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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The rise and rise of Richi Sunak as seen on the Betfair exchan

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  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://twitter.com/yona1959/status/1239964597940977664

    HS2 now feels even more like a massive indulgence.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187

    Theresa May, the former PM, asks if Johnson agrees that it may be difficult to ease the social isolation rules before a vaccine is necessary. Does the PM agree, and how will the government have an exit strategy from these measures.

    Johnson says the government’s policy is to push down the peak of the epidemic. And he says he is confident that the country will get through this.


    Anybody in doubt, until there is a vaccine, normal life won't be fully resuming.

    That was a brutal, but fair, question from May.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    "We're increasing our tests from 5,000 to 10,000 a day and it may be of interest to the House to know that we are getting much closer to having a generally available test which will determine whether or not you have had the disease and that will truly be of huge benefit to this country in tackling the outbreak."

    Be interesting to see what rules they put in place for those that have and haven't had it.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,223

    Dura_Ace said:



    Shades of SpaceX. If you don't know the story, the aerospace industry is rife with this kind of stuff - outsource ten times over, each level adding profit.

    Rolls Royce used to charge the MoD about 90 quid for some seal on the Pegasus 106. Direct from the supplier they cost about 72p.
    There was a similar gouging in the NCB decdaes back, for a fastening on pit props if I remember right.
    More recently - the Spearfish torpedo upgrade. The hydraulics needed replacing in each torpedo, due to age. The tools etc had enough of the original companies IP in them to ensure that you couldn't do the job without paying them. They wanted zillions.

    A couple of bright sparks at the MOD realised that electrical systems have improved to the point that they can replace hydraulics. So they commissioned a project to replace the hydraulics with electric actuators. Which worked, were lighter, cost far less, and much safer to deal with. High pressure hydraulics are fun fun fun...

    A deputation of MPs from all parties and hydraulics guys demanded the Minister reverse the decision - "protecting jobs, industrial base... blah blah...". He told them to Foxtrot Oscar.

    Similar thing with torpedos for the P-8s, uniforms for the Sentinal spy planes, etc etc...
  • Options
    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    OllyT said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the true rate is so high compared to the reported why is the % of positive tests so low. Is it a high check rate of low probability infected hospital admissions ?>

    And contact tracing not being effective. There's no way only 1,500 people have it in the whole UK.
    200,000 confirmed cases of covid 19 worldwide according to John Hopkins University
    Thats 0.00002597402 of the worlds population
    What is your point in constantly downplaying the importance of the problem.

    Do you seriously believe that governments across the globe are taking the measures they are for a giggle?

    All your posts do is encourage idiots to believe it's just like the flu and let's all go down the pub.
    My posts are factual
  • Options
    justin124 said:

    Labour probably only needs to recover to circa 260 seats given the Anti-Tory bloc in Scotland. I also expect some Labour recovery in Scotland under Starmer.

    Then again you expected incumbency to save Labour MPs in Scotland last year.
  • Options
    eggegg Posts: 1,749
    egg said:

    Floater said:

    egg said:

    So with the soaps filming cancelled and running out of footage, which is a shame there is one heck of a storyline here, Bojo has told everyone not to go in the Vic, and we know they’ve had cash flow problems for years. Why don’t they show the first episodes and on in the slot? Beeb could with eastenders, not sure ITV could? Look at all the top stars started out on the street, it would be fascinating.

    Not sure what could be done for sport lovers, the whole point these days it is live isn’t it?

    Some people are already been creative. Dropkick Murphys live streamed their St Patrick days concert for free across a load of platform to over a million people last night. And of course it is there on "catchup".

    There is now twitch, youtube, fb that all provide live streaming options. Plenty of opportunity for those that have creative talents to entertainment the masses.
    I understand some films are being released to purchase (rent) on your tv's rather than via cinemas
    So an effect of this could be more people particularly old people discovering what you tube and other channels have to offer, as entertainment. As live comedy and music not just from the can.

    Gaming as well, both board gaming, computer and video gaming could prove popular. I’ve turned to FM20 for my football fix. I’ve dowloaded Democracy 3 yesterday to iPad. I’m eyeing CKII
    I’m finding FM20 quite effective for football fix. Got full version on laptop, it seems quite realistic, immersive, you in office with chalkboard with strategy to win games, but that means managing them in other room to realise your vision in the match. I think FM simulators in past had you too much of the boss, not having to work with the power of the dressing room.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the true rate is so high compared to the reported why is the % of positive tests so low. Is it a high check rate of low probability infected hospital admissions ?>

    And contact tracing not being effective. There's no way only 1,500 people have it in the whole UK.
    200,000 confirmed cases of covid 19 worldwide according to John Hopkins University
    Thats 0.00002597402 of the worlds population
    The fraction with it is probably a fair bit higher.
    Im sure it is but that figure does put the "outbreak" into a bit of perspective
    Only to someone really terminally stupid.

    Are you a reincarnation of someone else?
    Why is it stupid, the Spanish Flu killed at least 50 million,
    Of the dozens of possible answers to this, the two most easy to understand

    1. Someone tells you that their 5 year old child has died. Do you console them with the thought that the Spanish Flu killed at least 50 million? Because of "perspective"?

    2. The Spanish Flu is a thing which has happened. It had a beginning, a middle and an end. Has Covid 19 had 1, 2 or all 3 of those things? What does that tell you about the comparability of the statistics?
    Don't bother, this guy obviously isn't arguing in good faith
    It is odd how "perspective" arguments appeal to the terminally dim. All the objects which I deal with in day to day life are smaller than the planet Neptune. Does that put them into perspective? Should I pay more attention to the planet?
    I don't think there is any need for personal invective. It is all very well saying 'what price a life', but as discussed yesterday, we price lives all the time - it is the bread and butter of our NHS.
    That was a completely different issue, and I profoundly disagree> If there are people stupid enough to articulate this hurr hurr hurr 0.000002% yebbut flu perspective stuff there are presumably people stupid enough to agree with it, and alter their behaviour for the worse. It needs stamping on.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    DavidL said:

    Wonder if it is worth putting money into book delivery companies such as Waterstone's and Abebooks, if Amazon falls over.

    I am untypical in that I couldn't give a fig about the loss of soap operas or sporting fixtures but losing access to books???

    I believe there was a significant uptick in poetry sales during the world wars so possibly good news for Simon Armitage (poet laureate with a popular touch - bit like Betjeman)

    Amazon fall over???? They have enough cash reserves to see out the decade.
    I took that to mean were unable to cope with the demand.
    Amazon have already adjusted. They aren't taking any new stock from 3rd party sellers of non-essential crap and are hiring new employees.
    After the dust clears, every firm might be owned by one of Amazon or Apple. They might even be able to buy some medium size countries.
    I think the government are more than ever going to be pro-active in stopping this. Furthermore, who knows what good will come from some very smart people stuck at home being able to work on new ideas they would never have had time to do otherwise.

    I have quite a positive outlook at just like in times of war it drives innovation.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    justin124 said:

    Labour probably only needs to recover to circa 260 seats given the Anti-Tory bloc in Scotland. I also expect some Labour recovery in Scotland under Starmer.

    You've spent what feels like decades talking about that Labour recovery......
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    OllyT said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the true rate is so high compared to the reported why is the % of positive tests so low. Is it a high check rate of low probability infected hospital admissions ?>

    And contact tracing not being effective. There's no way only 1,500 people have it in the whole UK.
    200,000 confirmed cases of covid 19 worldwide according to John Hopkins University
    Thats 0.00002597402 of the worlds population
    What is your point in constantly downplaying the importance of the problem.

    Do you seriously believe that governments across the globe are taking the measures they are for a giggle?

    All your posts do is encourage idiots to believe it's just like the flu and let's all go down the pub.
    My posts are factual
    But meaningless given that it has only just begun.
  • Options

    https://twitter.com/yona1959/status/1239964597940977664

    HS2 now feels even more like a massive indulgence.

    Not if we don't have airlines.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    egg said:

    egg said:

    Floater said:

    egg said:

    So with the soaps filming cancelled and running out of footage, which is a shame there is one heck of a storyline here, Bojo has told everyone not to go in the Vic, and we know they’ve had cash flow problems for years. Why don’t they show the first episodes and on in the slot? Beeb could with eastenders, not sure ITV could? Look at all the top stars started out on the street, it would be fascinating.

    Not sure what could be done for sport lovers, the whole point these days it is live isn’t it?

    Some people are already been creative. Dropkick Murphys live streamed their St Patrick days concert for free across a load of platform to over a million people last night. And of course it is there on "catchup".

    There is now twitch, youtube, fb that all provide live streaming options. Plenty of opportunity for those that have creative talents to entertainment the masses.
    I understand some films are being released to purchase (rent) on your tv's rather than via cinemas
    So an effect of this could be more people particularly old people discovering what you tube and other channels have to offer, as entertainment. As live comedy and music not just from the can.

    Gaming as well, both board gaming, computer and video gaming could prove popular. I’ve turned to FM20 for my football fix. I’ve dowloaded Democracy 3 yesterday to iPad. I’m eyeing CKII
    I’m finding FM20 quite effective for football fix. Got full version on laptop, it seems quite realistic, immersive, you in office with chalkboard with strategy to win games, but that means managing them in other room to realise your vision in the match. I think FM simulators in past had you too much of the boss, not having to work with the power of the dressing room.
    I am desperately resisting the urge to fire up the likes of FM or City Skylines.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,111

    Theresa May, the former PM, asks if Johnson agrees that it may be difficult to ease the social isolation rules before a vaccine is necessary. Does the PM agree, and how will the government have an exit strategy from these measures.

    Johnson says the government’s policy is to push down the peak of the epidemic. And he says he is confident that the country will get through this.


    Anybody in doubt, until there is a vaccine, normal life won't be fully resuming.

    It was a question not a statement of fact. Can we take this one day at a time and take our cue from countries further along the epidemic than we are?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,932

    https://twitter.com/yona1959/status/1239964597940977664

    HS2 now feels even more like a massive indulgence.

    HS2 is only an indulgence if things don't return to normal.
  • Options
    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    tlg86 said:

    Theresa May, the former PM, asks if Johnson agrees that it may be difficult to ease the social isolation rules before a vaccine is necessary. Does the PM agree, and how will the government have an exit strategy from these measures.

    Johnson says the government’s policy is to push down the peak of the epidemic. And he says he is confident that the country will get through this.


    Anybody in doubt, until there is a vaccine, normal life won't be fully resuming.

    That was a brutal, but fair, question from May.
    And by that time the economy will be finished
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2020
    DougSeal said:

    Theresa May, the former PM, asks if Johnson agrees that it may be difficult to ease the social isolation rules before a vaccine is necessary. Does the PM agree, and how will the government have an exit strategy from these measures.

    Johnson says the government’s policy is to push down the peak of the epidemic. And he says he is confident that the country will get through this.


    Anybody in doubt, until there is a vaccine, normal life won't be fully resuming.

    It was a question not a statement of fact. Can we take this one day at a time and take our cue from countries further along the epidemic than we are?
    It is a statement of fact in the Imperial report and why Boris can't give any promises in response to this question.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    "We're increasing our tests from 5,000 to 10,000 a day and it may be of interest to the House to know that we are getting much closer to having a generally available test which will determine whether or not you have had the disease and that will truly be of huge benefit to this country in tackling the outbreak."

    Be interesting to see what rules they put in place for those that have and haven't had it.

    Huge news if true.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    It's common for young adults in rural areas to live with their parents and grandparents but to commute into cities, such as Milan, to work and socialise.

    They may have been picking up the virus while travelling and brought it home without realising they were ill, the Oxford researchers said.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8125457/Italys-coronavirus-crisis-worsened-multi-generational-homes.html
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,903

    I see the daily dose of moronic anti London comments is being administered again

    Knock Knock
    "Who's there?"
    "Your neighbour..."
    "Look mate, this is London. I don't want to know you. I will only acknowledge you if you play your tunes too loud, and then I'm calling the police. OK
    QED.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    RobD said:

    "We're increasing our tests from 5,000 to 10,000 a day and it may be of interest to the House to know that we are getting much closer to having a generally available test which will determine whether or not you have had the disease and that will truly be of huge benefit to this country in tackling the outbreak."

    Be interesting to see what rules they put in place for those that have and haven't had it.

    Huge news if true.
    The egg-heads said the same yesterday at the press conference. It is clearly a big part of their plan.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306

    DougSeal said:

    Theresa May, the former PM, asks if Johnson agrees that it may be difficult to ease the social isolation rules before a vaccine is necessary. Does the PM agree, and how will the government have an exit strategy from these measures.

    Johnson says the government’s policy is to push down the peak of the epidemic. And he says he is confident that the country will get through this.


    Anybody in doubt, until there is a vaccine, normal life won't be fully resuming.

    It was a question not a statement of fact. Can we take this one day at a time and take our cue from countries further along the epidemic than we are?
    It is a statement of fact in the Imperial report and why Boris can't give any promises in response to this question.
    That is a report. Its findings may be powerful and convincing, but since they don't issue directly from the mouth of God, they do not represent unchallengeable truth. That's not a verdict on the quality of the report (wouldn't dream of it) but goes for reports in general.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,111

    DougSeal said:

    Theresa May, the former PM, asks if Johnson agrees that it may be difficult to ease the social isolation rules before a vaccine is necessary. Does the PM agree, and how will the government have an exit strategy from these measures.

    Johnson says the government’s policy is to push down the peak of the epidemic. And he says he is confident that the country will get through this.


    Anybody in doubt, until there is a vaccine, normal life won't be fully resuming.

    It was a question not a statement of fact. Can we take this one day at a time and take our cue from countries further along the epidemic than we are?
    It is a statement of fact in the Imperial report.
    No. It was a hypothesis based on the model detailed in the Imperial report. And the Imperial report, while it has to be taken seriously, is not Holy Writ - see https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,367

    Nigelb said:

    Pagan2 said:
    ...Fracassi admits that his 3D-printed versions might not be very durable or re-usable. But when it's possible to make replacements so cheaply -- each 3D-printed part costs just one euro, or roughly a dollar -- that isn't a problem. At least it wouldn't be, except for that threat of legal action, which is also why Fracassi doesn't dare share his 3D file with other hospitals, despite their desperate need for these valves.
    And if you're wondering why the original manufacturer would risk what is bound to be awful publicity for its actions, over something that only costs one euro to make, a detail in the Business Insider Italia article provides an explanation: the official list price for a single valve is 10,000 euros...
    Shades of SpaceX. If you don't know the story, the aerospace industry is rife with this kind of stuff - outsource ten times over, each level adding profit.

    Elon Musk simply asked how much each component should cost to make. Then added 40% for profit/variation. If it was more than that, bought the manufacturing in house. And collapsed the price of rockets.

    At one hospital my children use, someone realised that the ideal drawers for storing minor supplies - dressings, saline amuples etc. were mechanics tool chests. Identical in function to the "proper" item, but 10 times cheaper. They even won an award for the idea.

    Six months later, all gone and replaced with the "proper" item. The importer of that special set of drawers is in the constituency of a certain high ranking opposition MP. He reached out and had the problem of the NHS buying drawers too cheaply fixed.
    SoftBank Owned Patent Troll, Using Monkey Selfie Law Firm, Sues To Block Covid-19 Testing, Using Theranos Patents
    https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20200316/14584244111/softbank-owned-patent-troll-using-monkey-selfie-law-firm-sues-to-block-covid-19-testing-using-theranos-patents.shtml
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,129

    https://twitter.com/yona1959/status/1239964597940977664

    HS2 now feels even more like a massive indulgence.

    I disagree. We are going to need some massive capital infrastructure projects to give a shock to an economy in cardiac arrest. HS2 is further down the track (apologies) than most alternatives.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2020
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Theresa May, the former PM, asks if Johnson agrees that it may be difficult to ease the social isolation rules before a vaccine is necessary. Does the PM agree, and how will the government have an exit strategy from these measures.

    Johnson says the government’s policy is to push down the peak of the epidemic. And he says he is confident that the country will get through this.


    Anybody in doubt, until there is a vaccine, normal life won't be fully resuming.

    It was a question not a statement of fact. Can we take this one day at a time and take our cue from countries further along the epidemic than we are?
    It is a statement of fact in the Imperial report.
    No. It was a hypothesis based on the model detailed in the Imperial report. And the Imperial report, while it has to be taken seriously, is not Holy Writ - see https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions
    Sure, but it was the only evidence based strategy they said was possible (other than herd immunity). In addition to Imperial report, Germany have said the same thing (talking about at least 2 years of this), Australia too.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    edited March 2020

    OllyT said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the true rate is so high compared to the reported why is the % of positive tests so low. Is it a high check rate of low probability infected hospital admissions ?>

    And contact tracing not being effective. There's no way only 1,500 people have it in the whole UK.
    200,000 confirmed cases of covid 19 worldwide according to John Hopkins University
    Thats 0.00002597402 of the worlds population
    What is your point in constantly downplaying the importance of the problem.

    Do you seriously believe that governments across the globe are taking the measures they are for a giggle?

    All your posts do is encourage idiots to believe it's just like the flu and let's all go down the pub.
    My posts are factual
    If the facts are all there is to it why are governments taking the action they are? Don't tell me, it's not a big deal and you know better than all the health experts around the globe.
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    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    edited March 2020

    "We're increasing our tests from 5,000 to 10,000 a day and it may be of interest to the House to know that we are getting much closer to having a generally available test which will determine whether or not you have had the disease and that will truly be of huge benefit to this country in tackling the outbreak."

    Be interesting to see what rules they put in place for those that have and haven't had it.

    Game changer.

    Something unremarked so far. The Chinese are pretty good at lockdowns, the Koreans on using their slightly Orwellian datastate to track infected patients. The UK are pretty damn good at developing new molecular diagnostics.
  • Options
    Much excitement - we've switched to Zoom from Skype!
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,822
    Afternoon all :)

    Not long back from my daily antisocial walk. I find growling at people if they approach too close is invaluable in maintaining the new etiquette of social distance.

    As an aside, I did purchase the Racing Post but there's not going to be much point and that news paper may come under pressure if betting shops are forced to close.

    Sainsbury's in East Ham High Street was busy but okay - most of the obvious shelves picked clean but even the fresh meat and fish looking depleted. Tesco's was a nightmare - the car park was as busy as Christmas Eve and the store was rammed. They have reduced their opening hours and are no longer 24 hours.

    The panic buying and stocking up continues unabated - why is no one in authority seeking to mitigate this? It needs some leadership (which will be a struggle for Johnson) to tell people there is no need to overstock, no need to hoard and to think of the more vulnerable in society.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the true rate is so high compared to the reported why is the % of positive tests so low. Is it a high check rate of low probability infected hospital admissions ?>

    And contact tracing not being effective. There's no way only 1,500 people have it in the whole UK.
    200,000 confirmed cases of covid 19 worldwide according to John Hopkins University
    Thats 0.00002597402 of the worlds population
    The fraction with it is probably a fair bit higher.
    Im sure it is but that figure does put the "outbreak" into a bit of perspective
    Only to someone really terminally stupid.

    Are you a reincarnation of someone else?
    Why is it stupid, the Spanish Flu killed at least 50 million,
    Of the dozens of possible answers to this, the two most easy to understand

    1. Someone tells you that their 5 year old child has died. Do you console them with the thought that the Spanish Flu killed at least 50 million? Because of "perspective"?

    2. The Spanish Flu is a thing which has happened. It had a beginning, a middle and an end. Has Covid 19 had 1, 2 or all 3 of those things? What does that tell you about the comparability of the statistics?
    Don't bother, this guy obviously isn't arguing in good faith
    It is odd how "perspective" arguments appeal to the terminally dim. All the objects which I deal with in day to day life are smaller than the planet Neptune. Does that put them into perspective? Should I pay more attention to the planet?
    In the Hitch-Hiker’s Guide the “total perspective vortex” which showed you exactly how big you were compared to the universe was used as an ultimate punishment.
    Quite.

    And they can't even get the very basic idea right. It is perspective which tells you that a ball bearing is bigger than Neptune, so stating the relative masses takes away perspective, not gives it. And in practical terms perspective is right: unless you are an astronomer, it is a good rule in life to pay more attention to ball bearings than to Neptune.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    "We're increasing our tests from 5,000 to 10,000 a day and it may be of interest to the House to know that we are getting much closer to having a generally available test which will determine whether or not you have had the disease and that will truly be of huge benefit to this country in tackling the outbreak."

    Be interesting to see what rules they put in place for those that have and haven't had it.

    Game changer.
    We really need both the "instant screening test" and the post infection test. Then we can quickly isolate those that have it before they become super spreaders (especially those travelling from abroad) and also let out the ones that have recovered and aren't at risk.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Not long back from my daily antisocial walk. I find growling at people if they approach too close is invaluable in maintaining the new etiquette of social distance.

    As an aside, I did purchase the Racing Post but there's not going to be much point and that news paper may come under pressure if betting shops are forced to close.

    Sainsbury's in East Ham High Street was busy but okay - most of the obvious shelves picked clean but even the fresh meat and fish looking depleted. Tesco's was a nightmare - the car park was as busy as Christmas Eve and the store was rammed. They have reduced their opening hours and are no longer 24 hours.

    The panic buying and stocking up continues unabated - why is no one in authority seeking to mitigate this? It needs some leadership (which will be a struggle for Johnson) to tell people there is no need to overstock, no need to hoard and to think of the more vulnerable in society.

    Hasn't he said that at the two previous press conferences, and the same message is being given by the retailers? It doesn't help that the media are making this seem like the end of days, which is undoubtedly encouraging it.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    "We're increasing our tests from 5,000 to 10,000 a day and it may be of interest to the House to know that we are getting much closer to having a generally available test which will determine whether or not you have had the disease and that will truly be of huge benefit to this country in tackling the outbreak."

    Be interesting to see what rules they put in place for those that have and haven't had it.

    Game changer.

    Something unremarked so far. The Chinese are pretty good at lockdowns, the Koreans on using their slightly Orwellian datastate to track infected patients. The UK are pretty damn good at developing new molecular diagnostics.
    Goodness how many people would want that test
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the true rate is so high compared to the reported why is the % of positive tests so low. Is it a high check rate of low probability infected hospital admissions ?>

    And contact tracing not being effective. There's no way only 1,500 people have it in the whole UK.
    200,000 confirmed cases of covid 19 worldwide according to John Hopkins University
    Thats 0.00002597402 of the worlds population
    The fraction with it is probably a fair bit higher.
    Im sure it is but that figure does put the "outbreak" into a bit of perspective
    Only to someone really terminally stupid.

    Are you a reincarnation of someone else?
    Why is it stupid, the Spanish Flu killed at least 50 million,
    Of the dozens of possible answers to this, the two most easy to understand

    1. Someone tells you that their 5 year old child has died. Do you console them with the thought that the Spanish Flu killed at least 50 million? Because of "perspective"?

    2. The Spanish Flu is a thing which has happened. It had a beginning, a middle and an end. Has Covid 19 had 1, 2 or all 3 of those things? What does that tell you about the comparability of the statistics?
    Don't bother, this guy obviously isn't arguing in good faith
    It is odd how "perspective" arguments appeal to the terminally dim. All the objects which I deal with in day to day life are smaller than the planet Neptune. Does that put them into perspective? Should I pay more attention to the planet?
    In the Hitch-Hiker’s Guide the “total perspective vortex” which showed you exactly how big you were compared to the universe was used as an ultimate punishment.
    Quite.

    And they can't even get the very basic idea right. It is perspective which tells you that a ball bearing is bigger than Neptune, so stating the relative masses takes away perspective, not gives it. And in practical terms perspective is right: unless you are an astronomer, it is a good rule in life to pay more attention to ball bearings than to Neptune.
    Maybe a good rule of thumb is angular size? :D:p
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,639
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Not long back from my daily antisocial walk. I find growling at people if they approach too close is invaluable in maintaining the new etiquette of social distance.

    As an aside, I did purchase the Racing Post but there's not going to be much point and that news paper may come under pressure if betting shops are forced to close.

    Sainsbury's in East Ham High Street was busy but okay - most of the obvious shelves picked clean but even the fresh meat and fish looking depleted. Tesco's was a nightmare - the car park was as busy as Christmas Eve and the store was rammed. They have reduced their opening hours and are no longer 24 hours.

    The panic buying and stocking up continues unabated - why is no one in authority seeking to mitigate this? It needs some leadership (which will be a struggle for Johnson) to tell people there is no need to overstock, no need to hoard and to think of the more vulnerable in society.

    They have said this many times but the reality is everytime we get told there is no need to stock up and panic buy people only hear stock up and panic buy.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/yona1959/status/1239964597940977664

    HS2 now feels even more like a massive indulgence.

    I disagree. We are going to need some massive capital infrastructure projects to give a shock to an economy in cardiac arrest. HS2 is further down the track (apologies) than most alternatives.
    You're right its far down the track - its decades away.

    HS2 will do absolutely nothing for the economy for the foreseeable future. Doesn't mean its not a good investment for the long term but if we're talking 2033 [and that's being optimistic lets be honest] before its operational there's other short term projects that could be operational before then that will be needed too.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,822
    DavidL said:



    With a positive cornucopia of viruses and bugs to keep you entertained on the way. Must be a betting opportunity in there somewhere.

    Are you suggesting opening a betting shop in each tube station? There were supposed to be hundreds of retail opportunities available once the ticket offices closed.

    The Underground has been London's mobile germ warfare laboratory for 150 years or more - a little more respect, please.

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    eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    egg said:

    Floater said:

    egg said:

    So with the soaps filming cancelled and running out of footage, which is a shame there is one heck of a storyline here, Bojo has told everyone not to go in the Vic, and we know they’ve had cash flow problems for years. Why don’t they show the first episodes and on in the slot? Beeb could with eastenders, not sure ITV could? Look at all the top stars started out on the street, it would be fascinating.

    Not sure what could be done for sport lovers, the whole point these days it is live isn’t it?

    Some people are already been creative. Dropkick Murphys live streamed their St Patrick days concert for free across a load of platform to over a million people last night. And of course it is there on "catchup".

    There is now twitch, youtube, fb that all provide live streaming options. Plenty of opportunity for those that have creative talents to entertainment the masses.
    I understand some films are being released to purchase (rent) on your tv's rather than via cinemas
    So an effect of this could be more people particularly old people discovering what you tube and other channels have to offer, as entertainment. As live comedy and music not just from the can.

    Gaming as well, both board gaming, computer and video gaming could prove popular. I’ve turned to FM20 for my football fix. I’ve dowloaded Democracy 3 yesterday to iPad. I’m eyeing CKII
    I’m finding FM20 quite effective for football fix. Got full version on laptop, it seems quite realistic, immersive, you in office with chalkboard with strategy to win games, but that means managing them in other room to realise your vision in the match. I think FM simulators in past had you too much of the boss, not having to work with the power of the dressing room.
    I am desperately resisting the urge to fire up the likes of FM or City Skylines.
    Go for it. FM20 full download from steam. It will feed anyone’s football craving in this coming drought

    It’s opened my eyes too, where the power lies in the different rooms in the building, what the role of manager actually is these days. Also tactics, how you need hooks, connecting your df and sitting midfield to the attack, and you need runners, and pressing. Also you can’t just say play like this, they need to work on it get fluid. And then you actually win a game, fist pumps, after peering through fingers in the closing stages
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/yona1959/status/1239964597940977664

    HS2 now feels even more like a massive indulgence.

    I disagree. We are going to need some massive capital infrastructure projects to give a shock to an economy in cardiac arrest. HS2 is further down the track (apologies) than most alternatives.
    You're right its far down the track - its decades away.

    HS2 will do absolutely nothing for the economy for the foreseeable future. Doesn't mean its not a good investment for the long term but if we're talking 2033 [and that's being optimistic lets be honest] before its operational there's other short term projects that could be operational before then that will be needed too.
    They money spent up to that point doesn't disappear into the ether, it pays salaries and for materials, which will hopefully be locally sourced.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,106
    edited March 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    It is odd how "perspective" arguments appeal to the terminally dim. All the objects which I deal with in day to day life are smaller than the planet Neptune. Does that put them into perspective? Should I pay more attention to the planet?

    It's a great point. You are in no way talking out of Uranus in making it.

    However, "perspective" can be a useful coping mechanism. For example, we hear about the virus 100% of the time now on the news and on here. It's this and only this. Yet in many many parts of the world things are so bad, compared to what we take for granted as our normality, that this crisis would represent a quite trivial problem. NHS falls over for a while. A deep recession. Job losses. Wealth destroyed. A significant number of mainly elderly people die. Offer that deal around the globe and there would be plenty of takers.

    Not saying we are getting overwrought - our own problems are always the biggest and I'm certainly very anxious and concerned - but I do think "perspective" in this sense is valuable and should be encouraged.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,111

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Theresa May, the former PM, asks if Johnson agrees that it may be difficult to ease the social isolation rules before a vaccine is necessary. Does the PM agree, and how will the government have an exit strategy from these measures.

    Johnson says the government’s policy is to push down the peak of the epidemic. And he says he is confident that the country will get through this.


    Anybody in doubt, until there is a vaccine, normal life won't be fully resuming.

    It was a question not a statement of fact. Can we take this one day at a time and take our cue from countries further along the epidemic than we are?
    It is a statement of fact in the Imperial report.
    No. It was a hypothesis based on the model detailed in the Imperial report. And the Imperial report, while it has to be taken seriously, is not Holy Writ - see https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions
    Sure, but it was the only evidence based strategy they said was possible (other than herd immunity). In addition to Imperial report, Germany have said the same thing (talking about at least 2 years of this), Australia too.
    They may be right. They may be wrong. Taking this one day at a time is the only thing that will keep you sane.
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    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    "We're increasing our tests from 5,000 to 10,000 a day and it may be of interest to the House to know that we are getting much closer to having a generally available test which will determine whether or not you have had the disease and that will truly be of huge benefit to this country in tackling the outbreak."

    Be interesting to see what rules they put in place for those that have and haven't had it.

    Game changer.
    We really need both the "instant screening test" and the post infection test. Then we can quickly isolate those that have it before they become super spreaders (especially those travelling from abroad) and also let out the ones that have recovered and aren't at risk.
    Agreed. This is the way we will come out of the lockdown without needing a vaccine.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,367

    "We're increasing our tests from 5,000 to 10,000 a day and it may be of interest to the House to know that we are getting much closer to having a generally available test which will determine whether or not you have had the disease and that will truly be of huge benefit to this country in tackling the outbreak."

    Be interesting to see what rules they put in place for those that have and haven't had it.

    Game changer.

    Something unremarked so far. The Chinese are pretty good at lockdowns, the Koreans on using their slightly Orwellian datastate to track infected patients. The UK are pretty damn good at developing new molecular diagnostics.
    Needs to be available in bulk, and accurate, though.

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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/yona1959/status/1239964597940977664

    HS2 now feels even more like a massive indulgence.

    I disagree. We are going to need some massive capital infrastructure projects to give a shock to an economy in cardiac arrest. HS2 is further down the track (apologies) than most alternatives.
    You're right its far down the track - its decades away.

    HS2 will do absolutely nothing for the economy for the foreseeable future. Doesn't mean its not a good investment for the long term but if we're talking 2033 [and that's being optimistic lets be honest] before its operational there's other short term projects that could be operational before then that will be needed too.
    They money spent up to that point doesn't disappear into the ether, it pays salaries and for materials, which will hopefully be locally sourced.
    So would paying someone to dig a hole and paying someone else to fill it.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/yona1959/status/1239964597940977664

    HS2 now feels even more like a massive indulgence.

    I disagree. We are going to need some massive capital infrastructure projects to give a shock to an economy in cardiac arrest. HS2 is further down the track (apologies) than most alternatives.
    You're right its far down the track - its decades away.

    HS2 will do absolutely nothing for the economy for the foreseeable future. Doesn't mean its not a good investment for the long term but if we're talking 2033 [and that's being optimistic lets be honest] before its operational there's other short term projects that could be operational before then that will be needed too.
    They money spent up to that point doesn't disappear into the ether, it pays salaries and for materials, which will hopefully be locally sourced.
    So would paying someone to dig a hole and paying someone else to fill it.
    I don't follow? My point is the money would be going back into the economy, not sitting in a bank account somewhere.
  • Options

    I see the daily dose of moronic anti London comments is being administered again

    Knock Knock
    "Who's there?"
    "Your neighbour..."
    "Look mate, this is London. I don't want to know you. I will only acknowledge you if you play your tunes too loud, and then I'm calling the police. OK
    QED.
    Shit the bed, lighten up.
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    BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    "We're increasing our tests from 5,000 to 10,000 a day and it may be of interest to the House to know that we are getting much closer to having a generally available test which will determine whether or not you have had the disease and that will truly be of huge benefit to this country in tackling the outbreak."

    Be interesting to see what rules they put in place for those that have and haven't had it.

    Game changer.

    Something unremarked so far. The Chinese are pretty good at lockdowns, the Koreans on using their slightly Orwellian datastate to track infected patients. The UK are pretty damn good at developing new molecular diagnostics.
    yeah, on a number of levels.
    UK coming up with one of the key planks to how we deal with this threat in the long term would also have massive effects on morale etc. And that's the big unknown on 'how long can we stay slightly - if not fully - shutdown?' ...
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    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,826
    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/yona1959/status/1239964597940977664

    HS2 now feels even more like a massive indulgence.

    HS2 is only an indulgence if things don't return to normal.
    Not necessarily, the knock on from this lock down is many firms may decide people working from home where they can most of the time makes more sense due to savings in office space and also improved quality of life for those that prefer it. HS2 is predicated on an ever increasing need to travel for work....that could well be a false premise.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306
    What HS2 needs is an exit strategy. Something to make good the vast amount that has already been spent. Something like a shorter railway terminating in a new commuter town. Get Prince Charles to build it.
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    Welsh Schools closing for Easter from March 20th.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/yona1959/status/1239964597940977664

    HS2 now feels even more like a massive indulgence.

    I disagree. We are going to need some massive capital infrastructure projects to give a shock to an economy in cardiac arrest. HS2 is further down the track (apologies) than most alternatives.
    You're right its far down the track - its decades away.

    HS2 will do absolutely nothing for the economy for the foreseeable future. Doesn't mean its not a good investment for the long term but if we're talking 2033 [and that's being optimistic lets be honest] before its operational there's other short term projects that could be operational before then that will be needed too.
    They money spent up to that point doesn't disappear into the ether, it pays salaries and for materials, which will hopefully be locally sourced.
    So would paying someone to dig a hole and paying someone else to fill it.
    I don't follow? My point is the money would be going back into the economy, not sitting in a bank account somewhere.
    Its an old expression, have you never heard of it before?.

    If you pay someone to dig a hole, then pay someone else to fill the hole, then that money doesn't disappear. It pays salaries and they might seek to buy a spade sourced locally. You've absolutely nothing productive to show for it in the end, but the money hasn't disappeared.

    Doesn't justify doing it though in my opinion. I've never bought "salaries" as a justification for spending, because we could spend salaries on any meaningless garbage (like paying someone to dig a hole only to pay someone else to refill it). The justification for a project can't be its salaries it needs to be what the project gives to make those salaries worthwhile.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/yona1959/status/1239964597940977664

    HS2 now feels even more like a massive indulgence.

    I disagree. We are going to need some massive capital infrastructure projects to give a shock to an economy in cardiac arrest. HS2 is further down the track (apologies) than most alternatives.
    You're right its far down the track - its decades away.

    HS2 will do absolutely nothing for the economy for the foreseeable future. Doesn't mean its not a good investment for the long term but if we're talking 2033 [and that's being optimistic lets be honest] before its operational there's other short term projects that could be operational before then that will be needed too.
    They money spent up to that point doesn't disappear into the ether, it pays salaries and for materials, which will hopefully be locally sourced.
    So would paying someone to dig a hole and paying someone else to fill it.
    I don't follow? My point is the money would be going back into the economy, not sitting in a bank account somewhere.
    Its an old expression, have you never heard of it before?.

    If you pay someone to dig a hole, then pay someone else to fill the hole, then that money doesn't disappear. It pays salaries and they might seek to buy a spade sourced locally. You've absolutely nothing productive to show for it in the end, but the money hasn't disappeared.

    Doesn't justify doing it though in my opinion. I've never bought "salaries" as a justification for spending, because we could spend salaries on any meaningless garbage (like paying someone to dig a hole only to pay someone else to refill it). The justification for a project can't be its salaries it needs to be what the project gives to make those salaries worthwhile.
    You said HS2 would do nothing for the economy for the foreseeable future. I don't think that is true, regardless of whether anything useful has been built or not.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,106

    No I slagged of Johnson Snr as well. Go check.

    Anybody over 60 that doesn't need to go, needs to stay in as much as possible. Its that simple. I have been absolutely consistent on that.

    Over the past few days, on here, I called out Blunkett, Janet Street Porter, Bojo Snr, Jezza for all acting like total tw@ts, with their entitled attitude of "but I am fit and healthy" and "its ageist against us in good health".

    Get in the house and stay in there.

    Mmm. But you were pissed off about Peston raising it - which to me is odd if you think it's very important that high profile figures like StanJo do not set a bad example.

    But anyway, let you off, this is a national emergency and I do like your posts on it on the whole.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/yona1959/status/1239964597940977664

    HS2 now feels even more like a massive indulgence.

    I disagree. We are going to need some massive capital infrastructure projects to give a shock to an economy in cardiac arrest. HS2 is further down the track (apologies) than most alternatives.
    You're right its far down the track - its decades away.

    HS2 will do absolutely nothing for the economy for the foreseeable future. Doesn't mean its not a good investment for the long term but if we're talking 2033 [and that's being optimistic lets be honest] before its operational there's other short term projects that could be operational before then that will be needed too.
    They money spent up to that point doesn't disappear into the ether, it pays salaries and for materials, which will hopefully be locally sourced.
    So would paying someone to dig a hole and paying someone else to fill it.
    I don't follow? My point is the money would be going back into the economy, not sitting in a bank account somewhere.
    Its an old expression, have you never heard of it before?.

    If you pay someone to dig a hole, then pay someone else to fill the hole, then that money doesn't disappear. It pays salaries and they might seek to buy a spade sourced locally. You've absolutely nothing productive to show for it in the end, but the money hasn't disappeared.

    Doesn't justify doing it though in my opinion. I've never bought "salaries" as a justification for spending, because we could spend salaries on any meaningless garbage (like paying someone to dig a hole only to pay someone else to refill it). The justification for a project can't be its salaries it needs to be what the project gives to make those salaries worthwhile.
    You said HS2 would do nothing for the economy for the foreseeable future. I don't think that is true, regardless of whether anything useful has been built or not.
    Indeed, because I'm discounting salaries as anything it will do for the foreseeable future. If you were to do other projects instead then salaries would be spent but on something else.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,437
    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Not long back from my daily antisocial walk. I find growling at people if they approach too close is invaluable in maintaining the new etiquette of social distance.

    As an aside, I did purchase the Racing Post but there's not going to be much point and that news paper may come under pressure if betting shops are forced to close.

    Sainsbury's in East Ham High Street was busy but okay - most of the obvious shelves picked clean but even the fresh meat and fish looking depleted. Tesco's was a nightmare - the car park was as busy as Christmas Eve and the store was rammed. They have reduced their opening hours and are no longer 24 hours.

    The panic buying and stocking up continues unabated - why is no one in authority seeking to mitigate this? It needs some leadership (which will be a struggle for Johnson) to tell people there is no need to overstock, no need to hoard and to think of the more vulnerable in society.

    Hasn't he said that at the two previous press conferences, and the same message is being given by the retailers? It doesn't help that the media are making this seem like the end of days, which is undoubtedly encouraging it.
    The media has really been quite disgraceful in all this. It used to be in times of national crisis that the BBC could be relied upon as the calming voice of sanity, but even they have ramped the fear factor up to 11.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/yona1959/status/1239964597940977664

    HS2 now feels even more like a massive indulgence.

    I disagree. We are going to need some massive capital infrastructure projects to give a shock to an economy in cardiac arrest. HS2 is further down the track (apologies) than most alternatives.
    You're right its far down the track - its decades away.

    HS2 will do absolutely nothing for the economy for the foreseeable future. Doesn't mean its not a good investment for the long term but if we're talking 2033 [and that's being optimistic lets be honest] before its operational there's other short term projects that could be operational before then that will be needed too.
    They money spent up to that point doesn't disappear into the ether, it pays salaries and for materials, which will hopefully be locally sourced.
    So would paying someone to dig a hole and paying someone else to fill it.
    I don't follow? My point is the money would be going back into the economy, not sitting in a bank account somewhere.
    Its an old expression, have you never heard of it before?.

    If you pay someone to dig a hole, then pay someone else to fill the hole, then that money doesn't disappear. It pays salaries and they might seek to buy a spade sourced locally. You've absolutely nothing productive to show for it in the end, but the money hasn't disappeared.

    Doesn't justify doing it though in my opinion. I've never bought "salaries" as a justification for spending, because we could spend salaries on any meaningless garbage (like paying someone to dig a hole only to pay someone else to refill it). The justification for a project can't be its salaries it needs to be what the project gives to make those salaries worthwhile.
    You said HS2 would do nothing for the economy for the foreseeable future. I don't think that is true, regardless of whether anything useful has been built or not.
    Indeed, because I'm discounting salaries as anything it will do for the foreseeable future. If you were to do other projects instead then salaries would be spent but on something else.
    So you are discounting the parts where it has an immediate effect in order to claim it will have no effect? ;)
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/yona1959/status/1239964597940977664

    HS2 now feels even more like a massive indulgence.

    I disagree. We are going to need some massive capital infrastructure projects to give a shock to an economy in cardiac arrest. HS2 is further down the track (apologies) than most alternatives.
    You're right its far down the track - its decades away.

    HS2 will do absolutely nothing for the economy for the foreseeable future. Doesn't mean its not a good investment for the long term but if we're talking 2033 [and that's being optimistic lets be honest] before its operational there's other short term projects that could be operational before then that will be needed too.
    A fleet of tidal lagoons, however, with an 85% local content....paid for by the private sector. Diggers breaking ground this summer on the first - that works.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,703

    "We're increasing our tests from 5,000 to 10,000 a day and it may be of interest to the House to know that we are getting much closer to having a generally available test which will determine whether or not you have had the disease and that will truly be of huge benefit to this country in tackling the outbreak."

    Be interesting to see what rules they put in place for those that have and haven't had it.

    Game changer.
    We really need both the "instant screening test" and the post infection test. Then we can quickly isolate those that have it before they become super spreaders (especially those travelling from abroad) and also let out the ones that have recovered and aren't at risk.
    Agreed. This is the way we will come out of the lockdown without needing a vaccine.
    https://www.theengineer.co.uk/oxford-rapid-coronavirus-test/
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    It is odd how "perspective" arguments appeal to the terminally dim. All the objects which I deal with in day to day life are smaller than the planet Neptune. Does that put them into perspective? Should I pay more attention to the planet?

    It's a great point. You are in no way talking out of Uranus in making it.

    However, "perspective" can be a useful coping mechanism. For example, we hear about the virus 100% of the time now on the news and on here. It's this and only this. Yet in many many parts of the world things are so bad, compared to what we take for granted as our normality, that this crisis would represent a quite trivial problem. NHS falls over for a while. A deep recession. Job losses. Wealth destroyed. A significant number of mainly elderly people die. Offer that deal around the globe and there would be plenty of takers.

    Not saying we are getting overwrought - our own problems are always the biggest and I'm certainly very anxious and concerned - but I do think "perspective" in this sense is valuable and should be encouraged.
    Absolutely. But that is about regulating our emotions, which we can do without misrepresenting the factual situation. If things are bad, we should not panic, but that doesn't mean that misrepresenting the badness of things in an effort to curb panic is laudable.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,129
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:



    With a positive cornucopia of viruses and bugs to keep you entertained on the way. Must be a betting opportunity in there somewhere.

    Are you suggesting opening a betting shop in each tube station? There were supposed to be hundreds of retail opportunities available once the ticket offices closed.

    The Underground has been London's mobile germ warfare laboratory for 150 years or more - a little more respect, please.

    I was thinking something like a swab taken from your hand after a tube journey and spread betting on how many viruses/microbes it shows. It's a bit of a work in progress.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    "We're increasing our tests from 5,000 to 10,000 a day and it may be of interest to the House to know that we are getting much closer to having a generally available test which will determine whether or not you have had the disease and that will truly be of huge benefit to this country in tackling the outbreak."

    Be interesting to see what rules they put in place for those that have and haven't had it.

    Game changer.

    Something unremarked so far. The Chinese are pretty good at lockdowns, the Koreans on using their slightly Orwellian datastate to track infected patients. The UK are pretty damn good at developing new molecular diagnostics.
    Goodness how many people would want that test
    A chunk of the planet.

    Anyone who wants to travel.
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    To be fair, Stanley Johnson came across as a prat of the first order. You could see why his son has turned out like he has.

    He does irritate, that Stanley Johnson. Entitlement doesn't have an actual smell but if it did, he would reek of it. And he's passed it on very efficiently. Like they often do.
    He does have quite the interesting CV. He was the Newdigate prizeman 84 years after Oscar Wilde's famous win.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/yona1959/status/1239964597940977664

    HS2 now feels even more like a massive indulgence.

    I disagree. We are going to need some massive capital infrastructure projects to give a shock to an economy in cardiac arrest. HS2 is further down the track (apologies) than most alternatives.
    You're right its far down the track - its decades away.

    HS2 will do absolutely nothing for the economy for the foreseeable future. Doesn't mean its not a good investment for the long term but if we're talking 2033 [and that's being optimistic lets be honest] before its operational there's other short term projects that could be operational before then that will be needed too.
    They money spent up to that point doesn't disappear into the ether, it pays salaries and for materials, which will hopefully be locally sourced.
    So would paying someone to dig a hole and paying someone else to fill it.
    I don't follow? My point is the money would be going back into the economy, not sitting in a bank account somewhere.
    Its an old expression, have you never heard of it before?.

    If you pay someone to dig a hole, then pay someone else to fill the hole, then that money doesn't disappear. It pays salaries and they might seek to buy a spade sourced locally. You've absolutely nothing productive to show for it in the end, but the money hasn't disappeared.

    Doesn't justify doing it though in my opinion. I've never bought "salaries" as a justification for spending, because we could spend salaries on any meaningless garbage (like paying someone to dig a hole only to pay someone else to refill it). The justification for a project can't be its salaries it needs to be what the project gives to make those salaries worthwhile.
    You said HS2 would do nothing for the economy for the foreseeable future. I don't think that is true, regardless of whether anything useful has been built or not.
    Indeed, because I'm discounting salaries as anything it will do for the foreseeable future. If you were to do other projects instead then salaries would be spent but on something else.
    So you are discounting the parts where it has an immediate effect in order to claim it will have no effect? ;)
    No. Paying people has an immediate effect, but people could be paid on any number of projects.

    Paying for HS2 specifically won't have an effect until it is operational. If you want short term effects, then short term quick projects could get the same salaries and a more immediate boost. This is long term not short term.
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    Looks like schools to close on Friday for Easter.
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    Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, has ordered the rapid construction of a hospital in the capital Pyongyang amid speculation that the secretive dictatorship is suffering from an epidemic of coronavirus.

    Reports in today’s state media made no direct mention of the virus, and officially North Korea claims not to have had a single case, despite having a long and inconsistently policed border with China. But they transmitted a sense of urgency on the part of Mr Kim about completing the hospital, and included unusually frank language about the shortcomings of the country’s health system.

    Mr Kim said that Pyongyang General Hospital must be completed by the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea in October.

    In a speech marking the beginning of construction he was quoted as saying, “The country’s health and medical treatment sector … was thoroughly, scientifically, and honestly evaluated, and it pained my heart … that our country’s own capital does not wholly have modern medical treatment facilities.”

    North Korea has reported mobilising health workers and quarantining thousands of people, including foreign diplomats, but has yet to report a single infection by the coronavirus. Last week, the commander of American forces in South Korea said that North Korea probably has cases of the virus, based on observation of its arms forces, which suspended exercises and kept troops in barracks for a month.

    In an unconfirmed report, a South Korean newspaper reported rumours that North Koreans in parts of the country are starving to death, after the border with China was formally closed as an anti-virus precaution. The Chosun Ilbo newspaper said that the absence of cross-border trade deprived some people of food supplies.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/italian-coronavirus-deaths-hit-2-500-as-world-leaders-act-3lv69fv5f
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    twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,074
    edited March 2020
    Sturgeon laying the groundwork for schools to be closed up to the summer holidays I reckon.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961



    No. Paying people has an immediate effect, but people could be paid on any number of projects.

    Paying for HS2 specifically won't have an effect until it is operational. If you want short term effects, then short term quick projects could get the same salaries and a more immediate boost. This is long term not short term.

    That's fair enough. But your claim it would have no effect on the economy for the foreseeable future is wrong. It will, regardless of whether it is the right choice or not.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/yona1959/status/1239964597940977664

    HS2 now feels even more like a massive indulgence.

    I disagree. We are going to need some massive capital infrastructure projects to give a shock to an economy in cardiac arrest. HS2 is further down the track (apologies) than most alternatives.
    You're right its far down the track - its decades away.

    HS2 will do absolutely nothing for the economy for the foreseeable future. Doesn't mean its not a good investment for the long term but if we're talking 2033 [and that's being optimistic lets be honest] before its operational there's other short term projects that could be operational before then that will be needed too.
    A fleet of tidal lagoons, however, with an 85% local content....paid for by the private sector. Diggers breaking ground this summer on the first - that works.
    Would have immediate knock on consequences as a fleet of operational tidal lagoons would provide electricity that can then be used. An output to the project, not an input.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,291
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the true rate is so high compared to the reported why is the % of positive tests so low. Is it a high check rate of low probability infected hospital admissions ?>

    And contact tracing not being effective. There's no way only 1,500 people have it in the whole UK.
    200,000 confirmed cases of covid 19 worldwide according to John Hopkins University
    Thats 0.00002597402 of the worlds population
    The fraction with it is probably a fair bit higher.
    Im sure it is but that figure does put the "outbreak" into a bit of perspective
    Only to someone really terminally stupid.

    Are you a reincarnation of someone else?
    Why is it stupid, the Spanish Flu killed at least 50 million,
    Of the dozens of possible answers to this, the two most easy to understand

    1. Someone tells you that their 5 year old child has died. Do you console them with the thought that the Spanish Flu killed at least 50 million? Because of "perspective"?

    2. The Spanish Flu is a thing which has happened. It had a beginning, a middle and an end. Has Covid 19 had 1, 2 or all 3 of those things? What does that tell you about the comparability of the statistics?
    Don't bother, this guy obviously isn't arguing in good faith
    It is odd how "perspective" arguments appeal to the terminally dim. All the objects which I deal with in day to day life are smaller than the planet Neptune. Does that put them into perspective? Should I pay more attention to the planet?
    You need to tell Peter Singer he's terminally dim.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Labour probably only needs to recover to circa 260 seats given the Anti-Tory bloc in Scotland. I also expect some Labour recovery in Scotland under Starmer.

    Then again you expected incumbency to save Labour MPs in Scotland last year.
    Not specifically in Scotland. My point re-incumbency related to GB as a whole - and given that Labour held on to half of the gains made in 2017 I feel vindicated on that. Re-Scotland I had suggested Labour gains from SNP in the event of a close GB election in which Labour was clearly very competitive. That scenario did not arise.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the true rate is so high compared to the reported why is the % of positive tests so low. Is it a high check rate of low probability infected hospital admissions ?>

    And contact tracing not being effective. There's no way only 1,500 people have it in the whole UK.
    200,000 confirmed cases of covid 19 worldwide according to John Hopkins University
    Thats 0.00002597402 of the worlds population
    The fraction with it is probably a fair bit higher.
    Im sure it is but that figure does put the "outbreak" into a bit of perspective
    Only to someone really terminally stupid.

    Are you a reincarnation of someone else?
    Why is it stupid, the Spanish Flu killed at least 50 million,
    Of the dozens of possible answers to this, the two most easy to understand

    1. Someone tells you that their 5 year old child has died. Do you console them with the thought that the Spanish Flu killed at least 50 million? Because of "perspective"?

    2. The Spanish Flu is a thing which has happened. It had a beginning, a middle and an end. Has Covid 19 had 1, 2 or all 3 of those things? What does that tell you about the comparability of the statistics?
    Don't bother, this guy obviously isn't arguing in good faith
    It is odd how "perspective" arguments appeal to the terminally dim. All the objects which I deal with in day to day life are smaller than the planet Neptune. Does that put them into perspective? Should I pay more attention to the planet?
    You need to tell Peter Singer he's terminally dim.
    That's a challenge I feel I can rise to.
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    Scottish schools also closing from Friday, looks likely England will follow.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:



    No. Paying people has an immediate effect, but people could be paid on any number of projects.

    Paying for HS2 specifically won't have an effect until it is operational. If you want short term effects, then short term quick projects could get the same salaries and a more immediate boost. This is long term not short term.

    That's fair enough. But your claim it would have no effect on the economy for the foreseeable future is wrong. It will, regardless of whether it is the right choice or not.
    No, it won't. Paying people will have an impact for the foreseeable future, but HS2 won't. If the government abandoned HS2 and took up other projects (or took up other projects as well as HS2) people would be paid either way.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    RobD said:



    No. Paying people has an immediate effect, but people could be paid on any number of projects.

    Paying for HS2 specifically won't have an effect until it is operational. If you want short term effects, then short term quick projects could get the same salaries and a more immediate boost. This is long term not short term.

    That's fair enough. But your claim it would have no effect on the economy for the foreseeable future is wrong. It will, regardless of whether it is the right choice or not.
    No, it won't. Paying people will have an impact for the foreseeable future, but HS2 won't. If the government abandoned HS2 and took up other projects (or took up other projects as well as HS2) people would be paid either way.
    So because HS2 involves paying people it will have an impact? ;)
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited March 2020
    RobD said:

    RobD said:



    No. Paying people has an immediate effect, but people could be paid on any number of projects.

    Paying for HS2 specifically won't have an effect until it is operational. If you want short term effects, then short term quick projects could get the same salaries and a more immediate boost. This is long term not short term.

    That's fair enough. But your claim it would have no effect on the economy for the foreseeable future is wrong. It will, regardless of whether it is the right choice or not.
    No, it won't. Paying people will have an impact for the foreseeable future, but HS2 won't. If the government abandoned HS2 and took up other projects (or took up other projects as well as HS2) people would be paid either way.
    So because HS2 involves paying people it will have an impact? ;)
    Not meaningfully.

    Yes pedantically and meaninglessly.
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    Eurovision is officially cancelled. This is the final straw.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306

    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/yona1959/status/1239964597940977664

    HS2 now feels even more like a massive indulgence.

    I disagree. We are going to need some massive capital infrastructure projects to give a shock to an economy in cardiac arrest. HS2 is further down the track (apologies) than most alternatives.
    You're right its far down the track - its decades away.

    HS2 will do absolutely nothing for the economy for the foreseeable future. Doesn't mean its not a good investment for the long term but if we're talking 2033 [and that's being optimistic lets be honest] before its operational there's other short term projects that could be operational before then that will be needed too.
    A fleet of tidal lagoons, however, with an 85% local content....paid for by the private sector. Diggers breaking ground this summer on the first - that works.
    YES. Just tell me where to sign the petition, write a rude letter to an MP, wave a placard etc.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,903

    DougSeal said:

    Theresa May, the former PM, asks if Johnson agrees that it may be difficult to ease the social isolation rules before a vaccine is necessary. Does the PM agree, and how will the government have an exit strategy from these measures.

    Johnson says the government’s policy is to push down the peak of the epidemic. And he says he is confident that the country will get through this.


    Anybody in doubt, until there is a vaccine, normal life won't be fully resuming.

    It was a question not a statement of fact. Can we take this one day at a time and take our cue from countries further along the epidemic than we are?
    It is a statement of fact in the Imperial report and why Boris can't give any promises in response to this question.
    That is a report. Its findings may be powerful and convincing, but since they don't issue directly from the mouth of God, they do not represent unchallengeable truth. That's not a verdict on the quality of the report (wouldn't dream of it) but goes for reports in general.
    Assume you have better evidence, presumably the cranky thoughts that whistle around inside your head?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    RobD said:

    RobD said:



    No. Paying people has an immediate effect, but people could be paid on any number of projects.

    Paying for HS2 specifically won't have an effect until it is operational. If you want short term effects, then short term quick projects could get the same salaries and a more immediate boost. This is long term not short term.

    That's fair enough. But your claim it would have no effect on the economy for the foreseeable future is wrong. It will, regardless of whether it is the right choice or not.
    No, it won't. Paying people will have an impact for the foreseeable future, but HS2 won't. If the government abandoned HS2 and took up other projects (or took up other projects as well as HS2) people would be paid either way.
    So because HS2 involves paying people it will have an impact? ;)
    Not meaningfully.

    Yes pedantically and meaninglessly.
    I am being serious. Regardless of the project, money for wages and supplies will go back into the economy. It can be for building a complete boondoggle, but that doesn't mean the money just disappears.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,495
    Good news at last: Eurovision Song Contest cancelled. Every cloud.....
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    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Perhaps the Chinese could build HS2 as recompense for giving us their bat munching flu ?

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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Schools in scotland closing Friday - not open before summer holidays......
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,111

    DougSeal said:

    Theresa May, the former PM, asks if Johnson agrees that it may be difficult to ease the social isolation rules before a vaccine is necessary. Does the PM agree, and how will the government have an exit strategy from these measures.

    Johnson says the government’s policy is to push down the peak of the epidemic. And he says he is confident that the country will get through this.


    Anybody in doubt, until there is a vaccine, normal life won't be fully resuming.

    It was a question not a statement of fact. Can we take this one day at a time and take our cue from countries further along the epidemic than we are?
    It is a statement of fact in the Imperial report and why Boris can't give any promises in response to this question.
    That is a report. Its findings may be powerful and convincing, but since they don't issue directly from the mouth of God, they do not represent unchallengeable truth. That's not a verdict on the quality of the report (wouldn't dream of it) but goes for reports in general.
    Assume you have better evidence, presumably the cranky thoughts that whistle around inside your head?
    The Imperial report is not evidence, it is an interpretation of evidence. That interpretation has been challenged, in the report I linked to downthread for example.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Floater said:

    Schools in scotland closing Friday - not open before summer holidays......

    If the info I talked about earlier this week is correct yet another example of Sturgeon getting in first
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    algarkirk said:

    Good news at last: Eurovision Song Contest cancelled. Every cloud.....

    Heartless bastard.....
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,106

    He does have quite the interesting CV. He was the Newdigate prizeman 84 years after Oscar Wilde's famous win.

    So he did. They are a talented family in some respects. It would be churlish not to recognize that. And I am not churlish. I'm a hard left social democrat.
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    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Nigelb said:

    "We're increasing our tests from 5,000 to 10,000 a day and it may be of interest to the House to know that we are getting much closer to having a generally available test which will determine whether or not you have had the disease and that will truly be of huge benefit to this country in tackling the outbreak."

    Be interesting to see what rules they put in place for those that have and haven't had it.

    Game changer.

    Something unremarked so far. The Chinese are pretty good at lockdowns, the Koreans on using their slightly Orwellian datastate to track infected patients. The UK are pretty damn good at developing new molecular diagnostics.
    Needs to be available in bulk, and accurate, though.

    I think they can be with sufficient will.

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    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Schools in scotland closing Friday - not open before summer holidays......

    If the info I talked about earlier this week is correct yet another example of Sturgeon getting in first
    I don't think she is saying anything dramatic and shocking. TBH I was surprised that schools were left open this week.

    They need a plan for:
    1 Children of key workers whether that be emergency services, supermarkets or the people who keep the internet running
    2 Vulnerable children where school is the only respite they get from the scum they call mum and dad
    3 Very poor children where school is the only place they get a healthy / hot / any meal
    4 Everyone due to sit GSCEs / A-Levels in a few weeks
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,106

    Agreed. This is the way we will come out of the lockdown without needing a vaccine.

    A test to see if you have had the virus would be great.

    But unless I've missed something it is not as yet known that getting it and recovering gives immunity for any length of time?
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135

    justin124 said:

    Labour probably only needs to recover to circa 260 seats given the Anti-Tory bloc in Scotland. I also expect some Labour recovery in Scotland under Starmer.

    Then again you expected incumbency to save Labour MPs in Scotland last year.
    It worked!
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Schools in scotland closing Friday - not open before summer holidays......

    If the info I talked about earlier this week is correct yet another example of Sturgeon getting in first
    I don't think she is saying anything dramatic and shocking. TBH I was surprised that schools were left open this week.

    They need a plan for:
    1 Children of key workers whether that be emergency services, supermarkets or the people who keep the internet running
    2 Vulnerable children where school is the only respite they get from the scum they call mum and dad
    3 Very poor children where school is the only place they get a healthy / hot / any meal
    4 Everyone due to sit GSCEs / A-Levels in a few weeks
    I think the exams will be off
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    edited March 2020
    justin124 said:

    Labour probably only needs to recover to circa 260 seats given the Anti-Tory bloc in Scotland. I also expect some Labour recovery in Scotland under Starmer.

    I would say Labour actually needs to get to 270 to 280 seats if the LDs do not gain any seats as any Labour gains from the SNP make no net change in the anti Tory block.
    If the LDs reach 20 to 30 seats however then yes 260 seats for Labour would be enough to form a minority or coalition Labour government with LD and SNP support
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    BBC news confirms Eurovision song contest cancelled this year
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    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Schools in scotland closing Friday - not open before summer holidays......

    If the info I talked about earlier this week is correct yet another example of Sturgeon getting in first
    I don't think she is saying anything dramatic and shocking. TBH I was surprised that schools were left open this week.

    They need a plan for:
    1 Children of key workers whether that be emergency services, supermarkets or the people who keep the internet running
    2 Vulnerable children where school is the only respite they get from the scum they call mum and dad
    3 Very poor children where school is the only place they get a healthy / hot / any meal
    4 Everyone due to sit GSCEs / A-Levels in a few weeks
    I think the exams will be off
    Sure, that seems obvious. So universities are intaking in September based on...?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Look on the bright side , we wont be last this year.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920
    kinabalu said:

    Agreed. This is the way we will come out of the lockdown without needing a vaccine.

    A test to see if you have had the virus would be great.

    But unless I've missed something it is not as yet known that getting it and recovering gives immunity for any length of time?
    Typically, it is only for viruses that mutate very rapidly (like the common cold) where immunity does not last a long time. There is no indication (yet) that this is a rapidly mutating virus. (Indeed, it might be better if it were because it would likely lose potency if it were changing quickly.)
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,106
    HYUFD said:

    BBC news confirms Eurovision song contest cancelled this year

    But the Crucible is still on. April 18th. This is becoming totemic for me.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited March 2020
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    Labour probably only needs to recover to circa 260 seats given the Anti-Tory bloc in Scotland. I also expect some Labour recovery in Scotland under Starmer.

    I would say Labour actually needs to get to 280 to 290 seats if the LDs do not gain any seats as any Labour gains from the SNP make no net change in the anti Tory block.
    If the LDs reach 30 to 40 seats however then yes 260 seats for Labour would be enough to form a minority or coalition Labour government with LD and SNP support
    I don't disagree with that really. Labour would only need 260 or so on the basis of the SNP still having circa 45 seats.Were Labour to gain at SNP expense to reach 270 seats, the SNP would only need circa 35.
This discussion has been closed.