politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Great polling numbers for those who got on the PB 250/1 Sunak

1st

He'll be popular until he starts cutting spending and raising taxes to pay for all of this.

At least we will be talking about this instead of people using hindsight and revoltingly trying to.pin excess deaths on the Govt.

Don't diss Priti Patel, her shoplifting is down is a meme for the ages.

One thing Mr Yorkshire Tea does well, he speaks human.

Some absolutely eye opening stuff in here e.g.

On April 15, the Washington Post reported that, in New York and Wuhan, between 14 and 30 percent of ICU patients had lost kidney function, requiring dialysis. New York hospitals were treating so much kidney failure “they need more personnel who can perform dialysis and have issued an urgent call for volunteers from other parts of the country.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/we-still-dont-know-how-the-coronavirus-is-killing-us.html

FrancisUrquhart said:

One thing Mr Yorkshire Tea does well, he speaks human.

Close your eyes and listen. He speaks both in accent and content like a Young Tony Blair.

It was a good tip. Worth trading out on now though as way too short.

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

One thing Mr Yorkshire Tea does well, he speaks human.

Close your eyes and listen. He speaks both in accent and content like a Young Tony Blair....

Yes, I have to admit that my opinion of him fell somewhat when I realised that. Pavlovian, I think.

FPT:

Pulpstar said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Comparing countries is fraught - different social aspects, different distribution of population, diferent habits, different demographics, the works. But there are a few countries where direct comparisons can be drawn.

One such was East vs West Germany - a single country split in two and subject to differing economic systems. Comparing East German and West German economic outcomes was valid.

Comparing Sweden with Belgium (or San Marino, or South Korea, or Austria, or Italy, or Ireland) is equally dodgy. But it is easily comparable with its immediate neighbours. Sweden, Denmark, and Norway have long been entangled together with shared histories - similar societies, similar distribution of people, similar languages, similar social habits. Sweden and Norway last separated in 1905.

Denmark has a border with the rest of the European masses, and is very close and entangled with Germany and the Netherlands. It also has a significantly denser population than the other two.

Swedish population is 1.906 times the population of Norway. Scaling up cumulative deaths in Norway (locked down) and Sweden (restrictions but not fully locked down), with Norwegian deaths scaled up by 1.906 times gives a useful comparison of the effects of a lockdown, with as many other confounding effects avoided.

Sweden should, ceteris paribus, be somewhere between Norway and Denmark's curve.

Indeed. Adding Denmark's curve:

FrancisUrquhart said:

One thing Mr Yorkshire Tea does well, he speaks human.

We've discussed and concluded that it is not an Indian thing as far as our experience tells, but Mrs Rata can't see Rishi Sunak without getting horribly distracted by why someone with such luxuriant hair feels the need to part it somewhere around about where Bobby Charlton and Gregor Fisher do. Any political ability he has is thus lost on her.

An interesting account of what has from the outside seemed a rather opaque strategy.
@edmundintokyo could probably say better than I how accurate it is.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/04/28/commentary/japan-commentary/covid-19-strategy-japan-model/
...So what is the Japan model? First, it is a cluster-based approach, derived from a hypothesis obtained from an epidemiological study based on Chinese data and conducted on the Diamond Princess cruise ship that entered the port of Yokohama on Feb. 3.

This hypothesis accounts for the many passengers who were not infected with the new coronavirus despite having had close contact with infected persons. It posits that the explosive increase in infected persons is a result of the high transmissibility of certain infected individuals, which forms a cluster. Infected individuals with even higher transmissibility appear from these clusters to form more clusters and infect many others.

Based on this hypothesis, under the cluster-based approach, each cluster is tracked to the original infection source and persons with high transmissibility are isolated to prevent the spread of infection. For this reason, pinpoint testing is carried out and broad testing of the population is not required, in contrast to the approaches taken in other counties.

This cluster-based approach is conditioned on an environment in which there are only a few infected persons and clusters are detectable at an early stage. In February, when the spread of infection was observed in Hokkaido, a cluster-based approach was adopted. As a result, Hokkaido was successfully able to contain its outbreak.

For the cluster-based approach to be effective, protective measures at airports and ports are important. Hokkaido has the advantage of being an island, making it comparatively easy to control the inflow of infected people.

Behavioral changes are also required. On Feb. 28, acting without legal basis, Hokkaido Gov. Naomichi Suzuki declared a state of emergency and called on residents to refrain from going outside. Residents took the call seriously, and are responsible for the success of the cluster-based approach.

Following its success in Hokkaido, the cluster-based approach was adopted nationally. On Feb. 25, a Cluster Response Team was established in the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry.

Another key to the Japan model is the social distancing method known as “the three Cs,” referring to closed spaces with poor ventilation, crowded places with many people nearby and close-contact settings such as close-range conversations...

TheScreamingEagles said:

Don't diss Priti Patel, her shoplifting is down is a meme for the ages.

What's happening to her is what happens when a minister falls out with her top civil servants

TGOHF666 said:

Hancock up again at 5.

I don’t think he’s very good but you can’t fault his work ethic. He’s been putting in one hell of a shift.

FPT:

rottenborough said:

“a clear picture is elusive, as the virus acts like no pathogen humanity has ever seen.”

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/we-still-dont-know-how-the-coronavirus-is-killing-us.html

Well worth a read.

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Don't diss Priti Patel, her shoplifting is down is a meme for the ages.

What's happening to her is what happens when a minister falls out with her top civil servants

Nah she's this incompetent even before she fell out with the civil servants.

Remember when she proved she was a national security risk and had to resign in disgrace?

If London prime property owners want a shiver of terror, let me assist:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/manhattan-homebuyers-rewriting-the-rules-on-deals-in-virus-era?sref=vuYGislZ

Mr. kinabalu, it's tokenism for someone unfit to be in the Cabinet.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kinabalu, it's tokenism for someone unfit to be in the Cabinet.

Indeed, I've had four jobs since I finished university, every one on merit because I was the best person for the job.

I'd be devastated if I had been chosen on the basis of the colour of my skin.

eadric said:

If you're a bit gloomy because of global death and the new Great Depression, cheer yourself up by remembering you're not the guy who programmed the University of Washington's covid model

https://covid19.healthdata.org

Right now it is predicting a total first wave death toll of 27,425 for Italy, by August 4th

As of today Italy is reporting 27,359 deaths.

So the University of Washington expects Italy to suffer 66 more deaths in total, over the next three months

That's positively a bullseye in comparison the Niall Ferguson's totally off the scale forecasts for some recent outbreaks.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Priti Patel is not helped by the box she stands on to see over the lectern. It looks silly. Why she could not be provided with a lower lectern is... oh, hold on, who would want to help a future leadership rival?

Van Tam uses the same box.

Doesn't do him any harm.

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

If you're a bit gloomy because of global death and the new Great Depression, cheer yourself up by remembering you're not the guy who programmed the University of Washington's covid model

https://covid19.healthdata.org

Right now it is predicting a total first wave death toll of 27,425 for Italy, by August 4th

As of today Italy is reporting 27,359 deaths.

So the University of Washington expects Italy to suffer 66 more deaths in total, over the next three months

I read up on how they came up with this model...part of the core fundamentals of it is a novel empirical formula they created themselves based solely off the Chinese data.

So hard-coded in the black box is a formula that is fundamentally flawed, so even if they adjust various inputs like the ICU capacity (that is totally wrong for the UK), when they crank the handle, part of the machinery inside will spit out absolute garbage.

The stubbornness with which they are sticking too their model is interesting.

Brings to mind this -

"—at that instant, a red arm and a hammer hovered backwardly uplifted in the open air, in the act of nailing the flag faster and yet faster to the subsiding spar. "

How far did Hancock miss his target by today?

eadric said:

If you're a bit gloomy because of global death and the new Great Depression, cheer yourself up by remembering you're not the guy who programmed the University of Washington's covid model

https://covid19.healthdata.org

Right now it is predicting a total first wave death toll of 27,425 for Italy, by August 4th

As of today Italy is reporting 27,359 deaths.

So the University of Washington expects Italy to suffer 66 more deaths in total, over the next three months

i think they've had about 6 different peak days for the UK.

On the 27th based on the announced deaths up to the 26th they predicted the 27th would have between 127 and 5000 deaths. with their most likely toll being 1250.

FrancisUrquhart said:

How far did Hancock miss his target by today?

He didn't. It's not the end of the month until Thursday. He has until Friday

Pulpstar said:

Gallowgate said:

TGOHF666 said:

Hancock up again at 5.

I don’t think he’s very good but you can’t fault his work ethic. He’s been putting in one hell of a shift.

Hancock has had far too much to do in this crisis, he ought to have delegated out the social care side of his remit entirely to AN Other minister.

Plus with him and Nadine Dorries coming down with the lurgy the DHSC definitely needed support and a change of responsibilities for the ministers.

Looks like the % of positive tests has fallen again today, even given more tests. Also, did Mr Hancock state that 1/6 of fatalities were in care homes? That's a rather smaller number than in other countries I think.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

How far did Hancock miss his target by today?

Capacity at 72,000 and looks like 100,000 capacity will not be far away by the end of the month but of course actual tests are still short

I do not think this will result in Hancock resigning

They'll be dragging people out of their sick beds to take them to a testing centre by the end of the week.

Andrew said:

Asking for it really isn't he? Again suggests they're not far away.


https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1255167329668825089

Especially as the original promise was for actual tests not capacity.

Also has the 250,000 tests per diem promise by the PM been dropped?

The small print on the last chart is really important: "Some countries, such as France and the US, count deaths resulting directly from the virus only, whilst others, such as the UK and Italy, use a wider definition of deaths of those with the virus but who potentially died of other causes. In addition, some countries, such as France, include deaths from the virus in care homes whilst others, such as Italy, report hospital deaths only."

https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1255169315608973313?s=20

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some absolutely eye opening stuff in here e.g.

On April 15, the Washington Post reported that, in New York and Wuhan, between 14 and 30 percent of ICU patients had lost kidney function, requiring dialysis. New York hospitals were treating so much kidney failure “they need more personnel who can perform dialysis and have issued an urgent call for volunteers from other parts of the country.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/we-still-dont-know-how-the-coronavirus-is-killing-us.html

Scary read.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1255169315608973313?s=20

It wouldn't be surprising if they were doing that tomorrow.

FTPT

isam said:

Alistair said:

isam said:

Alistair said:

isam said:

.

OllyT said:

Malmesbury said:

Philip_Thompson said:

OllyT said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kamski said:

TGOHF666 said:

eristdoof said:

Slackbladder said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Nigelb said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1255039029910913025?s=20

Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.

Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.

Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.

Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.

Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.

Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...

Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.

Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.

Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:

"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."

I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.

Just a musing on that...

Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.

Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.

Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850.
That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.

"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"

Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.

The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.

Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.

A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.

I've got no overlap.

Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.

I have noted a persistent theme - that all Brexiters must be Trump supporters. Despite polling that indicates virtually no-one in the UK has any time for him.

The theme is that any British Trumptons were very very likely to be Brexiteers. Lots of people pretending they never had any time for him now he has become such an embarrassment but that was not what they were saying at the time he was elected. The UK Trump-rampers that come to mind are all UKIP types - who can forget all those photos of good old Nigel fawning over him. Remind me of any prominent remainers that were Trump fans - I'm sure there must be an odd one but I can't think of any..

There are massive parallels between the reasons Brexit and Trump won,

Really? Trump got mostly the same voters as Bush, McCain and Romney. He lost the popular vote and won only because Clinton was a uniquely unpopular candidate with a terrible campaign staff who set out to prove that the Obama campaign won 'wrong'.

Brexit had a quarter of a century campaign by the highest selling newspapers in the country covering every demographic.

I think the links are pretty tenuous.

I would have thought you would

What's the evidence that Trump voters are a unique coalition of left behind, economically anxious people as opposed to people who have voted Republican at every election for the last 20 years?

It doesn't really matter. When a politician that someone has strong feelings against is succesful, the reason for that success is always a deficiency on the side of their defeated opponent/campaign.

Clinton, Corbyn, Remain...

I wasn't asking a rhetorical question. My betting strategy for November is predicated on Trump not having a unique coalition and it just being the standard Republican voter base and that Trump's win was predicated on Romney voter voting for him whilst Obama voter stayed home or went third party instead of Clinton.

Voter screens in American polls will filter out 2016 non voters which means that Clinton haters willing to vote for Biden will not show up in current polling.

But, if Trump's voter share is not just the regualr GOP voters then my betting strategy is fucked.

I think the reasons for Brexit success and Trump success are completely different and trying to equate them as some kind of anti Liberal elitist movement is mistaken.

MikeL said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I think Patel should get another chance at doing the press conference.

She fluffed something - clearly she was incredibly nervous (with some justification it seems).

She did do a 2nd press conference - and to be fair did read the numbers out correctly.

Oh, thanks! Guess it's clear from that that I rely on PB to tell me about the press conferences now!

MikeL said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I think Patel should get another chance at doing the press conference.

She fluffed something - clearly she was incredibly nervous (with some justification it seems).

She did do a 2nd press conference - and to be fair did read the numbers out correctly.

Although her attempt at empathy was even worse than mine.

SandyRentool said:

ABZ said:

The small print on the last chart is really important: "Some countries, such as France and the US, count deaths resulting directly from the virus only, whilst others, such as the UK and Italy, use a wider definition of deaths of those with the virus but who potentially died of other causes. In addition, some countries, such as France, include deaths from the virus in care homes whilst others, such as Italy, report hospital deaths only."

Total deaths versus the seasonal average is the only way to get like for like comparisons.

On that basis we are likely to be already well over 30k, and heading towards Professor Costello's 40k estimate for the first wave.

Agreed of course. But just thought it worth pointing out as people like comparing these metrics and if they are not comparable that's really important.

eadric said:

kyf_100 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

If London prime property owners want a shiver of terror, let me assist:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/manhattan-homebuyers-rewriting-the-rules-on-deals-in-virus-era?sref=vuYGislZ

Property prices will go down. The question is - by how much?

I suppose that is linked to how quickly the economy recovers. My guess is not very quickly, and not very much. So a prolonged, drawn out fall in prices akin to the mid 90s. And quite a lot of people trapped by negative equity. Then there's the question of rising interest rates on top of that.

One other factor that didn't exist in previous crashes is AirBnB properties.

If global travel is kaput for the next year or more, we could see a lot of distressed sales. The rental market will also be flooded.

All the signs are pointing towards an almighty downturn...

I wonder if this heralds the end of the era of great and lordly megacities, certainly in the West, for a while

In the last two decades New York, Shanghai, Singapore and London, and to a lesser extent Paris, Milan, Berlin, etc have all benefited - as cities - from conglomeration, and the clustering of elite wealth.

Living in a superskinny sky scraper in Manhattan, or a Docklands loft in London, now looks much less appealing. Coronavirus might return, year after year, entailing lockdown after lockdown

Even before corona, New York City was beginning to slowly depopulate (unnoticed by many) so the signs of decline started before the Plague. Now it must accelerate.

Not great for those of us sitting on London prime property, but we will survive. In the long run it will be good for kids, who will eventually return to the cities, and thus they will rise again.

The cycle spins.

"we'll always have Paris Penarth!"

Awful question from 'Nick'

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

British Airways make 12,000 staff redundant

Not even furloughed? They clearly see a long term change in our behaviour.

No - not furloughed

Big_G_NorthWales said:

British Airways make 12,000 staff redundant

Bloody hell...

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

British Airways make 12,000 staff redundant

Not even furloughed? They clearly see a long term change in our behaviour.

No - not furloughed

It is BA staff or IAG staff?

RobD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

British Airways make 12,000 staff redundant

Not even furloughed? They clearly see a long term change in our behaviour.

No - not furloughed

It is BA staff or IAG staff?

The strap line on Sky is BA but I expect it is IAG

BA redundancies imply the 3rd runway at Heathrow may no longer be needed?

Pity they can't use A320s for Tesco home deliveries...

Alistair said:

FTPT

isam said:

Alistair said:

isam said:

Alistair said:

isam said:

.

OllyT said:

Malmesbury said:

Philip_Thompson said:

OllyT said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kamski said:

TGOHF666 said:

eristdoof said:

Slackbladder said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Nigelb said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1255039029910913025?s=20

Unsurprising figure but I'm surprised as many as 7% went for Gove too - as someone who likes Gove. Shows the unreliability of polling respondents to answer the question actually asked.

Gove and Patel simply haven't done that much that's obvious compared to the others during Boris's absence. Their departments are not as key frontline as the others.

Nation likes person who gives them free stuff shock.

Nation likes person who took the risk to react quickly in what was a constructive manner. Given the usual speed of the Treasury when it comes to handing back money, it was a bloody miracle.

Compare and contrast with everyone else in government.

Note he's never once said "we're following the advice of our economists"...

Because that would be an absurd and meaningless phrase that most especially anyone who knows anything about economics would laugh at.

Why would anyone say anything so silly? There are economists for and against almost any action.

Of course, the same goes for science. As Prof Brian Cox said to Andrew Marr on Sunday:

"There’s no such thing as ‘the science’, which is a key lesson. If you hear a politician say ‘we’re following the science’, then what that means is they don’t really understand what science is. There isn’t such a thing as ‘the science’. Science is a mindset."

I wonder if that applies to campaigners on Global Warming, where 'follow the science' is also a mantra.

Just a musing on that...

Not accepting that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to the warmng of average global temperatures is not just outsider the "cloud of science" it is a hundred miles away.

Arguing that tiny trace volumes of CO2 are the only controlling factor and what the sun is up to is a disctraction seems thousands of miles away.

Increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere 285 ppm to 410 ppm since 1850.
That's a 44% increase. Saying the words "tiny trace" just makes you sound like an idiot.

"How can a tiny trace amount of botulinum toxin kill someone?"

Globally over decades the world is certainly outputting a lot of CO2.

The global atmospheric difference in CO2 between the UK going to net zero at a timescale like the government are proposing and the UK going at a timescale XR propose is a tiny trace difference.

Brexiteer= Climate change denier. What a surprise. Had enough of experts? Support Brexit and any other idiots charter that is in vogue with the pseudoscience Trumpian populist right wing.

A venn diagram of Trump fans/ Brexiteers/ climate change deniers/ end-lockdown-now advocates would show a great deal of overlap.

I've got no overlap.

Despise Trump and hopes he loses, want climate change tackling sensibly, think the lockdown needs to be ended when the time is right but not yet and Brexiteer. So one of your 4.

I have noted a persistent theme - that all Brexiters must be Trump supporters. Despite polling that indicates virtually no-one in the UK has any time for him.

The theme is that any British Trumptons were very very likely to be Brexiteers. Lots of people pretending they never had any time for him now he has become such an embarrassment but that was not what they were saying at the time he was elected. The UK Trump-rampers that come to mind are all UKIP types - who can forget all those photos of good old Nigel fawning over him. Remind me of any prominent remainers that were Trump fans - I'm sure there must be an odd one but I can't think of any..

There are massive parallels between the reasons Brexit and Trump won,

Really? Trump got mostly the same voters as Bush, McCain and Romney. He lost the popular vote and won only because Clinton was a uniquely unpopular candidate with a terrible campaign staff who set out to prove that the Obama campaign won 'wrong'.

Brexit had a quarter of a century campaign by the highest selling newspapers in the country covering every demographic.

I think the links are pretty tenuous.

I would have thought you would

What's the evidence that Trump voters are a unique coalition of left behind, economically anxious people as opposed to people who have voted Republican at every election for the last 20 years?

It doesn't really matter. When a politician that someone has strong feelings against is succesful, the reason for that success is always a deficiency on the side of their defeated opponent/campaign.

Clinton, Corbyn, Remain...

I wasn't asking a rhetorical question. My betting strategy for November is predicated on Trump not having a unique coalition and it just being the standard Republican voter base and that Trump's win was predicated on Romney voter voting for him whilst Obama voter stayed home or went third party instead of Clinton.

Voter screens in American polls will filter out 2016 non voters which means that Clinton haters willing to vote for Biden will not show up in current polling.

But, if Trump's voter share is not just the regualr GOP voters then my betting strategy is fucked.

I think the reasons for Brexit success and Trump success are completely different and trying to equate them as some kind of anti Liberal elitist movement is mistaken.

I’ve barely thought about it, just seems that way to me. Maybe you’re right

TGOHF666 said:

Not sure these public questions are any improvement TBF.

The first one was pretty good. Given that social distancing must remain, the truth is that grandparents would be put in the firing line if parents have to go back to work. Schools will not be able to take all students at one time so for at least half of the week who minds the kids? Yep, the grandparents, who are then mixing with those who have been into contact with many others who may have become infected without showing symptoms.

This is why the Pavlovian 'schools open' response is so misplaced. What schools can do is assist in what else is happening, as they are now. What they cannot do is lead to an improved economy or keep the country safe. Either parents must stay home half of the time and not work or grandparents/others outside their social bubble must mind the kids, thus increasing transmission. Schools may be able to facilitate some other measure but otherwise opening them is an empty gesture. The question really should be something like - 'small shops can be reopened because of the possibility of their keeping social distancing and to help them survive. Will they be added to the key workers list so that schools have them in situ rather than have them learning online?' That moves things on.