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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The virus score card as at 1353GMT

SystemSystem Posts: 12,150
edited March 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The virus score card as at 1353GMT

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Yo! First
  • eekeek Posts: 28,269
    Second
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Third like eadric
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    Eadric's going to run out of tissues with this thread.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Eadric's going to run out of tissues with this thread.

    So far short of his expectations?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    57,000 (ish) dead or recovered and just shy of 100,000 infected.

    So 40,000(ish) in play?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    FPT
    Endillion said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel sorry for all those names at Lloyd’s of London.

    They are going to have a really shit year paying out for cancellation insurance.

    This kind of event is precisely what insurers charge their premiums for. If Names don't want to run the risk of paying out in these circumstances, they shouldn't be Names.
    I would be the world's worst underwriter.
    The bar's set pretty high. I used to work with a guy who seemed almost magnetically attracted towards ships that were about to sink.
    Sounds like someone I knew, he was nicknamed the Uncle Albert of underwriting.

    He won seven medals - although this was largely due to the fact that he had an extraordinarily unfortunate time serving on seven ships that were sunk over a period of 4 years.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Almost all betting and investment decisions are proxy bets on coronavirus atm, so we might as well cut to the chase and press for spread betting markets on the daily increase.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,751
    edited March 2020
    A one-page read on communicating about the virus from a Cambridge risk boffin.
    [HMG] seem to be largely following the open and honest approach that John Krebs took when handling multiple crises in the Food Standard Agency. When faced with communicating with the public around, for example, scrapie in lamb, he recommended the following messages:
    -- our knowledge: what we do know
    -- our uncertainty: what we don’t know
    -- our plans for contingencies: what we are doing
    -- your actions: what you can do in the meantime
    -- flexibility: things will change and we shall get back to you
    https://medium.com/wintoncentre/communication-about-coronavirus-ce455fba5677
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    It's starting to get a bit scary clicking on any non-China country here: https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/.

    And that thing is starting to show a decent few hours of lag. The Germany figure is 100 too low.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    Endillion said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel sorry for all those names at Lloyd’s of London.

    They are going to have a really shit year paying out for cancellation insurance.

    This kind of event is precisely what insurers charge their premiums for. If Names don't want to run the risk of paying out in these circumstances, they shouldn't be Names.
    I would be the world's worst underwriter.
    The bar's set pretty high. I used to work with a guy who seemed almost magnetically attracted towards ships that were about to sink.
    Sounds like someone I knew, he was nicknamed the Uncle Albert of underwriting.

    He won seven medals - although this was largely due to the fact that he had an extraordinarily unfortunate time serving on seven ships that were sunk over a period of 4 years.
    Every London Market insurer seems to have at least one, somewhere.

    Almost as common is the one who's never had a single loss, ever, except for all the ones he did have which don't count.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
    The most bizarre thing about this virus is how many cases arise from travel to other 'hotspots' (where meeting a carrier is still very long odds) compared to the few that arise from transmission at home. It is almost as if somehow it zooms in on travellers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    IshmaelZ said:

    Almost all betting and investment decisions are proxy bets on coronavirus atm, so we might as well cut to the chase and press for spread betting markets on the daily increase.

    Yes. Markets are slowly sinking toward Wall Street open, and I have a choice between trimming by taking profits on a few positions before the volatility of opening time, or holding firm in the expectation that Wall Street will sink lower.

    On the basis that the Dow is already traded -700 before open, I am inclined to take the more timid, safer, first option, ready to jump back in if the Dow plunges lower.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
    The most bizarre thing about this virus is how many cases arise from travel to other 'hotspots' (where meeting a carrier is still very long odds) compared to the few that arise from transmission at home. It is almost as if somehow it zooms in on travellers.
    Airport security queues seems to be almost designed to spread transmission.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Philip_Thompson said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
    The most bizarre thing about this virus is how many cases arise from travel to other 'hotspots' (where meeting a carrier is still very long odds) compared to the few that arise from transmission at home. It is almost as if somehow it zooms in on travellers.
    Airport security queues seems to be almost designed to spread transmission.
    Yes. Those trays.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Endillion said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I feel sorry for all those names at Lloyd’s of London.

    They are going to have a really shit year paying out for cancellation insurance.

    This kind of event is precisely what insurers charge their premiums for. If Names don't want to run the risk of paying out in these circumstances, they shouldn't be Names.
    I would be the world's worst underwriter.
    The bar's set pretty high. I used to work with a guy who seemed almost magnetically attracted towards ships that were about to sink.
    As if he were one of mine.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Right, I am cutting a few positions. Instinct tells me the Dow is going to bounce up and then resume its sink from a higher level.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited March 2020
    IanB2 said:


    The most bizarre thing about this virus is how many cases arise from travel to other 'hotspots' (where meeting a carrier is still very long odds) compared to the few that arise from transmission at home. It is almost as if somehow it zooms in on travellers.

    Guessing in the hotspots it's not such long odds to catch it, because a decently high % of locals have it. You'd then get a sort of saturation effect in terms of number of possible infection chances.

    At home .... need to be really unlucky. After all, regular flu is everywhere and still relatively uncommon to catch, even when taking no precautions.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Any nominations for most underappreciated classical music?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IshmaelZ said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
    The most bizarre thing about this virus is how many cases arise from travel to other 'hotspots' (where meeting a carrier is still very long odds) compared to the few that arise from transmission at home. It is almost as if somehow it zooms in on travellers.
    Airport security queues seems to be almost designed to spread transmission.
    Yes. Those trays.
    Perhaps. I was also thinking a crowd of people stuck like sardines in long queues with prolonged exposure to each other.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    IanB2 said:

    Any nominations for most underappreciated classical music?

    Grieg lieder.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/health/what-fkwitted-opinions-about-coronavirus-are-you-sharing-online-20200305194122
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,764
    IanB2 said:

    Right, I am cutting a few positions. Instinct tells me the Dow is going to bounce up and then resume its sink from a higher level.

    Always knew you were a Tory, Ian!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Wise words

    https://twitter.com/ElieNYC/status/1235353345495310336
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    IanB2 said:

    Any nominations for most underappreciated classical music?

    Most of Poulenc
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,764
    Henrietta2 said:

    "The Department of Health and Social Care will be publishing updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice."

    Today's figures not up yet though. Yesterday's were 16659 tested, 85 cases.

    Belgium: 27 new cases, total 50.
    Norway: 13 new, total 72.
    Greece: 22 new, total 31.
    San Marino: 5 new, total 21. (What % of the population is that?)
    Finland: 5 new, total 12.
    Palestine, 1967 OTs: 4, all new.

    87 wasn't it?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    You'd think it have taken a bit longer to reach the Faroe Islands really, wouldn't you?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    Henrietta2 said:

    "The Department of Health and Social Care will be publishing updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice."

    Today's figures not up yet though. Yesterday's were 16659 tested, 85 cases.

    Belgium: 27 new cases, total 50.
    Norway: 13 new, total 72.
    Greece: 22 new, total 31.
    San Marino: 5 new, total 21. (What % of the population is that?)
    Finland: 5 new, total 12.
    Palestine, 1967 OTs: 4, all new.

    I know someone at the DHSC and they've seen the figures. They said "I don't like them, but I'll have to go along with them."
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    My bank balance hates Democrat Primary voters:

    https://twitter.com/kbsilbaugh/status/1235566176589303808
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    edited March 2020
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    IanB2 said:

    Right, I am cutting a few positions. Instinct tells me the Dow is going to bounce up and then resume its sink from a higher level.

    Always knew you were a Tory, Ian!
    Only to 26,400. I'll take a little, and wait...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Staff at a British government department have received an unfortunately worded email offering help with planning their ‘demise,’ the Daily Mirror reports.

    The message was sent to staff at the Department for Business, Energy, Innovation and Skills (BEIS).

    The Mirror reports that the email was sent by a representative of ISS, an outsourcing company, and reads that they are monitoring the situation in relation to the coronavirus.

    It goes on: “Should, as part of your preparations need us to consider something more specific to your demise, ISS are happy to do so.”

    From the Guardian live blog.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
    Americans don't seem to realise the scale of the problem there. We have had several senior people over from our US head office who have made reference to the fact that the situation is worse in France than the US. "Only X cases in our state", ignoring the fact that widespread lack of testing means the US has its head in the sand just like China and Iran had previously.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Paristonda said:

    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
    Americans don't seem to realise the scale of the problem there. We have had several senior people over from our US head office who have made reference to the fact that the situation is worse in France than the US. "Only X cases in our state", ignoring the fact that widespread lack of testing means the US has its head in the sand just like China and Iran had previously.
    +1
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644
    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
    The most bizarre thing about this virus is how many cases arise from travel to other 'hotspots' (where meeting a carrier is still very long odds) compared to the few that arise from transmission at home. It is almost as if somehow it zooms in on travellers.
    ... or aeroplanes.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    tlg86 said:

    Henrietta2 said:

    "The Department of Health and Social Care will be publishing updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice."

    Today's figures not up yet though. Yesterday's were 16659 tested, 85 cases.

    Belgium: 27 new cases, total 50.
    Norway: 13 new, total 72.
    Greece: 22 new, total 31.
    San Marino: 5 new, total 21. (What % of the population is that?)
    Finland: 5 new, total 12.
    Palestine, 1967 OTs: 4, all new.

    I know someone at the DHSC and they've seen the figures. They said "I don't like them, but I'll have to go along with them."
    Is that just a meme or a meme but also true?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Does anyone think Amazon is going to suspend their silly practice of requiring customer signatures for certain items according to unpublished criteria, even when you have a enclosed delivery point and have specifically indicated that as your preference?

    It seems to defeat the point of stockpiling for a pandemic apocalypse when you need to make close contact with the people delivering your supplies...
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    IanB2 said:

    Any nominations for most underappreciated classical music?

    Paderewski's Piano Concerto. And he was a politician.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    edited March 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    Henrietta2 said:

    "The Department of Health and Social Care will be publishing updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice."

    Today's figures not up yet though. Yesterday's were 16659 tested, 85 cases.

    Belgium: 27 new cases, total 50.
    Norway: 13 new, total 72.
    Greece: 22 new, total 31.
    San Marino: 5 new, total 21. (What % of the population is that?)
    Finland: 5 new, total 12.
    Palestine, 1967 OTs: 4, all new.

    I know someone at the DHSC and they've seen the figures. They said "I don't like them, but I'll have to go along with them."
    Is that just a meme or a meme but also true?
    Sadly (in that I don't know) not true. As suggested, this is actually very sensitive market information.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Benpointer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
    The most bizarre thing about this virus is how many cases arise from travel to other 'hotspots' (where meeting a carrier is still very long odds) compared to the few that arise from transmission at home. It is almost as if somehow it zooms in on travellers.
    ... or aeroplanes.
    Airports. On an actual plane you are quite isolated, whereas think of all the touchscreens and lift buttons and trays and things in the airport.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677
    Benpointer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
    The most bizarre thing about this virus is how many cases arise from travel to other 'hotspots' (where meeting a carrier is still very long odds) compared to the few that arise from transmission at home. It is almost as if somehow it zooms in on travellers.
    ... or aeroplanes.
    Not actually as common a place to get infected as many people think, e.g. https://www.who.int/ith/mode_of_travel/tcd_aircraft/en/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    humbugger said:

    IanB2 said:

    Any nominations for most underappreciated classical music?

    Paderewski's Piano Concerto. And he was a politician.
    I'm still on the Grieg at the moment. I didn't care for the high pitched wailing, but the piano transcriptions are very good.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Staff at a British government department have received an unfortunately worded email offering help with planning their ‘demise,’ the Daily Mirror reports.

    The message was sent to staff at the Department for Business, Energy, Innovation and Skills (BEIS).

    The Mirror reports that the email was sent by a representative of ISS, an outsourcing company, and reads that they are monitoring the situation in relation to the coronavirus.

    It goes on: “Should, as part of your preparations need us to consider something more specific to your demise, ISS are happy to do so.”

    From the Guardian live blog.

    How courteous. Though someone should let them know we are covered as eadric is busy preparing all of our demise.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,401
    Benpointer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
    The most bizarre thing about this virus is how many cases arise from travel to other 'hotspots' (where meeting a carrier is still very long odds) compared to the few that arise from transmission at home. It is almost as if somehow it zooms in on travellers.
    ... or aeroplanes.
    Journalists as carriers?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited March 2020
    So, after my usual two days this week of WFH, I ventured into the Big Apple this morning. Observations: commuter rail and subway noticeably quieter than usual, but not outside normal bounds - about what you'd expect say in 4th of July week when a lot of folks take vacation to make use of the holiday.

    Saw precisely two people wearing face masks on my commute in, a lot less than a week or two ago. Either the line that they're not very effective has sunk in, or those more disposed to wear them are staying home. The building had workers out wiping down all the elevator control panels after use.

    That all said, my work has announced that anyone who wants to WFH f/t can for the duration. As I'm in three extra-risk groups: over 50, diabetic and asthmatic, my wife has asked me to take up the policy, so I'll be letting my boss know today that that's what I'm going to do.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    IanB2 said:

    Any nominations for most underappreciated classical music?

    Copland - Clarinet concerto
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 370
    edited March 2020
    The time series data of daily cases and deaths by country are available from the Github repository of the database above.

    I have plotted the log of the daily new cases for Italy, Germany and France against the date and all these plots show a slow downward curvature. This suggests that the growth rate in recorded case numbers has been slowly reducing in these three countries. By contrast in the UK the plot is linear and with a slightly increasing upward slope in recent days, showing a shortening doubling time in the UK.

    As far as the data for deaths is concerned, there is not currently enough data from these countries except Italy. The plot for Italy is linear showing a steady daily growth rate in the log of the number of deaths. Plotting the data for Iran, a slowly reducing slope was obtained with a reduction of the growth rate in deaths.

    This all suggests (except for the UK data) that there may be a slowing of the growth rate of this epidemic, assuming that the data can be relied upon. Of course this assumption cannot be made, but I think that across the world, including China and South Korea the epidemic may be slowing down a bit in several countries. Hopefully this will include the UK as well soon.

    It should be noted that if a plot is flat this means that the number of daily new cases/deaths is constant meaning that there is an steady arithmetic increase. We need to eventually see the plots come down to zero to end the epidemic.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,401
    Henrietta2 said:

    "The Department of Health and Social Care will be publishing updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice."

    Today's figures not up yet though. Yesterday's were 16659 tested, 85 cases.

    Belgium: 27 new cases, total 50.
    Norway: 13 new, total 72.
    Greece: 22 new, total 31.
    San Marino: 5 new, total 21. (What % of the population is that?)
    Finland: 5 new, total 12.
    Palestine, 1967 OTs: 4, all new.


    San Marino population 33,400 in 2017, according to Wikipedia. Does get a lot of visitors though.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    My recollection is that to defeat a pandemic you need to head for Madagascar.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,275
    edited March 2020
    Paristonda said:

    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
    Americans don't seem to realise the scale of the problem there. We have had several senior people over from our US head office who have made reference to the fact that the situation is worse in France than the US. "Only X cases in our state", ignoring the fact that widespread lack of testing means the US has its head in the sand just like China and Iran had previously.
    They're not even identifying deaths as being due to the virus in a timely manner. I think there was a death that was identified a week after the event as being due to the virus and they only checked because it was in the same retirement home as another coronavirus case.

    I think we'll only know if it gets really bad in the US once lots of cases start crossing the Atlantic.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,777
    LostPassword said:

    Paristonda said:

    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
    Americans don't seem to realise the scale of the problem there. We have had several senior people over from our US head office who have made reference to the fact that the situation is worse in France than the US. "Only X cases in our state", ignoring the fact that widespread lack of testing means the US has its head in the sand just like China and Iran had previously.
    They're not even identifying deaths as being due to the virus in a timely manner. I think there was a death that was identified a week after the event as being due to the virus and they only checked because it was in the same retirement home as another coronavirus case.

    I think we'll only know if it gets really bad in the US once lots of cases start crossing the Atlantic.
    I suspect that this has already happened and is part of the reason for the increase in UK cases that aren't otherwise explainable.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Lennon said:

    LostPassword said:

    Paristonda said:

    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
    Americans don't seem to realise the scale of the problem there. We have had several senior people over from our US head office who have made reference to the fact that the situation is worse in France than the US. "Only X cases in our state", ignoring the fact that widespread lack of testing means the US has its head in the sand just like China and Iran had previously.
    They're not even identifying deaths as being due to the virus in a timely manner. I think there was a death that was identified a week after the event as being due to the virus and they only checked because it was in the same retirement home as another coronavirus case.

    I think we'll only know if it gets really bad in the US once lots of cases start crossing the Atlantic.
    I suspect that this has already happened and is part of the reason for the increase in UK cases that aren't otherwise explainable.
    As yet there seems very little awareness in the US as to how this crisis is exposing their healthcare system (and a chunk of their government) as unfit for purpose.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,777
    AlastairMeeks said:

    My recollection is that to defeat a pandemic you need to head for Madagascar.

    Tristan da Cunha would be another good option.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,064
    fox327 said:

    The time series data of daily cases and deaths by country are available from the Github repository of the database above.

    I have plotted the log of the daily new cases for Italy, Germany and France against the date and all these plots show a slow downward curvature. This suggests that the growth rate in recorded case numbers has been slowly reducing in these three countries. By contrast in the UK the plot is linear and with a slightly increasing upward slope in recent days, showing a shortening doubling time in the UK.

    For those not so adept at picking up mathematically correct but easily misunderstood explanations:
    a slow downward curvature on a log scale means that the rate is still increasing more quickly than linear but not as quickly as proper exponential growth.

    I see no reason to be complacent about the growth in cases in Germany in the last 8 days including in the last 2 days.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    Palestine, 1967 OTs: 4, all new.

    No chance it is just 4 cases there now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    edited March 2020
    Most suspect countries for cases 'revealed' vs actual numbers.

    USA; Egpyt; Palestinian territories.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,142
    Lennon said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    My recollection is that to defeat a pandemic you need to head for Madagascar.

    Tristan da Cunha would be another good option.
    North Sentinel Island?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    IanB2 said:

    Lennon said:

    LostPassword said:

    Paristonda said:

    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
    Americans don't seem to realise the scale of the problem there. We have had several senior people over from our US head office who have made reference to the fact that the situation is worse in France than the US. "Only X cases in our state", ignoring the fact that widespread lack of testing means the US has its head in the sand just like China and Iran had previously.
    They're not even identifying deaths as being due to the virus in a timely manner. I think there was a death that was identified a week after the event as being due to the virus and they only checked because it was in the same retirement home as another coronavirus case.

    I think we'll only know if it gets really bad in the US once lots of cases start crossing the Atlantic.
    I suspect that this has already happened and is part of the reason for the increase in UK cases that aren't otherwise explainable.
    As yet there seems very little awareness in the US as to how this crisis is exposing their healthcare system (and a chunk of their government) as unfit for purpose.
    Indeed
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Staff at a British government department have received an unfortunately worded email offering help with planning their ‘demise,’ the Daily Mirror reports.

    The message was sent to staff at the Department for Business, Energy, Innovation and Skills (BEIS).

    The Mirror reports that the email was sent by a representative of ISS, an outsourcing company, and reads that they are monitoring the situation in relation to the coronavirus.

    It goes on: “Should, as part of your preparations need us to consider something more specific to your demise, ISS are happy to do so.”

    From the Guardian live blog.

    How courteous. Though someone should let them know we are covered as eadric is busy preparing all of our demise.
    Now now. Don't shoot the messenger.

    Prophets are always without honour in their home town.

    Casino Royale is just going to LOVE this post.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Pulpstar said:

    Palestine, 1967 OTs: 4, all new.

    No chance it is just 4 cases there now.

    Not exactly hermit country, is it?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,930
    A decade and a half ago...

    https://twitter.com/DonnaYoungDC/status/1235575065175093248
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1235584826448769026
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    edited March 2020
    humbugger said:

    IanB2 said:

    Any nominations for most underappreciated classical music?

    Paderewski's Piano Concerto. And he was a politician.
    Pleasant, and I'll certainly hunt it out again. But nothing particular to grab me on first listen; probably one of those pieces where you need to know what's coming to get the most out of it. The orchestra was mostly in the background.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,275
    IanB2 said:

    Lennon said:

    LostPassword said:

    Paristonda said:

    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
    Americans don't seem to realise the scale of the problem there. We have had several senior people over from our US head office who have made reference to the fact that the situation is worse in France than the US. "Only X cases in our state", ignoring the fact that widespread lack of testing means the US has its head in the sand just like China and Iran had previously.
    They're not even identifying deaths as being due to the virus in a timely manner. I think there was a death that was identified a week after the event as being due to the virus and they only checked because it was in the same retirement home as another coronavirus case.

    I think we'll only know if it gets really bad in the US once lots of cases start crossing the Atlantic.
    I suspect that this has already happened and is part of the reason for the increase in UK cases that aren't otherwise explainable.
    As yet there seems very little awareness in the US as to how this crisis is exposing their healthcare system (and a chunk of their government) as unfit for purpose.
    Bearing in mind how partisan the response has been to date I don't think they ever will. Most of the dead will be old whose deaths can be recorded for one of many other reasons. Many very sick people will never be recorded as having the virus because they won't be tested, let alone people with more mild symptoms. Meanwhile the White House will act to frustrate anyone from finding out the true scale of the disease.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,930
    Lennon said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    My recollection is that to defeat a pandemic you need to head for Madagascar.

    Tristan da Cunha would be another good option.
    But what if you turn up there and find you’re infected ?
    Who’s going to look after you should you require intensive care ?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited March 2020
    It's largely guess work.

    We have no real idea how the number of cases in any country is really down to the ability/willingness to test for the virus.

    We have no idea whether countries are deliberately underplaying the deaths and infections for domestic, economic and international consumption.. Who really knows what's going on in China, North Korea, Iran or even the USA.

    At the moment I think we all recognise that it is serious but beyond that we can all panic as much or as little as we like according to preference.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited March 2020
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1235584826448769026

    During the GE, I used to joke about being like Tweak from South Park waiting for all the polling news....this DHSC daily update is like that, but for real. You have to think there is a reason for the delayed announcement after 3 weeks of on the dot reporting of the numbers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,569
    Nigelb said:

    Lennon said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    My recollection is that to defeat a pandemic you need to head for Madagascar.

    Tristan da Cunha would be another good option.
    But what if you turn up there and find you’re infected ?
    Who’s going to look after you should you require intensive care ?
    Perhaps the worst affected place in the Spanish Flu was Western Samoa, the least affected was American Samoa. The difference was one ship SS Talune, and much better quarantine on the American Islands.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,493
    Dadge said:

    IanB2 said:

    Any nominations for most underappreciated classical music?

    Copland - Clarinet concerto
    Symphonies of Edmund Rubbra. Bliss's Clarinet Quintet.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1235584826448769026

    During the GE, I used to joke about being like Tweak from South Park waiting for all the polling news....this DHSC daily update is like that, but for real. You have to think there is a reason for the delayed announcement after 3 weeks of on the dot reporting of the numbers.
    I reckon first death to be announced.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1235584826448769026

    During the GE, I used to joke about being like Tweak from South Park waiting for all the polling news....this DHSC daily update is like that, but for real. You have to think there is a reason for the delayed announcement after 3 weeks of on the dot reporting of the numbers.
    You should see the replies to that tweet.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1235584826448769026

    During the GE, I used to joke about being like Tweak from South Park waiting for all the polling news....this DHSC daily update is like that, but for real. You have to think there is a reason for the delayed announcement after 3 weeks of on the dot reporting of the numbers.
    You should see the replies to that tweet.
    I did, I accidentally thought I had clicked on Alex Jones twitter feed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1235575649202565120?s=21
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    edited March 2020
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1235584826448769026

    During the GE, I used to joke about being like Tweak from South Park waiting for all the polling news....this DHSC daily update is like that, but for real. You have to think there is a reason for the delayed announcement after 3 weeks of on the dot reporting of the numbers.
    You should see the replies to that tweet.
    I did, I accidentally thought I had clicked on Alex Jones twitter feed.
    I know.

    Saw one tweet saying it was a disease created to stop Brexit.

    Newsflash: We’ve left the EU.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1235584826448769026

    During the GE, I used to joke about being like Tweak from South Park waiting for all the polling news....this DHSC daily update is like that, but for real. You have to think there is a reason for the delayed announcement after 3 weeks of on the dot reporting of the numbers.
    I reckon first death to be announced.
    That’s what I thought. Or a really large jump.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,275
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1235575649202565120?s=21

    I'm shocked that journalists at the Sun and Times are prepared to put their colleagues at risk in a misguided attempt to better protect themselves individually. Who could have guessed?

    When it happens at The Guardian then we'll know panic has completely gripped the nation.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1235575649202565120?s=21

    Even worse when it turns out they've been flogging them on Ebay, rather than for personal use.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I've had one bet on this Dem nom race...




    So is there any value now? Has Biden gone too short?



  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Dadge said:

    IanB2 said:

    Any nominations for most underappreciated classical music?

    Copland - Clarinet concerto
    Great recommendation! Especially the lively second half. A new piece to me. I'm thinking like an American Malcolm Arnold? With added jazz. And intricate timing.

    The Frost performance is on YouTube. But I've put the Williamson recording, which seems to be regarded, in my Amazon basket. TVM

    Meanwhile the Dow doesn't appear to want to sink just yet. Time for a frustrated dog to get his walk.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1235584826448769026

    During the GE, I used to joke about being like Tweak from South Park waiting for all the polling news....this DHSC daily update is like that, but for real. You have to think there is a reason for the delayed announcement after 3 weeks of on the dot reporting of the numbers.
    I reckon first death to be announced.
    That’s what I thought. Or a really large jump.
    Without trying to start wild speculation, I would think it most realistically is a large jump and that it is taking extra time to sort through and double check the details, as they now said they will continue to put out locations etc. Especially given Chief Medical Office said to parliament this morning we are now entering Phase 2.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1235575649202565120?s=21

    Even worse when it turns out they've been flogging them on Ebay, rather than for personal use.
    All those packages heading for Camden Town...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,930
    oxfordsimon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Any nominations for most underappreciated classical music?

    Most of Poulenc
    The organ concerto is mad, and great.
    Is it under appreciated ? How are we defining that ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,569
    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1235575649202565120?s=21

    Even worse when it turns out they've been flogging them on Ebay, rather than for personal use.
    Ingredients to make your own are still available on Amazon, but selling fast.

    The WHO approved formula is easy, anyone who can cook can do it. Not near a naked flame though!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1235099240420061184?s=19
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    LostPassword said:

    IanB2 said:

    Lennon said:

    LostPassword said:

    Paristonda said:

    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
    Americans don't seem to realise the scale of the problem there. We have had several senior people over from our US head office who have made reference to the fact that the situation is worse in France than the US. "Only X cases in our state", ignoring the fact that widespread lack of testing means the US has its head in the sand just like China and Iran had previously.
    They're not even identifying deaths as being due to the virus in a timely manner. I think there was a death that was identified a week after the event as being due to the virus and they only checked because it was in the same retirement home as another coronavirus case.

    I think we'll only know if it gets really bad in the US once lots of cases start crossing the Atlantic.
    I suspect that this has already happened and is part of the reason for the increase in UK cases that aren't otherwise explainable.
    As yet there seems very little awareness in the US as to how this crisis is exposing their healthcare system (and a chunk of their government) as unfit for purpose.
    Bearing in mind how partisan the response has been to date I don't think they ever will. Most of the dead will be old whose deaths can be recorded for one of many other reasons. Many very sick people will never be recorded as having the virus because they won't be tested, let alone people with more mild symptoms. Meanwhile the White House will act to frustrate anyone from finding out the true scale of the disease.
    But things in America don't tend to play out like that? As a backstop someone'll be making a film about it in a decade or two's time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    Psychic readings are held by Skype.....

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8078039/How-coronavirus-having-impact-daily-British-life.html
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    IanB2 said:

    Any nominations for most underappreciated classical music?

    Tchaikovsky. Piano Concerto No. 2

    I once had an excellent recording of it on CD
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,235
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1235584826448769026

    During the GE, I used to joke about being like Tweak from South Park waiting for all the polling news....this DHSC daily update is like that, but for real. You have to think there is a reason for the delayed announcement after 3 weeks of on the dot reporting of the numbers.
    I reckon first death to be announced.
    That’s what I thought. Or a really large jump.
    Without trying to start wild speculation, I would think it most realistically is a large jump and that it is taking extra time to sort through and double check the details, as they now said they will continue to put out locations etc. Especially given Chief Medical Office said to parliament this morning we are now entering Phase 2.
    I would guess it will start to show clusters of localised transmission
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    My father's own speculation is that there's been a material increase of cases after the normal 9am cut off point.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Nigelb said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Any nominations for most underappreciated classical music?

    Most of Poulenc
    The organ concerto is mad, and great.
    Is it under appreciated ? How are we defining that ?
    Very subjectively!

    I was listening to Sibelius 3 when I thought of it; one of the most adorable pieces of music, with the right recording, yet everyone thinks of the big tunes in 2 or 5. Personally I'd put Prokofiev 7, Shostakovich 11 (for being more than it appears) and Tubin 9 into the same category. Plus much of Malcolm Arnold, whose music suffers for his having been suspected of dodgy proclivities in advance of many others.
  • northernpowerhouse2northernpowerhouse2 Posts: 190
    Foxy said:

    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1235575649202565120?s=21

    Even worse when it turns out they've been flogging them on Ebay, rather than for personal use.
    Ingredients to make your own are still available on Amazon, but selling fast.

    The WHO approved formula is easy, anyone who can cook can do it. Not near a naked flame though!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1235099240420061184?s=19
    99% alcohol to a 1/3 Aloe vera ?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    WARREN GONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    Pulpstar said:

    WARREN GONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

    to spend more time with her tribe?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pulpstar said:

    WARREN GONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

    to spend more time with her tribe?
    1/64th of her time?
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,013
    Birmingham has jumped the gun and announced their first case.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    AlastairMeeks said:

    My recollection is that to defeat a pandemic you need to head for Madagascar.

    I've been waiting ages for someone to make that comment so I didn't have to.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Benpointer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Alistair said:

    Egypt sounds like an place that is going to go from zero to lots any moment now as they admit to having cases.

    Greece has just announced 21 cases returning from Israel. Israel apparently only have 15 cases total, despite coronavirus spilling into the West Bank. They're another one to add to the shame list alongside the US.
    The most bizarre thing about this virus is how many cases arise from travel to other 'hotspots' (where meeting a carrier is still very long odds) compared to the few that arise from transmission at home. It is almost as if somehow it zooms in on travellers.
    ... or aeroplanes.
    I’ve been wondering if the England cricket team ‘flu’ that took out about 10 players at the start of the Saffer series was in fact Coronavirus caught on the flight from London to Joburg.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,280
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1235584826448769026

    During the GE, I used to joke about being like Tweak from South Park waiting for all the polling news....this DHSC daily update is like that, but for real. You have to think there is a reason for the delayed announcement after 3 weeks of on the dot reporting of the numbers.
    I reckon first death to be announced.
    That’s what I thought. Or a really large jump.
    Without trying to start wild speculation, I would think it most realistically is a large jump and that it is taking extra time to sort through and double check the details, as they now said they will continue to put out locations etc. Especially given Chief Medical Office said to parliament this morning we are now entering Phase 2.
    The Italian attribution by province daily update includes a number for each region that are 'not yet attributed to province'.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,930
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Any nominations for most underappreciated classical music?

    Most of Poulenc
    The organ concerto is mad, and great.
    Is it under appreciated ? How are we defining that ?
    Very subjectively!

    I was listening to Sibelius 3 when I thought of it; one of the most adorable pieces of music, with the right recording, yet everyone thinks of the big tunes in 2 or 5. Personally I'd put Prokofiev 7, Shostakovich 11 (for being more than it appears) and Tubin 9 into the same category. Plus much of Malcolm Arnold, whose music suffers for his having been suspected of dodgy proclivities in advance of many others.
    Along those lines, all of Bach’s solo violin apart from the Chaconne ?
    The whole series is just delightful.

    If that’s too mainstream, then Biber. The baroque violinist that is... :smile:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    https://twitter.com/buzzfeednews/status/1235593559358590977?s=21
This discussion has been closed.