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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly the possible economic catastrophe becomes centre stag

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly the possible economic catastrophe becomes centre stage

It has always been the case since the the scale of the crisis became clear that making saving lives the priority was going to come at a huge economic cost.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,087
    edited April 2020
    Zuerst, and imminently in need of a haircut.

    Get out of bed, you dirty stopins.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,087
    2nd

    Thanks for the header, Mike.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756
    The real issue is operating the loan system through the banks. I imagine the idea is to keep headline government borrowing to manageable levels, but given the fact that (a) our banks are still a badly run shambles and (b) nobody has any faith in them whatsoever, the system they have devised would still be running into all kinds of trouble even if they weren’t feathering their own nests.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756
    edited April 2020
    This is the sort of story that illustrates the problem:

    'My firm is viable – but I can’t get a loan'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52288258
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    What are the chances we decide to relax the lockdown just as those who have gone before us are seeing the start of a second wave? Singapore, an early success, has now imposed a more draconian lockdown as cases resurge.Most of China’s new cases (they say) are Chinese returning from Russia.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756
    For those struggling with Vanilla’s edit function, it’s still there but for some reason you have to refresh after posting for it to be available.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    ydoethur said:

    This is the sort of story that illustrates the problem:

    'My firm is viable – but I can’t get a loan'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52288258

    Yes, I think we speculated weeks ago this might happen. Maybe something will be done after today's headlines.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    What are the chances we decide to relax the lockdown just as those who have gone before us are seeing the start of a second wave? Singapore, an early success, has now imposed a more draconian lockdown as cases resurge.Most of China’s new cases (they say) are Chinese returning from Russia.

    The trouble is we still do not know how the virus is spread in practice rather than in theory. We can identify hotspots by location, by occupation and even by ethnicity but we do cannot explain them. Until more work is done on this, any relaxation will be, if not a leap in the dark, then educated guesswork.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    What are the chances we decide to relax the lockdown just as those who have gone before us are seeing the start of a second wave? Singapore, an early success, has now imposed a more draconian lockdown as cases resurge.Most of China’s new cases (they say) are Chinese returning from Russia.

    Japan ended up doing the same - not a lockdown, but general advice to avoid gatherings etc, which got undermined when the government said they'd reopen schools. That coincided with a US/EU wave, which was pretty much the worst possible timing.

    However I think governments will be quite hawkish about travel restrictions and quarantine this time around.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    What are the chances we decide to relax the lockdown just as those who have gone before us are seeing the start of a second wave? Singapore, an early success, has now imposed a more draconian lockdown as cases resurge.Most of China’s new cases (they say) are Chinese returning from Russia.

    The trouble is we still do not know how the virus is spread in practice rather than in theory. We can identify hotspots by location, by occupation and even by ethnicity but we do cannot explain them. Until more work is done on this, any relaxation will be, if not a leap in the dark, then educated guesswork.
    One thing I find a bit mysterious about this is that the Japanese really talk like they do understand how the virus is spread in practice:

    image

    ...yet nobody else really seems to be saying this. Somebody's wrong, no idea who...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited April 2020

    What are the chances we decide to relax the lockdown just as those who have gone before us are seeing the start of a second wave? Singapore, an early success, has now imposed a more draconian lockdown as cases resurge.Most of China’s new cases (they say) are Chinese returning from Russia.

    The trouble is we still do not know how the virus is spread in practice rather than in theory. We can identify hotspots by location, by occupation and even by ethnicity but we do cannot explain them. Until more work is done on this, any relaxation will be, if not a leap in the dark, then educated guesswork.
    And until we find a virus or a cure (or both). That's the clincher the world is waiting on. Until then it's going to be tough. An excellent thread again by Mike.

    I get the sense an increasing number of people are starting to think the hitherto unthinkable: that this is a virus we have to learn to live with. Or, rather, death is something we have to learn to live with. I was chatting yesterday to a young friend in London, mid-twenties, and she said just this. That her friends are taking precautions but that they're also starting to roll the dice. Another friend of mine said that sooner or later we're just going to have to suck it up.

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    ydoethur said:

    For those struggling with Vanilla’s edit function, it’s still there but for some reason you have to refresh after posting for it to be available.

    I now use Google Chrome for all my pb work and it's superb. Totally stable and I never have issues these days.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    I suspect that actually separating ourselves from the EU, as Sunak said will happen on schedule at the end of the year, isn't going to help to our recovery. It may well be a hindrance.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    British Embassy Jakarta promotes British films while in lockdown- Harry Potter, Johnny English,Notting Hill....and this one:

    https://twitter.com/UKinIndonesia/status/1250288149978214406?s=20
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    What are the chances we decide to relax the lockdown just as those who have gone before us are seeing the start of a second wave? Singapore, an early success, has now imposed a more draconian lockdown as cases resurge.Most of China’s new cases (they say) are Chinese returning from Russia.

    The trouble is we still do not know how the virus is spread in practice rather than in theory. We can identify hotspots by location, by occupation and even by ethnicity but we do cannot explain them. Until more work is done on this, any relaxation will be, if not a leap in the dark, then educated guesswork.
    One thing I find a bit mysterious about this is that the Japanese really talk like they do understand how the virus is spread in practice:

    image

    ...yet nobody else really seems to be saying this. Somebody's wrong, no idea who...
    I don't understand what you're on about (sorry). What they're saying is exactly what every other Gov't and health organisation around the world is saying. There's no difference at all. Their 3 C's are social distancing.

    We know it spreads through close contact, clustering, crowds.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,087

    What are the chances we decide to relax the lockdown just as those who have gone before us are seeing the start of a second wave? Singapore, an early success, has now imposed a more draconian lockdown as cases resurge.Most of China’s new cases (they say) are Chinese returning from Russia.

    The trouble is we still do not know how the virus is spread in practice rather than in theory. We can identify hotspots by location, by occupation and even by ethnicity but we do cannot explain them. Until more work is done on this, any relaxation will be, if not a leap in the dark, then educated guesswork.
    And until we find a virus or a cure (or both). That's the clincher the world is waiting on. Until then it's going to be tough. An excellent thread again by Mike.

    I get the sense an increasing number of people are starting to think the hitherto unthinkable: that this is a virus we have to learn to live with. Or, rather, death is something we have to learn to live with. I was chatting yesterday to a young friend in London, mid-twenties, and she said just this. That her friends are taking precautions but that they're also starting to roll the dice. Another friend of mine said that sooner or later we're just going to have to suck it up.

    I don't really see why that was unthinkable. We have known since day one that vaccines take time, and that the virus would end up in the pool of circulating viruses in the wild - even most likely after a vaccine comes in.

    But time for it to sink in was imo a factor in the government "hint then announce" communication strategy.

    I think - borrowing your analogy - there is also a need to learn an appropriate "dice rolling strategy", once we are over the hump of wave one, and perhaps until wave 2 occurs.

    I would say it is unwise to be starting quite now, however.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Brent Crude Price below $30 overnight R4. Analysts expect it to remain low & volatile for next 6m.
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 363
    The OBR’s coronavirus analysis assumes that economic activity will get back to normal after a lockdown for three months. Is the OBR's economic scenario realistic? Alternatively, does the government intend to maintain all the economic and social distancing rules so preventing any recovery until a vaccine is manufactured, more than a year in the future? The government should tell the British people what it intends to do about the lockdown and social distancing rules in the second half of this year. That is a direct decision of the government.

    The government always says that it is following expert scientific advice. However, the government was elected to run the country in an election, not the scientists. Have people been disenfranchised by scientists, and does the government have the mandate to impose a long lockdown, lasting over a year? The government needs to level with the people directly and honestly, certainly when Johnson returns to work.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    What are the chances we decide to relax the lockdown just as those who have gone before us are seeing the start of a second wave? Singapore, an early success, has now imposed a more draconian lockdown as cases resurge.Most of China’s new cases (they say) are Chinese returning from Russia.

    The trouble is we still do not know how the virus is spread in practice rather than in theory. We can identify hotspots by location, by occupation and even by ethnicity but we do cannot explain them. Until more work is done on this, any relaxation will be, if not a leap in the dark, then educated guesswork.
    True, but the lockdown will have to be eased regardless.

    The surest way to stop the virus from spreading is to throttle the economy until it dies and most of the country perishes of starvation along with it, but needless to say the Government would consider this to be a sub-optimal outcome.

    The virus appears to be so infectious, it's so widespread in the country, and the means to effectively treat or vaccinate against it are still so far away, that the aims of squashing it down to nothing and preventing socio-economic disintegration are mutually exclusive. We're simply going to have to accept significant numbers of deaths of individuals from this disease occurring every day for a very long time - releasing the choke-hold round the throat of the economy by as much as possible without completely swamping the hospitals - if society as a whole is going to survive this thing.

    That bloody terrifies me. Most of the people I love are either old, medically vulnerable to the disease, or both. This whole episode is an unending nightmare, and at times I feel like if we all make it out the other side alive it'll be nothing short of a miracle.

    Life presently consists of traipsing back and forth to work and spending the remainder of the time mostly holed up in the flat and trying not to let the situation get the better of one - and I'm very aware of the fact that I'm better off than many. At least I still have a job and I don't have to worry about keeping several kids fed and paying the rent or the mortgage. The cumulative effects of poverty, anxiety, bereavement, isolation and confinement are going to send half the population around the twist before this is all done - whatever year that finally turns out to be.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Good points MattW.

    I guess that in the early stages some of the language and memes were especially stark. With hindsight I think 'herd immunity' was an incredibly inept and ill-conceived phrase. Even if the point behind it was reasonable, it conjured up everything wrong, and then some. Being told by Whitehall mandarins that the rest of us are basically herds of wildebeest out on the lower class plains, with the stragglers picked off by lions wasn't too felicitous.

    Then there were some rather callous posts and articles in the right wing press more-or-less suggesting we needed to throw old people onto the sacrificial bonfire in order to appease the economic gods.

    My sense increasingly is that a lot of people under 60 are prepared to take their chances for a better quality of life. Get it once and hopefully survive, then get on and live.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    I guess there is going to be a lot of competition for the Darwin award this year:

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/virginia-pastor-who-held-packed-church-service-dies-of-coronavirus/
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    What are the chances we decide to relax the lockdown just as those who have gone before us are seeing the start of a second wave? Singapore, an early success, has now imposed a more draconian lockdown as cases resurge.Most of China’s new cases (they say) are Chinese returning from Russia.

    The trouble is we still do not know how the virus is spread in practice rather than in theory. We can identify hotspots by location, by occupation and even by ethnicity but we do cannot explain them. Until more work is done on this, any relaxation will be, if not a leap in the dark, then educated guesswork.
    And until we find a virus or a cure (or both). That's the clincher the world is waiting on. Until then it's going to be tough. An excellent thread again by Mike.

    I get the sense an increasing number of people are starting to think the hitherto unthinkable: that this is a virus we have to learn to live with. Or, rather, death is something we have to learn to live with. I was chatting yesterday to a young friend in London, mid-twenties, and she said just this. That her friends are taking precautions but that they're also starting to roll the dice. Another friend of mine said that sooner or later we're just going to have to suck it up.
    The young, of course, are also the group who are (a) least likely to die of the disease and (b) most likely to be reduced to penury by the effects of the lockdown.

    By extension, they are probably (c) the group most likely to tire of the lockdown and begin to violate it en masse if the Government doesn't compromise with their needs and wishes and start to throttle back a bit.

    The "tightrope walking" exercise that the Danes and Austrians are embarking upon is one that the UK will have to copy, not straight away but certainly in the not-too-distant future, if public acquiescence to more limited but longer-term restrictions is to be maintained.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    ydoethur said:

    This is the sort of story that illustrates the problem:

    'My firm is viable – but I can’t get a loan'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52288258

    It does, but....
    Reading the story, how long might it be before either of those firms might see continuing business ?
    Refurbishing “pubs, hotels and restaurants”, and “corporate team building” could conceivably be in the deep freeze for the rest of the year, maybe longer.

    I’m not arguing that the loan scheme ought not to be far more accessible, or that they should not get loans (I could be in a similar situation myself in a couple of months’ time), so much as asking what is the endgame for this. As I’m not seeing the way out for a very large number of businesses.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is the sort of story that illustrates the problem:

    'My firm is viable – but I can’t get a loan'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52288258

    It does, but....
    Reading the story, how long might it be before either of those firms might see continuing business ?
    Refurbishing “pubs, hotels and restaurants”, and “corporate team building” could conceivably be in the deep freeze for the rest of the year, maybe longer.

    I’m not arguing that the loan scheme ought not to be far more accessible, or that they should not get loans (I could be in a similar situation myself in a couple of months’ time), so much as asking what is the endgame for this. As I’m not seeing the way out for a very large number of businesses.
    Corporate team-building sounds utterly screwed but the refurbishing thingy might still work, it sounds like pretty much every pub and restaurant is going to need a new ventilation system and a completely different layout...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    British Embassy Jakarta promotes British films while in lockdown- Harry Potter, Johnny English,Notting Hill....and this one:

    https://twitter.com/UKinIndonesia/status/1250288149978214406?s=20

    As I’ve mentioned before, my partner and I have a holiday house in rural Hungary. It’s a quiet village, few streetlights, next to no traffic.

    One January, it’s my turn to fly out there for the weekend to check it’s ok. I arrive and there’s a foot of snow but the house is all fine. Good. I put on the fire and settle in for the night.

    There’s nothing much on the satellite TV and I’m not in the mood to listen to music, so I riffle through the DVDs to see what I might watch. I find 28 Days Later.

    It turns out that watching a zombie film in front of a flickering fire in a dark village on your own with nothing stirring outside in the depths of winter is not that brilliant an idea.

    I lasted 30 minutes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    alex_ said:

    What are the chances we decide to relax the lockdown just as those who have gone before us are seeing the start of a second wave? Singapore, an early success, has now imposed a more draconian lockdown as cases resurge.Most of China’s new cases (they say) are Chinese returning from Russia.

    The trouble is we still do not know how the virus is spread in practice rather than in theory. We can identify hotspots by location, by occupation and even by ethnicity but we do cannot explain them. Until more work is done on this, any relaxation will be, if not a leap in the dark, then educated guesswork.
    One thing I find a bit mysterious about this is that the Japanese really talk like they do understand how the virus is spread in practice:

    image

    ...yet nobody else really seems to be saying this. Somebody's wrong, no idea who...
    I don't understand what you're on about (sorry). What they're saying is exactly what every other Gov't and health organisation around the world is saying. There's no difference at all. Their 3 C's are social distancing.

    We know it spreads through close contact, clustering, crowds.
    His point is that the Japanese are the only ones who appear to be basing their policy responses specifically on combatting these things, and not going beyond that with strong “lockdown” measures which damage the economy with little material impact on the spread of the disease, and certainly little impact on death rates. Remember that due to things like viral load, there is arguably too much focus on case numbers and not enough on severe case numbers. So yourself jumping into the shower every time you get a delivery is a massive overreaction. Maybe you can catch it off a delivery parcel, but the viral load will be so small that catching it like that is probably actually something you should welcome, not go to extreme lengths to avoid.

    EiT then constantly ruins this message by taking a bizarre position that the U.K. govt is uniquely bad/incompetent, and is under the misguided belief that we are prisoners in our own homes (we aren’t), when they are taking policy measures that are barely distinguishable than the vast majority of other countries (and are thus far avoiding the collapse of our health system or a catastrophic collapse in public support). If anything, the UK’s lockdown measures are on the less harsh side of the norm, but this doesn’t fit with his narrative either so he ignores this.
    It doesn’t fit with the government narrative, either.
    The only message getting through, virtue of its repetition ad nauseam, is ‘stay at home; save lives”. However nuanced policy might be intended to be.
    That is EIT’s point.
  • blairfblairf Posts: 98
    The OBR's work is a great starting point, and it is brilliant that they have done it and released it. But....

    I believe it under-estimates the impact, and doesn't address any of the policy implications (that is not there job). The economy will not be back to pre-virus normal in 6 months. not going to happen. To use the OBR phrase, economic 'scarring' will be grave.

    Large rises in tax, and cuts to previous untouchable areas of spending are coming. Get prepared for that, it is unavoidable.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,087
    edited April 2020
    alex_ said:

    What are the chances we decide to relax the lockdown just as those who have gone before us are seeing the start of a second wave? Singapore, an early success, has now imposed a more draconian lockdown as cases resurge.Most of China’s new cases (they say) are Chinese returning from Russia.

    The trouble is we still do not know how the virus is spread in practice rather than in theory. We can identify hotspots by location, by occupation and even by ethnicity but we do cannot explain them. Until more work is done on this, any relaxation will be, if not a leap in the dark, then educated guesswork.
    One thing I find a bit mysterious about this is that the Japanese really talk like they do understand how the virus is spread in practice:

    image

    ...yet nobody else really seems to be saying this. Somebody's wrong, no idea who...
    I don't understand what you're on about (sorry). What they're saying is exactly what every other Gov't and health organisation around the world is saying. There's no difference at all. Their 3 C's are social distancing.

    We know it spreads through close contact, clustering, crowds.
    His point is that the Japanese are the only ones who appear to be basing their policy responses specifically on combatting these things, and not going beyond that with strong “lockdown” measures which damage the economy with little material impact on the spread of the disease, and certainly little impact on death rates. Remember that due to things like viral load, there is arguably too much focus on case numbers and not enough on severe case numbers. So yourself jumping into the shower every time you get a delivery is a massive overreaction. Maybe you can catch it off a delivery parcel, but the viral load will be so small that catching it like that is probably actually something you should welcome, not go to extreme lengths to avoid.

    EiT then constantly ruins this message by taking a bizarre position that the U.K. govt is uniquely bad/incompetent, and is under the misguided belief that we are prisoners in our own homes (we aren’t), when they are taking policy measures that are barely distinguishable than the vast majority of other countries (and are thus far avoiding the collapse of our health system or a catastrophic collapse in public support). If anything, the UK’s lockdown measures are on the less harsh side of the norm, but this doesn’t fit with his narrative either so he ignores this.
    Agree with your points, @_Alex.

    Just relistening to the press conference from 12 March, and there is plenty of discussion of the points in the Japanese poster.

    A lot of people were putting their own measures in place early on - personally I did it in early March in prep for eg sanitising anything coming into the house with surgical spirit (had some trouble finding some - mine came from a farm supplier in Cornwall :-) ), trying to get used to not touching my face, adjusting quarterly food orders etc. Again for the individual it is about risk management and practicality vs vulnerability of the individual / household, and what measures are thought to be appropriate.

    I'm now in the - arguably overkill - habit of washing my hands even after doing something in the back garden or touching gloves that I wore outside and swabbed when I came back in, but for me it helps maintain the habit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is the sort of story that illustrates the problem:

    'My firm is viable – but I can’t get a loan'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52288258

    It does, but....
    Reading the story, how long might it be before either of those firms might see continuing business ?
    Refurbishing “pubs, hotels and restaurants”, and “corporate team building” could conceivably be in the deep freeze for the rest of the year, maybe longer.

    I’m not arguing that the loan scheme ought not to be far more accessible, or that they should not get loans (I could be in a similar situation myself in a couple of months’ time), so much as asking what is the endgame for this. As I’m not seeing the way out for a very large number of businesses.
    Corporate team-building sounds utterly screwed but the refurbishing thingy might still work, it sounds like pretty much every pub and restaurant is going to need a new ventilation system and a completely different layout...
    And how many are going to be able to pay for that, and how soon might they start doing so ?
    The point is that without some kind of idea of how we exit this, any investment for the future will remain in the deep freeze for the vast majority of businesses (there will be exceptions, of course).
    The initial response from Sunak was excellent, but thinking seems to have stalled.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    The data for hydroxychloroquine continue to look poor.

    https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1250090725582295040
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    MattW said:

    alex_ said:

    What are the chances we decide to relax the lockdown just as those who have gone before us are seeing the start of a second wave? Singapore, an early success, has now imposed a more draconian lockdown as cases resurge.Most of China’s new cases (they say) are Chinese returning from Russia.

    The trouble is we still do not know how the virus is spread in practice rather than in theory. We can identify hotspots by location, by occupation and even by ethnicity but we do cannot explain them. Until more work is done on this, any relaxation will be, if not a leap in the dark, then educated guesswork.
    One thing I find a bit mysterious about this is that the Japanese really talk like they do understand how the virus is spread in practice:

    image

    ...yet nobody else really seems to be saying this. Somebody's wrong, no idea who...
    I don't understand what you're on about (sorry). What they're saying is exactly what every other Gov't and health organisation around the world is saying. There's no difference at all. Their 3 C's are social distancing.

    We know it spreads through close contact, clustering, crowds.
    His point is that the Japanese are the only ones who appear to be basing their policy responses specifically on combatting these things, and not going beyond that with strong “lockdown” measures which damage the economy with little material impact on the spread of the disease, and certainly little impact on death rates. Remember that due to things like viral load, there is arguably too much focus on case numbers and not enough on severe case numbers. So yourself jumping into the shower every time you get a delivery is a massive overreaction. Maybe you can catch it off a delivery parcel, but the viral load will be so small that catching it like that is probably actually something you should welcome, not go to extreme lengths to avoid.

    EiT then constantly ruins this message by taking a bizarre position that the U.K. govt is uniquely bad/incompetent, and is under the misguided belief that we are prisoners in our own homes (we aren’t), when they are taking policy measures that are barely distinguishable than the vast majority of other countries (and are thus far avoiding the collapse of our health system or a catastrophic collapse in public support). If anything, the UK’s lockdown measures are on the less harsh side of the norm, but this doesn’t fit with his narrative either so he ignores this.
    Agree with your points, @_Alex.

    Just relistening to the press conference from 12 March, and there is plenty of discussion of the points in the Japanese poster.

    A lot of people were putting their own measures in place early on - personally I did it in early March in prep for eg sanitising anything coming into the house with surgical spirit (had some trouble finding some - mine came from a farm supplier in Cornwall :-) ), trying to get used to not touching my face, adjusting quarterly food orders etc. Again for the individual it is about risk management and practicality vs vulnerability of the individual / household, and what measures are thought to be appropriate.

    I'm now in the - arguably overkill - habit of washing my hands even after doing something in the back garden or touching gloves that I wore outside and swabbed when I came back in, but for me it helps maintain the habit.
    But do you have underlying health conditions which mandate taking action to try and avoid catching it under any circumstances? And/or do you need to avoid catching it because you have regular contact with particularly vulnerable people? Because if not (and happy to be contradicted on this) you are unnecessarily prioritising avoidance of catching the virus, with avoiding catching it in a harmful way. And unless you are intending to lock yourself in isolation for the rest of your life that just seems pointless.

    And there are probably a huge range of activities that you engage in in “normal” times which you would not do if you applied the same risk averse approach as you do to this.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    The trick for Sunak is not to avoid economic cost (that’s inevitable, whatever route is taken), but to avoid what the OBR refers to as ‘economic scarring’.

    His interventions need to be (and, to be fair, appear to be intended to be) aimed at allowing the fastest and completist possible bounceback afterwards.

    A one off hit of 20%, 30%, 40% of GDP in borrowing can be taken in stride if the economy, employment, and so forth come back online rapidly afterwards.

    A false economy would be to aim to save 5 or 10% in borrowing here at the cost of a prolonged depression and slow recovery afterwards. Or if haste causes extra waves in future.

    Not easy to walk the line. But very necessary. Get it right, and economically, this becomes a blip in our rear view mirror (a big economic blip, to be fair, but still a blip). Get it wrong and we’re rebuilding from it for a generation or two.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Thanks Alex.

    I wonder if I may have had this thing mildly already. I was rough for a week out in Asia back in early February. Guess I won't really know without the kind of test Nigelb mentions below.

    I see now about EiT and as mentioned the UK Gov't isn't really now doing anything different from the rest. Fewer tests, otherwise similar.

    Hopefully soon the country will reach a sensible balance between lockdown and Peter - let's all gather in the pub - Hitchens.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    TYPO in the last paragraph: hardships

    The unspoken question is what happens to the economic support package if the lockdown turns into a longer, or repeated, event.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    alex_ said:


    His point is that the Japanese are the only ones who appear to be basing their policy responses specifically on combatting these things, and not going beyond that with strong “lockdown” measures which damage the economy with little material impact on the spread of the disease, and certainly little impact on death rates. Remember that due to things like viral load, there is arguably too much focus on case numbers and not enough on severe case numbers. So yourself jumping into the shower every time you get a delivery is a massive overreaction. Maybe you can catch it off a delivery parcel, but the viral load will be so small that catching it like that is probably actually something you should welcome, not go to extreme lengths to avoid.

    EiT then constantly ruins this message by taking a bizarre position that the U.K. govt is uniquely bad/incompetent, and is under the misguided belief that we are prisoners in our own homes (we aren’t), when they are taking policy measures that are barely distinguishable than the vast majority of other countries (and are thus far avoiding the collapse of our health system or a catastrophic collapse in public support). If anything, the UK’s lockdown measures are on the less harsh side of the norm, but this doesn’t fit with his narrative either so he ignores this.

    Either I'm terrible at writing or you're terrible at reading.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Hopefully the scales are falling from the eyes of those outside Scotland who can’t see Nippy for the decisive figure who will play the bigot card when under pressure.



  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    edited April 2020
    The media seem obsessed with small differences in medical stats between countries but have so far shown relatively little interest in comparing respective approaches to the economy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    edited April 2020
    Good long read article in Nature, which delves into the complexities of testing.

    https://twitter.com/NatureNews/status/1250129207189032962
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    edited April 2020
    Nigelb said:
    That would equate to an apparent national fatality rate of 0.3% by my reckoning. The evidence that's emerging in the West seems consistent enough with apparent fatality rates rising from - say - 0.1% early in the outbreak, when numbers are rising rapidly, to around 0.5% eventually.
  • SockySocky Posts: 404
    edited April 2020
    Nigelb said:


    The initial response from Sunak was excellent, but thinking seems to have stalled.

    I wonder if they are simply stalling waiting for more evidence?

    The potential of a good antibody test has been discussed at length. What is new now is that several nations are prototyping exit strategies. As ever real-world testing beats theory.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,181
    The right wing press are already printing reassuring nonsense about the recovery and crowing over the continued popularity of BoJo. I guess this is how you know how scared they are. It is just whistling in the dark.

    While it's generally true that the Brits prefer leaders that they can imagine going for a pint with, the problem is that we have one of the weakest cabinets in 200 years. They are basically a bunch of fairly useless nonentities chosen by the PM for many reasons, but none of them to do with competence. Patel and Hancock wouldn't last the month in any effective government.

    The interlocking crises that are now underway would challenge even the steeliest leadership but we have a weak, and occasionally cowardly, PM. I think we will quickly find that government by baby pictures in Hello magazine will pretty soon simply annoy the voters.

    The increasingly likely removal of the disgrace in the White House- anything, even a senile sex pest, is better than the current horror in the West Wing- will begin to make BoJo look ever more lonely.

    The UK government has stuffed this up, and only Trumplestiltskin has handled things worse. The voters are already beginning to ask questions and they do not like the answers that they are being given.

    So Tories (and GOP) enjoy the moment: it may be the last time for a very, very long time indeed.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Loving that the GOP just saw themselves get destroyed in a race they were favourites in after forcing the voters to vote in person react like this to questions on absentee voting

    https://twitter.com/J_Hancock/status/1250173437173288967?s=19
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Danish schools back today.

    Given deaths have peaked in England - we need a target date for our schools to return - and for the range of shops permitted to open to increase.
  • SockySocky Posts: 404
    TGOHF666 said:

    Hopefully the scales are falling from the eyes of those outside Scotland who can’t see Nippy for the decisive figure who will play the bigot card when under pressure.

    We want independence! (except for PPE)...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    So to be clear, since looking at the other comments I'm leaning towards "I'm terrible at writing", when I posted the Japanese poster and said, "Somebody's wrong, no idea who...", that's not sarcasm: I really do mean that I don't know who's wrong.

    I don't *think* (although I may be wrong) that the most successful countries - SK and Taiwan - are going as hard on the "three c's" type stuff - and in particular in the *combination* of those. (I've been watching a little bit of Chinese telly and it's not really what I'm seeing, but my Chinese is still very sucky...) It might be that the Japanese emphasis on it is the equivalent of putting armour on the bits of the plane with the bullet holes in them, and the contagion happening elsewhere but when it does their contract tracing isn't catching it.

    I didn't bring this up as a criticism of the UK government - the UK government has made horrendous mistakes which will be incredibly costly, but they were towards the beginning of the crisis, and having got into the position they have, I don't think they're doing too much obviously wrong. Meanwhile Japan has had all kinds of very serious failures, probably with more bureaucratic incompetence than the UK, but they managed to get one thing right, which was early, voluntary, low-to-medium-disruption action ("please work from home where practical and avoid crowded places" etc), which bought them a lot of time, and may well work as a long-term model for everybody, with a few more tweaks.
  • SockySocky Posts: 404
    TGOHF666 said:

    Danish schools back today.

    Given deaths have peaked in England - we need a target date for our schools to return - and for the range of shops permitted to open to increase.

    Unless things have changed since I was at school, the summer term is the least important. Why not just bring the summer holiday forward, and start the autumn term in July/August?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    TGOHF666 said:

    Danish schools back today.

    Given deaths have peaked in England -

    We don't know that for sure. Not yet.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136


    I don't understand what you're on about (sorry). What they're saying is exactly what every other Gov't and health organisation around the world is saying. There's no difference at all. Their 3 C's are social distancing.

    We know it spreads through close contact, clustering, crowds.

    Maybe everyone else is saying the same thing and I'm missing it but the emphasis in Japan is the *intersection* of those things, and particularly *closed spaces*. If this theory of the thing is correct then you should be able to reopen large parts of the economy without too much damage - for instance, it sounds like trains should be OK if you make sure there's adequate ventilation, pubs should be able to reopen their gardens, offices should be able to resume with layout changes, etc.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    TGOHF666 said:

    Danish schools back today.

    Given deaths have peaked in England -

    We don't know that for sure. Not yet.
    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1250070108816498691?s=21
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited April 2020
    Cicero said:

    The right wing press are already printing reassuring nonsense about the recovery and crowing over the continued popularity of BoJo.

    I'm left-of-centre, often remarkably so and I'm currently in love with Boris. He savaged Margaret Thatcher's appalling comments about society and then championed the NHS in one of the most stirring messages I can ever recall from a leader. Heck, he even nationalised the railways :)

    As I said yesterday, he's the new Tony Blair. He didn't win Labour London for the tories by being a rabid right-winger. Following his near-death experience the true Boris is emerging again, unfettered by the loons on the right.

    As far as I'm concerned he can currently do no wrong.
  • Life presently consists of traipsing back and forth to work and spending the remainder of the time mostly holed up in the flat and trying not to let the situation get the better of one - and I'm very aware of the fact that I'm better off than many. At least I still have a job and I don't have to worry about keeping several kids fed and paying the rent or the mortgage. The cumulative effects of poverty, anxiety, bereavement, isolation and confinement are going to send half the population around the twist before this is all done - whatever year that finally turns out to be.

    Morning all! "Round the twist" needs to be taken very seriously. I am Very Lucky. I am working (hard) in a rather well paid job in an industry that has become busier rather than shut down due to the virus. Yes running the business has become hard, with constant massive questions of uncertainty over keeping the factory team safe / available Labour/ available cash. Yes I am working from home and thus being forced to enjoy the fruits of my Labour's and the bosom of my family. Yes I've been able to keep in contact with people via endless Zoom conferences. Yes I'm hauling my fat arse out for runs and bike rides (was a regular in the gym before so not that unusual).

    But I'm really struggling mentally. Every day is Exactly the Same. I am not worrying much for friends or relatives or about the virus at all - my worry is more for our society and what of it will be left at the end. I am not worried about how to pay my bills or having enough to eat. I am not entombed in a bedsit like I once lived in being eaten alive by bed bugs - other are.

    How we balance off their problems of daily existence with fighting the virus is equal. No point saving people from Covid 19 only instead to kill them from poverty or malnutrition or suicide or violent partner. Once this is over there will be a fortune to be made by divorce lawyers and maternity nurses and psychiatrists.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    Nigelb said:

    Good long read article in Nature, which delves into the complexities of testing.

    https://twitter.com/NatureNews/status/1250129207189032962

    Interesting, thanks for posting.

    From the article "A Nature investigation of several university labs certified to test for the virus finds that they have been held up by regulatory, logistic and administrative obstacles, and stymied by the fragmented US health-care system. Even as testing backlogs mounted for hospitals in California, for example, clinics were turning away offers of testing from certified academic labs because they didn’t use compatible health-record software, or didn’t have existing contracts with the hospital."

    I find this interesting, because many have been saying that Germany's ability to do lost of tests is a result of the German decentralised health system, whereas the centralised NHS was not able to expand to the sudden increase in demand. In reality we need to remember David Mitchell's phrase "I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that".
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Great post RP. You're right.

    The only way to stay sane is to flout the lockdown and I think everyone should do so. It's more important to cover up and keep your distance, but above all get out.

    Mind you, there's more to it than just that as you so penetratingly describe.

    I hope you're okay. I know many are not.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    edited April 2020
    TGOHF666 said:

    Danish schools back today.

    Given deaths have peaked in England - we need a target date for our schools to return - and for the range of shops permitted to open to increase.

    Not sure that UK deaths have peaked yet. The experience of Italy, France and Spain is the reaching the peak, plateau and descent are by no means an overnight occurrence. The easing of the Spanish lockdown still leaves the country more restricted than the UK. Where we are now shows the unrealism behind the calls for an earlier lockdown. It is critical now for everyone, especially the media, to take a responsible attitude to easing up. I am not optimistic.

    Edit: Osborne's Standard headline yesterday implying most of Europe was opening up again was typical of this approach at its very worst.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Nigelb said:
    Far and away the major cause of spread was within families, though still quite a few unknowns.

    Failing to test suspect cases, and failing to isolate them pretty much guarantees continuing transmission.

    On March 11 our government flipped from one extreme to the other, abandoning contact tracing and community testing, to the point where effectively none is done.

    We have to get back to test, trace and isolate for the lock down to end. The Nightingale hospitals should be used for isolation of cases. Leaving them at home just doesn't work.



  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    edited April 2020
    TGOHF666 said:


    Given deaths have peaked in England

    "Given" is I'm afraid too strong an assumption. The signs are good, but remember that every Tuesday there has been a jump in cases and deaths. Due to the Bank Holidays today is effectively a Tuesday. I hope there isn't a jump, and I hope deaths in the UK have peaked, just don't jump to conclusions.

    Edit to say the Edit facility for me in Firefox is no problem.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    So to be clear, since looking at the other comments I'm leaning towards "I'm terrible at writing", when I posted the Japanese poster and said, "Somebody's wrong, no idea who...", that's not sarcasm: I really do mean that I don't know who's wrong.

    I don't *think* (although I may be wrong) that the most successful countries - SK and Taiwan - are going as hard on the "three c's" type stuff - and in particular in the *combination* of those. (I've been watching a little bit of Chinese telly and it's not really what I'm seeing, but my Chinese is still very sucky...) It might be that the Japanese emphasis on it is the equivalent of putting armour on the bits of the plane with the bullet holes in them, and the contagion happening elsewhere but when it does their contract tracing isn't catching it.

    I didn't bring this up as a criticism of the UK government - the UK government has made horrendous mistakes which will be incredibly costly, but they were towards the beginning of the crisis, and having got into the position they have, I don't think they're doing too much obviously wrong. Meanwhile Japan has had all kinds of very serious failures, probably with more bureaucratic incompetence than the UK, but they managed to get one thing right, which was early, voluntary, low-to-medium-disruption action ("please work from home where practical and avoid crowded places" etc), which bought them a lot of time, and may well work as a long-term model for everybody, with a few more tweaks.

    I think there is a big problem with the language of “lockdown”, whether in the U.K. or elsewhere. It would be fine if the serious and achievable policy objective was eradication (or expectation of a rapidly developed and implemented vaccine). But it’s not. And the U.K. and the rest of Europe are facing this first wave at the most benign time. We have huge spare capacity in our hospitals because of the ability to cancel all non emergency surgery and routine operations. But a future wave will come in winter. The capacity will not be there and will be exacerbated by the “routine” or non urgent operations developing into necessary ones (delayed cancer surgery etc).

    Somehow the language has to shift from measures being imposed being by govt edict, towards measures imposed by collective personal responsibility. So that the lockdown can come off but public behaviour doesn’t change significantly. And I can’t see how we get there.

    Trouble is that more nuanced messaging a la Japanese poster undermines the lockdown. So we just get “stay home save lives”.



  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:
    That would equate to an apparent national fatality rate of 0.3% by my reckoning. The evidence that's emerging in the West seems consistent enough with apparent fatality rates rising from - say - 0.1% early in the outbreak, when numbers are rising rapidly, to around 0.5% eventually.
    Sorry - scratch that. By "infected" they mean currently testing positive. Not an antibody test.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Danish schools back today.

    Given deaths have peaked in England -

    We don't know that for sure. Not yet.
    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1250070108816498691?s=21
    He is certainly lying by saying "pretty certain". As I said the signs are good, but being over confident is very foolish.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Cicero said:

    The right wing press are already printing reassuring nonsense about the recovery and crowing over the continued popularity of BoJo. I guess this is how you know how scared they are. It is just whistling in the dark.

    While it's generally true that the Brits prefer leaders that they can imagine going for a pint with, the problem is that we have one of the weakest cabinets in 200 years. They are basically a bunch of fairly useless nonentities chosen by the PM for many reasons, but none of them to do with competence. Patel and Hancock wouldn't last the month in any effective government.

    The interlocking crises that are now underway would challenge even the steeliest leadership but we have a weak, and occasionally cowardly, PM. I think we will quickly find that government by baby pictures in Hello magazine will pretty soon simply annoy the voters.

    The increasingly likely removal of the disgrace in the White House- anything, even a senile sex pest, is better than the current horror in the West Wing- will begin to make BoJo look ever more lonely.

    The UK government has stuffed this up, and only Trumplestiltskin has handled things worse. The voters are already beginning to ask questions and they do not like the answers that they are being given.

    So Tories (and GOP) enjoy the moment: it may be the last time for a very, very long time indeed.

    Lol
    have you seen Keir Starmer ?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    Test
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,087
    edited April 2020
    TGOHF666 said:

    Danish schools back today.

    Given deaths have peaked in England - we need a target date for our schools to return - and for the range of shops permitted to open to increase.

    We won't know that for at least a fortnight since the death certification process takes that long for deaths outside hospital.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287

    Test

    Still no edit facility even after refresh.. will.try firefox
  • SockySocky Posts: 404

    it sounds like trains should be OK if you make sure there's adequate ventilation, pubs should be able to reopen their gardens, offices should be able to resume with layout changes, etc.

    I can see an issue with the first of those. How do you practically open up trains to commuting unless you keep numbers of travellers well below norm?

    In particular, the London underground seems almost designed to spread disease.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    Test
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Danish schools back today.

    Given deaths have peaked in England -

    We don't know that for sure. Not yet.
    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1250070108816498691?s=21
    Spy Wednesday? I've never heard of that but sounds like fun.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    alex_ said:


    Somehow the language has to shift from measures being imposed being by govt edict, towards measures imposed by collective personal responsibility. So that the lockdown can come off but public behaviour doesn’t change significantly. And I can’t see how we get there.

    Trouble is that more nuanced messaging a la Japanese poster undermines the lockdown. So we just get “stay home save lives”.

    I'm sure that's right, and it's a genuinely hard problem; The classic fail case being when the Japanese government announced they'd be reopening schools, and everyone else took that as a sign that the crisis was over, thus bringing the crisis back.

    At the same time I think a *lack* of nuance also risks undermining the policy. We saw this with masks where the reality was a little bit complex "they help stop spread a little bit, they might help protect you but not much and it could be the opposite, but we need to prioritize supply for medical staff" and officials turned that into with "masks don't help", which ended up with everyone just thinking they were full of shit, and most governments ultimately reversing themselves.

    I think the same thing will happen with restrictions on going out, where police have ended up harassing people for sunbathing or sitting on a bench. It may have been historically necessary to start with simple, crude, wide-spectrum restrictions, but if they're dumb and everyone can see that they're dumb then they won't be sustainable.

    One thing that might help here is to start experimenting and be very open about the fact that you're experimenting. Remove particular restrictions in particular places, get people talking about "the Wales experiment" or "the Norfolk model". This goes against the grain for governments, because they feel like they need to look like they know what they're doing, but ultimately in this situation nobody really knows what they're going, and people are probably paying enough attention to be able to grasp the trade-offs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756

    Thanks Alex.

    I wonder if I may have had this thing mildly already. I was rough for a week out in Asia back in early February. Guess I won't really know without the kind of test Nigelb mentions below.

    That's interesting. We had another poster on here a while back called SeanT who thought he might have had it as well after spending a week in Thailand.

    I'm sure this is just a coincidence though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    I guess there is going to be a lot of competition for the Darwin award this year:

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/virginia-pastor-who-held-packed-church-service-dies-of-coronavirus/

    Sorry Pastor, but God's sitting this one out.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Danish schools back today.

    Given deaths have peaked in England -

    We don't know that for sure. Not yet.
    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1250070108816498691?s=21
    Spy Wednesday? I've never heard of that but sounds like fun.
    A view to a kill?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    eristdoof said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Danish schools back today.

    Given deaths have peaked in England -

    We don't know that for sure. Not yet.
    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1250070108816498691?s=21
    He is certainly lying by saying "pretty certain". As I said the signs are good, but being over confident is very foolish.
    Last Wednesday is the last day where reporting will not have been particularly affected by the bank holiday weekend. It’s far too soon to say that it was the peak. The most you could say is that it is possible.

    Given the mood music in Monday’s briefing, the government doesn’t seem to think the peak has been reached.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:
    Far and away the major cause of spread was within families, though still quite a few unknowns.

    Failing to test suspect cases, and failing to isolate them pretty much guarantees continuing transmission.

    On March 11 our government flipped from one extreme to the other, abandoning contact tracing and community testing, to the point where effectively none is done.

    We have to get back to test, trace and isolate for the lock down to end. The Nightingale hospitals should be used for isolation of cases. Leaving them at home just doesn't work.
    Those "unknown" bars - especially later on - are still a worry.
  • SockySocky Posts: 404
    edited April 2020

    One thing that might help here is to start experimenting and be very open about the fact that you're experimenting. Remove particular restrictions in particular places, get people talking about "the Wales experiment" or "the Norfolk model". This goes against the grain for governments, because they feel like they need to look like they know what they're doing, but ultimately in this situation nobody really knows what they're going, and people are probably paying enough attention to be able to grasp the trade-offs.

    Good points. This is where having a properly functioning, sensible, responsible media would be so useful.

    How we produce that in the next two weeks is a problem though.

    What is the Japanese media like? Are they having a good war?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Socky said:

    it sounds like trains should be OK if you make sure there's adequate ventilation, pubs should be able to reopen their gardens, offices should be able to resume with layout changes, etc.

    I can see an issue with the first of those. How do you practically open up trains to commuting unless you keep numbers of travellers well below norm?

    In particular, the London underground seems almost designed to spread disease.
    I dunno, maybe the ventilation is already good enough, maybe it depends on the type of train... (Help us, Sunil!)

    If you need to restrict commuting then yes, you need to keep the number of travellers down. This may be doable with just continued work-from-home-where-practical advice, potentially with sticks and carrots (tax breaks, burdensome office virus prevention requirements etc). You might also literally ration usage and require booking in advance to travel at congested times. This also has knock-on effects because if you can get people on weird off-peak shifts then you also spread the load for shops and restaurants etc.
  • I started to write "Manufacture 300m masks. Issue all citizens with a mask. Make everyone wear masks.". As a partial solution to how we reopen the economy, maintaining social distancing but trying to protect people until they develop a vaccine.

    I *do not* want to have to wear a mask. Its confining. But if thats the only way to restore some kind of restoration of a new normal?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    eristdoof said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Danish schools back today.

    Given deaths have peaked in England -

    We don't know that for sure. Not yet.
    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1250070108816498691?s=21
    He is certainly lying by saying "pretty certain". As I said the signs are good, but being over confident is very foolish.
    Last Wednesday is the last day where reporting will not have been particularly affected by the bank holiday weekend. It’s far too soon to say that it was the peak. The most you could say is that it is possible.

    Given the mood music in Monday’s briefing, the government doesn’t seem to think the peak has been reached.
    They are being very, very cautious. The know as soon as they admit the peak has happened, the pressure to end lockdown from the media will be immense. They need to be able to say "the peak has passed, and we will take the following very gradual measures to come out of this....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    ydoethur said:

    Thanks Alex.

    I wonder if I may have had this thing mildly already. I was rough for a week out in Asia back in early February. Guess I won't really know without the kind of test Nigelb mentions below.

    That's interesting. We had another poster on here a while back called SeanT who thought he might have had it as well after spending a week in Thailand.

    I'm sure this is just a coincidence though.
    Hypochondriasis is a lot more common than Coronavirus. Particularly last January and February.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I started to write "Manufacture 300m masks. Issue all citizens with a mask. Make everyone wear masks.". As a partial solution to how we reopen the economy, maintaining social distancing but trying to protect people until they develop a vaccine.

    I *do not* want to have to wear a mask. Its confining. But if thats the only way to restore some kind of restoration of a new normal?

    We wear crash helmets on motorbikes and seatbelts in cars. These are confining and now accepted as normal. If masks are needed to get some form of normality, then masks it is.

    Perhaps one of the design gurus can come up with a design that feels more comfortable and bring them out in stylish versions.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624
    ydoethur said:

    Thanks Alex.

    I wonder if I may have had this thing mildly already. I was rough for a week out in Asia back in early February. Guess I won't really know without the kind of test Nigelb mentions below.

    That's interesting. We had another poster on here a while back called SeanT who thought he might have had it as well after spending a week in Thailand.

    I'm sure this is just a coincidence though.
    We are all SeanT
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    eristdoof said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Danish schools back today.

    Given deaths have peaked in England -

    We don't know that for sure. Not yet.
    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1250070108816498691?s=21
    He is certainly lying by saying "pretty certain". As I said the signs are good, but being over confident is very foolish.
    Last Wednesday is the last day where reporting will not have been particularly affected by the bank holiday weekend. It’s far too soon to say that it was the peak. The most you could say is that it is possible.

    Given the mood music in Monday’s briefing, the government doesn’t seem to think the peak has been reached.
    They are being very, very cautious. The know as soon as they admit the peak has happened, the pressure to end lockdown from the media will be immense. They need to be able to say "the peak has passed, and we will take the following very gradual measures to come out of this....
    Rightly so. However, Monday’s briefing was less “it’s too soon to say” and more “brace yourselves for worse to come”.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    The walking Captain has added half a million more overnight.

    Now coming up to £4.5m......
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624

    I started to write "Manufacture 300m masks. Issue all citizens with a mask. Make everyone wear masks.". As a partial solution to how we reopen the economy, maintaining social distancing but trying to protect people until they develop a vaccine.

    I *do not* want to have to wear a mask. Its confining. But if thats the only way to restore some kind of restoration of a new normal?

    We wear crash helmets on motorbikes and seatbelts in cars. These are confining and now accepted as normal. If masks are needed to get some form of normality, then masks it is.

    Perhaps one of the design gurus can come up with a design that feels more comfortable and bring them out in stylish versions.
    As to style - bags of designs for cyclists etc out there. Some are already N95.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    edited April 2020
    Meanwhile on LBC they keep playing Bet Victor adverts "Hey Harry, who will win the football tonight?"

    Who is managing the media campaign for Bet Victor? Who manages ad scheduling for LBC? Have neither of these stopped to think that they make their companies sound like utter tools playing out this stuff? They're telling everyone what we can't do any more. Whilst debating the impacts of the lockdown on people...

    I've gone through our social media plan with a fine toothcomb and weeded out stuff that just isn't appropriate any more. And we're only "broadcasting" on Facebook Twitter and Instagram. I'd be horrendously embarrassed to be responsible for playing out stuff on the radio to millions. Repeatedly. Every Day.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    eristdoof said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Danish schools back today.

    Given deaths have peaked in England -

    We don't know that for sure. Not yet.
    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1250070108816498691?s=21
    He is certainly lying by saying "pretty certain". As I said the signs are good, but being over confident is very foolish.
    Last Wednesday is the last day where reporting will not have been particularly affected by the bank holiday weekend. It’s far too soon to say that it was the peak. The most you could say is that it is possible.

    Given the mood music in Monday’s briefing, the government doesn’t seem to think the peak has been reached.
    Even post peak there is likely to be a longish plateau period during which significant easing of the lockdown could be very dangerous. Even now in Italy there are at best a mixture of good and bad days and they are around a fortnight ahead of Spain and France. Current speculation is going to be very disappointed when they cotton on to the reality of an 'eased lockdown'.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997

    I started to write "Manufacture 300m masks. Issue all citizens with a mask. Make everyone wear masks.". As a partial solution to how we reopen the economy, maintaining social distancing but trying to protect people until they develop a vaccine.

    I *do not* want to have to wear a mask. Its confining. But if thats the only way to restore some kind of restoration of a new normal?

    We wear crash helmets on motorbikes and seatbelts in cars. These are confining and now accepted as normal. If masks are needed to get some form of normality, then masks it is.

    Perhaps one of the design gurus can come up with a design that feels more comfortable and bring them out in stylish versions.
    As to style - bags of designs for cyclists etc out there. Some are already N95.
    Surely supply is the problem. Are they disposable? If so, assuming I go out three times a day that's 1000 a year, or 66 billion for the country.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624
    eristdoof said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good long read article in Nature, which delves into the complexities of testing.

    https://twitter.com/NatureNews/status/1250129207189032962

    Interesting, thanks for posting.

    From the article "A Nature investigation of several university labs certified to test for the virus finds that they have been held up by regulatory, logistic and administrative obstacles, and stymied by the fragmented US health-care system. Even as testing backlogs mounted for hospitals in California, for example, clinics were turning away offers of testing from certified academic labs because they didn’t use compatible health-record software, or didn’t have existing contracts with the hospital."

    I find this interesting, because many have been saying that Germany's ability to do lost of tests is a result of the German decentralised health system, whereas the centralised NHS was not able to expand to the sudden increase in demand. In reality we need to remember David Mitchell's phrase "I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that".
    It sounds as if the US case was s a result of a bizarre combination of centralisation - only our test - and completely independent labs.

    As followers of American structures will attest, this sort or worst-possible-combination-of-public-and-private is not uncommon in many areas in America.

    As I understand it, the lab/testing structure in Germany is de-centralised - with reporting to the centre,
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    felix said:

    eristdoof said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Danish schools back today.

    Given deaths have peaked in England -

    We don't know that for sure. Not yet.
    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1250070108816498691?s=21
    He is certainly lying by saying "pretty certain". As I said the signs are good, but being over confident is very foolish.
    Last Wednesday is the last day where reporting will not have been particularly affected by the bank holiday weekend. It’s far too soon to say that it was the peak. The most you could say is that it is possible.

    Given the mood music in Monday’s briefing, the government doesn’t seem to think the peak has been reached.
    Even post peak there is likely to be a longish plateau period during which significant easing of the lockdown could be very dangerous. Even now in Italy there are at best a mixture of good and bad days and they are around a fortnight ahead of Spain and France. Current speculation is going to be very disappointed when they cotton on to the reality of an 'eased lockdown'.
    For myself, this tweet from a very smart IT guy in Japan sums up nicely where we are:

    https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1250304959867785217?s=21
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:
    Far and away the major cause of spread was within families, though still quite a few unknowns.

    Failing to test suspect cases, and failing to isolate them pretty much guarantees continuing transmission.

    On March 11 our government flipped from one extreme to the other, abandoning contact tracing and community testing, to the point where effectively none is done.

    We have to get back to test, trace and isolate for the lock down to end. The Nightingale hospitals should be used for isolation of cases. Leaving them at home just doesn't work.
    Those "unknown" bars - especially later on - are still a worry.
    Though that is where quarantine hospitals come into their own.

    Other must include shopping, takeaways, neighbours, deliveries etc, the usual social contacts of like outside family and work.

    Quarantined test positive people covers these too.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Gompels have been leant on big time and told to change their tune or else. Stronger Together , pooling and sharing my arse.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited April 2020
    malcolmg said:

    Gompels have been leant on big time and told to change their tune or else. Stronger Together , pooling and sharing my arse.
    You always have to be right even when it's the SNP that have been caught out lying to cover their incompetency.

    Of course your typical SNP support hears the word independency and ignores the complete incompetency of those who are shouting it to distract from their mistakes.

    What's worse is that by falsely blaming others, those people will no longer be interested in helping you out - I know that were it my company any Scottish Government order would be automatically rejected - I have enough customers that I refuse to deal with troublesome ones. Life is too short even before a virus could kill me in a week times.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:
    Far and away the major cause of spread was within families, though still quite a few unknowns.

    Failing to test suspect cases, and failing to isolate them pretty much guarantees continuing transmission.

    On March 11 our government flipped from one extreme to the other, abandoning contact tracing and community testing, to the point where effectively none is done.

    We have to get back to test, trace and isolate for the lock down to end. The Nightingale hospitals should be used for isolation of cases. Leaving them at home just doesn't work.
    Those "unknown" bars - especially later on - are still a worry.
    Though that is where quarantine hospitals come into their own.

    Other must include shopping, takeaways, neighbours, deliveries etc, the usual social contacts of like outside family and work.

    Quarantined test positive people covers these too.
    Maybe the Nightingale Hospitals will end up being used for quarantine
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 395

    Meanwhile on LBC they keep playing Bet Victor adverts "Hey Harry, who will win the football tonight?"

    Who is managing the media campaign for Bet Victor? Who manages ad scheduling for LBC? Have neither of these stopped to think that they make their companies sound like utter tools playing out this stuff? They're telling everyone what we can't do any more. Whilst debating the impacts of the lockdown on people...

    I've gone through our social media plan with a fine toothcomb and weeded out stuff that just isn't appropriate any more. And we're only "broadcasting" on Facebook Twitter and Instagram. I'd be horrendously embarrassed to be responsible for playing out stuff on the radio to millions. Repeatedly. Every Day.

    I seem to remember from my Horrible Histories books that there was a fireworks company during WWII who put out adverts that went something like "Hitler is providing the fireworks at the moment but we'll be there as soon as he stops".

    Maybe Bet Victor are just working on the premise that keeping themselves in the public mind is more important than current relevancy? When the first football match resumes perhaps Bet Victor might just float into the mind of someone who doesn't bet very much?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    I started to write "Manufacture 300m masks. Issue all citizens with a mask. Make everyone wear masks.". As a partial solution to how we reopen the economy, maintaining social distancing but trying to protect people until they develop a vaccine.

    I *do not* want to have to wear a mask. Its confining. But if thats the only way to restore some kind of restoration of a new normal?

    This this this this this!

    Without a vaccine or a readily-available effective treatment, compulsory wearing of masks is the only way the general populace will be able to get out of their fucking houses and resume some approximation of normality.

    Another month of lockdown and people will be begging for this solution.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,087
    edited April 2020

    eristdoof said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good long read article in Nature, which delves into the complexities of testing.

    https://twitter.com/NatureNews/status/1250129207189032962

    Interesting, thanks for posting.

    From the article "A Nature investigation of several university labs certified to test for the virus finds that they have been held up by regulatory, logistic and administrative obstacles, and stymied by the fragmented US health-care system. Even as testing backlogs mounted for hospitals in California, for example, clinics were turning away offers of testing from certified academic labs because they didn’t use compatible health-record software, or didn’t have existing contracts with the hospital."

    I find this interesting, because many have been saying that Germany's ability to do lost of tests is a result of the German decentralised health system, whereas the centralised NHS was not able to expand to the sudden increase in demand. In reality we need to remember David Mitchell's phrase "I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that".
    It sounds as if the US case was s a result of a bizarre combination of centralisation - only our test - and completely independent labs.

    As followers of American structures will attest, this sort or worst-possible-combination-of-public-and-private is not uncommon in many areas in America.

    As I understand it, the lab/testing structure in Germany is de-centralised - with reporting to the centre,
    I'm interested in the hot and cold coverage of the NHS.

    We have been told for years that it is the best in the world, on the basis of the Commonwealth Institute surveys which are really opinion polls.

    We are in a position where the Minister does not run it any more, yet is getting it in the neck from the Medical Unions demanding action when PPE is short in a small hospital noone has ever heard of - I would have thought that the logistics people should be the target.

    We are told that the Health Services in Italy and Germany were much better, and world leading, and unfavourable comparisons have been made.

    At the same time we worship at the altar of the national religion every week.

    How on earth will reform that all agree is necessary happen? The "successful systems" in Germany and Italy are very different, yet overall the country is wedded to the precise structural form we currently have.

    Interesting times.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    I started to write "Manufacture 300m masks. Issue all citizens with a mask. Make everyone wear masks.". As a partial solution to how we reopen the economy, maintaining social distancing but trying to protect people until they develop a vaccine.

    I *do not* want to have to wear a mask. Its confining. But if thats the only way to restore some kind of restoration of a new normal?

    This this this this this!

    Without a vaccine or a readily-available effective treatment, compulsory wearing of masks is the only way the general populace will be able to get out of their fucking houses and resume some approximation of normality.

    Another month of lockdown and people will be begging for this solution.
    One which people will follow for one day, then not bother with. I don't have faith in my fellow citizen to be able to follow that rule, frankly.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    malcolmg said:

    Gompels have been leant on big time and told to change their tune or else. Stronger Together , pooling and sharing my arse.
    Extraordinarily generous as that may be of you, I fear it may violate the social distancing regulations...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,087

    eristdoof said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good long read article in Nature, which delves into the complexities of testing.

    https://twitter.com/NatureNews/status/1250129207189032962

    Interesting, thanks for posting.

    From the article "A Nature investigation of several university labs certified to test for the virus finds that they have been held up by regulatory, logistic and administrative obstacles, and stymied by the fragmented US health-care system. Even as testing backlogs mounted for hospitals in California, for example, clinics were turning away offers of testing from certified academic labs because they didn’t use compatible health-record software, or didn’t have existing contracts with the hospital."

    I find this interesting, because many have been saying that Germany's ability to do lost of tests is a result of the German decentralised health system, whereas the centralised NHS was not able to expand to the sudden increase in demand. In reality we need to remember David Mitchell's phrase "I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that".
    It sounds as if the US case was s a result of a bizarre combination of centralisation - only our test - and completely independent labs.

    As followers of American structures will attest, this sort or worst-possible-combination-of-public-and-private is not uncommon in many areas in America.

    As I understand it, the lab/testing structure in Germany is de-centralised - with reporting to the centre,
    German Lander maintain labs.
This discussion has been closed.