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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Super Tuesday: The early results looking good for Biden who mo

SystemSystem Posts: 11,688
edited March 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Super Tuesday: The early results looking good for Biden who moves to a 70% chance on Betfair

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  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    77 is too old. Discuss.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Lets hope Joe can get to November better than he can get to the end of his sentences.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Jonathan said:

    77 is too old. Discuss.

    He appears to have dementia. Discuss.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Warren could be third in Mass. She's out isn't she?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2020
    Tennessee less thsn 1% in


    Biden 25%
    Bloomberg 24%
    Sanders 21%

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-tennessee-president-democrat-primary-election.html
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Jonathan said:

    77 is too old. Discuss.

    He appears to have dementia. Discuss.
    There is something ridiculous and worrisome about this campaign. 77 is too old.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Jonathan said:

    77 is too old. Discuss.

    He appears to have dementia. Discuss.
    I don't think he does, he was always like that.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    I think Biden is going to win TX.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,609
    Jonathan said:

    77 is too old. Discuss.

    Um, Bernie Sanders is 78 and has recently had a heart attack. This is not a great set of options, but these are the options.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edmundintokyo said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Jonathan said:

    77 is too old. Discuss.

    He appears to have dementia. Discuss.
    I don't think he does, he was always like that.
    Always this bad?

    He was always a windbag like Kinnock, but now he is like a Kinnock with dementia. Its quite sad to see.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Jonathan said:

    77 is too old. Discuss.

    Um, Bernie Sanders is 78 and has recently had a heart attack. This is not a great set of options, but these are the options.
    Are we stunted as a generation that we need these paternalistic relics?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2020
    Oklahoma less than 1% in

    Bloomberg 24%
    Biden 22%
    Sanders 12%

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-oklahoma-president-democrat-primary-election.html
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1235009213346254848?s=20
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Lets hope Joe can get to November better than he can get to the end of his sentences.

    He probably has a dangling participle at his age
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2020
    Texas less than 1% in

    Sanders 36%
    Bloomberg 23%
    Biden 15%

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-texas-president-democrat-primary-election.html
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Tulsi Gabbard gets 1 delegate from American Samoa. On a cost per delegate basis, I bravely predict she is doing better than Bloomberg.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AR polls closed
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    https://twitter.com/Mike2020/status/1235012209224318978?s=20
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Bloomberg addressing his supporters. Doesn't sound like he's giving up.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325
    Jonathan said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Jonathan said:

    77 is too old. Discuss.

    Um, Bernie Sanders is 78 and has recently had a heart attack. This is not a great set of options, but these are the options.
    Are we stunted as a generation that we need these paternalistic relics?
    Corbyn will be replaced soon, not to worry :)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Texas 5% in

    Sanders 27%
    Biden 25%
    Bloomberg 15%
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Tennessee 7% in

    Sanders 24.1%
    Biden 24%
    Bloomberg 23%

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-tennessee-president-democrat-primary-election.html
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Maine 2% in

    Biden 37.7%
    Sanders 32%

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-maine-president-democrat-primary-election.html
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    Tim_B said:

    Bloomberg addressing his supporters. Doesn't sound like he's giving up.

    Bad news for Biden, if so.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,609
    Warren getting trounced in MA, is this the end of the road for her?
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    A vegetable would be better than Trump or Sanders.

    Which is the candidate that is closest to a vegetable?

    Exactly. Lump your money on.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Warren getting trounced in MA, is this the end of the road for her?

    Pocahontas died at 21. Warren has outlived her nickname. What chance does she have?
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Chameleon said:

    A vegetable would be better than Trump or Sanders.

    Which is the candidate that is closest to a vegetable?

    Exactly. Lump your money on.

    Mini Mike - Mankai is the world's smallest vegetable
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited March 2020
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Warren getting trounced in MA, is this the end of the road for her?

    As long as she has some money she may as well stay til the convention now in the hope no one else gets to the magic number. Especially if Bloomberg is staying.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Arkansas less than 1%

    Biden 27%
    Sanders 21%
    Bloomberg 19%

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-arkansas-president-democrat-primary-election.html
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited March 2020
    Bloomberg may be on a late-life mission to do something more socially constructive with his cash, maybe also thinking , like Sanders, that promoting his view of things is as important as winning, and devil take the consequences for either Biden or Trump.

    Alternately, he genuinely thinks he has a better shot at beating Trump than BIden after Biden comes under more scrutiny, and Trump's personal attacks are now roiling and provoking him along to persevere with that at any cost- an ex-friendship can be incredibly potent.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2020
    Texas 20% in

    Sanders 29%
    Biden 22%
    Bloomberg 17%

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/texas?xid=ec_flip_hz_texas_d
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,691
    edited March 2020
    https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1235019805251559425
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,691
    Colorado too close to call. Was supposed to be an easy win for Sanders IIRC.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Andy_JS said:

    Colorado too close to call. Was supposed to be an easy win for Sanders IIRC.

    Pile on Biden.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    HYUFD said:

    Texas 20% in

    Sanders 29%
    Biden 22%
    Bloomberg 17%

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/texas?xid=ec_flip_hz_texas_d

    I think Sanders wins Texas fairly easily: lots of early voting and he scores highly with Hispanics
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,727
    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1235008509760212992?s=20
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Bloomberg may be on a late-life mission to do something more socially constructive with his cash, maybe also thinking , like Sanders, that promoting his view of things is as important as winning, and devil take the consequences for either Biden or Trump.

    Alternately, he genuinely thinks he has a better shot at beating Trump than BIden after Biden comes under more scrutiny, and Trump's personal attacks are now roiling and provoking him along to persevere with that at any cost- an ex-friendship can be incredibly potent.

    A third possibility is that he has a huge ego, absolutely no idea what the fuck he's doing and a bunch of cynical consultants telling him whatever they need to keep getting paid.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,609
    Squeaky bum time across America, lots of states too close to call, where Sanders was expecting a win.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited March 2020
    edmundintokyo said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Bloomberg may be on a late-life mission to do something more socially constructive with his cash, maybe also thinking , like Sanders, that promoting his view of things is as important as winning, and devil take the consequences for either Biden or Trump.

    Alternately, he genuinely thinks he has a better shot at beating Trump than BIden after Biden comes under more scrutiny, and Trump's personal attacks are now roiling and provoking him along to persevere with that at any cost- an ex-friendship can be incredibly potent.

    A third possibility is that he has a huge ego, absolutely no idea what the fuck he's doing and a bunch of cynical consultants telling him whatever they need to keep getting paid.
    That bubble aspect was clear from the first debate - but it doesn't explain his apparent determination in this particular race if he continues with it. He has a vast ego but he's used to training that to particular ends, which with an engneer's brain is how he became so rich.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edmundintokyo said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Bloomberg may be on a late-life mission to do something more socially constructive with his cash, maybe also thinking , like Sanders, that promoting his view of things is as important as winning, and devil take the consequences for either Biden or Trump.

    Alternately, he genuinely thinks he has a better shot at beating Trump than BIden after Biden comes under more scrutiny, and Trump's personal attacks are now roiling and provoking him along to persevere with that at any cost- an ex-friendship can be incredibly potent.

    A third possibility is that he has a huge ego, absolutely no idea what the fuck he's doing and a bunch of cynical consultants telling him whatever they need to keep getting paid.
    A villianaire with a huge ego surrounded by yes men? Well I never.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    https://twitter.com/politico/status/1235021039261732864?s=20
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Texas 20% in

    Sanders 29%
    Biden 22%
    Bloomberg 17%

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/texas?xid=ec_flip_hz_texas_d

    I think Sanders wins Texas fairly easily: lots of early voting and he scores highly with Hispanics
    If Sanders does win Texas and California tonight I think he will still be nominee, especially as Warren is now surely about to drop out having failed to even win her home state of Massachusetts
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Texas 20% in

    Sanders 29%
    Biden 22%
    Bloomberg 17%

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/texas?xid=ec_flip_hz_texas_d

    I think Sanders wins Texas fairly easily: lots of early voting and he scores highly with Hispanics
    If Sanders does win Texas and California tonight I think he will still be nominee, especially as Warren is now surely about to drop out having failed to even win her home state of Massachusetts
    If Warren drops out, but Bloomberg not, or vice versa, that's obviously now going to have major consequences.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Texas 20% in

    Sanders 29%
    Biden 22%
    Bloomberg 17%

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/texas?xid=ec_flip_hz_texas_d

    I think Sanders wins Texas fairly easily: lots of early voting and he scores highly with Hispanics
    If Sanders does win Texas and California tonight I think he will still be nominee, especially as Warren is now surely about to drop out having failed to even win her home state of Massachusetts
    It all depends on the size of the victories, and how many delegates Bloomberg gets.

  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Biden winning Mass would be a massive story.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2020
    Colorado less than 1% in

    Sanders 39%
    Biden 22%
    Bloomberg 23%


    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-colorado-president-democrat-primary-election.html
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Biden winning Maine, Minnesota, and Oklahoma. That's a very strong result.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2020
    Minnesota 2% in

    Biden 38%
    Sanders 29%
    Warren 17%
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-minnesota-president-democrat-primary-election.html
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Chameleon said:

    Biden winning Mass would be a massive story.

    Boston yet to report though and that will go strongly for Sanders
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1235024033709613057?s=20
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1235025099855544320?s=20
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1235024329357676549?s=20
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2020
    Chameleon said:

    Biden winning Maine, Minnesota, and Oklahoma. That's a very strong result.

    Sanders now narrowly ahead in Maine with 9% in

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-maine-president-democrat-primary-election.html
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Biden winning Maine, Minnesota, and Oklahoma. That's a very strong result.

    Sanders now narrowly ahead in Maine with 9% in

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-maine-president-democrat-primary-election.html
    We can downgrade Biden's night from impossibly strong to very strong.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited March 2020
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1235024033709613057?s=20

    Hmm - could be disappointing rather than disastrous for Sanders. Maine, Texas and California all important for him now for different reasons.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,609
    Apparently Bloomberg will be 'reassessing' his campaign tomorrow.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sanders appears to be well ahead in Colorado - leading Bloomberg by 60,000 votes.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited March 2020
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Apparently Bloomberg will be 'reassessing' his campaign tomorrow.

    If Warren doesn't as well, that could be more disastrous for Sanders than these results.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edited March 2020
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Apparently Bloomberg will be 'reassessing' his campaign tomorrow.

    His ego is too big. He's hitting 15%+ in enough areas (everywhere?) to have a lot of leverage in a contested convention. He'll drop out in a few Tuesdays time.
  • Options
    Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    justin124 said:

    Sanders appears to be well ahead in Colorado - leading Bloomberg by 60,000 votes.

    Colorado Dems are substantially young Californians priced out of California.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,609
    Chameleon said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Apparently Bloomberg will be 'reassessing' his campaign tomorrow.

    His ego is too big. He's hitting 15%+ in enough areas to have a lot of leverage in a contested convention. He'll drop out in a few Tuesdays time.
    A straight drop out after he's burned through half a billion bucks to carry American Samoa would be quite the legacy.

    I agree, he'll try and hang on as long as possible.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Sanders needs to be ahead by a lot in places like Maine and Mass.
  • Options
    Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Biden winning Mass would be a massive story.

    Boston yet to report though and that will go strongly for Sanders
    Really? Boston is lots of college grads, who lean moderate.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Gabs3 said:

    justin124 said:

    Sanders appears to be well ahead in Colorado - leading Bloomberg by 60,000 votes.

    Colorado Dems are substantially young Californians priced out of California.
    And it'a not an awful lot of delegates with 4 people above 15%.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,609
    Chameleon said:

    Sanders needs to be ahead by a lot in places like Maine and Mass.

    He does, and he isn't.

    He also carried places like Oklahoma by 10 points in 2016, and that's over.
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    What are thoughts on who Biden's Veep might be?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2020
    Chameleon said:

    Sanders needs to be ahead by a lot in places like Maine and Mass.

    He doesn't if he wins California and Texas too
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Nate Silver is a dick, but he's pretty good at his job.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sanders needs to be ahead by a lot in places like Maine and Mass.

    He does, and he isn't.

    He also carried places like Oklahoma by 10 points in 2016, and that's over.
    Yeah, lumping on Biden is free money at the moment.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Gabs3 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Biden winning Mass would be a massive story.

    Boston yet to report though and that will go strongly for Sanders
    Really? Boston is lots of college grads, who lean moderate.
    The students lean liberal
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,691
    Gabs3 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Biden winning Mass would be a massive story.

    Boston yet to report though and that will go strongly for Sanders
    Really? Boston is lots of college grads, who lean moderate.
    Boston is 7% in and Biden is narrowly ahead.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sanders needs to be ahead by a lot in places like Maine and Mass.

    He doesn't if he wins California and Texas too
    Sure, but what are the chances he wins them by big margins if he loses Maine and Mass?

    The worst sign for Sanders is how dependent he is on early votes in so many states. ST is a third of the delegates but it's only a third. If Biden keeps this level of support going forward then Sanders will have to change things or he'll just lose hard in later states. There's time to change the dynamic as the pace of states slows a bit, but he only has a few weeks to do it.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,691
    Henrietta2 said:

    @eadric

    The 3 March total for outside of China has just been published at Worldometers: 12739.

    My 3 models predicted 12220 (G), 12367 (L), and 14237 (S).
    So, as yesterday, L is the most accurate model and we are about a fifth of the way from L towards S. (0.22 yesterday; 0.20 today.)
    So I am still predicting the 1 millionth case outside of China will be reported closer to 25 March than to 16 March, and the 1 billionth for closer to 17 April than to 26 March.
    Happy Easter!

    Tomorrow's predictions are 14867 (G), 15131 (L), and 18697 (S).
    If once again we are ~0.20 of the way from L to S, we will get 15844.

    Thanks for the forecasts.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Unless Biden contracts coronavirus backing him is free money.
  • Options
    Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    HYUFD said:

    Gabs3 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Biden winning Mass would be a massive story.

    Boston yet to report though and that will go strongly for Sanders
    Really? Boston is lots of college grads, who lean moderate.
    The students lean liberal
    They are Ivy League types. They lean liberal, not leftist.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited March 2020
    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sanders needs to be ahead by a lot in places like Maine and Mass.

    He doesn't if he wins California and Texas too
    Sure, but what are the chances he wins them by big margins if he loses Maine and Mass?

    The worst sign for Sanders is how dependent he is on early votes in so many states. ST is a third of the delegates but it's only a third. If Biden keeps this level of support going forward then Sanders will have to change things or he'll just lose hard in later states. There's time to change the dynamic as the pace of states slows a bit, but he only has a few weeks to do it.
    He's done two important things - change down his style to the informality of his youth, and win over african-americans and latinos in the northern states, but he would urgently need to do a third to regain momentum over Biden now - he needs to reconnect his campaign to specific american traditions in populism and the new deal, which it does have, and talk about that, rather than keep allowing the republicans and other democrats to keep casting him as a foreign-inspired "socialist", and extremist.
  • Options
    Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    moonshine said:

    What are thoughts on who Biden's Veep might be?

    Stacy Abrams, Catherine Cortez Mastro, Kamala Harris. Maybe Elizabeth Warren in a contest convention.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2020
    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sanders needs to be ahead by a lot in places like Maine and Mass.

    He doesn't if he wins California and Texas too
    Sure, but what are the chances he wins them by big margins if he loses Maine and Mass?

    The worst sign for Sanders is how dependent he is on early votes in so many states. ST is a third of the delegates but it's only a third. If Biden keeps this level of support going forward then Sanders will have to change things or he'll just lose hard in later states. There's time to change the dynamic as the pace of states slows a bit, but he only has a few weeks to do it.
    Not really, the largest proportion of states up tonight were in the South where Biden does best and Sanders was also hindered by having Warren still in the field whilst Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropped out and endorse Biden.

    After tonight Warren will likely drop out and most of her vote goes to Sanders while Bloomberg stays in, if he wins California and Texas tonight, the 2 biggest states in the union and follows it up with wins in New York and Illinois and Michigan Sanders will still be hard to beat
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    AP calls Minnesota for Biden!
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Gabs3 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gabs3 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Biden winning Mass would be a massive story.

    Boston yet to report though and that will go strongly for Sanders
    Really? Boston is lots of college grads, who lean moderate.
    The students lean liberal
    They are Ivy League types. They lean liberal, not leftist.
    I presume that you haven't been to Oxbridge recently.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    Quincel said:

    AP calls Minnesota for Biden!

    KLOBUCHARGED
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    Chameleon said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Apparently Bloomberg will be 'reassessing' his campaign tomorrow.

    His ego is too big. He's hitting 15%+ in enough areas (everywhere?) to have a lot of leverage in a contested convention. He'll drop out in a few Tuesdays time.
    Does he have leverage though? What's he going to do if Biden won't give him what he wants, give the nomination to Bernie???
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sanders needs to be ahead by a lot in places like Maine and Mass.

    He doesn't if he wins California and Texas too
    Sure, but what are the chances he wins them by big margins if he loses Maine and Mass?

    The worst sign for Sanders is how dependent he is on early votes in so many states. ST is a third of the delegates but it's only a third. If Biden keeps this level of support going forward then Sanders will have to change things or he'll just lose hard in later states. There's time to change the dynamic as the pace of states slows a bit, but he only has a few weeks to do it.
    Not really, the largest proportion of states up tonight were in the South where Biden does best and Sanders was also hindered by having Warren still in the field whilst Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropped out and endorse Biden.

    After tonight Warren will likely drop out and most of her vote goes to Sanders while Bloomberg stays in, if he wins California and Texas tonight, the 2 biggest states in the union and follows it up with won a in New York and Illinois and Michigan he will still be hard to beat
    If Texas didn't have early voting then Biden would be winning it with a modest but clear margin. Biden may win Maine and Mass, he probably would if they didn't early vote. Sanders needs more states than he is currently on track to win, especially given his likely margins in Texas and California.

    Early voting will help him a lot in CA, but that is a trick he can't play much going forward.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Quincel said:

    AP calls Minnesota for Biden!

    Jesus. That implies almost compete Klob to Biden transfer.
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    There's a rumour that Hunter Biden has taken Ukraine... :wink:
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,727
    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1234999949928140801?s=20
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edmundintokyo said:

    Chameleon said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Apparently Bloomberg will be 'reassessing' his campaign tomorrow.

    His ego is too big. He's hitting 15%+ in enough areas (everywhere?) to have a lot of leverage in a contested convention. He'll drop out in a few Tuesdays time.
    Does he have leverage though? What's he going to do if Biden won't give him what he wants, give the nomination to Bernie???
    Holding no side into the convention is a credible position. He'll have 10-20% of delegates, which is enough to enact concessions.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Chameleon said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Chameleon said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Apparently Bloomberg will be 'reassessing' his campaign tomorrow.

    His ego is too big. He's hitting 15%+ in enough areas (everywhere?) to have a lot of leverage in a contested convention. He'll drop out in a few Tuesdays time.
    Does he have leverage though? What's he going to do if Biden won't give him what he wants, give the nomination to Bernie???
    Holding no side into the convention is a credible position. He'll have 10-20% of delegates, which is enough to enact concessions.
    I'm not convinced he would get to the convention with that many delegates. He'll barely be in that range today, and surely his voters will fade away in future primaries given these results?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2020
    Quincel said:

    Chameleon said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Chameleon said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Apparently Bloomberg will be 'reassessing' his campaign tomorrow.

    His ego is too big. He's hitting 15%+ in enough areas (everywhere?) to have a lot of leverage in a contested convention. He'll drop out in a few Tuesdays time.
    Does he have leverage though? What's he going to do if Biden won't give him what he wants, give the nomination to Bernie???
    Holding no side into the convention is a credible position. He'll have 10-20% of delegates, which is enough to enact concessions.
    I'm not convinced he would get to the convention with that many delegates. He'll barely be in that range today, and surely his voters will fade away in future primaries given these results?
    If it goes to a contested convention expect the bloodiest Democratic convention since 1968, especially if Sanders does not get it the left will then go berserk and the Democrats will enter a civil war
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edited March 2020
    Quincel said:

    Chameleon said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Chameleon said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Apparently Bloomberg will be 'reassessing' his campaign tomorrow.

    His ego is too big. He's hitting 15%+ in enough areas (everywhere?) to have a lot of leverage in a contested convention. He'll drop out in a few Tuesdays time.
    Does he have leverage though? What's he going to do if Biden won't give him what he wants, give the nomination to Bernie???
    Holding no side into the convention is a credible position. He'll have 10-20% of delegates, which is enough to enact concessions.
    I'm not convinced he would get to the convention with that many delegates. He'll barely be in that range today, and surely his voters will fade away in future primaries given these results?
    They should, but money buys all sorts of benefits. Between him and Warren I suspect that no-one will have a majority. At which point Sanders will sell everything to avoid getting the Super-delegates involved.

    If Sanders is near equal in terms of delegates I expect the Bernie Bros to gift Trump a second term.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited March 2020
    Chameleon said:

    Quincel said:

    Chameleon said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Chameleon said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Apparently Bloomberg will be 'reassessing' his campaign tomorrow.

    His ego is too big. He's hitting 15%+ in enough areas (everywhere?) to have a lot of leverage in a contested convention. He'll drop out in a few Tuesdays time.
    Does he have leverage though? What's he going to do if Biden won't give him what he wants, give the nomination to Bernie???
    Holding no side into the convention is a credible position. He'll have 10-20% of delegates, which is enough to enact concessions.
    I'm not convinced he would get to the convention with that many delegates. He'll barely be in that range today, and surely his voters will fade away in future primaries given these results?
    They should, but money buys all sorts of benefits. Between him and Warren I suspect that no-one will have a majority. At which point Sanders will sell everything to avoid getting the Super-delegates involved.

    If Sanders is near equal in terms of delegates I expect the Bernie Bros to gift Trump a second term.
    The way I see it, Trump is almost equally likely to win against either of them, just for different reasons, unless the fallout from the Coronavirus is massive.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    edmundintokyo said:

    Chameleon said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Apparently Bloomberg will be 'reassessing' his campaign tomorrow.

    His ego is too big. He's hitting 15%+ in enough areas (everywhere?) to have a lot of leverage in a contested convention. He'll drop out in a few Tuesdays time.
    Does he have leverage though? What's he going to do if Biden won't give him what he wants, give the nomination to Bernie???
    I think I know who the next Treasury Secretary is going to be...
  • Options
    Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Chameleon said:

    Gabs3 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gabs3 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Biden winning Mass would be a massive story.

    Boston yet to report though and that will go strongly for Sanders
    Really? Boston is lots of college grads, who lean moderate.
    The students lean liberal
    They are Ivy League types. They lean liberal, not leftist.
    I presume that you haven't been to Oxbridge recently.
    No, I just understand American politics is different to British politics.
  • Options
    Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    rcs1000 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Chameleon said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Apparently Bloomberg will be 'reassessing' his campaign tomorrow.

    His ego is too big. He's hitting 15%+ in enough areas (everywhere?) to have a lot of leverage in a contested convention. He'll drop out in a few Tuesdays time.
    Does he have leverage though? What's he going to do if Biden won't give him what he wants, give the nomination to Bernie???
    I think I know who the next Treasury Secretary is going to be...
    Elizabeth Warren?
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited March 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    Chameleon said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Chameleon said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Apparently Bloomberg will be 'reassessing' his campaign tomorrow.

    His ego is too big. He's hitting 15%+ in enough areas (everywhere?) to have a lot of leverage in a contested convention. He'll drop out in a few Tuesdays time.
    Does he have leverage though? What's he going to do if Biden won't give him what he wants, give the nomination to Bernie???
    Holding no side into the convention is a credible position. He'll have 10-20% of delegates, which is enough to enact concessions.
    I'm not convinced he would get to the convention with that many delegates. He'll barely be in that range today, and surely his voters will fade away in future primaries given these results?
    If it goes to a contested convention expect the bloodiest Democratic convention since 1968, especially if Sanders does not get it the left will then go berserk and the Democrats will enter a civil war
    Yup. None of the potential scenarios look particularly good for the Democrats, unless an unpleasant disease comes to their rescue, which also, in itself, isn't a great scenario for them to have to wish for.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1235038391600689152?s=20
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    Chameleon said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Chameleon said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Apparently Bloomberg will be 'reassessing' his campaign tomorrow.

    His ego is too big. He's hitting 15%+ in enough areas (everywhere?) to have a lot of leverage in a contested convention. He'll drop out in a few Tuesdays time.
    Does he have leverage though? What's he going to do if Biden won't give him what he wants, give the nomination to Bernie???
    Holding no side into the convention is a credible position. He'll have 10-20% of delegates, which is enough to enact concessions.
    I'm not convinced he would get to the convention with that many delegates. He'll barely be in that range today, and surely his voters will fade away in future primaries given these results?
    If it goes to a contested convention expect the bloodiest Democratic convention since 1968, especially if Sanders does not get it the left will then go berserk and the Democrats will enter a civil war
    That depends how it's contested. There's a fraction of the left that's going to go berserk no matter what happens but if Bernie has fewer delegates than Biden, it won't matter that much if Biden is a little bit short of 50%.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Now this would be huge.

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1235039741717786627
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edmundintokyo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    Chameleon said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Chameleon said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Apparently Bloomberg will be 'reassessing' his campaign tomorrow.

    His ego is too big. He's hitting 15%+ in enough areas (everywhere?) to have a lot of leverage in a contested convention. He'll drop out in a few Tuesdays time.
    Does he have leverage though? What's he going to do if Biden won't give him what he wants, give the nomination to Bernie???
    Holding no side into the convention is a credible position. He'll have 10-20% of delegates, which is enough to enact concessions.
    I'm not convinced he would get to the convention with that many delegates. He'll barely be in that range today, and surely his voters will fade away in future primaries given these results?
    If it goes to a contested convention expect the bloodiest Democratic convention since 1968, especially if Sanders does not get it the left will then go berserk and the Democrats will enter a civil war
    That depends how it's contested. There's a fraction of the left that's going to go berserk no matter what happens but if Bernie has fewer delegates than Biden, it won't matter that much if Biden is a little bit short of 50%.
    It will because the left will protest across the convention and it will be chaos
This discussion has been closed.