politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Eurovision thread

kle4 said:

Smitten-Downes has a good voice, but IDK, something about the song just isn't working for me. It's a style of song I quite like, normally, but it just feels very formulaic for some reason.

I was surprised to learn we came fifth not that many years ago, contrary to public perception fof us as always doing terribly.

MikeK said:

I HATE the Eurovision song contest. It shows how groups of near kin countries gang up and vote for their friends, regardless of the musical value of the their songs. It is Europe at it's worst and shows like nothing else, how the cloak of EU cover is just a sham.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carola said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carola said:

Is there one in it called 'Cupcake' or something? That's the one my Eurovision fanatic neighbour was banging on about.

Belarus' entry is called Cheesecake.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Qe7YmYgowM

Oh lord. That must be it. Is it in the running?

Not really, 400/1

MikeK said:

I HATE the Eurovision song contest. It shows how groups of near kin countries gang up and vote for their friends, regardless of the musical value of the their songs. It is Europe at it's worst and shows like nothing else, how the cloak of EU cover is just a sham.

In short, The Un-Credible Shrinking Man did for Ed Miliband’s credibility what It’s a Royal Knockout did for Prince Edward’s. But, undaunted, Labour went on to publish an election poster depicting Cameron and Clegg as “two peas in a pod”, in front of an array of foodstuffs – mostly vegetables – on which the Coalition had “raised VAT”. One slight problem: there’s no VAT on vegetables, including peas.

Taken together, these two PR screw-ups help explain why, a year from the general election, Labour’s lead in the polls is so tiny and fragile. Like the unfortunate Smiffy in the Beano’s Bash Street Kids, Ed Miliband “always gets things wrong” – though, as beano.com reassures us, he’s “happy in his own little world”.

stodge said:

kle4 said:

MrJones said:

HYUFD said:

Mr Jones Indeed, in 2015 the LDs will get roughly the vote David Steel got before the SDP in 1979

Yeah, amazing what they threw away really.

They only threw away a part of it. Some of it was inevitable as they expanded outwards without developing a large enough core vote, which was bound to be a bubble which burst eventually.

The post-1983 numbers reflect the Labour schism in 1981-82 so the party only polled 17% in 1992 and has never re-visited the 1983 high numbers. The vagaries of the electoral system allowed the party to profit in seats from relatively poor vote shares.

Charles Kennedy is eulogised by many outside the party but he had the good fortune to lead the Party throughout a record of prolonged Conservative weakness after 1999. His actual record as leader is much less inspiring for all the Iraq goodwill.

The one opportunity the Party had to make a breakthrough was in 2003 when the Conservatives walked to the edge of the abyss under IDS - unfortunately for the LDs (and fortunately for the Tories), the Party didn't like what they saw and ousted their own leader.

My view is that had IDS led the Conservatives into the 2005 election they would have won fewer seats than Major or Hague and that might have triggered a serious internal debate.

Stuart_Dickson said:

European election: Farage sure UKIP will win Scotland seat

UKIP leader Nigel Farage has told a rally in Edinburgh that his party "will win a seat" for the first time in Scotland in the upcoming European Parliament elections.

... The MEP, who was in Edinburgh to back the party's candidate David Coburn at a rally, predicted that UKIP was on course to win one seat in the European Parliament in Scotland, adding that "if things go really well, possibly even two".

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27339519

Last time I looked Ladbrokes were offering 1/3 that UKIP will not win an MEP in Scotland.

TOPPING said:

Is it illegal to accept money for voting? ie if someone (J K Rowling perhaps, or maybe Stuart Wheeler) were to offer someone £1,000 to vote for one candidate or another, is that illegal?

anotherDave said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

European election: Farage sure UKIP will win Scotland seat

UKIP leader Nigel Farage has told a rally in Edinburgh that his party "will win a seat" for the first time in Scotland in the upcoming European Parliament elections.

... The MEP, who was in Edinburgh to back the party's candidate David Coburn at a rally, predicted that UKIP was on course to win one seat in the European Parliament in Scotland, adding that "if things go really well, possibly even two".

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27339519

Last time I looked Ladbrokes were offering 1/3 that UKIP will not win an MEP in Scotland.

I think in the past you've said you live in Sweden. Will you be voting in the EU Parliament election there?

notme said:

Charles said:

volcanopete said:

Latest Labour party communication.Using Vine this time for visual effects.

vine.co/v/M6veU5592xX

This is pathetic. Do they have anything they want to say about themselves or is it all going to be childish insults?

From the advert:
"REMEMBER: Nick Clegg has backed David Cameron on the bedroom tax, the NHS bill and tax cuts for millionaires"

i) Bedroom tax is based on the local housing allowances rules from 2006. They're the same rules!!! In 2006 they only applied to housing benefit for private tenants. Government has just expanded it to social tenants as well.
ii) The NHS Bill. Much of the NHS Bill was formed from the pilot carried out in Cumbria and cornwell from 2008.
iii) Top rate of income tax for thirteen years under Labour was 40p in pound, for three weeks up until general election in 2010 it was increased to 50p. The coalition after two years reduced it to 45p. 5p more than it was under Labour.

Charles said:

volcanopete said:

Latest Labour party communication.Using Vine this time for visual effects.

vine.co/v/M6veU5592xX

This is pathetic. Do they have anything they want to say about themselves or is it all going to be childish insults?

AveryLP said:

Professor Alan Sked, co-founder of UKIP, sharpens his apostrophe and mercilessly plants it in Farage's back:

twitter.com/junayed_/status/464777716332777472

Oh for the virginal purity of the ivory tower!

Smarmeron said:

@TOPPING

Not according to the police, We were outside the polling stations chatting with the other party activists and handing a packet round, someone offered a wine gum to one of the voters along with the leaflet.....and we all got a severe finger wagging

AveryLP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AveryLP said:

Professor Alan Sked, co-founder of UKIP, sharpens his apostrophe and mercilessly plants it in Farage's back:

twitter.com/junayed_/status/464777716332777472

Oh for the virginal purity of the ivory tower!

Sked has been pushing this line at every opportunity ever since he lost out to Farage for leadership. He is an embittered old man who is doing a fantastic impression of Ted Heath. His comments have no more resonance now than they did when he made them on the dozen or more previous occasions.

I am sure you are right, Richard.

But you have to concede the apostrophe story is waspishly funny.

And the points he makes about the compromises the party has had to make in order to become popular are true.

Farage is doing well in his recent attempts to deflect accusations of racism and I, for one, don't believe he has a racist cell in his body. But it is the friends he attracts (and to be honest covertly courts) which pollute the mission.

MikeK said:

david_herdson said:

MikeK said:

I HATE the Eurovision song contest. It shows how groups of near kin countries gang up and vote for their friends, regardless of the musical value of the their songs. It is Europe at it's worst and shows like nothing else, how the cloak of EU cover is just a sham.

It's not the 'countries' who gang together; it's that the ex-pats in these countries vote for their home team (which they couldn't were they still in their home country). It's the same reason Germany always gives Turkey a bucketload.

Whatever the reason the whole thing is a bucketload of shite.

notme said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AveryLP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AveryLP said:

Professor Alan Sked, co-founder of UKIP, sharpens his apostrophe and mercilessly plants it in Farage's back:

twitter.com/junayed_/status/464777716332777472

Oh for the virginal purity of the ivory tower!

Sked has been pushing this line at every opportunity ever since he lost out to Farage for leadership. He is an embittered old man who is doing a fantastic impression of Ted Heath. His comments have no more resonance now than they did when he made them on the dozen or more previous occasions.

I am sure you are right, Richard.

But you have to concede the apostrophe story is waspishly funny.

And the points he makes about the compromises the party has had to make in order to become popular are true.

Farage is doing well in his recent attempts to deflect accusations of racism and I, for one, don't believe he has a racist cell in his body. But it is the friends he attracts (and to be honest covertly courts) which pollute the mission.

Those friends are no different to the ones attracted by the Tory party. Actually that is not quite true. The crucial difference is that UKIP get rid of the racists and bigots when they make their stupid comments. The Tories do not but instead allow them to continue serving as Tory councillors.

You are baiting me, but go on. Give us some examples.

notme said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AveryLP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AveryLP said:

Professor Alan Sked, co-founder of UKIP, sharpens his apostrophe and mercilessly plants it in Farage's back:

twitter.com/junayed_/status/464777716332777472

Oh for the virginal purity of the ivory tower!

Sked has been pushing this line at every opportunity ever since he lost out to Farage for leadership. He is an embittered old man who is doing a fantastic impression of Ted Heath. His comments have no more resonance now than they did when he made them on the dozen or more previous occasions.

I am sure you are right, Richard.

But you have to concede the apostrophe story is waspishly funny.

And the points he makes about the compromises the party has had to make in order to become popular are true.

Farage is doing well in his recent attempts to deflect accusations of racism and I, for one, don't believe he has a racist cell in his body. But it is the friends he attracts (and to be honest covertly courts) which pollute the mission.

Those friends are no different to the ones attracted by the Tory party. Actually that is not quite true. The crucial difference is that UKIP get rid of the racists and bigots when they make their stupid comments. The Tories do not but instead allow them to continue serving as Tory councillors.

You are baiting me, but go on. Give us some examples.

HYUFD said:

Stodge David Herdson The last yougov poll under IDS had the Tories on 34%, 1% higher than the 33% Howard got in 2005, an IDS Tories would have done about as well as Howard did after Iraq. The only party capable of overtaking the Tories will be from its right, which is why UKIP is so dangerous to it, in a worst case scenario for Cameron it could to the Tories what the Reform Party did to the Progressive Conservatives in Canada, and eventually take it over in a merger of the two. Although if we had PR more parties would be certain to retain a separate identity indefinitely

Stuart_Dickson said:

peter_from_putney said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

peter_from_putney said:

O/T Apols

AndyJS FPT : Until recently I thought 16% might still be possible for the LDs at the general election, but the problem is they're still at 9% with the UKPR polling average with less than 12 months to go. Probably not enough time to get up to 16%, so around 14% might be the best they can manage now.

I'm inclined to agree - feeding into Electoral Calculus produces the following :
Con .......35
Lab .......34
Lib ........14
UKIP ......11
Other ..... 6

Produces seat-wise:

Con ......284
Lab ......311
Lib ........ 28
Nats ........9
NI ..........18
UKIP ....... 0
Greens ... 0

Baxter is currently predicting 11 SNP MPs:

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html

So adding in at least a couple of Plaid MPs makes your 9 (n/c) figure look a little odd.

Baxter's 5 predicted SNP gains are:

Argyll & Bute from LD (Reid)
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross from LD (Thurso)
Gordon from LD (vacant)
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey from LD (Danny Alexander)
Ochil and South Perthshire from Lab (Banks)

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html

If you and Baxter are right in forecasting 11 SNP MPs at the next GE, then Stan James' odds of 4/5 on them achieving just 7 or more MPs has to be THE value bet currently available from any major bookie.

I'm not making any predictions whatsoever. It is looking 50/50 whether there will ever be another UK GE in Scotland, so a bit daft making predictions about a possible non-event.

AndyJS said:

IIRC John Major allegedly used the phrase "n*gger in the woodpile" actually while he was prime minister, but hardly anything was made of it. Maybe that was because most people recognised he was a decent sort of guy who didn't mean anything by it. Apologies if I'm misremembering, but I don't think I am.