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SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited May 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM also has the Tories with a 2% lead

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  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited May 2014
    What a day!

    Monday opinion polls are the Golden Day standard

    1% Lab and then 2 with 2% Tory lead
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    The British people have decided.

    And it's not Labour...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Broken, sleazy Labour going down the pan....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Guardian ICM Euros Poll

    Con 27 (+2), Lab 24 (-12, yes minus twelve), LD 7 (+1) UKIP 26 (+4) Green 10 (+4)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Obviously YouGov is the gold standard.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Must be time for an Ed is Crap thread.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2014
    What could have been the event that caused Labour to drop 6 in a westmister poll and 12 points in a euro poll in a single month? Something of this size just doen't happen by itself.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,470
    Happy Crossover Day.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Guardian ICM Euros Poll

    Con 27 (+2), Lab 24 (-12, yes minus twelve), LD 7 (+1) UKIP 26 (+4) Green 10 (+4)

    LOL! Hard to believe that....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Poor Dan Hodges must have jizzed himself inside out today.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Speedy said:

    What could have been the event that caused Labour to drop 6 in a westmister poll and 12 points in a euro poll in a single month? Something of this size just doen't happen by itself.

    Did you see the PEB?
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 356
    Confirmation of crossover right on cue as Mr Crosby predicted.
    ICM= Gold Standard
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Guardian ICM Euros Poll

    Con 27 (+2), Lab 24 (-12, yes minus twelve), LD 7 (+1) UKIP 26 (+4) Green 10 (+4)

    That's astonishing the Cons leading in Euro voting intention.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Iff the Tories finish first in the Euros, I promise to give up my subtle pop music references for the rest of the parliament.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Where's 'pouter? I'm guessing he's scraping a flattened squirrel off the road, with a shovel.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,357
    I don't know. You wait two years for a Tory lead in a poll then two come along at once.

    The approval figures are fascinating. Net ratings:

    Cameron +2
    Osborne +5
    Farage -8
    Clegg -21
    Miliband -25

    Yep. That's right: Osborne highest, both Tories in positive territory, and Miliband below Clegg (top idea, that Labour PPB).

    It'd be fascinating to see what's happened to the LD-Labour switchers. The assumption has to be that they're mostly still on-side, if leaking slightly; it's the previous core vote that's leaving. If so, that'd put Labour down in the low- to mid-twenties without the Red Liberals - as bad a score as during Brown's dog days.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited May 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Poor Dan Hodges must have jizzed himself inside out today.

    Meanwhile Fraser Nelson and Ian Martin will be feeling thoroughly depressed...
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    The last thread was a keeper for the lefties as we blues frothed.

    I'm prepared to say this one will be an all time best!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Guardian ICM Euros Poll

    Con 27 (+2), Lab 24 (-12, yes minus twelve), LD 7 (+1) UKIP 26 (+4) Green 10 (+4)

    LOL! Hard to believe that....
    ICM Euros UNS (if true!)

    Con 22 (-4)
    UKIP 21 (+8)
    Lab 19 (+6)
    Green 5 (+3)
    LDs 0 (-11)
    SNP 2 (nc)
    Plaid 1 (nc)
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 356
    If you fall down in the street tomorrow expect Ed to come and hold your hand. It seems to have worked a treat for Dave.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Speedy said:

    What could have been the event that caused Labour to drop 6 in a westmister poll and 12 points in a euro poll in a single month? Something of this size just doen't happen by itself.

    Combination of several thing... Good economic news, people might have noticed more take home pay in their packet, the rise of UKIP, labour retreating to pathetic class warfare...

    Oh and Ed is crap, but thats just universal.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,575
    FPT

    JBriskin said:

    » show previous quotes
    I must admit - it is just a gut feeling.

    Get to your GP and get that gut seen to it is malfunctioning.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,908
    Scott_P said:

    Speedy said:

    What could have been the event that caused Labour to drop 6 in a westmister poll and 12 points in a euro poll in a single month? Something of this size just doen't happen by itself.

    Did you see the PEB?
    Yes, but I don't think anyone else did.

  • glwglw Posts: 10,470
    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Guardian ICM Euros Poll

    Con 27 (+2), Lab 24 (-12, yes minus twelve), LD 7 (+1) UKIP 26 (+4) Green 10 (+4)

    LOL! Hard to believe that....
    Given the earlier Osborne/Miliband mistake I hope someone has double checked that.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Speedy said:

    What could have been the event that caused Labour to drop 6 in a westmister poll and 12 points in a euro poll in a single month? Something of this size just doen't happen by itself.

    Farage going after the soft target, perhaps?
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Guardian ICM Euros Poll

    Con 27 (+2), Lab 24 (-12, yes minus twelve), LD 7 (+1) UKIP 26 (+4) Green 10 (+4)

    That's astonishing the Cons leading in Euro voting intention.
    A truly astounding collapse over a month unprecedented I believe for any party in any poll of any kind over a month. What can possibly explain that??
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    The last thread was a keeper for the lefties as we blues frothed.

    I'm prepared to say this one will be an all time best!

    Haha maybe, but im prepared to risk it...

    After two years of labour being in the lead....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Mark Ferguson ‏@Markfergusonuk 7m
    Behind in one poll might have been an outlier. Behind in two is absolutely dreadful for Labour - and at an awful time


    Mark Thompson ‏@MarkReckons 3s
    @Markfergusonuk Labour need to do something sharpish. I don't want to live in a world where Dan Hodges is right!
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,908
    JohnLilburne said:

    Scott_P said:

    Speedy said:

    What could have been the event that caused Labour to drop 6 in a westmister poll and 12 points in a euro poll in a single month? Something of this size just doen't happen by itself.

    Did you see the PEB?
    Yes, but I don't think anyone else did.

    Although things continue to move the polls which you would presume only political geeks notice. Maybe it's more subliminal, like mood music - people catching sight of newspaper headlines etc

  • glwglw Posts: 10,470
    Speedy said:

    What could have been the event that caused Labour to drop 6 in a westmister poll and 12 points in a euro poll in a single month? Something of this size just doen't happen by itself.

    People realised that it is now less than a year until Ed could become PM?

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Buffs nails.....

    "Thank gawd the football season ends tomorrow... for my lot at least. Time for the much awaited cross-over poll this week to mark that celebration I feel..."

    in politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chances are that for half of all the votes will have been Comment by Scrapheap_as_was May 10
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Yes Scotland raise a glass to these polls.Belters together fill their breeks.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that ICM has introduced some turnout filter to their Euros poll given how close we are to it.

    I can't recall a 12% drop in any poll ever.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Is Ed working on a 25% strategy ?
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    The only thing I can cling on to is that there have been some truly weird polls about of late - only yesterday two pollsters put the Tories in the 20s, while YouGov gave Labour a seven point lead.

    But a black day for Labour. Black Monday.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    MalcolmG - Thanks. Without being overly explicit I've got my meds.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    glw said:

    Speedy said:

    What could have been the event that caused Labour to drop 6 in a westmister poll and 12 points in a euro poll in a single month? Something of this size just doen't happen by itself.

    People realised that it is now less than a year until Ed could become PM?

    Correct. Opinion polls mid term are for the birds. The closer the election the more truthful the electorate become...
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    edited May 2014
    Bad polls for Labour.

    The Euro poll is devastating - 24% and third place.

    The vast majority on here will be happy and a few like me a little worried, but let's not get too carried away. We need to study the trend for the next 2-4 weeks please.

    There seems to be a drfit from Labour to UKIP - this will probably unwind as we head to the GE and Labour's superior ground war campaign kicks in.

    Scotland is the big unknown - these polls will not help the Better Together campaign. Are we seeing the beginning of the end for the UK?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Changes since the last election.

    Lab plus 2, Con minus 3, LD minus 10, UKIP plus 12
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,862
    Tories still 25/1 to win most votes at Ladbrokes. That seems a bit long now. I'm glad I also took the 12/1 tricast for UKIP-Con-Lab at Ladbrokes.

    Both still seem to be up there if anyone's up for it.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    I'm so glad I didn't make any comments about the Ashcroft poll being dodgy.

    I have to hand it to Rod, he got it bang on.

    This is just two polls but it shows that Lab's 34% floor is not as solid as it appeared.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Whatever happens, it goes to show that for most of the year, people dont make much notice of politics, when they start to, things can change.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    edited May 2014
    Tories are 28/1 with Bet365 to win the most votes in the Euros.

    Won't last, fill yer boots
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,908
    edited May 2014
    Plenty of left leaning people who understand a Europeans first choice of Green isn't a wasted vote. It's where my #1 is going. But probably not at GE.

    Euro voting is a whole different ball game.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Guardian ICM Euros Poll

    Con 27 (+2), Lab 24 (-12, yes minus twelve), LD 7 (+1) UKIP 26 (+4) Green 10 (+4)

    LOL! Hard to believe that....
    I think we need yougov and the ICM tables to find out what is going on.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    BobaFett said:

    The only thing I can cling on to is that there have been some truly weird polls about of late - only yesterday two pollsters put the Tories in the 20s, while YouGov gave Labour a seven point lead.

    But a black day for Labour. Black Monday.

    I shouldn't worry a) the leads will reverse in a couple of days (if that long) and b) the Parliamentary Labour Party shows commendable fortitude under fire (unlike their Tory brethren, who panic at the slightest opportunity)...

    Meanwhile, that Gary Barlow tax dodge......was set up under Labour.....and under the coalition it's been sorted out....

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    TGOHF said:

    Is Ed working on a 25% strategy ?

    It's all down to his 'intellectual self-confidence'. Who will he blame - Axelrod or Wee Dougie?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited May 2014
    BobaFett said:

    The only thing I can cling on to is that there have been some truly weird polls about of late - only yesterday two pollsters put the Tories in the 20s, while YouGov gave Labour a seven point lead.

    But a black day for Labour. Black Monday.

    Valid point. YouGov were +6 or so only last night. Now I'm increasingly not a fan of Ed the more he unveils his interventionist self, I'll grant you, but the sudden volatility is a bit weird. Too weird.

    Addendum: unless as others suggest as the ballot box approaches it concentrates minds. In which case it might be Labour got the wrong brother after all.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Slackbladder said:

    Whatever happens, it goes to show that for most of the year, people dont make much notice of politics, when they start to, things can change.

    Yes and it's rarely to Labour's benefit, so when it is a serious choice and not Euros it don't bode well.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tories are 28/1 with Bet365 to win the most votes in the Euros.

    Won't last, fill yer boots

    You can get better on betfair at the moment
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    For the purposes of comparison, Dave and the Tories had an 11% with ICM in May 2009
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    CarlottaVance said:

    BobaFett said:

    The only thing I can cling on to is that there have been some truly weird polls about of late - only yesterday two pollsters put the Tories in the 20s, while YouGov gave Labour a seven point lead.

    But a black day for Labour. Black Monday.

    I shouldn't worry a) the leads will reverse in a couple of days (if that long) and b) the Parliamentary Labour Party shows commendable fortitude under fire (unlike their Tory brethren, who panic at the slightest opportunity)...

    Meanwhile, that Gary Barlow tax dodge......was set up under Labour.....and under the coalition it's been sorted out....

    Thanks for the comfort but that Euro poll is quite something. If anything, it's more terrifying than the Westminster polling - how on Earth can Labour have lost 12pts in a month? What the hell is going on out there?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Slackbladder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tories are 28/1 with Bet365 to win the most votes in the Euros.

    Won't last, fill yer boots

    You can get better on betfair at the moment
    The last £2 at 33-1 disappeared as I was trying to get it. Still on at max (£17.84) with 365.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 53s

    The problem for Labour isn't those two polls. The problem is when there's a bit of a bounce back up, and everyone says "panic over".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Slackbladder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tories are 28/1 with Bet365 to win the most votes in the Euros.

    Won't last, fill yer boots

    You can get better on betfair at the moment
    Of course.

    Mike did tip them at 55/1 on betfair.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tories are 28/1 with Bet365 to win the most votes in the Euros.

    Won't last, fill yer boots

    Even with this weird poll UKIP close the gap from 16% to just 1% for the lead. So no one believes that the tories will win the euros, even postal votes are in favour of UKIP this time.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Labour are clearly heading for third place in both the Euros and the Newark by-election.

    I always said Yvette Cooper was the right choice for Labour leader.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Admittedly the ICM Euros poll would please the Tories no end, but they're still way odds on to get a battering of one sort or another in the Euros - red or purple. They'll be pleased to be in a decent polling position though to withstand it and not lose their nerve (not down to the final straw, so to speak).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Hold up, wasn't the rent control policy so brilliant and going to boost Lab's vote share?
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @TSE

    Thanks. Great value. But I can't find the market on the iphone - any ideas?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    UKIP Con Lab tricast astounding value at 12-1.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    BobaFett said:

    @TSE

    Thanks. Great value. But I can't find the market on the iphone - any ideas?

    Try here

    http://www.bet365.com/instantbet/default.asp?participantid=509927465&affiliatecode=odc10&odds=28/1&instantbet=1
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP Con Lab tricast astounding value at 12-1.

    Which firm is that?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    The REAL elections next week take on even more importance.

    One to watch is the London council elections...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Lab maj 2015 last matched on Betfair at 2.8...
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,908
    AndyJS said:

    Labour are clearly heading for third place in both the Euros and the Newark by-election.

    I always said Yvette Cooper was the right choice for Labour leader.

    Have to say that whether that's a tongue in cheek comment or not, Labour needs to get more of it's up and coming female politicians in the public eye. It's one area where they can hurt Cameron.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Just imagine if the Tories win the Euros, and their lead over UKIP was less than what An Independence from Europe polled.

    The Kipper whining could provide this country with enough energy for a century.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP Con Lab tricast astounding value at 12-1.

    Which firm is that?
    Sadblokes
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP Con Lab tricast astounding value at 12-1.

    Which firm is that?
    Ladbrokes. It was 16-1 last week.

    EDIT
    Now 10-1!

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,655
    You've got to laugh. -12 since the last Euro poll and the Tories in the lead on ICM. Well, that's a gap between them and YouGov nearly in double digits (ICM Con +2, YG Lab +7) which is almost as silly as some of the gaps between pollsters before the last GE (who were the Canadian outfit so out from everyone else?).

    So yes, awful polls for Labour but we were always going to get one or two. Be interesting to see if this is exciting outliers or a new trend.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,908
    Could this be a Black Squirrel event for Ed?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Other thing to infer from this poll.

    Con's only down marginally on 2010, means Newark should be even more of a hold?
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I seem never to be able to log-in anymore but it's worth a try vis-a-vis today's polls to say LOL.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    welshowl said:

    BobaFett said:

    The only thing I can cling on to is that there have been some truly weird polls about of late - only yesterday two pollsters put the Tories in the 20s, while YouGov gave Labour a seven point lead.

    But a black day for Labour. Black Monday.

    Valid point. YouGov were +6 or so only last night. Now I'm increasingly not a fan of Ed the more he unveils his interventionist self, I'll grant you, but the sudden volatility is a bit weird. Too weird.

    Addendum: unless as others suggest as the ballot box approaches it concentrates minds. In which case it might be Labour got the wrong brother after all.
    The ICM and Ashcroft are well in line with many other polls - they seem plausible. But not even the most blinkered Labourite thinks the Tories are in the 20s, and how do we explain a Euro drop of 12pts for Labour?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2014
    Anyway I'm waiting for yougov and the ICM tables tommorow.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Other thing to infer from this poll.

    Con's only down marginally on 2010, means Newark should be even more of a hold?

    Newark has never been in doubt I reckon.
  • Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    Con Gov with UKIP opposition.

    I will die laughing.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hold up, wasn't the rent control policy so brilliant and going to boost Lab's vote share?

    Yeah well it worried me, as did magic reductions of gas bills, and warning building companies about "hoarding land". It's the 70's again. One step from exchange controls and prices and incomes policies. I suspect we are at the point that just about most of the electorate don't remember the 70's. I do. It was crap.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    edited May 2014
    This is what Martin Boon of ICM has just tweeted

    Martin Boon ‏@martinboon 13m

    @IveMetJoeBlack @OwenJones84 @pollycurtis oh. Labour suffering from high partial refusal - easily main reason for their drop on this poll.

    Owen Jones ‏@OwenJones84 12m
    @martinboon @IveMetJoeBlack @pollycurtis high partial refusal? They're refusing to say?


    7:30 PM - 12 May 2014 · Details
    Martin Boon ‏@martinboon 5m
    @OwenJones84 @IveMetJoeBlack @pollycurtis Not at all. 48 ex Labour now partial Refusers, 12 to ukip and 8 to others. Tabs up tomorrow.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,736
    Ugh - the Euro poll is especially striking! Both Ashcroft and ICM use the spiral of silence, which at the moment tends to hurt UKIP and help the Tories, so it'll be interesting to compare with Yougoiv later, but there's no question that they're poor results for Labour.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:


    I mean, help. It's just pitiful. There isn't a single, serious costed policy here, not a whiff of a chance that Labour have the ghost of an idea how to deal with the deficit, and our looming debt, and everything else that ails us. Just an endless serious of vacuous wishes and aspirations, like the Christmas list of a socially retarded 13 year old.

    This is not a programme for governance, it's a letter to Santa.

    I bet David Miliband is laughing himself hoarse tonight
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Mind you, I think we will see occasional Labour poll leads for the rest of the year...

    (^_-)
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [I always said Yvette Cooper was the right choice for Labour leader.]

    The only question is when surely?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Martin Boon ‏@martinboon 13m

    @IveMetJoeBlack @OwenJones84 @pollycurtis oh. Labour suffering from high partial refusal - easily main reason for their drop on this poll.

    Is that a show jumping term?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Monksfield said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour are clearly heading for third place in both the Euros and the Newark by-election.
    I always said Yvette Cooper was the right choice for Labour leader.

    Have to say that whether that's a tongue in cheek comment or not, Labour needs to get more of it's up and coming female politicians in the public eye. It's one area where they can hurt Cameron.
    A double dose of the Eagle sisters will help....


    The Conservatives.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    edited May 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the purposes of comparison, Dave and the Tories had an 11% with ICM in May 2009

    2010 Election result 7% lead, so a swing towards the governing party of 2% over the last year of a Parliament.

    Current Tory lead 2% and using the above swing gives Tory lead at GE of 6%.

    Back to square one?

  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,908
    welshowl said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hold up, wasn't the rent control policy so brilliant and going to boost Lab's vote share?


    Yeah well it worried me, as did magic reductions of gas bills, and warning building companies about "hoarding land". It's the 70's again. One step from exchange controls and prices and incomes policies. I suspect we are at the point that just about most of the electorate don't remember the 70's. I do. It was crap.
    Bollocks. The 70s was a completely different paradigm. Union power, no globalisation as we know it, no IT revolution. However, I do wonder if the 2015 election will still be a good one to lose. This debt driven recovery can only eventually take us back to 2008.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited May 2014
    [Hold up, wasn't the rent control policy so brilliant and going to boost Lab's vote share?]

    Indeed. I live on a council estate. I'm scared.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    SeanT said:

    (Ed's manifesto) ..... This is not a programme for governance, it's a letter to Santa.

    Brilliant

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tried to get on UKIP/Con/Lab at 10/1 but it changed to 8/1 during the process.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Other thing to infer from this poll.

    Con's only down marginally on 2010, means Newark should be even more of a hold?

    Not necessarily, could mean more Lab defections to UKIP.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    murali_s said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the purposes of comparison, Dave and the Tories had an 11% with ICM in May 2009

    2010 Election result 7% lead, so a swing towards the governing party of 2% over the last year of a Parliament.
    Current Tory lead 2% and using the above swing gives Tory lead at GE of 6%.
    Back to square one?
    But with the Conservatives having a massive number of incumbents and Lab fighting to hold marginals against the Conservatives and the SNP.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    murali_s said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the purposes of comparison, Dave and the Tories had an 11% with ICM in May 2009

    2010 Election result 7% lead, so a swing towards the governing party of 2% over the last year of a Parliament.

    Current Tory lead 2% and using the above swing gives Tory lead at GE of 6%.

    Back to square one?

    Seems plausible. What the L&N model has been saying for the past year...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    murali_s said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the purposes of comparison, Dave and the Tories had an 11% with ICM in May 2009

    2010 Election result 7% lead, so a swing towards the governing party of 2% over the last year of a Parliament.

    Current Tory lead 2% and using the above swing gives Tory lead at GE of 6%.

    Back to square one?

    Possibly, I think that's Rod's prediction, and he's proving himself to be quite the visionary.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    What is a partial refuser?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,575
    SeanT said:

    Horrendous day for Labour.

    And all those worrying that this means Scotland will vote YES should get a bit cleverer.

    The reason the Tories are doing better is, principally, because the economy is improving. Ergo it is also improving in Scotland, as part of the UK.

    Leaving an economically broken UK is more appealing than leaving an apparently renascent, prospering UK. i.e. For all those Scottish Labourites appalled at the idea of 5 more years of Cameron, there will be Scottish floaters thinking: Hang on, the UK is not doing so bad, do I want to risk all this for... some weird kind of semi-freedom?

    So it could easily balance out, especially as Scots will feel insulated from the *worst* of English Toryism by devolution.

    OTOH maybe it will mean Scotland votes YES, which means Labour face the prospect of 1. losing their heartland and then 2. losing the GE to a Tory government which will finally fix the electoral system meaning that Labour will next return to power in 2087.

    Nothing whatsoever can top leaving a TORY UK
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is what Martin Boon of ICM has just tweeted

    Martin Boon ‏@martinboon 13m

    @IveMetJoeBlack @OwenJones84 @pollycurtis oh. Labour suffering from high partial refusal - easily main reason for their drop on this poll.

    Owen Jones ‏@OwenJones84 12m
    @martinboon @IveMetJoeBlack @pollycurtis high partial refusal? They're refusing to say?


    7:30 PM - 12 May 2014 · Details
    Martin Boon ‏@martinboon 5m
    @OwenJones84 @IveMetJoeBlack @pollycurtis Not at all. 48 ex Labour now partial Refusers, 12 to ukip and 8 to others. Tabs up tomorrow.

    What is a "partial refuser"?

  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [What is a partial refuser?]

    It's when you fall in the water but the horse doesn't*. Have fun Boba.

    *I'm guessing
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,575
    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    Yes Scotland raise a glass to these polls.Belters together fill their breeks.

    LOL, can it possibly get better.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    Horrendous day for Labour.

    And all those worrying that this means Scotland will vote YES should get a bit cleverer.

    The reason the Tories are doing better is, principally, because the economy is improving. Ergo it is also improving in Scotland, as part of the UK.

    Leaving an economically broken UK is more appealing than leaving an apparently renascent, prospering UK. i.e. For all those Scottish Labourites appalled at the idea of 5 more years of Cameron, there will be Scottish floaters thinking: Hang on, the UK is not doing so bad, do I want to risk all this for... some weird kind of semi-freedom?

    So it could easily balance out, especially as Scots will feel insulated from the *worst* of English Toryism by devolution.

    OTOH maybe it will mean Scotland votes YES, which means Labour face the prospect of 1. losing their heartland and then 2. losing the GE to a Tory government which will finally fix the electoral system meaning that Labour will next return to power in 2087.

    Nothing whatsoever can top leaving a TORY UK
    Don't you have pancake day in Scotland?

    You're in for a treat. :-)

    http://www.deliaonline.com/recipes/cuisine/european/english/basic-pancakes.html
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