politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to Easter Monday PB Nighthawks
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to Easter Monday PB Nighthawks
The first holiday weekend of the coronavirus emergency and I find that I am watching a lot more television and not doing all the things that I hoped I would do.
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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3039107/
The pleiotropic cytokine, interleukin-6 (IL-6), has emerged as a key factor in the biology of aging and the physiology of inflammation. Yet much of what we know about the normal functioning of IL-6 has been generated primarily from research on European populations and Americans of European descent. Our analyses compared IL-6 levels in 382 middle-aged and older Japanese to the values found in 1209 Caucasian- and African-Americans from the Midlife in the United States survey (MIDUS). Across the life span from 30–80 years of age, mean IL-6 levels were strikingly lower in Japanese individuals. Significantly lower levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and fibrinogen (FBG) provided confirmatory evidence for a population difference in proinflammatory activity. Because IL-6 release has been associated with obesity, differences in body mass index (BMI) were taken into consideration. Japanese had the lowest, and African-Americans had the highest overall BMIs, but significant group differences in IL-6 persisted even after BMI was included as a covariate in the analyses. Additional support for distinct variation in IL-6 biology was generated when systemic levels of the soluble receptor for IL-6 (sIL-6r) were evaluated. Serum sIL-6r was higher in Japanese than Americans, but was most notably low in African-Americans. Our cytokine data concur with national differences in the prevalence of age-related illnesses linked to inflammatory physiology, including cardiovascular disease. The findings also highlight the importance of broadening the diversity of people included in population studies of health and aging, especially given the relative paucity of information for some Asian countries and on individuals of Asian heritage living in the US.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.01.20047381v2
The pandemic Coronavirus-disease 19 (COVID-19) is characterized by a heterogeneous clinical course. While most patients experience only mild symptoms, a relevant proportion develop severe disease progression with increasing hypoxia up to acute respiratory distress syndrome. The substantial number of patients with severe disease have strained intensive care capacities to an unprecedented level. Owing to the highly variable course and lack of reliable predictors for deterioration, we aimed to identify variables that allow the prediction of patients with a high risk of respiratory failure and need of mechanical ventilation Patients with PCR proven symptomatic COVID-19 infection hospitalized at our institution from 29th February to 27th March 2020 (n=40) were analyzed for baseline clinical and laboratory findings. Patients requiring mechanical ventilation 13/40 (32.5%) did not differ in age, comorbidities, radiological findings, respiratory rate or qSofa score. However, elevated interleukin-6 (IL-6) was strongly associated with the need for mechanical ventilation (p=1.2.10-5). In addition, the maximal IL-6 level (cutoff 80 pg/ml) for each patient during disease predicted respiratory failure with high accuracy (p=1.7.10-8, AUC=0.98). The risk of respiratory failure for patients with IL-6 levels of ≥ 80 pg/ml was 22 times higher compared to patients with lower IL-6 levels. In the current situation with overwhelmed intensive care units and overcrowded emergency rooms, correct triage of patients in need of intensive care is crucial. Our study shows that IL-6 is an effective marker that might be able to predict upcoming respiratory failure with high accuracy and help physicians correctly allocate patients at an early stage.
https://twitter.com/DodgsonStuart/status/1249733113208426497
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1249733984600444928
https://www.change.org/p/united-kingdom-s-labour-party-reinstate-jeremy-corbyn-as-leader-of-the-labour-party?recruiter=false&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=psf_combo_share_initial&recruited_by_id=a65776e0-7d5a-11ea-b483-13798b019ff0&share_bandit_exp=skip-21513043-en-GB&share_bandit_var=v2
probably a spoof as 'Benjamin Netanyahu' started it.
Not half. This gets better by the hour. Pass me some popcorn.
No one knows who actually wrote this "report"?
Please read this report to understand the importance why Sir Jeremy Corbyn needs to be reinstated as Labour Leader.
Benjamin Netanyahu
1 hour ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Hubei_lockdowns
Remember this?
https://youtu.be/Lb1Gc8jiubc
1) The report on the report
2) report on the leak of the report
Probably need to get ahead of events. So
3) A report on the leaking of the report on the report
4) A report on the leaking of the report on the leaking of the report
Then again, to be sure....
If Biden bends over backwards to meet Bernie, surely a decent chunk of the latter's fans will hold their noses and turn out to vote for the Dems?
That isn't the most comforting use of "most likely" I've ever come across, either.
UK predicted deaths down to 23,791 from 37k on friday and 66k on tuesday.
Today apparently was the peak day of the UK wave 1 with 1,156 deaths rather than the 717 reported.
Note this model was released 7 hours after the UK reported the 717 deaths.
Big change this time was sweden predicted deaths up 40% from fridays guess.
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
Go long on lefty think tanks that write reports for money.
Plus or minus.
The earlier widely reported IHME report (the one that predicted 66k UK deaths) assumed the UK had 799 ICU beds. Don't they sense check these things before issuing?
That seems to be Bidens plan.
In fact the number of ICU beds is still wrong, I believe.
Note that the 717 you quote is deaths reported today, which breaks down to about 15-20% that happened yesterday, 50% the day before (Apr 11) and the rest earlier than that. Today could be around a thousand in terms of hospital deaths, but probably quite a lot more when including all deaths.
Edit: Lol. The lower bound on the Italy, Spain and Frances ranges are already below the reported figures according to Worldometer.
Philip of Spain proposed to Elizabeth. As she noted he didn’t “love her very much” so perhaps the prospect of being King of England had some appeal?
Re: the Bank of England
The “wise man” was my 9x-great grandfather who wrote an excoriating pamphlet saying that the foundation of the Bank would lead to inflation, debasement of the currency and ever mounting government indebtedness.
(His opposition may have been influenced by the fact he was a close friend and ally of Abigail Masham)
We gave the Governor a copy of the pamphlet for their 300th birthday 😊
Sweden forecast to be ahead of France which would be quite astonishing as France has over six times the Swedish population
Also, your categorisation of the virus as a "serious disease" is somewhat at odds with your repeated assurances that the best treatment for most people was broth.
European doctors and nurses are preparing to receive the first of €1.5bn (£1.3bn) worth of personal protective equipment (PPE) within days or a maximum of two weeks through a joint procurement scheme involving 25 countries and eight companies, according to internal EU documents.
For most people especially younger people hot broth and rest remains the best solution if they catch it
yeah the 717 doesn't include community deaths but then neither does the model....
There’s this amazing thing that follows both the past and the present. It does not surprise me at all, however, to learn that Europhobes have no concept of the future.
UK total hospital beds available noted as 17,765; Germany = 147,938.
UK ICU beds available noted as 6,781; Germany = 5,891.
France is recorded as only having 1,761 ICU beds, bizarrely.
Slow hand clap
Let's see what happens with the EU's scheme. Their ventilator procurement didn't exactly go well.
(Not aimed at you @williamglenn )
Hours before he announced the first of a massive set of measures to aid business, employees and the self employed.
Admittedly you don’t directly link it to the PPE scheme although context makes it a reasonable inference. “has almost certainly” is a reference to a previous event
https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1249729345549205505
Good night all.
I already know good lung health and low BMI are helpful if you get the virus but that's not seeming to do it.
Come to think of it, don't try and understand. Just giggle inanely. It's like trying to understand what Donald Trump thinks. You are better off not knowing.
The guidance doesn't even prohibit work, just says that employers should make every effort to get people to WFH (Which seems sensible to hold indefinitely).
What is the Sun wittering on about ?
That said, I am also consuming chocolate like never before. So the general health impact for me of lockdown is neutral at best.
In all honesty, my oldest two (10 and 8) are no trouble whatsoever. But it is hard to get anything meaningful done with a child of 6 or under in the house.
Official figures state 40.9 per cent of acute beds unoccupied — about four times the normal number.
Follow major efforts to discharge patients, and sharp drop in admissions.
Critical care in hotspots at more than normal total capacity, especially in Birmingham and the Black Country, and thousands on oxygen."
https://www.hsj.co.uk/acute-care/nhs-hospitals-have-four-times-more-empty-beds-than-normal/
https://www.msnbc.com/the-beat-with-ari/watch/trump-uses-coronavirus-briefing-to-play-propaganda-video-defending-response-time-81992773597