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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The exit door. The state of Labour as Jeremy Corbyn departs

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Alcohol is the only thing keeping me moderately (in)sane at this moment in time. I understand why they’re doing it but goodness, there’s no way they could manage that in the UK. There’d be riots.
    Even in Dubai they're keeping the alcohol shops open! They're doing a roaring trade with all the bars closed.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,948
    RobD said:

    It's a week from developing symptoms? If you still have symptoms after that, common sense suggests you continue to stay away.
    Well, that's not the advice. The advice is that it's OK to stop self-isolating after a week even if you have a cough.

    But what I'm asking about is whether there is any scientific basis for people no longer being infectious after a week.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,208
    Deaths going down is good right? Flat curve?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,276
    edited March 2020

    Somebody I know in the shadowy spooky word says The Bureau is the most life-like TV series he has seen.
    I can believe it (and as I said it was acclaimed by the DGSE); not everything goes right, they show the back office boring grunty work as well as the in-the-field action, and spend a fair bit of time developing the characters and their personalities, including the damaging effects of their jobs on their lives. The use of technology etc. is impressive but seems realistic, including its limitations. And there are some interesting scenes about their relations with other secret services, including the CIA.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,595
    Any list of great TV that omits Succession is... Well, not s list of great TV.
  • Homeland should have been a one series thing. It was a great tale and you weren't sure who was a goodie or baddie. After that, I didn't care.

    Same with Prison Break.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,595

    Homeland should have been a one series thing. It was a great tale and you weren't sure who was a goodie or baddie. After that, I didn't care.

    You could say the same of Billions.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,744
    edited March 2020
    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1244248719828156417

    Although we shouldn't be "tracking" against Italy, but we are literally blow for blow with them that last few days around similar parts of the curve.
  • novanova Posts: 757
    Barnesian said:

    The latest and final series of Homeland is excellent. I'll be watching it tonight.
    Agreed. It was good at the start, but the Damian Lewis/Brodie story had nowhere to go. Once they moved on from that it's got a lot better.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,084
    IanB2 said:

    Homeland was ludicrous from start to finish, watchable at the start but not by the later series. I haven’t seen the final one.

    It's very up-to-date. Peace talks with theTaliban opposed by the Afghan government.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Stocky said:

    Alastair, please stop what you are doing, sit down, and at the very least watch The West Wing, The Sopranos and then The Wire.

    Then we can talk.
    The west wing is just dreadful
  • Deaths going down is good right? Flat curve?

    I really wouldn’t look at one day’s data and make assumptions.

    Best to look at a rolling seven day average.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,744
    rcs1000 said:

    You could say the same of Billions.
    100%....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,595
    As far as documentaries go, The Jinx is a superb four-parter.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,744

    Same with Prison Break.
    Even more than Billions...but of course the ultimate the show that should have been a "One Seasoner"..... Westworld.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,276
    Stocky said:

    Alastair, please stop what you are doing, sit down, and at the very least watch The West Wing, The Sopranos and then The Wire.

    Then we can talk.
    Where can you watch the sopranos nowadays?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,775

    I once went out with a dead ringer for Jenny Agutter in her prime. Think American Werewolf in London, nurses uniform period....
    And you let her get away!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,744
    I think too early to say anything about a one day flattening of the number of deaths.

    e.g. Italy went 1016, 1266, 1441...then it just went up and up from there, to 300 a day, 400, etc..
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,281
    rcs1000 said:

    Any list of great TV that omits Succession is... Well, not s list of great TV.

    You are probably right - I haven`t watched it because I can`t get for free yet (I don`t think). I`ve hear great things about it and really want to watch it.
  • HYUFD said:

    True, it just happens that Vice Presidents almost always run after 8 years of their party in the White House when the President cannot run again due to term limits and the mood is for change. The exception being Mondale who ran in 1984 after Carter lost to Reagan after just 1 term (Mondale still lost and Reagan was re elected anyway) and Biden who decided not to run in 2016 but is now challenging Trump as likely Democratic nominee
    And, in a sense, Nixon in 1968 (who'd lost as a current VP in 1960 but won as an ex-VP in 1968).

    A few ex-VPs have also failed to do what Biden looks to have done and get the nomination - e.g. Quayle ran in 2000 but withdrew before the first primaries.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,276

    Homeland should have been a one series thing. It was a great tale and you weren't sure who was a goodie or baddie. After that, I didn't care.

    And having a returning serviceman with PTSD worrying everyone about his stability and loyalty one minute and then running as Vice President the next was just lame. Americans must be able to tolerate such leaps of imagination but I am sure most Brits were going WTF?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,811
    MaxPB said:

    The West Wing is great until the end of the Bartlett campaign, everything after that is just okay.

    The Wire is probably the best TV show ever made, even if it does get a bit messy towards the end.

    Personally, I'd also recommend DS9, it's a great character drama if you can stand star trek. It's not very much like the rest of them.
    Yes the Wire is definitely the best I don't think that is contentious.

    Oh and forgot The Americans. Another excellent series.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,281

    The west wing is just dreadful
    i can`t imagine why you think that. It is superbly scripted and acted, and addictive. I`ve watched it three times and give it a couple more years and I`ll watch it again. Why don`t you like it?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,384
    edited March 2020
    Chris said:

    Well, that's not the advice. The advice is that it's OK to stop self-isolating after a week even if you have a cough.

    But what I'm asking about is whether there is any scientific basis for people no longer being infectious after a week.
    https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-sheds-early-in-disease.html

    In the mild cases, viral shedding dipped steadily after Day 5, and by Day 10, patients likely weren't contagious anymore, the authors noted.

    I think these are mild hospitilised cases. I assume ones not requiring medical intervention should be similar.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Chris said:

    Well, that's not the advice. The advice is that it's OK to stop self-isolating after a week even if you have a cough.

    But what I'm asking about is whether there is any scientific basis for people no longer being infectious after a week.
    There are lots of studies investigating virus shedding post symptom-onset and there is evidence of people still shedding the virus 3-weeks later. Again like anything it is a trade-off. I imagine because most people live in households of more than 1 person, the 14-day cut-point will work reasonably well for the first person at least. If someone is symptomatic beyond day 14 then common sense would suggest to keep on isolating. More needs to be done here to provide further guidance I think. The NHS has launched its 111 text messaging service so this might help providing more patient-centred guidance.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,276
    rcs1000 said:
    He is trying to say that we have an antigen test but not an antibody test, yet. And failing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,744
    Ok another question...best 1-2 season tv show that got cut too, but was actually really good....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,811

    Unfortunately (but unsurprisingly) another 200 deaths. Still not doing enough tests.

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1244248001868111874?s=20

    Why don't the testing numbers add up to the positive and negative numbers?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,744
    TOPPING said:

    Why don't the testing numbers add up to the positive and negative numbers?
    That will have twitter claiming Boris fiddling the numbers again.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,775
    HYUFD said:

    Great poll for Varadkar, he is also getting a poll boost it seems as the incumbent PM
    Leo wouldn't still be PM if the other parties had got their act together.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,333
    edited March 2020
    TOPPING said:

    Why don't the testing numbers add up to the positive and negative numbers?
    Awaiting results, like @Foxy ?

    Edit: They do sum through.
  • In my eyes people who think The West Wing is dreadful are one rung below people who put pineapples on pizza.
  • topovtopov Posts: 16

    Complete nonsense!!

    Gilt rates at 0.36%...
    This is bollocks on almost every level I've been a sell side sovereign bond analyst for over 20 years - the UK DMO (every DMO in fact) consults the GEMMS all the time about investor demand - they even publish a meeting calendar and then the minutes of the meeting afterwards. The auction calendar is available for anyone to view on their website too and it hasn't changed from what was originally announced - although increases are clearly coming of course....
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,948

    The cough associated with this disease can go on for months - long after virus shedding stops.
    The question is whether there is scientific evidence for the policy of assuming people stop being infectious a week after symptoms start.

    Obviously the point about the cough is not that a cough shows whether they are still infectious, but that if they are still infectious and they have a cough - well, surely you get the idea ...
  • Ok another question...best 1-2 season tv show that got cut too, but was actually really good....

    Twin Peaks.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,276
    edited March 2020
    TOPPING said:

    Yes the Wire is definitely the best I don't think that is contentious.

    Oh and forgot The Americans. Another excellent series.
    Yes - the Americans is superbly scripted and acted, and is as much about relationships as about spying. You do have to suspend disbelief as they go about the US killing people, since there isn’t any evidence of the KGB spies and sleepers ever having killed anyone on US soil during the Cold War.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,442
    IanB2 said:

    Where can you watch the sopranos nowadays?
    Sky Atlantic are currently repeating the whole shebang. Not sure if you can go back to Episode 1, Series 1 on catch up.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    Ok another question...best 1-2 season tv show that got cut too, but was actually really good....

    Deadwood. More than two seasons but canned before it finished. Crazy decision.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,384
    TOPPING said:

    Why don't the testing numbers add up to the positive and negative numbers?
    Yes, they do: 108215+19522 = 127737

  • novanova Posts: 757

    We all project our own tastes! I'd second The Man in the High Castle (Amazon) series 1 and 2, and the Danish dramas The Killing and The Bridge are just as good as nearly everyone said (iplayer, I think) - all three recommended for depth of characters as much as plot. Fleabag was good amoral fun if you're not too shocked by the first 10 minutes.

    Two whose names escape me but others will remember (help!) were the US series on a returning American prisoner of Islamic State (has he been brainwashed?) and the one about a woman who falls for a much younger man. The former requires a certain amount of idientification with the CIA as basically good guys, the latter is loved by many (including me) but younger viewers tended to despise it - but the plot in the former is great and the latter is much more subtle than the simple thesis suggests.

    I enjoyed The Killing and The Bridge, although I think we do project a little more depth because of the subtitles. They're closer to a slightly trashy ITV primetime series, rather than their BBC4 home suggests.

    In The Bridge, there's definitely a very heavy drinking game based around the number of scenes in which Saga gets in or out of her flippin' car.
  • HYUFD said:
    That isn't true from Fabbers. South Korea and China have both had a lot of asymptomatic positive tests, as has Germany (who have extensively tested contacts of those with symptoms).

    What there isn't yet, but probably will be imminently, is an antibody test for those who have had, but no longer have, the virus.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,333
    Although Germany's testing is very comprehensive it could have a number of false positives in it if people are being tested without symptons.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,281
    IanB2 said:

    Where can you watch the sopranos nowadays?
    Not sure. Pirate Bay if you are naughty.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,775
    Right. Time to turn off the news, put down the tablet and read an improving book...
  • NEW THREAD

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    IanB2 said:

    Yes - the Americans is superbly scripted and acted, and is as much about relationships as about spying. You do have to suspend disbelief as they go about the US killing people, since there isn’t any evidence of the KGB spies and sleepers ever having killed anyone on US soil during the Cold War.
    Well sure, but that just makes me think of a quote I came across recently from Bernard Cornwell on changing details in a historical novel, which boiled down to 'I changed [events] because fictional heroes must be given suitable employment'.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,281

    Deadwood. More than two seasons but canned before it finished. Crazy decision.
    Deadwood is awesome. The end of the two seasons was a kind of natural end - so it does stand as a sort of complete piece in my view. Great characters, brilliantly acted. And also interesting historical piece about the creation of a town from nothing but dust.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    On Netflix, there's hundreds of standup comedy specials, one or two a day definitely help keep the spirits up.

    Dave Chapelle, Bill Burr, Trevor Noah, Iliza Schlesenger and Anthony Jeselnik being recent highlights.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_original_stand-up_comedy_specials_distributed_by_Netflix

    Also, a lot of the late-night comics in the US are 'working from home', streaming on Youtube their monologues and inviting other comics to join remotely. The politics-free Lights Out With David Spade the the highlight among these.

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMi38pytm6Ca2KXc7ftlu_w
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,941
    No mention of the series that created a genre - The Killing?

    Scandinoir. Strong "empowered" female lead. Dense plotting and characterization. Slow burn atmosphere. Political angle. Many twists. The music.

    It's been remade as Spiral, The Bridge, loads more - but it was the first and best.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,948
    RobD said:

    https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-sheds-early-in-disease.html

    In the mild cases, viral shedding dipped steadily after Day 5, and by Day 10, patients likely weren't contagious anymore, the authors noted.

    I think these are mild hospitilised cases. I assume ones not requiring medical intervention should be similar.
    Thanks. So on the basis of that report, the government is telling people to stop self-isolating three days earlier than the medical advice would indicate - though the advice about releasing people after ten days is conditional on "provided that swab samples from their throat contain fewer than 100,000 copies of viral genetic material per milliliter", which obviously won't be happening.

    Essentially I just wonder why they are saying just a week when caution would indicate - say - 14 days. And whether the 7-day advice was formulated when they had the crazy policy of letting most people get it, but slowing down the spread somewhat.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,384
    Chris said:

    Thanks. So on the basis of that report, the government is telling people to stop self-isolating three days earlier than the medical advice would indicate - though the advice about releasing people after ten days is conditional on "provided that swab samples from their throat contain fewer than 100,000 copies of viral genetic material per milliliter", which obviously won't be happening.

    Essentially I just wonder why they are saying just a week when caution would indicate - say - 14 days. And whether the 7-day advice was formulated when they had the crazy policy of letting most people get it, but slowing down the spread somewhat.
    Well, this is only one study I managed to find with a quick google search. You hope the government advisors do a bit more than that. From this, seven days sounds reasonable, especially when you combine it with all the social distancing that is going on these days.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,281
    kinabalu said:

    No mention of the series that created a genre - The Killing?

    Scandinoir. Strong "empowered" female lead. Dense plotting and characterization. Slow burn atmosphere. Political angle. Many twists. The music.

    It's been remade as Spiral, The Bridge, loads more - but it was the first and best.

    The Killing let itself down at the end - too many twists IMO

    Spiral is excellent - it wasn`t a remake of The killing though. Spiral was made long before The Killing.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,811
    Stocky said:

    You are probably right - I haven`t watched it because I can`t get for free yet (I don`t think). I`ve hear great things about it and really want to watch it.
    Yes it's great.

    And as for Alistair's I don't watch much TV that is a bit like someone in the seventeenth century saying I don't get down to The Globe much. Or the NT or the Almeida or the Edinburgh Festival today.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,276
    RobD said:

    I think the statistics are simply incomplete.
    The death rate compared to total cases (of around 1%, probably much lower allowing for mild and asymptomatic unidentified cases) doesn’t look particularly alarming compared to other countries. I suspect the discrepancy is simply the amount of effort put into repeat testing and reporting those who have recovered.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,941
    edited March 2020
    Stocky said:

    The Killing let itself down at the end - too many twists IMO

    Spiral is excellent - it wasn`t a remake of The killing though. Spiral was made long before The Killing.

    The end of series 1 was great, though, I thought. In fact I really am talking about series 1.

    You are right about Spiral. It was made first. So I take that back.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,276
    kle4 said:

    Well sure, but that just makes me think of a quote I came across recently from Bernard Cornwell on changing details in a historical novel, which boiled down to 'I changed [events] because fictional heroes must be given suitable employment'.
    The Americans wouldn’t have been much of a series if they just photocopied documents and waited for World War Three not to break out, for sure.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,276
    Stocky said:

    Deadwood is awesome. The end of the two seasons was a kind of natural end - so it does stand as a sort of complete piece in my view. Great characters, brilliantly acted. And also interesting historical piece about the creation of a town from nothing but dust.
    It’s sad to see Deadwood finish life as a ‘fake town’, as it seemed when I was there last autumn. But the show is definitely on my list.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,897
    edited March 2020
    ..
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,167
    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic - like @Andy_JS I have watched very little TV over the past few years so have missed out on pretty much all the dramas that people praise.

    A girl cannot live on Midsomer Murder repeats alone. I’ve just started on Broadchuch, which is very good - though not exactly cheering.

    Now, of course, is the perfect time for all that catching up.

    A list of PB’ers Top 10 / 20 dramas / films / documentary series would be much appreciated. I have Netflix and Amazon Prime. Thanks very much.

    Anything by Ken Burns - the documentaries about Vietnam, The West, and The Civil War are superb.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,018
    slade said:

    Anything by Ken Burns - the documentaries about Vietnam, The West, and The Civil War are superb.
    Foyles was unmissable imo.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649

    Ok another question...best 1-2 season tv show that got cut too, but was actually really good....

    A couple of Joss Whedon shows, Firefly (1 season) and Dollhouse (2 seasons)

    Utopia (2 seasons) Maybe on Channel 4 catchup?

    Carnivale (2 seasons)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,702

    And you let her get away!
    I used and abused plenty before I did.....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    He is trying to say that we have an antigen test but not an antibody test, yet. And failing.
    But it's the ones with antigens who are contagious not the ones with antibodies. Theoretically if we could test everyone for antigens we could virtually end this pandemic overnight.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,131

    Same with Prison Break.
    I raise you Cell Block H
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