politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Great polling numbers for those who got on the PB 250/1 Sunak
Options
Comments
-
Hancock confirms weak evidence on face masks but strong evidence on social distancing and endorsed by his advisor0
-
And Iberia, and I think they have a few subsidiaries.TGOHF666 said:
Do ROI have a furlough scheme for Aer Lingus staff ? If not then no surprise.RobD said:
It is BA staff or IAG staff?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - not furloughedSandyRentool said:
Not even furloughed? They clearly see a long term change in our behaviour.Big_G_NorthWales said:British Airways make 12,000 staff redundant
0 -
Wealth will decide it wants to be in isolated properties in lovely Devon. Self isolating in remote luxury is the new hip way to enjoy life. The market here will stay buoyant.eadric said:
I wonder if this heralds the end of the era of great and lordly megacities, certainly in the West, for a whilekyf_100 said:
Property prices will go down. The question is - by how much?AlastairMeeks said:If London prime property owners want a shiver of terror, let me assist:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/manhattan-homebuyers-rewriting-the-rules-on-deals-in-virus-era?sref=vuYGislZ
I suppose that is linked to how quickly the economy recovers. My guess is not very quickly, and not very much. So a prolonged, drawn out fall in prices akin to the mid 90s. And quite a lot of people trapped by negative equity. Then there's the question of rising interest rates on top of that.
One other factor that didn't exist in previous crashes is AirBnB properties.
If global travel is kaput for the next year or more, we could see a lot of distressed sales. The rental market will also be flooded.
All the signs are pointing towards an almighty downturn...
In the last two decades New York, Shanghai, Singapore and London, and to a lesser extent Paris, Milan, Berlin, etc have all benefited - as cities - from conglomeration, and the clustering of elite wealth.
Living in a superskinny sky scraper in Manhattan, or a Docklands loft in London, now looks much less appealing. Coronavirus might return, year after year, entailing lockdown after lockdown
Even before corona, New York City was beginning to slowly depopulate (unnoticed by many) so the signs of decline started before the Plague. Now it must accelerate.
Not great for those of us sitting on London prime property, but we will survive. In the long run it will be good for kids, who will eventually return to the cities, and thus they will rise again.
The cycle spins.0 -
Priti Patel but not BAME? Esther McVey.kinabalu said:
Ethnic diversity at the top of government is great to see and I don't think in her case it is tokenism. I think she was promoted due to her hero worship of "Boris" and as a dog whistle to the reactionary right of the party.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kinabalu, it's tokenism for someone unfit to be in the Cabinet.
I do not like her one bit but I'm looking on the bright side and seeking the positives from the situation. If we have to have Priti Patel as Home Secretary then I'm delighted that she is BAME. I would rather not have her at all - obviously - but the thought of her both being Home Secretary and not being BAME hardly bears thinking about.2 -
British Airways acknowledge reality early, probably putting the final nail into Virgin's coffin too.0
-
Godspeed to the boffins at Oxford.eadric said:
Given that Airbus is in danger of actually going under it is safe to assume travel will suffer for many years, maybe a decade. Unless there is an effective vaccine, of course.RobD said:
The second one seems optional at the moment.MikeL said:BA redundancies imply the 3rd runway at Heathrow may no longer be needed?
0 -
I think we all could second that.RobD said:
Godspeed to the boffins at Oxford.eadric said:
Given that Airbus is in danger of actually going under it is safe to assume travel will suffer for many years, maybe a decade. Unless there is an effective vaccine, of course.RobD said:
The second one seems optional at the moment.MikeL said:BA redundancies imply the 3rd runway at Heathrow may no longer be needed?
Well, except for the loons who want them to fail because of our imperial past.0 -
As I understand it A320 production has been reduced to 40 aircraft per month and Airbus in Broughton have wingsets stored in the former A380 factory and across the facility. A decision has been made to furlough the staff, some to the end of June, so the wingsets can be used from stock and when production recommences in July the production will be put into sync with the overall aircraft manufacturingSandyRentool said:Pity they can't use A320s for Tesco home deliveries...
Also Airbus is uplifting the the 80% to approx 87.5%0 -
“ The decline will START in London, New York, Paris...”eadric said:
No, it won't. Global wealth in toto will take a massive hit. You're not thinking it through.MarqueeMark said:
Wealth will decide it wants to be in isolated properties in lovely Devon. Self isolating in remote luxury is the new hip way to enjoy life. The market here will stay buoyant.eadric said:
I wonder if this heralds the end of the era of great and lordly megacities, certainly in the West, for a whilekyf_100 said:
Property prices will go down. The question is - by how much?AlastairMeeks said:If London prime property owners want a shiver of terror, let me assist:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/manhattan-homebuyers-rewriting-the-rules-on-deals-in-virus-era?sref=vuYGislZ
I suppose that is linked to how quickly the economy recovers. My guess is not very quickly, and not very much. So a prolonged, drawn out fall in prices akin to the mid 90s. And quite a lot of people trapped by negative equity. Then there's the question of rising interest rates on top of that.
One other factor that didn't exist in previous crashes is AirBnB properties.
If global travel is kaput for the next year or more, we could see a lot of distressed sales. The rental market will also be flooded.
All the signs are pointing towards an almighty downturn...
Not great for those of us sitting on London prime property, but we will survive. In the long run it will be good for kids, who will eventually return to the cities, and thus they will rise again.
The cycle spins.
The decline will START in London, New York, Paris but it will spread from there. Indeed next on the list will probably be luxury bolt-holes, as the number of rich people declines in absolute terms.
Lower status country properties will be the most resistant, maybe.
That’s Del Boy fucked!0 -
Bad time to be employed by flight meta-search.
*Checks what my company does*
Oh... bugger.0 -
It doesn't matter who comes up with the vaccine.rottenborough said:
I think we all could second that.RobD said:
Godspeed to the boffins at Oxford.eadric said:
Given that Airbus is in danger of actually going under it is safe to assume travel will suffer for many years, maybe a decade. Unless there is an effective vaccine, of course.RobD said:
The second one seems optional at the moment.MikeL said:BA redundancies imply the 3rd runway at Heathrow may no longer be needed?
Well, except for the loons who want them to fail because of our imperial past.
0 -
-
In a statement, IAG said: “In light of the impact of Covid-19 on current operations and the expectation that the recovery of passenger demand to 2019 levels will take several years, British Airways is formally notifying its trade unions about a proposed restructuring and redundancy programme.
“The proposals remain subject to consultation but it is likely that they will affect most of British Airways’ employees and may result in the redundancy of up to 12,000 of them.
“As previously announced, British Airways has availed itself of the UK’s Covid-19 job retention scheme and furloughed 22,626 employees in April.”
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/british-airways-workers-redundant-a4426456.html0 -
An easier requirement certainly.rottenborough said:0 -
-
-
You might both be right. Devon will doubtless remain desirable, and prices may remain high in such places, but this may be due to a very thin market as existing homeowners refuse to accept that the value of their house has fallen. So they stay put.eadric said:
No, it won't. Global wealth in toto will take a massive hit. You're not thinking it through.MarqueeMark said:
Wealth will decide it wants to be in isolated properties in lovely Devon. Self isolating in remote luxury is the new hip way to enjoy life. The market here will stay buoyant.eadric said:
I wonder if this heralds the end of the era of great and lordly megacities, certainly in the West, for a whilekyf_100 said:
Property prices will go down. The question is - by how much?AlastairMeeks said:If London prime property owners want a shiver of terror, let me assist:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/manhattan-homebuyers-rewriting-the-rules-on-deals-in-virus-era?sref=vuYGislZ
I suppose that is linked to how quickly the economy recovers. My guess is not very quickly, and not very much. So a prolonged, drawn out fall in prices akin to the mid 90s. And quite a lot of people trapped by negative equity. Then there's the question of rising interest rates on top of that.
One other factor that didn't exist in previous crashes is AirBnB properties.
If global travel is kaput for the next year or more, we could see a lot of distressed sales. The rental market will also be flooded.
All the signs are pointing towards an almighty downturn...
Not great for those of us sitting on London prime property, but we will survive. In the long run it will be good for kids, who will eventually return to the cities, and thus they will rise again.
The cycle spins.
The decline will START in London, New York, Paris but it will spread from there. Indeed next on the list will probably be luxury bolt-holes, as the number of rich people declines in absolute terms.
Lower status country properties will be the most resistant, maybe.
Accordingly, I expect house sale volume to be hugely down. With the knock-on effects down the market the consequences for housebuilders may be dire. This is why I`ve sold some housebuilder shares in recent days. They may be keen to get building again asap, but heaven knows who they think they are going to sell to.1 -
You can buy flour online. You can't get yeast for love nor money.rottenborough said:0 -
To be fair to Hancock he conducted that well0
-
It's why sourdough starters have become so popular.CarlottaVance said:
You can buy flour online. You can't get yeast for love nor money.rottenborough said:0 -
Yes, arguably the original 5th test could never be met as it said "risk of a 2nd peak".
Surely there always had to be a risk of a 2nd peak, even if it was a small one.0 -
IAG caught for 1.3 billion euros for mishedging fuel0
-
As this is PedanticBetting.com I should point out that a second peak is almost guaranteed – even if the peak is absolutely tiny and utterly insignificant (inshallah!) it would nevertheless be a statistical peak!RobD said:
An easier requirement certainly.rottenborough said:0 -
I'm well stocked with yeast and strong bread flour appears to be coming back. I got my requested two packs in my latest Tesso order.CarlottaVance said:
You can buy flour online. You can't get yeast for love nor money.rottenborough said:0 -
That's been my hunch for a while now, based upon nothing other than eliminating all the wishful thinking that it's so tempting to believe will save our bacon. It will be like having a new flu to deal with, and every now and then it will really blow up.eadric said:Chinese boffins: the virus will come back year after year.
And, let's face it, they should know, as they created it
Joke!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/virus-is-here-to-stay-and-likely-seasonal-say-china-scientists0 -
BigG is an unbiased arbitrator of whether Hancock did well or not so that's fine by me then.Big_G_NorthWales said:To be fair to Hancock he conducted that well
1 -
The demand for air travel seems likely to be depressed for a very long time. A great many airlines will be surplus to requirement going forward.Pulpstar said:British Airways acknowledge reality early, probably putting the final nail into Virgin's coffin too.
0 -
We ordered a big 16 kg bag of self-raising on Sunday - turn-around time of "on or before 11th May"!CarlottaVance said:
You can buy flour online. You can't get yeast for love nor money.rottenborough said:0 -
"New York, Paris, PECKHAM"!isam said:
“ The decline will START in London, New York, Paris...”eadric said:
No, it won't. Global wealth in toto will take a massive hit. You're not thinking it through.MarqueeMark said:
Wealth will decide it wants to be in isolated properties in lovely Devon. Self isolating in remote luxury is the new hip way to enjoy life. The market here will stay buoyant.eadric said:
I wonder if this heralds the end of the era of great and lordly megacities, certainly in the West, for a whilekyf_100 said:
Property prices will go down. The question is - by how much?AlastairMeeks said:If London prime property owners want a shiver of terror, let me assist:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/manhattan-homebuyers-rewriting-the-rules-on-deals-in-virus-era?sref=vuYGislZ
I suppose that is linked to how quickly the economy recovers. My guess is not very quickly, and not very much. So a prolonged, drawn out fall in prices akin to the mid 90s. And quite a lot of people trapped by negative equity. Then there's the question of rising interest rates on top of that.
One other factor that didn't exist in previous crashes is AirBnB properties.
If global travel is kaput for the next year or more, we could see a lot of distressed sales. The rental market will also be flooded.
All the signs are pointing towards an almighty downturn...
Not great for those of us sitting on London prime property, but we will survive. In the long run it will be good for kids, who will eventually return to the cities, and thus they will rise again.
The cycle spins.
The decline will START in London, New York, Paris but it will spread from there. Indeed next on the list will probably be luxury bolt-holes, as the number of rich people declines in absolute terms.
Lower status country properties will be the most resistant, maybe.
That’s Del Boy fucked!
0 -
IAG also own Iberia and Aer Lingus. Not sure if their staff will be affected.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The strap line on Sky is BA but I expect it is IAGRobD said:
It is BA staff or IAG staff?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - not furloughedSandyRentool said:
Not even furloughed? They clearly see a long term change in our behaviour.Big_G_NorthWales said:British Airways make 12,000 staff redundant
0 -
BigG is an unbiased arbiter of Hancocks performance so that's fine by me he must have done wellBig_G_NorthWales said:To be fair to Hancock he conducted that well
1 -
Matt rules OKCarlottaVance said:0 -
On top of that, at the moment suburban Gardens are looking very attractive to a lot of apartment dwellers.kyf_100 said:
Property prices will go down. The question is - by how much?AlastairMeeks said:If London prime property owners want a shiver of terror, let me assist:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/manhattan-homebuyers-rewriting-the-rules-on-deals-in-virus-era?sref=vuYGislZ
I suppose that is linked to how quickly the economy recovers. My guess is not very quickly, and not very much. So a prolonged, drawn out fall in prices akin to the mid 90s. And quite a lot of people trapped by negative equity. Then there's the question of rising interest rates on top of that.
One other factor that didn't exist in previous crashes is AirBnB properties.
If global travel is kaput for the next year or more, we could see a lot of distressed sales. The rental market will also be flooded.
All the signs are pointing towards an almighty downturn...0 -
And some people* accuse me of making bad puns...Pulpstar said:
Our customers make bottles. The anecdotes haven't been too dispiriting thus far.Alistair said:Bad time to be employed by flight meta-search.
*Checks what my company does*
Oh... bugger.
*not many, obviously, only those with no taste or subtlety.0 -
"Q: There is confusion about what the social distancing measures are. Can you clarify them?"
0 -
Glad to have your endorsement BJO - all the bestbigjohnowls said:
BigG is an unbiased arbitrator of whether Hancock did well or not so that's fine by me then.Big_G_NorthWales said:To be fair to Hancock he conducted that well
0 -
I’m reminded of the exasperated judge who discharged a jury for being terminally thick after they asked him what a ‘reasonable doubt‘ was.FrancisUrquhart said:"Q: There is confusion about what the social distancing measures are. Can you clarify them?"
Head..desk..thud.....0 -
So a second peak that kills another 30k is just fine then.rottenborough said:
I think I'll be staying home.
(Word 'at' omitted in order to stick with the governmental style)0 -
I see the government have moved the goalposts again on who can get a test. I have to say, you might as well now just say anybody who wants one, can queue up...as the rules aren't far off that.
Just have it that front line staff can book appointments / have a fast lane and the plebs have to queue.0 -
One of our neighbours works for a company that makes beer cans. I'm sure you can fill in the rest.Pulpstar said:
Our customers make bottles. The anecdotes haven't been too dispiriting thus far.Alistair said:Bad time to be employed by flight meta-search.
*Checks what my company does*
Oh... bugger.0 -
Most of my good friends have kids who are under 11...they all know the deal. I would love to say that's because they all super smart for their age, but (whispers it) there are a couple who definitely aren't the sharpest tools in the box....we all know them, the ones that will eat anything they find on the ground and try to climb the tree with the thinnest branches.ydoethur said:
I’m reminded of the exasperated judge who discharged a jury for being terminally thick after they asked him what a ‘reasonable doubt‘ was.FrancisUrquhart said:"Q: There is confusion about what the social distancing measures are. Can you clarify them?"
Head..desk..thud.....0 -
Naan and roti. SortedCarlottaVance said:
You can buy flour online. You can't get yeast for love nor money.rottenborough said:1 -
He unveiled the magic money tree. Wait til he has to prune it.0
-
Report from 2 days ago:ydoethur said:
I’m reminded of the exasperated judge who discharged a jury for being terminally thick after they asked him what a ‘reasonable doubt‘ was.FrancisUrquhart said:"Q: There is confusion about what the social distancing measures are. Can you clarify them?"
Head..desk..thud.....
"Judges told to stop using 'beyond reasonable doubt' as it confuses juries" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/26/judges-told-stop-using-beyond-reasonable-doubt-confuses-juries/0 -
Telegraph speculating on an IHT level of 80% this morning.EPG said:He unveiled the magic money tree. Wait til he has to prune it.
0 -
Atta (wheat flour) best for such items.SandyRentool said:
Naan and roti. SortedCarlottaVance said:
You can buy flour online. You can't get yeast for love nor money.rottenborough said:0 -
Sweden data watch!
April the 8th has become peakier. They added a death a mere 20 days later to take it to 111 deaths soaring away from the 109 and 108 deaths of the 15th and 16th.0 -
I'm confused. Why would an over 65 year old with symptoms leave their house to queue to get a test?FrancisUrquhart said:I see the government have moved the goalposts again on who can get a test. I have to say, you might as well now just say anybody who wants one, can queue up...as the rules aren't far off that.
Just have it that front line staff can book appointments / have a fast lane and the plebs have to queue.
Or are they saying they will be able to send someone around to the house?0 -
Government doing home testing kits now.rottenborough said:
I'm confused. Why would an over 65 year old with symptoms leave their house to queue to get a test?FrancisUrquhart said:I see the government have moved the goalposts again on who can get a test. I have to say, you might as well now just say anybody who wants one, can queue up...as the rules aren't far off that.
Just have it that front line staff can book appointments / have a fast lane and the plebs have to queue.
Or are they saying they will be able to send someone around to the house?0 -
They have not provided the necessary equipment , that's how , the dummies cannot manage a fraction of their own targets, try to imagine how much they are sending to Scotland.RobD said:0 -
I'm in an odd position I've rented all my life asnd see no reason to change, but have promised to help a relative prone to anxiety to buy somewhere to help their long-term sense of security. Do I now urge them to rush out at the first opportunity and find somewhere before the buyers come back, or tell them to wait (anxiously) for years because I think the market will drop? My sense, like yours, is that prices will decline (maybe not that much as the underlying shortage hasn't gone away), but it will probably take a while before people work out what to do.eadric said:As a guide to what might happen to property after Corona, here's what happened in the Great Depression in NYC
"According to Scherbina and Nicholas’ working paper, “Real Estate Prices during the Great Depression,” the prices for a typical Manhattan house increased 62% in a run up of the 1929 stock market crash and then lost 51% of that value by the end of 1933. By 1932 and 1937 the stock market showed signs of rebounding, but real estate did not, according to Scherbina. A house purchased in 1920 would have lost 51% of its value (in inflation-adjusted terms) by the end of 1939. Scherbina and Nicholas report that it wasn’t until 1960 that housing prices recovered."
Took THIRTY YEARS for prices to recover. Tho the 2nd World War probably didnt't help
https://bhinvestment.co.uk/how-much-did-real-estate-prices-fall-during-the-great-depression/
The bottom line if you're not buying for an investment is to go ahead and do it anyway, I guess.0 -
Conducting proper research on juries is verboten so instead we are lumbered with guesswork.Andy_JS said:
Report from 2 days ago:ydoethur said:
I’m reminded of the exasperated judge who discharged a jury for being terminally thick after they asked him what a ‘reasonable doubt‘ was.FrancisUrquhart said:"Q: There is confusion about what the social distancing measures are. Can you clarify them?"
Head..desk..thud.....
"Judges told to stop using 'beyond reasonable doubt' as it confuses juries" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/26/judges-told-stop-using-beyond-reasonable-doubt-confuses-juries/0 -
The final slide at todays briefing was a complete killer.
Deaths inc Care Homes line miles above other rivals in the shittest outcome in Europe league.
0 -
Genuine question: given how much of health policy is now devolved, to what extent (if any) is the provision of testing a reserved matter?malcolmg said:
They have not provided the necessary equipment , that's how , the dummies cannot manage a fraction of their own targets, try to imagine how much they are sending to Scotland.RobD said:
The questions about testing at UK Government briefings, when not directly answered by ministers, seem typically to be passed on to Public Health England officials. Their authority does not, presumably, extend elsewhere.0 -
Isnt it 40 pc at the moment ?rottenborough said:
Telegraph speculating on an IHT level of 80% this morning.EPG said:He unveiled the magic money tree. Wait til he has to prune it.
0 -
If only we had a Prime Minister who is an expert on allotments.Foxy said:
On top of that, at the moment suburban Gardens are looking very attractive to a lot of apartment dwellers.kyf_100 said:
Property prices will go down. The question is - by how much?AlastairMeeks said:If London prime property owners want a shiver of terror, let me assist:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/manhattan-homebuyers-rewriting-the-rules-on-deals-in-virus-era?sref=vuYGislZ
I suppose that is linked to how quickly the economy recovers. My guess is not very quickly, and not very much. So a prolonged, drawn out fall in prices akin to the mid 90s. And quite a lot of people trapped by negative equity. Then there's the question of rising interest rates on top of that.
One other factor that didn't exist in previous crashes is AirBnB properties.
If global travel is kaput for the next year or more, we could see a lot of distressed sales. The rental market will also be flooded.
All the signs are pointing towards an almighty downturn...0 -
-
Did you read the small print though? The way deaths are recorded is really not comparable... I quoted a bit of this downthread but repost here:bigjohnowls said:The final slide at todays briefing was a complete killer.
Deaths inc Care Homes line miles above other rivals in the shittest outcome in Europe league.
"Country data is aligned by stage of the outbreak. Day 0 equals the first day 50 cumulative deaths were reported. Different countries have different methods of counting Covid19 deaths which means it is difficult to compare statistics across countries. Some countries, such as France and the US, count deaths resulting directly from the virus only, whilst others, such as the UK and Italy, use a wider definition of deaths of those with the virus but who potentially died of other causes. In addition, some countries, such as France, include deaths from the virus in care homes whilst others, such as Italy, report hospital deaths only."0 -
Yes, so I found when I googled the details of this other case. It’s clear some right ‘tards sit on juries. I blame their teach...I mean, social failings.Andy_JS said:
Report from 2 days ago:ydoethur said:
I’m reminded of the exasperated judge who discharged a jury for being terminally thick after they asked him what a ‘reasonable doubt‘ was.FrancisUrquhart said:"Q: There is confusion about what the social distancing measures are. Can you clarify them?"
Head..desk..thud.....
"Judges told to stop using 'beyond reasonable doubt' as it confuses juries" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/26/judges-told-stop-using-beyond-reasonable-doubt-confuses-juries/
Turned out it was Vicky Price (who also made my favourite faux pas of the Great Crash when she said on radio ‘the only way Greece can repay its debts is by borrowing’).
They did ask some stunningly daft questions of the poor judge. I don’t wonder he was pissed off. Here’s the full list.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2013/feb/20/vicky-pryce-trial-10-questions
Question 5 is perhaps the best - ‘can we break the law or evidence, please?’1 -
Pre-teatime excitement involved taking the garden waste bins out. A monthly treat.
Never mind the dog walkers, the highlight of the outing was feeling rain on my face for the first time in weeks.
I have also made it through our broccoli stockpile. Still plenty of leeks and onions to digest. Three of the latter turned up today in what was styled as a 'salad box'. Next veg box arrives tomorrow. I'm anticipating more leeks.1 -
It is grim.bigjohnowls said:The final slide at todays briefing was a complete killer.
Deaths inc Care Homes line miles above other rivals in the shittest outcome in Europe league.
Are the numbers from France, Spain and Italy shown for comparison also representative of total mortality from the virus, or do they only count the hospitals as well? The two justifications originally given for not including care home deaths in the briefing were (i) that they were reported well in arrears (whereas the hospital numbers were collected daily, and (ii) the hospital only numbers were more closely comparable with methods of reporting used in other jurisdictions.0 -
For those interested, this is a good blog to follow for Coronavirus therapeutic developments: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/27/anti-il-6-for-coronavirus-patients-does-it-work-or-not
The report on Toczilumab from France sounds interesting, albeit not a classic RCT, but an open-label experiment so needs further work...0 -
On top of that, at the moment suburban Gardens are looking very attractive to a lot of apartment dwellers.kyf_100 said:
Property prices will go down. The question is - by how much?AlastairMeeks said:If London prime property owners want a shiver of terror, let me assist:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/manhattan-homebuyers-rewriting-the-rules-on-deals-in-virus-era?sref=vuYGislZ
I suppose that is linked to how quickly the economy recovers. My guess is not very quickly, and not very much. So a prolonged, drawn out fall in prices akin to the mid 90s. And quite a lot of people trapped by negative equity. Then there's the question of rising interest rates on top of that.
One other factor that didn't exist in previous crashes is AirBnB properties.
If global travel is kaput for the next year or more, we could see a lot of distressed sales. The rental market will also be flooded.
All the signs are pointing towards an almighty downturn...
From a chat with one of our anaesthetists earlier:ABZ said:@Foxy regarding what happens next, are your NHS colleagues getting a better idea of what treatment (e.g., level of oxygen / patients being prone) work better? It will be important for better managing a background level of Covid-19 cases...
Proning is normal, with patients being 18 hours in that position. They try to keep non-ventilated as long as possible.
Currently there are major problems with managing renal failure. It doesn't seem to be purely due to hypotension and hypovolemia, though that contributes. There seems to be a problem of renal microthrombi too, which may also be part of the VQ mismatch. Clotting seems quite key.
Running several different drug trials, but no real answers just yet.0 -
France shows all settings Italy only HospitalsBlack_Rook said:
It is grim.bigjohnowls said:The final slide at todays briefing was a complete killer.
Deaths inc Care Homes line miles above other rivals in the shittest outcome in Europe league.
Are the numbers from France, Spain and Italy shown for comparison also representative of total mortality from the virus, or do they only count the hospitals as well? The two justifications originally given for not including care home deaths in the briefing were (i) that they were reported well in arrears (whereas the hospital numbers were collected daily, and (ii) the hospital only numbers were more closely comparable with methods of reporting used in other jurisdictions.
Spain not sure0 -
Yes, but France only reports deaths directly attributable to Covid - so you really can't compare with the UK where, since it's a notifiable disease, it must be reported whenever it is on the death certificate.bigjohnowls said:
France shows all settings Italy only HospitalsBlack_Rook said:
It is grim.bigjohnowls said:The final slide at todays briefing was a complete killer.
Deaths inc Care Homes line miles above other rivals in the shittest outcome in Europe league.
Are the numbers from France, Spain and Italy shown for comparison also representative of total mortality from the virus, or do they only count the hospitals as well? The two justifications originally given for not including care home deaths in the briefing were (i) that they were reported well in arrears (whereas the hospital numbers were collected daily, and (ii) the hospital only numbers were more closely comparable with methods of reporting used in other jurisdictions.
Spain not sure
The key point, however, is that we will only really be able to make this comparison post hoc by looking at excess mortality, for which the data are not currently available.1 -
Leaks? You should fix that box!SandyRentool said:Pre-teatime excitement involved taking the garden waste bins out. A monthly treat.
Never mind the dog walkers, the highlight of the outing was feeling rain on my face for the first time in weeks.
I have also made it through our broccoli stockpile. Still plenty of leeks and onions to digest. Three of the latter turned up today in what was styled as a 'salad box'. Next veg box arrives tomorrow. I'm anticipating more leeks.0 -
As far as I know from what has been said on here about this by those who know far more than me about those countries, France is including Care Home deaths in their numbers, Italy is not and I am not clear about Spain. I don't know if any of them count deaths in the community outside of institutions.Black_Rook said:
It is grim.bigjohnowls said:The final slide at todays briefing was a complete killer.
Deaths inc Care Homes line miles above other rivals in the shittest outcome in Europe league.
Are the numbers from France, Spain and Italy shown for comparison also representative of total mortality from the virus, or do they only count the hospitals as well? The two justifications originally given for not including care home deaths in the briefing were (i) that they were reported well in arrears (whereas the hospital numbers were collected daily, and (ii) the hospital only numbers were more closely comparable with methods of reporting used in other jurisdictions.0 -
John Lewis expecting permanent store closures. They have 50 stores. Spread of 24 - 26 for number of closures?0
-
Ignore Brexit. Trump won by pretending to be a populist against the elitist Hillary Clinton. This pretence did not last very long as Trump pivoted to the swamp he'd claimed to want to drain, and as @HYUFD's polls tell us, neither the assault on Obamacare nor tax cuts for billionaires greatly impressed the working and lower middle class groups who backed him last time. So where does Trump go next?isam said:
I’ve barely thought about it, just seems that way to me. Maybe you’re rightAlistair said:FTPT
isam said:
It doesn't really matter. When a politician that someone has strong feelings against is succesful, the reason for that success is always a deficiency on the side of their defeated opponent/campaign.Alistair said:
What's the evidence that Trump voters are a unique coalition of left behind, economically anxious people as opposed to people who have voted Republican at every election for the last 20 years?isam said:
I would have thought you wouldAlistair said:
Really? Trump got mostly the same voters as Bush, McCain and Romney. He lost the popular vote and won only because Clinton was a uniquely unpopular candidate with a terrible campaign staff who set out to prove that the Obama campaign won 'wrong'.isam said:.
There are massive parallels between the reasons Brexit and Trump won,OllyT said:
The theme is that any British Trumptons were very very likely to be Brexiteers. Lots of people pretending they never had any time for him now he has become such an embarrassment but that was not what they were saying at the time he was elected. The UK Trump-rampers that come to mind are all UKIP types - who can forget all those photos of good old Nigel fawning over him. Remind me of any prominent remainers that were Trump fans - I'm sure there must be an odd one but I can't think of any..Malmesbury said:
I have noted a persistent theme - that all Brexiters must be Trump supporters. Despite polling that indicates virtually no-one in the UK has any time for him.Philip_Thompson said:
I've got no overlap.OllyT said:
A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.Nigel_Foremain said:
Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.Philip_Thompson said:
Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.kamski said:TGOHF666 said:
Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.eristdoof said:Slackbladder said:
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:Philip_Thompson said:
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.Nigelb said:
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...Nigelb said:
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.TOPPING said:
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.Philip_Thompson said:
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.CarlottaVance said:
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
Just a musing on that...
Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.
Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850.
That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.
"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"
The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.
Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.
Brexit had a quarter of a century campaign by the highest selling newspapers in the country covering every demographic.
I think the links are pretty tenuous.
Clinton, Corbyn, Remain...
I wasn't asking a rhetorical question. My betting strategy for November is predicated on Trump not having a unique coalition and it just being the standard Republican voter base and that Trump's win was predicated on Romney voter voting for him whilst Obama voter stayed home or went third party instead of Clinton.
Voter screens in American polls will filter out 2016 non voters which means that Clinton haters willing to vote for Biden will not show up in current polling.
But, if Trump's voter share is not just the regualr GOP voters then my betting strategy is fucked.
I think the reasons for Brexit success and Trump success are completely different and trying to equate them as some kind of anti Liberal elitist movement is mistaken.0 -
I see Faisal Islam is having to be educated by Prof Cricket on the twitters...this day of death thing seems totally beyond journalists comprehension.0
-
Increasingly our team see the condition as being triphasic, with different treatments appropriate at different stages, each about a week in duration.ABZ said:For those interested, this is a good blog to follow for Coronavirus therapeutic developments: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/27/anti-il-6-for-coronavirus-patients-does-it-work-or-not
The report on Toczilumab from France sounds interesting, albeit not a classic RCT, but an open-label experiment so needs further work...
1) viral phase
2) respiratory phase
3) inflammatory multi-organ failure phase0 -
Out of Office hopefullyDecrepiterJohnL said:
Ignore Brexit. Trump won by pretending to be a populist against the elitist Hillary Clinton. This pretence did not last very long as Trump pivoted to the swamp he'd claimed to want to drain, and as @HYUFD's polls tell us, neither the assault on Obamacare nor tax cuts for billionaires greatly impressed the working and lower middle class groups who backed him last time. So where does Trump go next?isam said:
I’ve barely thought about it, just seems that way to me. Maybe you’re rightAlistair said:FTPT
isam said:
It doesn't really matter. When a politician that someone has strong feelings against is succesful, the reason for that success is always a deficiency on the side of their defeated opponent/campaign.Alistair said:
What's the evidence that Trump voters are a unique coalition of left behind, economically anxious people as opposed to people who have voted Republican at every election for the last 20 years?isam said:
I would have thought you wouldAlistair said:
Really? Trump got mostly the same voters as Bush, McCain and Romney. He lost the popular vote and won only because Clinton was a uniquely unpopular candidate with a terrible campaign staff who set out to prove that the Obama campaign won 'wrong'.isam said:.
There are massive parallels between the reasons Brexit and Trump won,OllyT said:
The theme is that any British Trumptons were very very likely to be Brexiteers. Lots of people pretending they never had any time for him now he has become such an embarrassment but that was not what they were saying at the time he was elected. The UK Trump-rampers that come to mind are all UKIP types - who can forget all those photos of good old Nigel fawning over him. Remind me of any prominent remainers that were Trump fans - I'm sure there must be an odd one but I can't think of any..Malmesbury said:
I have noted a persistent theme - that all Brexiters must be Trump supporters. Despite polling that indicates virtually no-one in the UK has any time for him.Philip_Thompson said:
I've got no overlap.OllyT said:
A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.Nigel_Foremain said:
Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.Philip_Thompson said:
Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.kamski said:TGOHF666 said:
Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.eristdoof said:Slackbladder said:
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:Philip_Thompson said:
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.Nigelb said:
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...Nigelb said:
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.TOPPING said:
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.Philip_Thompson said:
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.CarlottaVance said:
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
Just a musing on that...
Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.
Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850.
That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.
"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"
The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.
Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.
Brexit had a quarter of a century campaign by the highest selling newspapers in the country covering every demographic.
I think the links are pretty tenuous.
Clinton, Corbyn, Remain...
I wasn't asking a rhetorical question. My betting strategy for November is predicated on Trump not having a unique coalition and it just being the standard Republican voter base and that Trump's win was predicated on Romney voter voting for him whilst Obama voter stayed home or went third party instead of Clinton.
Voter screens in American polls will filter out 2016 non voters which means that Clinton haters willing to vote for Biden will not show up in current polling.
But, if Trump's voter share is not just the regualr GOP voters then my betting strategy is fucked.
I think the reasons for Brexit success and Trump success are completely different and trying to equate them as some kind of anti Liberal elitist movement is mistaken.1 -
I think that's a good question. I think about it a lot.ydoethur said:
I’m reminded of the exasperated judge who discharged a jury for being terminally thick after they asked him what a ‘reasonable doubt‘ was.FrancisUrquhart said:"Q: There is confusion about what the social distancing measures are. Can you clarify them?"
Head..desk..thud.....
"Beyond reasonable doubt"
It implies that any doubt remaining is not supported by reason.
So is this the same as saying that to a reasonable person there is NO doubt?
I'd definitely ask the judge that if I wasn't intimidated by the surroundings.0 -
People are speculating on falling house prices but surely it is commercial property that will take the first hit, as shops close or do not reopen, then the second hit as office workers continue to WFH so firms don't need office space. Demand for housing will probably remain constant.SandyRentool said:John Lewis expecting permanent store closures. They have 50 stores. Spread of 24 - 26 for number of closures?
0 -
This should interest you...kinabalu said:
I think that's a good question. I think about it a lot.ydoethur said:
I’m reminded of the exasperated judge who discharged a jury for being terminally thick after they asked him what a ‘reasonable doubt‘ was.FrancisUrquhart said:"Q: There is confusion about what the social distancing measures are. Can you clarify them?"
Head..desk..thud.....
"Beyond reasonable doubt"
It implies that any doubt remaining is not supported by reason.
So is this the same as saying that to a reasonable person there is NO doubt?
I'd definitely ask the judge that if I wasn't intimidated by the surroundings.
http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/61159/1/Picinali_Threshold lies in method.pdf
0 -
Back of the net!rottenborough said:
Telegraph speculating on an IHT level of 80% this morning.EPG said:He unveiled the magic money tree. Wait til he has to prune it.
0 -
It's all China's fault!DecrepiterJohnL said:
Ignore Brexit. Trump won by pretending to be a populist against the elitist Hillary Clinton. This pretence did not last very long as Trump pivoted to the swamp he'd claimed to want to drain, and as @HYUFD's polls tell us, neither the assault on Obamacare nor tax cuts for billionaires greatly impressed the working and lower middle class groups who backed him last time. So where does Trump go next?isam said:
I’ve barely thought about it, just seems that way to me. Maybe you’re rightAlistair said:FTPT
isam said:
It doesn't really matter. When a politician that someone has strong feelings against is succesful, the reason for that success is always a deficiency on the side of their defeated opponent/campaign.Alistair said:
What's the evidence that Trump voters are a unique coalition of left behind, economically anxious people as opposed to people who have voted Republican at every election for the last 20 years?isam said:
I would have thought you wouldAlistair said:
Really? Trump got mostly the same voters as Bush, McCain and Romney. He lost the popular vote and won only because Clinton was a uniquely unpopular candidate with a terrible campaign staff who set out to prove that the Obama campaign won 'wrong'.isam said:.
There are massive parallels between the reasons Brexit and Trump won,OllyT said:
The theme is that any British Trumptons were very very likely to be Brexiteers. Lots of people pretending they never had any time for him now he has become such an embarrassment but that was not what they were saying at the time he was elected. The UK Trump-rampers that come to mind are all UKIP types - who can forget all those photos of good old Nigel fawning over him. Remind me of any prominent remainers that were Trump fans - I'm sure there must be an odd one but I can't think of any..Malmesbury said:
I have noted a persistent theme - that all Brexiters must be Trump supporters. Despite polling that indicates virtually no-one in the UK has any time for him.Philip_Thompson said:
I've got no overlap.OllyT said:
A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.Nigel_Foremain said:
Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.Philip_Thompson said:
Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.kamski said:TGOHF666 said:
Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.eristdoof said:Slackbladder said:
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:Philip_Thompson said:
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.Nigelb said:
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...Nigelb said:
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.TOPPING said:
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.Philip_Thompson said:
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.CarlottaVance said:
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
Just a musing on that...
Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.
Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850.
That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.
"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"
The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.
Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.
Brexit had a quarter of a century campaign by the highest selling newspapers in the country covering every demographic.
I think the links are pretty tenuous.
Clinton, Corbyn, Remain...
I wasn't asking a rhetorical question. My betting strategy for November is predicated on Trump not having a unique coalition and it just being the standard Republican voter base and that Trump's win was predicated on Romney voter voting for him whilst Obama voter stayed home or went third party instead of Clinton.
Voter screens in American polls will filter out 2016 non voters which means that Clinton haters willing to vote for Biden will not show up in current polling.
But, if Trump's voter share is not just the regualr GOP voters then my betting strategy is fucked.
I think the reasons for Brexit success and Trump success are completely different and trying to equate them as some kind of anti Liberal elitist movement is mistaken.0 -
Ohh Boooorrrrissss Jooooohnssssonnnnnkinabalu said:
Back of the net!rottenborough said:
Telegraph speculating on an IHT level of 80% this morning.EPG said:He unveiled the magic money tree. Wait til he has to prune it.
0 -
Do Gov ministers read PB?
I warned days and days ago that their fifth test about avoiding all risk of a 2nd wave was ludicrous and probably meant lockdown until the end of next winter.
Now they have revised.0 -
Demand for housing is going to change but we don't know how.DecrepiterJohnL said:
People are speculating on falling house prices but surely it is commercial property that will take the first hit, as shops close or do not reopen, then the second hit as office workers continue to WFH so firms don't need office space. Demand for housing will probably remain constant.SandyRentool said:John Lewis expecting permanent store closures. They have 50 stores. Spread of 24 - 26 for number of closures?
1) we don't know how many Eastern Europeans and others will return home.
2) we don't know what x weeks of enforced lockdown has done to relationships
3) If working from home longterm people are going to want separate office space (we would be scuppered without the empty spare bedroom for my wife).
Also while a lot of people are probably no worse off than they were before others are and that is going to make predictions impossible.0 -
It will. Thank you.Gadfly said:
This should interest you...kinabalu said:
I think that's a good question. I think about it a lot.ydoethur said:
I’m reminded of the exasperated judge who discharged a jury for being terminally thick after they asked him what a ‘reasonable doubt‘ was.FrancisUrquhart said:"Q: There is confusion about what the social distancing measures are. Can you clarify them?"
Head..desk..thud.....
"Beyond reasonable doubt"
It implies that any doubt remaining is not supported by reason.
So is this the same as saying that to a reasonable person there is NO doubt?
I'd definitely ask the judge that if I wasn't intimidated by the surroundings.
http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/61159/1/Picinali_Threshold lies in method.pdf0 -
I'd sooner set fire to it all than hand over 80% of my wealth to the government.kinabalu said:
Back of the net!rottenborough said:
Telegraph speculating on an IHT level of 80% this morning.EPG said:He unveiled the magic money tree. Wait til he has to prune it.
I'll stop off at the casino on my way to Dignitas before letting them rob me blind.
Well, it's that or use any one of the tax loopholes to keep it out of their hands.0 -
Yes - and different therapies are critical at each. Anti-viral / monoclonal antibodies / plasma to begin with then, if things get worse, drugs to dampen down the immune response. Why designing the right trial is so key - and also hard as the number of patients begins to drop - a (good!) challenge right now in the UK.Foxy said:
Increasingly our team see the condition as being triphasic, with different treatments appropriate at different stages, each about a week in duration.ABZ said:For those interested, this is a good blog to follow for Coronavirus therapeutic developments: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/27/anti-il-6-for-coronavirus-patients-does-it-work-or-not
The report on Toczilumab from France sounds interesting, albeit not a classic RCT, but an open-label experiment so needs further work...
1) viral phase
2) respiratory phase
3) inflammatory multi-organ failure phase1 -
Shhh nobody notice the change to test 5rottenborough said:Do Gov ministers read PB?
I warned days and days ago that their fifth test about avoiding all risk of a 2nd wave was ludicrous and probably meant lockdown until the end of next winter.
Now they have revised.
If it werent for those pesky kids on PB we would've got away with it.
I reckon the purple line on slide 9 of 9 is next to get it0 -
Yes - I expect Sinophobia to be his core message.CatMan said:
It's all China's fault!DecrepiterJohnL said:
Ignore Brexit. Trump won by pretending to be a populist against the elitist Hillary Clinton. This pretence did not last very long as Trump pivoted to the swamp he'd claimed to want to drain, and as @HYUFD's polls tell us, neither the assault on Obamacare nor tax cuts for billionaires greatly impressed the working and lower middle class groups who backed him last time. So where does Trump go next?isam said:
I’ve barely thought about it, just seems that way to me. Maybe you’re rightAlistair said:FTPT
isam said:
It doesn't really matter. When a politician that someone has strong feelings against is succesful, the reason for that success is always a deficiency on the side of their defeated opponent/campaign.Alistair said:
What's the evidence that Trump voters are a unique coalition of left behind, economically anxious people as opposed to people who have voted Republican at every election for the last 20 years?isam said:
I would have thought you wouldAlistair said:
Really? Trump got mostly the same voters as Bush, McCain and Romney. He lost the popular vote and won only because Clinton was a uniquely unpopular candidate with a terrible campaign staff who set out to prove that the Obama campaign won 'wrong'.isam said:.
There are massive parallels between the reasons Brexit and Trump won,OllyT said:
The theme is that any British Trumptons were very very likely to be Brexiteers. Lots of people pretending they never had any time for him now he has become such an embarrassment but that was not what they were saying at the time he was elected. The UK Trump-rampers that come to mind are all UKIP types - who can forget all those photos of good old Nigel fawning over him. Remind me of any prominent remainers that were Trump fans - I'm sure there must be an odd one but I can't think of any..Malmesbury said:
I have noted a persistent theme - that all Brexiters must be Trump supporters. Despite polling that indicates virtually no-one in the UK has any time for him.Philip_Thompson said:
I've got no overlap.OllyT said:
A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.Nigel_Foremain said:
Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.Philip_Thompson said:
Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.kamski said:TGOHF666 said:
Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.eristdoof said:Slackbladder said:
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:Philip_Thompson said:
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.Nigelb said:
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...Nigelb said:
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.TOPPING said:
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.Philip_Thompson said:
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.CarlottaVance said:
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
Just a musing on that...
Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.
Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850.
That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.
"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"
The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.
Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.
Brexit had a quarter of a century campaign by the highest selling newspapers in the country covering every demographic.
I think the links are pretty tenuous.
Clinton, Corbyn, Remain...
I wasn't asking a rhetorical question. My betting strategy for November is predicated on Trump not having a unique coalition and it just being the standard Republican voter base and that Trump's win was predicated on Romney voter voting for him whilst Obama voter stayed home or went third party instead of Clinton.
Voter screens in American polls will filter out 2016 non voters which means that Clinton haters willing to vote for Biden will not show up in current polling.
But, if Trump's voter share is not just the regualr GOP voters then my betting strategy is fucked.
I think the reasons for Brexit success and Trump success are completely different and trying to equate them as some kind of anti Liberal elitist movement is mistaken.0 -
0
-
They must be saving the big official Obama endorsement for the convention.williamglenn said:Why isn't Joe Biden 50 points ahead?
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/12551834808598241290 -
Evening all
The second slide from today on transport usage is interesting. It seems to be counter to a lot of the anecdotal reporting on here suggesting the lock down was crumbling. Tube and rail passenger numbers remain at 5-10% of normal so plenty of trains must be running empty or near empty - they are running on time though suggesting the real problem with the railway system is the passengers not the trains or the signals or the infrastructure - who'd have thunk it?
London bus travel passenger numbers might have risen but as journeys have been free since Monday 20th we don't know so perhaps all these lock down evaders are on the bus. Car journeys are 35-40% of normal - the A406 sounded loud today but it always does - so perhaps all those desperate to escape lock down and rush back to the joy of work are walking or car sharing or perhaps it's just an invented pile of nonsense from those trying to push for an end to the lock down - "look, it's crumbling, Boris can end it and enjoy the gratitude of the nation."
After all, we are all desperate for the lock down to end - apparently we aren't.
Boris once again worked out what his audience wanted to hear - the lock down stays for now - it might be eased a little, it might not but be patient.0 -
So doing 43k tests yesterday. If Hancock had promised 50k, he would be looking forward to getting a bit of credit on Friday. Instead going to be getting 20 questions on why he missed his own target.0
This discussion has been closed.