politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Without intensive social distancing the UK death-toll could re
Comments
-
A little breathless, and tight chest, coughing again, but O2 sats OK, and still no fever.MarqueeMark said:
How are you doing today?Foxy said:
We do not know that chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine have been proven effective, though studies are ongoing. The Chinese study communicated yesterday showed no effect. In addition it can interfere with cardiac conduction, potentially an issue with COVID19 myocarditis. I appreciate there is a certain amount of levity in your comment, but would be cautious about the rush to judgement.Luckyguy1983 said:We know that social contact these days is out. We know that alcohol above 70% kills the virus. We know that hydroxychloroqin has proven an effective treatment in some cases and is a derivative of quinine. We now find out that lying on your front can stop you needing a ventilator. So really, the solution is to get sh*t-faced on maximum strength G&T, alone, and end up passing out face forward.
In terms of positioning, there is an interesting review of prone ventilation for ARDS here:
There are some benefits, and some downsides. The better oxygenation and reduced lung injury vs increased cardiac arrest.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4173887/
@GideonWise may be interested
Testing later. The view is that leaving it a couple of days after symptoms appear increases the chances of an accurate result. It shouldn't increase my self isolation or alter treatment in the short term.3 -
If you can't wipe your nose on the back of your tie, I guess the argument for having a long double cuff is stronger?RochdalePioneers said:
Ewwww. Double cuff plus cufflink does feel like overkill at the best of times, as does a tie. I don't need to wear a tie much any more, never mind a waistcoat. But at the end of a week where its been flat out every day and Groundhog Day every day, why not try and mix it up and try to go back to "normal" times.IanB2 said:
Decorum? Aren't they so you can wipe your nose on the cuff and then fold it back with the debris inside. An innovation from Napoleonic France.RochdalePioneers said:
Double-cuff shirts are the only shirts. Lets have a bit of fucking decorumDecrepiterJohnL said:
With cufflinks like David Cameron or Jacob Rees-Mogg, or ordinary, buttoned single cuffs like our man-of-the-people, Eton and Oxford Prime Minister?RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed! And to bring some semblance of normality I am sat at my desk in a 3 piece suit. #dressupfridayLuckyguy1983 said:Morning all. Friday!
0 -
One striking thing in this article is that, on a calorie basis, we're expecting supermarkets to increase their supply of food by more than 40%. That's big.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/millions-to-need-food-aid-in-days-as-virus-exposes-uk-supply0 -
Morning all,
The comms over this antibody test is starting to piss me off. One day we hear it is just days away. Later same day there is a discussion of how must be absolutely sure it works before using it, so tests on going. Now it seems it is within two weeks away, but unsure whether wide public will have it at first.
Why don't they just say there may be such a test, it would really help, but we are still testing the test and will get back to you.1 -
Some of them taking multiple personalities with them..IanB2 said:
Horse, stable....Black_Rook said:
FWIW I'm horrified that a cordon sanitaire hasn't been thrown up around London - roadblocks, no trains in or out - simply to protect the provinces.Mysticrose said:
Indeed.eadric said:
Normalcy bias is very hard to shift. Even tho i first identified this bias here on PB, I still suffer from it. Sometimes I walk out of my door, and think, “WTF, let’s go back to London. Have a nice lunch. This is absurd.”isam said:I have followed the governments advice from day one, ordered my parents to stay in, clapped for the NHS at the front door at 8pm tonight, the whole shebang... but am I really the only one on here who doesn’t have nagging doubts that the 24hr news cycle, the tabloid headlines, the way of human nature to be preoccupied with catastrophe might mean we are over reacting?
I feel slightly like one of the Peoples Temple folk who drank the pretend poison Jim Jones gave them to test their loyalty before the kool aid came out
But this isn’t absurd. This is a virus with the potential to collapse societies, via their health systems. Those are the cold hard facts, as we see in Wuhan, Italy and Spain.
We cannot deny it.
If anything I think a lot of people are still in denial.
We're about to see a death surge, especially in London.
By the way, I know a lot of people who have it, or we assume so. No testing so no proof.
If the capital goes the way of Lombardy then the obvious risk is that panicked Londoners will try to flee - not just wealthy second home owners, but those with friends or family elsewhere who are willing to put them up - thus spreading the disease everywhere else.
I'm not one of these self-proclaimed experts and I may very well be wrong, but this does have the appearance of a catastrophe waiting to happen.
Panicked Londoners are already all over.2 -
For how long? The public can't be eating that much more, and there must be a physical limit to most people's stockpiling.LostPassword said:One striking thing in this article is that, on a calorie basis, we're expecting supermarkets to increase their supply of food by more than 40%. That's big.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/millions-to-need-food-aid-in-days-as-virus-exposes-uk-supply0 -
Glad that you've managed to get a test, a couple of my cousins were able to get tests done too. They are just waiting for results now. Oddly both are hoping they have it so they can go back to work as soon as they are over it and not have to worry about contracting it or giving it to patients.Foxy said:
A little breathless, and tight chest, coughing again, but O2 sats OK, and still no fever.MarqueeMark said:
How are you doing today?Foxy said:
We do not know that chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine have been proven effective, though studies are ongoing. The Chinese study communicated yesterday showed no effect. In addition it can interfere with cardiac conduction, potentially an issue with COVID19 myocarditis. I appreciate there is a certain amount of levity in your comment, but would be cautious about the rush to judgement.Luckyguy1983 said:We know that social contact these days is out. We know that alcohol above 70% kills the virus. We know that hydroxychloroqin has proven an effective treatment in some cases and is a derivative of quinine. We now find out that lying on your front can stop you needing a ventilator. So really, the solution is to get sh*t-faced on maximum strength G&T, alone, and end up passing out face forward.
In terms of positioning, there is an interesting review of prone ventilation for ARDS here:
There are some benefits, and some downsides. The better oxygenation and reduced lung injury vs increased cardiac arrest.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4173887/
@GideonWise may be interested
Testing later. The view is that leaving it a couple of days after symptoms appear increases the chances of an accurate result. It shouldn't increase my self isolation or alter treatment in the short term.0 -
Have to say that. although I'm obviously out of date now, I don't see HOW chloroquine could work on a virus and agree with Dr F that there could be cardiac problems. There's also the possibility, according to the BNF, of ophthalmic problems, although it probably has to be used for a while to get those.Foxy said:
We do not know that chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine have been proven effective, though studies are ongoing. The Chinese study communicated yesterday showed no effect. In addition it can interfere with cardiac conduction, potentially an issue with COVID19 myocarditis. I appreciate there is a certain amount of levity in your comment, but would be cautious about the rush to judgement.Luckyguy1983 said:We know that social contact these days is out. We know that alcohol above 70% kills the virus. We know that hydroxychloroqin has proven an effective treatment in some cases and is a derivative of quinine. We now find out that lying on your front can stop you needing a ventilator. So really, the solution is to get sh*t-faced on maximum strength G&T, alone, and end up passing out face forward.
In terms of positioning, there is an interesting review of prone ventilation for ARDS here:
There are some benefits, and some downsides. The better oxygenation and reduced lung injury vs increased cardiac arrest.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4173887/
@GideonWise may be interested0 -
One thing we need to talk about is courage.felix said:
Indeed - but they don't reflect the norm I think - certainly where I live in the rural coastal south-east the respect for us 'ancianos' is a wonder to behold.IanB2 said:
The stories coming out of Spain of care home staff legging it and the home is found unstaffed with dead or dying residents, aren't great.felix said:
I'm not that close to the care home option personally yet I hope but it has made me consider my options for the future quite carefully. I think the Spanish generally show great care and respect for the elderly and pensions are very generous. Obviously care homes are going to be very vulnerable to this kind of disease but I think the scandals in Madrid is the exception rather tha normal.SouthamObserver said:
A really striking thing about Spain is the percentage of deaths there have been in private rest homes for the elderly - about a third of the total. These are required to provide affordable care, but also turn a profit. The resulting trade-offs are only now coming to light. You cannot do social care on the cheap.Black_Rook said:
Hence the worryingly high proportion of reported cases in Spain found in the medical profession.IanB2 said:Professor Barclay on Newsnight again making the point that the severity of your illness is influenced by the amount of virus you receive on first infection. She is a professor of infectious diseases so ought to know.
Now that most people are keeping their distance from each other and all the shops and workplaces that are still operational are getting better at implementing good hygiene and social distancing practices, one wonders if the proportion of very mild or asymptomatic cases might increase accordingly?
In a best case scenario, we might find after three months that a large chunk of the country has had this illness whilst being either wholly unaware of it, or having self-isolated without being at all certain that they were suffering from it. Though this can only be determined once the testing capacity is sufficient to check a representative sample of the general population, of course.
A long time ago, I talked with a veteran of the Falklands. He said that in every battle there a small percentage of the men were curled up in a ball in the deepest hole they could find. Interestingly who it was varied from battle to battle - the guy sobbing with fear one night, was a screaming dervish the next, bayonetting with the best of them.
He reckoned that because it wasn't talked about, a lot of people were damaged for life by their behaviour on their "off night".
This matches reports from other wars and struggles - cowardice can hit anyone, and is often an unusual event.
In WWII the RAF recognised this and rehabiliated Lack of Moral Fibre (LMF) cases - most returned to the front lines.... There is an oft told story about such a case who ended up flying for 617 squadron...
There have been reports of medics, in various countries, breaking and abandoning their posts. This will happen here. Demanding absolute bravery 100% of the time doesn't match the human condition.
In the discussion yesterday about the lady who evicted the doctor from her house, I noticed that others were quick to say that they would have taken the risk. Are you so very sure?
We should all be sure not to be "killing Kruger with our mouths"... And think on what will need to be done - not just support for the heroes, but the ones who trip as well.
7 -
One of the fair criticisms of the government’s emergency response is that reality often doesn’t match the rhetoric. The details don’t follow or match the headline announcements. It was certainly the case with exams. It is the case on tests. Bailouts and benefits seem slow to materialise.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The comms over this antibody test is starting to piss me off. One day we hear it is just days away. Later same day there is a discussion of how must be absolutely sure it works before using it, so tests on going. Now it seems it is within two weeks away, but unsure whether wide public will have it at first.
Why don't they just say there may be such a test, it would really help, but we are still testing the test and will get back to you.
0 -
"Shortages have eased in recent days, but many products are still out of stock and supermarket shelves are unlikely to look the way they usually do for a long time."LostPassword said:One striking thing in this article is that, on a calorie basis, we're expecting supermarkets to increase their supply of food by more than 40%. That's big.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/millions-to-need-food-aid-in-days-as-virus-exposes-uk-supply
Shortages have eased because the shopping frenzy has slowed. A marked pull back from last week's double the normal demand, its tracking at about 40% up. The point about the risk of disrupted production is very real - if enough people go off sick then factories won't be able to maintain normal production.
0 -
No, the issue is that 20-30% of our intake comes from eating out. Lunches, work canteens, nights out, pubs etc... All of this now has to be replaced by home cooking.rottenborough said:
For how long? The public can't be eating that much more, and there must be a physical limit to most people's stockpiling.LostPassword said:One striking thing in this article is that, on a calorie basis, we're expecting supermarkets to increase their supply of food by more than 40%. That's big.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/millions-to-need-food-aid-in-days-as-virus-exposes-uk-supply1 -
In both the US and Nigeria there have already been cases of death from people getting hold of chloroquine thinking it wards off the virus (which no-one is suggesting)OldKingCole said:
Have to say that. although I'm obviously out of date now, I don't see HOW chloroquine could work on a virus and agree with Dr F that there could be cardiac problems. There's also the possibility, according to the BNF, of ophthalmic problems, although it probably has to be used for a while to get those.Foxy said:
We do not know that chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine have been proven effective, though studies are ongoing. The Chinese study communicated yesterday showed no effect. In addition it can interfere with cardiac conduction, potentially an issue with COVID19 myocarditis. I appreciate there is a certain amount of levity in your comment, but would be cautious about the rush to judgement.Luckyguy1983 said:We know that social contact these days is out. We know that alcohol above 70% kills the virus. We know that hydroxychloroqin has proven an effective treatment in some cases and is a derivative of quinine. We now find out that lying on your front can stop you needing a ventilator. So really, the solution is to get sh*t-faced on maximum strength G&T, alone, and end up passing out face forward.
In terms of positioning, there is an interesting review of prone ventilation for ARDS here:
There are some benefits, and some downsides. The better oxygenation and reduced lung injury vs increased cardiac arrest.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4173887/
@GideonWise may be interested
https://leadership.ng/2020/03/21/lagos-hospitals-flooded-with-chloroquine-overdose-patients/
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/arizona-man-dies-chloroquine-trump-coronavirus-advice.html0 -
But I'm looking forwards, not backwards.Philip_Thompson said:
You're understanding it backwards.MarqueeMark said:
Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.paulyork64 said:
Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
The triple lock is doomed.
Increasing by the rate of inflation doesn't cost anything at all in real terms.
Increasing by 2.5% if inflation is extremely low is expensive in real terms.
State pensioners have done very well for a decade out of the triple lock. That ends now.1 -
Also, no more self isolation for me! Finally back into the bedroom. It's been along week.2
-
Fingers crossed for you, Foxy. A question that has puzzled me a bit - clearly London is running a bit ahead of the rest of the country but, since we slammed on the brakes at the same rate everywhere, does it not follow that the peak will take place at the same time everywhere, just with a lower amplitude outside London? I've heard several colleagues say that the peak will be deferred (i.e., later) outside London but I don't see, from a social distancing perspective why this should be the case. Am I missing something?Foxy said:
A little breathless, and tight chest, coughing again, but O2 sats OK, and still no fever.MarqueeMark said:
How are you doing today?Foxy said:
We do not know that chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine have been proven effective, though studies are ongoing. The Chinese study communicated yesterday showed no effect. In addition it can interfere with cardiac conduction, potentially an issue with COVID19 myocarditis. I appreciate there is a certain amount of levity in your comment, but would be cautious about the rush to judgement.Luckyguy1983 said:We know that social contact these days is out. We know that alcohol above 70% kills the virus. We know that hydroxychloroqin has proven an effective treatment in some cases and is a derivative of quinine. We now find out that lying on your front can stop you needing a ventilator. So really, the solution is to get sh*t-faced on maximum strength G&T, alone, and end up passing out face forward.
In terms of positioning, there is an interesting review of prone ventilation for ARDS here:
There are some benefits, and some downsides. The better oxygenation and reduced lung injury vs increased cardiac arrest.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4173887/
@GideonWise may be interested
Testing later. The view is that leaving it a couple of days after symptoms appear increases the chances of an accurate result. It shouldn't increase my self isolation or alter treatment in the short term.0 -
Keeping expenses the same in real terms is more expensive than reducing them in real terms, but far cheaper than compound increasing it in real terms.LostPassword said:
It depends if you're hoping to use inflation to reduce your costs, then having an outgoing index-linked stands in the way of that.Philip_Thompson said:
You're understanding it backwards.MarqueeMark said:
Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.paulyork64 said:
Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
The triple lock is doomed.
Increasing by the rate of inflation doesn't cost anything at all in real terms.
Increasing by 2.5% if inflation is extremely low is expensive in real terms.
The triple lock is more expensive in an era of low inflation than high inflation.0 -
It's like a shoit, but posh folk wear them *all the time*.Jonathan said:
What’s a shirt?RochdalePioneers said:
Double-cuff shirts are the only shirts. Lets have a bit of fucking decorumDecrepiterJohnL said:
With cufflinks like David Cameron or Jacob Rees-Mogg, or ordinary, buttoned single cuffs like our man-of-the-people, Eton and Oxford Prime Minister?RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed! And to bring some semblance of normality I am sat at my desk in a 3 piece suit. #dressupfridayLuckyguy1983 said:Morning all. Friday!
0 -
rottenborough said:
For how long? The public can't be eating that much more, and there must be a physical limit to most people's stockpiling.LostPassword said:One striking thing in this article is that, on a calorie basis, we're expecting supermarkets to increase their supply of food by more than 40%. That's big.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/millions-to-need-food-aid-in-days-as-virus-exposes-uk-supply
No, demand will stay high as long as people are at home. Before this, I would have got work lunches 5 days a week, and my daughters would have had lunch at school/nursery. We might have gone out for a meal every other week or so or ordered a takeaway.rottenborough said:
For how long? The public can't be eating that much more, and there must be a physical limit to most people's stockpiling.LostPassword said:One striking thing in this article is that, on a calorie basis, we're expecting supermarkets to increase their supply of food by more than 40%. That's big.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/millions-to-need-food-aid-in-days-as-virus-exposes-uk-supply
Now all of that needs to be done with home cooking, and will need to be until this is over.0 -
If inflation takes off then yes it ends as inflation will be the cap not 2.5% being the floor. Unless wages grow faster, in which case taxes will be going up too.MarqueeMark said:
But I'm looking forwards, not backwards.Philip_Thompson said:
You're understanding it backwards.MarqueeMark said:
Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.paulyork64 said:
Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
The triple lock is doomed.
Increasing by the rate of inflation doesn't cost anything at all in real terms.
Increasing by 2.5% if inflation is extremely low is expensive in real terms.
State pensioners have done very well for a decade out of the triple lock. That ends now.0 -
I heard rumours that some posh people are still wearing pants through this crisis.Malmesbury said:
It's like a shoit, but posh folk wear them *all the time*.Jonathan said:
What’s a shirt?RochdalePioneers said:
Double-cuff shirts are the only shirts. Lets have a bit of fucking decorumDecrepiterJohnL said:
With cufflinks like David Cameron or Jacob Rees-Mogg, or ordinary, buttoned single cuffs like our man-of-the-people, Eton and Oxford Prime Minister?RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed! And to bring some semblance of normality I am sat at my desk in a 3 piece suit. #dressupfridayLuckyguy1983 said:Morning all. Friday!
0 -
We had our board meeting yesterday by zoom (it was ok, rather too much of people talking over one another or awkward silences) and there was genuine uncertainty about how the furlough scheme was going to work, who was eligible etc. Apparently the employee has to be furloughed for at least 3 weeks. They can't do any proper work but they can still undertake training etc. We pay the employees wages and then claim this back. But so much is unclear.Jonathan said:
One of the fair criticisms of the government’s emergency response is that reality often doesn’t match the rhetoric. The details don’t follow or match the headline announcements. It was certainly the case with exams. It is the case on tests. Bailouts and benefits seem slow to materialise.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The comms over this antibody test is starting to piss me off. One day we hear it is just days away. Later same day there is a discussion of how must be absolutely sure it works before using it, so tests on going. Now it seems it is within two weeks away, but unsure whether wide public will have it at first.
Why don't they just say there may be such a test, it would really help, but we are still testing the test and will get back to you.0 -
Because Kay Burley will still be asking each hour, on the hour.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The comms over this antibody test is starting to piss me off. One day we hear it is just days away. Later same day there is a discussion of how must be absolutely sure it works before using it, so tests on going. Now it seems it is within two weeks away, but unsure whether wide public will have it at first.
Why don't they just say there may be such a test, it would really help, but we are still testing the test and will get back to you.1 -
Its not just that. Work from home + full fridges and cupboards means food gets eaten faster. Also these aren't normal times. People think they need to keep 14 days of food at home in stock at all times - so that means a lot of sizable top-up shops. The data is clear - more consumers making more trips and buying more on those trips. It has slowed down vs last week but its still way above anything normal.MaxPB said:
No, the issue is that 20-30% of our intake comes from eating out. Lunches, work canteens, nights out, pubs etc... All of this now has to be replaced by home cooking.rottenborough said:
For how long? The public can't be eating that much more, and there must be a physical limit to most people's stockpiling.LostPassword said:One striking thing in this article is that, on a calorie basis, we're expecting supermarkets to increase their supply of food by more than 40%. That's big.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/millions-to-need-food-aid-in-days-as-virus-exposes-uk-supply0 -
In other news, the LibDems have postponed their leadership election until 2021.
From a betting perspective I reckon this makes Davey a good bet: he'll effectively have been doing the job for over a year and may well be a shoo-in when the vote eventually comes. Currently 2.3 on BFE.0 -
Yes, time to remove the inflation link and set the minimum increase to 1%. Pensioners need to take the weight of this. I'd also look at NI on pension income.MarqueeMark said:
But I'm looking forwards, not backwards.Philip_Thompson said:
You're understanding it backwards.MarqueeMark said:
Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.paulyork64 said:
Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
The triple lock is doomed.
Increasing by the rate of inflation doesn't cost anything at all in real terms.
Increasing by 2.5% if inflation is extremely low is expensive in real terms.
State pensioners have done very well for a decade out of the triple lock. That ends now.2 -
We pensioners are goona get fuck all help in terms of who hets medical help if we get covid.. leave our effing pensions alone!!MarqueeMark said:
But I'm looking forwards, not backwards.Philip_Thompson said:
You're understanding it backwards.MarqueeMark said:
Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.paulyork64 said:
Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
The triple lock is doomed.
Increasing by the rate of inflation doesn't cost anything at all in real terms.
Increasing by 2.5% if inflation is extremely low is expensive in real terms.
State pensioners have done very well for a decade out of the triple lock. That ends now.1 -
Not a chance. Unless it was announced now, during the most intense panic, people will go nuts about losing perks like the triple lock once the crisis has ebbed. Doesnt matter inflation is coming, it'll be 'I was at risk and people i knew died, and now you're punishing me for surviving?'. There will always be other changes to be made instead.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
Same with other measures - ideas need floating now to get some agreement evening detail must be later (given we dont know how much impact there will be).0 -
The mooted mechanism is through mediating the inflammatory response to the virus, and possibly boosting host virucidal response.OldKingCole said:
Have to say that. although I'm obviously out of date now, I don't see HOW chloroquine could work on a virus and agree with Dr F that there could be cardiac problems. There's also the possibility, according to the BNF, of ophthalmic problems, although it probably has to be used for a while to get those.Foxy said:
We do not know that chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine have been proven effective, though studies are ongoing. The Chinese study communicated yesterday showed no effect. In addition it can interfere with cardiac conduction, potentially an issue with COVID19 myocarditis. I appreciate there is a certain amount of levity in your comment, but would be cautious about the rush to judgement.Luckyguy1983 said:We know that social contact these days is out. We know that alcohol above 70% kills the virus. We know that hydroxychloroqin has proven an effective treatment in some cases and is a derivative of quinine. We now find out that lying on your front can stop you needing a ventilator. So really, the solution is to get sh*t-faced on maximum strength G&T, alone, and end up passing out face forward.
In terms of positioning, there is an interesting review of prone ventilation for ARDS here:
There are some benefits, and some downsides. The better oxygenation and reduced lung injury vs increased cardiac arrest.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4173887/
@GideonWise may be interested
Eye problems are with long term use generally, but there are cases of acute toxicity. It is a problem in Africa, where the response to a fever is to think it a flare up of malaria, and swallow a handful of chloroquine from the market.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/insane-many-scientists-lament-trump-s-embrace-risky-malaria-drugs-coronavirus0 -
I think there a number of basic problems. One is that people have changed how they eat (e.g. home rather than restaurant), so the supply chain has to be reconfigured to support this. Secondly, the absences from work and social distancing rules are bound to impact the efficiency of supply lines. Then, further into the future, we have problems in production such as lack of availability of seasonal labour for harvesting, etc.rottenborough said:
For how long? The public can't be eating that much more, and there must be a physical limit to most people's stockpiling.LostPassword said:One striking thing in this article is that, on a calorie basis, we're expecting supermarkets to increase their supply of food by more than 40%. That's big.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/millions-to-need-food-aid-in-days-as-virus-exposes-uk-supply
Probably best not to run down that food stash quite yet!0 -
The peak would have been much later outside London, if nothing had been done, since it takes time for widespread infection to gather pace, and clearly London is running ahead.ABZ said:
Fingers crossed for you, Foxy. A question that has puzzled me a bit - clearly London is running a bit ahead of the rest of the country but, since we slammed on the brakes at the same rate everywhere, does it not follow that the peak will take place at the same time everywhere, just with a lower amplitude outside London? I've heard several colleagues say that the peak will be deferred (i.e., later) outside London but I don't see, from a social distancing perspective why this should be the case. Am I missing something?Foxy said:
A little breathless, and tight chest, coughing again, but O2 sats OK, and still no fever.MarqueeMark said:
How are you doing today?Foxy said:
We do not know that chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine have been proven effective, though studies are ongoing. The Chinese study communicated yesterday showed no effect. In addition it can interfere with cardiac conduction, potentially an issue with COVID19 myocarditis. I appreciate there is a certain amount of levity in your comment, but would be cautious about the rush to judgement.Luckyguy1983 said:We know that social contact these days is out. We know that alcohol above 70% kills the virus. We know that hydroxychloroqin has proven an effective treatment in some cases and is a derivative of quinine. We now find out that lying on your front can stop you needing a ventilator. So really, the solution is to get sh*t-faced on maximum strength G&T, alone, and end up passing out face forward.
In terms of positioning, there is an interesting review of prone ventilation for ARDS here:
There are some benefits, and some downsides. The better oxygenation and reduced lung injury vs increased cardiac arrest.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4173887/
@GideonWise may be interested
Testing later. The view is that leaving it a couple of days after symptoms appear increases the chances of an accurate result. It shouldn't increase my self isolation or alter treatment in the short term.
You might be right if the lockdown is 100% effective, since in a fortnight all new infection would stop, everywhere.
But since the lockdown will actually be X% effective, where X is considerably short of 100%, the reality will be inbetween, and London will still peak first.0 -
Rishi has a lot of capital. He is going to have to spend it.kle4 said:
Not a chance. Unless it was announced now, during the most intense panic, people will go nuts about losing perks like the triple lock once the crisis has ebbed. Doesnt matter inflation is coming, it'll be 'I was at risk and people i knew died, and now you're punishing me for surviving?'. There will always be other changes to be made instead.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
Same with other measures - ideas need floating now to get some agreement evening detail must be later (given we dont know how much impact there will be).
Sorry, pensioners. The next few years are going to be about improving the efficacy of the economically active.3 -
Breaking
HMG to house via LA's all rough sleepers by the weekend2 -
Very good article on the efforts to find a vaccine:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/inside-the-race-to-develop-a-coronavirus-vaccine-covid-190 -
Both of them.MarqueeMark said:
Rishi has a lot of capital. He is going to have to spend it.kle4 said:
Not a chance. Unless it was announced now, during the most intense panic, people will go nuts about losing perks like the triple lock once the crisis has ebbed. Doesnt matter inflation is coming, it'll be 'I was at risk and people i knew died, and now you're punishing me for surviving?'. There will always be other changes to be made instead.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
Same with other measures - ideas need floating now to get some agreement evening detail must be later (given we dont know how much impact there will be).
Sorry, pensioners. The next few years are going to be about improving the efficacy of the economically active.0 -
Indeed I went to the supermarket for the first time since lockdown last night. It was eerie with the social distancing regulations in force. Our stocks were very low at home which is why I went shopping but now I've got stuff in my children are already eager to eat the snacks that we now have.RochdalePioneers said:
Its not just that. Work from home + full fridges and cupboards means food gets eaten faster. Also these aren't normal times. People think they need to keep 14 days of food at home in stock at all times - so that means a lot of sizable top-up shops. The data is clear - more consumers making more trips and buying more on those trips. It has slowed down vs last week but its still way above anything normal.MaxPB said:
No, the issue is that 20-30% of our intake comes from eating out. Lunches, work canteens, nights out, pubs etc... All of this now has to be replaced by home cooking.rottenborough said:
For how long? The public can't be eating that much more, and there must be a physical limit to most people's stockpiling.LostPassword said:One striking thing in this article is that, on a calorie basis, we're expecting supermarkets to increase their supply of food by more than 40%. That's big.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/millions-to-need-food-aid-in-days-as-virus-exposes-uk-supply
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/food/nation-incapable-of-not-eating-stockpiled-food-202003231948000 -
That's what should happen. What will happen remains to be seen.MarqueeMark said:
Rishi has a lot of capital. He is going to have to spend it.kle4 said:
Not a chance. Unless it was announced now, during the most intense panic, people will go nuts about losing perks like the triple lock once the crisis has ebbed. Doesnt matter inflation is coming, it'll be 'I was at risk and people i knew died, and now you're punishing me for surviving?'. There will always be other changes to be made instead.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
Same with other measures - ideas need floating now to get some agreement evening detail must be later (given we dont know how much impact there will be).
Sorry, pensioners. The next few years are going to be about improving the efficacy of the economically active.
But I agree we cant stay in a world where everything on offer to working age people is relentlessly cut back, whereas pensioners only need to write a few letters and the most modest cutback in their perks is immediately shelved.0 -
Pretty much what the lady said yesterday or the day before at the PC.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The comms over this antibody test is starting to piss me off. One day we hear it is just days away. Later same day there is a discussion of how must be absolutely sure it works before using it, so tests on going. Now it seems it is within two weeks away, but unsure whether wide public will have it at first.
Why don't they just say there may be such a test, it would really help, but we are still testing the test and will get back to you.0 -
Except that's not the case. We've trashed the economy to keep over 70s alive. The correct decision, of course, but it's only fair that the group who have benefited from it make the largest contribution to getting the nation back on its feet.squareroot2 said:
We pensioners are goona get fuck all help in terms of who hets medical help if we get covid.. leave our effing pensions alone!!MarqueeMark said:
But I'm looking forwards, not backwards.Philip_Thompson said:
You're understanding it backwards.MarqueeMark said:
Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.paulyork64 said:
Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
The triple lock is doomed.
Increasing by the rate of inflation doesn't cost anything at all in real terms.
Increasing by 2.5% if inflation is extremely low is expensive in real terms.
State pensioners have done very well for a decade out of the triple lock. That ends now.0 -
What's that going to do to all the Corbynites demanding Labour's leadership election be postponed?IanB2 said:In other news, the LibDems have postponed their leadership election until 2021.
From a betting perspective I reckon this makes Davey a good bet: he'll effectively have been doing the job for over a year and may well be a shoo-in when the vote eventually comes. Currently 2.3 on BFE.0 -
I wear double cuffs in court but I can't say that I have ever done that. And a waistcoat, striped trousers, tails, a white bow tie, wing collar and a horsehair wig. I look like a total prat tbh. Thankfully the courts are starting to restrict this nonsense to proofs (civil trials). Can't have the general public knowing we are actually relatively normal in reality.IanB2 said:
Decorum? Aren't they so you can wipe your nose on the cuff and then fold it back with the debris inside. An innovation from Napoleonic France.RochdalePioneers said:
Double-cuff shirts are the only shirts. Lets have a bit of fucking decorumDecrepiterJohnL said:
With cufflinks like David Cameron or Jacob Rees-Mogg, or ordinary, buttoned single cuffs like our man-of-the-people, Eton and Oxford Prime Minister?RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed! And to bring some semblance of normality I am sat at my desk in a 3 piece suit. #dressupfridayLuckyguy1983 said:Morning all. Friday!
0 -
My first reaction was “where?” But then I realised Buckingham Palace is currently empty...Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking
HMG to house via LA's all rough sleepers by the weekend1 -
It has to be all about him. Still not long now to the 4th AprilRochdalePioneers said:This has probably already been posted, but WTAF?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/12432847849038315540 -
My 3 button cuff, Sea Island quality Turnbull & Asser sniffs condescendingly..RochdalePioneers said:
Double-cuff shirts are the only shirts. Lets have a bit of fucking decorumDecrepiterJohnL said:
With cufflinks like David Cameron or Jacob Rees-Mogg, or ordinary, buttoned single cuffs like our man-of-the-people, Eton and Oxford Prime Minister?RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed! And to bring some semblance of normality I am sat at my desk in a 3 piece suit. #dressupfridayLuckyguy1983 said:Morning all. Friday!
0 -
One hesitates to ask why it really took the virus for this to happen. Still, onward and upward.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking
HMG to house via LA's all rough sleepers by the weekend0 -
That's true, but it could still be too expensive with high inflation. We saw this to a limited extent during the Coalition years when pay increases were below inflation, which ultimately has an impact on the tax take to support index-linked pensions.Philip_Thompson said:
Keeping expenses the same in real terms is more expensive than reducing them in real terms, but far cheaper than compound increasing it in real terms.LostPassword said:
It depends if you're hoping to use inflation to reduce your costs, then having an outgoing index-linked stands in the way of that.Philip_Thompson said:
You're understanding it backwards.MarqueeMark said:
Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.paulyork64 said:
Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
The triple lock is doomed.
Increasing by the rate of inflation doesn't cost anything at all in real terms.
Increasing by 2.5% if inflation is extremely low is expensive in real terms.
The triple lock is more expensive in an era of low inflation than high inflation.0 -
Your shirt looks down on you ?Theuniondivvie said:
My 3 button cuff, Sea Island quality Turnbull & Asser sniffs condescendingly..RochdalePioneers said:
Double-cuff shirts are the only shirts. Lets have a bit of fucking decorumDecrepiterJohnL said:
With cufflinks like David Cameron or Jacob Rees-Mogg, or ordinary, buttoned single cuffs like our man-of-the-people, Eton and Oxford Prime Minister?RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed! And to bring some semblance of normality I am sat at my desk in a 3 piece suit. #dressupfridayLuckyguy1983 said:Morning all. Friday!
0 -
Surely he is the only sensible option for them so probably the not so fragrant Layla will winIanB2 said:In other news, the LibDems have postponed their leadership election until 2021.
From a betting perspective I reckon this makes Davey a good bet: he'll effectively have been doing the job for over a year and may well be a shoo-in when the vote eventually comes. Currently 2.3 on BFE.
0 -
I think you are right. I also think a lot of the "panic buying" was people trying to get 3 month of shopping done.RochdalePioneers said:
Its not just that. Work from home + full fridges and cupboards means food gets eaten faster. Also these aren't normal times. People think they need to keep 14 days of food at home in stock at all times - so that means a lot of sizable top-up shops. The data is clear - more consumers making more trips and buying more on those trips. It has slowed down vs last week but its still way above anything normal.MaxPB said:
No, the issue is that 20-30% of our intake comes from eating out. Lunches, work canteens, nights out, pubs etc... All of this now has to be replaced by home cooking.rottenborough said:
For how long? The public can't be eating that much more, and there must be a physical limit to most people's stockpiling.LostPassword said:One striking thing in this article is that, on a calorie basis, we're expecting supermarkets to increase their supply of food by more than 40%. That's big.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/millions-to-need-food-aid-in-days-as-virus-exposes-uk-supply
One chap I know has confessed that his actions were - Put the junk in the garage on the council tip. Buy shelves. Buy a chest freezer. Buy a bread maker. Fill shelves and chest freezer.
0 -
Yes, I would expect the peak to be near simultaneous across the country, but lower in amplitude in less affected areas too.ABZ said:
Fingers crossed for you, Foxy. A question that has puzzled me a bit - clearly London is running a bit ahead of the rest of the country but, since we slammed on the brakes at the same rate everywhere, does it not follow that the peak will take place at the same time everywhere, just with a lower amplitude outside London? I've heard several colleagues say that the peak will be deferred (i.e., later) outside London but I don't see, from a social distancing perspective why this should be the case. Am I missing something?Foxy said:
A little breathless, and tight chest, coughing again, but O2 sats OK, and still no fever.MarqueeMark said:
How are you doing today?Foxy said:
We do not know that chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine have been proven effective, though studies are ongoing. The Chinese study communicated yesterday showed no effect. In addition it can interfere with cardiac conduction, potentially an issue with COVID19 myocarditis. I appreciate there is a certain amount of levity in your comment, but would be cautious about the rush to judgement.Luckyguy1983 said:We know that social contact these days is out. We know that alcohol above 70% kills the virus. We know that hydroxychloroqin has proven an effective treatment in some cases and is a derivative of quinine. We now find out that lying on your front can stop you needing a ventilator. So really, the solution is to get sh*t-faced on maximum strength G&T, alone, and end up passing out face forward.
In terms of positioning, there is an interesting review of prone ventilation for ARDS here:
There are some benefits, and some downsides. The better oxygenation and reduced lung injury vs increased cardiac arrest.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4173887/
@GideonWise may be interested
Testing later. The view is that leaving it a couple of days after symptoms appear increases the chances of an accurate result. It shouldn't increase my self isolation or alter treatment in the short term.
There may well be patchy peaks reflecting local variation, such as a big outbreak in large nursing home etc.
I think the problem in Leicester is not yet overwhelming numbers (we reported 9 fatalities in total yesterday, for a population of a million) but more the numbers of staff needing to self isolate, including myself.0 -
Agreed. That is going to require the Boris and Rishi show to be at their salesmen best.....because it is their core vote who have to lose out.MaxPB said:
Except that's not the case. We've trashed the economy to keep over 70s alive. The correct decision, of course, but it's only fair that the group who have benefited from it make the largest contribution to getting the nation back on its feet.squareroot2 said:
We pensioners are goona get fuck all help in terms of who hets medical help if we get covid.. leave our effing pensions alone!!MarqueeMark said:
But I'm looking forwards, not backwards.Philip_Thompson said:
You're understanding it backwards.MarqueeMark said:
Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.paulyork64 said:
Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
The triple lock is doomed.
Increasing by the rate of inflation doesn't cost anything at all in real terms.
Increasing by 2.5% if inflation is extremely low is expensive in real terms.
State pensioners have done very well for a decade out of the triple lock. That ends now.0 -
The peak would have been much later outside London, if nothing had been done, since it takes time for widespread infection to gather pace, and clearly London is running ahead.IanB2 said:ABZ said:
Fingers crossed for you, Foxy. A question that has puzzled me a bit - clearly London is running a bit ahead of the rest of the country but, since we slammed on the brakes at the same rate everywhere, does it not follow that the peak will take place at the same time everywhere, just with a lower amplitude outside London? I've heard several colleagues say that the peak will be deferred (i.e., later) outside London but I don't see, from a social distancing perspective why this should be the case. Am I missing something?Foxy said:
A little breathless, and tight chest, coughing again, but O2 sats OK, and still no fever.MarqueeMark said:
How are you doing today?Foxy said:
We do not know that chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine have been proven effective, though studies are ongoing. The Chinese study communicated yesterday showed no effect. In addition it can interfere with cardiac conduction, potentially an issue with COVID19 myocarditis. I appreciate there is a certain amount of levity in your comment, but would be cautious about the rush to judgement.Luckyguy1983 said:We know that social contact these days is out. We know that alcohol above 70% kills the virus. We know that hydroxychloroqin has proven an effective treatment in some cases and is a derivative of quinine. We now find out that lying on your front can stop you needing a ventilator. So really, the solution is to get sh*t-faced on maximum strength G&T, alone, and end up passing out face forward.
In terms of positioning, there is an interesting review of prone ventilation for ARDS here:
There are some benefits, and some downsides. The better oxygenation and reduced lung injury vs increased cardiac arrest.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4173887/
@GideonWise may be interested
Testing later. The view is that leaving it a couple of days after symptoms appear increases the chances of an accurate result. It shouldn't increase my self isolation or alter treatment in the short term.
You might be right if the lockdown is 100% effective, since in a fortnight all new infection would stop, everywhere.
But since the lockdown will actually be X% effective, where X is considerably short of 100%, the reality will be inbetween, and London will still peak first.
I'm not sure I follow.
The peak amplitude depends upon the number of individuals infected at the point when a lockdown begins, with the time until the peak arises depending only upon when lockdown starts (in principle). Once lockdown begins, if it is equally effective across the country, a subset of those infected prior to lockdown will display serious symptoms between 1 and 21 days after lockdown (peaking around day 14 but with a plateau in the middle) and a subset will be able to spread the virus to others (e.g., family members) giving a tail of cases.
But in any event, the timing of the peak should be consistent everywhere. Indeed, since I suspect lockdown is less effective in London (e.g., the tube still functioning) I would not be so surprised if they peak after (or certainly have a longer plateau) than other parts of the country.
Does that make sense?
0 -
I am pretty comfortably off wrt pension income and I think the triple lock has been very useful but yes it's not sustainable.kle4 said:
Not a chance. Unless it was announced now, during the most intense panic, people will go nuts about losing perks like the triple lock once the crisis has ebbed. Doesnt matter inflation is coming, it'll be 'I was at risk and people i knew died, and now you're punishing me for surviving?'. There will always be other changes to be made instead.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
Same with other measures - ideas need floating now to get some agreement evening detail must be later (given we dont know how much impact there will be).0 -
Pick battles that matter.MaxPB said:
Yes, time to remove the inflation link and set the minimum increase to 1%. Pensioners need to take the weight of this. I'd also look at NI on pension income.MarqueeMark said:
But I'm looking forwards, not backwards.Philip_Thompson said:
You're understanding it backwards.MarqueeMark said:
Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.paulyork64 said:
Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
The triple lock is doomed.
Increasing by the rate of inflation doesn't cost anything at all in real terms.
Increasing by 2.5% if inflation is extremely low is expensive in real terms.
State pensioners have done very well for a decade out of the triple lock. That ends now.
If inflation is going to be higher then 1% or 2.5% is immaterial, no money will be saved by making that change.
If inflation is the cap then no money is gained by pensioners in real terms by keeping pensions in line with inflation.
Merging NI with Income Tax will be a massive tax hike and will bring a lot of money into the Exchequer. It also won't violate the manifesto.0 -
I dont think he or Boris have the balls for that. Its not even a criticism of them, I do not think any politician would. In general that is - some individual measures will happen, but I think it'll be a huge problem always put off for another day in the hope something will come up and it'll be someone else's problem.MarqueeMark said:
Rishi has a lot of capital. He is going to have to spend it.kle4 said:
Not a chance. Unless it was announced now, during the most intense panic, people will go nuts about losing perks like the triple lock once the crisis has ebbed. Doesnt matter inflation is coming, it'll be 'I was at risk and people i knew died, and now you're punishing me for surviving?'. There will always be other changes to be made instead.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
Same with other measures - ideas need floating now to get some agreement evening detail must be later (given we dont know how much impact there will be).
Sorry, pensioners. The next few years are going to be about improving the efficacy of the economically active.
Hopefully I am wrong as it needs thinking about now.1 -
Cynically, it is somewhat easier as a task when the borders are effectively closed to anyone wanting to take advantage....DavidL said:
One hesitates to ask why it really took the virus for this to happen. Still, onward and upward.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking
HMG to house via LA's all rough sleepers by the weekend0 -
It's the generations of snobby tailors - the echos of their curled lips and condescending silences are carefully coated into the fabric as part of the process of making the shirt.Nigelb said:
Your shirt looks down on you ?Theuniondivvie said:
My 3 button cuff, Sea Island quality Turnbull & Asser sniffs condescendingly..RochdalePioneers said:
Double-cuff shirts are the only shirts. Lets have a bit of fucking decorumDecrepiterJohnL said:
With cufflinks like David Cameron or Jacob Rees-Mogg, or ordinary, buttoned single cuffs like our man-of-the-people, Eton and Oxford Prime Minister?RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed! And to bring some semblance of normality I am sat at my desk in a 3 piece suit. #dressupfridayLuckyguy1983 said:Morning all. Friday!
1 -
Unless it says to be ready next week I'd take away the 'very good'!Nigelb said:Very good article on the efforts to find a vaccine:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/inside-the-race-to-develop-a-coronavirus-vaccine-covid-190 -
Clean ones for the real poshos.Jonathan said:
I heard rumours that some posh people are still wearing pants through this crisis.Malmesbury said:
It's like a shoit, but posh folk wear them *all the time*.Jonathan said:
What’s a shirt?RochdalePioneers said:
Double-cuff shirts are the only shirts. Lets have a bit of fucking decorumDecrepiterJohnL said:
With cufflinks like David Cameron or Jacob Rees-Mogg, or ordinary, buttoned single cuffs like our man-of-the-people, Eton and Oxford Prime Minister?RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed! And to bring some semblance of normality I am sat at my desk in a 3 piece suit. #dressupfridayLuckyguy1983 said:Morning all. Friday!
0 -
I think that "another day" has arrived.kle4 said:
I dont think he or Boris have the balls for that. Its not even a criticism of them, I do not think any politician would. In general that is - some individual measures will happen, but I think it'll be a huge problem always put off for another day in the hope something will come up and it'll be someone else's problem.MarqueeMark said:
Rishi has a lot of capital. He is going to have to spend it.kle4 said:
Not a chance. Unless it was announced now, during the most intense panic, people will go nuts about losing perks like the triple lock once the crisis has ebbed. Doesnt matter inflation is coming, it'll be 'I was at risk and people i knew died, and now you're punishing me for surviving?'. There will always be other changes to be made instead.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
Same with other measures - ideas need floating now to get some agreement evening detail must be later (given we dont know how much impact there will be).
Sorry, pensioners. The next few years are going to be about improving the efficacy of the economically active.
Hopefully I am wrong as it needs thinking about now.1 -
As I predicted.squareroot2 said:
We pensioners are goona get fuck all help in terms of who hets medical help if we get covid.. leave our effing pensions alone!!MarqueeMark said:
But I'm looking forwards, not backwards.Philip_Thompson said:
You're understanding it backwards.MarqueeMark said:
Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.paulyork64 said:
Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
The triple lock is doomed.
Increasing by the rate of inflation doesn't cost anything at all in real terms.
Increasing by 2.5% if inflation is extremely low is expensive in real terms.
State pensioners have done very well for a decade out of the triple lock. That ends now.5 -
It probably does tbh. Definitely feels like it's doing me a favour by letting me wear it.Nigelb said:
Your shirt looks down on you ?Theuniondivvie said:
My 3 button cuff, Sea Island quality Turnbull & Asser sniffs condescendingly..RochdalePioneers said:
Double-cuff shirts are the only shirts. Lets have a bit of fucking decorumDecrepiterJohnL said:
With cufflinks like David Cameron or Jacob Rees-Mogg, or ordinary, buttoned single cuffs like our man-of-the-people, Eton and Oxford Prime Minister?RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed! And to bring some semblance of normality I am sat at my desk in a 3 piece suit. #dressupfridayLuckyguy1983 said:Morning all. Friday!
0 -
Because that wouldn't make a pennies difference to the Exchequer and isn't enough to pay for it.Socky said:
Why not add employer's NI to individual NI, re-name it National Health Insurance, and then hypothecate it to health and social care?IanB2 said:
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether?0 -
Correcting the blockquotes...not really. You still appear to be assuming the lockdown is 100% effective.ABZ said:
I'm not sure I follow.IanB2 said:
The peak would have been much later outside London, if nothing had been done, since it takes time for widespread infection to gather pace, and clearly London is running ahead.ABZ said:
Fingers crossed for you, Foxy. A question that has puzzled me a bit - clearly London is running a bit ahead of the rest of the country but, since we slammed on the brakes at the same rate everywhere, does it not follow that the peak will take place at the same time everywhere, just with a lower amplitude outside London? I've heard several colleagues say that the peak will be deferred (i.e., later) outside London but I don't see, from a social distancing perspective why this should be the case. Am I missing something?Foxy said:
A little breathless, and tight chest, coughing again, but O2 sats OK, and still no fever.MarqueeMark said:
How are you doing today?Foxy said:
We do not know that chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine have been proven effective, though studies are ongoing. The Chinese study communicated yesterday showed no effect. In addition it can interfere with cardiac conduction, potentially an issue with COVID19 myocarditis. I appreciate there is a certain amount of levity in your comment, but would be cautious about the rush to judgement.Luckyguy1983 said:We know that social contact these days is out. We know that alcohol above 70% kills the virus. We know that hydroxychloroqin has proven an effective treatment in some cases and is a derivative of quinine. We now find out that lying on your front can stop you needing a ventilator. So really, the solution is to get sh*t-faced on maximum strength G&T, alone, and end up passing out face forward.
In terms of positioning, there is an interesting review of prone ventilation for ARDS here:
There are some benefits, and some downsides. The better oxygenation and reduced lung injury vs increased cardiac arrest.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4173887/
@GideonWise may be interested
Testing later. The view is that leaving it a couple of days after symptoms appear increases the chances of an accurate result. It shouldn't increase my self isolation or alter treatment in the short term.
You might be right if the lockdown is 100% effective, since in a fortnight all new infection would stop, everywhere.
But since the lockdown will actually be X% effective, where X is considerably short of 100%, the reality will be inbetween, and London will still peak first.
The peak amplitude depends upon the number of individuals infected at the point when a lockdown begins, with the time until the peak arises depending only upon when lockdown starts (in principle). Once lockdown begins, if it is equally effective across the country, a subset of those infected prior to lockdown will display serious symptoms between 1 and 21 days after lockdown (peaking around day 14 but with a plateau in the middle) and a subset will be able to spread the virus to others (e.g., family members) giving a tail of cases.
But in any event, the timing of the peak should be consistent everywhere. Indeed, since I suspect lockdown is less effective in London (e.g., the tube still functioning) I would not be so surprised if they peak after (or certainly have a longer plateau) than other parts of the country.
Does that make sense?
If 90% of people took no notice and carried on as normal, quite obviously the effect of the lockdown would be minimal.
If 10% carry on as normal, it would be much more effective. But, given the larger number of people already infected in London, the 10% sneaking out will spread the infection more quickly - and bring it back to their families - than in the rest of the country. Although at 10% this would be marginal.
0 -
Being an unutterable scruff gives me the advantage of looking down on my clothes.Theuniondivvie said:
It probably does tbh. Definitely feels like it's doing me a favour by letting me wear it.Nigelb said:
Your shirt looks down on you ?Theuniondivvie said:
My 3 button cuff, Sea Island quality Turnbull & Asser sniffs condescendingly..RochdalePioneers said:
Double-cuff shirts are the only shirts. Lets have a bit of fucking decorumDecrepiterJohnL said:
With cufflinks like David Cameron or Jacob Rees-Mogg, or ordinary, buttoned single cuffs like our man-of-the-people, Eton and Oxford Prime Minister?RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed! And to bring some semblance of normality I am sat at my desk in a 3 piece suit. #dressupfridayLuckyguy1983 said:Morning all. Friday!
1 -
I dont disagree. But 4 months from now, 6 months from now, I doubt most people will. In theory, yes. But any actual proposals?MarqueeMark said:
I think that "another day" has arrived.kle4 said:
I dont think he or Boris have the balls for that. Its not even a criticism of them, I do not think any politician would. In general that is - some individual measures will happen, but I think it'll be a huge problem always put off for another day in the hope something will come up and it'll be someone else's problem.MarqueeMark said:
Rishi has a lot of capital. He is going to have to spend it.kle4 said:
Not a chance. Unless it was announced now, during the most intense panic, people will go nuts about losing perks like the triple lock once the crisis has ebbed. Doesnt matter inflation is coming, it'll be 'I was at risk and people i knew died, and now you're punishing me for surviving?'. There will always be other changes to be made instead.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
Same with other measures - ideas need floating now to get some agreement evening detail must be later (given we dont know how much impact there will be).
Sorry, pensioners. The next few years are going to be about improving the efficacy of the economically active.
Hopefully I am wrong as it needs thinking about now.0 -
You think that if the severity and death rate of this virus were the same for everyone as it appears to be for, say, forty year olds, the entire population would be hiding indoors for a month while the whole economy goes to ruin? We don't do any of this for normal flu, which kills thousands every year.squareroot2 said:
We pensioners are goona get fuck all help in terms of who hets medical help if we get covid.. leave our effing pensions alone!!MarqueeMark said:
But I'm looking forwards, not backwards.Philip_Thompson said:
You're understanding it backwards.MarqueeMark said:
Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.paulyork64 said:
Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
The triple lock is doomed.
Increasing by the rate of inflation doesn't cost anything at all in real terms.
Increasing by 2.5% if inflation is extremely low is expensive in real terms.
State pensioners have done very well for a decade out of the triple lock. That ends now.
We're only doing this because it hits the elderly more severely.
0 -
Sadly, no. (Though a few vaccines are ready to go into clinical trials.)felix said:
Unless it says to be ready next week I'd take away the 'very good'!Nigelb said:Very good article on the efforts to find a vaccine:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/inside-the-race-to-develop-a-coronavirus-vaccine-covid-19
Trials take time... and aren't easy:
Among the peculiarities of this pandemic, moreover, is the fact that we, the general populace, might determine how well human trials go. If huge swathes of society become infected before the vaccine is ready to test on humans, the trials will be difficult to conduct, said Sarah Gilbert, an immunologist at the University of Oxford’s Edward Jenner Institute for Vaccine Research. Gilbert’s team also has a vaccine candidate for Covid-19, based on an earlier vaccine it had devised for Middle East respiratory syndrome, or Mers, another coronavirus disease. In mid-March, Gilbert had to put an auto-response on her email. When her team was ready to recruit subjects for vaccine trials, it would be advertised on the website, she wrote. “Please do not contact me about volunteering.”
Gilbert’s worry is that, at the peak of infection, the virus will be bouncing so frantically around the population that “you can’t screen your volunteers. By the time you get their results back, they may have been exposed.” Organising trials after the peak subsides presents another problem, because so many people will have cultivated a natural immunity by then. Transmission will have dropped as well, Gilbert said – it’s hard to know how well a vaccine trial is going if the subjects aren’t being exposed to the virus at all. “This is herd immunity – good for the population, but it makes testing a vaccine more difficult,” she explained.
The best possible scenario involves delaying the pandemic’s peak – pushing it through the summer towards August, to buy scientists a few extra months to run their trials. “So we’d really be pleased,” Gilbert said sternly, “if everyone will just do what they’re being told and stay at home.”...1 -
What I think we are seeing in response to this virus is a change in the collective mindset towards, well, collectivism. We are (nearly) all much more conscious that we are affected by the behaviour of others and likewise them with us. We are more willing to recognise that, for example, people should not be penalised for doing the right thing and that society collectively needs to bail them out. We are (or at least I am) more aware of how many vulnerable people there are in our society and how important it is to help them.
Will we ever go back to people waiting weeks for their benefits and a vicious sanctions regime? Surely not.
If we can house the homeless now why the hell did we not do it years ago?
If the economy can sustain whateverittakes economics what were the arguments about relatively modest differences in public spending about?
After WW2 the country threw out Churchill and elected a Labour government who transformed our society, mainly for the good. I can see such a leftward swing happening again. I wonder if our ever flexible Boris and the clever Rishi just might be able to harness it as the Tory party reinvents itself once again.5 -
Doesn't the percentage of immune people locally come into the formula ?ABZ said:
A question that has puzzled me a bit - clearly London is running a bit ahead of the rest of the country but, since we slammed on the brakes at the same rate everywhere, does it not follow that the peak will take place at the same time everywhere, just with a lower amplitude outside London? I've heard several colleagues say that the peak will be deferred (i.e., later) outside London but I don't see, from a social distancing perspective why this should be the case. Am I missing something?
0 -
Just gone on my Sky app and Sky are allowing you to suspend the Sky Sports package with immediate effect but still allow access to their sport channels.
They will re-instate the charge when sport becomes active again
Fair play to Sky1 -
Is it automatic or do we need to apply for it?Big_G_NorthWales said:Just gone on my Sky app and Sky are allowing you to suspend the Sky Sports package with immediate effect but still allow access to their sport channels.
They will re-instate the charge when sport becomes active again
Fair play to Sky0 -
I read reference to o2 levels. Is it worth getting an o2 device and what would one be looking for in terms of appropriate oxygen levels? Any device recommendations? Do they have wider uses beyond this crisis?0
-
That was my uneducated understanding. Peak was when you reached the top of the curve and this occurred when the virus was running out of targets reducing the rate of spread. If you restrict too soon then there will still be plenty of targets for any remaining virus once the restrictions come off. It comes back to the same question: have the east Asians merely deferred pain or have they avoided it?Socky said:
Doesn't the percentage of immune people locally come into the formula ?ABZ said:
A question that has puzzled me a bit - clearly London is running a bit ahead of the rest of the country but, since we slammed on the brakes at the same rate everywhere, does it not follow that the peak will take place at the same time everywhere, just with a lower amplitude outside London? I've heard several colleagues say that the peak will be deferred (i.e., later) outside London but I don't see, from a social distancing perspective why this should be the case. Am I missing something?0 -
That might the hardest of the 3 to get rid of. But if inflation stays steady above 2.5% it could be a good time to ditch that as the minimum, and maybe the earnings link too.MarqueeMark said:
Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.paulyork64 said:
Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
The triple lock is doomed.
1 -
My reason for suggesting a move to hypothecation is that you could then increase the NHI without the people paying suspecting they were funding general expenditure.Philip_Thompson said:
Because that wouldn't make a pennies difference to the Exchequer and isn't enough to pay for it.Socky said:
Why not add employer's NI to individual NI, re-name it National Health Insurance, and then hypothecate it to health and social care?
Nurses not diversity officers as the Sun might say.
0 -
Why bother though, unless you're expecting inflation to fall again too?paulyork64 said:
That might the hardest of the 3 to get rid of. But if inflation stays steady above 2.5% it could be a good time to ditch that as the minimum, and maybe the earnings link too.MarqueeMark said:
Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.paulyork64 said:
Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
The triple lock is doomed.0 -
Yes, I would expect the peak to be near simultaneous across the country, but lower in amplitude in less affected areas too.Foxy said:ABZ said:
Fingers crossed for you, Foxy. A question that has puzzled me a bit - clearly London is running a bit ahead of the rest of the country but, since we slammed on the brakes at the same rate everywhere, does it not follow that the peak will take place at the same time everywhere, just with a lower amplitude outside London? I've heard several colleagues say that the peak will be deferred (i.e., later) outside London but I don't see, from a social distancing perspective why this should be the case. Am I missing something?Foxy said:
A little breathless, and tight chest, coughing again, but O2 sats OK, and still no fever.MarqueeMark said:
How are you doing today?Foxy said:
We do not know that chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine have been proven effective, though studies are ongoing. The Chinese study communicated yesterday showed no effect. In addition it can interfere with cardiac conduction, potentially an issue with COVID19 myocarditis. I appreciate there is a certain amount of levity in your comment, but would be cautious about the rush to judgement.Luckyguy1983 said:We know that social contact these days is out. We know that alcohol above 70% kills the virus. We know that hydroxychloroqin has proven an effective treatment in some cases and is a derivative of quinine. We now find out that lying on your front can stop you needing a ventilator. So really, the solution is to get sh*t-faced on maximum strength G&T, alone, and end up passing out face forward.
In terms of positioning, there is an interesting review of prone ventilation for ARDS here:
There are some benefits, and some downsides. The better oxygenation and reduced lung injury vs increased cardiac arrest.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4173887/
@GideonWise may be interested
Testing later. The view is that leaving it a couple of days after symptoms appear increases the chances of an accurate result. It shouldn't increase my self isolation or alter treatment in the short term.
There may well be patchy peaks reflecting local variation, such as a big outbreak in large nursing home etc.
I think the problem in Leicester is not yet overwhelming numbers (we reported 9 fatalities in total yesterday, for a population of a million) but more the numbers of staff needing to self isolate, including myself.
Yes - I've heard that here as well, albeit the number of cases is also manageable locally (indeed, quite low I'm told). Given this, it feels like the local peak will be bad but manageable. But friends at hospitals in Herts tell me they are expecting the London overflow to go there, and all the anecdata from colleagues suggests that London is in a bad shape. Hence (and especially given the, I suspect, weaker social distancing there) that the plateau there will be worse than elsewhere in the country.0 -
Amazon, about £17. Below 93 is bad, apparently. 98 plus is good. To amuse your friends? You could also use it to hold papers together.James_M said:I read reference to o2 levels. Is it worth getting an o2 device and what would one be looking for in terms of appropriate oxygen levels? Any device recommendations? Do they have wider uses beyond this crisis?
0 -
It looks as if you need to do it through the my sky app and it is easy to doDavidL said:
Is it automatic or do we need to apply for it?Big_G_NorthWales said:Just gone on my Sky app and Sky are allowing you to suspend the Sky Sports package with immediate effect but still allow access to their sport channels.
They will re-instate the charge when sport becomes active again
Fair play to Sky
I do not think it is automatic at this stage-1 -
Indeed. The most selfish generation at it again. Nowhere near the level of self sacrifice their parents generation went through and nothing close to what they are asking of their children and grandchildren.kle4 said:
As I predicted.squareroot2 said:
We pensioners are goona get fuck all help in terms of who hets medical help if we get covid.. leave our effing pensions alone!!MarqueeMark said:
But I'm looking forwards, not backwards.Philip_Thompson said:
You're understanding it backwards.MarqueeMark said:
Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.paulyork64 said:
Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
The triple lock is doomed.
Increasing by the rate of inflation doesn't cost anything at all in real terms.
Increasing by 2.5% if inflation is extremely low is expensive in real terms.
State pensioners have done very well for a decade out of the triple lock. That ends now.2 -
Quite so. This is because from the late 1970s the New Right presented the welfare state simply as a timeless artefact of moral indulgence and decadence, without placing it in its historical context. Many people have forgotten why the country became more collectivist in the first place because of this.DavidL said:What I think we are seeing in response to this virus is a change in the collective mindset towards, well, collectivism. We are (nearly) all much more conscious that we are affected by the behaviour of others and likewise them with us. We are more willing to recognise that, for example, people should not be penalised for doing the right thing and that society collectively needs to bail them out. We are (or at least I am) more aware of how many vulnerable people there are in our society and how important it is to help them.
Will we ever go back to people waiting weeks for their benefits and a vicious sanctions regime? Surely not.
If we can house the homeless now why the hell did we not do it years ago?
If the economy can sustain whateverittakes economics what were the arguments about relatively modest differences in public spending about?
After WW2 the country threw out Churchill and elected a Labour government who transformed our society, mainly for the good. I can see such a leftward swing happening again. I wonder if our ever flexible Boris and the clever Rishi just might be able to harness it as the Tory party reinvents itself once again.1 -
Assuming the feeling lasts - a big if - there may be some changes. However, some social phenomena are not that simple. Some rough sleepers , eg, always prefer the streets to the alternatives. It seems to be just a quirk of human nature. Regarding the benefit system - it goes back at least as far as the 1600 Poor Laws remember and from day 1 there has always been a tension between desire to help those in poverty through no fault of their own and the idle and feckless. While over time the terminology has changed, in essence the tension remains. Those who work hard and save will always resent those who don't and game the system.DavidL said:What I think we are seeing in response to this virus is a change in the collective mindset towards, well, collectivism. We are (nearly) all much more conscious that we are affected by the behaviour of others and likewise them with us. We are more willing to recognise that, for example, people should not be penalised for doing the right thing and that society collectively needs to bail them out. We are (or at least I am) more aware of how many vulnerable people there are in our society and how important it is to help them.
Will we ever go back to people waiting weeks for their benefits and a vicious sanctions regime? Surely not.
If we can house the homeless now why the hell did we not do it years ago?
If the economy can sustain whateverittakes economics what were the arguments about relatively modest differences in public spending about?
After WW2 the country threw out Churchill and elected a Labour government who transformed our society, mainly for the good. I can see such a leftward swing happening again. I wonder if our ever flexible Boris and the clever Rishi just might be able to harness it as the Tory party reinvents itself once again.2 -
I don't think anywhere across the country are there enough immune people for this to have an effect yet (if we assume 3% are infected that still gives a huge reservoir of people without immunity). Simply - if we isolate entirely we cannot infect others. It means that next time there are more people to infect so we have a similar epidemic (without other actions) but the number of people infected in this first epidemic should theoretically depend only upon the efficiency of the lockdown.DavidL said:
That was my uneducated understanding. Peak was when you reached the top of the curve and this occurred when the virus was running out of targets reducing the rate of spread. If you restrict too soon then there will still be plenty of targets for any remaining virus once the restrictions come off. It comes back to the same question: have the east Asians merely deferred pain or have they avoided it?Socky said:
Doesn't the percentage of immune people locally come into the formula ?ABZ said:
A question that has puzzled me a bit - clearly London is running a bit ahead of the rest of the country but, since we slammed on the brakes at the same rate everywhere, does it not follow that the peak will take place at the same time everywhere, just with a lower amplitude outside London? I've heard several colleagues say that the peak will be deferred (i.e., later) outside London but I don't see, from a social distancing perspective why this should be the case. Am I missing something?0 -
I have had one for some time and it is good for me to use occassionally for my copdIanB2 said:
Amazon, about £17. Below 93 is bad, apparently. 98 plus is good. To amuse your friends? You could also use it to hold papers together.James_M said:I read reference to o2 levels. Is it worth getting an o2 device and what would one be looking for in terms of appropriate oxygen levels? Any device recommendations? Do they have wider uses beyond this crisis?
0 -
PS You would be correct about the peak if we were doing no social distancing.ABZ said:
I don't think anywhere across the country are there enough immune people for this to have an effect yet (if we assume 3% are infected that still gives a huge reservoir of people without immunity). Simply - if we isolate entirely we cannot infect others. It means that next time there are more people to infect so we have a similar epidemic (without other actions) but the number of people infected in this first epidemic should theoretically depend only upon the efficiency of the lockdown.DavidL said:
That was my uneducated understanding. Peak was when you reached the top of the curve and this occurred when the virus was running out of targets reducing the rate of spread. If you restrict too soon then there will still be plenty of targets for any remaining virus once the restrictions come off. It comes back to the same question: have the east Asians merely deferred pain or have they avoided it?Socky said:
Doesn't the percentage of immune people locally come into the formula ?ABZ said:
A question that has puzzled me a bit - clearly London is running a bit ahead of the rest of the country but, since we slammed on the brakes at the same rate everywhere, does it not follow that the peak will take place at the same time everywhere, just with a lower amplitude outside London? I've heard several colleagues say that the peak will be deferred (i.e., later) outside London but I don't see, from a social distancing perspective why this should be the case. Am I missing something?0 -
Am I the only person who is eating less now than before ?RochdalePioneers said:
Its not just that. Work from home + full fridges and cupboards means food gets eaten faster. Also these aren't normal times. People think they need to keep 14 days of food at home in stock at all times - so that means a lot of sizable top-up shops. The data is clear - more consumers making more trips and buying more on those trips. It has slowed down vs last week but its still way above anything normal.MaxPB said:
No, the issue is that 20-30% of our intake comes from eating out. Lunches, work canteens, nights out, pubs etc... All of this now has to be replaced by home cooking.rottenborough said:
For how long? The public can't be eating that much more, and there must be a physical limit to most people's stockpiling.LostPassword said:One striking thing in this article is that, on a calorie basis, we're expecting supermarkets to increase their supply of food by more than 40%. That's big.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/millions-to-need-food-aid-in-days-as-virus-exposes-uk-supply
And I've only had 1 unit of alcohol in the last 11 days and that was only a Fosters Radler so barely counts.
I'm also exercising more.
These have not been conscious decisions but rather seem to have happened 'naturally'.
I'm still working so its not as if my lifestyle has changed.0 -
Drop them during the inflationary spike so that we are ready for the deflationary slump?Philip_Thompson said:
Why bother though, unless you're expecting inflation to fall again too?paulyork64 said:
That might the hardest of the 3 to get rid of. But if inflation stays steady above 2.5% it could be a good time to ditch that as the minimum, and maybe the earnings link too.MarqueeMark said:
Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.paulyork64 said:
Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
The triple lock is doomed.0 -
There was effectively no system to game before the collective experience of World War II.felix said:
Assuming the feeling lasts - a big if - there may be some changes. However, some social phenomena are not that simple. Some rough sleepers , eg, always prefer the streets to the alternatives. It seems to be just a quirk of human nature. Regarding the benefit system - it goes back at least as far as the 1600 Poor Laws remember and from day 1 there has always been a tension between desire to help those in poverty through no fault of their own and the idle and feckless. While over time the terminology has changed, in essence the tension remains. Those who work hard and save will always resent those who don't and game the system.DavidL said:What I think we are seeing in response to this virus is a change in the collective mindset towards, well, collectivism. We are (nearly) all much more conscious that we are affected by the behaviour of others and likewise them with us. We are more willing to recognise that, for example, people should not be penalised for doing the right thing and that society collectively needs to bail them out. We are (or at least I am) more aware of how many vulnerable people there are in our society and how important it is to help them.
Will we ever go back to people waiting weeks for their benefits and a vicious sanctions regime? Surely not.
If we can house the homeless now why the hell did we not do it years ago?
If the economy can sustain whateverittakes economics what were the arguments about relatively modest differences in public spending about?
After WW2 the country threw out Churchill and elected a Labour government who transformed our society, mainly for the good. I can see such a leftward swing happening again. I wonder if our ever flexible Boris and the clever Rishi just might be able to harness it as the Tory party reinvents itself once again.0 -
edit - duplicated post.
0 -
Philip’s trying to make this point but inflation is NOT the expensive part of the triple lock. It is the only bit of the triple lock which doesn’t cost money. Linking to inflation only is what used to happen and the reason the triple lock was introduced (well since the 80s the main demand was a link to earnings, but the 2.5% was added as the third element when they slumped after the financial crash). Remove an inflation link and state pensions become worthless pretty quickly. Even more so if inflation takes off. Which just increases the burden on the state in other areas.MaxPB said:
Yes, time to remove the inflation link and set the minimum increase to 1%. Pensioners need to take the weight of this. I'd also look at NI on pension income.MarqueeMark said:
But I'm looking forwards, not backwards.Philip_Thompson said:
You're understanding it backwards.MarqueeMark said:
Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.paulyork64 said:
Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.MarqueeMark said:
The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.IanB2 said:Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.
Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.
Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.
The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.
The triple lock is doomed.
Increasing by the rate of inflation doesn't cost anything at all in real terms.
Increasing by 2.5% if inflation is extremely low is expensive in real terms.
State pensioners have done very well for a decade out of the triple lock. That ends now.0 -
But you're still going to get that effect quicker, the more infected people you start with. Even if the rate of spreading is slowed by a lockdown.ABZ said:
I don't think anywhere across the country are there enough immune people for this to have an effect yet (if we assume 3% are infected that still gives a huge reservoir of people without immunity). Simply - if we isolate entirely we cannot infect others. It means that next time there are more people to infect so we have a similar epidemic (without other actions) but the number of people infected in this first epidemic should theoretically depend only upon the efficiency of the lockdown.DavidL said:
That was my uneducated understanding. Peak was when you reached the top of the curve and this occurred when the virus was running out of targets reducing the rate of spread. If you restrict too soon then there will still be plenty of targets for any remaining virus once the restrictions come off. It comes back to the same question: have the east Asians merely deferred pain or have they avoided it?Socky said:
Doesn't the percentage of immune people locally come into the formula ?ABZ said:
A question that has puzzled me a bit - clearly London is running a bit ahead of the rest of the country but, since we slammed on the brakes at the same rate everywhere, does it not follow that the peak will take place at the same time everywhere, just with a lower amplitude outside London? I've heard several colleagues say that the peak will be deferred (i.e., later) outside London but I don't see, from a social distancing perspective why this should be the case. Am I missing something?0 -
Anyone who is still paying for Sky at all has too much money.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It looks as if you need to do it through the my sky app and it is easy to doDavidL said:
Is it automatic or do we need to apply for it?Big_G_NorthWales said:Just gone on my Sky app and Sky are allowing you to suspend the Sky Sports package with immediate effect but still allow access to their sport channels.
They will re-instate the charge when sport becomes active again
Fair play to Sky
I do not think it is automatic at this stage
My advice take your card out . Spot the fact you still get nearly all the channels and make a decision based on that.0 -
That is quite wrong - the mythology of no health care before the NHS, for example. The NHS was conceived as a tidying & simplification of the existing tangle of (inadequate) health care provision.WhisperingOracle said:
There was effectively no system to game before the collective experience of World War II.felix said:
Assuming the feeling lasts - a big if - there may be some changes. However, some social phenomena are not that simple. Some rough sleepers , eg, always prefer the streets to the alternatives. It seems to be just a quirk of human nature. Regarding the benefit system - it goes back at least as far as the 1600 Poor Laws remember and from day 1 there has always been a tension between desire to help those in poverty through no fault of their own and the idle and feckless. While over time the terminology has changed, in essence the tension remains. Those who work hard and save will always resent those who don't and game the system.DavidL said:What I think we are seeing in response to this virus is a change in the collective mindset towards, well, collectivism. We are (nearly) all much more conscious that we are affected by the behaviour of others and likewise them with us. We are more willing to recognise that, for example, people should not be penalised for doing the right thing and that society collectively needs to bail them out. We are (or at least I am) more aware of how many vulnerable people there are in our society and how important it is to help them.
Will we ever go back to people waiting weeks for their benefits and a vicious sanctions regime? Surely not.
If we can house the homeless now why the hell did we not do it years ago?
If the economy can sustain whateverittakes economics what were the arguments about relatively modest differences in public spending about?
After WW2 the country threw out Churchill and elected a Labour government who transformed our society, mainly for the good. I can see such a leftward swing happening again. I wonder if our ever flexible Boris and the clever Rishi just might be able to harness it as the Tory party reinvents itself once again.
The welfare state has very, very old roots.1 -
As you noticed the tenor of my post was not wholly factual, and I had also couched my comments about chloroquine with 'in some cases'. Good info though, thanks.Foxy said:
We do not know that chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine have been proven effective, though studies are ongoing. The Chinese study communicated yesterday showed no effect. In addition it can interfere with cardiac conduction, potentially an issue with COVID19 myocarditis. I appreciate there is a certain amount of levity in your comment, but would be cautious about the rush to judgement.Luckyguy1983 said:We know that social contact these days is out. We know that alcohol above 70% kills the virus. We know that hydroxychloroqin has proven an effective treatment in some cases and is a derivative of quinine. We now find out that lying on your front can stop you needing a ventilator. So really, the solution is to get sh*t-faced on maximum strength G&T, alone, and end up passing out face forward.
In terms of positioning, there is an interesting review of prone ventilation for ARDS here:
There are some benefits, and some downsides. The better oxygenation and reduced lung injury vs increased cardiac arrest.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4173887/
@GideonWise may be interested0 -
My personal weight loss programme has received an unexpected boost, Richard.another_richard said:
Am I the only person who is eating less now than before ?RochdalePioneers said:
Its not just that. Work from home + full fridges and cupboards means food gets eaten faster. Also these aren't normal times. People think they need to keep 14 days of food at home in stock at all times - so that means a lot of sizable top-up shops. The data is clear - more consumers making more trips and buying more on those trips. It has slowed down vs last week but its still way above anything normal.MaxPB said:
No, the issue is that 20-30% of our intake comes from eating out. Lunches, work canteens, nights out, pubs etc... All of this now has to be replaced by home cooking.rottenborough said:
For how long? The public can't be eating that much more, and there must be a physical limit to most people's stockpiling.LostPassword said:One striking thing in this article is that, on a calorie basis, we're expecting supermarkets to increase their supply of food by more than 40%. That's big.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/millions-to-need-food-aid-in-days-as-virus-exposes-uk-supply
And I've only had 1 unit of alcohol in the last 11 days and that was only a Fosters Radler so barely counts.
I'm also exercising more.
These have not been conscious decisions but rather seem to have happened 'naturally'.
I'm still working so its not as if my lifestyle has changed.
It's an ill wind...2
