politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » That Boris could be so afflicted brings home in a powerful way

OldKingCole said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OldKingCole said:

IanB2 said:

Mysticrose said:

IanB2 said:

On the point in the lead about his cycling and by inference his fitness, the Daily Mail article linked from last thread suggested that the jogging and cycling fitness regime he used to follow is now a thing of the past.

Yes the idea that he is very fit appears to be nonsense, unfortunately. He may very strong but that's not the same thing.

I have noticed with others that a drawback of being a fitness enthusiast in middle age is that if ever you give it up everything tends to go pow.

Morning everyone. Giving up work was what triggered health problems for me.

I was running almost every day when this broke out.Took half a week off over this weekend, have just gone out for a 5k that quickly got caped at 3k. If nothing else I think good walks are needed when not running. At least for me. With my age/build/lifestyle...

I've gone from an hour at the gym two or three times a week to (almost) an hour's walk most days. I'm lucky, though, that we live in a small town and there are plenty of places where my wife and I can go for a walk and either not meet people, or be able to give them a wide berth.
I feel very sorry indeed for people in flats or terraces, especially if they have children.
And I feel very, very sorry for the 14-20 age group who should be developing their social relationships.

Chris said:

Scott_xP said:

IanB2 said:

On the point in the lead about his cycling and by inference his fitness, the Daily Mail article linked from last thread suggested that the jogging and cycling fitness regime he used to follow is now a thing of the past.

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1247403701662334981

I really can't see how this kind of stuff helps. Better to prepare people for the possibility of a bad outcome.

Theuniondivvie said:

Mysticrose said:

Right I'd best get writing. Another chapter of my novel beckons.

Is there an expression that conveys the opposite impression of 'must read'?

MarqueeMark said:

Mysticrose said:

My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.

And cyclists.

nico67 said:

I see the denial continues amongst the government over the trade negotiations with the EU,

When will this charade come to an end .

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:

SandraMc said:

Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.

The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.

Why do so many cyclists do this?

I assume he was a MAMIL?

Yup. Neon lycra at that.

Theuniondivvie said:

Mysticrose said:

Right I'd best get writing. Another chapter of my novel beckons.

Is there an expression that conveys the opposite impression of 'must read'?

Mysticrose said:

Casino_Royale said:

Mysticrose said:

noneoftheabove said:

Mysticrose said:

IanB2 said:

Mysticrose said:

Black_Rook said:

If the Prime Minister's situation does any good at all it will hopefully be to remind people that they aren't invulnerable and should conform with the messages that the Government has been putting out over recent weeks.

I agree but I don't like the social media vigilantism, often ill-informed and rushing to judgement.

It's vital to remember that getting outside once a day for exercise is extremely important for physical and mental wellbeing. I do just wish this country weren't lagging so very far behind on the wearing of masks. They should be mandatory in public places during this lockdown.

I am still not sure. I saw some guy fiddling with his mask yesterday, and those relatively few mask wearers I have seen around here (particularly the older ones) always seem to be adjusting it. Wearing a mask probably makes you more cavalier about touching stuff as well. If you are going to carry everything you have touched around on a face mask all day you certainly aren’t helping yourself.

Just completely untrue. It does the opposite with me. It reminds me that everything outside my door, and indeed everything that comes through, is a potential virus vector.

I never touch my mask and I carry anti-bacterials everywhere.

We are hopelessly behind the curve on this. They are absolutely 100%, clearly, a preventative for viral spreading, both from those who have it and those who don't. All Asian countries have known this for years but we are pathetically clinging to the last vestiges of 'we know best.' We don't.

Far far far more important than a message to stay indoors should be, 'wear a bloody mask.'

Absolute nonsense
/

With respect I have been completely right about this virus all the way along, from the very start, and I'm right about masks. Everyone is falling into line. You will too. Eventually, though, in your case by the looks of it.

I've been hot onto this for years but that's probably because I spent 10 years living and working in Asia.

It's interesting as to why you and @eadric are so obsessed with being right.

Visionaries find idiots frustrating.

Just being honest.

I was on a leadership team a while back and we all took the usual temperament tests, Myers-Briggs and all that (cue someone to post an article by Nate Silver explaining why they are unreliable).

It was actually really useful to see that us strongly N types (Intuitives) do need the 'Computer-says-Nooooooo' types to keep us in check.

Visionaries like me can be a pain in the arse.

Even though we're right.

TGOHF666 said:

Ozzie Telegraph responds to angry letter from Chinese consulate.

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/tim-blair/via-local-commie-underlings-beijing-officially-disapproves/news-story/491b415795fbbdc526d33d5b569134a4

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Mysticrose said:

IanB2 said:

On the point in the lead about his cycling and by inference his fitness, the Daily Mail article linked from last thread suggested that the jogging and cycling fitness regime he used to follow is now a thing of the past.

Yes the idea that he is very fit appears to be nonsense, unfortunately. He may very strong but that's not the same thing.

I have noticed with others that a drawback of being a fitness enthusiast in middle age is that if ever you give it up everything tends to go pow.

So I'm ok, having never started.

That was always my theory. The best theories are the convenient ones.

Fortunately after a middle age of indolence, I got a dog and started walking a lot more. Which has done wonders in late middle age, even though I do have some weight to lose (being in the apparently safest slightly overweight category).

nico67 said:

I see the denial continues amongst the government over the trade negotiations with the EU,

When will this charade come to an end .

MarqueeMark said:

Martin_Kinsella said:

MarqueeMark said:

Mysticrose said:

My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.

And cyclists.

And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.

I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.

No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.

Richard_Tyndall said:

StuartDickson said:

Mysticrose said:

One thing that has worried me for some time is that Boris is very overweight: clinically obese with a BMI somewhere around 33 by most reckoning. That seems to be a factor in mortality, especially as he doesn't regularly exercise. I'm guessing he drinks a lot - well not just guessing. I heard somewhere that he has quite high blood pressure. That doesn't help either.

According to the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre the survival chance of a man his age is 54% without the aforementioned points.

So if any of that is accurate, and I don't know for certain that it is, it indicates just how grim this is and that those headlines suggesting that Boris is 'fighting for his life' are about right.

This is all pretty devastating news. And many of us have a creeping sense of dread.

Get well Boris. Pull through. We are all rooting for you.


(Source for some of the above is today's D. Telegraph)

Dr Foxy posted a very good link last week to critical care outcomes in England. The table showed that BMI is a huge determinant of whether you ever come out of intensive care. The clinically obese (BMI over 30) are much more likely to succumb. Oddly, the overweight (BMI 25-30) were slightly more likely to survive than normal-weight or underweight individuals.

The PM almost certainly has a BMI over 30. Perhaps over 35. Not good.

And according to the medical stats expert on BBC Radio Scotland an hour ago, males in their 50s are 3 times (three times) more likely to die than females in their 50s. Not at all good.

Heavy alcohol consumption makes you a sitting duck for a vast range of diseases and afflictions, including Covid19.

I’m a bit younger than the PM and have a lower BMI. I assume I drink less alcohol than him too. And I’m scared. Every man over 40 with a poor track-record at the gym should be scared shitless.

Yep I must admit I am worried. I am 54 with a BMI over 30. Until now I had considered myself to be low risk but had been following all the Government guidelines carefully to protect (I thought) other people. Trouble is I am now responsible for 100 or so houses in the village who can call on me to do shopping etc for them when all I really want to do now is batten down the hatches and sit this one out.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Mysticrose said:

Right I'd best get writing. Another chapter of my novel beckons.

Is there an expression that conveys the opposite impression of 'must read'?

Unpickupable!

Morning all. Hopeful that Bojo has made it through his first night in ICU and we'll hear good news at midday.

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OldKingCole said:

IanB2 said:

Mysticrose said:

IanB2 said:

On the point in the lead about his cycling and by inference his fitness, the Daily Mail article linked from last thread suggested that the jogging and cycling fitness regime he used to follow is now a thing of the past.

Yes the idea that he is very fit appears to be nonsense, unfortunately. He may very strong but that's not the same thing.

I have noticed with others that a drawback of being a fitness enthusiast in middle age is that if ever you give it up everything tends to go pow.

Morning everyone. Giving up work was what triggered health problems for me.

I was running almost every day when this broke out.Took half a week off over this weekend, have just gone out for a 5k that quickly got caped at 3k. If nothing else I think good walks are needed when not running. At least for me. With my age/build/lifestyle...

I've gone from an hour at the gym two or three times a week to (almost) an hour's walk most days. I'm lucky, though, that we live in a small town and there are plenty of places where my wife and I can go for a walk and either not meet people, or be able to give them a wide berth.
I feel very sorry indeed for people in flats or terraces, especially if they have children.
And I feel very, very sorry for the 14-20 age group who should be developing their social relationships.

I miss going for a drink after work with my colleagues. Social distancing can be quite a strain, even for us introverts.

A beautiful morning to have my porridge and tea in the garden, watching my cat stalking in the flower beds. I am fatalistic about this virus, and expect to catch it at some point, but it doesn't make me anxious, just more appreciative of the simple pleasures of life.

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Mysticrose said:

Right I'd best get writing. Another chapter of my novel beckons.

Is there an expression that conveys the opposite impression of 'must read'?

Unpickupable!

Morning all. Hopeful that Bojo has made it through his first night in ICU and we'll hear good news at midday.

Actually, I hope the lobby get told "The PM remains dangerously ill. You will have no further updates to feed rolling 24 hour news until either he is out of danger, or he dies. If you hear nothing more, he remains dangerously ill. And if anybody here - ANYBODY - asks another fucking thing about his health, you will lose your accreditation to the lobby. Understood?"

Malmesbury said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:

SandraMc said:

Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.

The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.

Why do so many cyclists do this?

I assume he was a MAMIL?

Yup. Neon lycra at that.

There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.

I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.

SouthamObserver said:

Having your first child should be a joyful, shared experience with your partner, family and friends. It must be so awful for Carrie Symonds, pretty much alone, sick with worry, recovering from illness herself. All best wishes to her.

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Mysticrose said:

Right I'd best get writing. Another chapter of my novel beckons.

Is there an expression that conveys the opposite impression of 'must read'?

Unpickupable!

Morning all. Hopeful that Bojo has made it through his first night in ICU and we'll hear good news at midday.

Actually, I hope the lobby get told "The PM remains dangerously ill. You will have no further updates to feed rolling 24 hour news until either he is out of danger, or he dies. If you hear nothing more, he remains dangerously ill. And if anybody here - ANYBODY - asks another fucking thing about his health, you will lose your accreditation to the lobby. Understood?"

eek said:

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Mysticrose said:

Right I'd best get writing. Another chapter of my novel beckons.

Is there an expression that conveys the opposite impression of 'must read'?

Unpickupable!

Morning all. Hopeful that Bojo has made it through his first night in ICU and we'll hear good news at midday.

Actually, I hope the lobby get told "The PM remains dangerously ill. You will have no further updates to feed rolling 24 hour news until either he is out of danger, or he dies. If you hear nothing more, he remains dangerously ill. And if anybody here - ANYBODY - asks another fucking thing about his health, you will lose your accreditation to the lobby. Understood?"

+1. Personally I would just create a law banning any channel from showing more than 1000 hours of news a year. 24 hours news is like a lot of things a creator of bigger problems than it solves.

noneoftheabove said:

Mysticrose said:

noneoftheabove said:

Mysticrose said:

IanB2 said:

Mysticrose said:

Black_Rook said:

If the Prime Minister's situation does any good at all it will hopefully be to remind people that they aren't invulnerable and should conform with the messages that the Government has been putting out over recent weeks.

I agree but I don't like the social media vigilantism, often ill-informed and rushing to judgement.

It's vital to remember that getting outside once a day for exercise is extremely important for physical and mental wellbeing. I do just wish this country weren't lagging so very far behind on the wearing of masks. They should be mandatory in public places during this lockdown.

I am still not sure. I saw some guy fiddling with his mask yesterday, and those relatively few mask wearers I have seen around here (particularly the older ones) always seem to be adjusting it. Wearing a mask probably makes you more cavalier about touching stuff as well. If you are going to carry everything you have touched around on a face mask all day you certainly aren’t helping yourself.

Just completely untrue. It does the opposite with me. It reminds me that everything outside my door, and indeed everything that comes through, is a potential virus vector.

I never touch my mask and I carry anti-bacterials everywhere.

We are hopelessly behind the curve on this. They are absolutely 100%, clearly, a preventative for viral spreading, both from those who have it and those who don't. All Asian countries have known this for years but we are pathetically clinging to the last vestiges of 'we know best.' We don't.

Far far far more important than a message to stay indoors should be, 'wear a bloody mask.'

Absolute nonsense
/

With respect I have been completely right about this virus all the way along, from the very start, and I'm right about masks. Everyone is falling into line. You will too. Eventually, though, in your case by the looks of it.

I've been hot onto this for years but that's probably because I spent 10 years living and working in Asia.

I agree the pressure to wear masks will win out in the end. Not because they help but because "something must be done".

Personally I'll listen to the science and the law, it is undecided at the moment. I am quite comfortable admitting I dont know the full science on masks because people who have studied relevant sciences all their life, in the best institutions also do not know. I really doubt people "know" just because they have lived in Asia.

noneoftheabove said:

eek said:

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Mysticrose said:

Right I'd best get writing. Another chapter of my novel beckons.

Is there an expression that conveys the opposite impression of 'must read'?

Unpickupable!

Morning all. Hopeful that Bojo has made it through his first night in ICU and we'll hear good news at midday.

Actually, I hope the lobby get told "The PM remains dangerously ill. You will have no further updates to feed rolling 24 hour news until either he is out of danger, or he dies. If you hear nothing more, he remains dangerously ill. And if anybody here - ANYBODY - asks another fucking thing about his health, you will lose your accreditation to the lobby. Understood?"

+1. Personally I would just create a law banning any channel from showing more than 1000 hours of news a year. 24 hours news is like a lot of things a creator of bigger problems than it solves.

BBC has a choice, and an obligation to be balanced. I know these are not the times for it but I think BBC should direct its news team to produce at least a third good news stories on its 24 hr channel. The world is rarely as grim as the news paints it, and even in this crisis there are countless small examples of positivity that dont get shared as much as the fear and gloom.

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Mysticrose said:

Right I'd best get writing. Another chapter of my novel beckons.

Is there an expression that conveys the opposite impression of 'must read'?

Unpickupable!

Morning all. Hopeful that Bojo has made it through his first night in ICU and we'll hear good news at midday.

Actually, I hope the lobby get told "The PM remains dangerously ill. You will have no further updates to feed rolling 24 hour news until either he is out of danger, or he dies. If you hear nothing more, he remains dangerously ill. And if anybody here - ANYBODY - asks another fucking thing about his health, you will lose your accreditation to the lobby. Understood?"

JohnLilburne said:

MarqueeMark said:

Martin_Kinsella said:

MarqueeMark said:

Mysticrose said:

My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.

And cyclists.

And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.

I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.

No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.

Sorry, I flagged you as off topic, it's very small on my phone, and don't seem to be able to unflag it.
But surely a runner is a pedestrian and has equal priority with a walker.
Personally, I have been trying to run against the flow of traffic so I can more safely step into the road.
Most people are very good but you get offenders of all types. Including couples and family groups of walkers who insist on taking the whole pavement, and runners and cyclists who will not adjust their line or slow down (or cycle on the pavement). It's a bit like driving on a narrow country lane: you need to have a passing strategy and plan passing places ahead

Malmesbury said:

kamski said:

Malmesbury said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:

SandraMc said:

Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.

The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.

Why do so many cyclists do this?

I assume he was a MAMIL?

Yup. Neon lycra at that.

There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.

I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.

Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?

I shout at them from about 10m. Full parade voice style. It helps strengthen the lungs.

I am considering a recitation adapted from the works of this august philosopher - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJ9Kk3ATyuM</blockquote

OK but it was a genuine question. I am curious as to how likely transmission is if you briefly pass someone breathing gently through the nose with mouth closed.

Seems logical that uncovered coughing and sneezing would be the worst, but how bad are laughing or shouting or talking or singing or panting?

Nigelb said:

JohnLilburne said:

MarqueeMark said:

Martin_Kinsella said:

MarqueeMark said:

Mysticrose said:

My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.

And cyclists.

And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.

I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.

No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.

Sorry, I flagged you as off topic, it's very small on my phone, and don't seem to be able to unflag it.
But surely a runner is a pedestrian and has equal priority with a walker.
Personally, I have been trying to run against the flow of traffic so I can more safely step into the road.
Most people are very good but you get offenders of all types. Including couples and family groups of walkers who insist on taking the whole pavement, and runners and cyclists who will not adjust their line or slow down (or cycle on the pavement). It's a bit like driving on a narrow country lane: you need to have a passing strategy and plan passing places ahead

Runners and cyclists are both moving faster, and more likely to be panting (& therefore far more likely to be generating aerosol), so they ought to bear a greater responsibility.

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

NickPalmer said:

I think that's right. I wish him the very best of outcomes, but there's something obsessive about the whole country hovering around the bedside demanding instant updates. Once a day is fine, more is just the 24/7 agenda in another of its many pernicious forms.

This is probably true. The issue remains Number 10 screwed up the messaging.

Here is Gove this morning

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1247423417554534400

That flatly contradicts the message of the last week which was PM in control, full command of his brief.

If the message last week had been PM poorly, taking it easy, we might have been less shocked to hear he went from running the country to ICU in a single bound.

Anyone who has been in hospital knows what stripped-back diary means:

- Obs
- pills
- breakfast
- toilet
- choose tomorrow's meals
- a group of doctors comes round and talks about you
- Obs
- pills
- lunch
- toilet
- Obs
- sleep
- dinner
- pills
- toilet
- Obs
- sleep

DecrepiterJohnL said:

noneoftheabove said:

Mysticrose said:

noneoftheabove said:

Mysticrose said:

IanB2 said:

Mysticrose said:

Black_Rook said:

If the Prime Minister's situation does any good at all it will hopefully be to remind people that they aren't invulnerable and should conform with the messages that the Government has been putting out over recent weeks.

I agree but I don't like the social media vigilantism, often ill-informed and rushing to judgement.

It's vital to remember that getting outside once a day for exercise is extremely important for physical and mental wellbeing. I do just wish this country weren't lagging so very far behind on the wearing of masks. They should be mandatory in public places during this lockdown.

I am still not sure. I saw some guy fiddling with his mask yesterday, and those relatively few mask wearers I have seen around here (particularly the older ones) always seem to be adjusting it. Wearing a mask probably makes you more cavalier about touching stuff as well. If you are going to carry everything you have touched around on a face mask all day you certainly aren’t helping yourself.

Just completely untrue. It does the opposite with me. It reminds me that everything outside my door, and indeed everything that comes through, is a potential virus vector.

I never touch my mask and I carry anti-bacterials everywhere.

We are hopelessly behind the curve on this. They are absolutely 100%, clearly, a preventative for viral spreading, both from those who have it and those who don't. All Asian countries have known this for years but we are pathetically clinging to the last vestiges of 'we know best.' We don't.

Far far far more important than a message to stay indoors should be, 'wear a bloody mask.'

Absolute nonsense
/

With respect I have been completely right about this virus all the way along, from the very start, and I'm right about masks. Everyone is falling into line. You will too. Eventually, though, in your case by the looks of it.

I've been hot onto this for years but that's probably because I spent 10 years living and working in Asia.

I agree the pressure to wear masks will win out in the end. Not because they help but because "something must be done".

Personally I'll listen to the science and the law, it is undecided at the moment. I am quite comfortable admitting I dont know the full science on masks because people who have studied relevant sciences all their life, in the best institutions also do not know. I really doubt people "know" just because they have lived in Asia.

Masks are not just about science. There are three other main issues. First is supply: there are simply not enough masks to go round so even if Joe Public should wear them, it might be best if the limited supply were directed to health and social care workers.

Second is that when people say there is no evidence the public would benefit, that may be because no-one ever bothered to research the question in any great depth. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, as the saying goes.

Third is that other countries, even in Europe and America, are inching towards public use of masks, so it is entirely legitimate for journalists on our behalf to raise the question.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1247425036413276160

Gove gave the right answer

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Mysticrose said:

Right I'd best get writing. Another chapter of my novel beckons.

Is there an expression that conveys the opposite impression of 'must read'?

Unpickupable!

Morning all. Hopeful that Bojo has made it through his first night in ICU and we'll hear good news at midday.

Actually, I hope the lobby get told "The PM remains dangerously ill. You will have no further updates to feed rolling 24 hour news until either he is out of danger, or he dies. If you hear nothing more, he remains dangerously ill. And if anybody here - ANYBODY - asks another fucking thing about his health, you will lose your accreditation to the lobby. Understood?"

kamski said:

Malmesbury said:

kamski said:

Malmesbury said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:

SandraMc said:

Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.

The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.

Why do so many cyclists do this?

I assume he was a MAMIL?

Yup. Neon lycra at that.

There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.

I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.

Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?

I shout at them from about 10m. Full parade voice style. It helps strengthen the lungs.

I am considering a recitation adapted from the works of this august philosopher - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJ9Kk3ATyuM

rottenborough said:

Eh? PM lies in ICU, yet FTSE up 2%.

rottenborough said:

Eh? PM lies in ICU, yet FTSE up 2%.

StuartDickson said:

Foxy said:

StuartDickson said:

Mysticrose said:

StuartDickson said:

Mysticrose said:

One thing that has worried me for some time is that Boris is very overweight: clinically obese with a BMI somewhere around 33 by most reckoning. That seems to be a factor in mortality, especially as he doesn't regularly exercise. I'm guessing he drinks a lot - well not just guessing. I heard somewhere that he has quite high blood pressure. That doesn't help either.

According to the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre the survival chance of a man his age is 54% without the aforementioned points.

So if any of that is accurate, and I don't know for certain that it is, it indicates just how grim this is and that those headlines suggesting that Boris is 'fighting for his life' are about right.

This is all pretty devastating news. And many of us have a creeping sense of dread.

Get well Boris. Pull through. We are all rooting for you.


(Source for some of the above is today's D. Telegraph)

Dr Foxy posted a very good link last week to critical care outcomes in England. The table showed that BMI is a huge determinant of whether you ever come out of intensive care. The clinically obese (BMI over 30) are much more likely to succumb. Oddly, the overweight (BMI 25-30) were slightly more likely to survive than normal-weight or underweight individuals.

The PM almost certainly has a BMI over 30. Perhaps over 35. Not good.

And according to the medical stats expert on BBC Radio Scotland an hour ago, males in their 50s are 3 times (three times) more likely to die than females in their 50s. Not at all good.

Heavy alcohol consumption makes you a sitting duck for a vast range of diseases and afflictions, including Covid19.

I’m a bit younger than the PM and have a lower BMI. I assume I drink less alcohol than him too. And I’m scared. Every man over 40 with a poor track-record at the gym should be scared shitless.

Really interesting Stuart. That point about a little bit of weight, but not too much, is fascinating. I wonder if it will continue to bear out. Maybe it's partly to do with the weight loss? Hancock said he lost half a stone in 2 days.

I assumed it was either:

A. a quirk in the stats due to small sample size (only a few hundred has been in intensive care for Covid19 when the table was published)

or
B. the effect of a lot of frail elderly people getting stage 2 Covid19

Low body weight in a medical setting is often an indication of serious underlying conditions, cancer, alcoholism, drug addiction etc. I suspect that the ICU figures are a proxy for that.

Thanks. Has the NHS in England published an updated table of critical care outcomes for Covid19?

Endillion said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

NickPalmer said:

I think that's right. I wish him the very best of outcomes, but there's something obsessive about the whole country hovering around the bedside demanding instant updates. Once a day is fine, more is just the 24/7 agenda in another of its many pernicious forms.

This is probably true. The issue remains Number 10 screwed up the messaging.

Here is Gove this morning

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1247423417554534400

That flatly contradicts the message of the last week which was PM in control, full command of his brief.

If the message last week had been PM poorly, taking it easy, we might have been less shocked to hear he went from running the country to ICU in a single bound.

Anyone who has been in hospital knows what stripped-back diary means:

- Obs
- pills
- breakfast
- toilet
- choose tomorrow's meals
- a group of doctors comes round and talks about you
- Obs
- pills
- lunch
- toilet
- Obs
- sleep
- dinner
- pills
- toilet
- Obs
- sleep

Where are the (minimum) ten occurrences of "get woken up by infernal beeping of IV drip stand"?

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

StuartDickson said:

Mysticrose said:

One thing that has worried me for some time is that Boris is very overweight: clinically obese with a BMI somewhere around 33 by most reckoning. That seems to be a factor in mortality, especially as he doesn't regularly exercise. I'm guessing he drinks a lot - well not just guessing. I heard somewhere that he has quite high blood pressure. That doesn't help either.

According to the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre the survival chance of a man his age is 54% without the aforementioned points.

So if any of that is accurate, and I don't know for certain that it is, it indicates just how grim this is and that those headlines suggesting that Boris is 'fighting for his life' are about right.

This is all pretty devastating news. And many of us have a creeping sense of dread.

Get well Boris. Pull through. We are all rooting for you.


(Source for some of the above is today's D. Telegraph)

Dr Foxy posted a very good link last week to critical care outcomes in England. The table showed that BMI is a huge determinant of whether you ever come out of intensive care. The clinically obese (BMI over 30) are much more likely to succumb. Oddly, the overweight (BMI 25-30) were slightly more likely to survive than normal-weight or underweight individuals.

The PM almost certainly has a BMI over 30. Perhaps over 35. Not good.

And according to the medical stats expert on BBC Radio Scotland an hour ago, males in their 50s are 3 times (three times) more likely to die than females in their 50s. Not at all good.

Heavy alcohol consumption makes you a sitting duck for a vast range of diseases and afflictions, including Covid19.

I’m a bit younger than the PM and have a lower BMI. I assume I drink less alcohol than him too. And I’m scared. Every man over 40 with a poor track-record at the gym should be scared shitless.

Yep I must admit I am worried. I am 54 with a BMI over 30. Until now I had considered myself to be low risk but had been following all the Government guidelines carefully to protect (I thought) other people. Trouble is I am now responsible for 100 or so houses in the village who can call on me to do shopping etc for them when all I really want to do now is batten down the hatches and sit this one out.

From memory, Richard, I think you’re based in Lincolnshire. The Times has a very useful feature that breaks down where cases are occuring:

Coronavirus tracker map UK: where the latest cases have spread

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tracking-coronavirus-in-the-uk-maps-show-how-the-disease-has-spread-2w05d0rwl
It’s behind the paywall, but in Lincs as of yesterday there’d been 275 cases, or 39 per 100,000 of the population. In Westminster, it’s 383 cases or 151/100,000. Brent is the highest in the country - 759 cases 227/100,000. Nine of the top 10 are in London. The one that isn’t, bizarrely, is the Shetlands. It’s had 41 cases, 178/100,000. I wonder if that’s related to oilfield workers, your line of business, I think (sorry).

JohnLilburne said:

Nigelb said:

JohnLilburne said:

MarqueeMark said:

Martin_Kinsella said:

MarqueeMark said:

Mysticrose said:

My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.

And cyclists.

And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.

I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.

No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.

Sorry, I flagged you as off topic, it's very small on my phone, and don't seem to be able to unflag it.
But surely a runner is a pedestrian and has equal priority with a walker.
Personally, I have been trying to run against the flow of traffic so I can more safely step into the road.
Most people are very good but you get offenders of all types. Including couples and family groups of walkers who insist on taking the whole pavement, and runners and cyclists who will not adjust their line or slow down (or cycle on the pavement). It's a bit like driving on a narrow country lane: you need to have a passing strategy and plan passing places ahead

Runners and cyclists are both moving faster, and more likely to be panting (& therefore far more likely to be generating aerosol), so they ought to bear a greater responsibility.

True, although I don't normally run fast enough to pant. But if you are running along a pavement next to a busy road and the pedestrians are bimbling around in a bunch, it cuts down your options. What's wrong with walking line astern? (And why are you exercising with family members anyway? You are banged up with them 24/7, surely you need time to yourself?)

JohnLilburne said:

Nigelb said:

JohnLilburne said:

MarqueeMark said:

Martin_Kinsella said:

MarqueeMark said:

Mysticrose said:

My biggest gripe with personal space are runners. They seem to come charging up far too close and, of course, panting volumes of breath into one's vicinity.

And cyclists.

And dog walkers, who allow their foul mutt to run around and impede others or dopey pedestrians listening to music oblivious to everyone else.

I am a runner, cyclist and walker. All groups are equally to blame.

No, you are wrong. Cyclists and runners need to take special measures to prevent contact with walkers. The hierarchy is as simple as that.

Sorry, I flagged you as off topic, it's very small on my phone, and don't seem to be able to unflag it.
But surely a runner is a pedestrian and has equal priority with a walker.
Personally, I have been trying to run against the flow of traffic so I can more safely step into the road.
Most people are very good but you get offenders of all types. Including couples and family groups of walkers who insist on taking the whole pavement, and runners and cyclists who will not adjust their line or slow down (or cycle on the pavement). It's a bit like driving on a narrow country lane: you need to have a passing strategy and plan passing places ahead

Runners and cyclists are both moving faster, and more likely to be panting (& therefore far more likely to be generating aerosol), so they ought to bear a greater responsibility.

True, although I don't normally run fast enough to pant. But if you are running along a pavement next to a busy road and the pedestrians are bimbling around in a bunch, it cuts down your options. What's wrong with walking line astern? (And why are you exercising with family members anyway? You are banged up with them 24/7, surely you need time to yourself?)

StuartDickson said:

IanB2 said:

StuartDickson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

StuartDickson said:

Mysticrose said:

I agree about the 1950-style hoodwinking attempts by No.10. It has had the opposite effect from what they intended but I'm afraid it has been Boris' way of life: spin and bluster and obfuscation and downright lies.

That doesn't mean I don't now wish him well. I am desperately hoping he pulls through. If he does I suspect he may be a changed man.

Almost certainly. If he survives this, it may well be his epiphany.

I know that my year of cancer (two years if you include the pre-diagnosis decline, which is easy to see in hindsight but miss in reality) changed me beyond all recognition. Both physically and my personality. Entirely for the better.

I’ll never forget those doctors and nurses. I can see their faces and their mannerisms just as clearly as cherished childhood friends

Morning Stuart

hope you are well sir. Ae you still in Sweden and if so what is your take from inside the country on how they are handling it?

God morgon Richard!

Yes, I am in rude good health sir! Just worked double night shifts at the rail traffic control centre, helping to transport essential things like food, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, key workers and toilet rolls* around the continent.

My take on the fact that Sweden once again diverges from accepted wisdom? Dunno. I just listen to the experts. It’s all a question of balance. Saving the lives of as many (mainly elderly) as possible while not crushing the lives and the mental health of too many younger people. I suspect that Sweden has got the balance about right.

I worry about what all this is doing to the mental health of young adults, teenagers and children. Primary and middle-school children are at the top of the agenda here in Sweden, hence why schools, nursery and day care are all still up and running. Our youngest is off for Easter but then back at school next week.

3 out of the 4 adults in our household work (key industries: maritime, rail and primary education). The 4th has been sent home by her Scottish university and is actively seeking jobs (another interview this afternoon).

We have bought a puppy, to be delivered next week. We get our haircut. Visit dentist. The kids play in the sun. We take as many walks as we like and chill at the cafe.

I am a bit scared, but very few people here seem that bothered, and you are a product of your environment. My sister thinks we are all stark raving bonkers. If I admitted how scared I was people would think me a bit odd.

Tons of neighbours have lost their jobs or are on short-time working. I feel sorry for people close to pension that hadn’t reduced their exposure. I’m heavy on gold.

(*yes, bog roll is a huge export product from these parts)

You have some serious hard work coming your way for a few weeks with a puppy. You will look back on it one day and smile, but not always at the time!

Oh, I know what I’m letting myself in for Ian. I was brought up by parents who bred miniature dachshunds! The wife however is totally clueless. She panic subscribed to a broadsheet newspaper this morning cos she’s convinced the pup will ruin her cherished floors and rugs. She was shocked when I told her that girl dogs have periods and boy dogs shag things And are they really called “bitches” in English? How rude!

Floater said:

ydoethur said:

TGOHF666 said:

Ozzie Telegraph responds to angry letter from Chinese consulate.

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/tim-blair/via-local-commie-underlings-beijing-officially-disapproves/news-story/491b415795fbbdc526d33d5b569134a4

That is brilliantly funny. At risk of stereotyping, so very Aussie in its style as well!

Absolutely wonderful

Malmesbury said:

kamski said:

Malmesbury said:

kamski said:

Malmesbury said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:

SandraMc said:

Re: cyclists. On Friday I saw a group of four young cyclists and a woman - presumably their mother. She was riding on the road but the children were on the pavement and passed within inches of an elderly couple.

The only person apart from my wife I have come within 2m of in the last 3 weeks was a fucking cyclist who came past me nearer to 2 feet. I didn't hear him coming up behind me, I'd no chance to evade him as I was already by the hedge on the lane. Plenty of room for him to move over. Arsehole.

Why do so many cyclists do this?

I assume he was a MAMIL?

Yup. Neon lycra at that.

There seem to be a number of people out there, whatever their means of locomotion - walking, bike, running.. who insist on coming too close. A special favourite is the moron who, when coming towards you, chooses the middle of a pavement 3m wide. Couples are particularly bad at this.

I stop and shout at the them to get out of the way.

Has anyone got any estimates on how likely you are to pass the virus to someone else if you pass by them within 1m with your mouth closed compared to shouting at them from slightly further away?

I shout at them from about 10m. Full parade voice style. It helps strengthen the lungs.

I am considering a recitation adapted from the works of this august philosopher - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJ9Kk3ATyuM

I would be genuinely interested to see a peer reviewed paper.

Consider this - how far away can you smell the stench from a vaping device?

IanB2 said:

On the downside I wasn't prepared for the relentlessness of the first few weeks, and didn't expect at my age to find myself waking up in the small hours lying on the kitchen floor.

Mexicanpete said:

Interesting question from Piers Morgan to Gove. Who has their finger on the nuclear button, is it the military or a politician?

Gove: Dominic is in charge (slightly paraphrased from memory).

Chris said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

StuartDickson said:

Mysticrose said:

One thing that has worried me for some time is that Boris is very overweight: clinically obese with a BMI somewhere around 33 by most reckoning. That seems to be a factor in mortality, especially as he doesn't regularly exercise. I'm guessing he drinks a lot - well not just guessing. I heard somewhere that he has quite high blood pressure. That doesn't help either.

According to the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre the survival chance of a man his age is 54% without the aforementioned points.

So if any of that is accurate, and I don't know for certain that it is, it indicates just how grim this is and that those headlines suggesting that Boris is 'fighting for his life' are about right.

This is all pretty devastating news. And many of us have a creeping sense of dread.

Get well Boris. Pull through. We are all rooting for you.


(Source for some of the above is today's D. Telegraph)

Dr Foxy posted a very good link last week to critical care outcomes in England. The table showed that BMI is a huge determinant of whether you ever come out of intensive care. The clinically obese (BMI over 30) are much more likely to succumb. Oddly, the overweight (BMI 25-30) were slightly more likely to survive than normal-weight or underweight individuals.

The PM almost certainly has a BMI over 30. Perhaps over 35. Not good.

And according to the medical stats expert on BBC Radio Scotland an hour ago, males in their 50s are 3 times (three times) more likely to die than females in their 50s. Not at all good.

Heavy alcohol consumption makes you a sitting duck for a vast range of diseases and afflictions, including Covid19.

I’m a bit younger than the PM and have a lower BMI. I assume I drink less alcohol than him too. And I’m scared. Every man over 40 with a poor track-record at the gym should be scared shitless.

Yep I must admit I am worried. I am 54 with a BMI over 30. Until now I had considered myself to be low risk but had been following all the Government guidelines carefully to protect (I thought) other people. Trouble is I am now responsible for 100 or so houses in the village who can call on me to do shopping etc for them when all I really want to do now is batten down the hatches and sit this one out.

From memory, Richard, I think you’re based in Lincolnshire. The Times has a very useful feature that breaks down where cases are occuring:

Coronavirus tracker map UK: where the latest cases have spread

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tracking-coronavirus-in-the-uk-maps-show-how-the-disease-has-spread-2w05d0rwl
It’s behind the paywall, but in Lincs as of yesterday there’d been 275 cases, or 39 per 100,000 of the population. In Westminster, it’s 383 cases or 151/100,000. Brent is the highest in the country - 759 cases 227/100,000. Nine of the top 10 are in London. The one that isn’t, bizarrely, is the Shetlands. It’s had 41 cases, 178/100,000. I wonder if that’s related to oilfield workers, your line of business, I think (sorry).

I would guess the true figures are probably higher by two orders of magnitude, though.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

AlastairMeeks said:

rottenborough said:

Eh? PM lies in ICU, yet FTSE up 2%.

Following the Dow Jones, and with sterling falling the FTSE, which makes most of its money outside the Uk, pretty much automatically rises.

NB:

https://twitter.com/eddyelfenbein/status/1247325085507215361?s=21

Long may it continue

Perception across the world covid 19 has peaked