politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Conducting elections with the great unwashed during and after
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Conducting elections with the great unwashed during and after a pandemic
I’ve seen the future and it’s a world with mostly digital campaigning and only online voting
Comments
-
336 new deaths in England....queue media saying massive drop in daily deaths, end lockdown now.
Weekend effect plus very few historic deaths in todays numbers.0 -
368 inc. Scotland and Wales (+18, +14 respectively). Not sure about NI. Probably need to see tomorrow's figures to see if it really is a trend.FrancisUrquhart said:336 new deaths in England....queue media saying massive drop in daily deaths, end lockdown now.
Weekend effect plus very few historic deaths in todays numbers.0 -
We don't need to tomorrows figures to know there is a real trend downwards, it has been in the numbers for past 2+ weeks.Sunil_Prasannan said:
368 inc. Scotland and Wales (+18, +14 respectively). Not sure about NI. Probably need to see tomorrow's figures to see if it really is a trend.FrancisUrquhart said:336 new deaths in England....queue media saying massive drop in daily deaths, end lockdown now.
Weekend effect plus very few historic deaths in todays numbers.
The big one from the governments perspective, is this arbitrary 100k a day tests. Are they actually making any real progress towards it.0 -
First after the fifth count.0
-
This seems a little pertinent for all those who were yesteday claiming that Cummings was as silent as a SPAD can be during SAGE meetings. Unless he is fluent in sign langauage as well as Russian I doubt he would have been able to make an 'active' contribution otherwise.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/attendees-of-sage-coronavirus-meetings-worried-by-presence-of-dominic-cummings
The key part:
However, the two other Sage attendees the Guardian spoke to painted a different picture to that presented by No 10, which has been striving to play down the influence of the two advisers. Both Sage attendees declined to be named.
“I have been concerned sometimes that Sage has become too operational, so we’ve ended up looking as though we are making decisions,” one of them said, making clear that Cummings had been involved on those occasions. “It contravenes previous guidelines about how you make sure you get impartial scientific advice going through to politicians, who make the decisions.”
Referring to both Cummings and Warner, the Sage attendee added: “When a very senior civil servant or a very well-connected person interrupts, then I don’t think anyone in the room feels the power to stop it. When you get to discussing where advice might be going, there have been occasions where they have been involved, and a couple of times I’ve thought: that’s not what we are supposed to be doing.”
A second Sage attendee said Cummings had played an active role meetings from February onwards. They said they were initially shocked to discover Cummings was taking part in a meeting of supposedly independent scientific experts.
“He was not just an observer, he’s listed as an active participant,” the source said. “He was engaging in conversation and not sitting silently.” The second attendee said Cumming’s involvement was worrying because of his reputation in Whitehall and the questions his participation raises about Sage’s role as a neutral body of expert advisers.2 -
4913/23115 yesterday. Lets see what today brings.0
-
Online voting is the work of Satan.1
-
"knocking up the voters on election day"
Wa-hey! "Knock up!" That sounds *incredibly* rude!0 -
0
-
It's highly likely to be a continuation of the downward trend. 368 is the lowest I can remember even allowing for weekend/reporting/really slow trust effects.Sunil_Prasannan said:
368 inc. Scotland and Wales (+18, +14 respectively). Not sure about NI. Probably need to see tomorrow's figures to see if it really is a trend.FrancisUrquhart said:336 new deaths in England....queue media saying massive drop in daily deaths, end lockdown now.
Weekend effect plus very few historic deaths in todays numbers.0 -
Is there a new graph availablec showing the deaths reallocated to the date of death rather than the date they were reported.?FrancisUrquhart said:
We don't need to tomorrows figures to know there is a real trend downwards, it has been in the numbers for past 2+ weeks.Sunil_Prasannan said:
368 inc. Scotland and Wales (+18, +14 respectively). Not sure about NI. Probably need to see tomorrow's figures to see if it really is a trend.FrancisUrquhart said:336 new deaths in England....queue media saying massive drop in daily deaths, end lockdown now.
Weekend effect plus very few historic deaths in todays numbers.
The big one from the governments perspective, is this arbitrary 100k a day tests. Are they actually making any real progress towards it.0 -
"Both Sage attendees declined to be named." Well, quite.MightyAlex said:This seems a little pertinent for all those who were yesteday claiming that Cummings was as silent as a SPAD can be during SAGE meetings. Unless he is fluent in sign langauage as well as Russian I doubt he would have been able to make an 'active' contribution otherwise.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/attendees-of-sage-coronavirus-meetings-worried-by-presence-of-dominic-cummings
The key part:
However, the two other Sage attendees the Guardian spoke to painted a different picture to that presented by No 10, which has been striving to play down the influence of the two advisers. Both Sage attendees declined to be named.
“I have been concerned sometimes that Sage has become too operational, so we’ve ended up looking as though we are making decisions,” one of them said, making clear that Cummings had been involved on those occasions. “It contravenes previous guidelines about how you make sure you get impartial scientific advice going through to politicians, who make the decisions.”
Referring to both Cummings and Warner, the Sage attendee added: “When a very senior civil servant or a very well-connected person interrupts, then I don’t think anyone in the room feels the power to stop it. When you get to discussing where advice might be going, there have been occasions where they have been involved, and a couple of times I’ve thought: that’s not what we are supposed to be doing.”
A second Sage attendee said Cummings had played an active role meetings from February onwards. They said they were initially shocked to discover Cummings was taking part in a meeting of supposedly independent scientific experts.
“He was not just an observer, he’s listed as an active participant,” the source said. “He was engaging in conversation and not sitting silently.” The second attendee said Cumming’s involvement was worrying because of his reputation in Whitehall and the questions his participation raises about Sage’s role as a neutral body of expert advisers.0 -
I've voted online.. once. The election in question actually ran remarkably smoothly, the outcome was more mixed for the organisation in question..
Can anyone guess the election ?0 -
And on the record...IshmaelZ said:
"Both Sage attendees declined to be named." Well, quite.MightyAlex said:This seems a little pertinent for all those who were yesteday claiming that Cummings was as silent as a SPAD can be during SAGE meetings. Unless he is fluent in sign langauage as well as Russian I doubt he would have been able to make an 'active' contribution otherwise.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/attendees-of-sage-coronavirus-meetings-worried-by-presence-of-dominic-cummings
The key part:
However, the two other Sage attendees the Guardian spoke to painted a different picture to that presented by No 10, which has been striving to play down the influence of the two advisers. Both Sage attendees declined to be named.
“I have been concerned sometimes that Sage has become too operational, so we’ve ended up looking as though we are making decisions,” one of them said, making clear that Cummings had been involved on those occasions. “It contravenes previous guidelines about how you make sure you get impartial scientific advice going through to politicians, who make the decisions.”
Referring to both Cummings and Warner, the Sage attendee added: “When a very senior civil servant or a very well-connected person interrupts, then I don’t think anyone in the room feels the power to stop it. When you get to discussing where advice might be going, there have been occasions where they have been involved, and a couple of times I’ve thought: that’s not what we are supposed to be doing.”
A second Sage attendee said Cummings had played an active role meetings from February onwards. They said they were initially shocked to discover Cummings was taking part in a meeting of supposedly independent scientific experts.
“He was not just an observer, he’s listed as an active participant,” the source said. “He was engaging in conversation and not sitting silently.” The second attendee said Cumming’s involvement was worrying because of his reputation in Whitehall and the questions his participation raises about Sage’s role as a neutral body of expert advisers.
The reaction from the two Sage attendees contrasts with that of Prof Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College epidemiologist whose models have played a guiding role in the government’s response to Covid-19. He appeared unconcerned when asked, in a video interview, about Cummings attending Sage meetings. “There have been a number of observers at those meetings, who have not interfered with business at all,” he replied.
In that interview, he also went on to be even firmer with talk that he rarely interacts with political figures and only answers to Witty and Vallance at these meetings.0 -
I wonder if, when we look back, there will be some common factor that explains why certain areas are affected more than others?
What links those places with bad/good outcomes?
Airline routes maybe? Pollution?
“ Ecuador’s Death Toll During Outbreak Is Among the Worst in the World
A New York Times analysis suggests that Ecuador’s death toll is 15 times higher than its official tally of coronavirus deaths, highlighting the damage the virus can do in developing countries.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/americas/ecuador-deaths-coronavirus.html0 -
2015 Labour party leadership election?Pulpstar said:I've voted online.. once. The election in question actually ran remarkably smoothly, the outcome was more mixed for the organisation in question..
Can anyone guess the election ?0 -
I think the guy is having his Sunday lunch.squareroot2 said:
Is there a new graph availablec showing the deaths reallocated to the date of death rather than the date they were reported.?FrancisUrquhart said:
We don't need to tomorrows figures to know there is a real trend downwards, it has been in the numbers for past 2+ weeks.Sunil_Prasannan said:
368 inc. Scotland and Wales (+18, +14 respectively). Not sure about NI. Probably need to see tomorrow's figures to see if it really is a trend.FrancisUrquhart said:336 new deaths in England....queue media saying massive drop in daily deaths, end lockdown now.
Weekend effect plus very few historic deaths in todays numbers.
The big one from the governments perspective, is this arbitrary 100k a day tests. Are they actually making any real progress towards it.0 -
Bingo.TheScreamingEagles said:
2015 Labour party leadership election?Pulpstar said:I've voted online.. once. The election in question actually ran remarkably smoothly, the outcome was more mixed for the organisation in question..
Can anyone guess the election ?0 -
On topic: Before panicking, the gov should pay for some research into how long viruses can live on various media, and how to effectively disinfect said media.
For e.g. if 10 mins at 100c kills the corony bug, then we could realistically auto-clave the ballot papers. If the bug dies anyway after 24 hours, just leave to ballot boxes under guard for a day.
We should also look into auto-claving the politicians who knock on doors. I suggest 1000c for at least 12 hours.
0 -
I agree but we are where we are.Morris_Dancer said:Online voting is the work of Satan.
Would you go out and vote if you and your family might get a deadly virus?0 -
As someone who works in IT currently and knows a bit about things such as cryptography and website security can I just say NO TO ONLINE VOTING, it will never be secure and I doubt it could be made secure unless of course you want foreign states able to pick the government they want for the UK4
-
The winning margin at Scottish Referendum '79 was very similar to EU Ref.
EU Ref = 3.8%
Devolution Ref '79 = 3.2%
Except that the turnout meant that fewer than 40% of the electorate supported Devolution.
0 -
Two mink farms in the Netherlands have confirmed cases of coronavirus among its animals. According to a ministry of agriculture statement, the minks showed various symptoms including respiratory problems.0
-
Boaty McBoatface?Pulpstar said:I've voted online.. once. The election in question actually ran remarkably smoothly, the outcome was more mixed for the organisation in question..
Can anyone guess the election ?0 -
-
plenty of people think they can go to the shops, so why notTheScreamingEagles said:
I agree but we are where we are.Morris_Dancer said:Online voting is the work of Satan.
Would you go out and vote if you and your family might get a deadly virus?
1 -
Only to a pervert brought up on the Carry On films, Mr Sunannan. For most people it is a perfectly normal term.Sunil_Prasannan said:"knocking up the voters on election day"
Wa-hey! "Knock up!" That sounds *incredibly* rude!0 -
But oldies are advised not to do so, the key demographic for the Tory party.Floater said:
plenty of people think they can go to the shops, so why notTheScreamingEagles said:
I agree but we are where we are.Morris_Dancer said:Online voting is the work of Satan.
Would you go out and vote if you and your family might get a deadly virus?0 -
Jesus christ....the amount of fake news the government are having to battle.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1254406873928908802?s=200 -
significantly down(30%ish) on the figures reported last sunday though and nearly half that of the sunday before.FrancisUrquhart said:336 new deaths in England....queue media saying massive drop in daily deaths, end lockdown now.
Weekend effect plus very few historic deaths in todays numbers.0 -
Small mutations perhaps?isam said:I wonder if, when we look back, there will be some common factor that explains why certain areas are affected more than others?
What links those places with bad/good outcomes?
Airline routes maybe? Pollution?
Ecuador has quite a young demographic too, as well as being 30C+ most days.
0 -
What we need, irrespective of the virus, is the ability to vote early. Have a designated place where a vote can be cast Monday to Saturday 08:00 till 20:00.0
-
and often?tlg86 said:What we need, irrespective of the virus, is the ability to vote early. Have a designated place where a vote can be cast Monday to Saturday 08:00 till 20:00.
0 -
Well that didn't take long...Daily Mail headline.."An end in sight?"
No...not yet...next.1 -
I knew someone would say that!FrancisUrquhart said:
and often?tlg86 said:What we need, irrespective of the virus, is the ability to vote early. Have a designated place where a vote can be cast Monday to Saturday 08:00 till 20:00.
0 -
More on topic thoughts: maybe my experience is unusual, but I have never really had to wait long to vote.
If queuing is an issue, then stretching voting over a number of days or adding additional polling stations is not unreasonable.0 -
Carry On? Nope, wrong franchise!ClippP said:
Only to a pervert brought up on the Carry On films. For most people it is a perfectly normal term.Sunil_Prasannan said:"knocking up the voters on election day"
Wa-hey! "Knock up!" That sounds *incredibly* rude!
It was actually a reference to the Blackadder series 2 episode "Beer". Paraphrasing of lines spoken by Hugh Laurie in a guest role as a party-goer Partridge:
http://allblackadderscripts.blogspot.com/2012/12/blackadder-ii-episode-5-beer.html0 -
I really do like going down to the voting station - a sense of civic pride.Morris_Dancer said:Online voting is the work of Satan.
The penalty for electoral fraud needs to be a very nasty one.0 -
I think they literally have the army working on this rebuttal unit.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus christ....the amount of fake news the government are having to battle.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1254406873928908802?s=201 -
Did not have you down as a Labourite. Another lesson for me there about assuming things. Reminds me of my debacle with @Wulfrun_Phil.Pulpstar said:
Bingo.TheScreamingEagles said:
2015 Labour party leadership election?Pulpstar said:I've voted online.. once. The election in question actually ran remarkably smoothly, the outcome was more mixed for the organisation in question..
Can anyone guess the election ?0 -
A comprehensive study should be carried out into how Vietnam avoided covid 19 despite 1000s of its citizens working in WuhanAndrew said:
Small mutations perhaps?isam said:I wonder if, when we look back, there will be some common factor that explains why certain areas are affected more than others?
What links those places with bad/good outcomes?
Airline routes maybe? Pollution?
Ecuador has quite a young demographic too, as well as being 30C+ most days.0 -
A comprehensive study should be carried out into how Vietnam avoided covid 19 despite 1000s of its citizens working in WuhanAndrew said:
Small mutations perhaps?isam said:I wonder if, when we look back, there will be some common factor that explains why certain areas are affected more than others?
What links those places with bad/good outcomes?
Airline routes maybe? Pollution?
Ecuador has quite a young demographic too, as well as being 30C+ most days.0 -
I'm struggling to understand what is wrong with postal voting. Your vote is delivered to you by the mailman, you walk it 100 yards (or drive 500) to the postbox, stick it in the post, no contact. It is then delivered to the place where it is counted, where social distancing can be observed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I agree but we are where we are.Morris_Dancer said:Online voting is the work of Satan.
Would you go out and vote if you and your family might get a deadly virus?
It is also quite hard for the Russians to interfere with. Online voting, on the other hand...2 -
I’m disappointed,TSE. This thread is full of missed opportunities.
You missed an opportunity to show why AV is less attractive in a pandemic.
And you went for not ordering a bat burger instead of not ordering a Hawaiian pizza.0 -
Comparing today's figures with one week ago, and a finger in the air estimate would be that the week-on-week decrease is about one-third. Looks consistent with comparing yesterday's figures to a week before that.Pulpstar said:
It's highly likely to be a continuation of the downward trend. 368 is the lowest I can remember even allowing for weekend/reporting/really slow trust effects.Sunil_Prasannan said:
368 inc. Scotland and Wales (+18, +14 respectively). Not sure about NI. Probably need to see tomorrow's figures to see if it really is a trend.FrancisUrquhart said:336 new deaths in England....queue media saying massive drop in daily deaths, end lockdown now.
Weekend effect plus very few historic deaths in todays numbers.
At that rate of decrease we are still 6 weeks away from reducing the number of deaths reported for the previous day down to single figures (equivalent to reducing the number of deaths reported on each day to ~50). There's an awful lot of dying left to go.0 -
I think if it works AND everyone can do it then it's the way to go. But we are quite a way off that being the case.Morris_Dancer said:Online voting is the work of Satan.
0 -
Not everyone lives near a postbox/has a car to go that far.kyf_100 said:
I'm struggling to understand what is wrong with postal voting. Your vote is delivered to you by the mailman, you walk it 100 yards (or drive 500) to the postbox, stick it in the post, no contact. It is then delivered to the place where it is counted, where social distancing can be observed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I agree but we are where we are.Morris_Dancer said:Online voting is the work of Satan.
Would you go out and vote if you and your family might get a deadly virus?
It is also quite hard for the Russians to interfere with. Online voting, on the other hand...0 -
Not everyone knows about disgust for pineapple on pizza, but we're all appalled at the concept of a bat burger from Wuhan.ydoethur said:I’m disappointed,TSE. This thread is full of missed opportunities.
You missed an opportunity to show why AV is less attractive in a pandemic.
And you went for not ordering a bat burger instead of not ordering a Hawaiian pizza.0 -
A young and poor country: median age 28, life expectancy 76, median income $2410/month. HYUFD please copy.isam said:I wonder if, when we look back, there will be some common factor that explains why certain areas are affected more than others?
What links those places with bad/good outcomes?
Airline routes maybe? Pollution?
“ Ecuador’s Death Toll During Outbreak Is Among the Worst in the World
A New York Times analysis suggests that Ecuador’s death toll is 15 times higher than its official tally of coronavirus deaths, highlighting the damage the virus can do in developing countries.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/americas/ecuador-deaths-coronavirus.html0 -
Meanwhile in China, the authorities have confiscated 89m poor quality face masks..In the first two months of the year, almost 9,000 new manufacturers started producing masks in China, the business data platform Tianyancha reported.....
And in Germany, medical wholesalers say they have almost run out of masks. From Monday it will be compulsory for people to cover their faces in shops and on public transport in the country.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-524307380 -
So, this "smokers immunity" looks like it might be a thing. In France they are experimenting with nicotine patches as a treatment.0
-
Just like less than 40% of the electorate supported Brexit?Sunil_Prasannan said:The winning margin at Scottish Referendum '79 was very similar to EU Ref.
EU Ref = 3.8%
Devolution Ref '79 = 3.2%
Except that the turnout meant that fewer than 40% of the electorate supported Devolution.0 -
So much for the idea that Dom maintained a Trappist silence throughout these Sage meetings. Sounds as if he's been interrupting and sticking his oar in all over the shop. Whatever the rights or wrongs, it's correct that the Guardian brought this to light. Those on here who demanded that the Guardian be 'closed down' over this need some serious introspection.2
-
I voted online once.Pulpstar said:I've voted online.. once. The election in question actually ran remarkably smoothly, the outcome was more mixed for the organisation in question..
Can anyone guess the election ?
It was because the idiots organising the NUT and ATL merger vote failed to send my ballot out here times.
So in the end they asked me to let me know which way I wanted to vote and they would tally it up.
I was on the losing side, but it was this that gave me the incentive to switch to the NASUWT.0 -
All of the voting scandals of recent times have been related to postal voting. Such things as the head of the household or community leaders collecting ballot papers and filling them or one bedroom flats which apparently have 21 people registered to vote living there.kyf_100 said:
I'm struggling to understand what is wrong with postal voting. Your vote is delivered to you by the mailman, you walk it 100 yards (or drive 500) to the postbox, stick it in the post, no contact. It is then delivered to the place where it is counted, where social distancing can be observed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I agree but we are where we are.Morris_Dancer said:Online voting is the work of Satan.
Would you go out and vote if you and your family might get a deadly virus?
It is also quite hard for the Russians to interfere with. Online voting, on the other hand...0 -
That episode had surely the greatest punchline in 80s TV, which they spent the whole episode building up to and then ingeniously cut it after the first letter.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Carry On? Nope, wrong franchise!ClippP said:
Only to a pervert brought up on the Carry On films. For most people it is a perfectly normal term.Sunil_Prasannan said:"knocking up the voters on election day"
Wa-hey! "Knock up!" That sounds *incredibly* rude!
It was actually a reference to the Blackadder series 2 episode "Beer". Paraphrasing of lines spoken by Hugh Laurie in a guest role as a party-goer Partridge:
http://allblackadderscripts.blogspot.com/2012/12/blackadder-ii-episode-5-beer.html2 -
Yes, postal voting is the way to go.kyf_100 said:
I'm struggling to understand what is wrong with postal voting. Your vote is delivered to you by the mailman, you walk it 100 yards (or drive 500) to the postbox, stick it in the post, no contact. It is then delivered to the place where it is counted, where social distancing can be observed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I agree but we are where we are.Morris_Dancer said:Online voting is the work of Satan.
Would you go out and vote if you and your family might get a deadly virus?
It is also quite hard for the Russians to interfere with. Online voting, on the other hand...
The envelopes can be made self-sealing, so no saliva need be involved, and you could potentially work something out with the royal mail for the collection of votes for those shielding, or with local party members - though your choice of which party you trust to collect your vote may give a clue to the way in which you chose to vote. Relatively easy to leave the votes for however long it takes for the virus to die before counting them.0 -
Voting will largely stay the same - at worst, with an in person vote, its no different to going to the supermarket and needs to be done very infrequently.1
-
Was thinking about this World Footy XI, no players from the same country or played for the same team.
I think Goalkeeper is where you really have very limited scope. Very few goalkeepers have been total game changers and pretty much all played for one of a very small handful of teams.
Who can you name as real game changer in goal?
Schmeichel for me is way out in front. Then the likes of Banks, Kahn and I am told Yashin.
Then you have second tier of say Buffon, Zoff, Southall, Shilton, Van Der Sar, Cech (only during a few peak years).
It is also difficult because often keeper who play for the best teams, have the best players in front of them e.g. Iker Casillas or Neuer.0 -
Mr. Eagles, I'm going shopping for food regularly. Hundreds of times more often than I vote.
If this is still an issue at the time, then a combination of postal voting and having multi-day ballots would make more sense than the insanity of online voting.
It'd be wide open to hacking shenanigans and severely damage faith in the result. Leaping from the best system (in person) to the worst without considering the middle way of postal voting is crackers.
Mr. kinabalu, the great warm embrace of online voting is such that even participants not usually invited to democratic events get to take part.
Mr. Urquhart, making something mandatory when it seems about to run out is sub-optimal.0 -
I think the solution to all postal voting is just to agree a fortnight gap between election day and the vote count. All the votes are stuck in a locker in the Council office, have a provision for monitoring (maybe parties can put their own locks on the locker, just like they can put their own seats on ballot boxes). Wait 10 days, all coronavirus on surfaces will die. Do the count then.
We are used to having elections and results be simultaneous, and that is preferable, but a gap of a couple of weeks wouldn't be the end of the world as a one-off.0 -
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/23/smokers-four-times-less-likely-contract-covid-19-prompting-nicotine/Pulpstar said:
Can you point to anything that remotely shows that ?kinabalu said:So, this "smokers immunity" looks like it might be a thing. In France they are experimenting with nicotine patches as a treatment.
I'd have thought smoking would lead to a poorer prognosis.
Mind you we are forever being told that there are 2000 noxious substances in tobacco smoke, so why nicotione should be the key ingredient isn't clear. If it is I'm not going to start smoking again but this vaping thing might be worth looking at.0 -
10 days?! Isn't the half life on paper 12 hours?Quincel said:I think the solution to all postal voting is just to agree a fortnight gap between election day and the vote count. All the votes are stuck in a locker in the Council office, have a provision for monitoring (maybe parties can put their own locks on the locker, just like they can put their own seats on ballot boxes). Wait 10 days, all coronavirus on surfaces will die. Do the count then.
We are used to having elections and results be simultaneous, and that is preferable, but a gap of a couple of weeks wouldn't be the end of the world as a one-off.0 -
Wouldn't smoking or vaping carry respiratory droplets further than 2 metres?IshmaelZ said:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/23/smokers-four-times-less-likely-contract-covid-19-prompting-nicotine/Pulpstar said:
Can you point to anything that remotely shows that ?kinabalu said:So, this "smokers immunity" looks like it might be a thing. In France they are experimenting with nicotine patches as a treatment.
I'd have thought smoking would lead to a poorer prognosis.
Mind you we are forever being told that there are 2000 noxious substances in tobacco smoke, so why nicotione should be the key ingredient isn't clear. If it is I'm not going to start smoking again but this vaping thing might be worth looking at.0 -
Was it the 2nd volunteer?FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus christ....the amount of fake news the government are having to battle.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1254406873928908802?s=200 -
Most of the people dying today will have become infected after the lockdown was announced on 23 March. It would be interesting (some might say essential, from a policy point of view) to know how they contracted the virus in spite of social distancing. Armed with this information we might be able to discuss, in an educated sort of way, which elements of the lockdown are worth retaining, relaxing or enhancing.LostPassword said:
Comparing today's figures with one week ago, and a finger in the air estimate would be that the week-on-week decrease is about one-third. Looks consistent with comparing yesterday's figures to a week before that.Pulpstar said:
It's highly likely to be a continuation of the downward trend. 368 is the lowest I can remember even allowing for weekend/reporting/really slow trust effects.Sunil_Prasannan said:
368 inc. Scotland and Wales (+18, +14 respectively). Not sure about NI. Probably need to see tomorrow's figures to see if it really is a trend.FrancisUrquhart said:336 new deaths in England....queue media saying massive drop in daily deaths, end lockdown now.
Weekend effect plus very few historic deaths in todays numbers.
At that rate of decrease we are still 6 weeks away from reducing the number of deaths reported for the previous day down to single figures (equivalent to reducing the number of deaths reported on each day to ~50). There's an awful lot of dying left to go.1 -
Why "carry," when the droplets are airborne in their own right? In fact smoking could be beneficial to others if the smoke disperses in the same way as the droplets, because it acts as a marker while non-smokers create exactly the samr danger, only invisibly.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Wouldn't smoking or vaping carry respiratory droplets further than 2 metres?IshmaelZ said:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/23/smokers-four-times-less-likely-contract-covid-19-prompting-nicotine/Pulpstar said:
Can you point to anything that remotely shows that ?kinabalu said:So, this "smokers immunity" looks like it might be a thing. In France they are experimenting with nicotine patches as a treatment.
I'd have thought smoking would lead to a poorer prognosis.
Mind you we are forever being told that there are 2000 noxious substances in tobacco smoke, so why nicotione should be the key ingredient isn't clear. If it is I'm not going to start smoking again but this vaping thing might be worth looking at.0 -
Thanks,IshmaelZ said:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/23/smokers-four-times-less-likely-contract-covid-19-prompting-nicotine/Pulpstar said:
Can you point to anything that remotely shows that ?kinabalu said:So, this "smokers immunity" looks like it might be a thing. In France they are experimenting with nicotine patches as a treatment.
I'd have thought smoking would lead to a poorer prognosis.
Mind you we are forever being told that there are 2000 noxious substances in tobacco smoke, so why nicotione should be the key ingredient isn't clear. If it is I'm not going to start smoking again but this vaping thing might be worth looking at.
Not convinced I want 14.4 times the risk of complications for a 75% reduced probability of catching it though.0 -
Light kills it in one minute, job done.Mortimer said:
10 days?! Isn't the half life on paper 12 hours?Quincel said:I think the solution to all postal voting is just to agree a fortnight gap between election day and the vote count. All the votes are stuck in a locker in the Council office, have a provision for monitoring (maybe parties can put their own locks on the locker, just like they can put their own seats on ballot boxes). Wait 10 days, all coronavirus on surfaces will die. Do the count then.
We are used to having elections and results be simultaneous, and that is preferable, but a gap of a couple of weeks wouldn't be the end of the world as a one-off.
©Donald Trump0 -
It's not something to joke about really.bigjohnowls said:
Was it the 2nd volunteer?FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus christ....the amount of fake news the government are having to battle.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1254406873928908802?s=201 -
Does seem odd.Pulpstar said:
Can you point to anything that remotely shows that ?kinabalu said:So, this "smokers immunity" looks like it might be a thing. In France they are experimenting with nicotine patches as a treatment.
I'd have thought smoking would lead to a poorer prognosis.
Data from China that @Foxy quoted a while ago.
And today I have been informed about a study in Paris showing the same thing. With results so striking as to trigger the interest in nicotine as a treatment.
Probably bollox - but as a smoker I have skin in the game.0 -
Just asking for a friend who needs the £150.00RobD said:
It's not something to joke about really.bigjohnowls said:
Was it the 2nd volunteer?FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus christ....the amount of fake news the government are having to battle.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1254406873928908802?s=200 -
Legislation for the 1979 referendum required a 40% threshold for Dvolution to pass. Not that I agree with the threshold!Theuniondivvie said:
Just like less than 40% of the electorate supported Brexit?Sunil_Prasannan said:The winning margin at Scottish Referendum '79 was very similar to EU Ref.
EU Ref = 3.8%
Devolution Ref '79 = 3.2%
Except that the turnout meant that fewer than 40% of the electorate supported Devolution.0 -
It’s weird how he’s deteriorated, but De Gea is the best I’ve seen. Part of the problem is that the best tend to make saves look easy. De Gea is the only keeper I’ve seen who regularly made saves I know very few others could make.FrancisUrquhart said:Was thinking about this World Footy XI, no players from the same country or played for the same team.
I think Goalkeeper is where you really have very limited scope. Very few goalkeepers have been total game changers and pretty much all played for one of a very small handful of teams.
Who can you name as real game changer in goal?
Schmeichel for me is way out in front. Then the likes of Banks, Kahn and I am told Yashin.
Then you have second tier of say Buffon, Zoff, Southall, Shilton, Van Der Sar, Cech (only during a few peak years).
It is also difficult because often keeper who play for the best teams, have
the best players in front of them e.g. Iker Casillas or Neuer.0 -
The concept of online voting perfectly highlights a good way of telling if something is a good idea or a bad idea. Merely ask yourself before positing an idea...."Does Donald Trump think this is a good idea?" If the answer is yes then you can save yourself looking a fool by suggesting it.0
-
Much of the country has average temp ma between 23 and 27 degrees C.Andrew said:
Small mutations perhaps?isam said:I wonder if, when we look back, there will be some common factor that explains why certain areas are affected more than others?
What links those places with bad/good outcomes?
Airline routes maybe? Pollution?
Ecuador has quite a young demographic too, as well as being 30C+ most days.0 -
I'm sitting on my patio nonchalantly, or I'm helping Mum with the gardening and the neighbours' smoke wafts over the garden fence. What then? The neighbours might be physically over 2 metres away (on their own property, natch), but the smoke doesn't obey that rule, does it?IshmaelZ said:
Why "carry," when the droplets are airborne in their own right? In fact smoking could be beneficial to others if the smoke disperses in the same way as the droplets, because it acts as a marker while non-smokers create exactly the samr danger, only invisibly.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Wouldn't smoking or vaping carry respiratory droplets further than 2 metres?IshmaelZ said:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/23/smokers-four-times-less-likely-contract-covid-19-prompting-nicotine/Pulpstar said:
Can you point to anything that remotely shows that ?kinabalu said:So, this "smokers immunity" looks like it might be a thing. In France they are experimenting with nicotine patches as a treatment.
I'd have thought smoking would lead to a poorer prognosis.
Mind you we are forever being told that there are 2000 noxious substances in tobacco smoke, so why nicotione should be the key ingredient isn't clear. If it is I'm not going to start smoking again but this vaping thing might be worth looking at.0 -
It was assumed that any dead voters were agin Devolution!Sunil_Prasannan said:The winning margin at Scottish Referendum '79 was very similar to EU Ref.
EU Ref = 3.8%
Devolution Ref '79 = 3.2%
Except that the turnout meant that fewer than 40% of the electorate supported Devolution.0 -
I totally agree.Alphabet_Soup said:
Most of the people dying today will have become infected after the lockdown was announced on 23 March. It would be interesting (some might say essential, from a policy point of view) to know how they contracted the virus in spite of social distancing. Armed with this information we might be able to discuss, in an educated sort of way, which elements of the lockdown are worth retaining, relaxing or enhancing.LostPassword said:
Comparing today's figures with one week ago, and a finger in the air estimate would be that the week-on-week decrease is about one-third. Looks consistent with comparing yesterday's figures to a week before that.Pulpstar said:
It's highly likely to be a continuation of the downward trend. 368 is the lowest I can remember even allowing for weekend/reporting/really slow trust effects.Sunil_Prasannan said:
368 inc. Scotland and Wales (+18, +14 respectively). Not sure about NI. Probably need to see tomorrow's figures to see if it really is a trend.FrancisUrquhart said:336 new deaths in England....queue media saying massive drop in daily deaths, end lockdown now.
Weekend effect plus very few historic deaths in todays numbers.
At that rate of decrease we are still 6 weeks away from reducing the number of deaths reported for the previous day down to single figures (equivalent to reducing the number of deaths reported on each day to ~50). There's an awful lot of dying left to go.
If I had to guess, I'd expect most would have been transmissions within homes and workplaces that are still functioning.
After that, shopping?
I see an article about Neil Ferguson's lockdown easing modelling in the Times makes the same points that I have been making for the last week - R is still relatively high at the moment, during lockdown, so easing of measures is going to be slow.
Kids back in September is my bet. No events or restaurants for the rest of the year.0 -
The need for more ventilators -"Operation last gasp" from Boris was OK though?RobD said:
It's not something to joke about really.bigjohnowls said:
Was it the 2nd volunteer?FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus christ....the amount of fake news the government are having to battle.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1254406873928908802?s=200 -
There was a study that showed virus on cardboard going inactive after 24 hours, stainless steel 72 hours, plastic 72 hours. Copper, I think, was only 4 hours.Mortimer said:
10 days?! Isn't the half life on paper 12 hours?Quincel said:I think the solution to all postal voting is just to agree a fortnight gap between election day and the vote count. All the votes are stuck in a locker in the Council office, have a provision for monitoring (maybe parties can put their own locks on the locker, just like they can put their own seats on ballot boxes). Wait 10 days, all coronavirus on surfaces will die. Do the count then.
We are used to having elections and results be simultaneous, and that is preferable, but a gap of a couple of weeks wouldn't be the end of the world as a one-off.1 -
Mortimer said:
10 days?! Isn't the half life on paper 12 hours?Quincel said:I think the solution to all postal voting is just to agree a fortnight gap between election day and the vote count. All the votes are stuck in a locker in the Council office, have a provision for monitoring (maybe parties can put their own locks on the locker, just like they can put their own seats on ballot boxes). Wait 10 days, all coronavirus on surfaces will die. Do the count then.
We are used to having elections and results be simultaneous, and that is preferable, but a gap of a couple of weeks wouldn't be the end of the world as a one-off.
Depends if they used smooth materials not toxic to covid, such as glossy plastic on any surfaces. Ballot boxes themselves are an obvious problem.Mortimer said:
10 days?! Isn't the half life on paper 12 hours?Quincel said:I think the solution to all postal voting is just to agree a fortnight gap between election day and the vote count. All the votes are stuck in a locker in the Council office, have a provision for monitoring (maybe parties can put their own locks on the locker, just like they can put their own seats on ballot boxes). Wait 10 days, all coronavirus on surfaces will die. Do the count then.
We are used to having elections and results be simultaneous, and that is preferable, but a gap of a couple of weeks wouldn't be the end of the world as a one-off.0 -
Have we had todays weekend lag numbers yet where esteemed commentators decide it's nearly all over and scream lift the lockdown?0
-
Ballot papers are cheap paper, not high gloss.Carnyx said:Mortimer said:
10 days?! Isn't the half life on paper 12 hours?Quincel said:I think the solution to all postal voting is just to agree a fortnight gap between election day and the vote count. All the votes are stuck in a locker in the Council office, have a provision for monitoring (maybe parties can put their own locks on the locker, just like they can put their own seats on ballot boxes). Wait 10 days, all coronavirus on surfaces will die. Do the count then.
We are used to having elections and results be simultaneous, and that is preferable, but a gap of a couple of weeks wouldn't be the end of the world as a one-off.
Depends if they used smooth materials not toxic to covid, such as glossy plastic on any surfaces. Ballot boxes themselves are an obvious problem.Mortimer said:
10 days?! Isn't the half life on paper 12 hours?Quincel said:I think the solution to all postal voting is just to agree a fortnight gap between election day and the vote count. All the votes are stuck in a locker in the Council office, have a provision for monitoring (maybe parties can put their own locks on the locker, just like they can put their own seats on ballot boxes). Wait 10 days, all coronavirus on surfaces will die. Do the count then.
We are used to having elections and results be simultaneous, and that is preferable, but a gap of a couple of weeks wouldn't be the end of the world as a one-off.0 -
"A staggering number of people — about 7,600 more this year — died in Ecuador from March 1 to April 15 than the average in recent years, according to an analysis of official death registration data by The Times."felix said:
Much of the country has average temp ma between 23 and 27 degrees C.Andrew said:
Small mutations perhaps?isam said:I wonder if, when we look back, there will be some common factor that explains why certain areas are affected more than others?
What links those places with bad/good outcomes?
Airline routes maybe? Pollution?
Ecuador has quite a young demographic too, as well as being 30C+ most days.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/americas/ecuador-deaths-coronavirus.html
Adjusted for population size that is equivalent to 29,500 excess deaths for the UK, which spookily enough is approximately what we have had. Not sure what to make of that given that Ecuador has melted down and we haven't.0 -
The government are sending out the who the hell are they team today...
It will be led by Environment Secretary George Eustice, who has previously updated us on food supplies to supermarkets during the pandemic. He'll be joined by NHS England's national medical director Prof Stephen Powis, who also attended yesterday's briefing.0 -
Of course, we could use voting machines, where you press a button, it punches a hole in a card and then drops it into the ballot box without you needing to touch it.Carnyx said:Mortimer said:
10 days?! Isn't the half life on paper 12 hours?Quincel said:I think the solution to all postal voting is just to agree a fortnight gap between election day and the vote count. All the votes are stuck in a locker in the Council office, have a provision for monitoring (maybe parties can put their own locks on the locker, just like they can put their own seats on ballot boxes). Wait 10 days, all coronavirus on surfaces will die. Do the count then.
We are used to having elections and results be simultaneous, and that is preferable, but a gap of a couple of weeks wouldn't be the end of the world as a one-off.
Depends if they used smooth materials not toxic to covid, such as glossy plastic on any surfaces. Ballot boxes themselves are an obvious problem.Mortimer said:
10 days?! Isn't the half life on paper 12 hours?Quincel said:I think the solution to all postal voting is just to agree a fortnight gap between election day and the vote count. All the votes are stuck in a locker in the Council office, have a provision for monitoring (maybe parties can put their own locks on the locker, just like they can put their own seats on ballot boxes). Wait 10 days, all coronavirus on surfaces will die. Do the count then.
We are used to having elections and results be simultaneous, and that is preferable, but a gap of a couple of weeks wouldn't be the end of the world as a one-off.
It’s so simple that anyone can use it. I mean, imagine messing that system up. You’d have to be a nation of retards who’d vote for an orangutan as Head of State.0 -
Tables and charts down thread. No testing numbers yet.bigjohnowls said:Have we had todays weekend lag numbers yet where esteemed commentators decide it's nearly all over and scream lift the lockdown?
0 -
Job requirement writing for the Daily Telegraph isn't it ?bigjohnowls said:Have we had todays weekend lag numbers yet where esteemed commentators decide it's nearly all over and scream lift the lockdown?
1 -
Cant be as bad as Pritti.FrancisUrquhart said:The government are sending out the who the hell are they team today...
It will be led by Environment Secretary George Eustice, who has previously updated us on food supplies to supermarkets during the pandemic. He'll be joined by NHS England's national medical director Prof Stephen Powis, who also attended yesterday's briefing.
Yesterdays classic was that shoplifting is down. Shocked!!0 -
Yes, I'm aware of that. And if it were possible, I'd do away with postal voting and make each person present themselves at a polling booth with photo ID, unless they had a medical reason to apply for a postal vote.Pagan2 said:
All of the voting scandals of recent times have been related to postal voting. Such things as the head of the household or community leaders collecting ballot papers and filling them or one bedroom flats which apparently have 21 people registered to vote living there.kyf_100 said:
I'm struggling to understand what is wrong with postal voting. Your vote is delivered to you by the mailman, you walk it 100 yards (or drive 500) to the postbox, stick it in the post, no contact. It is then delivered to the place where it is counted, where social distancing can be observed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I agree but we are where we are.Morris_Dancer said:Online voting is the work of Satan.
Would you go out and vote if you and your family might get a deadly virus?
It is also quite hard for the Russians to interfere with. Online voting, on the other hand...
However, postal voting already happens. It is widespread, known and, while flawed, is considerably better than online voting during a pandemic (or any other time).
A really dedicated postal-vote-rigger might try granny farming or forge a few signatures. But at best they might be able to influence a small number of votes. And there is a literal paper trail to investigate.
A hacker gaining control of an online system has the potential to change 100% of the votes in their favour, and if they do it correctly, to do it without anyone ever being able to prove the election has been rigged.
Online voting will ALWAYS be subject to questioning about its integrity. Because the security is is too complex for the lay person to understand. Think about all the hoo-hah about Russian influence on Brexit. Now imagine a knife edge vote like that, if it could never be proven that the vote was hacked. It is a recipe for calling into question the legitimacy of every vote you disagree with. For that reason alone, it should never, ever be allowed to happen.4 -
But which hypothetically is worse -Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I'm going shopping for food regularly. Hundreds of times more often than I vote.
If this is still an issue at the time, then a combination of postal voting and having multi-day ballots would make more sense than the insanity of online voting.
It'd be wide open to hacking shenanigans and severely damage faith in the result. Leaping from the best system (in person) to the worst without considering the middle way of postal voting is crackers.
Mr. kinabalu, the great warm embrace of online voting is such that even participants not usually invited to democratic events get to take part.
Mr. Urquhart, making something mandatory when it seems about to run out is sub-optimal.
5m people voting twice or 5m people not able to vote?0 -
'The great unwashed'
I stopped reading right there.0 -
Tbf the ones that died of old age probably were.Carnyx said:
It was assumed that any dead voters were agin Devolution!Sunil_Prasannan said:The winning margin at Scottish Referendum '79 was very similar to EU Ref.
EU Ref = 3.8%
Devolution Ref '79 = 3.2%
Except that the turnout meant that fewer than 40% of the electorate supported Devolution.
Next cunning plan from Unionists, bequeathed indy ref votes, to be valid post mortem for a generation.0 -
And now you’ve had your shower, have you finished reading it?Mysticrose said:'The great unwashed'
I stopped reading right there.
1
