf courses, tennis courts and many outdoor drinking and dining venues will quickly escalate.
Whitmer as governor of Michigan, a key swing state, would be a better choice as Biden's VP pick
It's clear public transport in London is in no shape for a major return and even re-opening construction sites is going to mean a lot more travelling.
I've suspected for a while June 1st is the big day for re-opening - new month, new start etc. Some in Government may be hoping the weather in the coming days is less conducive for being out and about.
But it’s popular activity that is controlling government policy rather than vice versa.
I saw a bloke wandering the streets today in black overalls, gaffer tape, full face mask and work gloves.
Thankfully he was in a tiny minority and most people were wearing normal clothes and keeping their distance.
I reported a couple of incidences yesterday
Today had a long walk with dog, very quiet out in terms of traffic.
More people walking or cycling - generally couples or mum and dad and kids.
Everyone very polite and making sure plenty of space as we passed
How concerned are you about the reports of serious long-term side effects from CV-19, in particular renal and heart failure?
"Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives."
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19
80% turnout in Billericay in 1959. Swing to the Tories 3.7% I sense a Tory victory
Perhaps this horrid and probably counterproductive Lock-down will end is because people what dance, party and have fun.
Let Freedom Ring
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1259153410756153350?s=21
40% of Swedish Households are single occupancy.
UK rate is 28%
The question is whether Biden made a promise in South Carolina to pick a woman of color. If he did, then Harris is probably rightly favourite.
We've adapted the protocols of lockdown to more accurately fit how we want to live - we make the changes we need to make it more like the life we want.
Given it's not going to be easy to travel abroad this year the VJ Day celebrations would be a big part of Staycation 2020.
What I do object to is that if infected they then increase the risk of everyone they encounter. And that includes the doctors and nurses they would expect to treat them if they need to be hospitalised.
"South Korea, which is trying to relax physical distancing regulations, on Saturday shut down more than 2,100 clubs and bars in the capital after a new cluster of cases emerged, apparently linked to a single individual who had gone out while infected.
The cases are a reminder of how long and challenging the battle against coronavirus is likely to be even in countries that had initial success in containing it"
How would you rate our chances of success in containing the virus given what we have already seen? .
And I suspect many in the crowds were roaring drunk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4-8jrFXvVc
Let Freedom Ring
Care to name the other two Tuffers?
My issue with it was that it completely misunderstood Churchill's character. As observed by the large numbers of people who knew him, and write their recollections down. Not just his friends, either.
I should say I haven’t broken the rules myself but I can see why people are bending them.
Now that more have decided that they own the streets, the more that others will be unlikely to step outside, given the all too likely consequences.
There are hints in the print journalism of the time which might have sounded odd then - there's more than one reference to "the view in Westminster the war with Japan will be over this year". If you didn't know about the atomic bomb, that must have seemed incredibly optimistic given the need to perhaps invade and subdue the Home Islands.
The other interesting part of VE day is party politics was already resuming based on the assumption there would be a GE later in the year. Both Churchill and Attlee wanted the coalition to continue until Japan had been defeated but that wasn't the view in the Conservative and Labour parties. Attlee was forced to back down in the face of opposition from Morrison and Bevin and took the Labour members out of the government on May 23rd.
Two months later they would be back as the Labour Government after a 10.5% swing against the Conservatives (comparable to 1997) delivered a Labour landslide and a Conservative defeat which wouldn't be matched for over 50 years.
And it isn't about 1 person's car. It is about the statistical probably of breakdowns across a population.
But I guess you already know that really.
They are just forced to skip the golf.
Australian captain Tim Paine reveals he soiled himself moments before the Aussies secured the Ashes in England.
https://thewest.com.au/sport/cricket/australian-captain-tim-paine-reveals-he-soiled-himself-moments-before-the-aussies-secured-the-ashes-in-england-ng-b881542970z
I, am concerned about all the deaths and all of those who are affected by this virus in both long and short term. As, I'm sure are you and all the posters on here.
That should not get in the way of looking at different approaches, and which is best. I think that the appoch that Sweden is taking and the UK neatly took, will have less overall harm to health, both death and other long term effects.
I may be wrong, and like to here different opinions and assessments, but please be reassured that my assessment that a different approach to your is better is not because I am not 'concerned'
***** Betting Post *****
Referring back to Robert Smithson's excellent header a couple of days ago when he considered the Democrats' chances of winning back control of the Senate, he concluded by stating:
"All in all, I think the Democrats have a comfortably better than 50% chance of getting to 50 seats (including Independents). It’s also possible they have a blow out night, picking up both Georgia seats and Iowa. You can sell 51 or more Republican seats at slightly worse than evens on Smarkets, and get only marginally worse returns with Betfred and Ladbrokes. Take them."
As is invariably the case on this supposedly first and foremost betting site, his highly informative and sound recommendations went largely unheeded ... little wonder that I and most other punters like me can no longer be bothered to post our betting ideas on PB.com, only to be met by a wall of indifference.
However, just to round-off matters and express my own appreciation, I followed his advice and having failed to obtain the odds with Smarkets close to those he had suggested, instead I set up a combination bet firstly with BetFred on the GOP winning exactly 50 (i.e. half) the Senate seats at odds of 5/1, staking 31.81% of my total and investing the remaining 68.19% of my stake money with Ladbrokes at odds of 9/5, boosted from 7/4, on the Republicans winning fewer than 50 such seats. In combination, therefore, I have covered them winning fewer than 51 seats which (in Robert's inverted wording) he rates as being a "comfortably better than 50% chance" at combined odds of 10/11 or 1.909 decimal.
That's good value in my book, but DYOR.
Asia beyond Singapore was always a sideshow for the British civil service, and if one looks at reporting from the era, the population as a whole, beyond what Robinson and Gallagher called the “informal empire”. That fed through to the whole VJ feeling (where the British were, by any stretch, the poor relation anyway).
As an aside “the war over this year” reporting is interesting given the timeline of Downfall/Olympic/Coronet
It is remarkable that you can "lock in" a profit by backing both Trump and Biden to win in November, which means of course the market is unsure that one or both will even run (in which case it is not locked in). I suspect such fears are oversold but even so, I've not indulged.
I don’t have a car so I don’t know.
East Ham as a constituency didn't exist (it was called Newham North East). Reg Prentice was the first MP under the new boundaries - he had a majority of 13,300 and the Liberals got 19%.
Vanessa Redgrave contested the seat for the Workers Revolutionary Party and got 760 votes.
I realy do think that
1) There is a very high chance that eventually most people will get this.
2) Given point 1) it would be better if the health people got it than the old/ill
3) Without the lock down, young/healthy people will take more risks, get it first,, letting it die out without as many old/ill people having to get it.
4) The appoch will not have perfect results but will be better than lock down.
And ones again, thanks for keeping this civil.
Without any one of those three, the war would have been lost.
This was the first election I can recall seeing on the box - Richard Dimbleby, Bob McKenzie, David Butler the familiar presenters. Interesting that no comment was made on the Wolverhampton result (Enoch Powell)
Obviously, no one knew about the atomic bomb and they had to plan for the possibility a) it might not work and b) even if it did, the Japanese would fight on.
Historians still argue as to whether it was the atomic bomb or the Soviet conquest of Manchuria which forced the surrender or perhaps both.