The Euro poll is devastating - 24% and third place.
The vast majority on here will be happy and a few like me a little worried, but let's not get too carried away. We need to study the trend for the next 2-4 weeks please.
There seems to be a drfit from Labour to UKIP - this will probably unwind as we head to the GE and Labour's superior ground war campaign kicks in.
Scotland is the big unknown - these polls will not help the Better Together campaign. Are we seeing the beginning of the end for the UK?
@IsabelOakeshott: If Scotland votes no to indep, will Salmond stand in general election 2015? SNP could do v well indeed. Cd SNP hold hold balance of power?
The nationalists have finally published details of who is funding their campaign to break up the UK, and now we know what we are up against.
One family has donated around 80% of Yes Scotland's total income since their campaign was launched back in 2012. That family has donated around £4.5 million in total to the SNP’s campaign for Scottish separation.
One positive we can take from the disclosure by the nationalists is that it shows there is only one campaign with broad support amongst the people of Scotland - and it's us. Whilst Yes Scotland relies on millionaires to fund their campaign, the campaign to keep Scotland in the UK is funded by thousands of small donations from ordinary Scots.
Despite being the financial underdogs, we are winning this campaign. A new poll published yesterday showed strong support for our campaign for Scotland to remain a proud part of the UK. 61% of Scots back staying in the UK, compared to just 39% supporting separation. It's thanks to your support that we speak for the majority of the Scottish people.
However, we need your support more than ever as we enter the final months of the campaign. The only way we can get our strong positive message across, and to highlight the risks to jobs that separation would pose, is by raising more money. The nationalists can rely on the support of one millionaire family. We don't have that, but we do have you.
"... how do we explain a Euro drop of 12pts for Labour?"
Rogue poll, Mr. Fett. What other explanation could there be? As Mr. Eagles said up-thread no such drop has been seen before.
That said, the trend doesn't seem good for Labour. A year out from a GE and level pegging with the main party of government and a leader whose personal ratings are abysmal doesn't seem like a position from which to win. Still there is a long way to go yet and Cameron should not be feeling confident.
These polls are a gift to the Yes campaign.I expect Salmond to hammer the point home that the only way to avoid the pain of another Tory government at Westminster is to vote Yes.This will have powerful resonance with more Labour inclined supporters as Salmond will now point to the inevitability of another Tory government should further polls indicate similar Tory leads.
@paulwaugh: Lab response to its Incredible Shrinking poll lead will prob be: few Tory switchers/it's a blip/nuffink to do with EdM honest/er, that's it.
Hold up, wasn't the rent control policy so brilliant and going to boost Lab's vote share?
Yeah well it worried me, as did magic reductions of gas bills, and warning building companies about "hoarding land". It's the 70's again. One step from exchange controls and prices and incomes policies. I suspect we are at the point that just about most of the electorate don't remember the 70's. I do. It was crap.
Bollocks. The 70s was a completely different paradigm. Union power, no globalisation as we know it, no IT revolution. However, I do wonder if the 2015 election will still be a good one to lose. This debt driven recovery can only eventually take us back to 2008.
I refute that it was bollocks. It was crap ;-)
Though in fairness I take your points that times were different, though Ed's trend of wishing away high prices or whatever by decree is seriously worrying. It's utopian nonsense. You can intervene here and there granted, but to me it reveals someone who has no grasp that in the vast majority of cases ( not all granted ) the market is the consumer's friend. Globalisation brings cheap prices at Lidl as well as Pfizer sniffing around.
You wait ages for a polling crossover, and then two phone polls doing just that come along at once.. Hopefully Bobafett will have the good grace to accept being a week out on a loose prediction of cross over within a couple of months as margin of error when it comes to the posters like myself.
Twitter Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 30s Lab response to its Incredible Shrinking poll lead will prob be: few Tory switchers/it's a blip/nuffink to do with EdM honest/er, that's it.
All very exciting - a lot of prices are going to be very different tomorrow morning.
It's a bit odd though - it's not as if anything has really happened in the last week to cause Labour to suddenly tank in the polls. Unless it is just a consequence of large numbers of people being confronted with some politics (campaigns, leaflets, broadcasts etc.) and suddenly re-thinking their position. Doesn't seem very plausible, but I'm not sure what else it could be.
A few thoughts. 1. Just 1 in 8 say they're benefitting from economic recovery on Ashcroft 2. A -12 shows either a cataclysmic political disaster has just happened or the poll is wrong or the poll before was wrong. Haven't seen a cataclysm, last poll was in line, so this must be an outlier. 3. Which begs the question is the -6 on their GE poll of the same methodology? 4. Its undeniable that UKIP are starting to attract Labour voters as well as Tories and none of the abovers. I'm not sure they'll stay away - do working class people know what UKIP policies are on issues other than the EU or immigration - but for all of the abuse PB Tories and others throw at Farage it shows that the man understands how to appeal to people outside his normal catchment. 5. What's the marginals position? Last we heard UNS was massively deflating Labour's actual position in the seats needed for victory.
Politics, you've got to love it no matter what side of the fence you sit on - never a dull moment!
You wait ages for a polling crossover, and then two phone polls doing just that come along at once.. Hopefully Bobafett will have the good grace to accept being a week out on a loose prediction of cross over within a couple of months as margin of error when it comes to the posters like myself.
Twitter Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 30s Lab response to its Incredible Shrinking poll lead will prob be: few Tory switchers/it's a blip/nuffink to do with EdM honest/er, that's it.
Indeed. Well done to you - it was a great call, to be fair.
Hold up, wasn't the rent control policy so brilliant and going to boost Lab's vote share?
Yeah well it worried me, as did magic reductions of gas bills, and warning building companies about "hoarding land". It's the 70's again. One step from exchange controls and prices and incomes policies. I suspect we are at the point that just about most of the electorate don't remember the 70's. I do. It was crap.
Bollocks. The 70s was a completely different paradigm. Union power, no globalisation as we know it, no IT revolution. However, I do wonder if the 2015 election will still be a good one to lose. This debt driven recovery can only eventually take us back to 2008.
I refute that it was bollocks. It was crap ;-)
Though in fairness I take your points that times were different, though Ed's trend of wishing away high prices or whatever by decree is seriously worrying. It's utopian nonsense. You can intervene here and there granted, but to me it reveals someone who has no grasp that in the vast majority of cases ( not all granted ) the market is the consumer's friend. Globalisation brings cheap prices at Lidl as well as Pfizer sniffing around.
The 70's were magic. Monthly pay rises , cheap beer , The Sweeney , what more could anyone ask for
All very exciting - a lot of prices are going to be very different tomorrow morning.
It's a bit odd though - it's not as if anything has really happened in the last week to cause Labour to suddenly tank in the polls. Unless it is just a consequence of large numbers of people being confronted with some politics (campaigns, leaflets, broadcasts etc.) and suddenly re-thinking their position. Doesn't seem very plausible, but I'm not sure what else it could be.
There's a history of Westminster polls being unduly influenced by the Euro elections about 1-2 weeks before election day itself.
As workers in the public sector transfer to the private sector, will this change their thinking about politics and the party they support?
Farage has been taking every opportunity to say they are winning over Labour voters. It seems the Labour loss of 6% is mainly moving to UKIP up 4%. Is UKIP's targetting of Labour voters beginning to work?
Hold up, wasn't the rent control policy so brilliant and going to boost Lab's vote share?
Yeah well it worried me, as did magic reductions of gas bills, and warning building companies about "hoarding land". It's the 70's again. One step from exchange controls and prices and incomes policies. I suspect we are at the point that just about most of the electorate don't remember the 70's. I do. It was crap.
Bollocks. The 70s was a completely different paradigm. Union power, no globalisation as we know it, no IT revolution. However, I do wonder if the 2015 election will still be a good one to lose. This debt driven recovery can only eventually take us back to 2008.
I refute that it was bollocks. It was crap ;-)
Though in fairness I take your points that times were different, though Ed's trend of wishing away high prices or whatever by decree is seriously worrying. It's utopian nonsense. You can intervene here and there granted, but to me it reveals someone who has no grasp that in the vast majority of cases ( not all granted ) the market is the consumer's friend. Globalisation brings cheap prices at Lidl as well as Pfizer sniffing around.
The 70's were magic. Monthly pay rises , cheap beer , The Sweeney , what more could anyone ask for
Harold Wilson, Tony Blair, Keir Hardie, Michael Foot, Neil Kinnock, JK Rowling, Andrew Marr, Kirsty Wark, James Naughtie, Stephanie Flanders--we have beaten them all. We have beaten them all.
Ed Milliband can you hear me? Ed Milliband, I have a message for you in the middle of the election campaign. I have a message for you: We have knocked Labour out of the game. Ed Milliband, as they say in your language in the chattering classes around dinner tables in Primrose Hill : Your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating! (attrib Norway)
And all those worrying that this means Scotland will vote YES should get a bit cleverer.
The reason the Tories are doing better is, principally, because the economy is improving. Ergo it is also improving in Scotland, as part of the UK.
Leaving an economically broken UK is more appealing than leaving an apparently renascent, prospering UK. i.e. For all those Scottish Labourites appalled at the idea of 5 more years of Cameron, there will be Scottish floaters thinking: Hang on, the UK is not doing so bad, do I want to risk all this for... some weird kind of semi-freedom?
So it could easily balance out, especially as Scots will feel insulated from the *worst* of English Toryism by devolution.
OTOH maybe it will mean Scotland votes YES, which means Labour face the prospect of 1. losing their heartland and then 2. losing the GE to a Tory government which will finally fix the electoral system meaning that Labour will next return to power in 2087.
Sean, this is a really high risk time for the Better Together campaign. Remember, tories + Lib Dems roughly equals SNP. Everything turns on how the Labour vote splits. Scottish Labour look at that weird north London geek that Labour have chosen who is obsessed with issues with minimal resonance in Scotland and wonder if they can do better on their own. As he is now behind in the polls we are facing a PM with 16% support in Scotland.
So Labour people think, maybe we would be better off without these southern intellectual prats and would have a real chance of control in an independent Scotland.
If these polls still leave "no" behind it is really all over. But it isn't yet.
Labour are clearly heading for third place in both the Euros and the Newark by-election. I always said Yvette Cooper was the right choice for Labour leader.
Have to say that whether that's a tongue in cheek comment or not, Labour needs to get more of it's up and coming female politicians in the public eye. It's one area where they can hurt Cameron.
A double dose of the Eagle sisters will help....
The Conservatives.
Whereas Reeves, De Piero, Creagh etc., all look and sound like normal people....
Con 33% is not really anything to write home about. The trend is bad for Labour but it's not straight red to blue switching. Will be interesting to see what happens after the Euros...
Con 33% is not really anything to write home about. The trend is bad for Labour but it's not straight red to blue switching. Will be interesting to see what happens after the Euros...
Ed will change personality and announce some sensible policies ?
Hold up, wasn't the rent control policy so brilliant and going to boost Lab's vote share?
Yeah well it worried me, as did magic reductions of gas bills, and warning building companies about "hoarding land". It's the 70's again. One step from exchange controls and prices and incomes policies. I suspect we are at the point that just about most of the electorate don't remember the 70's. I do. It was crap.
Bollocks. The 70s was a completely different paradigm. Union power, no globalisation as we know it, no IT revolution. However, I do wonder if the 2015 election will still be a good one to lose. This debt driven recovery can only eventually take us back to 2008.
I refute that it was bollocks. It was crap ;-)
Though in fairness I take your points that times were different, though Ed's trend of wishing away high prices or whatever by decree is seriously worrying. It's utopian nonsense. You can intervene here and there granted, but to me it reveals someone who has no grasp that in the vast majority of cases ( not all granted ) the market is the consumer's friend. Globalisation brings cheap prices at Lidl as well as Pfizer sniffing around.
The 70's were magic. Monthly pay rises , cheap beer , The Sweeney , what more could anyone ask for
Yep. That's right: Osborne highest, both Tories in positive territory, and Miliband below Clegg (top idea, that Labour PPB).
It'd be fascinating to see what's happened to the LD-Labour switchers. The assumption has to be that they're mostly still on-side, if leaking slightly; it's the previous core vote that's leaving. If so, that'd put Labour down in the low- to mid-twenties without the Red Liberals - as bad a score as during Brown's dog days.
I think that is the key. It has taken about 15 months but the message has got through at last. Osborne has delivered. Big time.
15% is UKIP's best ICM result of 2014. Their best ever was 18% in the aftermath of the 2013 local elections (immediately before the local elections they got 9%).
"... how do we explain a Euro drop of 12pts for Labour?"
Rogue poll, Mr. Fett. What other explanation could there be? As Mr. Eagles said up-thread no such drop has been seen before.
That said, the trend doesn't seem good for Labour. A year out from a GE and level pegging with the main party of government and a leader whose personal ratings are abysmal doesn't seem like a position from which to win. Still there is a long way to go yet and Cameron should not be feeling confident.
Anyway Mr L what's your outlook on the Euros ? Mine is ( what's on offer locally ):
Con : No - Osborne Lab : No - Ed LD : No - EU cheese eating surrender monkeys Kippers : No - Fruitcake, loonies and Cameron obsessives Greens : No - Neil BNP- don't like Alex Salmond Harmony Party - don't use hair spray We demand a referendum - No -Nikki Sinclair, MikeK's wet dream AIFE - maybe - outkipper the kippers for a laugh No2EU - maybe - sufficiently anti but offensive to Cameron and Miliband English Democrats - maybe but hmmmm Spoil my vote - maybe but need a strapline.
Overall not terribly attractive, I'm probably most on the Bob Crowe tribute act just because I've never voted that far left before and they haven't a hope in hell. What's your view down south ?
Labour are clearly heading for third place in both the Euros and the Newark by-election. I always said Yvette Cooper was the right choice for Labour leader.
Have to say that whether that's a tongue in cheek comment or not, Labour needs to get more of it's up and coming female politicians in the public eye. It's one area where they can hurt Cameron.
A double dose of the Eagle sisters will help....
The Conservatives.
Whereas Reeves, De Piero, Creagh etc., all look and sound like normal people....
Reeves sounds normal? Yes for a speakyourwieght machine.
Yep. That's right: Osborne highest, both Tories in positive territory, and Miliband below Clegg (top idea, that Labour PPB).
It'd be fascinating to see what's happened to the LD-Labour switchers. The assumption has to be that they're mostly still on-side, if leaking slightly; it's the previous core vote that's leaving. If so, that'd put Labour down in the low- to mid-twenties without the Red Liberals - as bad a score as during Brown's dog days.
I think that is the key. It has taken about 15 months but the message has got through at last. Osborne has delivered. Big time.
And Labour have nothing useful to say.
Isn't it more likely to be the weird EU Parliament campaign Labour have been running? Especially their recent cat-clegg-toffs video.
Immediate reaction to Ed's latest policy on the NHS an appointment times is either disbelief or laughter or both. Doesn't bode well with whatever nonsense he comes up with to attack the evil Tories over the next 12 months.
The thing is Ed & Co actually believe that the country wants the lefty crap they spout.
Con 33% is not really anything to write home about. The trend is bad for Labour but it's not straight red to blue switching. Will be interesting to see what happens after the Euros...
Ed will change personality and announce some sensible policies ?
Another nose job? New teeth? Swap with his brother and see if anyone notices? Promise to re-nationalise British Rail?
Con 33% is not really anything to write home about. The trend is bad for Labour but it's not straight red to blue switching. Will be interesting to see what happens after the Euros...
Ed will change personality and announce some sensible policies ?
"sensible" meaning Tory? How many years without a majority Tory government is it now?
Hold up, wasn't the rent control policy so brilliant and going to boost Lab's vote share?
Yeah well it worried me, as did magic reductions of gas bills, and warning building companies about "hoarding land". It's the 70's again. One step from exchange controls and prices and incomes policies. I suspect we are at the point that just about most of the electorate don't remember the 70's. I do. It was crap.
Bollocks. The 70s was a completely different paradigm. Union power, no globalisation as we know it, no IT revolution. However, I do wonder if the 2015 election will still be a good one to lose. This debt driven recovery can only eventually take us back to 2008.
I refute that it was bollocks. It was crap ;-)
Though in fairness I take your points that times were different, though Ed's trend of wishing away high prices or whatever by decree is seriously worrying. It's utopian nonsense. You can intervene here and there granted, but to me it reveals someone who has no grasp that in the vast majority of cases ( not all granted ) the market is the consumer's friend. Globalisation brings cheap prices at Lidl as well as Pfizer sniffing around.
The 70's were magic. Monthly pay rises , cheap beer , The Sweeney , what more could anyone ask for
Less Bay City Rollers ;-)
Not at all they were also brilliant
I have to admire anyone who can defend Bye Bye Baby and Shang a Lang.
Immediate reaction to Ed's latest policy on the NHS an appointment times is either disbelief or laughter or both. Doesn't bode well with whatever nonsense he comes up with to attack the evil Tories over the next 12 months. The thing is Ed & Co actually believe that the country wants the lefty crap they spout.
But Ed can stand on the "wonderful" long record of Labour running the Welsh NHS since 1997. 18 years of it.
Hold up, wasn't the rent control policy so brilliant and going to boost Lab's vote share?
Yeah well it worried me, as did magic reductions of gas bills, and warning building companies about "hoarding land". It's the 70's again. One step from exchange controls and prices and incomes policies. I suspect we are at the point that just about most of the electorate don't remember the 70's. I do. It was crap.
Bollocks. The 70s was a completely different paradigm. Union power, no globalisation as we know it, no IT revolution. However, I do wonder if the 2015 election will still be a good one to lose. This debt driven recovery can only eventually take us back to 2008.
I refute that it was bollocks. It was crap ;-)
Though in fairness I take your points that times were different, though Ed's trend of wishing away high prices or whatever by decree is seriously worrying. It's utopian nonsense. You can intervene here and there granted, but to me it reveals someone who has no grasp that in the vast majority of cases ( not all granted ) the market is the consumer's friend. Globalisation brings cheap prices at Lidl as well as Pfizer sniffing around.
The 70's were magic. Monthly pay rises , cheap beer , The Sweeney , what more could anyone ask for
Less Bay City Rollers ;-)
Not at all they were also brilliant
I have to admire anyone who can defend Bye Bye Baby and Shang a Lang.
Google Bay City Rollers - they were groundbreaking in Rolf, Jimmy, Gary way.
Hold up, wasn't the rent control policy so brilliant and going to boost Lab's vote share?
Yeah well it worried me, as did magic reductions of gas bills, and warning building companies about "hoarding land". It's the 70's again. One step from exchange controls and prices and incomes policies. I suspect we are at the point that just about most of the electorate don't remember the 70's. I do. It was crap.
Bollocks. The 70s was a completely different paradigm. Union power, no globalisation as we know it, no IT revolution. However, I do wonder if the 2015 election will still be a good one to lose. This debt driven recovery can only eventually take us back to 2008.
I refute that it was bollocks. It was crap ;-)
Though in fairness I take your points that times were different, though Ed's trend of wishing away high prices or whatever by decree is seriously worrying. It's utopian nonsense. You can intervene here and there granted, but to me it reveals someone who has no grasp that in the vast majority of cases ( not all granted ) the market is the consumer's friend. Globalisation brings cheap prices at Lidl as well as Pfizer sniffing around.
The 70's were magic. Monthly pay rises , cheap beer , The Sweeney , what more could anyone ask for
Less Bay City Rollers ;-)
Not at all they were also brilliant
I have to admire anyone who can defend Bye Bye Baby and Shang a Lang.
Yep. That's right: Osborne highest, both Tories in positive territory, and Miliband below Clegg (top idea, that Labour PPB).
It'd be fascinating to see what's happened to the LD-Labour switchers. The assumption has to be that they're mostly still on-side, if leaking slightly; it's the previous core vote that's leaving. If so, that'd put Labour down in the low- to mid-twenties without the Red Liberals - as bad a score as during Brown's dog days.
I think that is the key. It has taken about 15 months but the message has got through at last. Osborne has delivered. Big time.
And Labour have nothing useful to say.
Osborne has delivered..........
Another debt fuelled housing/construction boom, and explicitly covered it with taxpayer guarantees. Wey hey hey.
Ugh - the Euro poll is especially striking! Both Ashcroft and ICM use the spiral of silence, which at the moment tends to hurt UKIP and help the Tories, so it'll be interesting to compare with Yougoiv later, but there's no question that they're poor results for Labour.
Antifrank was right again... the next thread with Lab on 40% with YouGov no doubt will be lefty payback for these 2 threads...
And all those worrying that this means Scotland will vote YES should get a bit cleverer.
The reason the Tories are doing better is, principally, because the economy is improving. Ergo it is also improving in Scotland, as part of the UK.
Leaving an economically broken UK is more appealing than leaving an apparently renascent, prospering UK. i.e. For all those Scottish Labourites appalled at the idea of 5 more years of Cameron, there will be Scottish floaters thinking: Hang on, the UK is not doing so bad, do I want to risk all this for... some weird kind of semi-freedom?
So it could easily balance out, especially as Scots will feel insulated from the *worst* of English Toryism by devolution.
OTOH maybe it will mean Scotland votes YES, which means Labour face the prospect of 1. losing their heartland and then 2. losing the GE to a Tory government which will finally fix the electoral system meaning that Labour will next return to power in 2087.
Sean, this is a really high risk time for the Better Together campaign. Remember, tories + Lib Dems roughly equals SNP. Everything turns on how the Labour vote splits. Scottish Labour look at that weird north London geek that Labour have chosen who is obsessed with issues with minimal resonance in Scotland and wonder if they can do better on their own. As he is now behind in the polls we are facing a PM with 16% support in Scotland.
So Labour people think, maybe we would be better off without these southern intellectual prats and would have a real chance of control in an independent Scotland.
If these polls still leave "no" behind it is really all over. But it isn't yet.
But you've got to be really poor and stupid to want to take all that enormous risk to separate from a country which has the fastest growing economy in the G8, low inflation, fast falling unemployment, a strengthening currency, etc etc....
We are talking about SLAB people here Sean. That still seems feasible.
Hold up, wasn't the rent control policy so brilliant and going to boost Lab's vote share?
Yeah well it worried me, as did magic reductions of gas bills, and warning building companies about "hoarding land". It's the 70's again. One step from exchange controls and prices and incomes policies. I suspect we are at the point that just about most of the electorate don't remember the 70's. I do. It was crap.
Bollocks. The 70s was a completely different paradigm. Union power, no globalisation as we know it, no IT revolution. However, I do wonder if the 2015 election will still be a good one to lose. This debt driven recovery can only eventually take us back to 2008.
I refute that it was bollocks. It was crap ;-)
Though in fairness I take your points that times were different, though Ed's trend of wishing away high prices or whatever by decree is seriously worrying. It's utopian nonsense. You can intervene here and there granted, but to me it reveals someone who has no grasp that in the vast majority of cases ( not all granted ) the market is the consumer's friend. Globalisation brings cheap prices at Lidl as well as Pfizer sniffing around.
The 70's were magic. Monthly pay rises , cheap beer , The Sweeney , what more could anyone ask for
Less Bay City Rollers ;-)
Not at all they were also brilliant
I have to admire anyone who can defend Bye Bye Baby and Shang a Lang.
malc = Woody Pork = Les
Match a Nat to a Roller. That'll give the Diplomacy buffs a run for their money as a PB game.
I still have those God awful tartan sided flared shortish trousers seared on my mind. Some kids wore them in our school playground hundreds of miles from bloody Scotland. As I said the 70's were crap. Odd at least, and I don't want to go back Ed.
DavidL - Ashcroft has just 1 in 8 saying the economic recovery benefits them. That's not Osborne doing anything big times. These two polls show no real upswing to the Tories, just a collapse in the Labour vote to UKIP.
Two very interesting polls, and fantastic for Ashcroft to see his first projection vindicated by ICM on the day it is published. One weeps for the many other pollsters (who shall remain nameless) who have been plying their trade for years and whose credibility is still questioned!
Whilst I am pleased to see these polls, I expect any Conservative lead will be short-lived as (1) Labour reasserts its role as the main depositary of anti-government votes after the Euro elections and (2) Ukip are pegged back as the general election hoves into view and the electorate are confronted with the reality that Ukip have not the people, the experience, the capacity or the policies to govern. The long-term trend will continue though, and Labour's inadequacies will, as long predicted, ultimately result in the Tories enjoying a sustained lead in the popular vote that should, events aside, subsist until polling day.
The fundamentals remain unchanged by these polls:
1. The Tories face an enormous challenge if they are to win a majority. There is nothing yet to indicate that the Tories can improve upon their 2010 share of the vote, despite a likely collapse in the Lib Dem vote. Unless they do, it is likely their lead over Labour will narrow somewhat, even if not by much. Even if they can somehow find an extra gear and win a larger share of the vote, when you analyse the seats they must win to win an overall majority, it looks an almost-impossible task
2. Labour are in deep trouble. Whilst Miliband's inadequacies as a leader and potential prime minister are well documented, Labour's woes are not solely, or even largely, his fault. Exhausted after 13 years in power, weakened by the departure of almost every minister of note from the Blair/Brown era, without a credible economic strategy or policy platform and undecided as to their identity (beyond vague assertions of being the party of social justice and fairness), in any other circumstance we would not be at all surprised that they are performing poorly in the polls. It is only the peculiar dynamics of the coalition, which has created a homeless rump of vaguely left-leaning voters, and the Conservatives low starting point that have given Labour any kind of chance, but all it has really done is papered over the cracks and given Labour the perception of progress, when in fact they have stood still. It is scant consolation that they are in better shape than the Tories were in 2002
...3. There are three "known unknowns" that will have a decisive influence on the general election: (1) the outcome of the Scottish referendum; yes or no, the impact on UK politics is unpredictable but potentially extraordinary (it is quite possible Cameron will be removed if Scotland votes yes, particularly if Ukip still has momentum); (2) how the Liberal Democrats position themselves at the next election; perhaps the most important of the known unknowns, and worthy of several threads on its own, but the key point is that if Clegg is gone, or signals he is going, to be be replaced by a left-leaning figure, Labour is sunk; and (3) whether the Ukip surge will dissipate, as it should, and if so how - by voters returning home or staying at home. If the former, its good news for the Conservatives, if the latter, bad news.
Hold up, wasn't the rent control policy so brilliant and going to boost Lab's vote share?
Yeah well it worried me, as did magic reductions of gas bills, and warning building companies about "hoarding land". It's the 70's again. One step from exchange controls and prices and incomes policies. I suspect we are at the point that just about most of the electorate don't remember the 70's. I do. It was crap.
Bollocks. The 70s was a completely different paradigm. Union power, no globalisation as we know it, no IT revolution. However, I do wonder if the 2015 election will still be a good one to lose. This debt driven recovery can only eventually take us back to 2008.
I refute that it was bollocks. It was crap ;-)
Though in fairness I take your points that times were different, though Ed's trend of wishing away high prices or whatever by decree is seriously worrying. It's utopian nonsense. You can intervene here and there granted, but to me it reveals someone who has no grasp that in the vast majority of cases ( not all granted ) the market is the consumer's friend. Globalisation brings cheap prices at Lidl as well as Pfizer sniffing around.
The 70's were magic. Monthly pay rises , cheap beer , The Sweeney , what more could anyone ask for
Less Bay City Rollers ;-)
Not at all they were also brilliant
I have to admire anyone who can defend Bye Bye Baby and Shang a Lang.
malc = Woody Pork = Les
Match a Nat to a Roller. That'll give the Diplomacy buffs a run for their money as a PB game.
I still have those God awful tarten sided flared shortish trousers seared on my mind. Some kids wore them in our school playground hundreds of miles from bloody Scotland. As I said the 70's were crap. Odd at least, and I don't want to go back Ed.
The fact that there were a lot of partial Labour refusers actually means that ICM's spiral of silence benefits Labour this time, as half of those who won't say are being allocated to their former party (Labour), though half are being disregarded altogether. It does mean that the pool for former Labour voters is large so potentially capable of returning.
Mr. Tyson, good to see you on. Still in Italy? You're not in Venice, by any chance? Just curious as to how the situation there is going, independence-wise.
Edited extra bit: although now I ask that it occurs to me I could've just asked Dr. Parma. Ahem.
Iain Martin descends the the level of sadsack last seen as Stuart Dickson. Really if Scots can't wish their neighbour's footabllers well, what hope for the financial sector.
Hold up, wasn't the rent control policy so brilliant and going to boost Lab's vote share?
Yeah well it worried me, as did magic reductions of gas bills, and warning building companies about "hoarding land". It's the 70's again. One step from exchange controls and prices and incomes policies. I suspect we are at the point that just about most of the electorate don't remember the 70's. I do. It was crap.
Bollocks. The 70s was a completely different paradigm. Union power, no globalisation as we know it, no IT revolution. However, I do wonder if the 2015 election will still be a good one to lose. This debt driven recovery can only eventually take us back to 2008.
I refute that it was bollocks. It was crap ;-)
Though in fairness I take your points that times were different, though Ed's trend of wishing away high prices or whatever by decree is seriously worrying. It's utopian nonsense. You can intervene here and there granted, but to me it reveals someone who has no grasp that in the vast majority of cases ( not all granted ) the market is the consumer's friend. Globalisation brings cheap prices at Lidl as well as Pfizer sniffing around.
The 70's were magic. Monthly pay rises , cheap beer , The Sweeney , what more could anyone ask for
Less Bay City Rollers ;-)
Not at all they were also brilliant
I have to admire anyone who can defend Bye Bye Baby and Shang a Lang.
I got a local election leaflet from Labour today through the post - the first for about 10 years. The strapline said 'Building a Better Bradford District.' The problem is I live in Kirklees.
Betting is a funny business. I know it's nothing revelatory, but whenever I call a position 'right' I always wish I'd put on more, and can't work out why I didn't. When I get it wrong, I berate myself for being such a tool for putting anything on in the first place.
Do any seasoned gamblers have any tips for controlling these emotions? I've been betting for almost 8 years, and it's only got slightly better. I'm extremely risk averse and my instincts are always to only risk small stakes and ensure I'm "covered" against all eventualities.
Result? I haven't made more than £500 profit in that time.
Hold up, wasn't the rent control policy so brilliant and going to boost Lab's vote share?
Yeah well it worried me, as did magic reductions of gas bills, and warning building companies about "hoarding land". It's the 70's again. One step from exchange controls and prices and incomes policies. I suspect we are at the point that just about most of the electorate don't remember the 70's. I do. It was crap.
Bollocks. The 70s was a completely different paradigm. Union power, no globalisation as we know it, no IT revolution. However, I do wonder if the 2015 election will still be a good one to lose. This debt driven recovery can only eventually take us back to 2008.
I refute that it was bollocks. It was crap ;-)
Though in fairness I take your points that times were different, though Ed's trend of wishing away high prices or whatever by decree is seriously worrying. It's utopian nonsense. You can intervene here and there granted, but to me it reveals someone who has no grasp that in the vast majority of cases ( not all granted ) the market is the consumer's friend. Globalisation brings cheap prices at Lidl as well as Pfizer sniffing around.
The 70's were magic. Monthly pay rises , cheap beer , The Sweeney , what more could anyone ask for
Less Bay City Rollers ;-)
Not at all they were also brilliant
I have to admire anyone who can defend Bye Bye Baby and Shang a Lang.
malc = Woody Pork = Les
Match a Nat to a Roller. That'll give the Diplomacy buffs a run for their money as a PB game.
I still have those God awful tarten sided flared shortish trousers seared on my mind. Some kids wore them in our school playground hundreds of miles from bloody Scotland. As I said the 70's were crap. Odd at least, and I don't want to go back Ed.
I thought Wales hadn't left the 70s ?
Prestayn hasn't gone away you know. :-)
Well granted the rugby's generally improved over the past few years. If not quite Gareth, JPR, Gerald, JJ et al far far better than the 80's and 90's. Can't speak for Prestatyn but my neck of the woods ( Cardiff ) is very different these days. Home Counties it ain't and never will be but neither is it monolithic mining, Methodism, and choirs!
The legacy of "large employer mentality" handed down via steel and coal is an awful burden in my view and may never disappear but it is slowly modifying.
Hold up, wasn't the rent control policy so brilliant and going to boost Lab's vote share?
Yeah well it woost of the electorate don't remember the 70's. I do. It was crap.
Bollocks. The 70s was a completely different paradigm. Union power, no globalisation as we tion will still be a good one to lose. This debt driven recovery can only eventually take us back to 2008.
I refute that it was bollocks. It was crap ;-) n nonsense. You can intervene here and there granted, but to me it reveals someone who has no grasp that in the vast majority of cases ( not all granted ) the market is the consumer's friend. Globalisation brings cheap prices at Lidl as well as Pfizer sniffing around.
The 70's were magic. Monthly pay rises , cheap beer , The Sweeney , what more could anyone ask for
Less Bay City Rollers ;-)
Not at all they were also brilliant
I have to admire anyone who can defend Bye Bye Baby and Shang a Lang.
malc = Woody Pork = Les
Match a Nat to a Roller. That'll give the Diplomacy buffs a run for their money as a PB game.
I still have those God awful tarten sided flared shortish trousers seared on my mind. Some kids wore them in our school playground hundreds of miles from bloody Scotland. As I said the 70's were crap. Odd at least, and I don't want to go back Ed.
I thought Wales hadn't left the 70s ?
Prestayn hasn't gone away you know. :-)
Well granted the rugby's generally improved over the past few years. If not quite Gareth, JPR, Gerald, JJ et al far far better than the 80's and 90's. Can't speak for Prestatyn but my neck of the woods ( Cardiff ) is very different these days. Home Counties it ain't and never will be but neither is it monolithic mining, Methodism, and choirs!
The legacy of "large employer mentality" handed down via steel and coal is an awful burden in my view and may never disappear but it is slowly modifying.
Mr Owl look on the bright side my compatriots still can't leave the eighteenth century !
However since my daughter studdied in the principality I do rather like the place if not the rugby team ;-)
DavidL - Ashcroft has just 1 in 8 saying the economic recovery benefits them. That's not Osborne doing anything big times. These two polls show no real upswing to the Tories, just a collapse in the Labour vote to UKIP.
Yes, it is worth keeping this in mind. Tories need to start clocking 36%+ before "we" can be confident they are back on track to top the election.
I can't see that happening until conference season in the autumn, personally. The mistake Cameron/Osborne should not make is to underestimate Ed Miliband over the next 12 months.
Yes, Ed is crap. But he can still pull rabbits out of hats and set the agenda. The Conservatives must be neither lazy or complacent: set the agenda themselves, so Labour has to respond.
It's early. I don't think anyone should be getting too excited.
I like the analysis by @SeanT about the Scots not wanting to cut loose from a major economic powerhouse, which makes sense.
We will never know but it would be exquisite if any part of the reason for this was the woeful PEB which quite frankly needed the smacking it might now have received.
Yep. That's right: Osborne highest, both Tories in positive territory, and Miliband below Clegg (top idea, that Labour PPB).
It'd be fascinating to see what's happened to the LD-Labour switchers. The assumption has to be that they're mostly still on-side, if leaking slightly; it's the previous core vote that's leaving. If so, that'd put Labour down in the low- to mid-twenties without the Red Liberals - as bad a score as during Brown's dog days.
I think that is the key. It has taken about 15 months but the message has got through at last. Osborne has delivered. Big time.
And Labour have nothing useful to say.
Osborne has delivered..........
Another debt fuelled housing/construction boom, and explicitly covered it with taxpayer guarantees. Wey hey hey.
Three questions:
1. What percentage of the the GDP growth rate over the past year is accounted for by household investments in residential property?
2. What is the growth in total net lending by the banks secured on dwellings over the last year?
3. What is the total amount of lending on dwellings secured by government guarantee under Help-to-Buy schemes and what is its proportion to total net lending on dwellings?
Once you have answered these three questions, I suggest your reconsider your claims that the housing/construction boom is "debt fuelled" and "explicitly covered by taxpayer guarantees".
Let me know if you are having difficulties with the numbers.
And all those worrying that this means Scotland will vote YES should get a bit cleverer.
The reason the Tories are doing better is, principally, because the economy is improving. Ergo it is also improving in Scotland, as part of the UK.
Leaving an economically broken UK is more appealing than leaving an apparently renascent, prospering UK. i.e. For all those Scottish Labourites appalled at the idea of 5 more years of Cameron, there will be Scottish floaters thinking: Hang on, the UK is not doing so bad, do I want to risk all this for... some weird kind of semi-freedom?
So it could easily balance out, especially as Scots will feel insulated from the *worst* of English Toryism by devolution.
OTOH maybe it will mean Scotland votes YES, which means Labour face the prospect of 1. losing their heartland and then 2. losing the GE to a Tory government which will finally fix the electoral system meaning that Labour will next return to power in 2087.
Sean, this is a really high risk time for the Better Together campaign. Remember, tories + Lib Dems roughly equals SNP. Everything turns on how the Labour vote splits. Scottish Labour look at that weird north London geek that Labour have chosen who is obsessed with issues with minimal resonance in Scotland and wonder if they can do better on their own. As he is now behind in the polls we are facing a PM with 16% support in Scotland.
So Labour people think, maybe we would be better off without these southern intellectual prats and would have a real chance of control in an independent Scotland.
If these polls still leave "no" behind it is really all over. But it isn't yet.
But you've got to be really poor and stupid to want to take all that enormous risk to separate from a country which has the fastest growing economy in the G8, low inflation, fast falling unemployment, a strengthening currency, etc etc
This should not be a hard sell for BT. If English Labourites are wavering, then so will SLABbers.
It will be amusing, however, watching Darling and Brown have to sell the UK on the back of Tory economic competence.
I remember people (not necessarily Mr T, to be fair) earnestly assuring us that Mr Salmond had screwed up by timing indyref campaigning during an economic downturn - the Scots would be less likely to leave Nanny when it was beltin' down buckets outside economically, like a wet November Sunday in Crieff in the 1960s.
Now I'm being assured the complete opposite ...
Of course, different people may be affected. Which makes me wonder, how much of this trickle down is the average Glaswegian old style Labou voter getting? And how enthused will s/he be by the great news about house prices in Camden and Tooting? Yet that is a key battleground.
You've got to laugh. -12 since the last Euro poll and the Tories in the lead on ICM. Well, that's a gap between them and YouGov nearly in double digits (ICM Con +2, YG Lab +7) which is almost as silly as some of the gaps between pollsters before the last GE (who were the Canadian outfit so out from everyone else?).
So yes, awful polls for Labour but we were always going to get one or two. Be interesting to see if this is exciting outliers or a new trend.
It's not necessarily the case that one has to be an outlier.
If there's a MoE of 3% on one party's share, then it follows that there's a range of 6% they could fall in within the MoE. That applies to all the parties (well, less so for the small ones but as we're talking Con/Lab here, it applies), and they're related variables so it's likely that when one is high on statistical fluctuation, the other will be low and vice versa.
For example, if the 'true' position is Lab 35 Con 31, MoE gives Lab in 32-38 and Con 28-34, with ranges for the lead, within the MoE from Con +2 to Lab +10.
The effective range for the lead is four times the Margin of Error.
Comments
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/jun/11/ukip-support-falls-main-parties-weak
These were the results, only 14% got the right result
http://poll.pollcode.com/6c1je_result?v
Dear Carlotta,
The nationalists have finally published details of who is funding their campaign to break up the UK, and now we know what we are up against.
One family has donated around 80% of Yes Scotland's total income since their campaign was launched back in 2012. That family has donated around £4.5 million in total to the SNP’s campaign for Scottish separation.
One positive we can take from the disclosure by the nationalists is that it shows there is only one campaign with broad support amongst the people of Scotland - and it's us. Whilst Yes Scotland relies on millionaires to fund their campaign, the campaign to keep Scotland in the UK is funded by thousands of small donations from ordinary Scots.
Despite being the financial underdogs, we are winning this campaign. A new poll published yesterday showed strong support for our campaign for Scotland to remain a proud part of the UK. 61% of Scots back staying in the UK, compared to just 39% supporting separation. It's thanks to your support that we speak for the majority of the Scottish people.
However, we need your support more than ever as we enter the final months of the campaign. The only way we can get our strong positive message across, and to highlight the risks to jobs that separation would pose, is by raising more money. The nationalists can rely on the support of one millionaire family. We don't have that, but we do have you.
Rogue poll, Mr. Fett. What other explanation could there be? As Mr. Eagles said up-thread no such drop has been seen before.
That said, the trend doesn't seem good for Labour. A year out from a GE and level pegging with the main party of government and a leader whose personal ratings are abysmal doesn't seem like a position from which to win. Still there is a long way to go yet and Cameron should not be feeling confident.
See, for example, Labour's polling before the last Holyrood election.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFBKVmJGYkhwYTRFeGpVZlg2bTRIZUE#gid=0
Big thanks to Ed, Labour, Lord Ashcroft and ICM for providing me with a load of material to work with.
Though in fairness I take your points that times were different, though Ed's trend of wishing away high prices or whatever by decree is seriously worrying. It's utopian nonsense. You can intervene here and there granted, but to me it reveals someone who has no grasp that in the vast majority of cases ( not all granted ) the market is the consumer's friend. Globalisation brings cheap prices at Lidl as well as Pfizer sniffing around.
Twitter
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 30s
Lab response to its Incredible Shrinking poll lead will prob be: few Tory switchers/it's a blip/nuffink to do with EdM honest/er, that's it.
It's a bit odd though - it's not as if anything has really happened in the last week to cause Labour to suddenly tank in the polls. Unless it is just a consequence of large numbers of people being confronted with some politics (campaigns, leaflets, broadcasts etc.) and suddenly re-thinking their position. Doesn't seem very plausible, but I'm not sure what else it could be.
1. Just 1 in 8 say they're benefitting from economic recovery on Ashcroft
2. A -12 shows either a cataclysmic political disaster has just happened or the poll is wrong or the poll before was wrong. Haven't seen a cataclysm, last poll was in line, so this must be an outlier.
3. Which begs the question is the -6 on their GE poll of the same methodology?
4. Its undeniable that UKIP are starting to attract Labour voters as well as Tories and none of the abovers. I'm not sure they'll stay away - do working class people know what UKIP policies are on issues other than the EU or immigration - but for all of the abuse PB Tories and others throw at Farage it shows that the man understands how to appeal to people outside his normal catchment.
5. What's the marginals position? Last we heard UNS was massively deflating Labour's actual position in the seats needed for victory.
Politics, you've got to love it no matter what side of the fence you sit on - never a dull moment!
Farage has been taking every opportunity to say they are winning over Labour voters. It seems the Labour loss of 6% is mainly moving to UKIP up 4%. Is UKIP's targetting of Labour voters beginning to work?
Ed Milliband can you hear me? Ed Milliband, I have a message for you in the middle of the election campaign. I have a message for you: We have knocked Labour out of the game. Ed Milliband, as they say in your language in the chattering classes around dinner tables in Primrose Hill : Your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!
(attrib Norway)
So Labour people think, maybe we would be better off without these southern intellectual prats and would have a real chance of control in an independent Scotland.
If these polls still leave "no" behind it is really all over. But it isn't yet.
And Labour have nothing useful to say.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
Con : No - Osborne
Lab : No - Ed
LD : No - EU cheese eating surrender monkeys
Kippers : No - Fruitcake, loonies and Cameron obsessives
Greens : No - Neil
BNP- don't like Alex Salmond
Harmony Party - don't use hair spray
We demand a referendum - No -Nikki Sinclair, MikeK's wet dream
AIFE - maybe - outkipper the kippers for a laugh
No2EU - maybe - sufficiently anti but offensive to Cameron and Miliband
English Democrats - maybe but hmmmm
Spoil my vote - maybe but need a strapline.
Overall not terribly attractive, I'm probably most on the Bob Crowe tribute act just because I've never voted that far left before and they haven't a hope in hell. What's your view down south ?
The thing is Ed & Co actually believe that the country wants the lefty crap they spout.
Promise to re-nationalise British Rail?
Anyone spot the problem?
Pork = Les
Another debt fuelled housing/construction boom, and explicitly covered it with taxpayer guarantees. Wey hey hey.
This does suggest the Ashcroft poll wasn't a rogue.
Yeah - but this time the economics makes sense. The greens won't be in power in Britain for say 80 years. Enjoy the ride.
I still have those God awful tartan sided flared shortish trousers seared on my mind. Some kids wore them in our school playground hundreds of miles from bloody Scotland. As I said the 70's were crap. Odd at least, and I don't want to go back Ed.
Whilst I am pleased to see these polls, I expect any Conservative lead will be short-lived as (1) Labour reasserts its role as the main depositary of anti-government votes after the Euro elections and (2) Ukip are pegged back as the general election hoves into view and the electorate are confronted with the reality that Ukip have not the people, the experience, the capacity or the policies to govern. The long-term trend will continue though, and Labour's inadequacies will, as long predicted, ultimately result in the Tories enjoying a sustained lead in the popular vote that should, events aside, subsist until polling day.
The fundamentals remain unchanged by these polls:
1. The Tories face an enormous challenge if they are to win a majority. There is nothing yet to indicate that the Tories can improve upon their 2010 share of the vote, despite a likely collapse in the Lib Dem vote. Unless they do, it is likely their lead over Labour will narrow somewhat, even if not by much. Even if they can somehow find an extra gear and win a larger share of the vote, when you analyse the seats they must win to win an overall majority, it looks an almost-impossible task
2. Labour are in deep trouble. Whilst Miliband's inadequacies as a leader and potential prime minister are well documented, Labour's woes are not solely, or even largely, his fault. Exhausted after 13 years in power, weakened by the departure of almost every minister of note from the Blair/Brown era, without a credible economic strategy or policy platform and undecided as to their identity (beyond vague assertions of being the party of social justice and fairness), in any other circumstance we would not be at all surprised that they are performing poorly in the polls. It is only the peculiar dynamics of the coalition, which has created a homeless rump of vaguely left-leaning voters, and the Conservatives low starting point that have given Labour any kind of chance, but all it has really done is papered over the cracks and given Labour the perception of progress, when in fact they have stood still. It is scant consolation that they are in better shape than the Tories were in 2002
Part 2 to follow
...3. There are three "known unknowns" that will have a decisive influence on the general election: (1) the outcome of the Scottish referendum; yes or no, the impact on UK politics is unpredictable but potentially extraordinary (it is quite possible Cameron will be removed if Scotland votes yes, particularly if Ukip still has momentum); (2) how the Liberal Democrats position themselves at the next election; perhaps the most important of the known unknowns, and worthy of several threads on its own, but the key point is that if Clegg is gone, or signals he is going, to be be replaced by a left-leaning figure, Labour is sunk; and (3) whether the Ukip surge will dissipate, as it should, and if so how - by voters returning home or staying at home. If the former, its good news for the Conservatives, if the latter, bad news.
Prestayn hasn't gone away you know. :-)
ROFL
LMAO
ROFLMAO
Edited extra bit: although now I ask that it occurs to me I could've just asked Dr. Parma. Ahem.
RT @CllrIainRoberts: Lab's 31% is lowest for Opposition a yr b4 a GeneralElection in any ICM/Guardian poll going back to 1986.
Ouch - Luckily for Miliband, he has his intellectual self-confidence to fall back on..!
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100271168/for-the-sake-of-the-union-england-must-not-win-the-world-cup-in-brazil/
And then there's rugby ...........
Domaine Francois Hollande sans la belle Nana.
Cuvee Edouard est Merde
Three from my cellar Mr P.
Do any seasoned gamblers have any tips for controlling these emotions? I've been betting for almost 8 years, and it's only got slightly better. I'm extremely risk averse and my instincts are always to only risk small stakes and ensure I'm "covered" against all eventualities.
Result? I haven't made more than £500 profit in that time.
The legacy of "large employer mentality" handed down via steel and coal is an awful burden in my view and may never disappear but it is slowly modifying.
However since my daughter studdied in the principality I do rather like the place if not the rugby team ;-)
I can't see that happening until conference season in the autumn, personally. The mistake Cameron/Osborne should not make is to underestimate Ed Miliband over the next 12 months.
Yes, Ed is crap. But he can still pull rabbits out of hats and set the agenda. The Conservatives must be neither lazy or complacent: set the agenda themselves, so Labour has to respond.
I like the analysis by @SeanT about the Scots not wanting to cut loose from a major economic powerhouse, which makes sense.
We will never know but it would be exquisite if any part of the reason for this was the woeful PEB which quite frankly needed the smacking it might now have received.
1. What percentage of the the GDP growth rate over the past year is accounted for by household investments in residential property?
2. What is the growth in total net lending by the banks secured on dwellings over the last year?
3. What is the total amount of lending on dwellings secured by government guarantee under Help-to-Buy schemes and what is its proportion to total net lending on dwellings?
Once you have answered these three questions, I suggest your reconsider your claims that the housing/construction boom is "debt fuelled" and "explicitly covered by taxpayer guarantees".
Let me know if you are having difficulties with the numbers.
Now I'm being assured the complete opposite ...
Of course, different people may be affected. Which makes me wonder, how much of this trickle down is the average Glaswegian old style Labou voter getting? And how enthused will s/he be by the great news about house prices in Camden and Tooting? Yet that is a key battleground.
If there's a MoE of 3% on one party's share, then it follows that there's a range of 6% they could fall in within the MoE. That applies to all the parties (well, less so for the small ones but as we're talking Con/Lab here, it applies), and they're related variables so it's likely that when one is high on statistical fluctuation, the other will be low and vice versa.
For example, if the 'true' position is Lab 35 Con 31, MoE gives Lab in 32-38 and Con 28-34, with ranges for the lead, within the MoE from Con +2 to Lab +10.
The effective range for the lead is four times the Margin of Error.
http://image.shutterstock.com/display_pic_with_logo/1034821/116313637/stock-vector-cartoon-squirrel-cheering-and-jumping-while-holding-blank-paper-116313637.jpg