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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden’s VP pick: The case for Kamala Harris
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden’s VP pick: The case for Kamala Harris
The most lively political betting market at the moment is on who Joe Biden will choose to be his nominee for the vice presidential slot. The party convention is not due to take place until August vote but it is expected that he will make an announcement sometime before then.
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I have recently been commenting on the failing health of my son in laws father (87) who has been prevented from going into care or hospital despite multiple health issues and falls. His wife is in dementia care and he has not seen her since February
His falls became so serious, often several a day, that his doctor undertook a health review and managed to find a care home for him. He had a covid test and once clear was admitted into care last Wednesday
Yesterday he fell in the care home pulling out his catheter and the paramedics decided to admit him from the care home into A & E. Eventually he was admitted onto a ward and his family were told the nurse in charge of him would phone his family today with an update
The phone call this lunchtime by the nurse confirmed he was on the 'red ward' (covid) after coming through A & E. They said he was having another test for covid and the result should be to hand tomorrow, following which he will remain on red ward, or be placed on amber or green wards. She said that he was having problems with his bowels this morning and when they were not looking he got up and promptly fell across the ward
Furthermore, they had no idea about the catheter or his early dementia as A & E had not sent on his notes. She said that the catheter will be inserted and that a nurse will be at his bedside as long as he was on the ward
She did say that once he is well enough he will be scheduled to be sent back to care but only after another test
When we all discuss these matters I do think we tend to be rather superficial and partisan and I am sure few of us realise the practical difficulties between care and hospitals or hospital and care homes
It is complex, and very worrying for families because they cannot see or communicate with their loved ones
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1259120018501046273?s=20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-SaRDG6V-s&t=216s
I thought it was clear that what they are trying for in Sweden is to reduce R, so that a Herd Immunity kicks in at a much lower overall infection rate.
So I created the following - the first column is the minimum % for Herd Immunity at the R number given in the second column. Done with the 1-1/R0 formula....
Percentage
Immune R
4.76% 1.05
9.09% 1.10
13.04% 1.15
16.67% 1.20
20.00% 1.25
23.08% 1.30
25.93% 1.35
28.57% 1.40
31.03% 1.45
33.33% 1.50
37.50% 1.60
41.18% 1.70
44.44% 1.80
47.37% 1.90
50.00% 2.00
52.38% 2.10
54.55% 2.20
56.52% 2.30
58.33% 2.40
60.00% 2.50
61.54% 2.60
62.96% 2.70
64.29% 2.80
65.52% 2.90
66.67% 3.00
BTW, I assume preparations for the feast of the firstborns are still underway, despite the pandemic?
The diferance in age vanrabilaty in this virus is shocking,
looking at the numbers who have dies in the different age cohorts, then the virus is between 1,000 to 10,000 more leathal to an over 80 as to an under 40.
To me this is like being toled that the enemy tanks have 1 meter think armer at the front and only 1 mm think armer at the sides, and not saying 'lets try to get around the sides and shoot there'.
my parents are late 70s and late 80s they are sensibly staying at home, but every day this goes on is a day they could fall over and brake an arm and need to go in to hospital, which at the moment would be very risky for them. meanwhile I am stuck at home, with my wife. and based on our good health, would have a perhaps 1 in 100,000 change of dying if we got it. Let me take the risk so my parents don't have to.
In visits to hospital, for my children and others, I have found that a shift change often creates a massive data gap. This is isn't the fault of the staff - the system is fundementally broken.
/joke
The point was that the idea of BJ as some saintly turner of the other cheek is effing hilarious.
Kathleen Harris has a problematic history as a prosecutor -
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opinion/kamala-harris-criminal-justice.html?searchResultPosition=1
Basically, she built a reputation as a hard charging prosecutor. Lookup Teresa Sheehan for an example that is a bit... hmmm..... enthusiastic....
This may be a major turn off for the African-American community.
One thing it does not catch, is that not everybody is equal in this. a buss driver that like to go to night clubs is much more likely to catch the virus and pass it on that say a computer programmer who works form home whos only hobby is playing computer games. to take 2 extreme examples.
As the people who are most likely to get early are also the people who are most likely to pass it on to lots of people, this is very hard if not impossible to modal, but will mean that the effective community immunity will always be higher than the actual community immunity, but an indeterminate amount.
Otoh I'm pretty sure this isn't a million miles off the mark.
https://youtu.be/ZAxA-9D4X3o
They got whacked hard at the outset but may now be experiencing a pay-off.
And yes I know elections don't swing around appealing to Libertarians, this election will be no different, but I feel so strongly about her and her abuse of power, that I feel complied to bring it up when Harris is talked about.
I have mixed feelings about this.
Did you get to build lots of golf courses?
On second thoughts I will just put them On The List.
Interesting. If R is less than 1 then you have herd immunity instantly, but it's not a "true" herd immunity till you've reached the natural R_0 of the virus.
Biden is seen/remembered as the faithful VP to Obama in the AA community.
If he does though he needs an almost perfect VP choice. Someone who won't overshadow him - tricky, very tricky, and someone that isn't a white male - which is actually very easy.
The VP choice is basically the Presidential candidate anyway.
Meanwhile. Pence!?
If we misuse "herd immunity" in the situation where an epidemic is raging and we are dependent on social distancing to keep R down it won't behave like this at all. Firstly "herd immunity" actually indicates the peak of infections, not when the disease dies out. Secondly absent genuine immunity, any suppression of R won't reduce deaths overall unless those isolating consistently have no interaction with anyone else. It just means they die more slowly.
In short, "herd immunity" isn't a policy for managing an epidemic.
Our problem is that we’ve started the lockdown process with a very high base level of infection. R really needs to be crushed to make keeping things under control post lockdown feasible.
https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1259115356972560385
.
At the same time they are hoping that an increase in the number immune will "come and meet them", as it were.
So they are trying to achieve a situation where the disease dies down to a background level.
The Highlanders weren't that great.
Went for a nice science victory in the end.
We Will Find You.
Any good?
However, she brings nothing positive (really) to the ticket. She *might* help the Democrats a little bit in North Carolina. But that's really a might. She also reinforces - to the Sanders-ites - that their wing of the party has been ignored.
That being said, if the maxim is "first do no harm", then Harris is not a bad pick. Picking someone from the Left of the party works if the Presidential nominee is of sound mind and body. Choosing someone from the Left when it's Joe Biden is a dangerous gambit that could backfire.
I like Kamala. I think she'd be a good VP and a good President. I think she has a toughness that Obama lacked. But I don't know if she's a good bet here. I suspect that she's not.
The situation in the rest of the country looks a little more awkward. Scotland is trending consistently downwards but only very gradually, which is consistent with Nicola Sturgeon's concerns that their R number may be closer to 1.0. Wales and Northern Ireland are a bit more erratic and have an apparent peak in late rather than early April, so goodness knows what's going on there.
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1258927803992543232
"At the same time they are hoping that an increase in the number immune will "come and meet them", as it were." We're back to the idea of herd immunity without the actual immunity. Natural immunity for CV19 (ie when the epidemic finally dies out) is about 85% to 90% I believe. The difference from everyone being infected is minimal,
https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries?fbclid=IwAR2LVWhjRdO4b67HkrbNE66K1lCDv2LU2v4FpLBwQphqN1Dge4xFLARRqJE
i) A low base level of infection
ii) A sensible population, or one that normally has a higher than average level of social distancing
iii) A population that's prepared to be even more cautious than normal for a very long time indeed.
I'm not sure we're there on any of those counts in this country.
There's no particular reason why it won't work.
One for town planners perhaps.
Then again Madrid never seemed to have this problem..
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1258032323343376384
Sensible countries will steer clear of the Swedish example.
My local nature reserve was apparently absolutely rammed this afternoon. At least two close neighbours have had friends around chatting and drinking all afternoon in their garden.
How times change.
Very glad we don't have that here.
Many were crowing about how we're different to the Catholic southern European nations a couple of months back, and the undisciplined and disorganised Italians in particular. I did a bit of it myself.
Turned out to be bollocks, didn't it?
https://twitter.com/C4Ciaran/status/1258907561031618561?s=20
Provided it wasn't touched by anyone else before that wasn't wearing protective gloves (and I'm sure it wasn't - people would have needed the confidence to do this) and they just did it once and they ditched it, I'm sure it's fine.
And it was being filmed too. No-one wants to get caught on TV breaking the law even if they want to off screen.
At least fifty cars formed a huge queue outside a Greater Manchester KFC over the Bank Holiday weekend
Mancunians have been making the most of the fast food branch re-opening.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/kfc-long-queues-levenshulme-drivers-18226721
And so many smoking in the workplace.