Property prices will go down. The question is - by how much?
I suppose that is linked to how quickly the economy recovers. My guess is not very quickly, and not very much. So a prolonged, drawn out fall in prices akin to the mid 90s. And quite a lot of people trapped by negative equity. Then there's the question of rising interest rates on top of that.
One other factor that didn't exist in previous crashes is AirBnB properties.
If global travel is kaput for the next year or more, we could see a lot of distressed sales. The rental market will also be flooded.
All the signs are pointing towards an almighty downturn...
I wonder if this heralds the end of the era of great and lordly megacities, certainly in the West, for a while
In the last two decades New York, Shanghai, Singapore and London, and to a lesser extent Paris, Milan, Berlin, etc have all benefited - as cities - from conglomeration, and the clustering of elite wealth.
Living in a superskinny sky scraper in Manhattan, or a Docklands loft in London, now looks much less appealing. Coronavirus might return, year after year, entailing lockdown after lockdown
Even before corona, New York City was beginning to slowly depopulate (unnoticed by many) so the signs of decline started before the Plague. Now it must accelerate.
Not great for those of us sitting on London prime property, but we will survive. In the long run it will be good for kids, who will eventually return to the cities, and thus they will rise again.
The cycle spins.
Wealth will decide it wants to be in isolated properties in lovely Devon. Self isolating in remote luxury is the new hip way to enjoy life. The market here will stay buoyant.
Mr. kinabalu, it's tokenism for someone unfit to be in the Cabinet.
Ethnic diversity at the top of government is great to see and I don't think in her case it is tokenism. I think she was promoted due to her hero worship of "Boris" and as a dog whistle to the reactionary right of the party.
I do not like her one bit but I'm looking on the bright side and seeking the positives from the situation. If we have to have Priti Patel as Home Secretary then I'm delighted that she is BAME. I would rather not have her at all - obviously - but the thought of her both being Home Secretary and not being BAME hardly bears thinking about.
BA redundancies imply the 3rd runway at Heathrow may no longer be needed?
The second one seems optional at the moment.
Given that Airbus is in danger of actually going under it is safe to assume travel will suffer for many years, maybe a decade. Unless there is an effective vaccine, of course.
BA redundancies imply the 3rd runway at Heathrow may no longer be needed?
The second one seems optional at the moment.
Given that Airbus is in danger of actually going under it is safe to assume travel will suffer for many years, maybe a decade. Unless there is an effective vaccine, of course.
Godspeed to the boffins at Oxford.
I think we all could second that.
Well, except for the loons who want them to fail because of our imperial past.
Pity they can't use A320s for Tesco home deliveries...
As I understand it A320 production has been reduced to 40 aircraft per month and Airbus in Broughton have wingsets stored in the former A380 factory and across the facility. A decision has been made to furlough the staff, some to the end of June, so the wingsets can be used from stock and when production recommences in July the production will be put into sync with the overall aircraft manufacturing
Also Airbus is uplifting the the 80% to approx 87.5%
Property prices will go down. The question is - by how much?
I suppose that is linked to how quickly the economy recovers. My guess is not very quickly, and not very much. So a prolonged, drawn out fall in prices akin to the mid 90s. And quite a lot of people trapped by negative equity. Then there's the question of rising interest rates on top of that.
One other factor that didn't exist in previous crashes is AirBnB properties.
If global travel is kaput for the next year or more, we could see a lot of distressed sales. The rental market will also be flooded.
All the signs are pointing towards an almighty downturn...
I wonder if this heralds the end of the era of great and lordly megacities, certainly in the West, for a while
Not great for those of us sitting on London prime property, but we will survive. In the long run it will be good for kids, who will eventually return to the cities, and thus they will rise again.
The cycle spins.
Wealth will decide it wants to be in isolated properties in lovely Devon. Self isolating in remote luxury is the new hip way to enjoy life. The market here will stay buoyant.
No, it won't. Global wealth in toto will take a massive hit. You're not thinking it through.
The decline will START in London, New York, Paris but it will spread from there. Indeed next on the list will probably be luxury bolt-holes, as the number of rich people declines in absolute terms.
Lower status country properties will be the most resistant, maybe.
“ The decline will START in London, New York, Paris...”
BA redundancies imply the 3rd runway at Heathrow may no longer be needed?
The second one seems optional at the moment.
Given that Airbus is in danger of actually going under it is safe to assume travel will suffer for many years, maybe a decade. Unless there is an effective vaccine, of course.
Godspeed to the boffins at Oxford.
I think we all could second that.
Well, except for the loons who want them to fail because of our imperial past.
In a statement, IAG said: “In light of the impact of Covid-19 on current operations and the expectation that the recovery of passenger demand to 2019 levels will take several years, British Airways is formally notifying its trade unions about a proposed restructuring and redundancy programme.
“The proposals remain subject to consultation but it is likely that they will affect most of British Airways’ employees and may result in the redundancy of up to 12,000 of them.
“As previously announced, British Airways has availed itself of the UK’s Covid-19 job retention scheme and furloughed 22,626 employees in April.”
Property prices will go down. The question is - by how much?
I suppose that is linked to how quickly the economy recovers. My guess is not very quickly, and not very much. So a prolonged, drawn out fall in prices akin to the mid 90s. And quite a lot of people trapped by negative equity. Then there's the question of rising interest rates on top of that.
One other factor that didn't exist in previous crashes is AirBnB properties.
If global travel is kaput for the next year or more, we could see a lot of distressed sales. The rental market will also be flooded.
All the signs are pointing towards an almighty downturn...
I wonder if this heralds the end of the era of great and lordly megacities, certainly in the West, for a while
Not great for those of us sitting on London prime property, but we will survive. In the long run it will be good for kids, who will eventually return to the cities, and thus they will rise again.
The cycle spins.
Wealth will decide it wants to be in isolated properties in lovely Devon. Self isolating in remote luxury is the new hip way to enjoy life. The market here will stay buoyant.
No, it won't. Global wealth in toto will take a massive hit. You're not thinking it through.
The decline will START in London, New York, Paris but it will spread from there. Indeed next on the list will probably be luxury bolt-holes, as the number of rich people declines in absolute terms.
Lower status country properties will be the most resistant, maybe.
You might both be right. Devon will doubtless remain desirable, and prices may remain high in such places, but this may be due to a very thin market as existing homeowners refuse to accept that the value of their house has fallen. So they stay put.
Accordingly, I expect house sale volume to be hugely down. With the knock-on effects down the market the consequences for housebuilders may be dire. This is why I`ve sold some housebuilder shares in recent days. They may be keen to get building again asap, but heaven knows who they think they are going to sell to.
As this is PedanticBetting.com I should point out that a second peak is almost guaranteed – even if the peak is absolutely tiny and utterly insignificant (inshallah!) it would nevertheless be a statistical peak!
That's been my hunch for a while now, based upon nothing other than eliminating all the wishful thinking that it's so tempting to believe will save our bacon. It will be like having a new flu to deal with, and every now and then it will really blow up.
Property prices will go down. The question is - by how much?
I suppose that is linked to how quickly the economy recovers. My guess is not very quickly, and not very much. So a prolonged, drawn out fall in prices akin to the mid 90s. And quite a lot of people trapped by negative equity. Then there's the question of rising interest rates on top of that.
One other factor that didn't exist in previous crashes is AirBnB properties.
If global travel is kaput for the next year or more, we could see a lot of distressed sales. The rental market will also be flooded.
All the signs are pointing towards an almighty downturn...
I wonder if this heralds the end of the era of great and lordly megacities, certainly in the West, for a while
Not great for those of us sitting on London prime property, but we will survive. In the long run it will be good for kids, who will eventually return to the cities, and thus they will rise again.
The cycle spins.
Wealth will decide it wants to be in isolated properties in lovely Devon. Self isolating in remote luxury is the new hip way to enjoy life. The market here will stay buoyant.
No, it won't. Global wealth in toto will take a massive hit. You're not thinking it through.
The decline will START in London, New York, Paris but it will spread from there. Indeed next on the list will probably be luxury bolt-holes, as the number of rich people declines in absolute terms.
Lower status country properties will be the most resistant, maybe.
“ The decline will START in London, New York, Paris...”
Property prices will go down. The question is - by how much?
I suppose that is linked to how quickly the economy recovers. My guess is not very quickly, and not very much. So a prolonged, drawn out fall in prices akin to the mid 90s. And quite a lot of people trapped by negative equity. Then there's the question of rising interest rates on top of that.
One other factor that didn't exist in previous crashes is AirBnB properties.
If global travel is kaput for the next year or more, we could see a lot of distressed sales. The rental market will also be flooded.
All the signs are pointing towards an almighty downturn...
On top of that, at the moment suburban Gardens are looking very attractive to a lot of apartment dwellers.
I see the government have moved the goalposts again on who can get a test. I have to say, you might as well now just say anybody who wants one, can queue up...as the rules aren't far off that.
Just have it that front line staff can book appointments / have a fast lane and the plebs have to queue.
"Q: There is confusion about what the social distancing measures are. Can you clarify them?"
Head..desk..thud.....
I’m reminded of the exasperated judge who discharged a jury for being terminally thick after they asked him what a ‘reasonable doubt‘ was.
Most of my good friends have kids who are under 11...they all know the deal. I would love to say that's because they all super smart for their age, but (whispers it) there are a couple who definitely aren't the sharpest tools in the box....we all know them, the ones that will eat anything they find on the ground and try to climb the tree with the thinnest branches.
@Foxy regarding what happens next, are your NHS colleagues getting a better idea of what treatment (e.g., level of oxygen / patients being prone) work better? It will be important for better managing a background level of Covid-19 cases...
April the 8th has become peakier. They added a death a mere 20 days later to take it to 111 deaths soaring away from the 109 and 108 deaths of the 15th and 16th.
I see the government have moved the goalposts again on who can get a test. I have to say, you might as well now just say anybody who wants one, can queue up...as the rules aren't far off that.
Just have it that front line staff can book appointments / have a fast lane and the plebs have to queue.
I'm confused. Why would an over 65 year old with symptoms leave their house to queue to get a test?
Or are they saying they will be able to send someone around to the house?
I see the government have moved the goalposts again on who can get a test. I have to say, you might as well now just say anybody who wants one, can queue up...as the rules aren't far off that.
Just have it that front line staff can book appointments / have a fast lane and the plebs have to queue.
I'm confused. Why would an over 65 year old with symptoms leave their house to queue to get a test?
Or are they saying they will be able to send someone around to the house?
The shit Westminster government is starving them of capacity you bellend
How?
They have not provided the necessary equipment , that's how , the dummies cannot manage a fraction of their own targets, try to imagine how much they are sending to Scotland.
As a guide to what might happen to property after Corona, here's what happened in the Great Depression in NYC
"According to Scherbina and Nicholas’ working paper, “Real Estate Prices during the Great Depression,” the prices for a typical Manhattan house increased 62% in a run up of the 1929 stock market crash and then lost 51% of that value by the end of 1933. By 1932 and 1937 the stock market showed signs of rebounding, but real estate did not, according to Scherbina. A house purchased in 1920 would have lost 51% of its value (in inflation-adjusted terms) by the end of 1939. Scherbina and Nicholas report that it wasn’t until 1960 that housing prices recovered."
Took THIRTY YEARS for prices to recover. Tho the 2nd World War probably didnt't help
I'm in an odd position I've rented all my life asnd see no reason to change, but have promised to help a relative prone to anxiety to buy somewhere to help their long-term sense of security. Do I now urge them to rush out at the first opportunity and find somewhere before the buyers come back, or tell them to wait (anxiously) for years because I think the market will drop? My sense, like yours, is that prices will decline (maybe not that much as the underlying shortage hasn't gone away), but it will probably take a while before people work out what to do.
The bottom line if you're not buying for an investment is to go ahead and do it anyway, I guess.
The shit Westminster government is starving them of capacity you bellend
How?
They have not provided the necessary equipment , that's how , the dummies cannot manage a fraction of their own targets, try to imagine how much they are sending to Scotland.
Genuine question: given how much of health policy is now devolved, to what extent (if any) is the provision of testing a reserved matter?
The questions about testing at UK Government briefings, when not directly answered by ministers, seem typically to be passed on to Public Health England officials. Their authority does not, presumably, extend elsewhere.
The shit Westminster government is starving them of capacity you bellend
How?
They have not provided the necessary equipment , that's how , the dummies cannot manage a fraction of their own targets, try to imagine how much they are sending to Scotland.
Do you have evidence for this claim? Health is devolved...
Property prices will go down. The question is - by how much?
I suppose that is linked to how quickly the economy recovers. My guess is not very quickly, and not very much. So a prolonged, drawn out fall in prices akin to the mid 90s. And quite a lot of people trapped by negative equity. Then there's the question of rising interest rates on top of that.
One other factor that didn't exist in previous crashes is AirBnB properties.
If global travel is kaput for the next year or more, we could see a lot of distressed sales. The rental market will also be flooded.
All the signs are pointing towards an almighty downturn...
On top of that, at the moment suburban Gardens are looking very attractive to a lot of apartment dwellers.
If only we had a Prime Minister who is an expert on allotments.
The final slide at todays briefing was a complete killer.
Deaths inc Care Homes line miles above other rivals in the shittest outcome in Europe league.
Did you read the small print though? The way deaths are recorded is really not comparable... I quoted a bit of this downthread but repost here:
"Country data is aligned by stage of the outbreak. Day 0 equals the first day 50 cumulative deaths were reported. Different countries have different methods of counting Covid19 deaths which means it is difficult to compare statistics across countries. Some countries, such as France and the US, count deaths resulting directly from the virus only, whilst others, such as the UK and Italy, use a wider definition of deaths of those with the virus but who potentially died of other causes. In addition, some countries, such as France, include deaths from the virus in care homes whilst others, such as Italy, report hospital deaths only."
Yes, so I found when I googled the details of this other case. It’s clear some right ‘tards sit on juries. I blame their teach...I mean, social failings.
Turned out it was Vicky Price (who also made my favourite faux pas of the Great Crash when she said on radio ‘the only way Greece can repay its debts is by borrowing’).
They did ask some stunningly daft questions of the poor judge. I don’t wonder he was pissed off. Here’s the full list.
Pre-teatime excitement involved taking the garden waste bins out. A monthly treat.
Never mind the dog walkers, the highlight of the outing was feeling rain on my face for the first time in weeks.
I have also made it through our broccoli stockpile. Still plenty of leeks and onions to digest. Three of the latter turned up today in what was styled as a 'salad box'. Next veg box arrives tomorrow. I'm anticipating more leeks.
The final slide at todays briefing was a complete killer.
Deaths inc Care Homes line miles above other rivals in the shittest outcome in Europe league.
It is grim.
Are the numbers from France, Spain and Italy shown for comparison also representative of total mortality from the virus, or do they only count the hospitals as well? The two justifications originally given for not including care home deaths in the briefing were (i) that they were reported well in arrears (whereas the hospital numbers were collected daily, and (ii) the hospital only numbers were more closely comparable with methods of reporting used in other jurisdictions.
Property prices will go down. The question is - by how much?
I suppose that is linked to how quickly the economy recovers. My guess is not very quickly, and not very much. So a prolonged, drawn out fall in prices akin to the mid 90s. And quite a lot of people trapped by negative equity. Then there's the question of rising interest rates on top of that.
One other factor that didn't exist in previous crashes is AirBnB properties.
If global travel is kaput for the next year or more, we could see a lot of distressed sales. The rental market will also be flooded.
All the signs are pointing towards an almighty downturn...
On top of that, at the moment suburban Gardens are looking very attractive to a lot of apartment dwellers.
@Foxy regarding what happens next, are your NHS colleagues getting a better idea of what treatment (e.g., level of oxygen / patients being prone) work better? It will be important for better managing a background level of Covid-19 cases...
From a chat with one of our anaesthetists earlier:
Proning is normal, with patients being 18 hours in that position. They try to keep non-ventilated as long as possible.
Currently there are major problems with managing renal failure. It doesn't seem to be purely due to hypotension and hypovolemia, though that contributes. There seems to be a problem of renal microthrombi too, which may also be part of the VQ mismatch. Clotting seems quite key.
Running several different drug trials, but no real answers just yet.
The final slide at todays briefing was a complete killer.
Deaths inc Care Homes line miles above other rivals in the shittest outcome in Europe league.
It is grim.
Are the numbers from France, Spain and Italy shown for comparison also representative of total mortality from the virus, or do they only count the hospitals as well? The two justifications originally given for not including care home deaths in the briefing were (i) that they were reported well in arrears (whereas the hospital numbers were collected daily, and (ii) the hospital only numbers were more closely comparable with methods of reporting used in other jurisdictions.
The final slide at todays briefing was a complete killer.
Deaths inc Care Homes line miles above other rivals in the shittest outcome in Europe league.
It is grim.
Are the numbers from France, Spain and Italy shown for comparison also representative of total mortality from the virus, or do they only count the hospitals as well? The two justifications originally given for not including care home deaths in the briefing were (i) that they were reported well in arrears (whereas the hospital numbers were collected daily, and (ii) the hospital only numbers were more closely comparable with methods of reporting used in other jurisdictions.
France shows all settings Italy only Hospitals
Spain not sure
Yes, but France only reports deaths directly attributable to Covid - so you really can't compare with the UK where, since it's a notifiable disease, it must be reported whenever it is on the death certificate.
The key point, however, is that we will only really be able to make this comparison post hoc by looking at excess mortality, for which the data are not currently available.
Pre-teatime excitement involved taking the garden waste bins out. A monthly treat.
Never mind the dog walkers, the highlight of the outing was feeling rain on my face for the first time in weeks.
I have also made it through our broccoli stockpile. Still plenty of leeks and onions to digest. Three of the latter turned up today in what was styled as a 'salad box'. Next veg box arrives tomorrow. I'm anticipating more leeks.
The final slide at todays briefing was a complete killer.
Deaths inc Care Homes line miles above other rivals in the shittest outcome in Europe league.
It is grim.
Are the numbers from France, Spain and Italy shown for comparison also representative of total mortality from the virus, or do they only count the hospitals as well? The two justifications originally given for not including care home deaths in the briefing were (i) that they were reported well in arrears (whereas the hospital numbers were collected daily, and (ii) the hospital only numbers were more closely comparable with methods of reporting used in other jurisdictions.
As far as I know from what has been said on here about this by those who know far more than me about those countries, France is including Care Home deaths in their numbers, Italy is not and I am not clear about Spain. I don't know if any of them count deaths in the community outside of institutions.
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.
Just a musing on that...
Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.
Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.
Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850. That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.
"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"
Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.
The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.
Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.
A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.
I've got no overlap.
Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.
I have noted a persistent theme - that all Brexiters must be Trump supporters. Despite polling that indicates virtually no-one in the UK has any time for him.
The theme is that any British Trumptons were very very likely to be Brexiteers. Lots of people pretending they never had any time for him now he has become such an embarrassment but that was not what they were saying at the time he was elected. The UK Trump-rampers that come to mind are all UKIP types - who can forget all those photos of good old Nigel fawning over him. Remind me of any prominent remainers that were Trump fans - I'm sure there must be an odd one but I can't think of any..
There are massive parallels between the reasons Brexit and Trump won,
Really? Trump got mostly the same voters as Bush, McCain and Romney. He lost the popular vote and won only because Clinton was a uniquely unpopular candidate with a terrible campaign staff who set out to prove that the Obama campaign won 'wrong'.
Brexit had a quarter of a century campaign by the highest selling newspapers in the country covering every demographic.
I think the links are pretty tenuous.
I would have thought you would
What's the evidence that Trump voters are a unique coalition of left behind, economically anxious people as opposed to people who have voted Republican at every election for the last 20 years?
It doesn't really matter. When a politician that someone has strong feelings against is succesful, the reason for that success is always a deficiency on the side of their defeated opponent/campaign.
Clinton, Corbyn, Remain...
I wasn't asking a rhetorical question. My betting strategy for November is predicated on Trump not having a unique coalition and it just being the standard Republican voter base and that Trump's win was predicated on Romney voter voting for him whilst Obama voter stayed home or went third party instead of Clinton.
Voter screens in American polls will filter out 2016 non voters which means that Clinton haters willing to vote for Biden will not show up in current polling.
But, if Trump's voter share is not just the regualr GOP voters then my betting strategy is fucked.
I think the reasons for Brexit success and Trump success are completely different and trying to equate them as some kind of anti Liberal elitist movement is mistaken.
I’ve barely thought about it, just seems that way to me. Maybe you’re right
Ignore Brexit. Trump won by pretending to be a populist against the elitist Hillary Clinton. This pretence did not last very long as Trump pivoted to the swamp he'd claimed to want to drain, and as @HYUFD's polls tell us, neither the assault on Obamacare nor tax cuts for billionaires greatly impressed the working and lower middle class groups who backed him last time. So where does Trump go next?
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.
Just a musing on that...
Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.
Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.
Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850. That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.
"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"
Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.
The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.
Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.
A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.
I've got no overlap.
Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.
I have noted a persistent theme - that all Brexiters must be Trump supporters. Despite polling that indicates virtually no-one in the UK has any time for him.
The theme is that any British Trumptons were very very likely to be Brexiteers. Lots of people pretending they never had any time for him now he has become such an embarrassment but that was not what they were saying at the time he was elected. The UK Trump-rampers that come to mind are all UKIP types - who can forget all those photos of good old Nigel fawning over him. Remind me of any prominent remainers that were Trump fans - I'm sure there must be an odd one but I can't think of any..
There are massive parallels between the reasons Brexit and Trump won,
Really? Trump got mostly the same voters as Bush, McCain and Romney. He lost the popular vote and won only because Clinton was a uniquely unpopular candidate with a terrible campaign staff who set out to prove that the Obama campaign won 'wrong'.
Brexit had a quarter of a century campaign by the highest selling newspapers in the country covering every demographic.
I think the links are pretty tenuous.
I would have thought you would
What's the evidence that Trump voters are a unique coalition of left behind, economically anxious people as opposed to people who have voted Republican at every election for the last 20 years?
It doesn't really matter. When a politician that someone has strong feelings against is succesful, the reason for that success is always a deficiency on the side of their defeated opponent/campaign.
Clinton, Corbyn, Remain...
I wasn't asking a rhetorical question. My betting strategy for November is predicated on Trump not having a unique coalition and it just being the standard Republican voter base and that Trump's win was predicated on Romney voter voting for him whilst Obama voter stayed home or went third party instead of Clinton.
Voter screens in American polls will filter out 2016 non voters which means that Clinton haters willing to vote for Biden will not show up in current polling.
But, if Trump's voter share is not just the regualr GOP voters then my betting strategy is fucked.
I think the reasons for Brexit success and Trump success are completely different and trying to equate them as some kind of anti Liberal elitist movement is mistaken.
I’ve barely thought about it, just seems that way to me. Maybe you’re right
Ignore Brexit. Trump won by pretending to be a populist against the elitist Hillary Clinton. This pretence did not last very long as Trump pivoted to the swamp he'd claimed to want to drain, and as @HYUFD's polls tell us, neither the assault on Obamacare nor tax cuts for billionaires greatly impressed the working and lower middle class groups who backed him last time. So where does Trump go next?
John Lewis expecting permanent store closures. They have 50 stores. Spread of 24 - 26 for number of closures?
People are speculating on falling house prices but surely it is commercial property that will take the first hit, as shops close or do not reopen, then the second hit as office workers continue to WFH so firms don't need office space. Demand for housing will probably remain constant.
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.
Just a musing on that...
Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.
Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.
Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850. That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.
"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"
Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.
The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.
Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.
A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.
I've got no overlap.
Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.
I have noted a persistent theme - that all Brexiters must be Trump supporters. Despite polling that indicates virtually no-one in the UK has any time for him.
The theme is that any British Trumptons were very very likely to be Brexiteers. Lots of people pretending they never had any time for him now he has become such an embarrassment but that was not what they were saying at the time he was elected. The UK Trump-rampers that come to mind are all UKIP types - who can forget all those photos of good old Nigel fawning over him. Remind me of any prominent remainers that were Trump fans - I'm sure there must be an odd one but I can't think of any..
There are massive parallels between the reasons Brexit and Trump won,
Really? Trump got mostly the same voters as Bush, McCain and Romney. He lost the popular vote and won only because Clinton was a uniquely unpopular candidate with a terrible campaign staff who set out to prove that the Obama campaign won 'wrong'.
Brexit had a quarter of a century campaign by the highest selling newspapers in the country covering every demographic.
I think the links are pretty tenuous.
I would have thought you would
What's the evidence that Trump voters are a unique coalition of left behind, economically anxious people as opposed to people who have voted Republican at every election for the last 20 years?
It doesn't really matter. When a politician that someone has strong feelings against is succesful, the reason for that success is always a deficiency on the side of their defeated opponent/campaign.
Clinton, Corbyn, Remain...
I wasn't asking a rhetorical question. My betting strategy for November is predicated on Trump not having a unique coalition and it just being the standard Republican voter base and that Trump's win was predicated on Romney voter voting for him whilst Obama voter stayed home or went third party instead of Clinton.
Voter screens in American polls will filter out 2016 non voters which means that Clinton haters willing to vote for Biden will not show up in current polling.
But, if Trump's voter share is not just the regualr GOP voters then my betting strategy is fucked.
I think the reasons for Brexit success and Trump success are completely different and trying to equate them as some kind of anti Liberal elitist movement is mistaken.
I’ve barely thought about it, just seems that way to me. Maybe you’re right
Ignore Brexit. Trump won by pretending to be a populist against the elitist Hillary Clinton. This pretence did not last very long as Trump pivoted to the swamp he'd claimed to want to drain, and as @HYUFD's polls tell us, neither the assault on Obamacare nor tax cuts for billionaires greatly impressed the working and lower middle class groups who backed him last time. So where does Trump go next?
I warned days and days ago that their fifth test about avoiding all risk of a 2nd wave was ludicrous and probably meant lockdown until the end of next winter.
John Lewis expecting permanent store closures. They have 50 stores. Spread of 24 - 26 for number of closures?
People are speculating on falling house prices but surely it is commercial property that will take the first hit, as shops close or do not reopen, then the second hit as office workers continue to WFH so firms don't need office space. Demand for housing will probably remain constant.
Demand for housing is going to change but we don't know how.
1) we don't know how many Eastern Europeans and others will return home. 2) we don't know what x weeks of enforced lockdown has done to relationships 3) If working from home longterm people are going to want separate office space (we would be scuppered without the empty spare bedroom for my wife).
Also while a lot of people are probably no worse off than they were before others are and that is going to make predictions impossible.
The report on Toczilumab from France sounds interesting, albeit not a classic RCT, but an open-label experiment so needs further work...
Increasingly our team see the condition as being triphasic, with different treatments appropriate at different stages, each about a week in duration.
1) viral phase
2) respiratory phase
3) inflammatory multi-organ failure phase
Yes - and different therapies are critical at each. Anti-viral / monoclonal antibodies / plasma to begin with then, if things get worse, drugs to dampen down the immune response. Why designing the right trial is so key - and also hard as the number of patients begins to drop - a (good!) challenge right now in the UK.
I warned days and days ago that their fifth test about avoiding all risk of a 2nd wave was ludicrous and probably meant lockdown until the end of next winter.
Now they have revised.
Shhh nobody notice the change to test 5
If it werent for those pesky kids on PB we would've got away with it.
I reckon the purple line on slide 9 of 9 is next to get it
Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.
Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.
Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.
Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.
Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.
Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...
Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.
Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.
Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:
"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."
I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.
Just a musing on that...
Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.
Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.
Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850. That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.
"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"
Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.
The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.
Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.
A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.
I've got no overlap.
Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.
I have noted a persistent theme - that all Brexiters must be Trump supporters. Despite polling that indicates virtually no-one in the UK has any time for him.
The theme is that any British Trumptons were very very likely to be Brexiteers. Lots of people pretending they never had any time for him now he has become such an embarrassment but that was not what they were saying at the time he was elected. The UK Trump-rampers that come to mind are all UKIP types - who can forget all those photos of good old Nigel fawning over him. Remind me of any prominent remainers that were Trump fans - I'm sure there must be an odd one but I can't think of any..
There are massive parallels between the reasons Brexit and Trump won,
Really? Trump got mostly the same voters as Bush, McCain and Romney. He lost the popular vote and won only because Clinton was a uniquely unpopular candidate with a terrible campaign staff who set out to prove that the Obama campaign won 'wrong'.
Brexit had a quarter of a century campaign by the highest selling newspapers in the country covering every demographic.
I think the links are pretty tenuous.
I would have thought you would
What's the evidence that Trump voters are a unique coalition of left behind, economically anxious people as opposed to people who have voted Republican at every election for the last 20 years?
It doesn't really matter. When a politician that someone has strong feelings against is succesful, the reason for that success is always a deficiency on the side of their defeated opponent/campaign.
Clinton, Corbyn, Remain...
I wasn't asking a rhetorical question. My betting strategy for November is predicated on Trump not having a unique coalition and it just being the standard Republican voter base and that Trump's win was predicated on Romney voter voting for him whilst Obama voter stayed home or went third party instead of Clinton.
Voter screens in American polls will filter out 2016 non voters which means that Clinton haters willing to vote for Biden will not show up in current polling.
But, if Trump's voter share is not just the regualr GOP voters then my betting strategy is fucked.
I think the reasons for Brexit success and Trump success are completely different and trying to equate them as some kind of anti Liberal elitist movement is mistaken.
I’ve barely thought about it, just seems that way to me. Maybe you’re right
Ignore Brexit. Trump won by pretending to be a populist against the elitist Hillary Clinton. This pretence did not last very long as Trump pivoted to the swamp he'd claimed to want to drain, and as @HYUFD's polls tell us, neither the assault on Obamacare nor tax cuts for billionaires greatly impressed the working and lower middle class groups who backed him last time. So where does Trump go next?
The second slide from today on transport usage is interesting. It seems to be counter to a lot of the anecdotal reporting on here suggesting the lock down was crumbling. Tube and rail passenger numbers remain at 5-10% of normal so plenty of trains must be running empty or near empty - they are running on time though suggesting the real problem with the railway system is the passengers not the trains or the signals or the infrastructure - who'd have thunk it?
London bus travel passenger numbers might have risen but as journeys have been free since Monday 20th we don't know so perhaps all these lock down evaders are on the bus. Car journeys are 35-40% of normal - the A406 sounded loud today but it always does - so perhaps all those desperate to escape lock down and rush back to the joy of work are walking or car sharing or perhaps it's just an invented pile of nonsense from those trying to push for an end to the lock down - "look, it's crumbling, Boris can end it and enjoy the gratitude of the nation."
After all, we are all desperate for the lock down to end - apparently we aren't.
Boris once again worked out what his audience wanted to hear - the lock down stays for now - it might be eased a little, it might not but be patient.
So doing 43k tests yesterday. If Hancock had promised 50k, he would be looking forward to getting a bit of credit on Friday. Instead going to be getting 20 questions on why he missed his own target.
Comments
Well, except for the loons who want them to fail because of our imperial past.
Also Airbus is uplifting the the 80% to approx 87.5%
That’s Del Boy fucked!
*Checks what my company does*
Oh... bugger.
Can you change the product? Meta-searching for antibody test providers might be quite lucrative.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1255168060459286528
“The proposals remain subject to consultation but it is likely that they will affect most of British Airways’ employees and may result in the redundancy of up to 12,000 of them.
“As previously announced, British Airways has availed itself of the UK’s Covid-19 job retention scheme and furloughed 22,626 employees in April.”
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/british-airways-workers-redundant-a4426456.html
https://www.iairgroup.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/newsroom-listing/2020/preliminary-financial-results
Accordingly, I expect house sale volume to be hugely down. With the knock-on effects down the market the consequences for housebuilders may be dire. This is why I`ve sold some housebuilder shares in recent days. They may be keen to get building again asap, but heaven knows who they think they are going to sell to.
Surely there always had to be a risk of a 2nd peak, even if it was a small one.
*not many, obviously, only those with no taste or subtlety.
I think I'll be staying home.
(Word 'at' omitted in order to stick with the governmental style)
Just have it that front line staff can book appointments / have a fast lane and the plebs have to queue.
"Judges told to stop using 'beyond reasonable doubt' as it confuses juries" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/26/judges-told-stop-using-beyond-reasonable-doubt-confuses-juries/
April the 8th has become peakier. They added a death a mere 20 days later to take it to 111 deaths soaring away from the 109 and 108 deaths of the 15th and 16th.
Or are they saying they will be able to send someone around to the house?
The bottom line if you're not buying for an investment is to go ahead and do it anyway, I guess.
Deaths inc Care Homes line miles above other rivals in the shittest outcome in Europe league.
The questions about testing at UK Government briefings, when not directly answered by ministers, seem typically to be passed on to Public Health England officials. Their authority does not, presumably, extend elsewhere.
State of the purple line
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/881811/2020-04-28_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides__6___1___1_.pdf
"Country data is aligned by stage of the outbreak. Day 0 equals the first day 50 cumulative deaths were reported. Different countries have different methods of counting Covid19 deaths which means it is difficult to compare statistics across countries. Some countries, such as France and the US, count deaths resulting directly from the virus only, whilst others, such as the UK and Italy, use a wider definition of deaths of those with the virus but who potentially died of other causes. In addition, some countries, such as France, include deaths from the virus in care homes whilst others, such as Italy, report hospital deaths only."
Turned out it was Vicky Price (who also made my favourite faux pas of the Great Crash when she said on radio ‘the only way Greece can repay its debts is by borrowing’).
They did ask some stunningly daft questions of the poor judge. I don’t wonder he was pissed off. Here’s the full list.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2013/feb/20/vicky-pryce-trial-10-questions
Question 5 is perhaps the best - ‘can we break the law or evidence, please?’
Never mind the dog walkers, the highlight of the outing was feeling rain on my face for the first time in weeks.
I have also made it through our broccoli stockpile. Still plenty of leeks and onions to digest. Three of the latter turned up today in what was styled as a 'salad box'. Next veg box arrives tomorrow. I'm anticipating more leeks.
Are the numbers from France, Spain and Italy shown for comparison also representative of total mortality from the virus, or do they only count the hospitals as well? The two justifications originally given for not including care home deaths in the briefing were (i) that they were reported well in arrears (whereas the hospital numbers were collected daily, and (ii) the hospital only numbers were more closely comparable with methods of reporting used in other jurisdictions.
The report on Toczilumab from France sounds interesting, albeit not a classic RCT, but an open-label experiment so needs further work...
Proning is normal, with patients being 18 hours in that position. They try to keep non-ventilated as long as possible.
Currently there are major problems with managing renal failure. It doesn't seem to be purely due to hypotension and hypovolemia, though that contributes. There seems to be a problem of renal microthrombi too, which may also be part of the VQ mismatch. Clotting seems quite key.
Running several different drug trials, but no real answers just yet.
Spain not sure
The key point, however, is that we will only really be able to make this comparison post hoc by looking at excess mortality, for which the data are not currently available.
1) viral phase
2) respiratory phase
3) inflammatory multi-organ failure phase
"Beyond reasonable doubt"
It implies that any doubt remaining is not supported by reason.
So is this the same as saying that to a reasonable person there is NO doubt?
I'd definitely ask the judge that if I wasn't intimidated by the surroundings.
http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/61159/1/Picinali_Threshold lies in method.pdf
I warned days and days ago that their fifth test about avoiding all risk of a 2nd wave was ludicrous and probably meant lockdown until the end of next winter.
Now they have revised.
1) we don't know how many Eastern Europeans and others will return home.
2) we don't know what x weeks of enforced lockdown has done to relationships
3) If working from home longterm people are going to want separate office space (we would be scuppered without the empty spare bedroom for my wife).
Also while a lot of people are probably no worse off than they were before others are and that is going to make predictions impossible.
I'll stop off at the casino on my way to Dignitas before letting them rob me blind.
Well, it's that or use any one of the tax loopholes to keep it out of their hands.
If it werent for those pesky kids on PB we would've got away with it.
I reckon the purple line on slide 9 of 9 is next to get it
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1255183480859824129
The second slide from today on transport usage is interesting. It seems to be counter to a lot of the anecdotal reporting on here suggesting the lock down was crumbling. Tube and rail passenger numbers remain at 5-10% of normal so plenty of trains must be running empty or near empty - they are running on time though suggesting the real problem with the railway system is the passengers not the trains or the signals or the infrastructure - who'd have thunk it?
London bus travel passenger numbers might have risen but as journeys have been free since Monday 20th we don't know so perhaps all these lock down evaders are on the bus. Car journeys are 35-40% of normal - the A406 sounded loud today but it always does - so perhaps all those desperate to escape lock down and rush back to the joy of work are walking or car sharing or perhaps it's just an invented pile of nonsense from those trying to push for an end to the lock down - "look, it's crumbling, Boris can end it and enjoy the gratitude of the nation."
After all, we are all desperate for the lock down to end - apparently we aren't.
Boris once again worked out what his audience wanted to hear - the lock down stays for now - it might be eased a little, it might not but be patient.