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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Conducting elections with the great unwashed during and after a pandemic
I’ve seen the future and it’s a world with mostly digital campaigning and only online voting
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Weekend effect plus very few historic deaths in todays numbers.
The big one from the governments perspective, is this arbitrary 100k a day tests. Are they actually making any real progress towards it.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/attendees-of-sage-coronavirus-meetings-worried-by-presence-of-dominic-cummings
The key part:
However, the two other Sage attendees the Guardian spoke to painted a different picture to that presented by No 10, which has been striving to play down the influence of the two advisers. Both Sage attendees declined to be named.
“I have been concerned sometimes that Sage has become too operational, so we’ve ended up looking as though we are making decisions,” one of them said, making clear that Cummings had been involved on those occasions. “It contravenes previous guidelines about how you make sure you get impartial scientific advice going through to politicians, who make the decisions.”
Referring to both Cummings and Warner, the Sage attendee added: “When a very senior civil servant or a very well-connected person interrupts, then I don’t think anyone in the room feels the power to stop it. When you get to discussing where advice might be going, there have been occasions where they have been involved, and a couple of times I’ve thought: that’s not what we are supposed to be doing.”
A second Sage attendee said Cummings had played an active role meetings from February onwards. They said they were initially shocked to discover Cummings was taking part in a meeting of supposedly independent scientific experts.
“He was not just an observer, he’s listed as an active participant,” the source said. “He was engaging in conversation and not sitting silently.” The second attendee said Cumming’s involvement was worrying because of his reputation in Whitehall and the questions his participation raises about Sage’s role as a neutral body of expert advisers.
Wa-hey! "Knock up!" That sounds *incredibly* rude!
https://mobile.twitter.com/beccamebabe/status/1254386438248058880
Can anyone guess the election ?
The reaction from the two Sage attendees contrasts with that of Prof Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College epidemiologist whose models have played a guiding role in the government’s response to Covid-19. He appeared unconcerned when asked, in a video interview, about Cummings attending Sage meetings. “There have been a number of observers at those meetings, who have not interfered with business at all,” he replied.
In that interview, he also went on to be even firmer with talk that he rarely interacts with political figures and only answers to Witty and Vallance at these meetings.
What links those places with bad/good outcomes?
Airline routes maybe? Pollution?
“ Ecuador’s Death Toll During Outbreak Is Among the Worst in the World
A New York Times analysis suggests that Ecuador’s death toll is 15 times higher than its official tally of coronavirus deaths, highlighting the damage the virus can do in developing countries.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/americas/ecuador-deaths-coronavirus.html
For e.g. if 10 mins at 100c kills the corony bug, then we could realistically auto-clave the ballot papers. If the bug dies anyway after 24 hours, just leave to ballot boxes under guard for a day.
We should also look into auto-claving the politicians who knock on doors. I suggest 1000c for at least 12 hours.
Would you go out and vote if you and your family might get a deadly virus?
EU Ref = 3.8%
Devolution Ref '79 = 3.2%
Except that the turnout meant that fewer than 40% of the electorate supported Devolution.
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254407147238182913?s=20
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254407149213581313?s=20
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1254406873928908802?s=20
Ecuador has quite a young demographic too, as well as being 30C+ most days.
No...not yet...next.
If queuing is an issue, then stretching voting over a number of days or adding additional polling stations is not unreasonable.
It was actually a reference to the Blackadder series 2 episode "Beer". Paraphrasing of lines spoken by Hugh Laurie in a guest role as a party-goer Partridge:
http://allblackadderscripts.blogspot.com/2012/12/blackadder-ii-episode-5-beer.html
The penalty for electoral fraud needs to be a very nasty one.
It is also quite hard for the Russians to interfere with. Online voting, on the other hand...
You missed an opportunity to show why AV is less attractive in a pandemic.
And you went for not ordering a bat burger instead of not ordering a Hawaiian pizza.
At that rate of decrease we are still 6 weeks away from reducing the number of deaths reported for the previous day down to single figures (equivalent to reducing the number of deaths reported on each day to ~50). There's an awful lot of dying left to go.
And in Germany, medical wholesalers say they have almost run out of masks. From Monday it will be compulsory for people to cover their faces in shops and on public transport in the country.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52430738
It was because the idiots organising the NUT and ATL merger vote failed to send my ballot out here times.
So in the end they asked me to let me know which way I wanted to vote and they would tally it up.
I was on the losing side, but it was this that gave me the incentive to switch to the NASUWT.
The envelopes can be made self-sealing, so no saliva need be involved, and you could potentially work something out with the royal mail for the collection of votes for those shielding, or with local party members - though your choice of which party you trust to collect your vote may give a clue to the way in which you chose to vote. Relatively easy to leave the votes for however long it takes for the virus to die before counting them.
I'd have thought smoking would lead to a poorer prognosis.
I think Goalkeeper is where you really have very limited scope. Very few goalkeepers have been total game changers and pretty much all played for one of a very small handful of teams.
Who can you name as real game changer in goal?
Schmeichel for me is way out in front. Then the likes of Banks, Kahn and I am told Yashin.
Then you have second tier of say Buffon, Zoff, Southall, Shilton, Van Der Sar, Cech (only during a few peak years).
It is also difficult because often keeper who play for the best teams, have the best players in front of them e.g. Iker Casillas or Neuer.
If this is still an issue at the time, then a combination of postal voting and having multi-day ballots would make more sense than the insanity of online voting.
It'd be wide open to hacking shenanigans and severely damage faith in the result. Leaping from the best system (in person) to the worst without considering the middle way of postal voting is crackers.
Mr. kinabalu, the great warm embrace of online voting is such that even participants not usually invited to democratic events get to take part.
Mr. Urquhart, making something mandatory when it seems about to run out is sub-optimal.
We are used to having elections and results be simultaneous, and that is preferable, but a gap of a couple of weeks wouldn't be the end of the world as a one-off.
Mind you we are forever being told that there are 2000 noxious substances in tobacco smoke, so why nicotione should be the key ingredient isn't clear. If it is I'm not going to start smoking again but this vaping thing might be worth looking at.
Not convinced I want 14.4 times the risk of complications for a 75% reduced probability of catching it though.
©Donald Trump
Data from China that @Foxy quoted a while ago.
And today I have been informed about a study in Paris showing the same thing. With results so striking as to trigger the interest in nicotine as a treatment.
Probably bollox - but as a smoker I have skin in the game.
If I had to guess, I'd expect most would have been transmissions within homes and workplaces that are still functioning.
After that, shopping?
I see an article about Neil Ferguson's lockdown easing modelling in the Times makes the same points that I have been making for the last week - R is still relatively high at the moment, during lockdown, so easing of measures is going to be slow.
Kids back in September is my bet. No events or restaurants for the rest of the year.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/americas/ecuador-deaths-coronavirus.html
Adjusted for population size that is equivalent to 29,500 excess deaths for the UK, which spookily enough is approximately what we have had. Not sure what to make of that given that Ecuador has melted down and we haven't.
It will be led by Environment Secretary George Eustice, who has previously updated us on food supplies to supermarkets during the pandemic. He'll be joined by NHS England's national medical director Prof Stephen Powis, who also attended yesterday's briefing.
It’s so simple that anyone can use it. I mean, imagine messing that system up. You’d have to be a nation of retards who’d vote for an orangutan as Head of State.
Yesterdays classic was that shoplifting is down. Shocked!!
However, postal voting already happens. It is widespread, known and, while flawed, is considerably better than online voting during a pandemic (or any other time).
A really dedicated postal-vote-rigger might try granny farming or forge a few signatures. But at best they might be able to influence a small number of votes. And there is a literal paper trail to investigate.
A hacker gaining control of an online system has the potential to change 100% of the votes in their favour, and if they do it correctly, to do it without anyone ever being able to prove the election has been rigged.
Online voting will ALWAYS be subject to questioning about its integrity. Because the security is is too complex for the lay person to understand. Think about all the hoo-hah about Russian influence on Brexit. Now imagine a knife edge vote like that, if it could never be proven that the vote was hacked. It is a recipe for calling into question the legitimacy of every vote you disagree with. For that reason alone, it should never, ever be allowed to happen.
5m people voting twice or 5m people not able to vote?
I stopped reading right there.
Next cunning plan from Unionists, bequeathed indy ref votes, to be valid post mortem for a generation.