politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The rise and rise of Richi Sunak as seen on the Betfair exchan

NerysHughes said:

RobD said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

If the true rate is so high compared to the reported why is the % of positive tests so low. Is it a high check rate of low probability infected hospital admissions ?>

And contact tracing not being effective. There's no way only 1,500 people have it in the whole UK.

200,000 confirmed cases of covid 19 worldwide according to John Hopkins University

Thats 0.00002597402 of the worlds population

The fraction with it is probably a fair bit higher.

Im sure it is but that figure does put the "outbreak" into a bit of perspective

I'm not sure it does, as it doesn't capture the exponential growth of cases that is undoubtedly to come. And I'm not sure why outbreak is in quotation marks there.

NerysHughes said:

RobD said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

If the true rate is so high compared to the reported why is the % of positive tests so low. Is it a high check rate of low probability infected hospital admissions ?>

And contact tracing not being effective. There's no way only 1,500 people have it in the whole UK.

200,000 confirmed cases of covid 19 worldwide according to John Hopkins University

Thats 0.00002597402 of the worlds population

The fraction with it is probably a fair bit higher.

Im sure it is but that figure does put the "outbreak" into a bit of perspective

I'm guessing you're one of the ones that witters on about CO2 comprising only 0.04% of the atmosphere too.

The things you learn...
We export (or used to do so) most of our whelk catch to South Korea;
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/18/coronavirus-severe-shock-to-uk-fishing-as-markets-dry-up

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

Going to be a very weird PMQs, with only a handful of MPs dotted around the chamber.....

I presume Jezza is still going to ignore government advice and keep coming into work.

Oh yes....

Corbo sitting too near to Dawn Butler.

isam said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

MarqueeMark said:

Anabobazina said:

MarqueeMark said:

GideonWise said:

Nigelb said:

DougSeal said:

I post without comment a counterpoint to the Imperial College study.

https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions

It is an interesting argument, which seems intuitively correct:

...However, they make structural mistakes in analyzing outbreak response. They ignore standard Contact Tracing [2] allowing isolation of infected prior to symptoms. They also ignore door-to-door monitoring to identify cases with symptoms [3]. Their conclusions that there will be resurgent outbreaks are wrong. After a few weeks of lockdown almost all infectious people are identified and their contacts are isolated prior to symptoms and cannot infect others [4]. The outbreak can be stopped completely with no resurgence as in China, where new cases were down to one yesterday, after excluding imported international travelers that are quarantined.

Their assumptions are equivalent to ergodicity, as they consider new infections to be a function of infected fraction and immunity, and not influenced by where in the trajectory of the outbreak they are, distinguishing going up from going down...

Of course it is dependent on sufficiently reducing the number of new cases via lockdown so that contact tracing becomes effective again.

And 'sufficiently' is likely not trivial to define.

More widespread testing would, of course, reduce modelling uncertainties.

I agree there is some merit in this critique. The expert input for this decision by the government is not just coming from this Imperial team, there is at least one more academic team who are experts in Infectious Disease Models and PHE will have their own experts. Hopefully the different groups have taken different approaches to conceptualising this problem.


Crucially, it is important not to forget how to think.

A month ago it looked like the End of Days in much of Asia, not just China with its welded homes.

Today? Not so much.

In six weeks, will be thinking "What was THAT all about?"

Fair comment. I spoke with my Shanghai-based colleague yesterday in the SMT meeting. She spent most of the session reassuring her English colleagues that life would eventually return to normal and not to worry too much. It was good to talk to her actually!

Of course, it does require people not to be twats, hunker down for a few weeks and let the forest fire burn out for lack of trees.

C'mon, HM the Q - tell the nation what to do. It could be the, er, crowning moment of your entire reign.

Agreed, the bragging about pub visits on here last night was a low point for PB.

The two main posters making such bragging rights were either deliberately trying to anger other posters or were otherwise insane

I passed about eight or nine pubs/bars/restaurants on my home last night. All of them had customers - not many, but the amount you'd expect on a Tuesday night.

If pubs only have 8-9 people in them, I think the advice is working. If they are closed, landlords would have ‘friends’ in for a lock in anyway

In some pubs I know in N Essex 8-9 people would be quite a crowd

Gardenwalker said:

OldKingCole said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

GideonWise said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Guido being massive irresponsible again. When will they all learn, this is not a game, it is not about who gets the scoop first. This is about what is best for the nation.

This pandemic has woken me up to the fact that Guido is a ****.

He is far from the only one. F##king Peston yesterday wasting air with a stupid jibe question about Boris' dad saying he is still going to the pub.

To be fair, Stanley Johnson came across as a prat of the first order. You could see why his son has turned out like he has.

Peston is irresponsible. I haven’t trusted him since Northern Rock.
Stanley is a prat, so is his son.
GMTV also to blame for giving him airtime. It’s not time to debate whether fat over-privilege twats are willing to follow government advice or not.

R4 Today gave airtime on Monday to the dullard sister and her pointless book. Good thing that there isn't a national emergency or anything.

Marxist nutters gonna nut.
https://twitter.com/tom_gann/status/1240016236085481476?s=21

Wonder if it is worth putting money into book delivery companies such as Waterstone's and Abebooks, if Amazon falls over.

I am untypical in that I couldn't give a fig about the loss of soap operas or sporting fixtures but losing access to books???

I believe there was a significant uptick in poetry sales during the world wars so possibly good news for Simon Armitage (poet laureate with a popular touch - bit like Betjeman)

Pagan2 said:

So many companies pulling their weight...switching manufacture, freebies and discounts for medical staff then this

https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20200317/04381644114/volunteers-3d-print-unobtainable-11000-valve-1-to-keep-covid-19-patients-alive-original-manufacturer-threatens-to-sue.shtml

...Fracassi admits that his 3D-printed versions might not be very durable or re-usable. But when it's possible to make replacements so cheaply -- each 3D-printed part costs just one euro, or roughly a dollar -- that isn't a problem. At least it wouldn't be, except for that threat of legal action, which is also why Fracassi doesn't dare share his 3D file with other hospitals, despite their desperate need for these valves.
And if you're wondering why the original manufacturer would risk what is bound to be awful publicity for its actions, over something that only costs one euro to make, a detail in the Business Insider Italia article provides an explanation: the official list price for a single valve is 10,000 euros...

Luckyguy1983 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/BrewDog/status/1240208876408123393

They must read pb

This is clever, and, I'm surprised more clothes factories are not doing the same with masks. A mask is only a bit of face lingerie in essence.

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1240247008897708033

Boris at PMQs confirms legislation will be brought forward to protect private tenants from being evicted

Corbo doesn't watch the Boris & the boffins show where the point about testing nhs people was made.

Johnson says testing is move up to 25,000 tests a day.

Good....To put that in perspective that is 10,000 more than SK at peak.

JM1 said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Gardenwalker said:

I have decided to be positive today.
(EasyJet by the way, are acting on a biz assumption that they will back at 50% service levels in May).

I think there is an iceberg effect, which tests haven’t been picking up.
Therefore, real infections are much higher.
But real emergency cases are much lower, as a %.

I also think the virus is more susceptible to strong but not disruptive social distancing / isolation measures than Imperial’s model suggests.

I also think we’ll find at least a partly effective vaccine in 2020.

None of this means that ICUs will not be overloaded, it is too late to avoid that. However it does mean that “lock down”, when it comes, would be many weeks, not many months.

Although we may be be battling this “for two years”, perhaps 18 months of that will be relatively unobtrusive, with new measures around, say, temperature checks to access certain buildings, continuation of current advice to quarantine in case of symptoms for 7-14 days etc.

The above is all assumption, and maybe hopelessly optimistic, but cannot I think he disproven by the evidence on the table today.

Fingers crossed.

Overall, I think this is fairly realistic (bar the 50% flying in May - that's no way going to happen - we are going to have travel restrictions for quite a period).

Yes, I think a lot of that is likely, plus getting a better handle on symptom lessening treatment prior to a vaccine (the Italians are trying plenty of things, but any successes aren't coming through in the figures so far), but we're not there yet.

Hancock in too close proximity to Truss.

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

But it should be relative. Would you rather be Italy, Spain, France, USA or UK now?

IMO the European countries with the best prospects the other side of this crisis are those with a good healthcare system and in the Euro.

But the US does look screwed. I'd rather be us than them.

I would never bet against the US. Obviously with Orange Man gone. They have shown time and time again they can when they get their arse in gear do incredible things.

https://twitter.com/USAmbUK/status/1240245743237107717?s=20

Nigelb said:

Pagan2 said:

So many companies pulling their weight...switching manufacture, freebies and discounts for medical staff then this

https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20200317/04381644114/volunteers-3d-print-unobtainable-11000-valve-1-to-keep-covid-19-patients-alive-original-manufacturer-threatens-to-sue.shtml

...Fracassi admits that his 3D-printed versions might not be very durable or re-usable. But when it's possible to make replacements so cheaply -- each 3D-printed part costs just one euro, or roughly a dollar -- that isn't a problem. At least it wouldn't be, except for that threat of legal action, which is also why Fracassi doesn't dare share his 3D file with other hospitals, despite their desperate need for these valves.
And if you're wondering why the original manufacturer would risk what is bound to be awful publicity for its actions, over something that only costs one euro to make, a detail in the Business Insider Italia article provides an explanation: the official list price for a single valve is 10,000 euros...

Shades of SpaceX. If you don't know the story, the aerospace industry is rife with this kind of stuff - outsource ten times over, each level adding profit.

Elon Musk simply asked how much each component should cost to make. Then added 40% for profit/variation. If it was more than that, bought the manufacturing in house. And collapsed the price of rockets.

At one hospital my children use, someone realised that the ideal drawers for storing minor supplies - dressings, saline amuples etc. were mechanics tool chests. Identical in function to the "proper" item, but 10 times cheaper. They even won an award for the idea.

Six months later, all gone and replaced with the "proper" item. The importer of that special set of drawers is in the constituency of a certain high ranking opposition MP. He reached out and had the problem of the NHS buying drawers too cheaply fixed.

Has the SNP promoted a UBI before?

geoffw said:

Has the SNP promoted a UBI before?

Seem to remember there was some sort of trial in Scotland (or at least talk of one)

Good to see Timpson back as an MP.

OldKingCole said:

To be fair, Stanley Johnson came across as a prat of the first order. You could see why his son has turned out like he has.

He does irritate, that Stanley Johnson. Entitlement doesn't have an actual smell but if it did, he would reek of it. And he's passed it on very efficiently. Like they often do.

Just been made aware of the book ‘Sometimes A Great Notion’ excitedly looking at amazon to buy and come across the film... directed by and starring Paul Newman! Oh my days

It’s a rare thing, a film not available on sky or Netflix and the dvd is £20!

Help me Rhondda

FrancisUrquhart said:

egg said:

So with the soaps filming cancelled and running out of footage, which is a shame there is one heck of a storyline here, Bojo has told everyone not to go in the Vic, and we know they’ve had cash flow problems for years. Why don’t they show the first episodes and on in the slot? Beeb could with eastenders, not sure ITV could? Look at all the top stars started out on the street, it would be fascinating.

Not sure what could be done for sport lovers, the whole point these days it is live isn’t it?

Some people are already been creative. Dropkick Murphys live streamed their St Patrick days concert for free across a load of platform to over a million people last night. And of course it is there on "catchup".

There is now twitch, youtube, fb that all provide live streaming options. Plenty of opportunity for those that have creative talents to entertainment the masses.

I understand some films are being released to purchase (rent) on your tv's rather than via cinemas

30,000 self employed in the Vauxhall constiteuncy???

There can't be THAT many drug dealers, surely?

Fenster said:

Agree. I avoid London at all costs. Last year it took me three hours to drive from near the Olympic Stadium to Hammersmith. God knows how Londonders tolerate that

Londoners know about this new-fangled thing called the Underground, which would let you do the same journey in about 50 minutes.

Dura_Ace said:

Malmesbury said:

Shades of SpaceX. If you don't know the story, the aerospace industry is rife with this kind of stuff - outsource ten times over, each level adding profit.

Rolls Royce used to charge the MoD about 90 quid for some seal on the Pegasus 106. Direct from the supplier they cost about 72p.

There was a similar gouging in the NCB decdaes back, for a fastening on pit props if I remember right.

NerysHughes said:

IshmaelZ said:

NerysHughes said:

IshmaelZ said:

NerysHughes said:

RobD said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

If the true rate is so high compared to the reported why is the % of positive tests so low. Is it a high check rate of low probability infected hospital admissions ?>

And contact tracing not being effective. There's no way only 1,500 people have it in the whole UK.

200,000 confirmed cases of covid 19 worldwide according to John Hopkins University

Thats 0.00002597402 of the worlds population

The fraction with it is probably a fair bit higher.

Im sure it is but that figure does put the "outbreak" into a bit of perspective

Only to someone really terminally stupid.

Are you a reincarnation of someone else?

Why is it stupid, the Spanish Flu killed at least 50 million,

Of the dozens of possible answers to this, the two most easy to understand

1. Someone tells you that their 5 year old child has died. Do you console them with the thought that the Spanish Flu killed at least 50 million? Because of "perspective"?

2. The Spanish Flu is a thing which has happened. It had a beginning, a middle and an end. Has Covid 19 had 1, 2 or all 3 of those things? What does that tell you about the comparability of the statistics?

The comparability is in the death rate and the infection rate

Dig up numbers for the Spanish flu after 3 months and not 3 years then.

Floater said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

egg said:

So with the soaps filming cancelled and running out of footage, which is a shame there is one heck of a storyline here, Bojo has told everyone not to go in the Vic, and we know they’ve had cash flow problems for years. Why don’t they show the first episodes and on in the slot? Beeb could with eastenders, not sure ITV could? Look at all the top stars started out on the street, it would be fascinating.

Not sure what could be done for sport lovers, the whole point these days it is live isn’t it?

Some people are already been creative. Dropkick Murphys live streamed their St Patrick days concert for free across a load of platform to over a million people last night. And of course it is there on "catchup".

There is now twitch, youtube, fb that all provide live streaming options. Plenty of opportunity for those that have creative talents to entertainment the masses.

I understand some films are being released to purchase (rent) on your tv's rather than via cinemas

Indeed - Universal have announced 16 of their big upcoming movies will be released in cinemas and online simultaneously.

FrancisUrquhart said:

He's over 70. If he gets it, the chances of him requiring hospitalization are high and if so given his age, an ICU bed. He is putting others at risk.

And it is clear that within the Westminster cliche it is definitely circulating.

So you are angry with him for not complying because he is high profile and it is both risky and sets a bad example. I disagree but I get that.

Here's what I don't get though. Stanley Johnson (also high profile) witters on prime TV about how he would go down the pub. Surely even more irresponsible than Jez. JC is working in an arguably vital job not going to the pub.

Yet you slag off Peston for raising this matter. For wasting time on trivia.

Busted, there, aren't you?

https://img2.rtve.es/rtve/minutoaminuto/userfiles/image/datoshoy(1).jpg

CatMan said:

Oil dropping like a stone again. Remember when there was a row about petrol taxes going up? Happy days...

Oil is now back to where it was in early 2016. I can't for the life of me remember why it went so low then. Something to do with an OPEC/non-OPEC price war?

This is horribly morbid but I am finding myself waiting everyday for the mortality bulletin a la Defoe's Journal of the Plague Year. Number of cases is a bit meaningless given the disparity of daily testing figures but we have a pretty solid handle on how many people are getting it seriously through the dath rates and thus how our ICU's will be able to cope/are coping.

I am a terrible human being I know.

DavidL said:

Burgessian said:

Wonder if it is worth putting money into book delivery companies such as Waterstone's and Abebooks, if Amazon falls over.

I am untypical in that I couldn't give a fig about the loss of soap operas or sporting fixtures but losing access to books???

I believe there was a significant uptick in poetry sales during the world wars so possibly good news for Simon Armitage (poet laureate with a popular touch - bit like Betjeman)

Amazon fall over???? They have enough cash reserves to see out the decade.

I took that to mean were unable to cope with the demand.

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

If the true rate is so high compared to the reported why is the % of positive tests so low. Is it a high check rate of low probability infected hospital admissions ?>

And contact tracing not being effective. There's no way only 1,500 people have it in the whole UK.

200,000 confirmed cases of covid 19 worldwide according to John Hopkins University

Thats 0.00002597402 of the worlds population

What is your point in constantly downplaying the importance of the problem.

Do you seriously believe that governments across the globe are taking the measures they are for a giggle?

All your posts do is encourage idiots to believe it's just like the flu and let's all go down the pub.

Fysics_Teacher said:

DavidL said:

Burgessian said:

Wonder if it is worth putting money into book delivery companies such as Waterstone's and Abebooks, if Amazon falls over.

I am untypical in that I couldn't give a fig about the loss of soap operas or sporting fixtures but losing access to books???

I believe there was a significant uptick in poetry sales during the world wars so possibly good news for Simon Armitage (poet laureate with a popular touch - bit like Betjeman)

Amazon fall over???? They have enough cash reserves to see out the decade.

I took that to mean were unable to cope with the demand.

Amazon have already adjusted. They aren't taking any new stock from 3rd party sellers of non-essential crap and are hiring new employees.

egg said:

Floater said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

egg said:

So with the soaps filming cancelled and running out of footage, which is a shame there is one heck of a storyline here, Bojo has told everyone not to go in the Vic, and we know they’ve had cash flow problems for years. Why don’t they show the first episodes and on in the slot? Beeb could with eastenders, not sure ITV could? Look at all the top stars started out on the street, it would be fascinating.

Not sure what could be done for sport lovers, the whole point these days it is live isn’t it?

Some people are already been creative. Dropkick Murphys live streamed their St Patrick days concert for free across a load of platform to over a million people last night. And of course it is there on "catchup".

There is now twitch, youtube, fb that all provide live streaming options. Plenty of opportunity for those that have creative talents to entertainment the masses.

I understand some films are being released to purchase (rent) on your tv's rather than via cinemas

So an effect of this could be more people particularly old people discovering what you tube and other channels have to offer, as entertainment. As live comedy and music not just from the can.

Gaming as well, both board gaming, computer and video gaming could prove popular. I’ve turned to FM20 for my football fix. I’ve dowloaded Democracy 3 yesterday to iPad. I’m eyeing CKII

My gaming days ended when I discovered girls and my Commodore-64 got ditched. I may have to restart them. Wonder if there's a decent Paradroid emulator out there.

Pagan2 said:

Malmesbury said:

Nigelb said:

Pagan2 said:

So many companies pulling their weight...switching manufacture, freebies and discounts for medical staff then this

https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20200317/04381644114/volunteers-3d-print-unobtainable-11000-valve-1-to-keep-covid-19-patients-alive-original-manufacturer-threatens-to-sue.shtml

...Fracassi admits that his 3D-printed versions might not be very durable or re-usable. But when it's possible to make replacements so cheaply -- each 3D-printed part costs just one euro, or roughly a dollar -- that isn't a problem. At least it wouldn't be, except for that threat of legal action, which is also why Fracassi doesn't dare share his 3D file with other hospitals, despite their desperate need for these valves.
And if you're wondering why the original manufacturer would risk what is bound to be awful publicity for its actions, over something that only costs one euro to make, a detail in the Business Insider Italia article provides an explanation: the official list price for a single valve is 10,000 euros...

Shades of SpaceX. If you don't know the story, the aerospace industry is rife with this kind of stuff - outsource ten times over, each level adding profit.

Elon Musk simply asked how much each component should cost to make. Then added 40% for profit/variation. If it was more than that, bought the manufacturing in house. And collapsed the price of rockets.

At one hospital my children use, someone realised that the ideal drawers for storing minor supplies - dressings, saline amuples etc. were mechanics tool chests. Identical in function to the "proper" item, but 10 times cheaper. They even won an award for the idea.

Six months later, all gone and replaced with the "proper" item. The importer of that special set of drawers is in the constituency of a certain high ranking opposition MP. He reached out and had the problem of the NHS buying drawers too cheaply fixed.

Often sadly seems to be the case throughout public sector, go for a more expensive option for 'reasons' sometimes in the private sector too

Oh yes - a classic used to be: for home working you had to use the company provided broad band package. Which was generally more expensive and lower value than the privately purchased equivalent. In one case I know of, the manager who signed the contract went to work for the ISP in question, 6 months later.

IshmaelZ said:

Stereotomy said:

IshmaelZ said:

NerysHughes said:

IshmaelZ said:

NerysHughes said:

RobD said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

If the true rate is so high compared to the reported why is the % of positive tests so low. Is it a high check rate of low probability infected hospital admissions ?>

And contact tracing not being effective. There's no way only 1,500 people have it in the whole UK.

200,000 confirmed cases of covid 19 worldwide according to John Hopkins University

Thats 0.00002597402 of the worlds population

The fraction with it is probably a fair bit higher.

Im sure it is but that figure does put the "outbreak" into a bit of perspective

Only to someone really terminally stupid.

Are you a reincarnation of someone else?

Why is it stupid, the Spanish Flu killed at least 50 million,

Of the dozens of possible answers to this, the two most easy to understand

1. Someone tells you that their 5 year old child has died. Do you console them with the thought that the Spanish Flu killed at least 50 million? Because of "perspective"?

2. The Spanish Flu is a thing which has happened. It had a beginning, a middle and an end. Has Covid 19 had 1, 2 or all 3 of those things? What does that tell you about the comparability of the statistics?

Don't bother, this guy obviously isn't arguing in good faith

It is odd how "perspective" arguments appeal to the terminally dim. All the objects which I deal with in day to day life are smaller than the planet Neptune. Does that put them into perspective? Should I pay more attention to the planet?

I don't think there is any need for personal invective. It is all very well saying 'what price a life', but as discussed yesterday, we price lives all the time - it is the bread and butter of our NHS.

Anabobazina said:

I see the daily dose of moronic anti London comments is being administered again

Knock Knock
"Who's there?"
"Your neighbour..."
"Look mate, this is London. I don't want to know you. I will only acknowledge you if you play your tunes too loud, and then I'm calling the police. OK

IshmaelZ said:

Stereotomy said:

IshmaelZ said:

NerysHughes said:

IshmaelZ said:

NerysHughes said:

RobD said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

If the true rate is so high compared to the reported why is the % of positive tests so low. Is it a high check rate of low probability infected hospital admissions ?>

And contact tracing not being effective. There's no way only 1,500 people have it in the whole UK.

200,000 confirmed cases of covid 19 worldwide according to John Hopkins University

Thats 0.00002597402 of the worlds population

The fraction with it is probably a fair bit higher.

Im sure it is but that figure does put the "outbreak" into a bit of perspective

Only to someone really terminally stupid.

Are you a reincarnation of someone else?

Why is it stupid, the Spanish Flu killed at least 50 million,

Of the dozens of possible answers to this, the two most easy to understand

1. Someone tells you that their 5 year old child has died. Do you console them with the thought that the Spanish Flu killed at least 50 million? Because of "perspective"?

2. The Spanish Flu is a thing which has happened. It had a beginning, a middle and an end. Has Covid 19 had 1, 2 or all 3 of those things? What does that tell you about the comparability of the statistics?

Don't bother, this guy obviously isn't arguing in good faith

It is odd how "perspective" arguments appeal to the terminally dim. All the objects which I deal with in day to day life are smaller than the planet Neptune. Does that put them into perspective? Should I pay more attention to the planet?

In the Hitch-Hiker’s Guide the “total perspective vortex” which showed you exactly how big you were compared to the universe was used as an ultimate punishment.

How many weeks is it since some bright spark working in Downing Street suggested that in the modern world Britain didn’t really need farmers or fishermen?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

DavidL said:

Burgessian said:

Wonder if it is worth putting money into book delivery companies such as Waterstone's and Abebooks, if Amazon falls over.

I am untypical in that I couldn't give a fig about the loss of soap operas or sporting fixtures but losing access to books???

I believe there was a significant uptick in poetry sales during the world wars so possibly good news for Simon Armitage (poet laureate with a popular touch - bit like Betjeman)

Amazon fall over???? They have enough cash reserves to see out the decade.

I took that to mean were unable to cope with the demand.

Amazon have already adjusted. They aren't taking any new stock from 3rd party sellers of non-essential crap and are hiring new employees.

After the dust clears, every firm might be owned by one of Amazon or Apple. They might even be able to buy some medium size countries.