politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Conducting elections with the great unwashed during and after
Comments
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This. 100x. It is a open goal for the conspiracy whackos who will use social media to destroy remaining faith the public have in democracy.Richard_Tyndall said:On topic I am afraid electronic voting is a complete non starter. We know it is not secure or foolproof and if we think we are worried about Russian interference in our elections now it will be as nothing compared to what it will be like with electronic voting. No one will trust the results and all faith in democracy will be destroyed.
We must resist its introduction under the radar of the plague at all costs.4 -
737MAX.Alistair said:
Yeah, saying that so shortly after the 787MAX debacle isn't as great an argument as it once was.kinabalu said:
We trust computers to move billions and fly planes.kyf_100 said:
Yes, I'm aware of that. And if it were possible, I'd do away with postal voting and make each person present themselves at a polling booth with photo ID, unless they had a medical reason to apply for a postal vote.Pagan2 said:
All of the voting scandals of recent times have been related to postal voting. Such things as the head of the household or community leaders collecting ballot papers and filling them or one bedroom flats which apparently have 21 people registered to vote living there.kyf_100 said:
I'm struggling to understand what is wrong with postal voting. Your vote is delivered to you by the mailman, you walk it 100 yards (or drive 500) to the postbox, stick it in the post, no contact. It is then delivered to the place where it is counted, where social distancing can be observed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I agree but we are where we are.Morris_Dancer said:Online voting is the work of Satan.
Would you go out and vote if you and your family might get a deadly virus?
It is also quite hard for the Russians to interfere with. Online voting, on the other hand...
However, postal voting already happens. It is widespread, known and, while flawed, is considerably better than online voting during a pandemic (or any other time).
A really dedicated postal-vote-rigger might try granny farming or forge a few signatures. But at best they might be able to influence a small number of votes. And there is a literal paper trail to investigate.
A hacker gaining control of an online system has the potential to change 100% of the votes in their favour, and if they do it correctly, to do it without anyone ever being able to prove the election has been rigged.
Online voting will ALWAYS be subject to questioning about its integrity. Because the security is is too complex for the lay person to understand. Think about all the hoo-hah about Russian influence on Brexit. Now imagine a knife edge vote like that, if it could never be proven that the vote was hacked. It is a recipe for calling into question the legitimacy of every vote you disagree with. For that reason alone, it should never, ever be allowed to happen.
Also there is still a staring amount of human reconciliation in large scale money transfer.
The 787 Dreamliner is one of Boeing's most successful products.0 -
Mortality of nearly 90% for people requiring ventilation in New York.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/861010 -
Shit that is awful.williamglenn said:Mortality of nearly 90% for people requiring ventilation in New York.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/861010 -
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% positives in admitted patients dropping like that is quite a positive sign.ABZ said:
Perhaps surprisingly, the % positives of those tested because they are admitted to hospital (Pillar I) is 18.6% today and Pillar II (essential workers) was 16.0%, so quite similar. The Pillar I numbers were dominating the data until recently so even given the increased testing of essential workers, the % does still seem to be decreasing like-for-like.MikeL said:
Fair(ish!) point - remember you do have to have symptoms to get a test.RobD said:
I'd argue that the positive percentage is meaningless, especially as they now want everyone and their mother to get a test, regardless of whether it is useful in a clinical sense.MikeL said:
Thanks - numbers now updated!FrancisUrquhart said:
They announced them at the start of the press conference. 29,xxx tests.MikeL said:Yesterday's complete numbers still not released?
No tweet from DHSC.
Gov.uk website not updated.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases-and-deaths
There is bugger all sign they are going to get even remotely close to 100,000. The media are going to roast Hancock in the way your average Tory does to those babies.
Tests 29,058
People tested 25,577
Positive 4,463
That means % positive = 17.4% which I think is probably the lowest so far by quite a wide margin.
All data today very encouraging - in particular this and number in hospital.
Pretty clear going strongly in right direction.
So yes, you would expect % to come down as more people are tested but it's still encouraging it's coming down as much as it is.
I suspect a lot of lockdown changes will end after May day Bank Holiday. Music, football, not for a bit.
Recovering the non covid work is going to be tricky. A lot will be at half speed because of social distancing and enhanced cleaning and PPE. Some areas like ENT will be a nightmare.0 -
Given the next elections in the UK are not until next May (a bumper round now of county, district, London Mayoral and Assembly and Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly elections) hopefully by then Covid will be under control or a vaccine found.RochdalePioneers said:Great thread TSE. Knocking on doors with the land army that winning campaigns are built on won't be a feature of next year's on time / delayed elections. Which forces party hacks to find new ways of reaching punters, and once they crack that the need to go door to door won't be something that will be voluntarily brought back. The solution will indeed be digital.
And the count? I do hope they retain some of its theatre - there is something truly special about the process we have now, however manual and outdated it may be. I can see how a digital platform could work - a website and an app, with a government tax break to get even the oldest / refusiest a device to participate on.
Either way I suspect we will certainly still be leafleting as usual, canvassing might be more difficult but if so will just likely be telephone canvassing instead.
Online messages and advertising will play a part as they increasingly are anyway but are still no substitute for canvassing and identifying your core vote who you need to turn out on polling day and undecideds.
An all postal ballot is a possibility1 -
When i used to smoke, i seem to recall that sobranie black were pretty strong.1
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The answer to the goalkeeper question is Pat Jennings.0
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Although didn’t they get taken out of service due to some problem?Sunil_Prasannan said:
737MAX.Alistair said:
Yeah, saying that so shortly after the 787MAX debacle isn't as great an argument as it once was.kinabalu said:
We trust computers to move billions and fly planes.kyf_100 said:
Yes, I'm aware of that. And if it were possible, I'd do away with postal voting and make each person present themselves at a polling booth with photo ID, unless they had a medical reason to apply for a postal vote.Pagan2 said:
All of the voting scandals of recent times have been related to postal voting. Such things as the head of the household or community leaders collecting ballot papers and filling them or one bedroom flats which apparently have 21 people registered to vote living there.kyf_100 said:
I'm struggling to understand what is wrong with postal voting. Your vote is delivered to you by the mailman, you walk it 100 yards (or drive 500) to the postbox, stick it in the post, no contact. It is then delivered to the place where it is counted, where social distancing can be observed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I agree but we are where we are.Morris_Dancer said:Online voting is the work of Satan.
Would you go out and vote if you and your family might get a deadly virus?
It is also quite hard for the Russians to interfere with. Online voting, on the other hand...
However, postal voting already happens. It is widespread, known and, while flawed, is considerably better than online voting during a pandemic (or any other time).
A really dedicated postal-vote-rigger might try granny farming or forge a few signatures. But at best they might be able to influence a small number of votes. And there is a literal paper trail to investigate.
A hacker gaining control of an online system has the potential to change 100% of the votes in their favour, and if they do it correctly, to do it without anyone ever being able to prove the election has been rigged.
Online voting will ALWAYS be subject to questioning about its integrity. Because the security is is too complex for the lay person to understand. Think about all the hoo-hah about Russian influence on Brexit. Now imagine a knife edge vote like that, if it could never be proven that the vote was hacked. It is a recipe for calling into question the legitimacy of every vote you disagree with. For that reason alone, it should never, ever be allowed to happen.
Also there is still a staring amount of human reconciliation in large scale money transfer.
The 787 Dreamliner is one of Boeing's most successful products.0 -
IIRC the Dutch recently ditched electronic voting after deciding the risks of interference from countries like Russia was too great.2
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That is way higher than the UK. 50/50 here.williamglenn said:Mortality of nearly 90% for people requiring ventilation in New York.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86101
It might reflect who gets put on a ventilator in the first place though.
https://twitter.com/ICNARC/status/1253755413104910337?s=19
Looking at the NTC paper, the demographic parameters weren't obviously different to the UK.0 -
Andy_JS said:
IIRC the Dutch recently ditched electronic voting after deciding the risks of interference from countries like Russia was too great.
Only if they mention Labour or UKIP on them...Socky said:
Are you sure leaflets can't harbour germs?HYUFD said:Either way I suspect we will certainly still be leafleting as usual
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In theory it doesn't take much to disrupt an online vote. It has little to do with hacking or cryptography, you don't need to attack the voting system itself — that's too obvious — the security of the voting system is really a red herring. Instead clobber a major DNS server, or BGP server, on the day of the vote, and you can stop millions from voting*. Chunks of internet traffic are regularly hijacked by attacks like that.kinabalu said:We trust computers to move billions and fly planes.
You don't have to change votes if you can change the electorate.
In computing circles the only people who think online voting is a good idea are the people trying to sell online voting systems.
* In reality nation-state attackers would likely want much more fine-grained attacks to selectively supress the voting amongst different populations in different seats. They'd also employ many different attacks of different scale simultaneously. The idea being to change the outcome with as little interference as is necessary, in a way that is also plausibly deniable.1 -
Perhaps not the explanation here but the harder you try to save people this way the worse your success rate will be.williamglenn said:Mortality of nearly 90% for people requiring ventilation in New York.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86101
Conversely if you do not ventilate those with little chance your % mortality rate on ventilation will be much lower than if you did.1 -
The only player liked at both ends of the Seven Sisters Road?SouthamObserver said:The answer to the goalkeeper question is Pat Jennings.
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The average ago on ventilation in the NYC paper was 68, vs 59 in UK, so a bit older(63 was the average age of all admissions) The co morbidity don't look massively different either. Only 14.5% of their admissions were in ICU. In the UK 20-25% is more typical, so possibly we are more interventionist.kinabalu said:
Perhaps not the explanation here but the harder you try to save people this way the lower your success rate will be.williamglenn said:Mortality of nearly 90% for people requiring ventilation in New York.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86101
Conversely if you do not ventilate those with little chance your % mortality rate on ventilation will be much lower than if you did.0 -
TBH I do not like the idea at all. But I assumed we would be adopting it at some point fairly soon - perhaps when all voters are computer literate - because of its many obvious advantages. Everything is going digital so why not voting? But OK based on posts here from people with far more IT nous than me it sounds like a non starter.glw said:
In theory it doesn't take much to disrupt an online vote. It has little to do with hacking or cryptography, you don't need to attack the voting system itself — that's too obvious — the security of the voting system is really a red herring. Instead clobber a major DNS server, or BGP server, on the day of the vote, and you can stop millions from voting*. Chunks of internet traffic are regularly hijacked by attacks like that.kinabalu said:We trust computers to move billions and fly planes.
You don't have to change votes if you can change the electorate.
In computing circles the only people who think online voting is a good idea are the people trying to sell online voting systems.
* In reality nation-state attackers would likely want much more fine-grained attacks to selectively supress the voting amongst different populations in different seats. They'd also employ many different attacks of different scale simultaneously. The idea being to change the outcome with as little interference as is necessary, in a way that is also plausibly deniable.0 -
Good stuff. Only route to globally comparable data imo.TheScreamingEagles said:
twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1254460368300249089?s=21
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Couldn't you just store a digital signature with each vote?kyf_100 said:A hacker gaining control of an online system has the potential to change 100% of the votes in their favour, and if they do it correctly, to do it without anyone ever being able to prove the election has been rigged.
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An important point in the article. Excess unexplained deaths are in areas with high rates of covid-19 deaths as well, not in areas under lockdown with low rates. This would point to deaths being unrecognised Covid-19 rather than unrelated causes in lockdown.TheScreamingEagles said:2 -
If you really want an answer to that then you will need to put an FOI into PHE.JohnLilburne said:
Indeed. What steps were care homes taking in early March to protect their residents? They must all have an infectious disease protocol... don't they? After all a bad flu year comes round every few years. Or is the tacit assumption that elderly care is just a form of palliative care for the not *yet* dyingtlg86 said:
Whilst I agree that more care should be taken, what percentage of infected care homes do you think have been infected in this way?Pulpstar said:
Of all the failings that's probably the worst. Simply no excuse not to test every patient being discharged from hospital heading to a care home.isam said:28 mins in, care homes pressured into taking covid-19 patients from hospitals
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000h2pc
They were doing stuff like cohort nursing and isolation as far as possible in their facilities.
Remember that all the heavyweight lobbying groups belong to the NHS pros not the Care Home Pros and they were all hammering away about the NHS. So the Care Homes got pushed away from the table.
That divide is one that will need to be addressed. Even the Minute Silence was initially suggested for NHS staff not Care Home and Community care staff.
NHS religion needs to be confronted.0 -
Schools going back will be the nightmare for me. My wife is on the shielding list, so when schools go back either we withhold our child from school or my child doesn't get to see her mum for however long the shielding is in place.0
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Yes, for the time being. Would it be fair to say that any negative impacts on mortality due to the lockdown are likely to be delayed?Foxy said:
An important point in the article. Excess unexplained deaths are in areas with high rates of covid-19 deaths as well, not in areas under lockdown with low rates. This would point to deaths being unrecognised Covid-19 rather than unrelated causes in lockdown.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
68 v 59 sounds like quite a big difference. So perhaps that could mean they are ventilating more older and weaker patients than we are?Foxy said:
The average ago on ventilation in the NYC paper was 68, vs 59 in UK, so a bit older(63 was the average age of all admissions) The co morbidity don't look massively different either. Only 14.5% of their admissions were in ICU. In the UK 20-25% is more typical, so possibly we are more interventionist.kinabalu said:
Perhaps not the explanation here but the harder you try to save people this way the lower your success rate will be.williamglenn said:Mortality of nearly 90% for people requiring ventilation in New York.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86101
Conversely if you do not ventilate those with little chance your % mortality rate on ventilation will be much lower than if you did.
Or does this not really follow?0 -
That just seems unacceptable either way.Alistair said:Schools going back will be the nightmare for me. My wife is on the shielding list, so when schools go back either we withhold our child from school or my child doesn't get to see her mum for however long the shielding is in place.
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It would be mortality of 100% if they were not on a ventilator as only those worst affected by Covid get to that stage anywaywilliamglenn said:Mortality of nearly 90% for people requiring ventilation in New York.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/861010 -
Almost as good as "Aberdeenshire business owner wins presidency"williamglenn said:
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Yes, the idea there is some need for a mass change is ridiculous, particularly with the other concerns that exist.Mortimer said:Voting will largely stay the same - at worst, with an in person vote, its no different to going to the supermarket and needs to be done very infrequently.
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Richard_Tyndall said:
On topic I am afraid electronic voting is a complete non starter. We know it is not secure or foolproof and if we think we are worried about Russian interference in our elections now it will be as nothing compared to what it will be like with electronic voting. No one will trust the results and all faith in democracy will be destroyed.
kinabalu said:
We trust computers to move billions and fly planes.kyf_100 said:
Yes, I'm aware of that. And if it were possible, I'd do away with postal voting and make each person present themselves at a polling booth with photo ID, unless they had a medical reason to apply for a postal vote.Pagan2 said:
All of the voting scandals of recent times have been related to postal voting. Such things as the head of the household or community leaders collecting ballot papers and filling them or one bedroom flats which apparently have 21 people registered to vote living there.kyf_100 said:
I'm struggling to understand what is wrong with postal voting. Your vote is delivered to you by the mailman, you walk it 100 yards (or drive 500) to the postbox, stick it in the post, no contact. It is then delivered to the place where it is counted, where social distancing can be observed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I agree but we are where we are.Morris_Dancer said:Online voting is the work of Satan.
Would you go out and vote if you and your family might get a deadly virus?
It is also quite hard for the Russians to interfere with. Online voting, on the other hand...
However, postal voting already happens. It is widespread, known and, while flawed, is considerably better than online voting during a pandemic (or any other time).
A really dedicated postal-vote-rigger might try granny farming or forge a few signatures. But at best they might be able to influence a small number of votes. And there is a literal paper trail to investigate.
A hacker gaining control of an online system has the potential to change 100% of the votes in their favour, and if they do it correctly, to do it without anyone ever being able to prove the election has been rigged.
Online voting will ALWAYS be subject to questioning about its integrity. Because the security is is too complex for the lay person to understand. Think about all the hoo-hah about Russian influence on Brexit. Now imagine a knife edge vote like that, if it could never be proven that the vote was hacked. It is a recipe for calling into question the legitimacy of every vote you disagree with. For that reason alone, it should never, ever be allowed to happen.
There seems to be a misunderstanding between electronic voting and online voting.
Electronic voting is done in person at a polling station. While it still has it's problems, there chances of an outside attack is virtually nil if done properly. Online voting is as secure as Grandma Betti's Wifi.
Don't forget there are also problems with paper voting. In 1987 a ballot box was declared void, because someone dropped a lit ballot paper into it and burnt most of the contents.2 -
I saw an interesting figure on cancers, that new diagnoses were down by 85% nationally (I didn't catch the period in question). That is a worrying stat.tlg86 said:
Yes, for the time being. Would it be fair to say that any negative impacts on mortality due to the lockdown are likely to be delayed?Foxy said:
An important point in the article. Excess unexplained deaths are in areas with high rates of covid-19 deaths as well, not in areas under lockdown with low rates. This would point to deaths being unrecognised Covid-19 rather than unrelated causes in lockdown.TheScreamingEagles said:
It does start to get complicated though, several colleagues have told me of seeing Covid-19 presenting as vascular disease, from clotting disturbances.1 -
Bat curry for dinner anybody?
www.thesun.co.uk/news/11484229/shocking-pictures-wet-market-still-open-coronavirus0 -
My day job is to predict future problems before they happen, ideally to eliminate them or minimise them before they happen.kle4 said:
Yes, the idea there is some need for a mass change is ridiculous, particularly with the other concerns that exist.Mortimer said:Voting will largely stay the same - at worst, with an in person vote, its no different to going to the supermarket and needs to be done very infrequently.
From the day job we've highlighted future electoral events and their delivery as huge risk to the system.
I'm just glad the French Presidential election is in 2022.
America on the other hand, my biggest fear is the 79 days from election day to inauguration. Were Trump to lose he might cause havoc.0 -
So glad you didn't call it tea.FrancisUrquhart said:Bat curry for dinner anybody?
www.thesun.co.uk/news/11484229/shocking-pictures-wet-market-still-open-coronavirus1 -
Evening all
I think @HYUFD has it about right on the politics. I find it inconceivable some form of personal voter contact (canvass) won't happen and leaflets will still be delivered. The online side will continue to evolve - I recall in the local elections last year one of the independent anti-development plans that won seats on Guildford BC had a very strong online presence.
As a complete aside, has air pollution been factored into the spread of the coronavirus? I've been looking at PM2.5 levels and they have collapsed across Britain with the lockdown - it just occurs to me cities with poor air quality might be the ones where the virus can more readily be transmitted if it can interact with particulates at the sub-micron level.
By improving air quality through reducing vehicle emissions and other industrial emissions we've helped give the virus less ammunition with which to work alongside social distancing.1 -
US Box office :
Domestic Box Office For Apr 23, 2020
1 Resistance $705
2 Swallow $7051 -
Crikey, this time last year the most successful film of all time was being released.Pulpstar said:US Box office :
Domestic Box Office For Apr 23, 2020
1 Resistance $705
2 Swallow $7050 -
Their residents are almost entirely those required to self isolate. So completely lock down and staff sleep on the premises, seems the obvious and only option.MattW said:
If you really want an answer to that then you will need to put an FOI into PHE.JohnLilburne said:
Indeed. What steps were care homes taking in early March to protect their residents? They must all have an infectious disease protocol... don't they? After all a bad flu year comes round every few years. Or is the tacit assumption that elderly care is just a form of palliative care for the not *yet* dyingtlg86 said:
Whilst I agree that more care should be taken, what percentage of infected care homes do you think have been infected in this way?Pulpstar said:
Of all the failings that's probably the worst. Simply no excuse not to test every patient being discharged from hospital heading to a care home.isam said:28 mins in, care homes pressured into taking covid-19 patients from hospitals
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000h2pc
They were doing stuff like cohort nursing and isolation as far as possible in their facilities.
Remember that all the heavyweight lobbying groups belong to the NHS pros not the Care Home Pros and they were all hammering away about the NHS. So the Care Homes got pushed away from the table.
That divide is one that will need to be addressed. Even the Minute Silence was initially suggested for NHS staff not Care Home and Community care staff.
NHS religion needs to be confronted.0 -
It is, unfortunately, perfectly logical.kinabalu said:
That just seems unacceptable either way.Alistair said:Schools going back will be the nightmare for me. My wife is on the shielding list, so when schools go back either we withhold our child from school or my child doesn't get to see her mum for however long the shielding is in place.
But given the haphazard way the lock down was implemented I'm dreading a real drips and drabs approach to reopening where schools reopen early in the process before shielding is lifted.
We'd already taken our child out of school a week and a half before schools were closed.1 -
I'm guessing those receipts are from private cinemas perhaps.TheScreamingEagles said:
Crikey, this time last year the most successful film of all time was being released.Pulpstar said:US Box office :
Domestic Box Office For Apr 23, 2020
1 Resistance $705
2 Swallow $7050 -
Keep your kids out I reckon, ask for the learning material to be sent remotely.Alistair said:
It is, unfortunately, perfectly logical.kinabalu said:
That just seems unacceptable either way.Alistair said:Schools going back will be the nightmare for me. My wife is on the shielding list, so when schools go back either we withhold our child from school or my child doesn't get to see her mum for however long the shielding is in place.
But given the haphazard way the lock down was implemented I'm dreading a real drips and drabs approach to reopening where schools reopen early in the process before shielding is lifted.
We'd already taken our child out of school a week and a half before schools were closed.0 -
I did see something about some drive through cinemas opening back up in America.Pulpstar said:
I'm guessing those receipts are from private cinemas perhaps.TheScreamingEagles said:
Crikey, this time last year the most successful film of all time was being released.Pulpstar said:US Box office :
Domestic Box Office For Apr 23, 2020
1 Resistance $705
2 Swallow $7050 -
UK universities are a success story: they need help now
Even Margaret Thatcher saw that letting institutions go bust was a bad idea.
https://www.ft.com/content/29c0ea56-854f-11ea-b6e9-a94cffd1d9bf0 -
A couple of hours gardening, then salmon, new potatoes and leeks followed by home made apple crumble.
Not such a bad day.1 -
Boris just ziplined his way back into downing Street.0
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Good old two brains.TheScreamingEagles said:UK universities are a success story: they need help now
Even Margaret Thatcher saw that letting institutions go bust was a bad idea.
https://www.ft.com/content/29c0ea56-854f-11ea-b6e9-a94cffd1d9bf0 -
If Coronavirus is a permanent thing, then we should just accept it's an occupational hazard. We should not shut down our social system over it.
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That’s a nice unfussy combo.SandyRentool said:A couple of hours gardening, then salmon, new potatoes and leeks followed by home made apple crumble.
Not such a bad day.1 -
Re air pollution, Bristol was supposed to be one of the cities which had to reduce emissions or face more fines, at time of typing 571 CV19 patients.stodge said:Evening all
I think @HYUFD has it about right on the politics. I find it inconceivable some form of personal voter contact (canvass) won't happen and leaflets will still be delivered. The online side will continue to evolve - I recall in the local elections last year one of the independent anti-development plans that won seats on Guildford BC had a very strong online presence.
As a complete aside, has air pollution been factored into the spread of the coronavirus? I've been looking at PM2.5 levels and they have collapsed across Britain with the lockdown - it just occurs to me cities with poor air quality might be the ones where the virus can more readily be transmitted if it can interact with particulates at the sub-micron level.
By improving air quality through reducing vehicle emissions and other industrial emissions we've helped give the virus less ammunition with which to work alongside social distancing.
It will be interesting to see if pollution hot spots in cities match, or do not match hot spots of CV19.
0 -
The question is the value of some universities. Should we prop up failing organisations?TheScreamingEagles said:UK universities are a success story: they need help now
Even Margaret Thatcher saw that letting institutions go bust was a bad idea.
https://www.ft.com/content/29c0ea56-854f-11ea-b6e9-a94cffd1d9bf1 -
Some village-Hampden, that with dauntless breastwilliamglenn said:
The little tyrant {} withstood;2 -
I agree re Trump. I see him losing at the polls but I do not expect him to leave office without the need for unprecedented measures.TheScreamingEagles said:
My day job is to predict future problems before they happen, ideally to eliminate them or minimise them before they happen.kle4 said:
Yes, the idea there is some need for a mass change is ridiculous, particularly with the other concerns that exist.Mortimer said:Voting will largely stay the same - at worst, with an in person vote, its no different to going to the supermarket and needs to be done very infrequently.
From the day job we've highlighted future electoral events and their delivery as huge risk to the system.
I'm just glad the French Presidential election is in 2022.
America on the other hand, my biggest fear is the 79 days from election day to inauguration. Were Trump to lose he might cause havoc.0 -
Captain Tom just 987k short of £30m
Wouldnt it be a fantastic birthday present if he hit that incredible milestone1 -
Me too!Pulpstar said:
We are part of the elite 1.5% of registered supporters for Liz0 -
Another problem with electronic voting is that recounts are impossible. If someone wins by one vote and you ask the computer to check it, it'll just give you exactly the same result again, by definition. That may be logical but it isn't reassuring.0
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I have voted online in many university elections.0
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Bristol has about the lowest covid rate in the UK.dr_spyn said:
Re air pollution, Bristol was supposed to be one of the cities which had to reduce emissions or face more fines, at time of typing 571 CV19 patients.stodge said:Evening all
I think @HYUFD has it about right on the politics. I find it inconceivable some form of personal voter contact (canvass) won't happen and leaflets will still be delivered. The online side will continue to evolve - I recall in the local elections last year one of the independent anti-development plans that won seats on Guildford BC had a very strong online presence.
As a complete aside, has air pollution been factored into the spread of the coronavirus? I've been looking at PM2.5 levels and they have collapsed across Britain with the lockdown - it just occurs to me cities with poor air quality might be the ones where the virus can more readily be transmitted if it can interact with particulates at the sub-micron level.
By improving air quality through reducing vehicle emissions and other industrial emissions we've helped give the virus less ammunition with which to work alongside social distancing.
It will be interesting to see if pollution hot spots in cities match, or do not match hot spots of CV19.
Leicester is the lowest rate for a big city in the Midlands, but the air quality is usually quite poor the City is in a shallow bowl of hills with minimal prevailing winds as so far from the coast. Its not obvious why Derby and Coventry have twice the rate. On the other hand some fairly rural Home Counties have high rates.
To me anywhere with major commuting by public transport has high rates, spreading out to the dormitory towns.0 -
52/43 in 2016HYUFD said:0 -
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"Let me put it this way, Mr. Amor. The 9000 series is the most reliable computer ever made. No 9000 computer has ever made a mistake or distorted information. We are all, by any practical definition of the words, foolproof and incapable of error."Andy_JS said:Another problem with electronic voting is that recounts are impossible. If someone wins by one vote and you ask the computer to check it, it'll just give you exactly the same result again, by definition. That may be logical but it isn't reassuring.
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Yep, I voted Kendall. Good to have her back on the front bench, with the Social Care brief.bigjohnowls said:0 -
Roast beef, lyonese potatoes and veg here, followed by chocolate cake.kinabalu said:
That’s a nice unfussy combo.SandyRentool said:A couple of hours gardening, then salmon, new potatoes and leeks followed by home made apple crumble.
Not such a bad day.
The one upside of lockdown is my cookery skills have gone from greasy spoon to gastropub.0 -
Correcting myself: 2.4% of registered supporters. 2,574 people. Heroes.bigjohnowls said:
THERE ARE DOZENS OF US!1 -
Only 8Foxy said:
Yep, 8 voted Kendall. Good to have her back on the front bench, with the Social Care brief.bigjohnowls said:0 -
We are around a week from decisions being firmed up for government regarding next steps. From all the stories it appears that the decision will not be a an exact continuation of all the measures in place now. Its all going to be a risk and no matter what they do, someone is going to say its wrong and of course there will be evidence its wrong because we have been reminded, science isn't just facts its opinions. Take Sweden, who despite the calls by some that they have ballsed it with a fairly liberal approach, we don't know, its too early to tell. If we look at the death and case rate as a proportion of the population its neither brilliant nor the most terrible and ultimately Swedes will have to decide if that is a worthy trade off.
If here in NI is anything to by there are plenty of businesses that went into hibernation who were not necessarily being forced to do so. It will be interesting to see how such businesses are going to be addressed and how they are going to address things themselves. Its one thing getting the go ahead to start up again but another if your market isn't in the same position.
On another note, Where's Kim Jong Un? Speculation carries on with some of the latest stories from press agencies reportedly being attributed to Chinese officials. Certainly the picture is getting a bit darker. One thing is for sure, something is up. Whether the guy is dead, very ill or just taking longer to heal up after some kind of bunion surgery. Like all good cult of personality dictatorships the leader is omnipresent but now he isn't.
There appears to be credible talk that his train is up at his retreat in Wonsan though Kim tends to fly to and from there. If the Chinese have a good picture, perhaps the thing to watch for is whether the Chinese military start reinforcing their presence near the borders . Any number of reasons for that from precaution right through to being ready to address issues of instability within North Korea. No stories of that kind of build up have yet been made public.
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That must be a horrible thought.Alistair said:Schools going back will be the nightmare for me. My wife is on the shielding list, so when schools go back either we withhold our child from school or my child doesn't get to see her mum for however long the shielding is in place.
That said, I just don't see it happening before September.
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The problem is when letting the disease spread freely the disease can "shut the system down" itself. Each active doctor or nurse taken out by the disease is a waste and shock to the economy, that is true for most people who work, and others who provide valuable unpaid support to society too, it's just not so obvious. When it gets out of control then consequences are worse than a lockdown.Sean_F said:If Coronavirus is a permanent thing, then we should just accept it's an occupational hazard. We should not shut down our social system over it.
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The logic that our erstwhile @contrarian is unable to follow.eristdoof said:
The problem is when letting the disease spread freely the disease can "shut the system down" itself. Each active doctor or nurse taken out by the disease is a waste and shock to the economy, that is true for most people who work, and others who provide valuable unpaid support to society too, it's just not so obvious. When it gets out of control then consequences are worse than a lockdown.Sean_F said:If Coronavirus is a permanent thing, then we should just accept it's an occupational hazard. We should not shut down our social system over it.
The economy is destroyed by exponential viral spread far more than it is by lockdown.0 -
Um, some vegetarian bat-substitute for me, pleaseFrancisUrquhart said:Bat curry for dinner anybody?
www.thesun.co.uk/news/11484229/shocking-pictures-wet-market-still-open-coronavirus 1 -
But there are very few good puns you can make about Aberdeenshire.RobD said:
Meanwhile, we can say that the Daily Post is having a good Môn about Kim.0 -
Absolutely not. The sooner Gloucestershire, Cumbria and Oxford are let go the better.Malmesbury said:
The question is the value of some universities. Should we prop up failing organisations?TheScreamingEagles said:UK universities are a success story: they need help now
Even Margaret Thatcher saw that letting institutions go bust was a bad idea.
https://www.ft.com/content/29c0ea56-854f-11ea-b6e9-a94cffd1d9bf0 -
I agree. July is a remote possibility but unless these ‘social distancing’ rules are relaxed schools simply can’t go back. The classrooms are too small as it is.Mortimer said:
That must be a horrible thought.Alistair said:Schools going back will be the nightmare for me. My wife is on the shielding list, so when schools go back either we withhold our child from school or my child doesn't get to see her mum for however long the shielding is in place.
That said, I just don't see it happening before September.0 -
I think that when lockdown ends, a lot of businesses are going to be struggling to find customers. Anything travel related, hospitality based, sporting and musical events etc. A 14 quarantine on foreign travel is a bullet between the eyes for the airline industry.Mortimer said:
The logic that our erstwhile @contrarian is unable to follow.eristdoof said:
The problem is when letting the disease spread freely the disease can "shut the system down" itself. Each active doctor or nurse taken out by the disease is a waste and shock to the economy, that is true for most people who work, and others who provide valuable unpaid support to society too, it's just not so obvious. When it gets out of control then consequences are worse than a lockdown.Sean_F said:If Coronavirus is a permanent thing, then we should just accept it's an occupational hazard. We should not shut down our social system over it.
The economy is destroyed by exponential viral spread far more than it is by lockdown.
Until I have confirmed antibodies, I am not eating in a restaurant, going to the theatre or to a concert.
Its going to be a long time for those sectors to recover, and many individual businesses never will.0 -
The Kim is dead - long live the Kim?ydoethur said:
But there are very few good puns you can make about Aberdeenshire.RobD said:
Meanwhile, we can say that the Daily Post is having a good Môn about Kim.2 -
I think there is definitely a generation gap, literally all of my friends can't wait to get back to the pub.Foxy said:
I think that when lockdown ends, a lot of businesses are going to be struggling to find customers. Anything travel related, hospitality based, sporting and musical events etc. A 14 quarantine on foreign travel is a bullet between the eyes for the airline industry.Mortimer said:
The logic that our erstwhile @contrarian is unable to follow.eristdoof said:
The problem is when letting the disease spread freely the disease can "shut the system down" itself. Each active doctor or nurse taken out by the disease is a waste and shock to the economy, that is true for most people who work, and others who provide valuable unpaid support to society too, it's just not so obvious. When it gets out of control then consequences are worse than a lockdown.Sean_F said:If Coronavirus is a permanent thing, then we should just accept it's an occupational hazard. We should not shut down our social system over it.
The economy is destroyed by exponential viral spread far more than it is by lockdown.
Until I have confirmed antibodies, I am not eating in a restaurant, going to the theatre or to a concert.1 -
This depends on what te source of error is to require a recount in the first place.Andy_JS said:Another problem with electronic voting is that recounts are impossible. If someone wins by one vote and you ask the computer to check it, it'll just give you exactly the same result again, by definition. That may be logical but it isn't reassuring.
In the UK there are two main reasons to hold a recount. The first is the inevitable human miscounting, and the second is to reconsider technically spoiled votes and count them if it is actually clear such as a cross where one part strays into another box.
The first of those is simply not present with electronic voting.
The second will also be eliminated if the voter has to press a button and then confirm their choice.
In short, the two main reasons for a recount disappear with sensible voting software/hardware.0 -
When lockdown ends, social distancing does too. Our waiting areas and wards simply do not allow normal throughput at those sort of rates.ydoethur said:
I agree. July is a remote possibility but unless these ‘social distancing’ rules are relaxed schools simply can’t go back. The classrooms are too small as it is.Mortimer said:
That must be a horrible thought.Alistair said:Schools going back will be the nightmare for me. My wife is on the shielding list, so when schools go back either we withhold our child from school or my child doesn't get to see her mum for however long the shielding is in place.
That said, I just don't see it happening before September.0 -
We’re waiting to see who is the next Jong in line.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Kim is dead - long live the Kim?ydoethur said:
But there are very few good puns you can make about Aberdeenshire.RobD said:
Meanwhile, we can say that the Daily Post is having a good Môn about Kim.0 -
Willow (commonwealth countries) and Maple (The Americas and Japan) are the most popular vegetarian bat options.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Um, some vegetarian bat-substitute for me, pleaseFrancisUrquhart said:Bat curry for dinner anybody?
www.thesun.co.uk/news/11484229/shocking-pictures-wet-market-still-open-coronavirus0 -
What possible exclusive could Corbyn's newspaper of choice have...
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1254491594704793602?s=190 -
The problem in Jurassic Park (the book, which is equally great but different in enough places to the brilliant film version) was that the computer was only counting the animals the park operators expected to be in the park, and not the unexpected animals that it could have been counting if they'd programmed it to do so if they'd been expecting breeding.Andy_JS said:Another problem with electronic voting is that recounts are impossible. If someone wins by one vote and you ask the computer to check it, it'll just give you exactly the same result again, by definition. That may be logical but it isn't reassuring.
Dunno how this is relevant (answer: almost certainly not) but just came into my head when reading your comment.
If they ever did an electronic vote GE I'd want to see some limited (and unpublicised ahead of time) polling stations where people also did a paper vote as a kind of cross-check. I daresay they still wouldn't exactly match just cos...people...but might help highlight if anything was wildly different between the two in limited samples.0 -
Larry the cat is a secret double agent. He fed Labour loads of intel on the last election campaign.FrancisUrquhart said:What possible exclusive could Corbyn's newspaper of choice have...
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1254491594704793602?s=19
But they didn’t pay up in the right proportion of fish to cream, trying to fob him off with Whiskas, so he twisted on them.1 -
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Kim I presumeydoethur said:
Larry the cat is a secret double agent. He fed Labour loads of intel on the last election campaign.FrancisUrquhart said:What possible exclusive could Corbyn's newspaper of choice have...
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1254491594704793602?s=19
But they didn’t pay up in the right proportion of fish to cream, trying to fob him with Whiskas, so he twisted on them.0 -
Solve the tracking problem with chip implants?
As I recall Brave New World (or 1984) didn't have solid state electronics.0 -
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Sure and urban boozers may survive on that trade. A lot of pubs are dependent on an older crowd though. Theatres and classical music very much too.MaxPB said:
I think there is definitely a generation gap, literally all of my friends can't wait to get back to the pub.Foxy said:
I think that when lockdown ends, a lot of businesses are going to be struggling to find customers. Anything travel related, hospitality based, sporting and musical events etc. A 14 quarantine on foreign travel is a bullet between the eyes for the airline industry.Mortimer said:
The logic that our erstwhile @contrarian is unable to follow.eristdoof said:
The problem is when letting the disease spread freely the disease can "shut the system down" itself. Each active doctor or nurse taken out by the disease is a waste and shock to the economy, that is true for most people who work, and others who provide valuable unpaid support to society too, it's just not so obvious. When it gets out of control then consequences are worse than a lockdown.Sean_F said:If Coronavirus is a permanent thing, then we should just accept it's an occupational hazard. We should not shut down our social system over it.
The economy is destroyed by exponential viral spread far more than it is by lockdown.
Until I have confirmed antibodies, I am not eating in a restaurant, going to the theatre or to a concert.0 -
Honestly.....there is no country in the world that would unleash Covid 19 on the population...bigjohnowls said:
These views by Sean and Andy are just so far on the bonkers extreme...I mean Brexit x100000.....
So I'm with Foxy and the sane folk....
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bigjohnowls said:
Multiple breaches of social distancing!tyson said:
Honestly.....there is no country in the world that would unleash Covid 19 on the population...bigjohnowls said:
These views by Sean and Andy are just so far on the bonkers extreme...I mean Brexit x100000.....
So I'm with Foxy and the sane folk....1 -
Does it change everything? Really? If someone like Cummings is asserting himself in a room full of scientists then they should assert back. Grow a fucking backbone or resign.Scott_xP said:
There is also no evidence in the last lot of weeks that the government has done anything other than listen to the scientists. In fact it may well have to go against some of their advice at some point for all we know.
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For Kendall 
