politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2020: Governor Cuomo of New York being talked up for the nom
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2020: Governor Cuomo of New York being talked up for the nomination even at this late stage?
Within the last hour I got an email from someone whose judgement on US politics that I trust raising the possibility of Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York, being the Democratic nominee. He wrote:
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But no.
Nevertheless, sadly the situation in America likely will be worse than any other country. The lack of preparation is truly staggering. In particular, the continuation of domestic travel in the US is going to amplify the situation tremendously unfortunately.
New York's Metropolitan Opera is making one performance per day from its archive available online for free, each one from 7.30pm New York time for 23 hours, i.e from 11.30pm to 10.30pm the next day UK time. Tonight we watched the 2009 Lucia di Lammermoor, which was absolutely superb, a stunning production. A very welcome respite from the gloom.
Cuomo might be a mendacious, vindictive asshole, but he’s the mendacious, vindictive asshole New York needs right now, and maybe America too.
Covid-19 poses the greatest threat to their respective nominations and potential presidency/2nd term. I mean quite literally here.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/business-and-other-venues-subject-to-further-social-distancing-measures/businesses-and-other-venues-subject-to-further-social-distancing-measures
My best wishes, too.
This is all starting to feel very real now people on PB are reporting symptoms.
My father, who is nearing 70, is still happily going to his office daily. Can't be talked out of it.
The US is an absolute mess as far as CV-19 response goes. The national government and the states were extremely slow to respond to the problems. The evidence is that New York is going to be worse than Italy.
And while some places (like California and New York) have shut down, they are the exception, not the rule.
Large parts of the US are still in denial about the seriousness of this. In New Hampshire, a Republican lawmaker is suing the Republican Governor over the very minor restrictions he'd put in place.
But the good news is that Europe is getting a grip on this.
And in a week or two, the US will finally get the message.
Death rates in the US will be significantly worse than Europe. The crisis will be worse because of poor public health provision and poor leadership. But the US will have the advantage of getting to watch Europe get better. They will do the right thing, once they have exhausted the alternatives.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1241851522134224896
Asked if he had his eye on a Shadow Cabinet post, he replied: 'Well, I have always spent my life trying to deal with issues of human rights and justice around the world, and that is something - whether I have a position or not is not important.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8140765/Jeremy-Corbyn-wants-frontbench-role.html
It's first the voluntary option, then follow up with the stick.
Wrote to Mrs BJ this morning saying they were aware she is disabled and telling her she would receive an e mail later offering a priority delivery slot.
Sure enough e mail received 8 18pm Slot booked 8.19pm Delivery due tomorrow.
Not sure if we will get everything but hopefully will get most. Massive weight off our minds. 2 daughter have symptoms so we were a bit stuck.
Even allowed us to use a £9 off £60 at checkout sent to us in happier times.
Thank you Sainsburys.
Sounds like the supermarkets / government getting their shit together on the food front, with the announcement today of food parcels to be delivered to all those vulnerable isolators.
Instead they have Trump.
On Topic : No chance, unless Biden is physically unable to continue. Then you are in a game of 52 card pickup.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8140609/Italian-grandmother-95-recovers-coronavirus.html
Mind you, this may well be the flip side of data mining...
I have an email from Sainsbury's this morning saying they have identified me as vulnerable (full time carer, wife disabled), and saying I can log on tomorrow. No specific delivery spot as you describe.
"How will it work?
You can log on to our website or app on Monday to book a slot online as normal. We'll send you an email to let you know when slots are open. Be sure to book your delivery slot before the end of the day on Monday.
If you can't get one straight away, please keep trying. We'll make more slots available throughout the day where possible.
Please bear in mind that you'll be able to make a maximum of one order per week."
My neighbour had an email along similar lines (he is 75). How did they know his age?
They are doing it every day in rotation ie tomorrow for delivery on Tuesday etc.
We get another chance in 7 days and once a week for as long as the crisis continues I understand.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1241780036136566785
Any temporary loss of freedoms is a price worth paying to save lives.
On Friday, British ear, nose and throat doctors, citing reports from colleagues around the world, called on adults who lose their senses of smell to isolate themselves for seven days, even if they have no other symptoms, to slow the disease’s spread.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-symptoms-smell-taste.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
As well as the political angle you've picked up on, I think there have been pragmatic reasons to phase in the restrictions we've had so far. Getting as many parents as possible at home before schools are closed reduces the chance of germhopping grannycare; turning schools into daycare centres for people we still need to be working for stuff to keep going is better than the all-guns-blazing shut-everything-entirely approach if it means hospital cleaners can keep turning up to work and folk who are meant to be cocooning don't need to walk to the shops because the online delivery drivers are having to homeschool their kids.
If HMG's advisers tell him the time has come, I think it's overwhelmingly likely that Johnson will follow what they say and order whatever they deem necessary. He is certainly doing the legislative work right now to give himself the options if needed. On the flip side, if his advisers tell him that he needs to hold his nerve before ordering the next step, I'd rather he listened to them than to the folk telling him to go for lockdown now, including genuine experts who lay outside the decision-making process. Because even if someone is a top virologist or modeller or behavioural specialist, they don't have access to the same data and evidence HMG do and their depth of expertise in their area may not qualify them any better than the CMO/CSO to synthesise all that evidence.
https://order-order.com/2020/03/22/israels-social-isolation-herd-immunity-strategy/
For decades, large numbers of intelligent, caring people have tried to improve the situation for the rough sleepers. If it was as simple as giving them a home....
Christopher Snowdon is a proper anti-nanny state, anti-"public health industry" libertarian and even he's onside for this one!
How can libertarians ever support mandatory quarantine and nationwide lockdowns?
Quite easily, as it happens. I can’t speak for all libertarians (who can?) but I see libertarianism as applied economics. The government should leave businesses alone unless there are demonstrable market failures and it should leave people alone unless they are doing direct harm to others.
In case it is not obvious, infecting somebody with a potentially fatal virus counts as direct harm to others.
Let us assume that Coronavirus is far more dangerous than seasonal flu and has the potential to kill millions. If so, it is a classic public health problem. It carries serious negative externalities and can only be dealt with by collective action. There are things you can do as an individual to reduce your risk - wash your hands, cancel non-urgent appointments, etc. - but you will still be at risk.
Libertarians want to keep coercion to the minimum. We would prefer mass vaccination, but there is no vaccine yet. We would prefer voluntary self-isolation, but we cannot rely on people doing this even if they are aware that they have the virus. Lock-downs and quarantines are economically damaging and illiberal. They might be a last resort, but they should not be off the table. They do not fall under the umbrella of ‘nanny state’ because they are designed to protect other people from you and you from other people, not you from yourself.
...
We want to keep restrictions on liberty to a minimum and we do not want to damage the economy, but we may have to accept a bit of both - temporarily - if we are to protect ourselves. This is not the nanny state. It is the prevention of harm from an external threat.
Hopefully by the middle of this week, we'll start to get good news from the countries that moved fastest.
ABSTRACT
Among the many lessons of the homeland terrorist attacks of 2001 was that fear has powerful public health implications. People chose to drive instead of flying, thereby raising their risk of injury or death. Thousands took broad-spectrum antibiotics to prevent possible anthrax infections, thereby accelerating antimicrobial resistance. Such potentially harmful actions were taken by people seeking a sense of safety because they were afraid. This essay argues for greater emphasis on risk communication to help people keep their fears in perspective. Effective communication, not only through what the government says but implicit in the actions it takes, empowers people to make wiser choices in their own lives, and to support wise choices by society in applying limited resources to maximize public and environmental health.
It's very thought-provoking and deserves a thorough read, even if you disagree with their conclusions. The thing I think health wonks will find they might part company on with Gray and Ropeik's prescription, or at least find harder to follow it if, is:
SET HONEST GOALS.
Another paradigm shift is about measuring success. Honest goals must be set. Most risk communication fails because it tells people only what the communicators want them to know, to get them to behave “rationally”—that is, the way the communicator wants them to behave. This is the “brainwashing” model that Sheila Jasanoff and others have fairly criticized. 29 We believe that risk communication is more likely to succeed if it sets the more realistic goal of helping people understand the facts, in ways that are relevant to their own lives, feelings, and values, so they are empowered to put the risk in perspective and make more informed choices. Both approaches seek to inform, to educate, and to motivate changes in behavior. But the first is overtly manipulative and less likely to be trusted, while the second acknowledges and respects the reality that people’s reactions to risk are not always rational and presents the information in terms relevant to what they are feeling.
Such change will not come easily to some agencies. It means letting go of control (“We’ll tell them what we want to tell them and make them think what we want them to think”) and relying on trustworthiness rather than manipulation to achieve success. It will take a courageous manager to recognize the long-run value of giving up control in the short term.
Please please read the whole thing, I know I post a lot of links on here but since "government comms strategy" seems to be a recurring theme on PB atm this article deserves reading several times over!!
There's a point @FrancisUrquhart has raised before about the French gvt acting like they're the hardcore-yet-responsible adult in the room with their big scary two-week shutdown, whereas the UK has put us all on warning for 3 or 4 months. While we'll only know in retrospect who played the better hand here, I know the UK's more honest approach would engender far more trust from me as the pandemic pans out.