Well, that's a misleading way of writing it. On some recent bars, deaths dated for that date are maybe 80% higher than the deaths reported on that day, but the way of writing makes it sounds like 80% of deaths are missing on the reported day (rather than more like 40%)
I think the bigger takeaway is the 1600 or so deaths on March 27.
The consensus on here is that the MSM news coverage has been poor (to say the least) and I admit to several bouts of apoplexy. This has serious implications doesn't it? They are supposed to be the bulwark against fake news and the waves of social media hysteria and misinformation.
Problem is, as was amply illustrated by the venerable @Chris and his garbled rantings yesterday, no one has a fucking clue.
There is no "truth" that can be discerned this minute. Hence politicians in conjunction with experts make a call and the media make a call on those calls.
There is no 500 page document describing, if only people could be bothered to read it, what the actual situation is. Just data-driven analysis, judgement calls, and then supposition and speculation (all imperfect to varying degrees).
No, eternal vigilanteism against leftism is essential. Hmmmmm, silk or hemp?
Ah there you are. We need to return at some point to that "minorities grid" you were trying to explain to me yesterday. I was getting the drift but no more. Certainly not enough to judge whether you were highlighting something serious and reprehensible and widespread or alternatively had a bee in your bonnet over nothing much. In any case, an unsatisfactory outcome, I don't like loose ends.
Spain has suffered a setback in its fight against coronavirus as the country's daily death toll increased - putting an end to four straight days of decline.
The country reported 743 deaths on Tuesday, up from the 637 reported Monday and 674 on Sunday.
@TGOHF666 your party political partisanship is not needed, helpful, or welcome at this time. Give it a rest.
Eternal vigilance against leftism is essential - even in these dark times.
None of us on the left are remotely interested in right-left or remain-brexit memes.
.
She says minutes after posting a link to a Guardian attack piece falsely representing the Conservative governments policy.
Which is fine - but don't expect us not to laugh at the hypocrisy.
Wow, pot kettle black. It's not the Conservative governments (sic) policy. It may have been presented as policy previously (contentious) but most certainly isn't now. Which was the point of the article.
What is it with you right-wing headbangers that you can't just drop partisan party politics? It's so unbecoming of you, your party and this nation right now.
We're all rooting for Boris. Get with it.
“ What is it with you right-wing headbangers that you can't just drop partisan party politics?”
Spain has suffered a setback in its fight against coronavirus as the country's daily death toll increased - putting an end to four straight days of decline.
The country reported 743 deaths on Tuesday, up from the 637 reported Monday and 674 on Sunday.
It has no more suffered a setback than it did a relief when a few days numbers declined.
As someone (on here in fact) put it so well some time ago. The majority of this is just people drawing a line through several data points. We are a long way from being able to discern a trend.
Spain has suffered a setback in its fight against coronavirus as the country's daily death toll increased - putting an end to four straight days of decline.
The country reported 743 deaths on Tuesday, up from the 637 reported Monday and 674 on Sunday.
It has no more suffered a setback than it did a relief when a few days numbers declined.
As someone (on here in fact) put it so well some time ago. The majority of this is just people drawing a line through several data points. We are a long way from being able to discern a trend.
Absolutely. Some of the trend "fits" are just nonsense, as are the death charts that don't account for things like population difference.
@TGOHF666 your party political partisanship is not needed, helpful, or welcome at this time. Give it a rest.
+1 x 10,000,000
As per my message. Well said.
I thought you were writing a novel
Whilst running a marathon - on a treadmill etc.
I'm assuming it will be an autobiography to be filed under fiction.
You really are an utter prick aren't you. I won't even bother with the ?
I'm a bestselling author but I keep my cards just a little closer to my chest than my new-found friend Sean. I mean Tom. I mean Eadric. I could post up my links and my pen-name but you're not worth it. (You I mean, not the rest of pb.com who are gracious and intelligent and sensible for the most part.)
Back to it.
Deep respect. I can write short stories, novellas and I've even had some published, but only on a very limited scale.
Under s24 IHTA 1984 gifts to political parties are exempt from IHT if at the most recent General Election either 2 MPs were elected for that party, or 1 MP and not less than 150,000 votes for candidates for that party.
As UKIP had no elected MPs in the 2010 general election it did not meet the conditions in s24.
Aaron Banks was claiming that s24 discriminated against his political rights under the European Convention of Human Rights and therefore his gifts (via his personal company) to UKIP should be IHT exempt.
The tribunal held that s24 was not discriminatory, so Aaron Banks lost.
Gifts to UKIP during the 2015 parliament would have qualified.
900 was 1600 but the Government cant really count deaths as CV related until recorded as such so I think the lag is more 1.4 rather than 1.8 if we just want to add XV deaths at home.
"The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease."
We know that of those admitted to hospital with very serious CV type symptoms and are tested, only about 33-40% actually turn out to be positive.
900 was 1600 but the Government cant really count deaths as CV related until recorded as such so I think the lag is more 1.4 rather than 1.8 if we just want to add CV deaths at home.
Just looking at the graphs (and his other tweets), the red lines are about half the size of the other line so you could say that the reported rate is 50% of the actual or that the actual is 100% bigger than the reported. I know which makes the better headline.....
We all should know by now that information from different sources, collected in different ways will vary in absolute terms but hopefully show the same trends as each other.
No, eternal vigilanteism against leftism is essential. Hmmmmm, silk or hemp?
Ah there you are. We need to return at some point to that "minorities grid" you were trying to explain to me yesterday. I was getting the drift but no more. Certainly not enough to judge whether you were highlighting something serious and reprehensible and widespread or alternatively had a bee in your bonnet over nothing much. In any case, an unsatisfactory outcome, I don't like loose ends.
I was attempting gallows humour.
Which is also my view of the spectacle of "grid" style social engineering. Each time it produces a stupid result the morons try and correct it. Not realising the goal itself is the stupid bit.
Segmenting the population into a series of groups that you treat/punish differently - and then wonder why society seems to be becoming more fragmented.
we could of course try treating people as equally valuable human beings, bound by the same rules and owed the same respect. But I'm told that's bad....
I do wonder about who is advising them, although perhaps they aren't taking any notice. I can't believe any PR expert would be suggesting this is a good idea at the moment.
Spain has suffered a setback in its fight against coronavirus as the country's daily death toll increased - putting an end to four straight days of decline.
The country reported 743 deaths on Tuesday, up from the 637 reported Monday and 674 on Sunday.
When tides go out, waves still come in. They just go little further out each time.
Meanwhile in the UK, despite over 500 recorded Covid deaths in the week of the 27th, more people died from respiratory issues every single week in Jan and Feb than in that week inclusive of Covid. Suspect this is the last week of data we'll be able to say that for, but nevertheless still worthwhile context
The consensus on here is that the MSM news coverage has been poor (to say the least) and I admit to several bouts of apoplexy. This has serious implications doesn't it? They are supposed to be the bulwark against fake news and the waves of social media hysteria and misinformation.
I keep hoping as this moved from could be serious, to is serious, to f##k this is WWIII levels serious, they might drop all the usual crap, but if anything they have got worse.
We have the head of government in ICU and they are still acting like they are reporting on somebody tweeting something inappropriate or been spotted in Waitrose when they said they only shop in Morrisons.
Yes, plus the constant inability to deal with scientific or numerate issues.
Assuming (and hoping) that Johnson survives and fights the next election, it's going to be damn near impossible for Starmer to lead with the usual "who loves the NHS more" line.
We might not have an economy left to pay for the NHS if we don't take a balanced approach to lifting the lockdown.
Certainly we can't afford a Labour government for at least another decade.
over verbose. the last 5 words are not required.
You think it is possible for them to spend (and commit to spend) more than this govt? You may not have noticed, but the current officeholders are hosing money all over the place and even pre-lockdown, Boris was being accused of implementing Corbyn/McDonnell's policies
University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust
Job Reference: 387-TS-4186-KM
Employer:University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation TrustDepartment:Diversity and InclusionLocation:Trust Headquarters, BristolSalary:£44,606 - £50,819 pa
There really has never been a more exciting time to join us; University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust and Weston Area Health NHS Trust joined together as one organisation on 1st April 2020.
Our newly merged Trust has a combined workforce of over 13,000 staff, aiming to deliver exceptional local services for local people and specialist services across the South West and beyond. Together, we form one of the largest NHS trusts in the country.
Diversity and Inclusion Manager - AFC Band 8a (pending matching)
Full time 37.5 hours per week
Are you looking for a new challenge?
An exciting opportunity has arisen for a high performing and dynamic individual to join us in developing and delivering a key programme of work to drive the Trust's ambition and vision of being committed to inclusion in everything we do.
In line with the Workforce Diversity and Inclusion Strategy, the post holder will develop, lead on and evaluate a programme of work integral to the organisational development plan, focusing in particular on diversity and inclusion. The post holder will ensure the programme is delivered in accordance with the Trust’s Strategy, Vision, Values and desired culture to ensure that the Trust is equipped to provide a world class patient experience and a great place to work for its staff.
Interview Date: 29th April 2020
Why on earth do they have a specific job for this? We just have a few managers put on a task force for a couple of hours a month, and they get input from everyone. Seems to work just fine
I can understand a jury coming to a different view to judges. That makes sense to me. But I can't really understand how a lower court finds one thing, and then a higher court unanimously finds the opposite?
I have no knowledge of the Australian legal system. It just seems very strange to a complete layperson, and not a little discomforting, to think that it is apparently so arbitrary whether you are guilty or not?
If the lower court judges are wrong, should there be some consequence for them? Are there consequences for judges who frequently make the 'wrong' decision?
I don't understand how the following sentence is compatible with the system of trial by jury, at all: The jury, acting rationally on the whole of the evidence, ought to have entertained a doubt as to the applicant's guilt.
If judges can assess questions like that, what is the point of the jury system in the first place?
On a separate note, the Supreme Court's ruling that the proroguing of Parliament last year was unlawful was also unanimous. At the time, I found it bizarre that they could all agree on something when the High Court had already found the opposite.
In the UK this appeal would not have been allowed as there was, as I understand it, no new evidence and you can't appeal on the basis that the jury's verdict was perverse, no matter how clear it is that the jury has ignored the evidence. In Australia it is possible to appeal on the basis that the jury's verdict was unreasonable.
The difference between the lower court and the higher court in this case was essentially one of approach. The lower court took the view that the "opportunity evidence" (which was unchallenged and was inconsistent with the prosecution case) left open the possibility that the prosecution may have been correct. The higher court took the view that the lower court had failed to consider whether the evidence (which essentially showed that there had not been any opportunity for Pell to commit the offences) meant there was a reasonable possibility that the offences had not taken place.
As for the lower court finding one thing and then a higher court unanimously disagreeing, if that couldn't happen the higher courts would serve no purpose. And note that, in this case, there was a dissenting judge in the lower court. So the higher court has agreed with the dissenting judge.
Spain has suffered a setback in its fight against coronavirus as the country's daily death toll increased - putting an end to four straight days of decline.
The country reported 743 deaths on Tuesday, up from the 637 reported Monday and 674 on Sunday.
When tides go out, waves still come in. They just go little further out each time.
Its weekend syndrome..every weekends reporting numbers from around the globe but especially in Europe are low and then they bounce back on Tuesday and Wednesday. Todays UK figures will be nasty because of that.
"The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease."
We know that of those admitted to hospital with very serious CV type symptoms and are tested, only about 33-40% actually turn out to be positive.
Also have to suspect that as testing is ramped up the +ve % may fall a bit too.
Meanwhile in the UK, despite over 500 recorded Covid deaths in the week of the 27th, more people died from respiratory issues every single week in Jan and Feb than in that week inclusive of Covid. Suspect this is the last week of data we'll be able to say that for, but nevertheless still worthwhile context
Again its that consequence of underreporting over the weekend..will average out over next two days.. Trouble is the 24hr news cycle doesn't allow for that.
Spain has suffered a setback in its fight against coronavirus as the country's daily death toll increased - putting an end to four straight days of decline.
The country reported 743 deaths on Tuesday, up from the 637 reported Monday and 674 on Sunday.
It has no more suffered a setback than it did a relief when a few days numbers declined.
As someone (on here in fact) put it so well some time ago. The majority of this is just people drawing a line through several data points. We are a long way from being able to discern a trend.
Indeed - I keep posting that here in Spain the best interpretation is that we are now in the flattened curve stage. A form of significant lockdown beyond the current April 26th is all but certain. There is unlikely to be any kind of tourist summer for the Costas. Most locals here are very keen to keep the second homers away for the forseeable future. I think the idea of foreigners travelling much before September is also for the birds. I do think more 'normal' work will resume in May in those industries where the amount of social contact is minimal or can easily be controlled. We are in a long, slow marathon. The UK is about 2 weeks behind us - as are many other European countries. The relaxations announced today in Austria and Denmark are I think very dangerous.
Assuming (and hoping) that Johnson survives and fights the next election, it's going to be damn near impossible for Starmer to lead with the usual "who loves the NHS more" line.
We might not have an economy left to pay for the NHS if we don't take a balanced approach to lifting the lockdown.
Certainly we can't afford a Labour government for at least another decade.
over verbose. the last 5 words are not required.
You think it is possible for them to spend (and commit to spend) more than this govt? You may not have noticed, but the current officeholders are hosing money all over the place and even pre-lockdown, Boris was being accused of implementing Corbyn/McDonnell's policies
University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust
Job Reference: 387-TS-4186-KM
Employer:University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation TrustDepartment:Diversity and InclusionLocation:Trust Headquarters, BristolSalary:£44,606 - £50,819 pa
There really has never been a more exciting time to join us; University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust and Weston Area Health NHS Trust joined together as one organisation on 1st April 2020.
Our newly merged Trust has a combined workforce of over 13,000 staff, aiming to deliver exceptional local services for local people and specialist services across the South West and beyond. Together, we form one of the largest NHS trusts in the country.
Diversity and Inclusion Manager - AFC Band 8a (pending matching)
Full time 37.5 hours per week
Are you looking for a new challenge?
An exciting opportunity has arisen for a high performing and dynamic individual to join us in developing and delivering a key programme of work to drive the Trust's ambition and vision of being committed to inclusion in everything we do.
In line with the Workforce Diversity and Inclusion Strategy, the post holder will develop, lead on and evaluate a programme of work integral to the organisational development plan, focusing in particular on diversity and inclusion. The post holder will ensure the programme is delivered in accordance with the Trust’s Strategy, Vision, Values and desired culture to ensure that the Trust is equipped to provide a world class patient experience and a great place to work for its staff.
Interview Date: 29th April 2020
Why on earth do they have a specific job for this? We just have a few managers put on a task force for a couple of hours a month, and they get input from everyone. Seems to work just fine
You obviously haven't encountered the modern large organisation jobsworths. You are fined 3 credits for a written violation of the Respect For Pointless Non Jobs Act 2019 (Amended)
"The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease."
We know that of those admitted to hospital with very serious CV type symptoms and are tested, only about 33-40% actually turn out to be positive.
Not even almost crap statistics. Looks as though ALL deaths are being reported. Would it not be sensible, when producing these graphs to have a baseline of, say, the daily deaths for March and April in 2019? That way we might have some real idea.
What I would like to see is the death rate per day. I believe ONS figures only go up to 22nd March.
1600 per day would suggest the overall death rate has doubled.
Those ONS figures are cumulative total deaths not daily death rates. At the end of March, the NHS figures were 200-300 deaths a day. Its only been in the last few days that we have been at 1000 deaths a day.
Under s24 IHTA 1984 gifts to political parties are exempt from IHT if at the most recent General Election either 2 MPs were elected for that party, or 1 MP and not less than 150,000 votes for candidates for that party.
As UKIP had no elected MPs in the 2010 general election it did not meet the conditions in s24.
Aaron Banks was claiming that s24 discriminated against his political rights under the European Convention of Human Rights and therefore his gifts (via his personal company) to UKIP should be IHT exempt.
The tribunal held that s24 was not discriminatory, so Aaron Banks lost.
Gifts to UKIP during the 2015 parliament would have qualified.
I'm no fan of Banks or UKIP but I think he is morally right.
UKIP were a bona fide political party whether you like them or not with political aims even when they had no MPs, as were the Greens when they had no MPs.
I do wonder about who is advising them, although perhaps they aren't taking any notice. I can't believe any PR expert would be suggesting this is a good idea at the moment.
And that name is Consignia level bad. Unpronounceable and overtones of arch, hell and chew (18th century synonym for a blowjob according to William Golding).
"The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease."
We know that of those admitted to hospital with very serious CV type symptoms and are tested, only about 33-40% actually turn out to be positive.
Not even almost crap statistics. Looks as though ALL deaths are being reported. Would it not be sensible, when producing these graphs to have a baseline of, say, the daily deaths for March and April in 2019? That way we might have some real idea.
What are you saying that people die of other stuff too? I never knew that :-)
As you say, we need to see what the normal average daily deaths at this time of year, with variance intervals, and then plot them against this.
Jesus F##king Christ, Fat Head is now speculating on a mechanisms and timing of a Tory party leadership election...
I think you may be at the wrong website?
Somebody save us from Patel!!!!!
I think she might actually be OK for the current situation, she's dumb as fuck but she hates freedom and she probably has a self-image of being bold and decisive like Thatcher. Generally speaking someone like that should be kept as far away from power as possible but in this case it might be what we need.
I wonder if the 1600 deaths on the 27/3/2020 recorded as having something to do with Covid-19 were all actually tested as these would make up a very large proportion of the positive tests.
"The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease."
We know that of those admitted to hospital with very serious CV type symptoms and are tested, only about 33-40% actually turn out to be positive.
Not even almost crap statistics. Looks as though ALL deaths are being reported. Would it not be sensible, when producing these graphs to have a baseline of, say, the daily deaths for March and April in 2019? That way we might have some real idea.
The spreadsheet has just such a baseline in it. Up to the 27th March there is little sign of excess mortality overall, but would expect next week's figures to be the first time the number is large enough to show through (and it'll then be interesting to see the disconnect between the Covid number and the movement in the overall total)
I wonder if the 1600 deaths on the 27/3/2020 recorded as having something to do with Covid-19 were all actually tested as these would make up a very large proportion of the positive tests.
No, they've recorded them even if COVID is suspected - but we know most suspected tests are negative, so quite possibly many of those were not COVID deaths.
No, eternal vigilanteism against leftism is essential. Hmmmmm, silk or hemp?
Ah there you are. We need to return at some point to that "minorities grid" you were trying to explain to me yesterday. I was getting the drift but no more. Certainly not enough to judge whether you were highlighting something serious and reprehensible and widespread or alternatively had a bee in your bonnet over nothing much. In any case, an unsatisfactory outcome, I don't like loose ends.
I wonder if the 1600 deaths on the 27/3/2020 recorded as having something to do with Covid-19 were all actually tested as these would make up a very large proportion of the positive tests.
I think the testing numbers on that cohort would be low.
I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
I wonder if the 1600 deaths on the 27/3/2020 recorded as having something to do with Covid-19 were all actually tested as these would make up a very large proportion of the positive tests.
Though rarely would the test be on the day that they died, usually that would be done a week or so earlier, when they were admitted.
This twitter thread gives a bit more detail, of the level of deaths over expected.
I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
Total respiratory deaths are flat week on week, despite there being an extra 440 Covid deaths included in that category.
We are going to have to wait until the bigger numbers next week to confirm, but there does appear to be some crowding out going on.
No, eternal vigilanteism against leftism is essential. Hmmmmm, silk or hemp?
Ah there you are. We need to return at some point to that "minorities grid" you were trying to explain to me yesterday. I was getting the drift but no more. Certainly not enough to judge whether you were highlighting something serious and reprehensible and widespread or alternatively had a bee in your bonnet over nothing much. In any case, an unsatisfactory outcome, I don't like loose ends.
Yes, I didn’t understand that either.
I was pointing out example of how identity politics when confronted with the complexity of modern society produce ever more farcical results. This is not just ridiculous - it produces positive harm.
For example in the infamous Baby P case, the social worker who was annoying people by suggesting that the baby was being brutally mistreated was under investigation. To the point that her bosses energy was focused entirely on that.
I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
I dont think that correct, from the ONS tweet that I cited.
"The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease."
We know that of those admitted to hospital with very serious CV type symptoms and are tested, only about 33-40% actually turn out to be positive.
Not even almost crap statistics. Looks as though ALL deaths are being reported. Would it not be sensible, when producing these graphs to have a baseline of, say, the daily deaths for March and April in 2019? That way we might have some real idea.
What are you saying that people die of other stuff too? I never knew that :-)
As you say, we need to see what the normal average daily deaths at this time of year, with variance intervals, and then plot them against this.
I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
Total respiratory deaths are flat week on week, despite there being an extra 440 Covid deaths included in that category.
We are going to have to wait until the bigger numbers next week to confirm, but there does appear to be some crowding out going on.
Sorry for being dense but what do you mean by crowding out?
Jesus F##king Christ, Fat Head is now speculating on a mechanisms and timing of a Tory party leadership election...
I think you may be at the wrong website?
Somebody save us from Patel!!!!!
I think she might actually be OK for the current situation, she's dumb as fuck but she hates freedom and she probably has a self-image of being bold and decisive like Thatcher. Generally speaking someone like that should be kept as far away from power as possible but in this case it might be what we need.
Hard to see how having a PM who is obviously stupid is “what we need”.
I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
Total respiratory deaths are flat week on week, despite there being an extra 440 Covid deaths included in that category.
We are going to have to wait until the bigger numbers next week to confirm, but there does appear to be some crowding out going on.
Sorry for being dense but what do you mean by crowding out?
Covid deaths > total change in deaths - i.e. Covid stepping in to take the 'credit' for a death which would have come from another recorded cause ordinarily
Have we heard anything from them about why they've suspended it? If it's because it's a market on him dying then you have to wonder what they think Biden's so far off a cert for the nomination. OTOH it might just be because there's a lot of potential for people to have inside information right now.
I haven't seen a reason given but I think it is because a bet on a 2020 exit has become almost a pure punt on him dying. With Biden, death is the mix but he is not lying in an ICU right now and there are other feasible ways in which he will not be the nominee.
I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
Total respiratory deaths are flat week on week, despite there being an extra 440 Covid deaths included in that category.
We are going to have to wait until the bigger numbers next week to confirm, but there does appear to be some crowding out going on.
Sorry for being dense but what do you mean by crowding out?
Covid deaths < total change in deaths - i.e. Covid stepping in to take the 'credit' for a death which would have come from another recorded cause ordinarily
"The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease."
We know that of those admitted to hospital with very serious CV type symptoms and are tested, only about 33-40% actually turn out to be positive.
Not even almost crap statistics. Looks as though ALL deaths are being reported. Would it not be sensible, when producing these graphs to have a baseline of, say, the daily deaths for March and April in 2019? That way we might have some real idea.
What are you saying that people die of other stuff too? I never knew that :-)
As you say, we need to see what the normal average daily deaths at this time of year, with variance intervals, and then plot them against this.
Yup. A similar chart was reported in the Sunday Times. Death rate down on the average in Q1. I believe it was you showing ‘normal’ pneumonia deaths falling off a cliff - of course many of those deaths are now being credited to Coronavirus. Sadly most of our journalists are innumerate and don’t grasp the concept of baselines (or don’t want to).
Wave 1 might have done... Unless it's 100% stabbed out (and it won't be) future waves are inevitable.
Evidence?
Well, it might be pointed out that the Black Death continued to come in waves in Europe for over 350 years, with the last major outbreak occurring in Marseilles in 1720.
Then there were significant outbreaks in Asia, particularly China, in the late nineteenth century and carried on the trade routes there were major outbreaks in California as late as 1924.
Since that time bubonic plague has declined across the globe for some reason. Nobody seems to know why.
I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
Total respiratory deaths are flat week on week, despite there being an extra 440 Covid deaths included in that category.
We are going to have to wait until the bigger numbers next week to confirm, but there does appear to be some crowding out going on.
Sorry for being dense but what do you mean by crowding out?
Covid deaths < total change in deaths - i.e. Covid stepping in to take the 'credit' for a death which would have come from another recorded cause ordinarily
Agreed 100%
Apart from I got the inequality the wrong way round!
Jesus F##king Christ, Fat Head is now speculating on a mechanisms and timing of a Tory party leadership election...
I think you may be at the wrong website?
Somebody save us from Patel!!!!!
I think she might actually be OK for the current situation, she's dumb as fuck but she hates freedom and she probably has a self-image of being bold and decisive like Thatcher. Generally speaking someone like that should be kept as far away from power as possible but in this case it might be what we need.
Hard to see how having a PM who is obviously stupid is “what we need”.
The enemy is 4KB in size, you can print it on a page of A4. It's not winning because it's smarter than us, it's winning because it's faster than us.
PS I could also mentoned that she's corrupt af, but I'm prepared to put up with a certain amount of stealing in return for making decisions before it's too late.
I can understand a jury coming to a different view to judges. That makes sense to me. But I can't really understand how a lower court finds one thing, and then a higher court unanimously finds the opposite?
I have no knowledge of the Australian legal system. It just seems very strange to a complete layperson, and not a little discomforting, to think that it is apparently so arbitrary whether you are guilty or not?
If the lower court judges are wrong, should there be some consequence for them? Are there consequences for judges who frequently make the 'wrong' decision?
I don't understand how the following sentence is compatible with the system of trial by jury, at all: The jury, acting rationally on the whole of the evidence, ought to have entertained a doubt as to the applicant's guilt.
If judges can assess questions like that, what is the point of the jury system in the first place?
On a separate note, the Supreme Court's ruling that the proroguing of Parliament last year was unlawful was also unanimous. At the time, I found it bizarre that they could all agree on something when the High Court had already found the opposite.
In the UK this appeal would not have been allowed as there was, as I understand it, no new evidence and you can't appeal on the basis that the jury's verdict was perverse, no matter how clear it is that the jury has ignored the evidence. In Australia it is possible to appeal on the basis that the jury's verdict was unreasonable.
The difference between the lower court and the higher court in this case was essentially one of approach. The lower court took the view that the "opportunity evidence" (which was unchallenged and was inconsistent with the prosecution case) left open the possibility that the prosecution may have been correct. The higher court took the view that the lower court had failed to consider whether the evidence (which essentially showed that there had not been any opportunity for Pell to commit the offences) meant there was a reasonable possibility that the offences had not taken place.
As for the lower court finding one thing and then a higher court unanimously disagreeing, if that couldn't happen the higher courts would serve no purpose. And note that, in this case, there was a dissenting judge in the lower court. So the higher court has agreed with the dissenting judge.
In England you can appeal on the basis that the verdict is 'unsafe' and it is possible to argue that the weight and quality of the evidence of innocence is such that the jury erred in convicting. This isn't common, mostly because it is a rare occurrence.
I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
Total respiratory deaths are flat week on week, despite there being an extra 440 Covid deaths included in that category.
We are going to have to wait until the bigger numbers next week to confirm, but there does appear to be some crowding out going on.
Sorry for being dense but what do you mean by crowding out?
Covid deaths < total change in deaths - i.e. Covid stepping in to take the 'credit' for a death which would have come from another recorded cause ordinarily
Agreed 100%
Apart from I got the inequality the wrong way round!
LOL yes I overlooked that. Agreed in your conclusion.
I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
I dont think that correct, from the ONS tweet that I cited.
Anyway asthma related deaths in cities must be down massively.
I do wonder about who is advising them, although perhaps they aren't taking any notice. I can't believe any PR expert would be suggesting this is a good idea at the moment.
And that name is Consignia level bad. Unpronounceable and overtones of arch, hell and chew (18th century synonym for a blowjob according to William Golding).
That middle "e" is going to irritate me every time I see it. Which won't be that often, I hope.
I might be reading the raw data wrong, as bit busy, but total deaths, total death with respiratory conditions etc, don't look much different to previous years.
I dont think that correct, from the ONS tweet that I cited.
Total deaths rose up 1k higher than prior year average, but that isn't being driven by respiratory deaths by the looks of things. And a 1k variation against the 5 year average is not far off par for the course this year at least. Currently running just under 4k better off that the average on a YTD basis
Wave 1 might have done... Unless it's 100% stabbed out (and it won't be) future waves are inevitable.
Evidence?
Well, it might be pointed out that the Black Death continued to come in waves in Europe for over 350 years, with the last major outbreak occurring in Marseilles in 1720.
Then there were significant outbreaks in Asia, particularly China, in the late nineteenth century and carried on the trade routes there were major outbreaks in California as late as 1924.
Since that time bubonic plague has declined across the globe for some reason. Nobody seems to know why.
Wave 1 might have done... Unless it's 100% stabbed out (and it won't be) future waves are inevitable.
Evidence?
Well, it might be pointed out that the Black Death continued to come in waves in Europe for over 350 years, with the last major outbreak occurring in Marseilles in 1720.
Then there were significant outbreaks in Asia, particularly China, in the late nineteenth century and carried on the trade routes there were major outbreaks in California as late as 1924.
Since that time bubonic plague has declined across the globe for some reason. Nobody seems to know why.
Hopefully it won’t take 500 years this time.
That’s not evidence, next.
Yes it is. The only disease I can think of that has been completely stamped out is smallpox and that only after mass vaccinations.
"The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease."
We know that of those admitted to hospital with very serious CV type symptoms and are tested, only about 33-40% actually turn out to be positive.
Not even almost crap statistics. Looks as though ALL deaths are being reported. Would it not be sensible, when producing these graphs to have a baseline of, say, the daily deaths for March and April in 2019? That way we might have some real idea.
What are you saying that people die of other stuff too? I never knew that :-)
As you say, we need to see what the normal average daily deaths at this time of year, with variance intervals, and then plot them against this.
Yup. A similar chart was reported in the Sunday Times. Death rate down on the average in Q1. I believe it was you showing ‘normal’ pneumonia deaths falling off a cliff - of course many of those deaths are now being credited to Coronavirus. Sadly most of our journalists are innumerate and don’t grasp the concept of baselines (or don’t want to).
It may be that the vast majority of coronavirus deaths are people who would have died at some time within the next 12 months or so anyway of other conditions, and what's happening is that the numbers are being compressed into a shorter period of time. We'll know if that's true because there'll be less deaths than expected later on.
Jesus F##king Christ, Fat Head is now speculating on a mechanisms and timing of a Tory party leadership election...
I think you may be at the wrong website?
Somebody save us from Patel!!!!!
I think she might actually be OK for the current situation, she's dumb as fuck but she hates freedom and she probably has a self-image of being bold and decisive like Thatcher. Generally speaking someone like that should be kept as far away from power as possible but in this case it might be what we need.
Hard to see how having a PM who is obviously stupid is “what we need”.
The enemy is 4KB in size, you can print it on a page of A4. It's not winning because it's smarter than us, it's winning because it's faster than us.
PS I could also mentoned that she's corrupt af, but I'm prepared to put up with a certain amount of stealing in return for making decisions before it's too late.
It's not winning. And I'd prefer that something else doesn't get the chance to sneak up behind us while Patel is going overkill on the immediate threat in front of her.
Comments
The latter implies that 4/5 were not reported.
Journalists eh
There is no "truth" that can be discerned this minute. Hence politicians in conjunction with experts make a call and the media make a call on those calls.
There is no 500 page document describing, if only people could be bothered to read it, what the actual situation is. Just data-driven analysis, judgement calls, and then supposition and speculation (all imperfect to varying degrees).
The country reported 743 deaths on Tuesday, up from the 637 reported Monday and 674 on Sunday.
It comes across to me as rather pathetic.
That’s a great line
As someone (on here in fact) put it so well some time ago. The majority of this is just people drawing a line through several data points. We are a long way from being able to discern a trend.
https://epidemio.wiv-isp.be/ID/Documents/Covid19/Meest recente update.pdf
I came to the conclusion that it would be easier to choose a new PM and let the Tory leadership vacancy last until the end of the Covid-19 crisis.
"The figure includes deaths outside hospitals, including those in homes and care homes, and includes patients who have not tested positive for the virus but are suspected of having the disease."
We know that of those admitted to hospital with very serious CV type symptoms and are tested, only about 33-40% actually turn out to be positive.
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1247460661145350151?s=20
Just looking at the graphs (and his other tweets), the red lines are about half the size of the other line so you could say that the reported rate is 50% of the actual or that the actual is 100% bigger than the reported. I know which makes the better headline.....
We all should know by now that information from different sources, collected in different ways will vary in absolute terms but hopefully show the same trends as each other.
Which is also my view of the spectacle of "grid" style social engineering. Each time it produces a stupid result the morons try and correct it. Not realising the goal itself is the stupid bit.
Segmenting the population into a series of groups that you treat/punish differently - and then wonder why society seems to be becoming more fragmented.
we could of course try treating people as equally valuable human beings, bound by the same rules and owed the same respect. But I'm told that's bad....
Meanwhile in the UK, despite over 500 recorded Covid deaths in the week of the 27th, more people died from respiratory issues every single week in Jan and Feb than in that week inclusive of Covid. Suspect this is the last week of data we'll be able to say that for, but nevertheless still worthwhile context
That's France, Spain, Germany, Belgium, Japan are recording "worse" numbers.
I think those talking about lifting the lockdown and his will be done and dusted in a few weeks from now are deluded.
1600 per day would suggest the overall death rate has doubled.
The difference between the lower court and the higher court in this case was essentially one of approach. The lower court took the view that the "opportunity evidence" (which was unchallenged and was inconsistent with the prosecution case) left open the possibility that the prosecution may have been correct. The higher court took the view that the lower court had failed to consider whether the evidence (which essentially showed that there had not been any opportunity for Pell to commit the offences) meant there was a reasonable possibility that the offences had not taken place.
As for the lower court finding one thing and then a higher court unanimously disagreeing, if that couldn't happen the higher courts would serve no purpose. And note that, in this case, there was a dissenting judge in the lower court. So the higher court has agreed with the dissenting judge.
Trouble is the 24hr news cycle doesn't allow for that.
For some people https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0106697/ depicts the ideal society which they wish to create.
UKIP were a bona fide political party whether you like them or not with political aims even when they had no MPs, as were the Greens when they had no MPs.
As you say, we need to see what the normal average daily deaths at this time of year, with variance intervals, and then plot them against this.
https://twitter.com/ianssmart/status/1247283973820121094
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
That's a disgusting comment.
This twitter thread gives a bit more detail, of the level of deaths over expected.
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1247443057324306432?s=19
We are going to have to wait until the bigger numbers next week to confirm, but there does appear to be some crowding out going on.
For example in the infamous Baby P case, the social worker who was annoying people by suggesting that the baby was being brutally mistreated was under investigation. To the point that her bosses energy was focused entirely on that.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/quarterlymortalityreports/januarytomarch2019
Then there were significant outbreaks in Asia, particularly China, in the late nineteenth century and carried on the trade routes there were major outbreaks in California as late as 1924.
Since that time bubonic plague has declined across the globe for some reason. Nobody seems to know why.
Hopefully it won’t take 500 years this time.
PS I could also mentoned that she's corrupt af, but I'm prepared to put up with a certain amount of stealing in return for making decisions before it's too late.