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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM also has the Tories with a 2% lead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM also has the Tories with a 2% lead
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Monday opinion polls are the Golden Day standard
1% Lab and then 2 with 2% Tory lead
And it's not Labour...
Con 27 (+2), Lab 24 (-12, yes minus twelve), LD 7 (+1) UKIP 26 (+4) Green 10 (+4)
ICM= Gold Standard
The approval figures are fascinating. Net ratings:
Cameron +2
Osborne +5
Farage -8
Clegg -21
Miliband -25
Yep. That's right: Osborne highest, both Tories in positive territory, and Miliband below Clegg (top idea, that Labour PPB).
It'd be fascinating to see what's happened to the LD-Labour switchers. The assumption has to be that they're mostly still on-side, if leaking slightly; it's the previous core vote that's leaving. If so, that'd put Labour down in the low- to mid-twenties without the Red Liberals - as bad a score as during Brown's dog days.
I'm prepared to say this one will be an all time best!
Con 22 (-4)
UKIP 21 (+8)
Lab 19 (+6)
Green 5 (+3)
LDs 0 (-11)
SNP 2 (nc)
Plaid 1 (nc)
Oh and Ed is crap, but thats just universal.
JBriskin said:
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I must admit - it is just a gut feeling.
Get to your GP and get that gut seen to it is malfunctioning.
After two years of labour being in the lead....
Behind in one poll might have been an outlier. Behind in two is absolutely dreadful for Labour - and at an awful time
Mark Thompson @MarkReckons 3s
@Markfergusonuk Labour need to do something sharpish. I don't want to live in a world where Dan Hodges is right!
"Thank gawd the football season ends tomorrow... for my lot at least. Time for the much awaited cross-over poll this week to mark that celebration I feel..."
in politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chances are that for half of all the votes will have been Comment by Scrapheap_as_was May 10
I can't recall a 12% drop in any poll ever.
But a black day for Labour. Black Monday.
The Euro poll is devastating - 24% and third place.
The vast majority on here will be happy and a few like me a little worried, but let's not get too carried away. We need to study the trend for the next 2-4 weeks please.
There seems to be a drfit from Labour to UKIP - this will probably unwind as we head to the GE and Labour's superior ground war campaign kicks in.
Scotland is the big unknown - these polls will not help the Better Together campaign. Are we seeing the beginning of the end for the UK?
Lab plus 2, Con minus 3, LD minus 10, UKIP plus 12
Both still seem to be up there if anyone's up for it.
I have to hand it to Rod, he got it bang on.
This is just two polls but it shows that Lab's 34% floor is not as solid as it appeared.
Won't last, fill yer boots
Euro voting is a whole different ball game.
Meanwhile, that Gary Barlow tax dodge......was set up under Labour.....and under the coalition it's been sorted out....
Addendum: unless as others suggest as the ballot box approaches it concentrates minds. In which case it might be Labour got the wrong brother after all.
The problem for Labour isn't those two polls. The problem is when there's a bit of a bounce back up, and everyone says "panic over".
Mike did tip them at 55/1 on betfair.
I always said Yvette Cooper was the right choice for Labour leader.
Thanks. Great value. But I can't find the market on the iphone - any ideas?
http://www.bet365.com/instantbet/default.asp?participantid=509927465&affiliatecode=odc10&odds=28/1&instantbet=1
One to watch is the London council elections...
The Kipper whining could provide this country with enough energy for a century.
EDIT
Now 10-1!
So yes, awful polls for Labour but we were always going to get one or two. Be interesting to see if this is exciting outliers or a new trend.
Con's only down marginally on 2010, means Newark should be even more of a hold?
I will die laughing.
Martin Boon @martinboon 13m
@IveMetJoeBlack @OwenJones84 @pollycurtis oh. Labour suffering from high partial refusal - easily main reason for their drop on this poll.
Owen Jones @OwenJones84 12m
@martinboon @IveMetJoeBlack @pollycurtis high partial refusal? They're refusing to say?
7:30 PM - 12 May 2014 · Details
Martin Boon @martinboon 5m
@OwenJones84 @IveMetJoeBlack @pollycurtis Not at all. 48 ex Labour now partial Refusers, 12 to ukip and 8 to others. Tabs up tomorrow.
(^_-)
The only question is when surely?
The Conservatives.
Current Tory lead 2% and using the above swing gives Tory lead at GE of 6%.
Back to square one?
Indeed. I live on a council estate. I'm scared.
It's when you fall in the water but the horse doesn't*. Have fun Boba.
*I'm guessing
You're in for a treat. :-)
http://www.deliaonline.com/recipes/cuisine/european/english/basic-pancakes.html