politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » That Boris could be so afflicted brings home in a powerful way
Comments
-
The real deaths were 80% bigger, not 80% too low.williamglenn said:
The latter implies that 4/5 were not reported.0 -
Horror numbers in Belgium today. Has it been discussed/explained as a technical adjustment?0
-
Cumulative, no?Pulpstar said:
I think the bigger takeaway is the 1600 or so deaths on March 27.Selebian said:
Well, that's a misleading way of writing it. On some recent bars, deaths dated for that date are maybe 80% higher than the deaths reported on that day, but the way of writing makes it sounds like 80% of deaths are missing on the reported day (rather than more like 40%)williamglenn said:0 -
-
Can only hope that is correct G, even if it will be back laterBig_G_NorthWales said:
Perception across the world covid 19 has peakedmalcolmg said:
Long may it continueAlastairMeeks said:
Following the Dow Jones, and with sterling falling the FTSE, which makes most of its money outside the Uk, pretty much automatically rises.rottenborough said:Eh? PM lies in ICU, yet FTSE up 2%.
NB:
https://twitter.com/eddyelfenbein/status/1247325085507215361?s=210 -
And this is from an economic editor....Foxy said:
The real deaths were 80% bigger, not 80% too low.williamglenn said:
The latter implies that 4/5 were not reported.0 -
Compare and contrast to the Laura K tweet shared by Scott which you might be forgiven for thinking it was him with the symptoms.williamglenn said:
Journalists eh1 -
-
Problem is, as was amply illustrated by the venerable @Chris and his garbled rantings yesterday, no one has a fucking clue.NorthofStoke said:The consensus on here is that the MSM news coverage has been poor (to say the least) and I admit to several bouts of apoplexy. This has serious implications doesn't it? They are supposed to be the bulwark against fake news and the waves of social media hysteria and misinformation.
There is no "truth" that can be discerned this minute. Hence politicians in conjunction with experts make a call and the media make a call on those calls.
There is no 500 page document describing, if only people could be bothered to read it, what the actual situation is. Just data-driven analysis, judgement calls, and then supposition and speculation (all imperfect to varying degrees).0 -
Ah there you are. We need to return at some point to that "minorities grid" you were trying to explain to me yesterday. I was getting the drift but no more. Certainly not enough to judge whether you were highlighting something serious and reprehensible and widespread or alternatively had a bee in your bonnet over nothing much. In any case, an unsatisfactory outcome, I don't like loose ends.Malmesbury said:No, eternal vigilanteism against leftism is essential. Hmmmmm, silk or hemp?
0 -
Yes, but I think markets are being a bit optimistic. There is a lot of bad economic news to come, even if the medical news is looking less grim.malcolmg said:
Can only hope that is correct G, even if it will be back laterBig_G_NorthWales said:
Perception across the world covid 19 has peakedmalcolmg said:
Long may it continueAlastairMeeks said:
Following the Dow Jones, and with sterling falling the FTSE, which makes most of its money outside the Uk, pretty much automatically rises.rottenborough said:Eh? PM lies in ICU, yet FTSE up 2%.
NB:
https://twitter.com/eddyelfenbein/status/1247325085507215361?s=210 -
Jesus F##king Christ, Fat Head is now speculating on a mechanisms and timing of a Tory party leadership election...1
-
Spain has suffered a setback in its fight against coronavirus as the country's daily death toll increased - putting an end to four straight days of decline.
The country reported 743 deaths on Tuesday, up from the 637 reported Monday and 674 on Sunday.0 -
Does calling people Fat Head make you feel better?FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus F##king Christ, Fat Head is now speculating on a mechanisms and timing of a Tory party leadership election...
It comes across to me as rather pathetic.0 -
“ What is it with you right-wing headbangers that you can't just drop partisan party politics?”Mysticrose said:
Wow, pot kettle black. It's not the Conservative governments (sic) policy. It may have been presented as policy previously (contentious) but most certainly isn't now. Which was the point of the article.TGOHF666 said:Mysticrose said:TGOHF666 said:
Eternal vigilance against leftism is essential - even in these dark times.Gallowgate said:@TGOHF666 your party political partisanship is not needed, helpful, or welcome at this time. Give it a rest.
None of us on the left are remotely interested in right-left or remain-brexit memes.
.
She says minutes after posting a link to a Guardian attack piece falsely representing the Conservative governments policy.
Which is fine - but don't expect us not to laugh at the hypocrisy.
What is it with you right-wing headbangers that you can't just drop partisan party politics? It's so unbecoming of you, your party and this nation right now.
We're all rooting for Boris. Get with it.
That’s a great line1 -
It has no more suffered a setback than it did a relief when a few days numbers declined.FrancisUrquhart said:Spain has suffered a setback in its fight against coronavirus as the country's daily death toll increased - putting an end to four straight days of decline.
The country reported 743 deaths on Tuesday, up from the 637 reported Monday and 674 on Sunday.
As someone (on here in fact) put it so well some time ago. The majority of this is just people drawing a line through several data points. We are a long way from being able to discern a trend.1 -
Absolutely. Some of the trend "fits" are just nonsense, as are the death charts that don't account for things like population difference.TOPPING said:
It has no more suffered a setback than it did a relief when a few days numbers declined.FrancisUrquhart said:Spain has suffered a setback in its fight against coronavirus as the country's daily death toll increased - putting an end to four straight days of decline.
The country reported 743 deaths on Tuesday, up from the 637 reported Monday and 674 on Sunday.
As someone (on here in fact) put it so well some time ago. The majority of this is just people drawing a line through several data points. We are a long way from being able to discern a trend.0 -
Deep respect. I can write short stories, novellas and I've even had some published, but only on a very limited scale.Mysticrose said:
You really are an utter prick aren't you. I won't even bother with the ?TGOHF666 said:
Whilst running a marathon - on a treadmill etc.squareroot2 said:
I thought you were writing a novelMysticrose said:
+1 x 10,000,000Gallowgate said:@TGOHF666 your party political partisanship is not needed, helpful, or welcome at this time. Give it a rest.
As per my message. Well said.
I'm assuming it will be an autobiography to be filed under fiction.
I'm a bestselling author but I keep my cards just a little closer to my chest than my new-found friend Sean. I mean Tom. I mean Eadric. I could post up my links and my pen-name but you're not worth it. (You I mean, not the rest of pb.com who are gracious and intelligent and sensible for the most part.)
Back to it.0 -
0
-
TIL: the French for curfew (and, I'm guessing, etymology of the word) is couvre feu.Scott_xP said:0 -
Hearts of stone come to mind.Verulamius said:Aaron Banks (remember him?) has just lost his tax case on gifts to UKIP during the 2010 parliament.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5e8b3f8486650c18c82f0702/Arron_Banks_v_HMRC.pdf
Under s24 IHTA 1984 gifts to political parties are exempt from IHT if at the most recent General Election either 2 MPs were elected for that party, or 1 MP and not less than 150,000 votes for candidates for that party.
As UKIP had no elected MPs in the 2010 general election it did not meet the conditions in s24.
Aaron Banks was claiming that s24 discriminated against his political rights under the European Convention of Human Rights and therefore his gifts (via his personal company) to UKIP should be IHT exempt.
The tribunal held that s24 was not discriminatory, so Aaron Banks lost.
Gifts to UKIP during the 2015 parliament would have qualified.
0 -
900 was 1600 but the Government cant really count deaths as CV related until recorded as such so I think the lag is more 1.4 rather than 1.8 if we just want to add XV deaths at home.Pulpstar said:
Fucking hellwilliamglenn said:0 -
To be fair I did that last night.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus F##king Christ, Fat Head is now speculating on a mechanisms and timing of a Tory party leadership election...
I came to the conclusion that it would be easier to choose a new PM and let the Tory leadership vacancy last until the end of the Covid-19 crisis.0 -
These ONS stats,
"The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease."
We know that of those admitted to hospital with very serious CV type symptoms and are tested, only about 33-40% actually turn out to be positive.1 -
bigjohnowls said:
900 was 1600 but the Government cant really count deaths as CV related until recorded as such so I think the lag is more 1.4 rather than 1.8 if we just want to add CV deaths at home.Pulpstar said:
Fucking hellwilliamglenn said:0 -
-
There are lies, d*mned lies and statistics...FrancisUrquhart said:
And this is from an economic editor....Foxy said:
The real deaths were 80% bigger, not 80% too low.williamglenn said:
The latter implies that 4/5 were not reported.
Just looking at the graphs (and his other tweets), the red lines are about half the size of the other line so you could say that the reported rate is 50% of the actual or that the actual is 100% bigger than the reported. I know which makes the better headline.....
We all should know by now that information from different sources, collected in different ways will vary in absolute terms but hopefully show the same trends as each other.
0 -
I was attempting gallows humour.kinabalu said:
Ah there you are. We need to return at some point to that "minorities grid" you were trying to explain to me yesterday. I was getting the drift but no more. Certainly not enough to judge whether you were highlighting something serious and reprehensible and widespread or alternatively had a bee in your bonnet over nothing much. In any case, an unsatisfactory outcome, I don't like loose ends.Malmesbury said:No, eternal vigilanteism against leftism is essential. Hmmmmm, silk or hemp?
Which is also my view of the spectacle of "grid" style social engineering. Each time it produces a stupid result the morons try and correct it. Not realising the goal itself is the stupid bit.
Segmenting the population into a series of groups that you treat/punish differently - and then wonder why society seems to be becoming more fragmented.
we could of course try treating people as equally valuable human beings, bound by the same rules and owed the same respect. But I'm told that's bad....0 -
Off to Conservative Home with a pineapple pizza for you.TheScreamingEagles said:
To be fair I did that last night.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus F##king Christ, Fat Head is now speculating on a mechanisms and timing of a Tory party leadership election...
I came to the conclusion that it would be easier to choose a new PM and let the Tory leadership vacancy last until the end of the Covid-19 crisis.0 -
Oh, they`re so precious aren`t they.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I do wonder about who is advising them, although perhaps they aren't taking any notice. I can't believe any PR expert would be suggesting this is a good idea at the moment.CarlottaVance said:1 -
When tides go out, waves still come in. They just go little further out each time.FrancisUrquhart said:Spain has suffered a setback in its fight against coronavirus as the country's daily death toll increased - putting an end to four straight days of decline.
The country reported 743 deaths on Tuesday, up from the 637 reported Monday and 674 on Sunday.2 -
I know.FrancisUrquhart said:
Off to Conservative Home with a pineapple pizza for you.TheScreamingEagles said:
To be fair I did that last night.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus F##king Christ, Fat Head is now speculating on a mechanisms and timing of a Tory party leadership election...
I came to the conclusion that it would be easier to choose a new PM and let the Tory leadership vacancy last until the end of the Covid-19 crisis.0 -
Belgian figures are awful today.
Meanwhile in the UK, despite over 500 recorded Covid deaths in the week of the 27th, more people died from respiratory issues every single week in Jan and Feb than in that week inclusive of Covid. Suspect this is the last week of data we'll be able to say that for, but nevertheless still worthwhile context0 -
Reuters is reporting that Germany has recorded another 3,834 cases of Covid-19, bringing its total number of cases to 99,225, with 1,607 deaths.
That's France, Spain, Germany, Belgium, Japan are recording "worse" numbers.
I think those talking about lifting the lockdown and his will be done and dusted in a few weeks from now are deluded.0 -
Yes, plus the constant inability to deal with scientific or numerate issues.FrancisUrquhart said:
I keep hoping as this moved from could be serious, to is serious, to f##k this is WWIII levels serious, they might drop all the usual crap, but if anything they have got worse.NorthofStoke said:The consensus on here is that the MSM news coverage has been poor (to say the least) and I admit to several bouts of apoplexy. This has serious implications doesn't it? They are supposed to be the bulwark against fake news and the waves of social media hysteria and misinformation.
We have the head of government in ICU and they are still acting like they are reporting on somebody tweeting something inappropriate or been spotted in Waitrose when they said they only shop in Morrisons.
0 -
Why on earth do they have a specific job for this? We just have a few managers put on a task force for a couple of hours a month, and they get input from everyone. Seems to work just fineTGOHF666 said:
University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation TrustBeibheirli_C said:
You think it is possible for them to spend (and commit to spend) more than this govt? You may not have noticed, but the current officeholders are hosing money all over the place and even pre-lockdown, Boris was being accused of implementing Corbyn/McDonnell's policiessquareroot2 said:
over verbose. the last 5 words are not required.TGOHF666 said:
We might not have an economy left to pay for the NHS if we don't take a balanced approach to lifting the lockdown.Endillion said:Assuming (and hoping) that Johnson survives and fights the next election, it's going to be damn near impossible for Starmer to lead with the usual "who loves the NHS more" line.
Certainly we can't afford a Labour government for at least another decade.
Job Reference: 387-TS-4186-KM
Employer:University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation TrustDepartment:Diversity and InclusionLocation:Trust Headquarters, BristolSalary:£44,606 - £50,819 pa
There really has never been a more exciting time to join us; University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust and Weston Area Health NHS Trust joined together as one organisation on 1st April 2020.
Our newly merged Trust has a combined workforce of over 13,000 staff, aiming to deliver exceptional local services for local people and specialist services across the South West and beyond. Together, we form one of the largest NHS trusts in the country.
Diversity and Inclusion Manager - AFC Band 8a (pending matching)
Full time 37.5 hours per week
Are you looking for a new challenge?
An exciting opportunity has arisen for a high performing and dynamic individual to join us in developing and delivering a key programme of work to drive the Trust's ambition and vision of being committed to inclusion in everything we do.
In line with the Workforce Diversity and Inclusion Strategy, the post holder will develop, lead on and evaluate a programme of work integral to the organisational development plan, focusing in particular on diversity and inclusion. The post holder will ensure the programme is delivered in accordance with the Trust’s Strategy, Vision, Values and desired culture to ensure that the Trust is equipped to provide a world class patient experience and a great place to work for its staff.
Interview Date: 29th April 20200 -
What I would like to see is the death rate per day. I believe ONS figures only go up to 22nd March.
1600 per day would suggest the overall death rate has doubled.0 -
I think you may be at the wrong website?FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus F##king Christ, Fat Head is now speculating on a mechanisms and timing of a Tory party leadership election...
0 -
In the UK this appeal would not have been allowed as there was, as I understand it, no new evidence and you can't appeal on the basis that the jury's verdict was perverse, no matter how clear it is that the jury has ignored the evidence. In Australia it is possible to appeal on the basis that the jury's verdict was unreasonable.Endillion said:
I don't understand how the following sentence is compatible with the system of trial by jury, at all:rkrkrk said:Completely off topic - but since there are a more than a few lawyers on here... how do things like this happen?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-52183157
I can understand a jury coming to a different view to judges. That makes sense to me. But I can't really understand how a lower court finds one thing, and then a higher court unanimously finds the opposite?
I have no knowledge of the Australian legal system. It just seems very strange to a complete layperson, and not a little discomforting, to think that it is apparently so arbitrary whether you are guilty or not?
If the lower court judges are wrong, should there be some consequence for them?
Are there consequences for judges who frequently make the 'wrong' decision?
The jury, acting rationally on the whole of the evidence, ought to have entertained a doubt as to the applicant's guilt.
If judges can assess questions like that, what is the point of the jury system in the first place?
On a separate note, the Supreme Court's ruling that the proroguing of Parliament last year was unlawful was also unanimous. At the time, I found it bizarre that they could all agree on something when the High Court had already found the opposite.
The difference between the lower court and the higher court in this case was essentially one of approach. The lower court took the view that the "opportunity evidence" (which was unchallenged and was inconsistent with the prosecution case) left open the possibility that the prosecution may have been correct. The higher court took the view that the lower court had failed to consider whether the evidence (which essentially showed that there had not been any opportunity for Pell to commit the offences) meant there was a reasonable possibility that the offences had not taken place.
As for the lower court finding one thing and then a higher court unanimously disagreeing, if that couldn't happen the higher courts would serve no purpose. And note that, in this case, there was a dissenting judge in the lower court. So the higher court has agreed with the dissenting judge.0 -
Its weekend syndrome..every weekends reporting numbers from around the globe but especially in Europe are low and then they bounce back on Tuesday and Wednesday. Todays UK figures will be nasty because of that.OldKingCole said:
When tides go out, waves still come in. They just go little further out each time.FrancisUrquhart said:Spain has suffered a setback in its fight against coronavirus as the country's daily death toll increased - putting an end to four straight days of decline.
The country reported 743 deaths on Tuesday, up from the 637 reported Monday and 674 on Sunday.0 -
Also have to suspect that as testing is ramped up the +ve % may fall a bit too.FrancisUrquhart said:These ONS stats,
"The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease."
We know that of those admitted to hospital with very serious CV type symptoms and are tested, only about 33-40% actually turn out to be positive.0 -
Again its that consequence of underreporting over the weekend..will average out over next two days..maaarsh said:Belgian figures are awful today.
Meanwhile in the UK, despite over 500 recorded Covid deaths in the week of the 27th, more people died from respiratory issues every single week in Jan and Feb than in that week inclusive of Covid. Suspect this is the last week of data we'll be able to say that for, but nevertheless still worthwhile context
Trouble is the 24hr news cycle doesn't allow for that.1 -
Somebody save us from Patel!!!!!edmundintokyo said:
I think you may be at the wrong website?FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus F##king Christ, Fat Head is now speculating on a mechanisms and timing of a Tory party leadership election...
0 -
Indeed - I keep posting that here in Spain the best interpretation is that we are now in the flattened curve stage. A form of significant lockdown beyond the current April 26th is all but certain. There is unlikely to be any kind of tourist summer for the Costas. Most locals here are very keen to keep the second homers away for the forseeable future. I think the idea of foreigners travelling much before September is also for the birds. I do think more 'normal' work will resume in May in those industries where the amount of social contact is minimal or can easily be controlled. We are in a long, slow marathon. The UK is about 2 weeks behind us - as are many other European countries. The relaxations announced today in Austria and Denmark are I think very dangerous.TOPPING said:
It has no more suffered a setback than it did a relief when a few days numbers declined.FrancisUrquhart said:Spain has suffered a setback in its fight against coronavirus as the country's daily death toll increased - putting an end to four straight days of decline.
The country reported 743 deaths on Tuesday, up from the 637 reported Monday and 674 on Sunday.
As someone (on here in fact) put it so well some time ago. The majority of this is just people drawing a line through several data points. We are a long way from being able to discern a trend.0 -
You obviously haven't encountered the modern large organisation jobsworths. You are fined 3 credits for a written violation of the Respect For Pointless Non Jobs Act 2019 (Amended)JonCisBack said:
Why on earth do they have a specific job for this? We just have a few managers put on a task force for a couple of hours a month, and they get input from everyone. Seems to work just fineTGOHF666 said:
University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation TrustBeibheirli_C said:
You think it is possible for them to spend (and commit to spend) more than this govt? You may not have noticed, but the current officeholders are hosing money all over the place and even pre-lockdown, Boris was being accused of implementing Corbyn/McDonnell's policiessquareroot2 said:
over verbose. the last 5 words are not required.TGOHF666 said:
We might not have an economy left to pay for the NHS if we don't take a balanced approach to lifting the lockdown.Endillion said:Assuming (and hoping) that Johnson survives and fights the next election, it's going to be damn near impossible for Starmer to lead with the usual "who loves the NHS more" line.
Certainly we can't afford a Labour government for at least another decade.
Job Reference: 387-TS-4186-KM
Employer:University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation TrustDepartment:Diversity and InclusionLocation:Trust Headquarters, BristolSalary:£44,606 - £50,819 pa
There really has never been a more exciting time to join us; University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust and Weston Area Health NHS Trust joined together as one organisation on 1st April 2020.
Our newly merged Trust has a combined workforce of over 13,000 staff, aiming to deliver exceptional local services for local people and specialist services across the South West and beyond. Together, we form one of the largest NHS trusts in the country.
Diversity and Inclusion Manager - AFC Band 8a (pending matching)
Full time 37.5 hours per week
Are you looking for a new challenge?
An exciting opportunity has arisen for a high performing and dynamic individual to join us in developing and delivering a key programme of work to drive the Trust's ambition and vision of being committed to inclusion in everything we do.
In line with the Workforce Diversity and Inclusion Strategy, the post holder will develop, lead on and evaluate a programme of work integral to the organisational development plan, focusing in particular on diversity and inclusion. The post holder will ensure the programme is delivered in accordance with the Trust’s Strategy, Vision, Values and desired culture to ensure that the Trust is equipped to provide a world class patient experience and a great place to work for its staff.
Interview Date: 29th April 2020
For some people https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0106697/ depicts the ideal society which they wish to create.0 -
Not even almost crap statistics. Looks as though ALL deaths are being reported. Would it not be sensible, when producing these graphs to have a baseline of, say, the daily deaths for March and April in 2019? That way we might have some real idea.FrancisUrquhart said:These ONS stats,
"The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease."
We know that of those admitted to hospital with very serious CV type symptoms and are tested, only about 33-40% actually turn out to be positive.0 -
Those ONS figures are cumulative total deaths not daily death rates. At the end of March, the NHS figures were 200-300 deaths a day. Its only been in the last few days that we have been at 1000 deaths a day.Frank_Booth said:What I would like to see is the death rate per day. I believe ONS figures only go up to 22nd March.
1600 per day would suggest the overall death rate has doubled.0 -
I'm no fan of Banks or UKIP but I think he is morally right.Verulamius said:Aaron Banks (remember him?) has just lost his tax case on gifts to UKIP during the 2010 parliament.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5e8b3f8486650c18c82f0702/Arron_Banks_v_HMRC.pdf
Under s24 IHTA 1984 gifts to political parties are exempt from IHT if at the most recent General Election either 2 MPs were elected for that party, or 1 MP and not less than 150,000 votes for candidates for that party.
As UKIP had no elected MPs in the 2010 general election it did not meet the conditions in s24.
Aaron Banks was claiming that s24 discriminated against his political rights under the European Convention of Human Rights and therefore his gifts (via his personal company) to UKIP should be IHT exempt.
The tribunal held that s24 was not discriminatory, so Aaron Banks lost.
Gifts to UKIP during the 2015 parliament would have qualified.
UKIP were a bona fide political party whether you like them or not with political aims even when they had no MPs, as were the Greens when they had no MPs.0 -
They had 103,375 cases as of yesterday according to worldometersFrancisUrquhart said:Reuters is reporting that Germany has recorded another 3,834 cases of Covid-19, bringing its total number of cases to 99,225, with 1,607 deaths.
That's France, Spain, Germany, Belgium, Japan are recording "worse" numbers.
I think those talking about lifting the lockdown and his will be done and dusted in a few weeks from now are deluded.0 -
Who?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Are the journalists making a dog's breakfast of reporting these new death figures?0
-
And that name is Consignia level bad. Unpronounceable and overtones of arch, hell and chew (18th century synonym for a blowjob according to William Golding).FrancisUrquhart said:
I do wonder about who is advising them, although perhaps they aren't taking any notice. I can't believe any PR expert would be suggesting this is a good idea at the moment.CarlottaVance said:0 -
What are you saying that people die of other stuff too? I never knew that :-)OldKingCole said:
Not even almost crap statistics. Looks as though ALL deaths are being reported. Would it not be sensible, when producing these graphs to have a baseline of, say, the daily deaths for March and April in 2019? That way we might have some real idea.FrancisUrquhart said:These ONS stats,
"The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease."
We know that of those admitted to hospital with very serious CV type symptoms and are tested, only about 33-40% actually turn out to be positive.
As you say, we need to see what the normal average daily deaths at this time of year, with variance intervals, and then plot them against this.0 -
I think she might actually be OK for the current situation, she's dumb as fuck but she hates freedom and she probably has a self-image of being bold and decisive like Thatcher. Generally speaking someone like that should be kept as far away from power as possible but in this case it might be what we need.rottenborough said:
Somebody save us from Patel!!!!!edmundintokyo said:
I think you may be at the wrong website?FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus F##king Christ, Fat Head is now speculating on a mechanisms and timing of a Tory party leadership election...
0 -
I wonder if the 1600 deaths on the 27/3/2020 recorded as having something to do with Covid-19 were all actually tested as these would make up a very large proportion of the positive tests.0
-
The spreadsheet has just such a baseline in it. Up to the 27th March there is little sign of excess mortality overall, but would expect next week's figures to be the first time the number is large enough to show through (and it'll then be interesting to see the disconnect between the Covid number and the movement in the overall total)OldKingCole said:
Not even almost crap statistics. Looks as though ALL deaths are being reported. Would it not be sensible, when producing these graphs to have a baseline of, say, the daily deaths for March and April in 2019? That way we might have some real idea.FrancisUrquhart said:These ONS stats,
"The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease."
We know that of those admitted to hospital with very serious CV type symptoms and are tested, only about 33-40% actually turn out to be positive.0 -
Not exactly a fan of Nicola, but think this was going a step too far.....
https://twitter.com/ianssmart/status/12472839738201210940 -
Death rate up by 10% to March 27th - that's how I read it anyway. Saying that it would have been three or four days before things started to motor.0
-
No, they've recorded them even if COVID is suspected - but we know most suspected tests are negative, so quite possibly many of those were not COVID deaths.NerysHughes said:I wonder if the 1600 deaths on the 27/3/2020 recorded as having something to do with Covid-19 were all actually tested as these would make up a very large proportion of the positive tests.
0 -
Evidence?eek said:
Wave 1 might have done... Unless it's 100% stabbed out (and it won't be) future waves are inevitable.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Perception across the world covid 19 has peakedmalcolmg said:
Long may it continueAlastairMeeks said:
Following the Dow Jones, and with sterling falling the FTSE, which makes most of its money outside the Uk, pretty much automatically rises.rottenborough said:Eh? PM lies in ICU, yet FTSE up 2%.
NB:
https://twitter.com/eddyelfenbein/status/1247325085507215361?s=210 -
This is the website with all the historic data.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales0 -
On GMB the politics reporter said this morning that the cabinet can vote someone else in if they thought Raab wasn’t up to itTheScreamingEagles said:
I know.FrancisUrquhart said:
Off to Conservative Home with a pineapple pizza for you.TheScreamingEagles said:
To be fair I did that last night.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus F##king Christ, Fat Head is now speculating on a mechanisms and timing of a Tory party leadership election...
I came to the conclusion that it would be easier to choose a new PM and let the Tory leadership vacancy last until the end of the Covid-19 crisis.0 -
Yes, I didn’t understand that either.kinabalu said:
Ah there you are. We need to return at some point to that "minorities grid" you were trying to explain to me yesterday. I was getting the drift but no more. Certainly not enough to judge whether you were highlighting something serious and reprehensible and widespread or alternatively had a bee in your bonnet over nothing much. In any case, an unsatisfactory outcome, I don't like loose ends.Malmesbury said:No, eternal vigilanteism against leftism is essential. Hmmmmm, silk or hemp?
1 -
I think the testing numbers on that cohort would be low.NerysHughes said:I wonder if the 1600 deaths on the 27/3/2020 recorded as having something to do with Covid-19 were all actually tested as these would make up a very large proportion of the positive tests.
0 -
"Step too far"?RandallFlagg said:Not exactly a fan of Nicola, but think this was going a step too far.....
https://twitter.com/ianssmart/status/1247283973820121094
That's a disgusting comment.0 -
I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.0
-
Who are you referring to?FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus F##king Christ, Fat Head is now speculating on a mechanisms and timing of a Tory party leadership election...
0 -
Though rarely would the test be on the day that they died, usually that would be done a week or so earlier, when they were admitted.NerysHughes said:I wonder if the 1600 deaths on the 27/3/2020 recorded as having something to do with Covid-19 were all actually tested as these would make up a very large proportion of the positive tests.
This twitter thread gives a bit more detail, of the level of deaths over expected.
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1247443057324306432?s=19
0 -
Total respiratory deaths are flat week on week, despite there being an extra 440 Covid deaths included in that category.FrancisUrquhart said:I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
We are going to have to wait until the bigger numbers next week to confirm, but there does appear to be some crowding out going on.0 -
I was pointing out example of how identity politics when confronted with the complexity of modern society produce ever more farcical results. This is not just ridiculous - it produces positive harm.Anabobazina said:
Yes, I didn’t understand that either.kinabalu said:
Ah there you are. We need to return at some point to that "minorities grid" you were trying to explain to me yesterday. I was getting the drift but no more. Certainly not enough to judge whether you were highlighting something serious and reprehensible and widespread or alternatively had a bee in your bonnet over nothing much. In any case, an unsatisfactory outcome, I don't like loose ends.Malmesbury said:No, eternal vigilanteism against leftism is essential. Hmmmmm, silk or hemp?
For example in the infamous Baby P case, the social worker who was annoying people by suggesting that the baby was being brutally mistreated was under investigation. To the point that her bosses energy was focused entirely on that.
0 -
I dont think that correct, from the ONS tweet that I cited.FrancisUrquhart said:I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
0 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
What are you saying that people die of other stuff too? I never knew that :-)OldKingCole said:
Not even almost crap statistics. Looks as though ALL deaths are being reported. Would it not be sensible, when producing these graphs to have a baseline of, say, the daily deaths for March and April in 2019? That way we might have some real idea.FrancisUrquhart said:These ONS stats,
"The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease."
We know that of those admitted to hospital with very serious CV type symptoms and are tested, only about 33-40% actually turn out to be positive.
As you say, we need to see what the normal average daily deaths at this time of year, with variance intervals, and then plot them against this.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/quarterlymortalityreports/januarytomarch20190 -
SecondedPhilip_Thompson said:
"Step too far"?RandallFlagg said:Not exactly a fan of Nicola, but think this was going a step too far.....
https://twitter.com/ianssmart/status/1247283973820121094
That's a disgusting comment.1 -
Sorry for being dense but what do you mean by crowding out?maaarsh said:
Total respiratory deaths are flat week on week, despite there being an extra 440 Covid deaths included in that category.FrancisUrquhart said:I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
We are going to have to wait until the bigger numbers next week to confirm, but there does appear to be some crowding out going on.0 -
Hard to see how having a PM who is obviously stupid is “what we need”.edmundintokyo said:
I think she might actually be OK for the current situation, she's dumb as fuck but she hates freedom and she probably has a self-image of being bold and decisive like Thatcher. Generally speaking someone like that should be kept as far away from power as possible but in this case it might be what we need.rottenborough said:
Somebody save us from Patel!!!!!edmundintokyo said:
I think you may be at the wrong website?FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus F##king Christ, Fat Head is now speculating on a mechanisms and timing of a Tory party leadership election...
1 -
Covid deaths > total change in deaths - i.e. Covid stepping in to take the 'credit' for a death which would have come from another recorded cause ordinarilyAndy_JS said:
Sorry for being dense but what do you mean by crowding out?maaarsh said:
Total respiratory deaths are flat week on week, despite there being an extra 440 Covid deaths included in that category.FrancisUrquhart said:I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
We are going to have to wait until the bigger numbers next week to confirm, but there does appear to be some crowding out going on.1 -
And 1810 deaths ........bigjohnowls said:
They had 103,375 cases as of yesterday according to worldometersFrancisUrquhart said:Reuters is reporting that Germany has recorded another 3,834 cases of Covid-19, bringing its total number of cases to 99,225, with 1,607 deaths.
That's France, Spain, Germany, Belgium, Japan are recording "worse" numbers.
I think those talking about lifting the lockdown and his will be done and dusted in a few weeks from now are deluded.
0 -
Agreed 100%maaarsh said:
Covid deaths < total change in deaths - i.e. Covid stepping in to take the 'credit' for a death which would have come from another recorded cause ordinarilyAndy_JS said:
Sorry for being dense but what do you mean by crowding out?maaarsh said:
Total respiratory deaths are flat week on week, despite there being an extra 440 Covid deaths included in that category.FrancisUrquhart said:I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
We are going to have to wait until the bigger numbers next week to confirm, but there does appear to be some crowding out going on.0 -
I haven't seen a reason given but I think it is because a bet on a 2020 exit has become almost a pure punt on him dying. With Biden, death is the mix but he is not lying in an ICU right now and there are other feasible ways in which he will not be the nominee.edmundintokyo said:Have we heard anything from them about why they've suspended it? If it's because it's a market on him dying then you have to wonder what they think Biden's so far off a cert for the nomination. OTOH it might just be because there's a lot of potential for people to have inside information right now.
1 -
Yup. A similar chart was reported in the Sunday Times. Death rate down on the average in Q1. I believe it was you showing ‘normal’ pneumonia deaths falling off a cliff - of course many of those deaths are now being credited to Coronavirus. Sadly most of our journalists are innumerate and don’t grasp the concept of baselines (or don’t want to).isam said:FrancisUrquhart said:
What are you saying that people die of other stuff too? I never knew that :-)OldKingCole said:
Not even almost crap statistics. Looks as though ALL deaths are being reported. Would it not be sensible, when producing these graphs to have a baseline of, say, the daily deaths for March and April in 2019? That way we might have some real idea.FrancisUrquhart said:These ONS stats,
"The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease."
We know that of those admitted to hospital with very serious CV type symptoms and are tested, only about 33-40% actually turn out to be positive.
As you say, we need to see what the normal average daily deaths at this time of year, with variance intervals, and then plot them against this.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/quarterlymortalityreports/januarytomarch20190 -
Well, it might be pointed out that the Black Death continued to come in waves in Europe for over 350 years, with the last major outbreak occurring in Marseilles in 1720.Anabobazina said:
Evidence?eek said:
Wave 1 might have done... Unless it's 100% stabbed out (and it won't be) future waves are inevitable.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Perception across the world covid 19 has peakedmalcolmg said:
Long may it continueAlastairMeeks said:
Following the Dow Jones, and with sterling falling the FTSE, which makes most of its money outside the Uk, pretty much automatically rises.rottenborough said:Eh? PM lies in ICU, yet FTSE up 2%.
NB:
https://twitter.com/eddyelfenbein/status/1247325085507215361?s=21
Then there were significant outbreaks in Asia, particularly China, in the late nineteenth century and carried on the trade routes there were major outbreaks in California as late as 1924.
Since that time bubonic plague has declined across the globe for some reason. Nobody seems to know why.
Hopefully it won’t take 500 years this time.0 -
Apart from I got the inequality the wrong way round!Philip_Thompson said:
Agreed 100%maaarsh said:
Covid deaths < total change in deaths - i.e. Covid stepping in to take the 'credit' for a death which would have come from another recorded cause ordinarilyAndy_JS said:
Sorry for being dense but what do you mean by crowding out?maaarsh said:
Total respiratory deaths are flat week on week, despite there being an extra 440 Covid deaths included in that category.FrancisUrquhart said:I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
We are going to have to wait until the bigger numbers next week to confirm, but there does appear to be some crowding out going on.0 -
The enemy is 4KB in size, you can print it on a page of A4. It's not winning because it's smarter than us, it's winning because it's faster than us.Anabobazina said:
Hard to see how having a PM who is obviously stupid is “what we need”.edmundintokyo said:
I think she might actually be OK for the current situation, she's dumb as fuck but she hates freedom and she probably has a self-image of being bold and decisive like Thatcher. Generally speaking someone like that should be kept as far away from power as possible but in this case it might be what we need.rottenborough said:
Somebody save us from Patel!!!!!edmundintokyo said:
I think you may be at the wrong website?FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus F##king Christ, Fat Head is now speculating on a mechanisms and timing of a Tory party leadership election...
PS I could also mentoned that she's corrupt af, but I'm prepared to put up with a certain amount of stealing in return for making decisions before it's too late.0 -
In England you can appeal on the basis that the verdict is 'unsafe' and it is possible to argue that the weight and quality of the evidence of innocence is such that the jury erred in convicting. This isn't common, mostly because it is a rare occurrence.prh47bridge said:
In the UK this appeal would not have been allowed as there was, as I understand it, no new evidence and you can't appeal on the basis that the jury's verdict was perverse, no matter how clear it is that the jury has ignored the evidence. In Australia it is possible to appeal on the basis that the jury's verdict was unreasonable.Endillion said:
I don't understand how the following sentence is compatible with the system of trial by jury, at all:rkrkrk said:Completely off topic - but since there are a more than a few lawyers on here... how do things like this happen?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-52183157
I can understand a jury coming to a different view to judges. That makes sense to me. But I can't really understand how a lower court finds one thing, and then a higher court unanimously finds the opposite?
I have no knowledge of the Australian legal system. It just seems very strange to a complete layperson, and not a little discomforting, to think that it is apparently so arbitrary whether you are guilty or not?
If the lower court judges are wrong, should there be some consequence for them?
Are there consequences for judges who frequently make the 'wrong' decision?
The jury, acting rationally on the whole of the evidence, ought to have entertained a doubt as to the applicant's guilt.
If judges can assess questions like that, what is the point of the jury system in the first place?
On a separate note, the Supreme Court's ruling that the proroguing of Parliament last year was unlawful was also unanimous. At the time, I found it bizarre that they could all agree on something when the High Court had already found the opposite.
The difference between the lower court and the higher court in this case was essentially one of approach. The lower court took the view that the "opportunity evidence" (which was unchallenged and was inconsistent with the prosecution case) left open the possibility that the prosecution may have been correct. The higher court took the view that the lower court had failed to consider whether the evidence (which essentially showed that there had not been any opportunity for Pell to commit the offences) meant there was a reasonable possibility that the offences had not taken place.
As for the lower court finding one thing and then a higher court unanimously disagreeing, if that couldn't happen the higher courts would serve no purpose. And note that, in this case, there was a dissenting judge in the lower court. So the higher court has agreed with the dissenting judge.
0 -
LOL yes I overlooked that. Agreed in your conclusion.maaarsh said:
Apart from I got the inequality the wrong way round!Philip_Thompson said:
Agreed 100%maaarsh said:
Covid deaths < total change in deaths - i.e. Covid stepping in to take the 'credit' for a death which would have come from another recorded cause ordinarilyAndy_JS said:
Sorry for being dense but what do you mean by crowding out?maaarsh said:
Total respiratory deaths are flat week on week, despite there being an extra 440 Covid deaths included in that category.FrancisUrquhart said:I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
We are going to have to wait until the bigger numbers next week to confirm, but there does appear to be some crowding out going on.
0 -
Anyway asthma related deaths in cities must be down massively.Foxy said:
I dont think that correct, from the ONS tweet that I cited.FrancisUrquhart said:I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
1 -
That middle "e" is going to irritate me every time I see it. Which won't be that often, I hope.IshmaelZ said:
And that name is Consignia level bad. Unpronounceable and overtones of arch, hell and chew (18th century synonym for a blowjob according to William Golding).FrancisUrquhart said:
I do wonder about who is advising them, although perhaps they aren't taking any notice. I can't believe any PR expert would be suggesting this is a good idea at the moment.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Total deaths rose up 1k higher than prior year average, but that isn't being driven by respiratory deaths by the looks of things. And a 1k variation against the 5 year average is not far off par for the course this year at least. Currently running just under 4k better off that the average on a YTD basisFoxy said:
I dont think that correct, from the ONS tweet that I cited.FrancisUrquhart said:I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
0 -
That’s not evidence, next.ydoethur said:
Well, it might be pointed out that the Black Death continued to come in waves in Europe for over 350 years, with the last major outbreak occurring in Marseilles in 1720.Anabobazina said:
Evidence?eek said:
Wave 1 might have done... Unless it's 100% stabbed out (and it won't be) future waves are inevitable.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Perception across the world covid 19 has peakedmalcolmg said:
Long may it continueAlastairMeeks said:
Following the Dow Jones, and with sterling falling the FTSE, which makes most of its money outside the Uk, pretty much automatically rises.rottenborough said:Eh? PM lies in ICU, yet FTSE up 2%.
NB:
https://twitter.com/eddyelfenbein/status/1247325085507215361?s=21
Then there were significant outbreaks in Asia, particularly China, in the late nineteenth century and carried on the trade routes there were major outbreaks in California as late as 1924.
Since that time bubonic plague has declined across the globe for some reason. Nobody seems to know why.
Hopefully it won’t take 500 years this time.0 -
Yes it is. The only disease I can think of that has been completely stamped out is smallpox and that only after mass vaccinations.Anabobazina said:
That’s not evidence, next.ydoethur said:
Well, it might be pointed out that the Black Death continued to come in waves in Europe for over 350 years, with the last major outbreak occurring in Marseilles in 1720.Anabobazina said:
Evidence?eek said:
Wave 1 might have done... Unless it's 100% stabbed out (and it won't be) future waves are inevitable.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Perception across the world covid 19 has peakedmalcolmg said:
Long may it continueAlastairMeeks said:
Following the Dow Jones, and with sterling falling the FTSE, which makes most of its money outside the Uk, pretty much automatically rises.rottenborough said:Eh? PM lies in ICU, yet FTSE up 2%.
NB:
https://twitter.com/eddyelfenbein/status/1247325085507215361?s=21
Then there were significant outbreaks in Asia, particularly China, in the late nineteenth century and carried on the trade routes there were major outbreaks in California as late as 1924.
Since that time bubonic plague has declined across the globe for some reason. Nobody seems to know why.
Hopefully it won’t take 500 years this time.0 -
It may be that the vast majority of coronavirus deaths are people who would have died at some time within the next 12 months or so anyway of other conditions, and what's happening is that the numbers are being compressed into a shorter period of time. We'll know if that's true because there'll be less deaths than expected later on.Anabobazina said:
Yup. A similar chart was reported in the Sunday Times. Death rate down on the average in Q1. I believe it was you showing ‘normal’ pneumonia deaths falling off a cliff - of course many of those deaths are now being credited to Coronavirus. Sadly most of our journalists are innumerate and don’t grasp the concept of baselines (or don’t want to).isam said:FrancisUrquhart said:
What are you saying that people die of other stuff too? I never knew that :-)OldKingCole said:
Not even almost crap statistics. Looks as though ALL deaths are being reported. Would it not be sensible, when producing these graphs to have a baseline of, say, the daily deaths for March and April in 2019? That way we might have some real idea.FrancisUrquhart said:These ONS stats,
"The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease."
We know that of those admitted to hospital with very serious CV type symptoms and are tested, only about 33-40% actually turn out to be positive.
As you say, we need to see what the normal average daily deaths at this time of year, with variance intervals, and then plot them against this.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/quarterlymortalityreports/januarytomarch20191 -
It's not winning. And I'd prefer that something else doesn't get the chance to sneak up behind us while Patel is going overkill on the immediate threat in front of her.edmundintokyo said:
The enemy is 4KB in size, you can print it on a page of A4. It's not winning because it's smarter than us, it's winning because it's faster than us.Anabobazina said:
Hard to see how having a PM who is obviously stupid is “what we need”.edmundintokyo said:
I think she might actually be OK for the current situation, she's dumb as fuck but she hates freedom and she probably has a self-image of being bold and decisive like Thatcher. Generally speaking someone like that should be kept as far away from power as possible but in this case it might be what we need.rottenborough said:
Somebody save us from Patel!!!!!edmundintokyo said:
I think you may be at the wrong website?FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus F##king Christ, Fat Head is now speculating on a mechanisms and timing of a Tory party leadership election...
PS I could also mentoned that she's corrupt af, but I'm prepared to put up with a certain amount of stealing in return for making decisions before it's too late.0
