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  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918
    eadric said:

    This horror-show looks like a gift to writers, but I am not at all sure it is.

    Partly it's because the reality far outdoes any believable fiction, eg the PM of GB nearly dying, but recovering on Easter Sunday? Any editor would strike that out on grounds of credibility.

    More importantly, I don't think readers like to read about plague.

    I was having this debate with some creative-type friends on Whatsapp the other day: where is all the great plague fiction? Given what a compelling and momentous subject it, and how it can change worlds, it should inspire as much great writing as war (which inspires so much)

    But it doesn't.

    After much head scratching, seeking great fiction which is about the plague, these friends could only come up with

    Camus's The Plague
    The Book of Exodus (!?)
    and maybe Defoe (but that's really journalism)

    It figures quite a lot in Edgar Allan Poe.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,733
    US biotech Gilead is struggling to find new patients for its clinical trial in China:

    Gilead’s Coronavirus Drug Trial Slowed by Lack of Eligible Recruitshttps://www.wsj.com/articles/gileads-coronavirus-drug-trial-slowed-due-to-lack-of-eligible-recruits-11582003594
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Mr. Eadric, I'm mildly surprised there isn't a Grey Death book (zombie apocalypse meets 14th century England).

    Mr Dancer, you should write one yourself.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    BigRich said:

    As Sweden seems to be demonstrating to the would, (only time will fully tell) if sensible advise was given early enough, then a forceful lock-down would not have been necessary. IMO
    I think people are drawing the wrong conclusions from Sweden. If they can implement lockdown by consent rather than by diktat you get to the same result. In practice it seems they can get part of the way by consent.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    eadric said:

    It's so poor it's comic.

    As of today they are predicting 21,310 first wave deaths in total for Italy (nudged up from their prediction of roughly 20,000 yesterday)

    As of yesterday the total ACTUAL deaths in Italy were 20,465. So the UoW are predicting that coronavirus will kill several hundred more Italians in the next few hours...... and then stop. Completely stop. No more deaths.

    It is embarrassingly wrong. I wonder if there is just a computer spunking out these daft numbers and no human ever checks.
    I worry about just what exactly the people creating this model are thinking. Not just massively incorrect input data and death totals that have already basically been reached in the real world, but at the core of their model.

    Their range of prediction for a total for tomorrow are significantly wider than for the forthcoming days or weeks down the road. That is the inverse of what you should be getting. Given all the data to date, you should be able to produce a reasonable prediction for tomorrow, it is further into the future where your confidence should be far less.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    FF43 said:

    Interesting article from the CEO of Germany's biggest ventilator manufacturer:

    https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-ventilator-manufacturer-absolutely-mission-impossible-a-549d1e18-8c21-45f1-846f-cf5ca254b008

    This quote caught my eye:

    "It’s not about [how demanding the device is], but about the person who is attached to it. You have to be able to evaluate the person’s state and know how to precisely adjust the device to first save the person's life and then ensure that they quickly grow healthy again. This requires years of experience"

    We're focused on the equipment but it's the staff that are the critical resource. That's from a manufacturer of that equipment.
    Isn't that the point which Boris was making about the nurses looking after him, that they stayed monitoring and adjusting the equipment for him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,733
    edited April 2020

    Mr Dancer, you should write one yourself.
    He's already cracked the title.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ukpaul said:



    Poor pensioners, though, would be in dire trouble. Maybe if they could sign away a percentage of the property instead, to be realised on their death or if they sell it.
    By definition a pensioner owning a house is not "poor".

    Moreover, let's assume that they are, and have just turned 65. Why are they not realising assets to improve their quality of life? 3% of the value of the house is not a huge amount.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Well UW have updated their nonsense model, now they think the range of possible outcomes is 14k to 50k dead, with a mean projected deaths will be 23,791. That still looks wrong...We are already on 12,000, no way we only see another 2,000 deaths in the next 2-3 months.

    And their error bars for todays death toll was anywhere between ~250 and 4000+....4000+...they really need to turn that model off, it is pumping out total horseshit.

    Anyone could forecast a range of 14k to 50k. It's a useless prediction.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rpjs said:

    From what I hear from Swedish colleagues, it seems that many/most people are voluntarily observing restrictions there: no going out to restaurants/bars even though they're open.
    Some highlights from that tweet - things are pretty close to collapse by the sound of it

    13 April
    The Swedish strategy will “probably end in a historical massacre” says Head Doctor at a major hospital in Sweden.

    9 April
    Swedish Police now preparing for riots as more patients will be refused care.

    5 April
    REVEALED: Critical shortage of important medicines in Sweden now.

    4 April
    Swedish hospitals are at a breaking point now – will have to end the intensive care treatment for a large number of Intensive Care Patients.

    A leaked internal newsletter to the staff at Karolinska Hospital (Sweden’s best hospital) reveals that the intensive care units are now in a critical stage, where they no longer will be able to give care to a large number of patients.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,733

    Isn't that the point which Boris was making about the nurses looking after him, that they stayed monitoring and adjusting the equipment for him.
    Boris was not on a ventilator.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,553
    Chris said:

    It figures quite a lot in Edgar Allan Poe.
    It does seem to figure much more in writing for TV and cinema. Although more in the zombie end of the market, which - so far - hasn't figured as a Covid-19 outcome.

    So far.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nigelb said:

    He's already cracked the title.
    I always find that if I have a title I'm compelled to write a blogpost around it. It's always the hardest bit so I'm not going to let a good one go to waste.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Mr. Meeks, a kind suggestion, and I occasionally consider it, but I don't really have the time.

    It's very difficult to make money writing fiction. Even 'successful' writers often make less than £10,000 in a year from it. The likes of Tom Knox are very much the exception to the rule.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594

    Why don't you grow up. Shouting racist and moron every 5 mins is not clever.
    Is that the new motto of Twitter? That'll upset the users.
  • eadric said:

    Yes, it is the most asinine politicking. Given that this pattern is echoed across the world (BAME people dying in greater numbers) they might end up accusing the coronavirus of being a bigot. Or maybe God?


    There could be several conclusions. There may be nothing going on. It may be to do with the actual work BAME medics are doing. It may be regional (more BAME medics in particularly affected areas) There may be a physiological reason why infection rates are greater. There may be a physiological reason why death rates are higher.

    And it's perfectly possible there could be a material change to approach depending on outcome. Some of the above would suggest no action. But others may suggest more frequent testing for BAME medics, or giving them more duties involving hospital wards NOT dealing directly with coronavirus, or protecting a subset of BAME medics over 55 or whatever.

    So it's not futile by any means.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    TOPPING said:

    Isn't that slightly circular? How would the government have controlled the epidemic without a lockdown?
    Slightly. Countries that implemented measures early and effectively are coming out of lockdown earlier, presumably with less damage. Denmark is an example of that. That's why I said the length and severity of lockdown is partly an indication of failure, not that lockdown was implemented at all.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    isam said:

    Personall I think that different age groups should be treated differently in the lockdown. It seems so obvious by the age of victim that the old and frail need more protection from it than the young and healthy. Saying that on here has provoked angry responses - imagine if there were a racial factor!
    Selectivity always causes problems at the margins, here with policing issues presumably.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    I suspect it is because it's though if she was asked, she would answer the call for her party, her country. And there is a material risk that she may yet be asked. Biden currently looks like he is crossing Niagara Falls on a high wire, with a piano on his back.

    And an elephant atop the piano.
    I'm not sure it matters much who Biden picks for VP. If Trump is judged to have handled the pandemic well, and if the economy shows signs of life then he will win. That's why the Democrats and the media are endlessly going on about how badly Trump is handling things and how he should have done more sooner, thus saving lives etc.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219

    I always find that if I have a title I'm compelled to write a blogpost around it. It's always the hardest bit so I'm not going to let a good one go to waste.
    Someone once posted a hilarious Terminator meets Jane Austin story on-line.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918

    Why don't you grow up. Shouting racist and moron every 5 mins is not clever.
    I apologise for any offence caused to morons and racists.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    Isn't that the point which Boris was making about the nurses looking after him, that they stayed monitoring and adjusting the equipment for him.
    I don't know this for sure, but it is likely that countries with five times the number of ICU beds (Germany - see the article) will also have a much larger number of experienced staff. The UK can ramp up the equipment - less important - but not so much the staff, that are the vital resource here,
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    eadric said:

    Yes, it is the most asinine politicking. Given that this pattern is echoed across the world (BAME people dying in greater numbers) they might end up accusing the coronavirus of being a bigot. Or maybe God?


    I've posted earlier on here that CV19 is definitely Green and didn't the Green Goddess make an appearance a few days back?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    Nigelb said:

    Boris was not on a ventilator.
    I know. He had oxygen. Same principle applies.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,636
    Charles said:

    By definition a pensioner owning a house is not "poor".

    Moreover, let's assume that they are, and have just turned 65. Why are they not realising assets to improve their quality of life? 3% of the value of the house is not a huge amount.
    Did not expect to have you arguing for increase taxation of property!
    I entirely agree that pensioners having to give 3% less of their house to their children is not unreasonable.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    eadric said:

    This horror-show looks like a gift to writers, but I am not at all sure it is.

    Partly it's because the reality far outdoes any believable fiction, eg the PM of GB nearly dying, but recovering on Easter Sunday? Any editor would strike that out on grounds of credibility.

    More importantly, I don't think readers like to read about plague.

    I was having this debate with some creative-type friends on Whatsapp the other day: where is all the great plague fiction? Given what a compelling and momentous subject it, and how it can change worlds, it should inspire as much great writing as war (which inspires so much)

    But it doesn't.

    After much head scratching, seeking great fiction which is about the plague, these friends could only come up with

    Camus's The Plague
    The Book of Exodus (!?)
    and maybe Defoe (but that's really journalism)

    It's a tiny amount.

    My theory is that people don't want to anticipate the horrors of plague beforehand (just like governments) and after the plague is done, they want to forget everything about plagues as soon as poss.




    Doomsday Book by Connie Willis (time travel to English Black Death).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited April 2020
    FF43 said:

    I don't know this for sure, but it is likely that countries with five times the number of ICU beds (Germany - see the article) will also have a much larger number of experienced staff. The UK can ramp up the equipment - less important - but not so much the staff, that are the vital resource here,
    "Germany has plenty of hospital beds in its intensive care units. What it doesn't have is enough personnel."

    https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/covid-19-highlights-staff-shortages-at-german-hospitals-a-dc13b683-3884-4683-b9c0-68e0084a1f70

    Patients per nurse ratio, 13 in Germany, 8.6 UK, USA 5.3.

    https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/the-big-wave-of-corona-cases-will-hit-german-hospitals-in-10-to-14-days-a-45cd754c-e179-4dbb-8caf-8f6074e641cf
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918
    isam said:

    Personall I think that different age groups should be treated differently in the lockdown. It seems so obvious by the age of victim that the old and frail need more protection from it than the young and healthy. Saying that on here has provoked angry responses - imagine if there were a racial factor!
    Of course, that was precisely what the government was stupid enough to think it could do initially, with the nonsense about "cocooning" the elderly while the virus made its way through the rest of the population.

    It was so obvious that wouldn't work. You have only to look at what's happening now in care homes, even with a lockdown.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited April 2020
    eadric said:

    Even more worrying, this UoW model is apparently regarded as very authoritative in America, and is used by the US government.

    And even a blind layman with Alzheimer's can see it is rubbish.
    Well we went with Ferguson's model...that one he doesn't actually know what all the code does, because he wrote it 13 years ago and didn't document it properly....and got swine flu totally wrong.

    Luckily, we now have a lot of people working on fresh takes on that, but might only be useful for future waves.

    Having done reading around a lot of this, I was quite shocked how backward a lot of this work is compared to bleeding edge modelling in other areas. I guess a failure of multi-disciplinary interaction and the fact that people banging on about global pandemics were seen a little bit like those at Hyde Park Corner screaming about the end of the world is nigh. While the techy community are much more interested in thing like self-driving cars and in terms of health using ML / AI for diagnostic analysis of MRI / X-Rays for things like cancer.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    eadric said:

    This horror-show looks like a gift to writers, but I am not at all sure it is.

    Partly it's because the reality far outdoes any believable fiction, eg the PM of GB nearly dying, but recovering on Easter Sunday? Any editor would strike that out on grounds of credibility.

    More importantly, I don't think readers like to read about plague.

    I was having this debate with some creative-type friends on Whatsapp the other day: where is all the great plague fiction? Given what a compelling and momentous subject it, and how it can change worlds, it should inspire as much great writing as war (which inspires so much)

    But it doesn't.

    After much head scratching, seeking great fiction which is about the plague, these friends could only come up with

    Camus's The Plague
    The Book of Exodus (!?)
    and maybe Defoe (but that's really journalism)

    It's a tiny amount.

    My theory is that people don't want to anticipate the horrors of plague beforehand (just like governments) and after the plague is done, they want to forget everything about plagues as soon as poss.




    The introduction to thw Decameron has a superb description of how people in Florence coped with the Black Death of 1348.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Chris said:

    Of course, that was precisely what the government was stupid enough to think it could do initially, with the nonsense about "cocooning" the elderly while the virus made its way through the rest of the population.

    It was so obvious that wouldn't work. You have only to look at what's happening now in care homes, even with a lockdown.
    Most elderly people don't live in care homes. So, no, it's not obvious at all. In fact it's likely to be what the UK, and other countries, end up doing.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Obama will apparently endorse Biden sometime today - CNN and Fox News
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    Tim_B said:

    Obama will apparently endorse Biden sometime today - CNN and Fox News

    Were there concerns he was going to endorse Trump? :p
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eadric said:

    Yes. This is REALLY odd. And it's a pattern being repeated across the world.

    https://twitter.com/maddysavage/status/1250041344812253190?s=20

    You could argue this is a class thing - BAME patients are likely to be poorer - but it isn't. The richer BAME surgeons and doctors are also dying in disproportionate numbers.

    You could argue this is a genetic thing - if this was just happening to people of, say, African origin. But it isn't. It is hitting BAME patients from all ethnicities - Middle east, south Asian, Latin American.

    It is very strange and I have yet to see a satisfying explanation. Maybe there isn't one, and it is just a cruel combination of factors.
    Perhaps it's just a question of underlying conditions.

    e.g. East Africans (I think) disproportionately suffer from sickle cell anaemia, while people from the Indian sub-continent have higher incidence of diabetes. There are also differences in cardiology as a whole with African Americans (there are drugs that work for AAs but not for white/hispanic americans)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,263

    There has been some interesting preliminary research that is starting to theorise that there are in fact two different types of serious "responses". One that is like your typical ARDs and one that in layman's terms more akin to those that have suffered terrible altitude sickness.

    Sticking people with the later "type" on a ventilator results in worsen of their condition.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8aG63yigjA
    I am not convinced by that. 90% of the deaths are occurring outside ICU, so in non ventilated patients.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    Tim_B said:

    Obama will apparently endorse Biden sometime today - CNN and Fox News

    I presume he is going to be a lot more pro-active in this campaign than Clinton's. Both because of his closeness to Biden and the fact that last time they all clearly thought Hillary would walk it, so no need to be over-reaching.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @eadric Death In Venice is structured around a cholera epidemic.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329
    edited April 2020
    Chris said:

    Of course, that was precisely what the government was stupid enough to think it could do initially, with the nonsense about "cocooning" the elderly while the virus made its way through the rest of the population.

    It was so obvious that wouldn't work. You have only to look at what's happening now in care homes, even with a lockdown.
    "That was what the government thought it could do initially, with "cocooning" the elderly while the virus made its way through the rest of the population.

    What a more pleasant environment that would be for everyone
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited April 2020
    Foxy said:



    I am not convinced by that. 90% of the deaths are occurring outside ICU, so in non ventilated patients.

    But as I understand it, they aren't saying you are going to be fine with no treatment. Quite the opposite. More that the treatment needs to be very different and just sticking somebody on the standard treatment pathway, which ultimately leads to a ventilator at a certain stage may well worsen it in that second "type".

    The other thing I believe we have seen, CPAP machines early on seem to significantly reduce chances of having to go near a ventilator.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329
    Talk of airlines doubling fares as passengers would have to socially distance on board, so fewer seats used... what happens for full flights booked pre lockdown/virus?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    eadric said:

    More of a plot device than a subject, however?

    Incidentally I am reading Camus now. It's a fine fine book. I know it is an allegory of Nazi occupation but it is also a very acute description of a plague outbreak -the denial leading up, the strange horrors during, the bizarre human reactions.

    And all told in a delicately quiet style, contrasting with the enormities it analyses
    It's a great book, even though I had to read it in sixth form French.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    That 0.3% per annum is a hell of a lot more swallowable than the 1% you previously suggested. When you're multiplying by such high property values, each decimal point makes a big difference.

    I'd also hope that any such tax applied only to the net equity, not to the gross total of equity plus mortgage, as I've seen some lefties suggest.
    Should be the value of the house, otherwise you incentivise excessive use of debt. Tax contributions should be independent of financing structure generally.

    (The number is lower vs 1% because the debt figure here is £218bn vs the £500bn I'd plucked out of the air before. Additionally, I'd assumed value of housing was £5trn but Savills had a much higher number)

    More generally we should shift taxation from things like employment and transaction taxes to wealth based taxes. Property is the easiest form of wealth to tax - I'd be in favour of a 1% annual tax anyway *provided* that it is used to reduce more damaging taxes/reduce the deficit
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    isam said:

    Talk of airlines doubling fares as passengers would have to socially distance on board, so fewer seats used... what happens for full flights booked pre lockdown/virus?

    They put on 2 planes? There's no shortage. But I imagine that there will be a fair number of no shows one way and another so they might not need to.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    eadric said:

    More of a plot device than a subject, however?

    Incidentally I am reading Camus now. It's a fine fine book. I know it is an allegory of Nazi occupation but it is also a very acute description of a plague outbreak -the denial leading up, the strange horrors during, the bizarre human reactions.

    And all told in a delicately quiet style, contrasting with the enormities it analyses
    Mann did also write The Magic Mountain - which may or may not qualify as pulmonary TB is (usually) a slow disease, though it was called the White Plague after all.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited April 2020
    I think we can stick Ticketmaster on the bastard list. Apparently they have changed their TOS, no refunds unless a show is cancelled. If it is simply indefinitely postponed pending some as yet unknown rescheduled date, you can't get your money back.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,852
    Charles said:

    Should be the value of the house, otherwise you incentivise excessive use of debt. Tax contributions should be independent of financing structure generally.
    Yes, taxing equity would just encourage people to take out the biggest mortgage possible and create all sorts of perverse incentives.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,553

    Most elderly people don't live in care homes. So, no, it's not obvious at all. In fact it's likely to be what the UK, and other countries, end up doing.
    Cacooning is a fair description of what many (all?) of the elderly are doing around us. Not entirely cut off from the outside world - but being helped out by those of us who are slightly more out and about than they are (but still highly risk averse). We are looking after their needs, supplying them with weekend newspapers, DVDs and other diversions, the occassional meal or treat from Fortnums dropped off - but they are all under effective house arrest.

    Who knows how long they can keep this up before they go the full Assange and start smearing their shit on the walls? As many of them have been through the war or at least post-war rationing, I suspect most of them will cope better than folk half their age. They understand the alternative is risking a rather horrible, lonely death. Staying home with a Sudoku under those conditions is barely a hardship.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    Charles said:

    Should be the value of the house, otherwise you incentivise excessive use of debt. Tax contributions should be independent of financing structure generally.

    (The number is lower vs 1% because the debt figure here is £218bn vs the £500bn I'd plucked out of the air before. Additionally, I'd assumed value of housing was £5trn but Savills had a much higher number)

    More generally we should shift taxation from things like employment and transaction taxes to wealth based taxes. Property is the easiest form of wealth to tax - I'd be in favour of a 1% annual tax anyway *provided* that it is used to reduce more damaging taxes/reduce the deficit

    It's a good plan, Charles. I'm happy to throw my weight behind it.
  • I think we can stick Ticketmaster on the bastard list. Apparently they have changed their TOS, no refunds unless a show is cancelled. If it is simply indefinitely postponed pending some as yet unknown rescheduled date, you can't get your money back.

    This is why I buy tickets on my credit card.

    I've given up on seeing Scooter on the 23rd of May.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I think we can stick Ticketmaster on the bastard list. Apparently they have changed their TOS, no refunds unless a show is cancelled. If it is simply indefinitely postponed pending some as yet unknown rescheduled date, you can't get your money back.

    They obviously have a reason to discourage people from using their service, but it's not immediately apparent what that reason might be.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918

    Most elderly people don't live in care homes. So, no, it's not obvious at all. In fact it's likely to be what the UK, and other countries, end up doing.
    Well, if you can't cocoon the huge number of elderly people who rely on care from younger people - either in a residential setting or in their own homes - how can such a policy work, unless you are assuming those people are just going to be sacrificed?

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    Tim_B said:

    I'm not sure it matters much who Biden picks for VP. If Trump is judged to have handled the pandemic well, and if the economy shows signs of life then he will win. That's why the Democrats and the media are endlessly going on about how badly Trump is handling things and how he should have done more sooner, thus saving lives etc.
    In what universe could Trump be "judged to have handled the pandemic well".
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvE9hCZ-jaU
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    I presume he is going to be a lot more pro-active in this campaign than Clinton's. Both because of his closeness to Biden and the fact that last time they all clearly thought Hillary would walk it, so no need to be over-reaching.

    Yes. And his wife. Trump is toast.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,979
    TGOHF666 said:
    The whole thing is sickening and has inevitably been blown up by The National (or "McPravda" as it is unaffectionately known.)

    The idea that the UK Govt or "the English" are deliberately discriminating against the poor beleaguered Scots is, of course, nonsense but feeds straight into the grievance narrative which seems to be so important to some strains of Scottish nationalism. It is completely contemptible but sadly it is a political fact of life that we have to deal with.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,553
    edited April 2020
    Biden musing "who's that nice clean-cut chap in the blue striped tie?"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,553

    This is why I buy tickets on my credit card.

    I've given up on seeing Scooter on the 23rd of May.
    I can't imagine ANY of the Muppets will be out by then.....
  • They obviously have a reason to discourage people from using their service, but it's not immediately apparent what that reason might be.
    Turns out it is the policy in America, the UK policy is largely unchanged.

    https://www.nme.com/news/music/ticketmaster-criticised-for-coronavirus-refund-policy-2646164
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    Gallows humour is a phenomenon the world over in any and every circumstance.

    Soldier A (screaming, after a blast): I've lost my leg, I've lost my leg.

    Soldier B: No you haven't, it's over here.
    I always preferred:

    Earl of Uxbridge: I lost my leg at Waterloo, don't you know

    Young boy: Which platform?

    (I know that he was actually the Marquess of Anglesey by the time Waterloo station was built... but the reference is to the reported conversation between Wellington and Uxbridge at the time:

    Uxbridge: "By God, sir, I've lost my leg!"
    Wellington: "By God, sir, so you have!")
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    BigRich said:

    As Sweden seems to be demonstrating to the would, (only time will fully tell) if sensible advise was given early enough, then a forceful lock-down would not have been necessary. IMO
    Even with a lockdown we seem to have more irresponsible idiots than Sweden has without one. You cannot simply assume that Brits would have behaved the way Swedes have if there had not been a lockdown.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822


    Cacooning is a fair description of what many (all?) of the elderly are doing around us. Not entirely cut off from the outside world - but being helped out by those of us who are slightly more out and about than they are (but still highly risk averse). We are looking after their needs, supplying them with weekend newspapers, DVDs and other diversions, the occassional meal or treat from Fortnums dropped off - but they are all under effective house arrest.

    Who knows how long they can keep this up before they go the full Assange and start smearing their shit on the walls? As many of them have been through the war or at least post-war rationing, I suspect most of them will cope better than folk half their age. They understand the alternative is risking a rather horrible, lonely death. Staying home with a Sudoku under those conditions is barely a hardship.

    Yes, and of course it's not a binary thing. Those with a somewhat elevated risk profile (say a healthy 68 year old) might avoid restaurants and bars (and nightclubs!) but do a little shopping and other lower-risk activities, whereas a 75-year old with some underlying health issues might observe a stricter form of isolation.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    Charles said:

    By definition a pensioner owning a house is not "poor".

    Moreover, let's assume that they are, and have just turned 65. Why are they not realising assets to improve their quality of life? 3% of the value of the house is not a huge amount.
    For many reasons, mainly that 'realising assets' is just not feasible for many. Great for the middle classes but not for a working class pensioner who has a home and a state pension and nothing else (like my parents). What are they supposed to do, sell and rent? There aren't many cheaper areas than where they already are for a start and they also need to stay close to where their support network is. What's wrong with paying on death? They probably don't have much more than ten/fifteen years left in any case.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited April 2020
    OllyT said:

    Even with a lockdown we seem to have more irresponsible idiots than Sweden has without one. You cannot simply assume that Brits would have behaved the way Swedes have if there had not been a lockdown.
    Why are left-wingers today always so authoritarian, having no trust in the public to do the right thing? It's a big mystery. There used to be a lot of left-wing libertarians around but they've mostly disappeared.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,532
    Charles said:

    Should be the value of the house, otherwise you incentivise excessive use of debt. Tax contributions should be independent of financing structure generally.

    (The number is lower vs 1% because the debt figure here is £218bn vs the £500bn I'd plucked out of the air before. Additionally, I'd assumed value of housing was £5trn but Savills had a much higher number)

    More generally we should shift taxation from things like employment and transaction taxes to wealth based taxes. Property is the easiest form of wealth to tax - I'd be in favour of a 1% annual tax anyway *provided* that it is used to reduce more damaging taxes/reduce the deficit
    Like many people who are well off retired I am asset rich but do not have a high income as I don't need one. I have never benefited from a DB pension. Most of my asset value is in the house I live in which I will sell when I no longer need it and when I need cash and downsize and move to a smaller house.

    I can't afford 1% of the property value a year or anything like it! That will apply to a lot of people.

    I personally don't understand why CGT does not apply to the main residence. It has the benefit of only being charged when assets are materialised and will reduce house prices which would be a good thing. Unfortunately there would have to be some tapering as the change in house prices overnight might be dramatic.
  • NEW THREAD

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Tim_B said:

    One of the overlooked aspects of the pandemic, for those of us who fly, is that it has probably hastened the end of the 747 as a passenger airplane, though it will continue to carry much of the world's air freight, and is the final nail in the coffin of the A380, which is going out of production anyway. A few airlines - Emirates for example - who fly exclusively long haul, will keep them, but otherwise it's pretty much sayonara.

    No-one actually ordered the 747-8 for a passenger rôle, did they?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I don't think he did it only for PR, but I suspect he didn't mind if he benefitted from that, and I personally don't have a problem with that.

    What I find offensive is that time is wasted on these stunts. One is reminded of the crazy counter productive efforts made by Mao Tse Tung to divert production to steel production. It really is time that government ministers stopped asking their cronies, and started asking people that actually understand how these things are made and how they can use our excellent contract manufacturing industry to partner with companies outside UK under licence.
    So you think that Maclaren FI, Penlon (a medical gas engineering company) and others shouldn't have got involved?

    The whole point was trying multiple pathways of people with relevant skills to seek ways to expand capacity beyond what Smiths could just do on their own.

    Not all were going to work, but worth trying.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    eadric said:

    But the actual book after that is a huge diversion from the Plague itself - deliberately so, of course.

    I mean great books that actually use plague as a subject. There are very few classic titles (compare to the thousands that deal with war)
    I don't know if I'd consider it a classic, but "Station Eleven" buy Emily St John Mandel is the best that I can think of for an apocalyptic plague, its aftermath, and the relatively trifling concerns of what went before.

    Plus also features the character of an old white guy who works in the Arts and is concerned with his virility - so right up your street, I think.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Chris said:



    Well, if you can't cocoon the huge number of elderly people who rely on care from younger people - either in a residential setting or in their own homes - how can such a policy work, unless you are assuming those people are just going to be sacrificed?

    When you say 'sacrificed', you must mean that there is some alternative choice which you think this evil government would deliberately not be making. I am sure that the entire world would love to know what it is, because not a single government on this earth has a better idea than selective lockdown combined with improved mitigation (changes in methods of providing care, better PPE and testing) so far.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    Doesn't Atwood's Maddaddam trilogy involve a plague or similar to get them to where they are in the novels?
    Crichton's Andromeda Strain?
    Kim Stanley Robinson's Years of Rice & Salt

    There was a book I remember reading years ago about someone digging up Spanish flu victims on Svalberg to make a biological weapon
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rkrkrk said:

    Did not expect to have you arguing for increase taxation of property!
    I entirely agree that pensioners having to give 3% less of their house to their children is not unreasonable.
    I've argued for it for years! It's a much less economically damaging tax than others.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I think we can stick Ticketmaster on the bastard list. Apparently they have changed their TOS, no refunds unless a show is cancelled. If it is simply indefinitely postponed pending some as yet unknown rescheduled date, you can't get your money back.

    Can you change the ToS post a sale?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ukpaul said:

    For many reasons, mainly that 'realising assets' is just not feasible for many. Great for the middle classes but not for a working class pensioner who has a home and a state pension and nothing else (like my parents). What are they supposed to do, sell and rent? There aren't many cheaper areas than where they already are for a start and they also need to stay close to where their support network is. What's wrong with paying on death? They probably don't have much more than ten/fifteen years left in any case.
    Sell and move somewhere smaller?

    In the case of the average home you are talking about £7k over 10 years.

  • sladeslade Posts: 2,162
    Carnyx said:

    That is indeed one of the points that has been made about the influenza outbreak of 1918-1919 - very little literature about it too, and yet compare the Great War - lots of great books.

    I'm mildly surprised to find that J. G. Ballard didn't write a plague novel - his oeuvre seems so relevant today.

    And was Camus's novel not more of an allegory of enemy occupation anyway?
    Ballard wrote a short story called Intensive Care Unit. Will Self read a small piece this morning on R4 about social distancing.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    edited April 2020
    Charles said:

    Sell and move somewhere smaller?

    In the case of the average home you are talking about £7k over 10 years.

    They already did that as they had no savings and, as paltry as the gains were, they've pretty much all gone now on living costs and the odd holiday. They live in a Park Home.

    Why force them to pay what would be a crucial amount of their state pension when the same money could be taken when they have both passed? I'm perfectly fine with having it taken out of the property price when they're gone (or if in a care home). The poorest should not have to pay upfront and that should be made very clear.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,381
    IshmaelZ said:

    Doomsday Book by Connie Willis (time travel to English Black Death).
    The Stand by Stephen King. Which funnily enough is getting another tv adaptation this year.
This discussion has been closed.