politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Journal Of The Plague Year. The politics of Covid-19
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Which would have happened amongst the low skilled anyway whether there was immigration or not. The main driver of stagnating wages for the lowest paid has been the minimum wage which has set a baseline on wages which has been adopted as the norm by many companies. Meanwhile the issues with the economy post 2008 have meant few companies are in a position to give large scale pay rises. The flip side of this of course is relatively low inflation. But all of this would be happening whether we had large scale migration or not.isam said:
I’d say the facts are that more people are working part time, are ‘self employed’ on ZHC and have seen wages stagnate.Richard_Tyndall said:
Got to say I don't get this argument.isam said:
Or if we were having a total and complete open door to cheap Eastern European labour, the people in the country who pay the mortgage and feed the kids by selling their labour would have every right to feel a little threatened.kinabalu said:
But the point technically stands. If, for example, we were to have a total and complete shutdown of Muslims coming into the UK - because, sorry folks, we have no choice, no choice - then even though Muslims already here would not be facing deportation they would have every right to feel a little threatened.HYUFD said:They are not being deported, whether they disagree with the policy is irrelevant
We have had a complete open door to cheap Eastern European labour for the last 20 or more years. And yet we have some of the lowest rates of unemployment in modern history.
The idea that lots of foreigners are stopping good old Brits getting plum jobs - or even shitty jobs - just doesn't seem to be borne out by the facts.0 -
Slight change in the Trump approval rating with registered voters. Now 45.9%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/0 -
I think you're wrong but right, if you see what I mean.isam said:Not all leavers are the same. Richard hates the EU in the way that many Tories have for years, and have intellectual arguments that the public don’t really care about. I don’t hate the EU and, like most of the leave vote, just didn’t like open door immigration & it’s effect on the British low wage group. The latter was the reason we had a referendum and why leave won, the former was an argument for academics to pass the time with.
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I don;t know but I suspect the answer to your question is 'signficant' and 'yes' in that order.kinabalu said:
Interesting point. We would need to know how many people who speak little English settle here under current arrangements and whether the new system is likely to lead to a significant cut in that number.contrarian said:Don't the immigration proposals in actual fact aim to do that by another name (ie stipulate speaking english, job offer?)
Its a a de facto total ban on women from certain rural areas of the Indian subcontinent for example, isn;t it?
This is especially true as I don't think getting married means you will be accepted here.
There was a court case this infringed human rights but I think it was thrown out.0 -
I doubt it.HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1230107812589703176?s=20Richard_Tyndall said:
And yet there are lots of current vacancies for low skilled jobs at the moment and people don't seem to be wanting to take them....HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1230068222189326336?s=20Nigel_Foremain said:
So fucking naïve. No wonder the Conservatives are no longer the party of business. Most of them just do not understand how the real world works.HYUFD said:0 -
Well I disagreeRichard_Tyndall said:
Which would have happened amongst the low skilled anyway whether there was immigration or not. The main driver of stagnating wages for the lowest paid has been the minimum wage which has set a baseline on wages which has been adopted as the norm by many companies. Meanwhile the issues with the economy post 2008 have meant few companies are in a position to give large scale pay rises. The flip side of this of course is relatively low inflation. But all of this would be happening whether we had large scale migration or not.isam said:
I’d say the facts are that more people are working part time, are ‘self employed’ on ZHC and have seen wages stagnate.Richard_Tyndall said:
Got to say I don't get this argument.isam said:
Or if we were having a total and complete open door to cheap Eastern European labour, the people in the country who pay the mortgage and feed the kids by selling their labour would have every right to feel a little threatened.kinabalu said:
But the point technically stands. If, for example, we were to have a total and complete shutdown of Muslims coming into the UK - because, sorry folks, we have no choice, no choice - then even though Muslims already here would not be facing deportation they would have every right to feel a little threatened.HYUFD said:They are not being deported, whether they disagree with the policy is irrelevant
We have had a complete open door to cheap Eastern European labour for the last 20 or more years. And yet we have some of the lowest rates of unemployment in modern history.
The idea that lots of foreigners are stopping good old Brits getting plum jobs - or even shitty jobs - just doesn't seem to be borne out by the facts.
Anyway, what I have been harping on about for 8 years, an end to FOM, protectionism for low wage British workers, has happened. Quite amazing. I hope it makes for a better and more equal country.
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Has been creeping up for a while. Suspect impeachment had the opposite effect than intended.Andy_JS said:Slight change in the Trump approval rating with registered voters. Now 45.9%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/0 -
There are 1453 such people in Parliament. Can we start with them?HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1230107812589703176?s=20Richard_Tyndall said:
And yet there are lots of current vacancies for low skilled jobs at the moment and people don't seem to be wanting to take them....HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1230068222189326336?s=20Nigel_Foremain said:
So fucking naïve. No wonder the Conservatives are no longer the party of business. Most of them just do not understand how the real world works.HYUFD said:1 -
It looks to be just a hair under Obama and Bush II at a similar point in the presidency, add in the (Widening I reckon) California effect and whilst his approval isn't great it's not necessary for it to go much higher and is sufficiently high currently for him to win a second term.Andy_JS said:Slight change in the Trump approval rating with registered voters. Now 45.9%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/0 -
Given that official unemployment is around 1.3 million I am afraid that is just garbage.HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1230107812589703176?s=20Richard_Tyndall said:
And yet there are lots of current vacancies for low skilled jobs at the moment and people don't seem to be wanting to take them....HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1230068222189326336?s=20Nigel_Foremain said:
So fucking naïve. No wonder the Conservatives are no longer the party of business. Most of them just do not understand how the real world works.HYUFD said:
"Economically inactive" includes anyone over the age of 16 in full time education, housewives (or house husbands), those off sick long term and anyone who has retired before the age of 64.
Are you suggesting we should start forcing people to work when they don't want to and have no reason to do so? Maybe Patel is suggesting we should go back to year zero and empty the schools and universities to make everyone work on the land again?1 -
Its a radical suggestion but perhaps something other than subsidence wages might tempt a few of them.Richard_Tyndall said:
Given that official unemployment is around 1.3 million I am afraid that is just garbage.HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1230107812589703176?s=20Richard_Tyndall said:
And yet there are lots of current vacancies for low skilled jobs at the moment and people don't seem to be wanting to take them....HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1230068222189326336?s=20Nigel_Foremain said:
So fucking naïve. No wonder the Conservatives are no longer the party of business. Most of them just do not understand how the real world works.HYUFD said:
"Economically inactive" includes anyone over the age of 16 in full time education, housewives (or house husbands), those off sick long term and anyone who has retired before the age of 64.
Are you suggesting we should start forcing people to work when they don't want to and have no reason to do so? Maybe Patel is suggesting we should go back to year zero and empty the schools and universities to make everyone work on the land again?0 -
Lets face it, even Ted Cruz is preferable to Trump.Nigelb said:
Sentiments I share.kinabalu said:
If he gets the nomination I will obviously become his most fervent supporter between then and November, but I must admit it feels all wrong to me.Nigelb said:The case for Bloomberg (it's very well argued, even if I don't agree with it):
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/18/21135149/mike-bloomberg-democrat-polls-debate-new-york-mayor-record
It's not entirely his fault that he can spend so much money on his campaign - US campaign finance laws are nuts - but it is democratically troubling.
He is preferable to Trump in most respects, though, and even the most left liberal ought to prefer him, if only for his stance on climate change.0 -
Universal credit will ensure if you want to claim any form of state benefit and are under 65 you will have to actively seek work and accept job offers with sanctions if you fail to comply and checks will be made to ensure you genuinely are sick and even if you are sick checks will be made to see if there is work you can do.Richard_Tyndall said:
Given that official unemployment is around 1.3 million I am afraid that is just garbage.HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1230107812589703176?s=20Richard_Tyndall said:
And yet there are lots of current vacancies for low skilled jobs at the moment and people don't seem to be wanting to take them....HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1230068222189326336?s=20Nigel_Foremain said:
So fucking naïve. No wonder the Conservatives are no longer the party of business. Most of them just do not understand how the real world works.HYUFD said:
"Economically inactive" includes anyone over the age of 16 in full time education, housewives (or house husbands), those off sick long term and anyone who has retired before the age of 64.
Are you suggesting we should start forcing people to work when they don't want to and have no reason to do so? Maybe Patel is suggesting we should go back to year zero and empty the schools and universities to make everyone work on the land again?0 -
The minimum wage has gone upcontrarian said:
Its a radical suggestion but perhaps something other than subsidence wages might tempt a few of them.Richard_Tyndall said:
Given that official unemployment is around 1.3 million I am afraid that is just garbage.HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1230107812589703176?s=20Richard_Tyndall said:
And yet there are lots of current vacancies for low skilled jobs at the moment and people don't seem to be wanting to take them....HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1230068222189326336?s=20Nigel_Foremain said:
So fucking naïve. No wonder the Conservatives are no longer the party of business. Most of them just do not understand how the real world works.HYUFD said:
"Economically inactive" includes anyone over the age of 16 in full time education, housewives (or house husbands), those off sick long term and anyone who has retired before the age of 64.
Are you suggesting we should start forcing people to work when they don't want to and have no reason to do so? Maybe Patel is suggesting we should go back to year zero and empty the schools and universities to make everyone work on the land again?0 -
Sorry HYUFD. I have just listened to IDS spout the most enormous rubbish about immigration on The World at One.. For a quiet man he has a lot to say. On this your government is blinded by prejudice.HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1230068222189326336?s=20Nigel_Foremain said:
So fucking naïve. No wonder the Conservatives are no longer the party of business. Most of them just do not understand how the real world works.HYUFD said:0 -
He isn't correct though...The government have said, if you do a degree in the UK, you have remain to stay for 2 years no questions asked to find a job and if you do that great. If can't find a graduate level job that pays £25k a year after 2 years, I think you have to question what you did at uni.AlastairMeeks said:
Oh come on - he has a big blue tick. I was hardly hiding that. He is expressing his views as a Polish national, see here:isam said:
Of course. It just seemed a waste of time for you to quote him as if he wasn’t a Guardian journalist, which is probably more relevant than him being an EU immigrantAlastairMeeks said:
Contrary to popular belief, journalists are people too. He doesn't hide that he's a journalist and he is clear (from other tweets) that for him this is very personal.isam said:
"current UK residents who were EU migrants".. who are also Guardian journalists!AlastairMeeks said:There was some inexplicable resistance to my suggestion last night that current UK residents who were EU migrants might find the tone of yesterday's immigration announcement unwelcoming:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230100754003828737
Always inspect the source
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230073158977359873
His views are, I expect, completely mainstream among EU residents in the UK right now. The government has told them what it thinks of them and they've heard the message.3 -
F1: fair comment on similar designs:
https://twitter.com/LauraLeslieF1/status/12301140949104476160 -
First they came for migrants and now the so called economically inactive ! Hopefully Leavers in that group will be happy to get out into the fields and also go into social care. That’s the least they can do really seeing as they were so desperate to avoid those horrible EU nationals who came to the UK to do jobs so many Brits felt were beneath them !1
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A Guardian journalist spreading incorrect information? Whatever next.FrancisUrquhart said:
He isn't correct though...if you do a degree in the UK, you have upto 2 years to find a job and if you can't find a graduate level job on £25k a year, I think you have to question what you did at uni.AlastairMeeks said:
Oh come on - he has a big blue tick. I was hardly hiding that. He is expressing his views as a Polish national, see here:isam said:
Of course. It just seemed a waste of time for you to quote him as if he wasn’t a Guardian journalist, which is probably more relevant than him being an EU immigrantAlastairMeeks said:
Contrary to popular belief, journalists are people too. He doesn't hide that he's a journalist and he is clear (from other tweets) that for him this is very personal.isam said:
"current UK residents who were EU migrants".. who are also Guardian journalists!AlastairMeeks said:There was some inexplicable resistance to my suggestion last night that current UK residents who were EU migrants might find the tone of yesterday's immigration announcement unwelcoming:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230100754003828737
Always inspect the source
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230073158977359873
His views are, I expect, completely mainstream among EU residents in the UK right now. The government has told them what it thinks of them and they've heard the message.1 -
+1 - 70 points on that system really isn't that hard to hit.FrancisUrquhart said:
He isn't correct though...The government have said, if you do a degree in the UK, you have remain to stay for 2 years no questions asked to find a job and if you do that great. If can't find a graduate level job on £25k a year, I think you have to question what you did at uni.AlastairMeeks said:
Oh come on - he has a big blue tick. I was hardly hiding that. He is expressing his views as a Polish national, see here:isam said:
Of course. It just seemed a waste of time for you to quote him as if he wasn’t a Guardian journalist, which is probably more relevant than him being an EU immigrantAlastairMeeks said:
Contrary to popular belief, journalists are people too. He doesn't hide that he's a journalist and he is clear (from other tweets) that for him this is very personal.isam said:
"current UK residents who were EU migrants".. who are also Guardian journalists!AlastairMeeks said:There was some inexplicable resistance to my suggestion last night that current UK residents who were EU migrants might find the tone of yesterday's immigration announcement unwelcoming:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230100754003828737
Always inspect the source
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230073158977359873
His views are, I expect, completely mainstream among EU residents in the UK right now. The government has told them what it thinks of them and they've heard the message.
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It took me two and a half years.FrancisUrquhart said:
He isn't correct though...The government have said, if you do a degree in the UK, you have remain to stay for 2 years no questions asked to find a job and if you do that great. If can't find a graduate level job that pays £25k a year after 2 years, I think you have to question what you did at uni.AlastairMeeks said:
Oh come on - he has a big blue tick. I was hardly hiding that. He is expressing his views as a Polish national, see here:isam said:
Of course. It just seemed a waste of time for you to quote him as if he wasn’t a Guardian journalist, which is probably more relevant than him being an EU immigrantAlastairMeeks said:
Contrary to popular belief, journalists are people too. He doesn't hide that he's a journalist and he is clear (from other tweets) that for him this is very personal.isam said:
"current UK residents who were EU migrants".. who are also Guardian journalists!AlastairMeeks said:There was some inexplicable resistance to my suggestion last night that current UK residents who were EU migrants might find the tone of yesterday's immigration announcement unwelcoming:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230100754003828737
Always inspect the source
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230073158977359873
His views are, I expect, completely mainstream among EU residents in the UK right now. The government has told them what it thinks of them and they've heard the message.
Just thought I’d mention that...0 -
Its classic Guardian, bias by omission. Like the guy who they reported got deported for doing a spot of speeding (or so the Guardian would have you believe), by a spot of speeding what they meant was uninsured, unqualified driver takes car without consent and then took the plod on a car chase at over 100mph causing total mayhem.RobD said:
A Guardian journalist spreading incorrect information? Whatever next.FrancisUrquhart said:
He isn't correct though...if you do a degree in the UK, you have upto 2 years to find a job and if you can't find a graduate level job on £25k a year, I think you have to question what you did at uni.AlastairMeeks said:
Oh come on - he has a big blue tick. I was hardly hiding that. He is expressing his views as a Polish national, see here:isam said:
Of course. It just seemed a waste of time for you to quote him as if he wasn’t a Guardian journalist, which is probably more relevant than him being an EU immigrantAlastairMeeks said:
Contrary to popular belief, journalists are people too. He doesn't hide that he's a journalist and he is clear (from other tweets) that for him this is very personal.isam said:
"current UK residents who were EU migrants".. who are also Guardian journalists!AlastairMeeks said:There was some inexplicable resistance to my suggestion last night that current UK residents who were EU migrants might find the tone of yesterday's immigration announcement unwelcoming:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230100754003828737
Always inspect the source
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230073158977359873
His views are, I expect, completely mainstream among EU residents in the UK right now. The government has told them what it thinks of them and they've heard the message.2 -
That might be true for history, philosophy and pure mathematics, but not for chemistry, microbiology, engineering, computer science, astronomy and mathematics (excepting pure). PhDs are considered so important to the chemical industry, the big companies effectively subsidise the postgraduate programmes in many universities.Nigel_Foremain said:
Interesting idea, a PhD relevant to a job? I am not really sure there is such a thing other than being a lecturer in a uni lolAlastairMeeks said:
Oh come on - he has a big blue tick. I was hardly hiding that. He is expressing his views as a Polish national, see here:isam said:
Of course. It just seemed a waste of time for you to quote him as if he wasn’t a Guardian journalist, which is probably more relevant than him being an EU immigrantAlastairMeeks said:
Contrary to popular belief, journalists are people too. He doesn't hide that he's a journalist and he is clear (from other tweets) that for him this is very personal.isam said:
"current UK residents who were EU migrants".. who are also Guardian journalists!AlastairMeeks said:There was some inexplicable resistance to my suggestion last night that current UK residents who were EU migrants might find the tone of yesterday's immigration announcement unwelcoming:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230100754003828737
Always inspect the source
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230073158977359873
His views are, I expect, completely mainstream among EU residents in the UK right now. The government has told them what it thinks of them and they've heard the message.0 -
I'm talking about EU nationals in the EU, not in the UK. There's a feeling, no doubt exaggerated but that's how things are being portrayed here, that the UK is now a hostile environment for European immigrants.RobD said:
So why did so many of them apply for the settled status rather than leave?Nigel_Foremain said:
I have spoken to many top professionals who have said the same. They can chose anywhere, so why would they chose to work somewhere where 52% of the population has told them to fuck off?kamski said:
Wow, so you can't feel unwelcome unless you're actually being deported!?HYUFD said:
They are not unwelcome otherwise they would be deported.AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230107290063249408HYUFD said:
They are not being deported, whether they disagree with the policy is irrelevantAlastairMeeks said:There was some inexplicable resistance to my suggestion last night that current UK residents who were EU migrants might find the tone of yesterday's immigration announcement unwelcoming:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230100754003828737
I suppose you're entirely happy making fellow residents feel unwelcome.
We are just in future having an immigration system more focused on those whose skills we need
I personally know EU doctors and nurses who are no longer considering working in the UK precisely because they feel unwelcome.
But to answer your question: presumably because they live in the UK?0 -
I reckon I must have a hell of a lot more Zoroastrian ancestry than you have.eadric said:Incidentally can I have an apology from everyone on PB who accused me of being a blousy, fearmongery wet-the-bed when I started blatting on about coronavirus maybe a week ago?
Yes, of course I am a feamongering halfwit much of the time, but every so often I detect, early on, a genuine movement in the waters of the world. I believe the gift is related to my Zoroastrian ancestry.0 -
It really isn't that strict at all by standards of many countries. Now I understand the care issue, but in general the rules seem perfectly fair and really not that hard to get over the barrier.eadric said:
The government is also talking about a "youth mobility scheme", which may well mean young EU nationals get a shot at working here.FrancisUrquhart said:
He isn't correct though...if you do a degree in the UK, you have upto 2 years to find a job and if you can't find a graduate level job on £25k a year, I think you have to question what you did at uni.AlastairMeeks said:
Oh come on - he has a big blue tick. I was hardly hiding that. He is expressing his views as a Polish national, see here:isam said:
Of course. It just seemed a waste of time for you to quote him as if he wasn’t a Guardian journalist, which is probably more relevant than him being an EU immigrantAlastairMeeks said:
Contrary to popular belief, journalists are people too. He doesn't hide that he's a journalist and he is clear (from other tweets) that for him this is very personal.isam said:
"current UK residents who were EU migrants".. who are also Guardian journalists!AlastairMeeks said:There was some inexplicable resistance to my suggestion last night that current UK residents who were EU migrants might find the tone of yesterday's immigration announcement unwelcoming:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230100754003828737
Always inspect the source
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230073158977359873
His views are, I expect, completely mainstream among EU residents in the UK right now. The government has told them what it thinks of them and they've heard the message.
As xenophobic, hate-filled, foaming, anti-foreigner migration policies go, this one seems at the milder end of the spectrum.
They down graded the amount you needed to earn and the base qualification. Originally they were talking about a lot more as a base salary and minimum a degree, which in most countries is the absolute bare minimum unless you have a very specialist skill e.g. Canada and experience in oil.0 -
I'm sorry, I thought the discussion was about existing residents feeling unwelcome. Naively I would have thought leaving would be a consequence of that, not staying.kamski said:
I'm talking about EU nationals in the EU, not in the UK. There's a feeling, no doubt exaggerated but that's how things are being portrayed here, that the UK is now a hostile environment for European immigrants.RobD said:
So why did so many of them apply for the settled status rather than leave?Nigel_Foremain said:
I have spoken to many top professionals who have said the same. They can chose anywhere, so why would they chose to work somewhere where 52% of the population has told them to fuck off?kamski said:
Wow, so you can't feel unwelcome unless you're actually being deported!?HYUFD said:
They are not unwelcome otherwise they would be deported.AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230107290063249408HYUFD said:
They are not being deported, whether they disagree with the policy is irrelevantAlastairMeeks said:There was some inexplicable resistance to my suggestion last night that current UK residents who were EU migrants might find the tone of yesterday's immigration announcement unwelcoming:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230100754003828737
I suppose you're entirely happy making fellow residents feel unwelcome.
We are just in future having an immigration system more focused on those whose skills we need
I personally know EU doctors and nurses who are no longer considering working in the UK precisely because they feel unwelcome.
But to answer your question: presumably because they live in the UK?0 -
Judging by the apostrophe misuse on top of the misguided substitution of its for their, a substandard rather than fair comment....Morris_Dancer said:F1: fair comment on similar designs:
https://twitter.com/LauraLeslieF1/status/1230114094910447616
And last year’s Merc looks shocking in pink.0 -
Perhaps Dominic Cummings should investigate this as a possible common link between superforecasters?Richard_Nabavi said:
I reckon I must have a hell of a lot more Zoroastrian ancestry than you have.eadric said:Incidentally can I have an apology from everyone on PB who accused me of being a blousy, fearmongery wet-the-bed when I started blatting on about coronavirus maybe a week ago?
Yes, of course I am a feamongering halfwit much of the time, but every so often I detect, early on, a genuine movement in the waters of the world. I believe the gift is related to my Zoroastrian ancestry.0 -
Nonsense. For example, if you want a job in AI / ML with big tech, having a PhD in comp sci or maths is essential e.g. Deep Mind current vacanciesNigel_Foremain said:
Interesting idea, a PhD relevant to a job? I am not really sure there is such a thing other than being a lecturer in a uni lolAlastairMeeks said:
Oh come on - he has a big blue tick. I was hardly hiding that. He is expressing his views as a Polish national, see here:isam said:
Of course. It just seemed a waste of time for you to quote him as if he wasn’t a Guardian journalist, which is probably more relevant than him being an EU immigrantAlastairMeeks said:
Contrary to popular belief, journalists are people too. He doesn't hide that he's a journalist and he is clear (from other tweets) that for him this is very personal.isam said:
"current UK residents who were EU migrants".. who are also Guardian journalists!AlastairMeeks said:There was some inexplicable resistance to my suggestion last night that current UK residents who were EU migrants might find the tone of yesterday's immigration announcement unwelcoming:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230100754003828737
Always inspect the source
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230073158977359873
His views are, I expect, completely mainstream among EU residents in the UK right now. The government has told them what it thinks of them and they've heard the message.
https://deepmind.com/careers/jobs?teams=Research
PhD minimum requirement for all of them and it won't be in History of Art.0 -
Zoroastrianism is a faith, not an ethnic group. And you are a blousy fearmongery wet the bed.eadric said:Incidentally can I have an apology from everyone on PB who accused me of being a blousy, fearmongery wet-the-bed when I started blatting on about coronavirus maybe a week ago?
Yes, of course I am a feamongering halfwit much of the time, but every so often I detect, early on, a genuine movement in the waters of the world. I believe the gift is related to my Zoroastrian ancestry.2 -
Day two of Leavers shouting at EU migrants and telling them how they should feel.0
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Ignoring the point.HYUFD said:
Universal credit will ensure if you want to claim any form of state benefit and are under 65 you will have to actively seek work and accept job offers with sanctions if you fail to comply and checks will be made to ensure you genuinely are sick and even if you are sick checks will be made to see if there is work you can do.Richard_Tyndall said:
Given that official unemployment is around 1.3 million I am afraid that is just garbage.HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1230107812589703176?s=20Richard_Tyndall said:
And yet there are lots of current vacancies for low skilled jobs at the moment and people don't seem to be wanting to take them....HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1230068222189326336?s=20Nigel_Foremain said:
So fucking naïve. No wonder the Conservatives are no longer the party of business. Most of them just do not understand how the real world works.HYUFD said:
"Economically inactive" includes anyone over the age of 16 in full time education, housewives (or house husbands), those off sick long term and anyone who has retired before the age of 64.
Are you suggesting we should start forcing people to work when they don't want to and have no reason to do so? Maybe Patel is suggesting we should go back to year zero and empty the schools and universities to make everyone work on the land again?
As I said, according to the ONS, that 8 million 'economically inactive' includes 2.3 million students, 2.1 million long term sick, 2 million housewives and 1.1 million people who retired before the age of 64.
So the idea there is this vast pool of readily available labour to go out and fill these jobs is utter bullshit.0 -
I sense this too. I think looking back at not laying Bloomberg at current prices will be the sort of thing to keep me awake at nights. Having said that, I'm not laying him at current prices. I don't trust my instincts on US politics as much as here in the UK.Pulpstar said:I think Trump is absolubtely telling the truth* when he says he'd prefer to run against Bloomberg. I've watched their rallies, Trump is a far more engaging speaker and superior debater. His Daytona PR stunt & speech (And College football Nat Champs) shows he knows what makes middle America tick still.
The case for Bloomberg seems to be entirely based on people believing that other people would vote for Bloomberg, it looks built on sand and would not stand up in a general I think.
* Loads assume he's lieing of course because he tells so many porkies !0 -
Why? Will paying more than subsidence wages induce students to give up college? Or make the sick miraculously walk again? Or encourage someone who has already retired to go back to work?contrarian said:
Its a radical suggestion but perhaps something other than subsidence wages might tempt a few of them.Richard_Tyndall said:
Given that official unemployment is around 1.3 million I am afraid that is just garbage.HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1230107812589703176?s=20Richard_Tyndall said:
And yet there are lots of current vacancies for low skilled jobs at the moment and people don't seem to be wanting to take them....HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1230068222189326336?s=20Nigel_Foremain said:
So fucking naïve. No wonder the Conservatives are no longer the party of business. Most of them just do not understand how the real world works.HYUFD said:
"Economically inactive" includes anyone over the age of 16 in full time education, housewives (or house husbands), those off sick long term and anyone who has retired before the age of 64.
Are you suggesting we should start forcing people to work when they don't want to and have no reason to do so? Maybe Patel is suggesting we should go back to year zero and empty the schools and universities to make everyone work on the land again?
It is just rubbish.0 -
The threshold is changed to half the leader %.edmundintokyo said:OT if Warren gets 2% less than this and Sanders gets 3% less so nobody clears the 15% hurdle, what happens to the delegates???
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1229961052999254016
Meanwhile Biden's firewall crashes.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/12301283836375654441 -
One obvious impact in the Far East is on tourism. Flight from Singapore to Melbourne packed, flight from Melbourne to Singapore less than half full. Singapore tourism down by 20,000 visitors a day. Other destinations which had large mainland Chinese tourists (in Bali they overtook Australians last year) similarly affected - which of course could mean great deals for those willing to travel. Could tip some EU countries which have large Chinese visitor numbers (France, Italy) into recession.0
-
Mr. B, easy (if irksome) mistake to make, though.0
-
On the Nevada caucus:
[Chair of the Democratic National Committee Tom Perez] also hinted that there could be a higher than usual turn-out in Nevada, enabled partly by the change in the rules to allow early voting.
Describing the math of the early voting phase as “remarkable”, Perez said “In the first three days there were 36,000 early voters. We had 84,000 total participants in 2016. And that 36,000 doesn’t include yesterday, which I think may have been the biggest day of them all”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/feb/19/mike-bloomberg-debut-las-vegas-debate-democrats-2020-trump-live
Note also that early voting in the 'super-Tuesday' Texas primary started yesterday.0 -
The government are going to bottle Heathrow expansion aren't they....tw@ts.
https://order-order.com/2020/02/19/government-drops-heathrow-expansion-ministerial-priority/0 -
Wouldn't surprise me if they did.FrancisUrquhart said:The government are going to bottle Heathrow expansion aren't they....tw@ts.
https://order-order.com/2020/02/19/government-drops-heathrow-expansion-ministerial-priority/0 -
To put into perspective, when I have looked into moving to Canada through the Federal programme, if I didn't have a PhD, I would be very touch and go if had to rely on my MSc alone. A degree alone wouldn't have.eadric said:
Britain is proposing one of the most liberal immigration regimes in the developed world, as far as I can tell.FrancisUrquhart said:
It really isn't that strict at all by standards of many countries. Now I understand the care issue, but in general the rules seem perfectly fair and really not that hard to get over the barrier.eadric said:
The government is also talking about a "youth mobility scheme", which may well mean young EU nationals get a shot at working here.FrancisUrquhart said:
He isn't correct though...if you do a degree in the UK, you have upto 2 years to find a job and if you can't find a graduate level job on £25k a year, I think you have to question what you did at uni.AlastairMeeks said:
Oh come on - he has a big blue tick. I was hardly hiding that. He is expressing his views as a Polish national, see here:isam said:
Of course. It just seemed a waste of time for you to quote him as if he wasn’t a Guardian journalist, which is probably more relevant than him being an EU immigrantAlastairMeeks said:
Contrary to popular belief, journalists are people too. He doesn't hide that he's a journalist and he is clear (from other tweets) that for him this is very personal.isam said:
"current UK residents who were EU migrants".. who are also Guardian journalists!AlastairMeeks said:There was some inexplicable resistance to my suggestion last night that current UK residents who were EU migrants might find the tone of yesterday's immigration announcement unwelcoming:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230100754003828737
Always inspect the source
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230073158977359873
His views are, I expect, completely mainstream among EU residents in the UK right now. The government has told them what it thinks of them and they've heard the message.
As xenophobic, hate-filled, foaming, anti-foreigner migration policies go, this one seems at the milder end of the spectrum.
They down graded the amount you needed to earn and the base qualification. Originally they were talking about a lot more as a base salary and minimum a degree, which in most countries is the absolute bare minimum unless you have a very specialist skill e.g. Canada and experience in oil.
And here for the UK, we are talking about you need some A-Levels (or equivalent).1 -
As I don't live in the UK, I don't really have much direct experience of how EU nationals in the UK are feeling, so I am only reporting what the feeling is here.RobD said:
I'm sorry, I thought the discussion was about existing residents feeling unwelcome. Naively I would have thought leaving would be a consequence of that, not staying.kamski said:
I'm talking about EU nationals in the EU, not in the UK. There's a feeling, no doubt exaggerated but that's how things are being portrayed here, that the UK is now a hostile environment for European immigrants.RobD said:
So why did so many of them apply for the settled status rather than leave?Nigel_Foremain said:
I have spoken to many top professionals who have said the same. They can chose anywhere, so why would they chose to work somewhere where 52% of the population has told them to fuck off?kamski said:
Wow, so you can't feel unwelcome unless you're actually being deported!?HYUFD said:
They are not unwelcome otherwise they would be deported.AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230107290063249408HYUFD said:
They are not being deported, whether they disagree with the policy is irrelevantAlastairMeeks said:There was some inexplicable resistance to my suggestion last night that current UK residents who were EU migrants might find the tone of yesterday's immigration announcement unwelcoming:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230100754003828737
I suppose you're entirely happy making fellow residents feel unwelcome.
We are just in future having an immigration system more focused on those whose skills we need
I personally know EU doctors and nurses who are no longer considering working in the UK precisely because they feel unwelcome.
But to answer your question: presumably because they live in the UK?
But of course, lots of people don't abandon their homes, their jobs and their families because they feel unwelcome in a country, I wouldn't have thought that would be particularly surprising or difficult to understand.0 -
Dare I suggest that reallocating the fully funded places that the Scottish government is intending to continue providing to EU students to Scottish students instead is a pretty obvious place to start?HYUFD said:0 -
It's one possibility and while I seriously considered properly taking up writing for a while, I'm moving away from the idea. Writing is a very crowded field , and I know that I'm workmanlike rather than gifted, so I shall probably continue to write primarily for my own amusement.eadric said:
Yes! I'm a super-forecaster! Aha!AlastairMeeks said:
Perhaps Dominic Cummings should investigate this as a possible common link between superforecasters?Richard_Nabavi said:
I reckon I must have a hell of a lot more Zoroastrian ancestry than you have.eadric said:Incidentally can I have an apology from everyone on PB who accused me of being a blousy, fearmongery wet-the-bed when I started blatting on about coronavirus maybe a week ago?
Yes, of course I am a feamongering halfwit much of the time, but every so often I detect, early on, a genuine movement in the waters of the world. I believe the gift is related to my Zoroastrian ancestry.
Excellent header, by the way: lucid, clever, cogent, with just the right amount of drama without being Daily Expressy
Are you considering writing as a job after your retirement from lawyering? If not, you should.
I'm looking for unpopular, difficult but important activities to carry out as a main activity. I have a few ideas but I'm still keeping my options open for now.0 -
Definitely staying in Glasgow:
BORIS Johnson has personally invited Chinese President Xi to attend a climate summit in what would be a major diplomatic coup.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10992019/boris-johnson-invites-chinese-president-to-climate-summit/0 -
Indeed you are.eadric said:
I rise serenely above these canards. I am a super-forecaster.Luckyguy1983 said:
Zoroastrianism is a faith, not an ethnic group. And you are a blousy fearmongery wet the bed.eadric said:Incidentally can I have an apology from everyone on PB who accused me of being a blousy, fearmongery wet-the-bed when I started blatting on about coronavirus maybe a week ago?
Yes, of course I am a feamongering halfwit much of the time, but every so often I detect, early on, a genuine movement in the waters of the world. I believe the gift is related to my Zoroastrian ancestry.0 -
The 14-day quarantine could be awkward, though.CarlottaVance said:Definitely staying in Glasgow:
BORIS Johnson has personally invited Chinese President Xi to attend a climate summit in what would be a major diplomatic coup.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10992019/boris-johnson-invites-chinese-president-to-climate-summit/0 -
I certainly think so, and moved my equities to a strongly defensive, mostly cash position a couple of weeks back.eadric said:
Yes, lots of tiny wheels in the world economy are slowly grinding to a halt, unnoticed.CarlottaVance said:One obvious impact in the Far East is on tourism. Flight from Singapore to Melbourne packed, flight from Melbourne to Singapore less than half full. Singapore tourism down by 20,000 visitors a day. Other destinations which had large mainland Chinese tourists (in Bali they overtook Australians last year) similarly affected - which of course could mean great deals for those willing to travel. Could tip some EU countries which have large Chinese visitor numbers (France, Italy) into recession.
See here. Flights between Hong Kong and Israel have basically stopped, for a month at least
https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1230123128820465668?s=20
Now that's a tiny little chunk of global economic activity which won't happen, deals which won't get made, business which is postponed, and so on. But you add a million of these chunks together, and you have a perfect recipe for a global recession.0 -
Unpopular, difficult, important?AlastairMeeks said:
It's one possibility and while I seriously considered properly taking up writing for a while, I'm moving away from the idea. Writing is a very crowded field , and I know that I'm workmanlike rather than gifted, so I shall probably continue to write primarily for my own amusement.eadric said:
Yes! I'm a super-forecaster! Aha!AlastairMeeks said:
Perhaps Dominic Cummings should investigate this as a possible common link between superforecasters?Richard_Nabavi said:
I reckon I must have a hell of a lot more Zoroastrian ancestry than you have.eadric said:Incidentally can I have an apology from everyone on PB who accused me of being a blousy, fearmongery wet-the-bed when I started blatting on about coronavirus maybe a week ago?
Yes, of course I am a feamongering halfwit much of the time, but every so often I detect, early on, a genuine movement in the waters of the world. I believe the gift is related to my Zoroastrian ancestry.
Excellent header, by the way: lucid, clever, cogent, with just the right amount of drama without being Daily Expressy
Are you considering writing as a job after your retirement from lawyering? If not, you should.
I'm looking for unpopular, difficult but important activities to carry out as a main activity. I have a few ideas but I'm still keeping my options open for now.
The Labour Party is looking for a new Leader....0 -
https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1230099984563032065?s=20
Least likely to say "White People" should be prioritised....Con voters....similarly "Christians" among those who believe certain groups should be prioritised.0 -
I think the "less than before" suggests that some people do feel less welcome than before, or?eadric said:
And yet there is still net EU migration INTO the UK (albeit much less than before)kamski said:
I'm talking about EU nationals in the EU, not in the UK. There's a feeling, no doubt exaggerated but that's how things are being portrayed here, that the UK is now a hostile environment for European immigrants.RobD said:
So why did so many of them apply for the settled status rather than leave?Nigel_Foremain said:
I have spoken to many top professionals who have said the same. They can chose anywhere, so why would they chose to work somewhere where 52% of the population has told them to fuck off?kamski said:
Wow, so you can't feel unwelcome unless you're actually being deported!?HYUFD said:
They are not unwelcome otherwise they would be deported.AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230107290063249408HYUFD said:
They are not being deported, whether they disagree with the policy is irrelevantAlastairMeeks said:There was some inexplicable resistance to my suggestion last night that current UK residents who were EU migrants might find the tone of yesterday's immigration announcement unwelcoming:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1230100754003828737
I suppose you're entirely happy making fellow residents feel unwelcome.
We are just in future having an immigration system more focused on those whose skills we need
I personally know EU doctors and nurses who are no longer considering working in the UK precisely because they feel unwelcome.
But to answer your question: presumably because they live in the UK?
50,000 more Europeans came to live here last year, than those that left, despite Britain being a Nazi toilet that wants to make Spanish people eat pebbles
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/28/net-migration-from-eu-at-lowest-level-since-2003-ons-figures-show
The data does not support any of this hysteria.
Sure, the UK is still a pretty attractive place for lots of people to live.
What effect replacing EU freedom of movement with a slightly easier route for everybody (if that is actually what's happening) will have, I don't know. Will it lead to less immigration than would otherwise have been? Will wages for the low paidbe higher than otherwise? I don't know.
But EU-wide FoM is a completely different kind of thing to allowing people to have visas attached to certain kinds of job offers.0 -
Apparently Bicester Village is deserted.eadric said:
Yes, lots of tiny wheels in the world economy are slowly grinding to a halt, unnoticed.CarlottaVance said:One obvious impact in the Far East is on tourism. Flight from Singapore to Melbourne packed, flight from Melbourne to Singapore less than half full. Singapore tourism down by 20,000 visitors a day. Other destinations which had large mainland Chinese tourists (in Bali they overtook Australians last year) similarly affected - which of course could mean great deals for those willing to travel. Could tip some EU countries which have large Chinese visitor numbers (France, Italy) into recession.
See here. Flights between Hong Kong and Israel have basically stopped, for a month at least
https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1230123128820465668?s=20
Now that's a tiny little chunk of global economic activity which won't happen, deals which won't get made, business which is postponed, and so on. But you add a million of these chunks together, and you have a perfect recipe for a global recession.0 -
He'll be inside one of those giant clear bubbles.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 14-day quarantine could be awkward, though.CarlottaVance said:Definitely staying in Glasgow:
BORIS Johnson has personally invited Chinese President Xi to attend a climate summit in what would be a major diplomatic coup.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10992019/boris-johnson-invites-chinese-president-to-climate-summit/0 -
Perhaps the Euros in the summer would be a good time to get Boris in a Zorb, I'm sure he'd be up for it.RobD said:
He'll be inside one of those giant clear bubbles.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 14-day quarantine could be awkward, though.CarlottaVance said:Definitely staying in Glasgow:
BORIS Johnson has personally invited Chinese President Xi to attend a climate summit in what would be a major diplomatic coup.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10992019/boris-johnson-invites-chinese-president-to-climate-summit/0 -
It is "vanishingly unlikely" because the number of deaths topped out at about 150 per day is now back under 100. If that trend continues we are unlikely to see 10,000 deaths overall. We are waiting to see if the other shoe is going to fall but at the moment with the minimal deaths outside China and the falling deaths inside it this looks like being 2-3 times worse than SARS but nowhere near H1N1.eadric said:
Why is it "vanishingly unlikely"?DavidL said:Again to put it in perspective on current trends it seems vanishingly unlikely that Covid-19 will cause as many deaths as the H1N1 Swine flu did. The latter killed up to half a million people: https://www.verywellhealth.com/what-is-h1n1-swine-flu-770496
Does everyone remember the international recession in 2009/10 caused by Swine flu? Thought not.
One very plausible scenario is that Covid spreads globally, and turns out not to have a dystopian death rate, and is just a nasty flu - but it persists over years, and is difficult or impossible to cure or prevent.
It will become part of the viral ecosystem, knocking out people every winter. We will learn to live with it,
In this highly possible situation it would kill millions, but over a long time, so we wouldn't notice it.1 -
The big test comes in the next couple of months. If China gets back to work, then the disruption will be fairly limited.eadric said:
Yes, lots of tiny wheels in the world economy are slowly grinding to a halt, unnoticed.CarlottaVance said:One obvious impact in the Far East is on tourism. Flight from Singapore to Melbourne packed, flight from Melbourne to Singapore less than half full. Singapore tourism down by 20,000 visitors a day. Other destinations which had large mainland Chinese tourists (in Bali they overtook Australians last year) similarly affected - which of course could mean great deals for those willing to travel. Could tip some EU countries which have large Chinese visitor numbers (France, Italy) into recession.
See here. Flights between Hong Kong and Israel have basically stopped, for a month at least
https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1230123128820465668?s=20
Now that's a tiny little chunk of global economic activity which won't happen, deals which won't get made, business which is postponed, and so on. But you add a million of these chunks together, and you have a perfect recipe for a global recession.
If not, a severe economic shock is possible.
https://www.eetimes.com/report-chip-industry-dodges-direct-impact-of-coronavirus/0 -
It's global:Peter_the_Punter said:
Apparently Bicester Village is deserted.eadric said:
Yes, lots of tiny wheels in the world economy are slowly grinding to a halt, unnoticed.CarlottaVance said:One obvious impact in the Far East is on tourism. Flight from Singapore to Melbourne packed, flight from Melbourne to Singapore less than half full. Singapore tourism down by 20,000 visitors a day. Other destinations which had large mainland Chinese tourists (in Bali they overtook Australians last year) similarly affected - which of course could mean great deals for those willing to travel. Could tip some EU countries which have large Chinese visitor numbers (France, Italy) into recession.
See here. Flights between Hong Kong and Israel have basically stopped, for a month at least
https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1230123128820465668?s=20
Now that's a tiny little chunk of global economic activity which won't happen, deals which won't get made, business which is postponed, and so on. But you add a million of these chunks together, and you have a perfect recipe for a global recession.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/17/world/europe/coronavirus-tourism-europe.html0 -
On topic: I would quite recommend this excellent BBC documentary on iplayer on the Spanish Flu.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0blmn5l0 -
One pleasure about retiring is that I can now do a few things at work without consequence. I've delivered a long talk for the juniors setting out my views on writing (I have strong views on some aspects, you might be surprised to learn). This has been cathartic for me and traumatic for others.eadric said:
Hmm. I think you are under-estimating yourself. I reckon you have a real gift for presenting complex ideas in a clear AND entertaining way (and that is not common).AlastairMeeks said:
It's one possibility and while I seriously considered properly taking up writing for a while, I'm moving away from the idea. Writing is a very crowded field , and I know that I'm workmanlike rather than gifted, so I shall probably continue to write primarily for my own amusement.eadric said:
Yes! I'm a super-forecaster! Aha!AlastairMeeks said:
Perhaps Dominic Cummings should investigate this as a possible common link between superforecasters?Richard_Nabavi said:
I reckon I must have a hell of a lot more Zoroastrian ancestry than you have.eadric said:Incidentally can I have an apology from everyone on PB who accused me of being a blousy, fearmongery wet-the-bed when I started blatting on about coronavirus maybe a week ago?
Yes, of course I am a feamongering halfwit much of the time, but every so often I detect, early on, a genuine movement in the waters of the world. I believe the gift is related to my Zoroastrian ancestry.
Excellent header, by the way: lucid, clever, cogent, with just the right amount of drama without being Daily Expressy
Are you considering writing as a job after your retirement from lawyering? If not, you should.
I'm looking for unpopular, difficult but important activities to carry out as a main activity. I have a few ideas but I'm still keeping my options open for now.
This header is an excellent example. It is better than any article I have read on corona this last week (and I have read dozens).
It could easily go in the Spectator, the Sunday Times or FT Weekend. You should maybe reassess - if you enjoy writing.
But avoid writing about Brexit
0 -
At the very least a couple of weeks too early to conclude the risk is ‘vanishingly small’, I think.DavidL said:
It is "vanishingly unlikely" because the number of deaths topped out at about 150 per day is now back under 100. If that trend continues we are unlikely to see 10,000 deaths overall. We are waiting to see if the other shoe is going to fall but at the moment with the minimal deaths outside China and the falling deaths inside it this looks like being 2-3 times worse than SARS but nowhere near H1N1.eadric said:
Why is it "vanishingly unlikely"?DavidL said:Again to put it in perspective on current trends it seems vanishingly unlikely that Covid-19 will cause as many deaths as the H1N1 Swine flu did. The latter killed up to half a million people: https://www.verywellhealth.com/what-is-h1n1-swine-flu-770496
Does everyone remember the international recession in 2009/10 caused by Swine flu? Thought not.
One very plausible scenario is that Covid spreads globally, and turns out not to have a dystopian death rate, and is just a nasty flu - but it persists over years, and is difficult or impossible to cure or prevent.
It will become part of the viral ecosystem, knocking out people every winter. We will learn to live with it,
In this highly possible situation it would kill millions, but over a long time, so we wouldn't notice it.0 -
Labour would be far better than claiming these new immigration rules are all racist dog whistles, say they support the general premise, but think they could be improved in some areas to ensure we don't have shortages in things like the social care sector.
Cos Stoke man isn't going to return to Labour if all he hears is Diane Abbott banging on we shouldn't change the system period.1 -
You forgot to mention that other f-words are available.eadric said:
I rise serenely above these canards. I am a super-forecaster.Luckyguy1983 said:
Zoroastrianism is a faith, not an ethnic group. And you are a blousy fearmongery wet the bed.eadric said:Incidentally can I have an apology from everyone on PB who accused me of being a blousy, fearmongery wet-the-bed when I started blatting on about coronavirus maybe a week ago?
Yes, of course I am a feamongering halfwit much of the time, but every so often I detect, early on, a genuine movement in the waters of the world. I believe the gift is related to my Zoroastrian ancestry.0 -
Yebbut planes cause pollutionFrancisUrquhart said:The government are going to bottle Heathrow expansion aren't they....tw@ts.
https://order-order.com/2020/02/19/government-drops-heathrow-expansion-ministerial-priority/
0 -
In fairness the leeway between 10k and over 500k gives me a bit of wriggle room!Nigelb said:
At the very least a couple of weeks too early to conclude the risk is ‘vanishingly small’, I think.DavidL said:
It is "vanishingly unlikely" because the number of deaths topped out at about 150 per day is now back under 100. If that trend continues we are unlikely to see 10,000 deaths overall. We are waiting to see if the other shoe is going to fall but at the moment with the minimal deaths outside China and the falling deaths inside it this looks like being 2-3 times worse than SARS but nowhere near H1N1.eadric said:
Why is it "vanishingly unlikely"?DavidL said:Again to put it in perspective on current trends it seems vanishingly unlikely that Covid-19 will cause as many deaths as the H1N1 Swine flu did. The latter killed up to half a million people: https://www.verywellhealth.com/what-is-h1n1-swine-flu-770496
Does everyone remember the international recession in 2009/10 caused by Swine flu? Thought not.
One very plausible scenario is that Covid spreads globally, and turns out not to have a dystopian death rate, and is just a nasty flu - but it persists over years, and is difficult or impossible to cure or prevent.
It will become part of the viral ecosystem, knocking out people every winter. We will learn to live with it,
In this highly possible situation it would kill millions, but over a long time, so we wouldn't notice it.0 -
No - I’m quite happy to acknowledge he displays a degree of resemblance to recent hires under that rubric.IanB2 said:
You forgot to mention that other f-words are available.eadric said:
I rise serenely above these canards. I am a super-forecaster.Luckyguy1983 said:
Zoroastrianism is a faith, not an ethnic group. And you are a blousy fearmongery wet the bed.eadric said:Incidentally can I have an apology from everyone on PB who accused me of being a blousy, fearmongery wet-the-bed when I started blatting on about coronavirus maybe a week ago?
Yes, of course I am a feamongering halfwit much of the time, but every so often I detect, early on, a genuine movement in the waters of the world. I believe the gift is related to my Zoroastrian ancestry.0 -
H1N1 is still about as a seasonal flu. And it can still take the old and the weak. Its not impossible that this will hang about too having made the species jump but for all practical purposes in this neck of the woods it will have disappeared. I am a lot more relaxed about this than I was a week ago. But who knows what next week will bring?eadric said:
Yes, but you're ignoring my point, which is that this highly contagious new flu (with a death rate ~0/5%? so worse than normal flu) might simply become part of our viral ecosystem, never cured or prevented, never so bad the world falls apart.DavidL said:
It is "vanishingly unlikely" because the number of deaths topped out at about 150 per day is now back under 100. If that trend continues we are unlikely to see 10,000 deaths overall. We are waiting to see if the other shoe is going to fall but at the moment with the minimal deaths outside China and the falling deaths inside it this looks like being 2-3 times worse than SARS but nowhere near H1N1.eadric said:
Why is it "vanishingly unlikely"?DavidL said:Again to put it in perspective on current trends it seems vanishingly unlikely that Covid-19 will cause as many deaths as the H1N1 Swine flu did. The latter killed up to half a million people: https://www.verywellhealth.com/what-is-h1n1-swine-flu-770496
Does everyone remember the international recession in 2009/10 caused by Swine flu? Thought not.
One very plausible scenario is that Covid spreads globally, and turns out not to have a dystopian death rate, and is just a nasty flu - but it persists over years, and is difficult or impossible to cure or prevent.
It will become part of the viral ecosystem, knocking out people every winter. We will learn to live with it,
In this highly possible situation it would kill millions, but over a long time, so we wouldn't notice it.
Over years it would kill millions, just like normal flu.0 -
With deductions based on the data, GIGO. And that looks likely here:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economic-data-have-always-raised-questions-its-coronavirus-numbers-do-too-515816228400 -
Airline activity suffering for sure. But it doesn't mean deals aren't still being done by video-conferencing (whose sales will have had a good COVID-19).eadric said:
Yes, lots of tiny wheels in the world economy are slowly grinding to a halt, unnoticed.CarlottaVance said:One obvious impact in the Far East is on tourism. Flight from Singapore to Melbourne packed, flight from Melbourne to Singapore less than half full. Singapore tourism down by 20,000 visitors a day. Other destinations which had large mainland Chinese tourists (in Bali they overtook Australians last year) similarly affected - which of course could mean great deals for those willing to travel. Could tip some EU countries which have large Chinese visitor numbers (France, Italy) into recession.
See here. Flights between Hong Kong and Israel have basically stopped, for a month at least
https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1230123128820465668?s=20
Now that's a tiny little chunk of global economic activity which won't happen, deals which won't get made, business which is postponed, and so on. But you add a million of these chunks together, and you have a perfect recipe for a global recession.
And when the dust settles, it won't have done property in London any harm with the Chinese buyers.0 -
Blimey, do you use the same definition for "vanishingly unlikely" in your day job ?DavidL said:
It is "vanishingly unlikely" because the number of deaths topped out at about 150 per day is now back under 100. If that trend continues we are unlikely to see 10,000 deaths overall. We are waiting to see if the other shoe is going to fall but at the moment with the minimal deaths outside China and the falling deaths inside it this looks like being 2-3 times worse than SARS but nowhere near H1N1.eadric said:
Why is it "vanishingly unlikely"?DavidL said:Again to put it in perspective on current trends it seems vanishingly unlikely that Covid-19 will cause as many deaths as the H1N1 Swine flu did. The latter killed up to half a million people: https://www.verywellhealth.com/what-is-h1n1-swine-flu-770496
Does everyone remember the international recession in 2009/10 caused by Swine flu? Thought not.
One very plausible scenario is that Covid spreads globally, and turns out not to have a dystopian death rate, and is just a nasty flu - but it persists over years, and is difficult or impossible to cure or prevent.
It will become part of the viral ecosystem, knocking out people every winter. We will learn to live with it,
In this highly possible situation it would kill millions, but over a long time, so we wouldn't notice it.0 -
Have you watched The Loudest Voice? Pretty hard to listen to anything Fox says after that.eadric said:Here's a good essay on Covid, presenting a much more pessimistic outlook. It basically says China is Lying.
I find these paragraphs particularly interesting, and quite plausible.
"The Chinese Communist party is generally insensitive to public health. Air pollution contributes to roughly 1.6 million deaths per year. About half the country’s water is too polluted to touch. Food poisoning is routine; infants have starved to death when their parents relied on counterfeit baby formula. Approximately a quarter-million people per year die in traffic accidents, partly because perverse incentives in tort law make it cheaper for a negligent driver to kill a pedestrian than to cripple one.
"In order for the party to have responded to COVID-19 this drastically, the death toll would first have had to exceed local officials’ capacity to cover it up, and then also convinced the nation’s top officials that it represents an existential threat."
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/lew-olowski-coronavirus-worse-than-reported-heres-how-china-is-making-the-situation-worse
The whole thing is worth a read.0 -
Lucky to have been let in so easily in the first place.AlastairMeeks said:Day two of Leavers shouting at EU migrants and telling them how they should feel.
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One of the more fascinating things about that poll is that barely half of Remainers support prioritisation for low-skilled workers in shortage occupations. Many people who voted remain are not liberals like the most outspoken #FBPErs.CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1230099984563032065?s=20
Least likely to say "White People" should be prioritised....Con voters....similarly "Christians" among those who believe certain groups should be prioritised.
Suggests bleeting about the issue may not develop to the FBPE brigade's advantage.1 -
14-day quarantine for BJ or Xi?Richard_Nabavi said:
The 14-day quarantine could be awkward, though.CarlottaVance said:Definitely staying in Glasgow:
BORIS Johnson has personally invited Chinese President Xi to attend a climate summit in what would be a major diplomatic coup.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10992019/boris-johnson-invites-chinese-president-to-climate-summit/
https://twitter.com/Roy_Isserlis/status/1189305282737967104?s=200 -
Don't laugh, but I think Steyer is better than a 26-1 shot for South Carolina.0
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I know they won't do it*, but polls like this make me think there's a strong case for the DNC forcing all states to implement AV where you reassign until no candidate is below 15-20%. Mad number of wasted votes looking likely on Super Tuesday, and possible that the wrong** candidate wins the process if their opposition is split.
*(Though didn't Maine just bring in AV for state elections? The movement begins...)
**(I think Sanders will win in a 2-person race anyway, but it's plausible he wouldn't and will benefit disproportionately from split opponents.)
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/12301256360957952021 -
The interesting bit will be when the EU implements similar points systems for migrants from the UK. That is the difference with RoW, repriciocity.brokenwheel said:
One of the more fascinating things about that poll is that barely half of Remainers support prioritisation for low-skilled workers in shortage occupations. Many people who voted remain are not liberals like the most outspoken #FBPErs.CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1230099984563032065?s=20
Least likely to say "White People" should be prioritised....Con voters....similarly "Christians" among those who believe certain groups should be prioritised.
Suggests bleeting about the issue may not develop to the FBPE brigade's advantage.0 -
Let's face it, the virus outbreak has shown up the glaring weaknesses and abuses in the current Chinese system.eadric said:Here's a good essay on Covid, presenting a much more pessimistic outlook. It basically says China is Lying.
I find these paragraphs particularly interesting, and quite plausible.
"The Chinese Communist party is generally insensitive to public health. Air pollution contributes to roughly 1.6 million deaths per year. About half the country’s water is too polluted to touch. Food poisoning is routine; infants have starved to death when their parents relied on counterfeit baby formula. Approximately a quarter-million people per year die in traffic accidents, partly because perverse incentives in tort law make it cheaper for a negligent driver to kill a pedestrian than to cripple one.
"In order for the party to have responded to COVID-19 this drastically, the death toll would first have had to exceed local officials’ capacity to cover it up, and then also convinced the nation’s top officials that it represents an existential threat."
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/lew-olowski-coronavirus-worse-than-reported-heres-how-china-is-making-the-situation-worse
The whole thing is worth a read.
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Interesting.AlastairMeeks said:With deductions based on the data, GIGO. And that looks likely here:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economic-data-have-always-raised-questions-its-coronavirus-numbers-do-too-515816228400 -
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My company has lost several highly paid EU employees from them choosing to move home citing Brexit as the reason they have done so.contrarian said:
The notion that our millions of UK based EU workers are about to flee for the bountiful job opportunities available on the continent is one of the more delusional things I have read on this site.AlastairMeeks said:There was some inexplicable resistance to my suggestion last night that current UK residents who were EU migrants might find the tone of yesterday's immigration announcement unwelcoming:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/12301007540038287370 -
Taking out Ireland and the Costas, the number licvng in Europe is around 700,000. Versus three and a half million the other way.Foxy said:
The interesting bit will be when the EU implements similar points systems for migrants from the UK. That is the difference with RoW, repriciocity.brokenwheel said:
One of the more fascinating things about that poll is that barely half of Remainers support prioritisation for low-skilled workers in shortage occupations. Many people who voted remain are not liberals like the most outspoken #FBPErs.CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1230099984563032065?s=20
Least likely to say "White People" should be prioritised....Con voters....similarly "Christians" among those who believe certain groups should be prioritised.
Suggests bleeting about the issue may not develop to the FBPE brigade's advantage.
The UK citizen's 'right to live and work in Europe' was only ever a right for a privileged few. For the rest it was a pipedream at best.
One reason remain lost.2 -
The fraction of the UK population that works in Europe is tiny, and many of those are already FBPE liberals. Everyone else doesn't care.Foxy said:
The interesting bit will be when the EU implements similar points systems for migrants from the UK. That is the difference with RoW, repriciocity.brokenwheel said:
One of the more fascinating things about that poll is that barely half of Remainers support prioritisation for low-skilled workers in shortage occupations. Many people who voted remain are not liberals like the most outspoken #FBPErs.CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1230099984563032065?s=20
Least likely to say "White People" should be prioritised....Con voters....similarly "Christians" among those who believe certain groups should be prioritised.
Suggests bleeting about the issue may not develop to the FBPE brigade's advantage.
More significant is retirees, and it's difficult to see the Mediterranean economies shooting themselves in the foot.0 -
The Fox article seems to me to be maybe this, maybe that. I thought the arguments on here this morning that this is just another manipulation by the Chinese Communist Party to have even more control over their benighted population "for their own good" were more persuasive. @AlastairMeeks article based on the rather too perfect mathematical model is also thought provoking.eadric said:
Fox is a bit like the Daily Mail or the Guardian, it comes out with some completely crazy bollocks, but amongst the dross there are often some sharp, prescient analyses.DavidL said:
Have you watched The Loudest Voice? Pretty hard to listen to anything Fox says after that.eadric said:
This one looks to be at the more sensible end of things.
Because it makes a good and telling point. China has put 750m people, a tenth of humanity, and half its population, in some kind of travel ban. It has 150m in complete lockdown, entire cities trapped in their homes.
It is endangering its own economy, and its global reputation, to get a grip on this disease (which they first tried to cover up)
This is a country used to mass death, and forced sterilisation, etc.
Would they react with such ferocious and perilous severity to just another "bad kind of flu"?
This article suggests YOU might be right, and since SARS China has just become more aware, and better prepared
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0771-1
But I can see the opposite argument, too.
But the key point remains the tiny number of deaths outside China. Unless that changes very materially this is going to be quickly forgotten. And the clock is ticking on that. This virus has been in a variety of other countries for weeks now. People are getting better and returned home. Deaths are statistically insignificant.0 -
Yep - the better off will be returning home. For those earning less the £25,600 or so the UK will probably always be a better home than their original country..Alistair said:
My company has lost several highly paid EU employees from them choosing to move home citing Brexit as the reason they have done so.contrarian said:
The notion that our millions of UK based EU workers are about to flee for the bountiful job opportunities available on the continent is one of the more delusional things I have read on this site.AlastairMeeks said:There was some inexplicable resistance to my suggestion last night that current UK residents who were EU migrants might find the tone of yesterday's immigration announcement unwelcoming:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/12301007540038287370 -
Yeah. I've actually been ahead of the pundits in how serious a chance I think Bloomberg has, but the odds have always been ahead of where I think he is so I've never been willing to hedge at the price available.Pulpstar said:
Right now I think the 538 model with plurality selected and Biden/Bloomberg switched is about the same as my gut so:
Sanders - 50-60%
Bloomberg - 20-25%
Biden - 15-20%
Biden should get a better result in Nevada and could well then win SC. If either/both of those happen then he might pick up some support again, but the trend for him vs Bloomberg is ominous otherwise.0 -
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Though perfectly reasonable to have income and no recourse to public funds as requirements.brokenwheel said:
The fraction of the UK population that works in Europe is tiny, and many of those are already FBPE liberals. Everyone else doesn't care.Foxy said:
The interesting bit will be when the EU implements similar points systems for migrants from the UK. That is the difference with RoW, repriciocity.brokenwheel said:
One of the more fascinating things about that poll is that barely half of Remainers support prioritisation for low-skilled workers in shortage occupations. Many people who voted remain are not liberals like the most outspoken #FBPErs.CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1230099984563032065?s=20
Least likely to say "White People" should be prioritised....Con voters....similarly "Christians" among those who believe certain groups should be prioritised.
Suggests bleeting about the issue may not develop to the FBPE brigade's advantage.
More significant is retirees, and it's difficult to see the Mediterranean economies shooting themselves in the foot.
With the aging EU population, plenty of EU retirees to fill the costa gap.0 -
Who's taking her place as home secretary then?HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1230107812589703176?s=20Richard_Tyndall said:
And yet there are lots of current vacancies for low skilled jobs at the moment and people don't seem to be wanting to take them....HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1230068222189326336?s=20Nigel_Foremain said:
So fucking naïve. No wonder the Conservatives are no longer the party of business. Most of them just do not understand how the real world works.HYUFD said:0
