CNN reporting from various sources that Bloomberg will pull out today and is anxious not to facilitate a Sanders win. Looks like another endorsement for Sleepy Joe. No doubt Sanders will fight on as he did 4 years ago but this looks all over to me.
Unless I'm reading it wrong Sanders seems to have gone backwards not forwards in practically each state since 4 years ago.
CNN reporting from various sources that Bloomberg will pull out today and is anxious not to facilitate a Sanders win. Looks like another endorsement for Sleepy Joe. No doubt Sanders will fight on as he did 4 years ago but this looks all over to me.
Unless I'm reading it wrong Sanders seems to have gone backwards not forwards in practically each state since 4 years ago.
Oh yes he is doing much worse than 4 years ago and has done consistently. This was hidden by the split field but is now exposed as the moderates consolidate in a manner that Hillary Clinton couldn’t quite manage.
Am very lucky to be up here after some major reds on Sanders, Harris and Biden at various points. Luckily a big bet and then cash out on Warren saved me, but also squandered some lucky longshots (Mayor Pete at >500/1) and overinvested in others (Castro, Hickenlooper).
In general I'm not sure anyone on this forum has called this one all that well. There was a lot of talk about Biden dropping out/being a no-hoper once people saw him.
CNN reporting from various sources that Bloomberg will pull out today and is anxious not to facilitate a Sanders win. Looks like another endorsement for Sleepy Joe. No doubt Sanders will fight on as he did 4 years ago but this looks all over to me.
Unless I'm reading it wrong Sanders seems to have gone backwards not forwards in practically each state since 4 years ago.
It's a measure of just how awful a candidate Hillary was, that a virtually-out-to-pasture Biden is destroying her by comparison, seemingly without ever having really gotten going.
His underperformance in Iowa and NH seems a long time ago.now. Due to other candidates outspending him, while Biden was focused on Super Tuesday, or a sign there isn't much enthusiasm for him beyond his perceived ability to beat Trump?
Edit: "destroying" may be too strong, but I recall Sanders being closer than this last time out.
CNN reporting from various sources that Bloomberg will pull out today and is anxious not to facilitate a Sanders win. Looks like another endorsement for Sleepy Joe. No doubt Sanders will fight on as he did 4 years ago but this looks all over to me.
Unless I'm reading it wrong Sanders seems to have gone backwards not forwards in practically each state since 4 years ago.
It's like Corbyn. Voters have had four years to get to know him.
It’s difficult to see how Sanders comes back from this; agreed. And with covid19 as the backdrop, that probably makes Biden favourite in the Presidential election.
This, of course, makes Biden’s choice of running mate unusually important. At best, he will be no more than a 1 term president; are there any markets up on whether the 25th Amendment is exercised in the next 4 years?
Am very lucky to be up here after some major reds on Sanders, Harris and Biden at various points. Luckily a big bet and then cash out on Warren saved me, but also squandered some lucky longshots (Mayor Pete at >500/1) and overinvested in others (Castro, Hickenlooper).
In general I'm not sure anyone on this forum has called this one all that well. There was a lot of talk about Biden dropping out/being a no-hoper once people saw him.
Exactly. After Nevada many thought it was sown up for Sanders, and now 10 days later it's totally the otherway round.
I think its all over bar the shouting after tonight, it would take a miracle to revive Sanders momentum after this and he has burnt his bridges through the party and nobody is going to want to help him get that miracle.
I just hope Biden isn't so awful that he loses to Trump. At least unlike Hillary I don't think he'll fail to campaign in the midwest.
Am very lucky to be up here after some major reds on Sanders, Harris and Biden at various points. Luckily a big bet and then cash out on Warren saved me, but also squandered some lucky longshots (Mayor Pete at >500/1) and overinvested in others (Castro, Hickenlooper).
In general I'm not sure anyone on this forum has called this one all that well. There was a lot of talk about Biden dropping out/being a no-hoper once people saw him.
Exactly. After Nevada many thought it was sown up for Sanders, and now 10 days later it's totally the otherway round.
Looking at the chart on previous thread, Biden was at 10/1 last week.
Biden versus Trump is even more of a bummer than Clinton versus Trump.
I would have not voted when offered the choice of Clinton or Trump.
Two drooling dementia patients slugging it out is not going to entice me to vote either.
If the choice is a drooling dementia patient who is a bit sleepy, versus a drooling dementia patient who is totally malevolent, then its no contest whom I want to win.
I genuinely think Biden is a terrible candidate all said and done.
I think he's 50/50 against Trump. Unclear whether he will generate the enthusiasm to get Dems to the polls.
Klobuchar would have crushed Trump. Oh well, we are where we are. At least it's not Bloomberg.
Trump will generate the enthusiasm to get Dems to the polls.
Hope you're right but he didn't last time. And I think Bernie supporters are not going to be very impressed with Biden as nominee after their optimism their man could win. Are they going to be motivated by saving Obamacare, when they want to replace it with Medicare for All anyway?
I think its all over bar the shouting after tonight, it would take a miracle to revive Sanders momentum after this and he has burnt his bridges through the party and nobody is going to want to help him get that miracle.
I just hope Biden isn't so awful that he loses to Trump. At least unlike Hillary I don't think he'll fail to campaign in the midwest.
Yes, I think the hope has to be that Hilary was such a bad candidate with such a bad strategy with so much baggage, that a relatively similar candidate (who is weaker on the competence argument) can still win.
I think its all over bar the shouting after tonight, it would take a miracle to revive Sanders momentum after this and he has burnt his bridges through the party and nobody is going to want to help him get that miracle.
I just hope Biden isn't so awful that he loses to Trump. At least unlike Hillary I don't think he'll fail to campaign in the midwest.
I agree. Sanders' only hope now is the narrative changing by Warren pulling out and endorsing him, but I don't think she will - she stayed neutral last time between Clinton and Sanders.
I do worry about Biden's mental health - apparently he briefly mixed up who his sister was last night?
Mr. rkrkrk, not sure I agree. Lots of people dislike Trump but moderates might not want a someone as left wing as Sanders. In that regard, and I fully admit to being amongst the least knowledgeable about US politics here, Biden scares the horses far less.
Biden versus Trump is even more of a bummer than Clinton versus Trump.
I would have not voted when offered the choice of Clinton or Trump.
Two drooling dementia patients slugging it out is not going to entice me to vote either.
If the choice is a drooling dementia patient who is a bit sleepy, versus a drooling dementia patient who is totally malevolent, then its no contest whom I want to win.
It certainly puts the Johnson/Corbyn choice in the 2019 GE into perspective. UK not looking too shabby now, guys.
Am very lucky to be up here after some major reds on Sanders, Harris and Biden at various points. Luckily a big bet and then cash out on Warren saved me, but also squandered some lucky longshots (Mayor Pete at >500/1) and overinvested in others (Castro, Hickenlooper).
In general I'm not sure anyone on this forum has called this one all that well. There was a lot of talk about Biden dropping out/being a no-hoper once people saw him.
I think that is right and perhaps we were too distracted by Cheltenham (me) and Covid-19 (everyone else) because we did have all the components. There was a pb consensus that Sanders led only because the moderate vote was split, and that Mayor Pete and Amy dropping out would mean its coalescence around Biden. It is particularly painful for me as I'd posted several times over the month that we knew Sanders' ceiling from last time when Hillary had tolerated rather than opposed him after she'd sewn up (some would say stitched up) the nomination.
But we did not collectively make the obvious next step that this meant Biden was likely to win states where he'd hitherto not been competitive, where he'd been third in the betting. That was the plausible outsider: not Buttigieg for the nomination but Biden at double figures in Maine, Massachusetts and doubtless other states where I am too lazy to click the Betfair graphs.
I still say this Ukraine stuff was a double bluff by Trump. Without it I'm sure Biden would have dropped from the race - with it he had to stay in otherwise dropping from the race would have looked like admitting guilt of something.
Hard to see how this isn’t just a carbon copy of 2016 to be honest.
Unless there’s a recession, suspect Trump stays
The two possible differences I can see are that Biden may get a higher African American turnout than Clinton did and may not actively repel rust belt voters as much as she did. Against that his mental health is at least questionable. It looks good for Trump, unless the coronavirus situation continues to dominate news agendas.
Am very lucky to be up here after some major reds on Sanders, Harris and Biden at various points. Luckily a big bet and then cash out on Warren saved me, but also squandered some lucky longshots (Mayor Pete at >500/1) and overinvested in others (Castro, Hickenlooper).
In general I'm not sure anyone on this forum has called this one all that well. There was a lot of talk about Biden dropping out/being a no-hoper once people saw him.
Exactly. After Nevada many thought it was sown up for Sanders, and now 10 days later it's totally the otherway round.
It has been a remarkable turnaround but Sanders was never as strong as he was 4 years ago. Biden has shown, however, why candidates stick in there even when it looks pretty hopeless. You just never know. I have a somewhat vague memory of insisting Biden should be standing down and supporting one of the younger moderates only a couple of weeks ago. Still think it probably would have been better actually.
I think its all over bar the shouting after tonight, it would take a miracle to revive Sanders momentum after this and he has burnt his bridges through the party and nobody is going to want to help him get that miracle.
I just hope Biden isn't so awful that he loses to Trump. At least unlike Hillary I don't think he'll fail to campaign in the midwest.
I agree. Sanders' only hope now is the narrative changing by Warren pulling out and endorsing him, but I don't think she will - she stayed neutral last time between Clinton and Sanders.
I do worry about Biden's mental health - apparently he briefly mixed up who his sister was last night?
This will not be like opponents saying Reagan or GW Bush are in decline; there will be too many videos of Biden's brainfades helpfully packaged by the Trump team.
I still say this Ukraine stuff was a double bluff by Trump. Without it I'm sure Biden would have dropped from the race - with it he had to stay in otherwise dropping from the race would have looked like admitting guilt of something.
It did seem a remarkable thing for the Democrats to use to go after Trump, knowing full well that there was zero chance of the Senate convicting him in an election year, while one of their own was involved in the story.
Trump’s now going to rile up the Sanders supports to stay at home, by saying the Dems are stitching up the contest, then he’ll accuse Biden of being corrupt over his Ukraine dealings.
I have a somewhat vague memory of insisting Biden should be standing down and supporting one of the younger moderates only a couple of weeks ago. Still think it probably would have been better actually.
Klobuchar was always a fringe candidate, Buttigieg had almost zero support amongst black voters. Who else was there ? Steyer ? Too unknown.
I think its all over bar the shouting after tonight, it would take a miracle to revive Sanders momentum after this and he has burnt his bridges through the party and nobody is going to want to help him get that miracle.
I just hope Biden isn't so awful that he loses to Trump. At least unlike Hillary I don't think he'll fail to campaign in the midwest.
I agree. Sanders' only hope now is the narrative changing by Warren pulling out and endorsing him, but I don't think she will - she stayed neutral last time between Clinton and Sanders.
I do worry about Biden's mental health - apparently he briefly mixed up who his sister was last night?
Warren is very ambitious and would love to be VP then president after one term. Would she endorse Biden to get that slot? If Bernie is seen to have no chance of the nomination would it help placate the progressives?
CNN reporting from various sources that Bloomberg will pull out today and is anxious not to facilitate a Sanders win. Looks like another endorsement for Sleepy Joe. No doubt Sanders will fight on as he did 4 years ago but this looks all over to me.
Unless I'm reading it wrong Sanders seems to have gone backwards not forwards in practically each state since 4 years ago.
In general I'm not sure anyone on this forum has called this one all that well. There was a lot of talk about Biden dropping out/being a no-hoper once people saw him.
Whilst I didn't think Biden would drop out pre Iowa (that was rcs's bag) I was actively pointing out that his polling was far worse in early states than his national figures. Back in August September there was a direct negative correlation between a respondents engagement with the Primary process and how likely they were to say Biden.
The Big Liz blowing it in November will have her and my bank balance cursing themselves.
I still say this Ukraine stuff was a double bluff by Trump. Without it I'm sure Biden would have dropped from the race - with it he had to stay in otherwise dropping from the race would have looked like admitting guilt of something.
It did seem a remarkable thing for the Democrats to use to go after Trump, knowing full well that there was zero chance of the Senate convicting him in an election year, while one of their own was involved in the story.
Trump’s now going to rile up the Sanders supports to stay at home, by saying the Dems are stitching up the contest, then he’ll accuse Biden of being corrupt over his Ukraine dealings.
The Dem tactics in 2016 were poor, and the impeachment in an election year worse. Is no-one thinking things through?
Am very lucky to be up here after some major reds on Sanders, Harris and Biden at various points. Luckily a big bet and then cash out on Warren saved me, but also squandered some lucky longshots (Mayor Pete at >500/1) and overinvested in others (Castro, Hickenlooper).
In general I'm not sure anyone on this forum has called this one all that well. There was a lot of talk about Biden dropping out/being a no-hoper once people saw him.
I think that is right and perhaps we were too distracted by Cheltenham (me) and Covid-19 (everyone else) because we did have all the components. There was a pb consensus that Sanders led only because the moderate vote was split, and that Mayor Pete and Amy dropping out would mean its coalescence around Biden. It is particularly painful for me as I'd posted several times over the month that we knew Sanders' ceiling from last time when Hillary had tolerated rather than opposed him after she'd sewn up (some would say stitched up) the nomination.
But we did not collectively make the obvious next step that this meant Biden was likely to win states where he'd hitherto not been competitive, where he'd been third in the betting. That was the plausible outsider: not Buttigieg for the nomination but Biden at double figures in Maine, Massachusetts and doubtless other states where I am too lazy to click the Betfair graphs.
*cough*
I suggested Biden @ 16/1 to win Massachusetts yesterday. Didn't back it myself as I don't really bet, wish I had.
Mr. Animal, must disagree. The PM isn't fit for the job and his rival at the election was a far left fool. Just because the US candidates look ropey doesn't mean ours were other than very poor indeed.
Funny thing is my Cashout value on the market is basically exactly where it was 10 days ago despite a frenetic series of trades. My great SC call followed by a terrible. Super Tuesday gamble.
Hard to see how this isn’t just a carbon copy of 2016 to be honest.
Unless there’s a recession, suspect Trump stays
The two possible differences I can see are that Biden may get a higher African American turnout than Clinton did and may not actively repel rust belt voters as much as she did. Against that his mental health is at least questionable. It looks good for Trump, unless the coronavirus situation continues to dominate news agendas.
Hopefully there are also a few hundred thousand left leaning voters in the swing states, who didn't want to support Clinton and ended up letting trump in, and have had 4 years to ruminate over how stupid a decision that was.
Biden versus Trump is even more of a bummer than Clinton versus Trump.
I would have not voted when offered the choice of Clinton or Trump.
Two drooling dementia patients slugging it out is not going to entice me to vote either.
If the choice is a drooling dementia patient who is a bit sleepy, versus a drooling dementia patient who is totally malevolent, then its no contest whom I want to win.
The question is: how many people are there who need to be given positive reasons to vote for a candidate?
I sat out Corbyn versus Johnson versus Swinson in GE 2019.
I don't have a vote in Trump v Biden, but if I did, I certainly would not vote (or possibly I might choose a third party candidate).
Am very lucky to be up here after some major reds on Sanders, Harris and Biden at various points. Luckily a big bet and then cash out on Warren saved me, but also squandered some lucky longshots (Mayor Pete at >500/1) and overinvested in others (Castro, Hickenlooper).
In general I'm not sure anyone on this forum has called this one all that well. There was a lot of talk about Biden dropping out/being a no-hoper once people saw him.
I think that is right and perhaps we were too distracted by Cheltenham (me) and Covid-19 (everyone else) because we did have all the components. There was a pb consensus that Sanders led only because the moderate vote was split, and that Mayor Pete and Amy dropping out would mean its coalescence around Biden. It is particularly painful for me as I'd posted several times over the month that we knew Sanders' ceiling from last time when Hillary had tolerated rather than opposed him after she'd sewn up (some would say stitched up) the nomination.
But we did not collectively make the obvious next step that this meant Biden was likely to win states where he'd hitherto not been competitive, where he'd been third in the betting. That was the plausible outsider: not Buttigieg for the nomination but Biden at double figures in Maine, Massachusetts and doubtless other states where I am too lazy to click the Betfair graphs.
*cough*
I suggested Biden @ 16/1 to win Massachusetts yesterday. Didn't back it myself as I don't really bet, wish I had.
Am very lucky to be up here after some major reds on Sanders, Harris and Biden at various points. Luckily a big bet and then cash out on Warren saved me, but also squandered some lucky longshots (Mayor Pete at >500/1) and overinvested in others (Castro, Hickenlooper).
In general I'm not sure anyone on this forum has called this one all that well. There was a lot of talk about Biden dropping out/being a no-hoper once people saw him.
I think that is right and perhaps we were too distracted by Cheltenham (me) and Covid-19 (everyone else) because we did have all the components. There was a pb consensus that Sanders led only because the moderate vote was split, and that Mayor Pete and Amy dropping out would mean its coalescence around Biden. It is particularly painful for me as I'd posted several times over the month that we knew Sanders' ceiling from last time when Hillary had tolerated rather than opposed him after she'd sewn up (some would say stitched up) the nomination.
But we did not collectively make the obvious next step that this meant Biden was likely to win states where he'd hitherto not been competitive, where he'd been third in the betting. That was the plausible outsider: not Buttigieg for the nomination but Biden at double figures in Maine, Massachusetts and doubtless other states where I am too lazy to click the Betfair graphs.
*cough*
I suggested Biden @ 16/1 to win Massachusetts yesterday. Didn't back it myself as I don't really bet, wish I had.
Don’t be too hard on yourself.
There are lots of moves and plays that look like absolute no brainers with hindsight.
Biden versus Trump is even more of a bummer than Clinton versus Trump.
I would have not voted when offered the choice of Clinton or Trump.
Two drooling dementia patients slugging it out is not going to entice me to vote either.
If the choice is a drooling dementia patient who is a bit sleepy, versus a drooling dementia patient who is totally malevolent, then its no contest whom I want to win.
It certainly puts the Johnson/Corbyn choice in the 2019 GE into perspective. UK not looking too shabby now, guys.
The view from outside the UK, is that it still looks very shabby for you guys! The only exception to this that I can see is the UKs comparatively good preparation for the oncoming virus glitch.
What's interesting is that South Carolina voters weren't remotely swayed by the earlier contests and stuck behind Biden.
Clearly other Super Tuesday voters, as can be clearly seen by Bloomberg's numbers dipping everywhere after the initial early votes have been counted were influenced by the south Carolina result.
So the eternal question is - is it demographics or is it "momentum" ? The answer I think is a bit of both.
Am very lucky to be up here after some major reds on Sanders, Harris and Biden at various points. Luckily a big bet and then cash out on Warren saved me, but also squandered some lucky longshots (Mayor Pete at >500/1) and overinvested in others (Castro, Hickenlooper).
In general I'm not sure anyone on this forum has called this one all that well. There was a lot of talk about Biden dropping out/being a no-hoper once people saw him.
I think that is right and perhaps we were too distracted by Cheltenham (me) and Covid-19 (everyone else) because we did have all the components. There was a pb consensus that Sanders led only because the moderate vote was split, and that Mayor Pete and Amy dropping out would mean its coalescence around Biden. It is particularly painful for me as I'd posted several times over the month that we knew Sanders' ceiling from last time when Hillary had tolerated rather than opposed him after she'd sewn up (some would say stitched up) the nomination.
But we did not collectively make the obvious next step that this meant Biden was likely to win states where he'd hitherto not been competitive, where he'd been third in the betting. That was the plausible outsider: not Buttigieg for the nomination but Biden at double figures in Maine, Massachusetts and doubtless other states where I am too lazy to click the Betfair graphs.
What's interesting is that South Carolina voters weren't remotely swayed by the earlier contests and stuck behind Biden.
Clearly other Super Tuesday voters, as can be clearly seen by Bloomberg's numbers dipping everywhere after the initial early votes have been counted were influenced by the south Carolina result.
So the eternal question is - is it demographics or is it "momentum" ? The answer I think is a bit of both.
You said after South Carolina that no one would care about Iowa again. I think that's true to a point. Without South Carolina - and I guess there's a reason why there are four different types of states pre-Super Tuesday - I think the results would have been very different.
I have a somewhat vague memory of insisting Biden should be standing down and supporting one of the younger moderates only a couple of weeks ago. Still think it probably would have been better actually.
Klobuchar was always a fringe candidate, Buttigieg had almost zero support amongst black voters. Who else was there ? Steyer ? Too unknown.
I think Klobuchar was a much better candidate than Biden. She may have the same weaknesses as Biden in another 20 years though.
Mr. Animal, must disagree. The PM isn't fit for the job and his rival at the election was a far left fool. Just because the US candidates look ropey doesn't mean ours were other than very poor indeed.
What evidence do you have the PM isn't fit for the job?
So far he's faced 3 massive challenges and he's outshone expectations in all 3.
1: New deal by October - told this was impossible, he got it. 2: The election - won a landslide. 3: The virus [so far] - the UK is leading the world in containment and tracking and tracing.
When you compare our response to the virus, to Trumps, our PM is up to the job.
Hard to see how this isn’t just a carbon copy of 2016 to be honest.
Unless there’s a recession, suspect Trump stays
Up until 4 weeks ago I was certain Trump would be re-elected.
Coronavirus totally alters that. Alters everything in the world. How that affects Trump's chances if there is still an election in November ... I haven't a scoobies right now.
Funny thing is my Cashout value on the market is basically exactly where it was 10 days ago despite a frenetic series of trades. My great SC call followed by a terrible. Super Tuesday gamble.
Don't beat yourself up, noone has traded this perfectly !
Mr. Animal, must disagree. The PM isn't fit for the job and his rival at the election was a far left fool. Just because the US candidates look ropey doesn't mean ours were other than very poor indeed.
What evidence do you have the PM isn't fit for the job?
So far he's faced 3 massive challenges and he's outshone expectations in all 3.
1: New deal by October - told this was impossible, he got it. 2: The election - won a landslide. 3: The virus [so far] - the UK is leading the world in containment and tracking and tracing.
When you compare our response to the virus, to Trumps, our PM is up to the job.
Well. Has Boris actually got a new deal/???.. we await the results...
Mr. Animal, must disagree. The PM isn't fit for the job and his rival at the election was a far left fool. Just because the US candidates look ropey doesn't mean ours were other than very poor indeed.
What evidence do you have the PM isn't fit for the job?
3: The virus [so far] - the UK is leading the world in containment and tracking and tracing.
Crikey, what hubris. We have no idea if we are anywhere near 'leading the world.' Yes we've been testing a lot but we certainly have NOT been containing it. Nothing like it. And nothing like the Chinese lockdowns.
Mr. Thompson, the EU situation is ongoing. We'll see how it turns out. Likewise the virus.
He did beat Corbyn handily. Winning an election and governing well are not the same thing, although the country not being governed by a far left moron is a very positive thing.
On fitness for the job: he only resigned from Cabinet to run after David Davis shouting 'Me too!' He didn't do it a week or two earlier, on principle, when the Heathrow vote was happening and he was too busy hiding under a table in Afghanistan.
To govern is to choose. And he chose to hide thousands of miles away.
Maybe he'll prove me wrong. He hasn't yet. He is preferable to Corbyn, but that's a damned low hurdle.
Warren and Bloomberg have swapped places in the < 1% in California (NYTimes needle). Indicates Warren may rise but more likely Bloomberg will drop to sub 15.
Mr. Animal, must disagree. The PM isn't fit for the job and his rival at the election was a far left fool. Just because the US candidates look ropey doesn't mean ours were other than very poor indeed.
What evidence do you have the PM isn't fit for the job?
So far he's faced 3 massive challenges and he's outshone expectations in all 3.
1: New deal by October - told this was impossible, he got it. 2: The election - won a landslide. 3: The virus [so far] - the UK is leading the world in containment and tracking and tracing.
When you compare our response to the virus, to Trumps, our PM is up to the job.
Well. Has Boris actually got a new deal/???.. we await the results...
Funny thing is my Cashout value on the market is basically exactly where it was 10 days ago despite a frenetic series of trades. My great SC call followed by a terrible. Super Tuesday gamble.
Don't beat yourself up, noone has traded this perfectly !
Why didn't I lay my massive Warren green when she hit evens???
Mr. Animal, must disagree. The PM isn't fit for the job and his rival at the election was a far left fool. Just because the US candidates look ropey doesn't mean ours were other than very poor indeed.
What evidence do you have the PM isn't fit for the job?
So far he's faced 3 massive challenges and he's outshone expectations in all 3.
1: New deal by October - told this was impossible, he got it. 2: The election - won a landslide. 3: The virus [so far] - the UK is leading the world in containment and tracking and tracing.
When you compare our response to the virus, to Trumps, our PM is up to the job.
Well. Has Boris actually got a new deal/???.. we await the results...
If it is to be Biden, he has to find some way of generating enthusiasm. I think he needs a big (but realistic so not Medicare for All) offer on health.
Perhaps paid sick leave for all employees?
I mean it's a pretty mental that >1/3 Americans don't get paid sick leave, and so are literally going to have a choice of ignore public health guidance and risk spreading pandemic or lose wages.
Mr. Animal, must disagree. The PM isn't fit for the job and his rival at the election was a far left fool. Just because the US candidates look ropey doesn't mean ours were other than very poor indeed.
What evidence do you have the PM isn't fit for the job?
So far he's faced 3 massive challenges and he's outshone expectations in all 3.
1: New deal by October - told this was impossible, he got it. 2: The election - won a landslide. 3: The virus [so far] - the UK is leading the world in containment and tracking and tracing.
When you compare our response to the virus, to Trumps, our PM is up to the job.
Johnson didn’t win a landslide. He won though.
He got a new deal by abandoning all his redlines.
What does he have to do with our response when he’s been hiding? PHE deserve the credit.
If it is to be Biden, he has to find some way of generating enthusiasm. I think he needs a big (but realistic so not Medicare for All) offer on health.
Perhaps paid sick leave for all employees?
I mean it's a pretty mental that >1/3 Americans don't get paid sick leave, and so are literally going to have a choice of ignore public health guidance and risk spreading pandemic or lose wages.
Going to be hard for Biden to run on healthcare when he looks to be the guy most in need of it.....
Mr. Thompson, the EU situation is ongoing. We'll see how it turns out. Likewise the virus.
He did beat Corbyn handily. Winning an election and governing well are not the same thing, although the country not being governed by a far left moron is a very positive thing.
On fitness for the job: he only resigned from Cabinet to run after David Davis shouting 'Me too!' He didn't do it a week or two earlier, on principle, when the Heathrow vote was happening and he was too busy hiding under a table in Afghanistan.
To govern is to choose. And he chose to hide thousands of miles away.
Maybe he'll prove me wrong. He hasn't yet. He is preferable to Corbyn, but that's a damned low hurdle.
Those are actions while Theresa May was PM, and yes Theresa May was a terrible PM with a terribly split Cabinet that was not managed properly.
Since being elected Johnson has been choosing. As well as the options I gave you can also include the decision on HS2 etc and its still early days.
If it is to be Biden, he has to find some way of generating enthusiasm. I think he needs a big (but realistic so not Medicare for All) offer on health.
Perhaps paid sick leave for all employees?
I mean it's a pretty mental that >1/3 Americans don't get paid sick leave, and so are literally going to have a choice of ignore public health guidance and risk spreading pandemic or lose wages.
Reading te pages on Lifehacker, it seems that many Americans, who do have paid sick leave, only have a fixed quota of allowed sick days (often 5 days) in a year.
I find this just crazy. If you are sick, you have no way of controlling how long you are sick for.
Mr. Animal, must disagree. The PM isn't fit for the job and his rival at the election was a far left fool. Just because the US candidates look ropey doesn't mean ours were other than very poor indeed.
What evidence do you have the PM isn't fit for the job?
So far he's faced 3 massive challenges and he's outshone expectations in all 3.
1: New deal by October - told this was impossible, he got it. 2: The election - won a landslide. 3: The virus [so far] - the UK is leading the world in containment and tracking and tracing.
When you compare our response to the virus, to Trumps, our PM is up to the job.
Well. Has Boris actually got a new deal/???.. we await the results...
Yes its been ratified and implemented already.
what's this end of year deadline then?
To get a trade deal, not a Brexit deal.
Independent countries sign trade deals all the time.
Mr. Animal, must disagree. The PM isn't fit for the job and his rival at the election was a far left fool. Just because the US candidates look ropey doesn't mean ours were other than very poor indeed.
What evidence do you have the PM isn't fit for the job?
So far he's faced 3 massive challenges and he's outshone expectations in all 3.
1: New deal by October - told this was impossible, he got it. 2: The election - won a landslide. 3: The virus [so far] - the UK is leading the world in containment and tracking and tracing.
When you compare our response to the virus, to Trumps, our PM is up to the job.
Well. Has Boris actually got a new deal/???.. we await the results...
He has a deal which even the Telegraph are spotting fundamental flaws in - but hey my new MP says this isn't the case when I pointed it out to him...
If it is to be Biden, he has to find some way of generating enthusiasm. I think he needs a big (but realistic so not Medicare for All) offer on health.
Perhaps paid sick leave for all employees?
I mean it's a pretty mental that >1/3 Americans don't get paid sick leave, and so are literally going to have a choice of ignore public health guidance and risk spreading pandemic or lose wages.
It could be difficult to do that partly on the back of winning the nomination over Sanders supposed 'extremism' on this exact topic, though.
I just really struggle to see him having the agility to beat Trump, but if there's a huge crisis who knows.
There is an irony in that massive healthcare fallout could have been one of the few situations where Sanders might have made inroads into his challenging states, possibly more than Biden, but on the other hand Biden may attract more of the soft republican vote.
Either way, as others have mentioned, barring a catastrophe in both public health and the economy, Trump looks hard to beat.
If it is to be Biden, he has to find some way of generating enthusiasm. I think he needs a big (but realistic so not Medicare for All) offer on health.
Perhaps paid sick leave for all employees?
I mean it's a pretty mental that >1/3 Americans don't get paid sick leave, and so are literally going to have a choice of ignore public health guidance and risk spreading pandemic or lose wages.
Going to be hard for Biden to run on healthcare when he looks to be the guy most in need of it.....
But his experience with Beau is a great example of how even the richest families with "good" health insurance can be brought to the financial brink by a serious illness. Tapping into these fears of many middle class Americans could be a vote winner.
Mr. Animal, must disagree. The PM isn't fit for the job and his rival at the election was a far left fool. Just because the US candidates look ropey doesn't mean ours were other than very poor indeed.
What evidence do you have the PM isn't fit for the job?
So far he's faced 3 massive challenges and he's outshone expectations in all 3.
1: New deal by October - told this was impossible, he got it. 2: The election - won a landslide. 3: The virus [so far] - the UK is leading the world in containment and tracking and tracing.
When you compare our response to the virus, to Trumps, our PM is up to the job.
Well. Has Boris actually got a new deal/???.. we await the results...
Given the US healthcare system, COVID19, Biden's faculties, his very good position in this race and his likely VP pick, Harris at 1000.0 is worth £2 for POTUS.
If it is to be Biden, he has to find some way of generating enthusiasm. I think he needs a big (but realistic so not Medicare for All) offer on health.
Perhaps paid sick leave for all employees?
I mean it's a pretty mental that >1/3 Americans don't get paid sick leave, and so are literally going to have a choice of ignore public health guidance and risk spreading pandemic or lose wages.
Reading te pages on Lifehacker, it seems that many Americans, who do have paid sick leave, only have a fixed quota of allowed sick days (often 5 days) in a year.
I find this just crazy. If you are sick, you have no way of controlling how long you are sick for.
Well I woudl think nearly all UK employees have a "fixed quota" of sick days that they get paid for by their employees - Its just the length of the quota that varies
I genuinely think Biden is a terrible candidate all said and done.
I think he's 50/50 against Trump. Unclear whether he will generate the enthusiasm to get Dems to the polls.
Klobuchar would have crushed Trump. Oh well, we are where we are. At least it's not Bloomberg.
An oddly contradictory statement in that the reason Klobuchar dropped out is that she demonstrably failed to generate enthusiasm to get Dems to the polls (albeit she wasn't alone in that).
If it is to be Biden, he has to find some way of generating enthusiasm. I think he needs a big (but realistic so not Medicare for All) offer on health.
Perhaps paid sick leave for all employees?
I mean it's a pretty mental that >1/3 Americans don't get paid sick leave, and so are literally going to have a choice of ignore public health guidance and risk spreading pandemic or lose wages.
Reading te pages on Lifehacker, it seems that many Americans, who do have paid sick leave, only have a fixed quota of allowed sick days (often 5 days) in a year.
I find this just crazy. If you are sick, you have no way of controlling how long you are sick for.
It is the allocation of risk. The employer pays 5 days then the risk passes to the employee. In this country there are increasing millions of gig workers who get nothing when sick. The consequences for people wanting to work even if they may be ill are troubling.
Have to say I'm feeling better about this all than I was after Iowa.
Have to say I'm glad that in 2016 (with the GOP) and this year with the Dems the early results this year in Iowa and New Hampshire allowed me to get out of major holes.
PS - What happened to that iron rule* that you had to win one of Iowa or New Hampshire to be the nominee.
Hard to see how this isn’t just a carbon copy of 2016 to be honest.
Unless there’s a recession, suspect Trump stays
FWIW (and it’s CA so makes no difference) my wife - a GOP stalwart - will vote Biden over Trump. It’s kind of “I can’t believe I’m going to have to vote for Biden” but she wouldn’t vote for Warren or Sanders
Equally she voted Bill Weld in the GOP primary so quite a niche slice of the party...
If it is to be Biden, he has to find some way of generating enthusiasm. I think he needs a big (but realistic so not Medicare for All) offer on health.
Perhaps paid sick leave for all employees?
I mean it's a pretty mental that >1/3 Americans don't get paid sick leave, and so are literally going to have a choice of ignore public health guidance and risk spreading pandemic or lose wages.
Reading te pages on Lifehacker, it seems that many Americans, who do have paid sick leave, only have a fixed quota of allowed sick days (often 5 days) in a year.
I find this just crazy. If you are sick, you have no way of controlling how long you are sick for.
Well I woudl think nearly all UK employees have a "fixed quota" of sick days that they get paid for by their employees - Its just the length of the quota that varies
But in the UK the government pays you once you exceed that point, and an employer can't sack you based on number of sick days taken.
If it is to be Biden, he has to find some way of generating enthusiasm. I think he needs a big (but realistic so not Medicare for All) offer on health.
Perhaps paid sick leave for all employees?
I mean it's a pretty mental that >1/3 Americans don't get paid sick leave, and so are literally going to have a choice of ignore public health guidance and risk spreading pandemic or lose wages.
It could be difficult to do that partly on the back of winning the nomination over Sanders supposed 'extremism' on this exact topic, though.
I just really struggle to see him having the agility to beat Trump, but if there's a huge crisis, who knows.
There is an irony in that massive healthcare fallout could have been one of the few situations where Sanders might have made inroads into his challenging states, possibly more than Biden, but on the other hand Biden may attract more of the soft republican vote.
Either way, as others have mentioned, barring a catastrophe in both public health and the economy, Trump looks hard to beat.
Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million. He won 3 states by tiny majorities. The Republican vote was similar to previous elections while the Democrat vote was significantly down. He was lucky in 2016.
Comments
In general I'm not sure anyone on this forum has called this one all that well. There was a lot of talk about Biden dropping out/being a no-hoper once people saw him.
His underperformance in Iowa and NH seems a long time ago.now. Due to other candidates outspending him, while Biden was focused on Super Tuesday, or a sign there isn't much enthusiasm for him beyond his perceived ability to beat Trump?
Edit: "destroying" may be too strong, but I recall Sanders being closer than this last time out.
Sanders is an awful candidate.
Trump is an awful President.
Leaders of the free world.
This, of course, makes Biden’s choice of running mate unusually important. At best, he will be no more than a 1 term president; are there any markets up on whether the 25th Amendment is exercised in the next 4 years?
Biden versus Trump is even more of a bummer than Clinton versus Trump.
I would have not voted when offered the choice of Clinton or Trump.
Two drooling dementia patients slugging it out is not going to entice me to vote either.
Klobuchar would have crushed Trump. Oh well, we are where we are.
At least it's not Bloomberg.
I just hope Biden isn't so awful that he loses to Trump. At least unlike Hillary I don't think he'll fail to campaign in the midwest.
Good news. I may check to see if I can hedge Biden in the presidential market as well.
And I think Bernie supporters are not going to be very impressed with Biden as nominee after their optimism their man could win. Are they going to be motivated by saving Obamacare, when they want to replace it with Medicare for All anyway?
Unless there’s a recession, suspect Trump stays
I do worry about Biden's mental health - apparently he briefly mixed up who his sister was last night?
But we did not collectively make the obvious next step that this meant Biden was likely to win states where he'd hitherto not been competitive, where he'd been third in the betting. That was the plausible outsider: not Buttigieg for the nomination but Biden at double figures in Maine, Massachusetts and doubtless other states where I am too lazy to click the Betfair graphs.
Trump’s now going to rile up the Sanders supports to stay at home, by saying the Dems are stitching up the contest, then he’ll accuse Biden of being corrupt over his Ukraine dealings.
Difficult to see past Trump now.
The Big Liz blowing it in November will have her and my bank balance cursing themselves.
Is no-one thinking things through?
I suggested Biden @ 16/1 to win Massachusetts yesterday. Didn't back it myself as I don't really bet, wish I had.
I sat out Corbyn versus Johnson versus Swinson in GE 2019.
I don't have a vote in Trump v Biden, but if I did, I certainly would not vote (or possibly I might choose a third party candidate).
I would withhold my consent from Trump or Biden.
There are lots of moves and plays that look like absolute no brainers with hindsight.
But, you never know that at the time.
Never.
The only exception to this that I can see is the UKs comparatively good preparation for the oncoming virus glitch.
Clearly other Super Tuesday voters, as can be clearly seen by Bloomberg's numbers dipping everywhere after the initial early votes have been counted were influenced by the south Carolina result.
So the eternal question is - is it demographics or is it "momentum" ? The answer I think is a bit of both.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qmBivUlPXE (@9:40)
So far he's faced 3 massive challenges and he's outshone expectations in all 3.
1: New deal by October - told this was impossible, he got it.
2: The election - won a landslide.
3: The virus [so far] - the UK is leading the world in containment and tracking and tracing.
When you compare our response to the virus, to Trumps, our PM is up to the job.
Coronavirus totally alters that. Alters everything in the world. How that affects Trump's chances if there is still an election in November ... I haven't a scoobies right now.
Watch my words.
He did beat Corbyn handily. Winning an election and governing well are not the same thing, although the country not being governed by a far left moron is a very positive thing.
On fitness for the job: he only resigned from Cabinet to run after David Davis shouting 'Me too!' He didn't do it a week or two earlier, on principle, when the Heathrow vote was happening and he was too busy hiding under a table in Afghanistan.
To govern is to choose. And he chose to hide thousands of miles away.
Maybe he'll prove me wrong. He hasn't yet. He is preferable to Corbyn, but that's a damned low hurdle.
I think he needs a big (but realistic so not Medicare for All) offer on health.
Perhaps paid sick leave for all employees?
I mean it's a pretty mental that >1/3 Americans don't get paid sick leave, and so are literally going to have a choice of ignore public health guidance and risk spreading pandemic or lose wages.
Who will he pick ? Harris.
He got a new deal by abandoning all his redlines.
What does he have to do with our response when he’s been hiding? PHE deserve the credit.
Since being elected Johnson has been choosing. As well as the options I gave you can also include the decision on HS2 etc and its still early days.
I find this just crazy. If you are sick, you have no way of controlling how long you are sick for.
Independent countries sign trade deals all the time.
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1234905203989762056
I just really struggle to see him having the agility to beat Trump, but if there's a huge crisis who knows.
There is an irony in that massive healthcare fallout could have been one of the few situations where Sanders might have made inroads into his challenging states, possibly more than Biden, but on the other hand Biden may attract more of the soft republican vote.
Either way, as others have mentioned, barring a catastrophe in both public health and the economy, Trump looks hard to beat.
PS - What happened to that iron rule* that you had to win one of Iowa or New Hampshire to be the nominee.
*Well since 1992.
Equally she voted Bill Weld in the GOP primary so quite a niche slice of the party...