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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With six and a half months to go till WH2020 Trump is still in negative approval territory
Unlike in the UK where for less importance is attached to leader ratings the approval numbers for an incumbent US president are generally seen as a good indicator of how the next election is going to shape out.
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Biden at 4%?
Trump really is an arse but his supporters love him.
This Scooter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YxTa1AUqps
I fear 1000 new deaths is a definite possibility on either Wednesday or Thursday.
Let's hope not.
He also thinks at least one shadow minister is up shit creek without a canoe.
Oh and Richard Burgon's suggestion is so dumb, we need a new word for his idiocy.
There will be other deaths caused by Covid 19 that were neither confirmed or suspected as such. So we dont have exact numbers of deaths and the care homes did not say we did.
Poor journalism yet again.
Under reporting like the UK Government!!!
https://www.ft.com/content/99220450-b0f2-4779-a768-90d199d1348c?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a
There does seem to have been a very serious cockup, to put the best face on things. It's one thing to say sorry, we're chokka, but quite another to think one is forbidden even to talk to Scottish and Welsh customers. It's clear that four companies are now refusing to supply Scottish and Welsh customers and one of them has said it is directly due to Public Health England who have imposed restrictions. And the care homes industry body is the one which raised it, as it is causing care homes serious problems. .
The way it is presented is very frustrating though. The wider ONS numbers have always been available, just with a delay. Sky are reporting them as though its govt numbers vs ONS numbers - when clearly the ONS is part of the govt. Hospital numbers are particularly relevant as a key govt objective is to stop the NHS breaking - it doesnt make other deaths less sad, but in terms of managing the crisis NHS capacity is key.
And if people go out of their way to criticise the CMO and CSO for misleading the public by using NHS figures (when that is all they have ever said they were), then don't mislead the public by misquoting the owners of care homes to imply more accuracy than was given.
So Trump is still certainly not beaten yet
https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx
https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/scotland/claim-england-has-priority-on-ppe-is-rubbish-scotlands-clinical-chief-says/
It's been a deliberate attempt to play to the old grievance hymn sheet. Contemptible.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52278746
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1250075668282576898?s=20
The government obviously realized that the UK doing worse than both France and Germany was too damaging .
What the ONS figures tell us is that roughly twice as many "excess" people died in the most recent week for which we have data as were recorded for Covid-19 for the daily deaths in hospital from Covid-19 in that week at the time. It is reasonable to attribute that excess to Covid-19 in the absence of any other obvious explanation.
For the moment, doubling the cumulative deaths in hospital from Covid-19 announced by the DHSC seems a reasonable rule of thumb.
He's the betting favourite in fact.
I just prefer people being careful and clear when quoting numbers. Given most tests are to people with symptoms and most turn out negative, it is pretty likely that most of the suspected covid 19 deaths were not covid 19 related. With not much testing in care homes its possible the real numbers from that 521 sample are half what the tweet says.
And for balance I pointed out that wasnt the whole picture, that on the opposite side, there were other deaths that are covid 19 related that were neither confirmed nor suspected.
I dont know the point of the just flu comment.
New Order's Manchester International Festival show is being streamed for free this weekend
The event is part of a new MIF LIVE programme of free online shows and talks
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/music-nightlife-news/manchester-international-festival-streaming-free-18088568
https://twitter.com/leftist_agenda/status/1250017416123428865/photo/1
That however may be less the case in the next few weeks, because we are at the end of the season of elevated seasonal mortality, and so someone who would have survived until (say) at least the end of April were it not for Covid-19, and who is very vulnerable to flu or other such diseases, might well have then gone on to survive until the next danger period next winter.
A simple con trick played on the citizens of Scotland - unfortunately enough of them lap up this nonsense - for now.
As reported, Dr Leitch didn't say the reporting is mince. What he did say is that NHS England and English care homes did not have priority on personal protective equipment.
But that is not what the companies were evidently given to understand, presumably by PHE, especially given the pretty specific statement on Gomperts' corporate website.
What I'm wondering if this is to do with the occasion a couple of weeks back which raised eyebrows when PHE demanded the sole right to deal with certain health service suppliers for all of the UK, elbowing its Scots and Welsh opposite numbers aside despite their existing involvement, on the grounds of improved efficiency. So it's not great if inj fact they mioghjt have messed up.
We'll have to see wat comes out, but it was the care homes (and journalists) that raised it - not the Scottish government or Dr Leitch who seem to have tried to lower the temperature, quite rightly.
Loyal Formby -60 seats
Yup. You can see how results improved after the traitors were removed and loyalists put in.
Ate an apple and lost a filling. Went to dentist - closed because of the lockdown. Rang number and can only get antibiotics if the pain gets bad. Came back to the car - flat tyre. Emergency people take me to garage in Las Norias - 2 day wait and nearly €200 for a new one. Back home and it just started raining - I live in the sunniest and driest region in Europe. One hour later vomited up breakfast. WTF! Almost as unbelievable as the idea a deadly virus could paralyse the world in a few months.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2017-09-05/8937
Even if it weren't it would be irrelevant. COVID 19 is more deadly than the common cold.
I though he'd be too busy putting the strong arm on the SPFL.
Are you not furious that Anti Semitism wasn't prioritized and AS on the right were let off because they were on the correct side of the party?
*Not those saboteurs. The other ones.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1250063051182747651
Getting sick of my middle class cohort luxuriating over the prospects of an extended lockdown.
@isam fpt is probably right that a demographic relaxation will have to be introduced at some point. Let the young and fit out by mid-May...
Getting Trump out of the Oval Office if he loses is going to push the US to the very brink.
I think the current historical appraisal is that Bligh was not the appalling bastard that he was painted as being in the earlier accounts. What he was is hot-tempered and incredibly inconsistent. So he'd turn a blind eye to his crew sleeping around with natives, but then fly into a rage when they picked up STDs. It isn't that he was very strict, just that it was never clear where the line was and how near crew members were to crossing it.
Similarly with Trump. Some attack him for extremism, but his bigger trait is capriciousness. Opponents, colleagues, other world leaders - nobody can reliably predict him one day, and sometimes one moment, to the next. Sometimes he's very accommodating, sometimes he's absolutely intransigent. Sometimes he appears genuinely warm, sometimes publicly hostile. And so on. Now whether that's a feature or a bug is a matter for debate - I think the latter, but can see how it might work in some situations.
Let's at least get an accurate metaphor.