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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Eurovision thread
In the first semi-final we saw the Russian entry get booed, some say for a mixture of Russia’s contretemps in Ukraine and Russia’s approach to the LGBT community. Given the demographics of Eurovision watchers and voters, that may not help Russia, so I’m laying Russia.
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I was surprised to learn we came fifth not that many years ago, contrary to public perception fof us as always doing terribly.
(The UKIP bod, Alan Stevens, was quite impressive, but he's so far down the candidate list, I can't see him ever becoming an MEP.)
https://democracy.buckscc.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=3420
:go-armenia:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Qe7YmYgowM
AndyJS FPT : Until recently I thought 16% might still be possible for the LDs at the general election, but the problem is they're still at 9% with the UKPR polling average with less than 12 months to go. Probably not enough time to get up to 16%, so around 14% might be the best they can manage now.
I'm inclined to agree - feeding into Electoral Calculus produces the following :
Con .......35
Lab .......34
Lib ........14
UKIP ......11
Other ..... 6
Produces seat-wise:
Con ......284
Lab ......311
Lib ........ 28
Nats ........9
NI ..........18
UKIP ....... 0
Greens ... 0
O/T:
Everyone seems to have forgotten about Erasure, so here they are with their 1990 hit Blue Savannah:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEb1XePerwg&
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html
So adding in at least a couple of Plaid MPs makes your 9 (n/c) figure look a little odd.
Baxter's 5 predicted SNP gains are:
Argyll & Bute from LD (Reid)
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross from LD (Thurso)
Gordon from LD (vacant)
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey from LD (Danny Alexander)
Ochil and South Perthshire from Lab (Banks)
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
UKIP leader Nigel Farage has told a rally in Edinburgh that his party "will win a seat" for the first time in Scotland in the upcoming European Parliament elections.
... The MEP, who was in Edinburgh to back the party's candidate David Coburn at a rally, predicted that UKIP was on course to win one seat in the European Parliament in Scotland, adding that "if things go really well, possibly even two".
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27339519
Last time I looked Ladbrokes were offering 1/3 that UKIP will not win an MEP in Scotland.
After watching Agents of SHIELD I'm tempted to write a blog about why polygraphs are science fiction rather than science fact...
vine.co/v/M6veU5592xX
The Lib Dems' real chance then was to replace Labour but it let its heart rule its head (as well as the electorally easier option).
Lab: 454,562 (38.87%)
Con: 312,295 (26.70%)
LD: 283,444 (24.24%)
BNP: 36,838 (3.15%)
Ind: 27,824 (2.38%)
Green: 24,716 (2.11%)
Community Action: 11,129 (0.95%)
UKIP: 8,844 (0.76%)
Wigan Ind Con: 4,351 (0.37%)
Respect: 3,466 (0.30%)
Eng Dem: 1,115 (0.10%)
TUSC: 478 (0.04%)
England First: 425 (0.04%)
Libertarian: 55 (0.00%)
Labour will be hoping to hit 50% with the LD vote collapsing. UKIP hardly featured last time but could actually beat the LDs this time.
Spain should be interesting.
You can't even offer them a wine gum!
If you and Baxter are right in forecasting 11 SNP MPs at the next GE, then Stan James' odds of 4/5 on them achieving just 7 or more MPs has to be THE value bet currently available from any major bookie.
Accepting a bribe is also a crime?.... Well, it is for people below CEO grade
interesting. Something of the free market capitalist in me dislikes that but I suppose as has been rehearsed today, esp. by @Socrates, we don't want our nation to turn into an oligarchy.
Anyway, as I am staring at a (postal) ballot paper here with one R Helmer Esq on it I wondered who might benefit most from my selection.
Not even a wine gum, eh?
"REMEMBER: Nick Clegg has backed David Cameron on the bedroom tax, the NHS bill and tax cuts for millionaires"
i) Bedroom tax is based on the local housing allowances rules from 2006. They're the same rules!!! In 2006 they only applied to housing benefit for private tenants. Government has just expanded it to social tenants as well.
ii) The NHS Bill. Much of the NHS Bill was formed from the pilot carried out in Cumbria and cornwell from 2008.
iii) Top rate of income tax for thirteen years under Labour was 40p in pound, for three weeks up until general election in 2010 it was increased to 50p. The coalition after two years reduced it to 45p. 5p more than it was under Labour.
Not according to the police, We were outside the polling stations chatting with the other party activists and handing a packet round, someone offered a wine gum to one of the voters along with the leaflet.....and we all got a severe finger wagging
They both took one though? ;-)
(ESO = Eurovision Sonk Ontest (which is what I have called it for many years))
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27344465
Obviously its going to be childish insults.
They cant talk about economic competence can they?
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4
Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 2/1
UKIP to win 0 seats 1/3
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1
Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10
SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3
Labour to win more votes than SNP 9/4
'Ukip bullish about chances of breakthrough in Scotland'
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/09/nigel-farage-confident-ukip-will-win-seat-in-scotland
Any takers out there on Shadsy's 2/1 UKIP to win a seat in Scotland?
twitter.com/junayed_/status/464777716332777472
Oh for the virginal purity of the ivory tower!
However, shadsy's 50/1 and 40/1 SNP prices in East Dunbartonshire and in Edinburgh North & Leith: those are astounding value.
The 4/1 in Inverness and the 6/1 in Caithness are also absolute sitters.
We might not win at the end of the day, but those silly long prices just cannot last.
But you have to concede the apostrophe story is waspishly funny.
And the points he makes about the compromises the party has had to make in order to become popular are true.
Farage is doing well in his recent attempts to deflect accusations of racism and I, for one, don't believe he has a racist cell in his body. But it is the friends he attracts (and to be honest covertly courts) which pollute the mission.
The reflective response of all parties to attack is first to defend. So yes there will be idiots elected as councillors for all parties. And the defence of those idiots will sometimes succeed and leave them in office.
A new protest party which is rapidly gaining in popularity is far more likely to attract nutters and they will be far more likely to pass through filters.
And this being a weakness, it is unsurprising that it becomes the focus of opponents' attacks. It will take some time for UKIP to build a structure and organisational capability which can minimise the exposure to such attacks.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/N-gger-woodpile-Complaint-councillor-uses-racist/story-20715735-detail/story.html
http://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/4851786.Call_for____race_slur____Pendle_councillor_to_resign/
http://www.dover-express.co.uk/Tory-councillor-kicked-party-racist-remark/story-13426594-detail/story.html
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Homophobia-row-continues-path-cleared/story-20776108-detail/story.html
Just five immediate examples of which there are many more. All remained as Tory councillors after short suspensions. If they had been in UKIP the Tories would have been using them as examples of the inherent racism or homophobia of the party.
The attacks on UKIP are merely the price a new entrant party has to pay for attracting the protest vote and gaining popularity rapidly.
If UKIP is to be successful it will emerge stronger for the attacks. Otherwise it risks failure as a result of them. That is political risk.
Since annexations of territories is a new thing in post war europe, how do you recognize eurovision votes from phone calls in annexed territory. For instance does crimean eurovision voters count as Ukrainian or Russian or are not counted at all, and what about breakaway territories like east Ukraine with 8m people?
It's just an act, part of the one political argument they have, namely the absurd line that David Cameron went into politics to 'help his rich mates'. It is a line so risible that even to write it down is to expose its vacuity, but it seems to have some political effect, Lord help us.
The second one, a a 78 yr old man used the ni*ger in the wood pile expression, not in a racist context but as a saying used throughout his life. You think a man should be hounded out of office for that? Shame on you.
The third one now. This kind of crap is what makes people vote UKIP. The councillor did not use the term 'pak*' as a insult, innocent use of language, without malice in any way. Again, because an old man isnt fully together with the nuances of new speak doesnt mean again he should be hounded out of office.
Fourth one seems very stupid, hard to explain away from his context. I would listen to his side, but probably rule against him, and unlikely to reselect him.
And the last one, he probably speaks for far more of his generation than you think. I agree somewhat with him as well. I would be appalled if stonewall was anywhere near my childrens school. In fact i would take them off school for the day.
Nevertheless, I am always impressed, if depressed, at the ability of committed party politicians to sound genuine and passionate about policies which perhaps they used to hold opposite views on, or are little different than their own, as if they are the worse thing in the world. I get toeing the party line out of loyalty, but to spew it as though you truly believe it, or even to actually believe it, despite the mental gynastics sometimes required to somehow make what they are doing and saying different and morally superior from the things their opponents are doing and saying, is taking it to another level entirely.
The 50-45% outrage is a particularly blatant example of the behaviour, but how any of the sides can manufacture the same levels of disdain and outrage or mental blockage of how they too operate the same way, never ceases to astound, but there's little hope it will change. Tories need to scare people away from UKIP and will paint Ed M as some kind of incompetent or effective but malicious force (or both, somehow) as part of that, and Labour know saying 'Evil Tories' enough times is almost enough on its own to win them an election, so there's no incentive to stop the hysteria, as recent Labour efforts have shown.
Pakistani has four syllables. Paki but two. Much easier to enunciate.
I use them freely myself.
Spot the difference:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izej_xd-ESE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daqfr6DJsGc
(Of course South Africa is the one context in which the word "coloured" is still acceptable, because the people in question are strongly in favour of it, preferring it to "mixed race" for some reason).
http://www.news24.com/Elections/Results#map=live&election=national
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBgEMkjwa9c&
Thirteen parties represented, although ENP = 2.27. ENP(p) = 2.26.
LHI = 1.14%. Wasted votes = 0.97%