politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The undoubted winner tonight with California still to come is

The split between early vote and election day is huge too. If everyone had only voted today then Biden would win all but Vermont and possibly California. That is Sanders ultimate problem, since later states don't have so many early votes cast before Biden got it together.

On the other hand, there is time left. But as it stands Biden is the most popular candidate right now in the South, Midwest, and most of the North East. The Latino-heavy states and bits of the North East/Mountains aren't enough for Sanders.

California exit poll due at 4am

eadric said:

What a tragic choice for America. Hopefully coronavirus will kill off ALL the candidates and they can look at someone smarter and younger.

Worst thing is, I’M NOT JOKING

Hillary is self-isolating just in case.

https://twitter.com/Psythor/status/1235051638156668929

California: too close to call.
Texas is forecast to be 50/50 with 26% reporting.

Anyone else think that one way or another a majority winner is likely? The truth is maybe 10% of delegates at most will go to non-Biden/Sanders candidates if Warren and Bloomberg drop out or leak support following this, so even with a proportionate system a majority winner is pretty likely.

I've put some money up at 2.2 on Betfair.

Quincel said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Andy_JS said:

California: too close to call.
Texas is forecast to be 50/50 with 26% reporting.

But Sanders was supposed to be strolling it in these states. The Joe-mentum is real.

Agreed. Sanders is very strong with hispanic voters. CA/TX are big states, but they are also rare states with large hispanic minorities. Sanders needs more than what they and similar places can offer.

The rest of the primaries and territories still to vote offer little hope for Sanders, he won something like 10 out of 36 last time.

The Needle says 50:50 tossup, but The Cook Political Report editor thinks Texas is a Biden win.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1235055668299583488

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

An NBC contributor I follow on Twitter has just called Texas for Biden, treat with caution, not seeing it anywhere else yet.

But huge, if true.

NYT still has it 50/50.

MikeSmithson said:

So the man who confuses his sister for his wife will be the one to take on Trump.

I thought Elizabeth Warren would have been the best candidate, but for some reason her campaign didn't take off.

Bloomberg doing well in California with about 20% based on early voting.

California 11% in

Sanders 27%
Bloomberg 19%
Biden 17%

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-california-president-democrat-primary-election.html

RobD said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

An NBC contributor I follow on Twitter has just called Texas for Biden, treat with caution, not seeing it anywhere else yet.

But huge, if true.

Big if huge.

Number of delegates matters more than who "won". And by the end of the day, Biden will be leading.

Now, you can argue that the states we have had today are Biden friendly - and that's true.

But there are lots of even more Biden friendly states to come, such as Florida.

Texas 52% in

Sanders 28.5%
Biden 27.3%

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/texas

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

An NBC contributor I follow on Twitter has just called Texas for Biden, treat with caution, not seeing it anywhere else yet.

But huge, if true.

Big if huge.

Number of delegates matters more than who "won". And by the end of the day, Biden will be leading.

Now, you can argue that the states we have had today are Biden friendly - and that's true.

But there are lots of even more Biden friendly states to come, such as Florida.

Bloomberg has led in Florida if he stays in

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

An NBC contributor I follow on Twitter has just called Texas for Biden, treat with caution, not seeing it anywhere else yet.

But huge, if true.

Big if huge.

Number of delegates matters more than who "won". And by the end of the day, Biden will be leading.

Now, you can argue that the states we have had today are Biden friendly - and that's true.

But there are lots of even more Biden friendly states to come, such as Florida.

Bloomberg has led in Florida if he stays in

Fair point.

I should have said "Sanders unfriendly states, such as Florida"

Andy_JS said:

NBC News just showed large numbers of voters still waiting to vote in California. New touch screen voting machines not working properly.

And some people still voting in Texas since they were in line when polls closed hours ago. It is an underrated aspect of low US election turnout just how few polling booths they have compared to the UK or other countries. Tgey allow early voting for ages and sometimes even in person early voting, but on the day it is poor.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

An NBC contributor I follow on Twitter has just called Texas for Biden, treat with caution, not seeing it anywhere else yet.

But huge, if true.

Biden now leading in Texas

HYUFD said:

PaulM said:

IF Biden wins Texas and Bloomberg pulls out, then this is over as a contest.

Hardly with Sanders having won California, the biggest state in the nation.

Warren also likely to drop out soon and her votes will go to Sanders too.

With over half the votes in Sanders also still narrowly leads in Texas, the BernieBros will rather a civil war now than let their man lose

At the end of today, with Sanders best states behind him, he's going to be 70 delegates behind Biden.

He's highly unlikely to end up with a plurality of the delegates now.

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

PaulM said:

IF Biden wins Texas and Bloomberg pulls out, then this is over as a contest.

Hardly with Sanders having won California, the biggest state in the nation.

Warren also likely to drop out soon and her votes will go to Sanders too.

With over half the votes in Sanders also still narrowly leads in Texas, the BernieBros will rather a civil war now than let their man lose

At the end of today, with Sanders best states behind him, he's going to be 70 delegates behind Biden.

He's highly unlikely to end up with a plurality of the delegates now.

Today's states actually favoured Biden more than Sanders given how many were southern, if he wins New York, Illinois etc Sanders could still well win a plurality of delegates

PaulM said:

HYUFD said:

PaulM said:

IF Biden wins Texas and Bloomberg pulls out, then this is over as a contest.

Hardly with Sanders having won California, the biggest state in the nation.

Warren also likely to drop out soon and her votes will go to Sanders too.

With over half the votes in Sanders also still narrowly leads in Texas, the BernieBros will rather a civil war now than let their man lose

Don't forget when it came to it Warren endorsed Hillary rather than Bernie last time..

Warren only endorsed Hillary in mid June 2016 after she had won a majority of delegates

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

PaulM said:

IF Biden wins Texas and Bloomberg pulls out, then this is over as a contest.

Hardly with Sanders having won California, the biggest state in the nation.

Warren also likely to drop out soon and her votes will go to Sanders too.

With over half the votes in Sanders also still narrowly leads in Texas, the BernieBros will rather a civil war now than let their man lose

At the end of today, with Sanders best states behind him, he's going to be 70 delegates behind Biden.

He's highly unlikely to end up with a plurality of the delegates now.

Today's states actually favoured Biden more than Sanders given how many were southern, if he wins New York, Illinois etc Sanders could still well win a plurality of delegates

But Biden won North Eastern states, like Virginia*, Massachusetts, Maine and Minnesota**.

If he's winning those, he's probably going to win New York and Illinois. And Sanders is struggling to get to 20% in Florida.

But look, don't take my word for it. Look at the 538 forecasts tomorrow morning.

* Virginia is on the border of the North East...
** Minnesota is probably more Mid West... But then again, so is Illinois

Biden won Massachusetts and Maine as Warren split the left liberal vote

Anabobazina said:

A tough night for HYUFD. Sanders, for whom he has been ramp-maker general, is getting his arse kicked.

Sanders has won California, the biggest state in the nation.

I have also long said Biden would be a better bet for the general but Sanders has done well enough his supporters can potentially split the Democratic party asunder at the convention so badly Biden would face Humphreys fate in 1968 and Trump like Nixon then will win against a divided Democratic party

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

PaulM said:

IF Biden wins Texas and Bloomberg pulls out, then this is over as a contest.

Hardly with Sanders having won California, the biggest state in the nation.

Warren also likely to drop out soon and her votes will go to Sanders too.

With over half the votes in Sanders also still narrowly leads in Texas, the BernieBros will rather a civil war now than let their man lose

At the end of today, with Sanders best states behind him, he's going to be 70 delegates behind Biden.

He's highly unlikely to end up with a plurality of the delegates now.

Today's states actually favoured Biden more than Sanders given how many were southern, if he wins New York, Illinois etc Sanders could still well win a plurality of delegates

But Biden won North Eastern states, like Virginia*, Massachusetts, Maine and Minnesota**.

If he's winning those, he's probably going to win New York and Illinois. And Sanders is struggling to get to 20% in Florida.

But look, don't take my word for it. Look at the 538 forecasts tomorrow morning.

* Virginia is on the border of the North East...
** Minnesota is probably more Mid West... But then again, so is Illinois

Biden won Massachusetts and Maine as Warren split the left liberal vote

Yes, obviously.

But are you disagreeing with my contention that Sanders will find it very difficult to win a plurality now?

So strong pattern in pretty much all the states apart from Vermont and the mountain west - Bernie and Bloomberg did well in early voting, Biden did a lot better on the day.

PaulM said:

HYUFD said:

PaulM said:

HYUFD said:

PaulM said:

IF Biden wins Texas and Bloomberg pulls out, then this is over as a contest.

Hardly with Sanders having won California, the biggest state in the nation.

Warren also likely to drop out soon and her votes will go to Sanders too.

With over half the votes in Sanders also still narrowly leads in Texas, the BernieBros will rather a civil war now than let their man lose

Don't forget when it came to it Warren endorsed Hillary rather than Bernie last time..

Warren only endorsed Hillary in mid June 2016 after she had won a majority of delegates

True, but when she had the chance to make a difference for Bernie around the time of the Mass primary she chose not to.

As of tonight Warren's campaign is over and much of her vote will now go to Sanders

TimT said:

So strong pattern in pretty much all the states apart from Vermont and the mountain west - Bernie and Bloomberg did well in early voting, Biden did a lot better on the day.

Throughout this process (and with very few exceptions), one thing has held steady: the moderate lane has gotten 60% of the votes, and the left lane 40%.

Which, coincidentally, matched what surveys of Democratic Primary voters have said they want.

As Klobuchar and Buttigieg (both of whom would have been much better candidates than Biden) left the race and endorsed him, the moderate lane coalesced.

When that happened, Sanders chances shrunk dramatically. It's worth noting with all this "Oh, but Sanders won California...", he only won it because of early votes for Klobuchar and Buttigieg that have ended up being wasted. Add 75% of those votes to Biden and he grabs California.

So how could Sanders turn it around? Outside the West and his home state, where's he strong?

HYUFD said:

PaulM said:

HYUFD said:

PaulM said:

HYUFD said:

PaulM said:

IF Biden wins Texas and Bloomberg pulls out, then this is over as a contest.

Hardly with Sanders having won California, the biggest state in the nation.

Warren also likely to drop out soon and her votes will go to Sanders too.

With over half the votes in Sanders also still narrowly leads in Texas, the BernieBros will rather a civil war now than let their man lose

Don't forget when it came to it Warren endorsed Hillary rather than Bernie last time..

Warren only endorsed Hillary in mid June 2016 after she had won a majority of delegates

True, but when she had the chance to make a difference for Bernie around the time of the Mass primary she chose not to.

As of tonight Warren's campaign is over and much of her vote will now go to Sanders

As of tonight, Bloomberg's campaign is over and ALL of his vote will go to Biden

Nigelb said:

So who gets the VP pick now ?

I think Clyburn gets to choose

Anabobazina said:

HYUFD said:

Anabobazina said:

A tough night for HYUFD. Sanders, for whom he has been ramp-maker general, is getting his arse kicked.

Sanders has won California, the biggest state in the nation.

I have also long said Biden would be a better bet for the general but Sanders has done well enough his supporters can potentially split the Democratic party asunder at the convention so badly Biden would face Humphreys fate in 1968 and Trump like Nixon then will win against a divided Democratic party

You seem very rattled. Sanders is losing, not winning, as you endlessly told us he would. It’s okay to be wrong, but you are incapable of admitting it

Sanders has won the biggest state in the nation tonight even if he did a bit worse than expected I will not be admitting anything until June when the vast majority of states have voted regarding the nomination, most states are still to vote and once Warren goes out much of her vote goes to Sanders too

rcs1000 said:

TimT said:

So strong pattern in pretty much all the states apart from Vermont and the mountain west - Bernie and Bloomberg did well in early voting, Biden did a lot better on the day.

Throughout this process (and with very few exceptions), one thing has held steady: the moderate lane has gotten 60% of the votes, and the left lane 40%.

Which, coincidentally, matched what surveys of Democratic Primary voters have said they want.

As Klobuchar and Buttigieg (both of whom would have been much better candidates than Biden) left the race and endorsed him, the moderate lane coalesced.

When that happened, Sanders chances shrunk dramatically. It's worth noting with all this "Oh, but Sanders won California...", he only won it because of early votes for Klobuchar and Buttigieg that have ended up being wasted. Add 75% of those votes to Biden and he grabs California.

So how could Sanders turn it around? Outside the West and his home state, where's he strong?

Indeed, it's really hard to see any result other than an outright Biden win now

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

PaulM said:

IF Biden wins Texas and Bloomberg pulls out, then this is over as a contest.

Hardly with Sanders having won California, the biggest state in the nation.

Warren also likely to drop out soon and her votes will go to Sanders too.

With over half the votes in Sanders also still narrowly leads in Texas, the BernieBros will rather a civil war now than let their man lose

At the end of today, with Sanders best states behind him, he's going to be 70 delegates behind Biden.

He's highly unlikely to end up with a plurality of the delegates now.

Today's states actually favoured Biden more than Sanders given how many were southern, if he wins New York, Illinois etc Sanders could still well win a plurality of delegates

But Biden won North Eastern states, like Virginia*, Massachusetts, Maine and Minnesota**.

If he's winning those, he's probably going to win New York and Illinois. And Sanders is struggling to get to 20% in Florida.

But look, don't take my word for it. Look at the 538 forecasts tomorrow morning.

* Virginia is on the border of the North East...
** Minnesota is probably more Mid West... But then again, so is Illinois

Biden won Massachusetts and Maine as Warren split the left liberal vote

Yes, obviously.

But are you disagreeing with my contention that Sanders will find it very difficult to win a plurality now?

That depends, he will go after Biden hard in the next debate and most of the remaining states are non southern with plenty of caucuses too where Sanders can rack up delegates

The only caucuses remaining (in the Continental US) is in Wyoming. (You can add Guam and the Marianas if you want to go further afield.)

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

PaulM said:

IF Biden wins Texas and Bloomberg pulls out, then this is over as a contest.

Hardly with Sanders having won California, the biggest state in the nation.

Warren also likely to drop out soon and her votes will go to Sanders too.

With over half the votes in Sanders also still narrowly leads in Texas, the BernieBros will rather a civil war now than let their man lose

At the end of today, with Sanders best states behind him, he's going to be 70 delegates behind Biden.

He's highly unlikely to end up with a plurality of the delegates now.

Today's states actually favoured Biden more than Sanders given how many were southern, if he wins New York, Illinois etc Sanders could still well win a plurality of delegates

But Biden won North Eastern states, like Virginia*, Massachusetts, Maine and Minnesota**.

If he's winning those, he's probably going to win New York and Illinois. And Sanders is struggling to get to 20% in Florida.

But look, don't take my word for it. Look at the 538 forecasts tomorrow morning.

* Virginia is on the border of the North East...
** Minnesota is probably more Mid West... But then again, so is Illinois

Biden won Massachusetts and Maine as Warren split the left liberal vote

Yes, obviously.

But are you disagreeing with my contention that Sanders will find it very difficult to win a plurality now?

That depends, he will go after Biden hard in the next debate and most of the remaining states are non southern with plenty of caucuses too where Sanders can rack up delegates

The only caucuses remaining (in the Continental US) is in Wyoming. (You can add Guam and the Marianas if you want to go further afield.)

North Dakota too

Sandpit said:

Andy_JS said:

NBC News just showed large numbers of voters still waiting to vote in California. New touch screen voting machines not working properly.

What is this American obsession with voting machines?

It will again take California weeks to certify the election result in November (or more likely December!), meanwhile the UK can have the same number of votes counted overnight after our election, and everything completed within a day.

In Japan they get them counted overnight and the technology deployed doesn't even involve *checkboxes*, the counters have to decipher everyone's handwriting...

Biden 1.3 now, Sanders out to 6. Hillary Clinton a clear third favourite on 44, and F*** Bloomberg way out past 100...

Any chance Sanders runs for president as a third party candidate?

https://twitter.com/ezraklein/status/1235074415202693121

edmundintokyo said:

Sandpit said:

Andy_JS said:

NBC News just showed large numbers of voters still waiting to vote in California. New touch screen voting machines not working properly.

What is this American obsession with voting machines?

It will again take California weeks to certify the election result in November (or more likely December!), meanwhile the UK can have the same number of votes counted overnight after our election, and everything completed within a day.

In Japan they get them counted overnight and the technology deployed doesn't even involve *checkboxes*, the counters have to decipher everyone's handwriting...

That’s impressive.

I find it very telling that some of the biggest opposition to voting machines is found among those who work in technology fields. When tech guys (and gals) say scrap the machines and use paper and pencil, maybe those in charge of running the elections should take note.

Am I missing something? Isn't this a Democratic run selection process?

https://twitter.com/TVietor08/status/1235051571638988800

Doesn't this show that they need to sort their own house out?

So it looks like after tonight the Democrats will have a choice. Go with the winner of most of the states they need to try and win in November to beat Trump, or go with the winner of California.

If they do the latter they've learnt nothing since 4 years ago.

edmundintokyo said:

tlg86 said:

Am I missing something? Isn't this a Democratic run selection process?

https://twitter.com/TVietor08/status/1235051571638988800

Doesn't this show that they need to sort their own house out?

IIUC primaries are generally run by the state, so the state gets to decide where there are polling stations, when they're open etc, not the local party.

The parties could avoid this by having caucuses instead but caucuses have their own problems...

That sounds completely mad to me.

HYUFD said:

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

PaulM said:

IF Biden wins Texas and Bloomberg pulls out, then this is over as a contest.

Hardly with Sanders having won California, the biggest state in the nation.

Warren also likely to drop out soon and her votes will go to Sanders too.

With over half the votes in Sanders also still narrowly leads in Texas, the BernieBros will rather a civil war now than let their man lose

At the end of today, with Sanders best states behind him, he's going to be 70 delegates behind Biden.

He's highly unlikely to end up with a plurality of the delegates now.

Today's states actually favoured Biden more than Sanders given how many were southern, if he wins New York, Illinois etc Sanders could still well win a plurality of delegates

But Biden won North Eastern states, like Virginia*, Massachusetts, Maine and Minnesota**.

If he's winning those, he's probably going to win New York and Illinois. And Sanders is struggling to get to 20% in Florida.

But look, don't take my word for it. Look at the 538 forecasts tomorrow morning.

* Virginia is on the border of the North East...
** Minnesota is probably more Mid West... But then again, so is Illinois

Biden won Massachusetts and Maine as Warren split the left liberal vote

Yes, obviously.

But are you disagreeing with my contention that Sanders will find it very difficult to win a plurality now?

That depends, he will go after Biden hard in the next debate and most of the remaining states are non southern with plenty of caucuses too where Sanders can rack up delegates

The only caucuses remaining (in the Continental US) is in Wyoming. (You can add Guam and the Marianas if you want to go further afield.)

North Dakota too

A good time to gently remind you of my past comment that opinion polls are rear view mirrors.
It’s possible to navigate relying on them, but that can lead to accidents.

Biden led national polls for the Democratic nomination for most of the last 3 years, only in the past few weeks did Sanders move ahead

That is hardly an answer to my point.

Nigelb said:

That is hardly an answer to my point.

You expected an answer? He'll spin around quicker than the Tasmanian Devil if the polls shift. If you predict everything the polls ever predict and do so loudly then you can always point to some time you got it right (while forgetting all the times you got it wrong).

Andy_JS said:

An opinion poll in Massachusetts from 7 days ago put Biden on 9%. He won it last night.

Anyone who puts weight on opinion polls and pretends they're facts rather than snapshots is a fool.

HYUFD said:

Anabobazina said:

A tough night for HYUFD. Sanders, for whom he has been ramp-maker general, is getting his arse kicked.

Sanders has won California, the biggest state in the nation.

I have also long said Biden would be a better bet for the general but Sanders has done well enough his supporters can potentially split the Democratic party asunder at the convention so badly Biden would face Humphreys fate in 1968 and Trump like Nixon then will win against a divided Democratic party

Barely won California. It was supposed to be a blowout for Sanders and as it stands he's on 29% with both Bloomberg and Biden past the 15% delegate threshold and with Warren below it.

That's a terrible result for Sanders in what's meant to be his best major state.

tlg86 said:

edmundintokyo said:

tlg86 said:

Am I missing something? Isn't this a Democratic run selection process?

https://twitter.com/TVietor08/status/1235051571638988800

Doesn't this show that they need to sort their own house out?

IIUC primaries are generally run by the state, so the state gets to decide where there are polling stations, when they're open etc, not the local party.

The parties could avoid this by having caucuses instead but caucuses have their own problems...

That sounds completely mad to me.

It's not mad, the state election people are professionals (albeit with all the dysfunctionality you expect of American government) and they already have the job of maintaining a voter registry and running polling stations.

The big avoidable screw-up in this race was the Iowa Caucus, which was run by the local Democratic party, who clearly had no idea WTF they were doing.

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

That is hardly an answer to my point.

You expected an answer? He'll spin around quicker than the Tasmanian Devil if the polls shift. If you predict everything the polls ever predict and do so loudly then you can always point to some time you got it right (while forgetting all the times you got it wrong).

He views acceptance of being wrong as a weakness.

It's actually a strength as it builds trust from others and confidence in you in future.

Interesting results to wake up to. This was my "First" comment in the Mass. thread yesterday, I hope somebody got on at 16/1 . . .

Philip_Thompson said:

Unlikely but amusingly if all Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters followed their candidates example and voted for Biden then he could also win it and either Sanders or Warren could come third.

Available at 16/1, is that value?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/02/texas-polling-sites-closures-voting

How does America even claim to be a true democracy with a straight face? Places that have less than one polling station for 10,000 people?

Nigelb said:

So who gets the VP pick now ?

Warren for her sterling service at spoiling Bernies vote.

CNN reporting from various sources that Bloomberg will pull out today and is anxious not to facilitate a Sanders win. Looks like another endorsement for Sleepy Joe. No doubt Sanders will fight on as he did 4 years ago but this looks all over to me.