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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Journal Of The Plague Year. The politics of Covid-19

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  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    You're all a load of snowflakes. A 2% fatality rate, it's a pussy. Come and have a go if you think … etc. I'm over 70 now and I remember pneumonia being called "old man's friend".

    I thought WHO were only fretting about Africa - where the effects might be magnified. Whatever happened to the stiff upper lip?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,229
    Charles said:

    You should know better than to write this kind of fact-light scaremongering article on this platform

    Covid-19 is an nv coronavirus. These are well known. Zoonosis is a well understood phenomenon. Contagion in China was bad in one province because the Wuhan politicians were idiots.

    The Diamond Princess contagion rates are pleasingly low given that they are in a confirmed area with vectors that can transmit the virus between passengers

    In the U.K. 8 of the 9 infected individuals have already been released from hospital.

    Fundamentally this is less severe but more contagious than SARS. We are going to be fine.

    I have no problem with the article but I share your (relatively) sunny side up view of this. That said, I freely confess to zero expertise on the subject.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065


    In terms of containing the thing if it kicked off here. Does the UK have the social capital and trust in government to put up with a draconian containment policy? Does the US under Trump?

    The UK is particularly well positioned to deal with large epidemics precisely because of the the centralised health system. Insurance based systems might have more money per patient (under non-pandemic situations) but the fragmented control makes it much harder to implement a coordinated emergency response, and the cost of such a response is much higher. The government is in a much better position to say "we will provide 100 Million for the emergency response" than two hundred private and not-for-profit health insurance companies each to say "we will provide half a million"
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    When it will be time to panic is when the first Mars explorers come home. I've seen Species 2, I know how it goes down. A shame it already exists or it would have made a good one for Sean to write.
  • Anyway, this morning's ringside seat is watching Matthew Goodwin and Rob Ford, co-authors of "Revolt On The Right", knocking seven bells out of each other on Twitter about immigration. It's getting perilously close to History Today.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,229

    As it happens, I have a cold at the moment. I had a double seat to myself this morning on a crowded train. The guy who sat down next to me thought better of it after a few minutes.

    #itsprobablynotcovid19

    My wife is Chinese so I have quite the dilemma. Decamp for a while or stay and tough it out?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Meeks,

    "As it happens, I have a cold at the moment. I had a double seat to myself this morning on a crowded train."

    That would be London - Snowflake Central?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    CD13 said:

    I'm over 70 now and I remember pneumonia being called "old man's friend".

    In my lifetime it was also common to pollute the air with lead and to smoke indoors with children present. That pneumonia had a cute name does not mean we shouldn't prevent people of dying from it.

    The fatality rate of COVID19 for those between 70 and 79 years old is at the moment 8%. Are you prepared to roll two dice and you die if you roll a 2 or 3? I though not.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    moonshine said:

    matt said:

    moonshine said:

    Good thread. I think even in your best case scenario there is going to be a long lasting scarring effect. The Higher Education system is particularly exposed now to Chinese students. The enormous building of luxury student accommodation is looking a bit of a nightmare for those investors.

    I'd say it has the potential to seriously put globalisation into decline. That's the best case.. I'm puzzled how Moonshine is claiming the balance of data shows this is all going to be OK. Please can you point us in the direction of this data?

    .
    A post with some insight into how the CCP operates - millions could die and they won’t give a shit as long as the CCP remains the ultimate power. Have you had the displeasure of living in China?

    That said, the cancelling of the big party meetings next month doesn’t help the argument that everything’s getting better, suggesting, “go back to work it’s perfectly safe for the workers, but not for the leaders”.

    Serious questions need to be asked of that chap from Imperial College with his "400k UK deaths" scaremongering on live tv.
    That is more or less in line with the figures in my Trusts pandemic Flu plan. It makes grim reading.

    The question is how many asymptomatic patients there have been to calculate the mortality rate. We don't know yet.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Top rate thread header again Alastair. I am not sure it will age well (I hope it won't!) but it's certainly sparked conversation.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr eristdoof,

    I don't suffer from COPD or asthma, but if it's got my number on it, I've had my three score and ten. I survived October 27th 1962 - now that was a real crisis.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Enough of this speculation - can't we just get the answer from one of Cummings' superforecasters?
  • Top rate thread header again Alastair. I am not sure it will age well (I hope it won't!) but it's certainly sparked conversation.

    I hope it won't too. If we're all going to be wiped out, I'd rather it was something nice and dramatic like a supervolcano or an asteroid. There's something so lacking in dramatic dignity about an airborne infection.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    edited February 2020

    malcolmg said:


    I have to laugh at the MPs having lack of downtime, most of them spend the majority of their time in the subsidised bars and restaurants living high on the hog on our cash , with a few interruptions to go vote. Must be the cushiest job in the country. Don't get me started on the holidays the f***ers vote for themselves either.

    I think being an MP is one of the hardest jobs there is.
    You are probably both right, and that an MP's job is either very hard or very cushy depending how conscientious the MP is. Devote your life to select committees and constituency work or just turn up when the whips tell you and sit in the subsidised bars till the division bell rings; and let your staff draft all replies for signature. In a safe seat it is almost entirely a matter of conscience.

    If it were down to me, I'd pay MPs a bit more, say £100k to bring them into line with doctors and head teachers, and increase (and professionalise) their staff, but realistically no government will pay to create more informed, troublesome backbenchers. Governments want lobby fodder, and prefer to force through flawed legislation than risk headlines about U-turns.
    This is not a new problem:

    When in that House M.P.s divide,
    If they've a brain and cerebellum, too,
    They've got to leave that brain outside,
    And vote just as their leaders tell 'em to.
    But then the prospect of a lot
    Of dull M. P.s in close proximity,
    All thinking for themselves, is what
    No man can face with equanimity.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359

    malcolmg said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I suppose I would feel pretty bitter if I woke up one day to find my nationhood and sense of identity had been taken away from me. For example if the UK became a provincial authority of the United States of Europe.

    There aren’t many of them in Britain but I guess there are some whose sense of national self identity was that of “EU Citizen”. That sucks for you guys, hope you feel better in time because it must feel terrible right now. Doesn’t do much good throwing rocks at each other in the meantime.

    It’s nothing to do with national self-identity. It’s the appalling realisation that a large body of the population is willing to and has trashed every civic institution in pursuit of a mad obsession. What’s been taken away is any sense that Britain is a country where decency and moderation wins out. It’s now a country where people like you enthusiastically fall into line behind xenophobic lies and look to impose a destructive Brexit on the rest of us. One day you will realise just how disgustingly you and other Leavers have behaved. In the meantime, the country continues to degrade.
    Dude you need to take a holiday / get more sleep.

    "People like me". "Xenophobic". "behaved disgustingly".
    You personally smeared your opponents as mentally ill. So yes, people like you.
    I find you quite interesting. Because you seem to think it is a smear to point out that MPs' mental health appeared to be at breaking point with all the MVs, public pressure and lack of downtime last year.

    As I said before, you've written some cracking headers in your time. I've even read some of them out aloud to friends, long before I stopped lurking here.

    I guess I'll leave it there because mud slinging does no good
    I have to laugh at the MPs having lack of downtime, most of them spend the majority of their time in the subsidised bars and restaurants living high on the hog on our cash , with a few interruptions to go vote. Must be the cushiest job in the country. Don't get me started on the holidays the f***ers vote for themselves either.
    I think being an MP is one of the hardest jobs there is.
    It looks simple to me , as long as you can bullshit it looks a breeze. Late starts , attend a few votes, piss it up in the subsided facilities , half the year on holiday , claim anything you want as expenses and gold plated pension, what more could you ask for.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    kinabalu said:

    Charles said:

    You should know better than to write this kind of fact-light scaremongering article on this platform

    Covid-19 is an nv coronavirus. These are well known. Zoonosis is a well understood phenomenon. Contagion in China was bad in one province because the Wuhan politicians were idiots.

    The Diamond Princess contagion rates are pleasingly low given that they are in a confirmed area with vectors that can transmit the virus between passengers

    In the U.K. 8 of the 9 infected individuals have already been released from hospital.

    Fundamentally this is less severe but more contagious than SARS. We are going to be fine.

    I have no problem with the article but I share your (relatively) sunny side up view of this. That said, I freely confess to zero expertise on the subject.
    A neat summary of the position many people are in (except those already panicking).

    As Jeff Bezos said when he first pitched for funds to launch Amazon, "humans simply don't understand exponential growth"
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I suppose I would feel pretty bitter if I woke up one day to find my nationhood and sense of identity had been taken away from me. For example if the UK became a provincial authority of the United States of Europe.

    There aren’t many of them in Britain but I guess there are some whose sense of national self identity was that of “EU Citizen”. That sucks for you guys, hope you feel better in time because it must feel terrible right now. Doesn’t do much good throwing rocks at each other in the meantime.

    It’s nothing to do with national self-identity. It’s the appalling realisation that a large body of the population is willing to and has trashed every civic institution in pursuit of a mad obsession. What’s been taken away is any sense that Britain is a country where decency and moderation wins out. It’s now a country where people like you enthusiastically fall into line behind xenophobic lies and look to impose a destructive Brexit on the rest of us. One day you will realise just how disgustingly you and other Leavers have behaved. In the meantime, the country continues to degrade.
    Dude you need to take a holiday / get more sleep.

    "People like me". "Xenophobic". "behaved disgustingly".
    You personally smeared your opponents as mentally ill. So yes, people like you.
    I find you quite interesting. Because you seem to think it is a smear to point out that MPs' mental health appeared to be at breaking point with all the MVs, public pressure and lack of downtime last year.

    As I said before, you've written some cracking headers in your time. I've even read some of them out aloud to friends, long before I stopped lurking here.

    I guess I'll leave it there because mud slinging does no good
    I have to laugh at the MPs having lack of downtime, most of them spend the majority of their time in the subsidised bars and restaurants living high on the hog on our cash , with a few interruptions to go vote. Must be the cushiest job in the country. Don't get me started on the holidays the f***ers vote for themselves either.
    I think being an MP is one of the hardest jobs there is.
    It looks simple to me , as long as you can bullshit it looks a breeze. Late starts , attend a few votes, piss it up in the subsided facilities , half the year on holiday , claim anything you want as expenses and gold plated pension, what more could you ask for.
    In your case, not having to spend half your time in London, surely?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    CD13 said:

    You're all a load of snowflakes. A 2% fatality rate, it's a pussy. Come and have a go if you think … etc. I'm over 70 now and I remember pneumonia being called "old man's friend".

    I thought WHO were only fretting about Africa - where the effects might be magnified. Whatever happened to the stiff upper lip?

    On my last two visits to sub-S Africa, there were Chinese people all over the place. It's hard to believe it isn't in Africa already; they just don't know it.
  • malcolmg said:


    I have to laugh at the MPs having lack of downtime, most of them spend the majority of their time in the subsidised bars and restaurants living high on the hog on our cash , with a few interruptions to go vote. Must be the cushiest job in the country. Don't get me started on the holidays the f***ers vote for themselves either.

    I think being an MP is one of the hardest jobs there is.
    You are probably both right, and that an MP's job is either very hard or very cushy depending how conscientious the MP is. Devote your life to select committees and constituency work or just turn up when the whips tell you and sit in the subsidised bars till the division bell rings; and let your staff draft all replies for signature. In a safe seat it is almost entirely a matter of conscience.

    If it were down to me, I'd pay MPs a bit more, say £100k to bring them into line with doctors and head teachers, and increase (and professionalise) their staff, but realistically no government will pay to create more informed, troublesome backbenchers. Governments want lobby fodder, and prefer to force through flawed legislation than risk headlines about U-turns.
    This is not a new problem:

    When in that House M.P.s divide,
    If they've a brain and cerebellum, too,
    They've got to leave that brain outside,
    And vote just as their leaders tell 'em to.
    But then the prospect of a lot
    Of dull M. P.s in close proximity,
    All thinking for themselves, is what
    No man can face with equanimity.
    Dammit, I'm going to humming that all morning, now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,228

    Charles said:

    @AlastairMeeks

    You should know better than to write this kind of fact-light scaremongering article on this platform

    Covid-19 is an nv coronavirus. These are well known. Zoonosis is a well understood phenomenon. Contagion in China was bad in one province because the Wuhan politicians were idiots.

    The Diamond Princess contagion rates are pleasingly low given that they are in a confirmed area with vectors that can transmit the virus between passengers

    In the U.K. 8 of the 9 infected individuals have already been released from hospital.

    Fundamentally this is less severe but more contagious than SARS. We are going to be fine.

    Given the French health minister yesterday said that the possibility of Covid-19 spreading worldwide was “both a working assumption and a credible risk", you will have to accept that your view is not universally held.
    And it's hardly "scaremongering" to present three different scenarios, all of which are within the bounds of possibility. (And Charles is just a little fact light himself in failing to note that only a fraction of the Diamond Princess passengers have actually been tested for the virus, while drawing conclusions about the 'pleasingly low contagion rates'.)
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    I think being an MP is one of the hardest jobs there is.

    Hard in what sense? It suffers from precarity but that's just about every job now that we're living in toryworld.

    Genuinely hard jobs are roles like delivering disgusting food on a scooter in South London, working in a care home or being a biorobot in an Amazon distribution centre.
  • Animal_pb said:

    malcolmg said:


    I have to laugh at the MPs having lack of downtime, most of them spend the majority of their time in the subsidised bars and restaurants living high on the hog on our cash , with a few interruptions to go vote. Must be the cushiest job in the country. Don't get me started on the holidays the f***ers vote for themselves either.

    I think being an MP is one of the hardest jobs there is.
    You are probably both right, and that an MP's job is either very hard or very cushy depending how conscientious the MP is. Devote your life to select committees and constituency work or just turn up when the whips tell you and sit in the subsidised bars till the division bell rings; and let your staff draft all replies for signature. In a safe seat it is almost entirely a matter of conscience.

    If it were down to me, I'd pay MPs a bit more, say £100k to bring them into line with doctors and head teachers, and increase (and professionalise) their staff, but realistically no government will pay to create more informed, troublesome backbenchers. Governments want lobby fodder, and prefer to force through flawed legislation than risk headlines about U-turns.
    This is not a new problem:

    When in that House M.P.s divide,
    If they've a brain and cerebellum, too,
    They've got to leave that brain outside,
    And vote just as their leaders tell 'em to.
    But then the prospect of a lot
    Of dull M. P.s in close proximity,
    All thinking for themselves, is what
    No man can face with equanimity.
    Dammit, I'm going to humming that all morning, now.
    I sang it at university a long time ago: one of the best songs in the show and you only have to be there for act 2.
  • HYUFD said:
    If Corbyn was still in charge, I'm sure he would jump at the chance of supporting the political wing of the IRA.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Dura_Ace said:



    I think being an MP is one of the hardest jobs there is.

    Hard in what sense? It suffers from precarity but that's just about every job now that we're living in toryworld.

    Genuinely hard jobs are roles like delivering disgusting food on a scooter in South London, working in a care home or being a biorobot in an Amazon distribution centre.
    I think the hardest jobs are those where you have to deal with the general public.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Genuinely surprised by Sanders numbers amongst Hispanics. His car crash interview on a Spanish language TV station was part of what sunk him against Hilary last time out.
  • eristdoof said:


    The outbreak in Wuhan is serious, but in all likelihood the epidemic in this city is likely to be towards the most severe end of the viruses capabilities. The crisis hit in the middle of winter, in a large city with a high population density. I suspect that millions there live in substandard housing. Those physical conditions are very good to spread quickly as the virus is contagious like a cold and promotes severe pneumonia. Then there are the structural problems; the Chinese health system was not well prepared for this epidemic and coping with an outbreak of any new disease is much harder than an outbreak of a known disease.

    Yup, apparently although parts of Wuhan are very modern and opulent-looking much of it is quite unhygienic. I know a guy who lived in Wuhan last year, he says at least once a week on his way to work he'd see someone doing a poo in the street.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    What's the basis for the statement that "(m)ore than 80% of patients (have) mild disease (and) will recover"? That tweeter has quoted Tedros Adhanom of the WHO but it is not clear whether these are Adhanom's words and in any case the word "will" seems unreasonably strong at this point.

    There is an ugly non-zero possibility that the Chinese government hit by falling growth and also having gained experience during this epidemic of new uses of command lines will decide to introduce Covid-19 into one or more of those Uighur camps.

    I don't think there is any evidence of malintent by the Chinese, there are very few cases in Tibet or Western China.

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Very good header, thank you AM.
    For the world economy the epidemic is a supply shock, which is to say that it can induce both recession and inflation at the same time. The wrong policy response would be to counter the recession by pumping up aggregate demand, either through monetary expansion or fiscal laxity, because that would just be inflationary - too much money chasing the too few goods. The right response would be to refrain from intervening and let production and economic activity recover gradually to the new post-epidemic equilibrium.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Let’s hope this new virus does not spread.

    Quite how we are going to attract all the NHS workers we will need under the government’s new immigration policy is another matter. The starting salaries for most of them are below the minimum salary required.

    See here - https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1230043859167666176?s=21

    It would also be interesting to know how “innovation in technology and automation” is going to help provide services in the social care sector and what this will mean for elderly sick patients. If wages have to raise will the government provide the additional funding needed to local authorities?

    Oh - and where is the plan for social care that Boris announced he had when he became PM?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Apart from one article, I've seen little mention of seasonality - the possibility it goes dormant after winter, and any pandemic only hits next winter. Any differences in transmission amongst and from the Chinese population in Singapore should be of great interest.

    The second is to what extent COVID, if it does become a pandemic, which does look unlikely to be on a scale worse than a decennial winter flu, becomes normalised, in other words, how much we start to think of it as like a bad flu rather than newer, more exotic, scarier. And, in turn, how much governments are able to normalise their response to it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited February 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    Let’s hope this new virus does not spread.

    Quite how we are going to attract all the NHS workers we will need under the government’s new immigration policy is another matter. The starting salaries for most of them are below the minimum salary required.

    twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1230043859167666176?s=21

    It would also be interesting to know how “innovation in technology and automation” is going to help provide services in the social care sector and what this will mean for elderly sick patients. If wages have to raise will the government provide the additional funding needed to local authorities?

    Oh - and where is the plan for social care that Boris announced he had when he became PM?

    Disingenious tweet....From the link itself, all those earning £24k like a nurse get enough points from the category of "designated shortage occupation".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited February 2020
    Dura_Ace said:



    I think being an MP is one of the hardest jobs there is.

    Hard in what sense? It suffers from precarity but that's just about every job now that we're living in toryworld.

    Genuinely hard jobs are roles like delivering disgusting food on a scooter in South London, working in a care home or being a biorobot in an Amazon distribution centre.
    In evidence I offer those (mainly safe seat Tory) MPs who carry on their previous career alongside being an MP, as proof that the job can be unbelievably cushy given the level of reward.

    Which isn't to say there aren't others working very long hours.
  • eristdoof said:


    The outbreak in Wuhan is serious, but in all likelihood the epidemic in this city is likely to be towards the most severe end of the viruses capabilities. The crisis hit in the middle of winter, in a large city with a high population density. I suspect that millions there live in substandard housing. Those physical conditions are very good to spread quickly as the virus is contagious like a cold and promotes severe pneumonia. Then there are the structural problems; the Chinese health system was not well prepared for this epidemic and coping with an outbreak of any new disease is much harder than an outbreak of a known disease.

    Yup, apparently although parts of Wuhan are very modern and opulent-looking much of it is quite unhygienic. I know a guy who lived in Wuhan last year, he says at least once a week on his way to work he'd see someone doing a poo in the street.

    When I first started going to Hong Kong 20 years or so ago, it was not unusual for restaurants to sell the slops they collected from unfinished plates and for used chopsticks/cutlery to be dropped into cold tea and taken out, wiped dry and reused without being washed. In the markets animal carcasses and live fish were chopped up by blokes in filthy clothes with fags hanging out of their mouths. Even now, if you hit the back streets standards of hygiene are well below what we’d expect. And Hong Kong is miles ahead of mainland China.

  • Cyclefree said:

    Let’s hope this new virus does not spread.

    Quite how we are going to attract all the NHS workers we will need under the government’s new immigration policy is another matter. The starting salaries for most of them are below the minimum salary required.

    See here - https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1230043859167666176?s=21

    It would also be interesting to know how “innovation in technology and automation” is going to help provide services in the social care sector and what this will mean for elderly sick patients. If wages have to raise will the government provide the additional funding needed to local authorities?

    Oh - and where is the plan for social care that Boris announced he had when he became PM?

    The government states that if the applicant earns less than the required minimum salary threshold, but no less than £20,480, they may still be able to enter if they have a job offer in a specific shortage occupation, or if they have a PhD relevant to the job
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited February 2020

    Cyclefree said:

    Let’s hope this new virus does not spread.

    Quite how we are going to attract all the NHS workers we will need under the government’s new immigration policy is another matter. The starting salaries for most of them are below the minimum salary required.

    See here - https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1230043859167666176?s=21

    It would also be interesting to know how “innovation in technology and automation” is going to help provide services in the social care sector and what this will mean for elderly sick patients. If wages have to raise will the government provide the additional funding needed to local authorities?

    Oh - and where is the plan for social care that Boris announced he had when he became PM?

    The government states that if the applicant earns less than the required minimum salary threshold, but no less than £20,480, they may still be able to enter if they have a job offer in a specific shortage occupation, or if they have a PhD relevant to the job
    On top of that, a nurse with 2-3 years experience, makes a minimum of £27k a year now in the NHS. Better skilled and more experienced nurses can make significantly more than that.

    https://www.unison.org.uk/content/uploads/2019/03/25502.pdf
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Let’s hope this new virus does not spread.

    Quite how we are going to attract all the NHS workers we will need under the government’s new immigration policy is another matter. The starting salaries for most of them are below the minimum salary required.

    twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1230043859167666176?s=21

    It would also be interesting to know how “innovation in technology and automation” is going to help provide services in the social care sector and what this will mean for elderly sick patients. If wages have to raise will the government provide the additional funding needed to local authorities?

    Oh - and where is the plan for social care that Boris announced he had when he became PM?

    Disingenious tweet....From the link itself, all those earning £24k like a nurse get enough points from the category of "designated shortage occupation".
    But not, for instance, in social care, which is one of the biggest domestic concerns we have and which has a huge impact on NHS care. The other three questions on this area have been carefully avoided, I notice.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,229
    Dura_Ace said:

    Hard in what sense? It suffers from precarity but that's just about every job now that we're living in toryworld.

    Genuinely hard jobs are roles like delivering disgusting food on a scooter in South London, working in a care home or being a biorobot in an Amazon distribution centre.

    Also call centre, cleaner, cashier, barista, traffic warden - long list.

    Most jobs that add real value are tough and low paid.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Seems like Boris has screwed this up. Not a surprise.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    IanB2 said:

    CD13 said:

    You're all a load of snowflakes. A 2% fatality rate, it's a pussy. Come and have a go if you think … etc. I'm over 70 now and I remember pneumonia being called "old man's friend".

    I thought WHO were only fretting about Africa - where the effects might be magnified. Whatever happened to the stiff upper lip?

    On my last two visits to sub-S Africa, there were Chinese people all over the place. It's hard to believe it isn't in Africa already; they just don't know it.
    Trump says it is always summer in Africa, so no need to worry......

    (well, he will tweet it!)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    HYUFD said:
    If Corbyn was still in charge, I'm sure he would jump at the chance of supporting the political wing of the IRA.
    He's still an MP. I doubt a new leader will silence him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,210

    OT if Warren gets 2% less than this and Sanders gets 3% less so nobody clears the 15% hurdle, what happens to the delegates???

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1229961052999254016

    Shipping up to Boston !
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,752
    IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    I think being an MP is one of the hardest jobs there is.

    Hard in what sense? It suffers from precarity but that's just about every job now that we're living in toryworld.

    Genuinely hard jobs are roles like delivering disgusting food on a scooter in South London, working in a care home or being a biorobot in an Amazon distribution centre.
    In evidence I offer those (mainly safe seat Tory) MPs who carry on their previous career alongside being an MP, as proof that the job can be unbelievably cushy given the level of reward.

    Which isn't to say there aren't others working very long hours.
    There are probably some long serving MPs in safe seats who take the foot off the pedal but most seem pretty driven. You don't go through all the aggro of being selected and elected to do nowt. And, with the rise of select committees, there are more opportunities to do stuff - don't have to be a frontbencher.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited February 2020
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Neutrals must be hoping for Trump vs Bloomberg.

    Wouldn't that just be Box Office?! Apart from the fact it's a serious business, it would be huge fun.

    While Bloomberg stands the better chance of winning, I'd much rather watch Buttigieg vs Trump.

    Hasn't Buttegieg fizzled out? He doesnt seem to be picking up all that much after his good start, what's his strategy now?
    I did warn this was likely when certain posters crowned Buttigieg the nominee after Iowa...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Jonathan said:

    Seems like Boris has screwed this up. Not a surprise.

    Surely he's been too busy screwing up our EU negotiations and screwing up the non-response to the flooding to screw up Coronavirus already as well?
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Let’s hope this new virus does not spread.

    Quite how we are going to attract all the NHS workers we will need under the government’s new immigration policy is another matter. The starting salaries for most of them are below the minimum salary required.

    twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1230043859167666176?s=21

    It would also be interesting to know how “innovation in technology and automation” is going to help provide services in the social care sector and what this will mean for elderly sick patients. If wages have to raise will the government provide the additional funding needed to local authorities?

    Oh - and where is the plan for social care that Boris announced he had when he became PM?

    Disingenious tweet....From the link itself, all those earning £24k like a nurse get enough points from the category of "designated shortage occupation".
    But not, for instance, in social care, which is one of the biggest domestic concerns we have and which has a huge impact on NHS care. The other three questions on this area have been carefully avoided, I notice.
    There is a predictable response from those who oppose Brexit but the devil will be in the detail and I have no doubt the legislation will be amended in some areas as it passes through the HOC

    However, it will be popular in the electorate and does put labour on the spot especially in those red wall seats that collapsed like a pack of cards in december

    Furthermore, this system levels the playing field from across the world and is similar to many other countries
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited February 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Let’s hope this new virus does not spread.

    Quite how we are going to attract all the NHS workers we will need under the government’s new immigration policy is another matter. The starting salaries for most of them are below the minimum salary required.

    twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1230043859167666176?s=21

    It would also be interesting to know how “innovation in technology and automation” is going to help provide services in the social care sector and what this will mean for elderly sick patients. If wages have to raise will the government provide the additional funding needed to local authorities?

    Oh - and where is the plan for social care that Boris announced he had when he became PM?

    Disingenious tweet....From the link itself, all those earning £24k like a nurse get enough points from the category of "designated shortage occupation".
    But not, for instance, in social care, which is one of the biggest domestic concerns we have and which has a huge impact on NHS care. The other three questions on this area have been carefully avoided, I notice.
    It is still disingenuous on a number of levels. It makes it sound like a whole range of trained healthcare professionals won't be eligible, when it isn't true.

    Now on care assistants, it is still disingenuous, they have picked the lowest of the low, zero years of experience salary. Again if slightly better trained with a couple years of experience, you make more than £20k+.

    On this they might have some point, all the other job titles they are deliberately being misleading as any of those jobs already make it (if there is a need) and if somebody is trained with some experience they easily make it. And my guess that is exactly why the levels have been set as they are.
  • Jonathan said:

    Seems like Boris has screwed this up. Not a surprise.

    No he has not
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,228
    Pro_Rata said:

    Apart from one article, I've seen little mention of seasonality - the possibility it goes dormant after winter, and any pandemic only hits next winter. Any differences in transmission amongst and from the Chinese population in Singapore should be of great interest.

    The second is to what extent COVID, if it does become a pandemic, which does look unlikely to be on a scale worse than a decennial winter flu, becomes normalised, in other words, how much we start to think of it as like a bad flu rather than newer, more exotic, scarier. And, in turn, how much governments are able to normalise their response to it.

    That would be very good news, as we'd likely have an effective vaccine by then.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    I think being an MP is one of the hardest jobs there is.

    Hard in what sense? It suffers from precarity but that's just about every job now that we're living in toryworld.

    Genuinely hard jobs are roles like delivering disgusting food on a scooter in South London, working in a care home or being a biorobot in an Amazon distribution centre.
    In evidence I offer those (mainly safe seat Tory) MPs who carry on their previous career alongside being an MP, as proof that the job can be unbelievably cushy given the level of reward.

    Which isn't to say there aren't others working very long hours.
    There are probably some long serving MPs in safe seats who take the foot off the pedal but most seem pretty driven. You don't go through all the aggro of being selected and elected to do nowt. And, with the rise of select committees, there are more opportunities to do stuff - don't have to be a frontbencher.
    My experience is in local government, where many councillors work hard, but there are certainly some who do very little in their patch and contribute very little on the council. I am sure it's the same in parliament. The common factor is that many of our politicians have career security arising from a voting system that grants them safe seats despite being useless and/or lazy.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Let’s hope this new virus does not spread.

    Quite how we are going to attract all the NHS workers we will need under the government’s new immigration policy is another matter. The starting salaries for most of them are below the minimum salary required.

    twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1230043859167666176?s=21

    It would also be interesting to know how “innovation in technology and automation” is going to help provide services in the social care sector and what this will mean for elderly sick patients. If wages have to raise will the government provide the additional funding needed to local authorities?

    Oh - and where is the plan for social care that Boris announced he had when he became PM?

    Disingenious tweet....From the link itself, all those earning £24k like a nurse get enough points from the category of "designated shortage occupation".
    But not, for instance, in social care, which is one of the biggest domestic concerns we have and which has a huge impact on NHS care. The other three questions on this area have been carefully avoided, I notice.
    There is a predictable response from those who oppose Brexit but the devil will be in the detail and I have no doubt the legislation will be amended in some areas as it passes through the HOC

    However, it will be popular in the electorate and does put labour on the spot especially in those red wall seats that collapsed like a pack of cards in december

    Furthermore, this system levels the playing field from across the world and is similar to many other countries
    Really - do you think the Tees Valley is going to be happy as I import skilled people in from Pakistan above the head of the locals (I would save myself £14,000+ a head minimum that way)..

    For an awful lot of jobs as of Jan 1st 2021 - £25,600 or something close to that is the maximum wage - accept it or we ship another worker in.
  • IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    I think being an MP is one of the hardest jobs there is.

    Hard in what sense? It suffers from precarity but that's just about every job now that we're living in toryworld.

    Genuinely hard jobs are roles like delivering disgusting food on a scooter in South London, working in a care home or being a biorobot in an Amazon distribution centre.
    In evidence I offer those (mainly safe seat Tory) MPs who carry on their previous career alongside being an MP, as proof that the job can be unbelievably cushy given the level of reward.

    Which isn't to say there aren't others working very long hours.
    There are those mps who also manage to fit in a role of being head of government (Also mainly safe seat Tory).
  • I don't have time to look at the maths, but here's a thought. When you consider a range of in work benefits like tax credits, housing benefit, etc, what is the break even point you have to make where you are paying more tax than benefits received?

    I wonder if it is roughly £20k a year?
  • eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Let’s hope this new virus does not spread.

    Quite how we are going to attract all the NHS workers we will need under the government’s new immigration policy is another matter. The starting salaries for most of them are below the minimum salary required.

    twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1230043859167666176?s=21

    It would also be interesting to know how “innovation in technology and automation” is going to help provide services in the social care sector and what this will mean for elderly sick patients. If wages have to raise will the government provide the additional funding needed to local authorities?

    Oh - and where is the plan for social care that Boris announced he had when he became PM?

    Disingenious tweet....From the link itself, all those earning £24k like a nurse get enough points from the category of "designated shortage occupation".
    But not, for instance, in social care, which is one of the biggest domestic concerns we have and which has a huge impact on NHS care. The other three questions on this area have been carefully avoided, I notice.
    There is a predictable response from those who oppose Brexit but the devil will be in the detail and I have no doubt the legislation will be amended in some areas as it passes through the HOC

    However, it will be popular in the electorate and does put labour on the spot especially in those red wall seats that collapsed like a pack of cards in december

    Furthermore, this system levels the playing field from across the world and is similar to many other countries
    Really - do you think the Tees Valley is going to be happy as I import skilled people in from Pakistan above the head of the locals (I would save myself £14,000+ a head minimum that way)..

    For an awful lot of jobs as of Jan 1st 2021 - £25,600 or something close to that is the maximum wage - accept it or we ship another worker in.
    Not sure I understand your point to be fair
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Btw, in the earlier discussion about the cruise ship and misdirecting comments about how it has supposedly become an 'incubator' for the virus, nobody seemed to notice the important implication of what has happened.

    You see currently the theory is that the coronavirus is primarily transmitted within droplets, so it cannot travel far from the host or infected surfaces. That people appear to be getting infected during quarantine implies it can aerosolize, allowing it to travel further and escape quarantine measures.

    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1229941167459950592
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Let’s hope this new virus does not spread.

    Quite how we are going to attract all the NHS workers we will need under the government’s new immigration policy is another matter. The starting salaries for most of them are below the minimum salary required.

    twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1230043859167666176?s=21

    It would also be interesting to know how “innovation in technology and automation” is going to help provide services in the social care sector and what this will mean for elderly sick patients. If wages have to raise will the government provide the additional funding needed to local authorities?

    Oh - and where is the plan for social care that Boris announced he had when he became PM?

    Disingenious tweet....From the link itself, all those earning £24k like a nurse get enough points from the category of "designated shortage occupation".
    But not, for instance, in social care, which is one of the biggest domestic concerns we have and which has a huge impact on NHS care. The other three questions on this area have been carefully avoided, I notice.
    It is still disingenuous on a number of levels. It makes it sound like a whole range of trained healthcare professionals won't be eligible, when it isn't true.

    Now on care assistants, it is still disingenuous, they have picked the lowest of the low, zero years of experience salary. Again if slightly better trained with a couple years of experience, you make more than £20k+.

    On this they might have some point, all the other job titles they are deliberately being misleading as any of those jobs already make it (if there is a need) and if somebody is trained with some experience they easily make it. And my guess that is exactly why the levels have been set as they are.

    I disagree on social care. It is a big issue because the pay is relatively low, especially outside the M25, and it’s an area that does not lend itself to automation. Over time, as other areas do automate, more Brits might move into the sector, but that will be a process. In the meantime, a solution will have to be found. Other areas I am far less concerned about - it will just mean higher prices.

    The other issue is that the black economy and illegal immigration will both almost inevitably increase. You’ll still be able to get into the UK very cheaply from Europe and will not need a visa, so a lot of people will come over and do cash in hand work until they’re caught.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,228
    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    @AlastairMeeks

    You should know better than to write this kind of fact-light scaremongering article on this platform

    Covid-19 is an nv coronavirus. These are well known. Zoonosis is a well understood phenomenon. Contagion in China was bad in one province because the Wuhan politicians were idiots.

    The Diamond Princess contagion rates are pleasingly low given that they are in a confirmed area with vectors that can transmit the virus between passengers

    In the U.K. 8 of the 9 infected individuals have already been released from hospital.

    Fundamentally this is less severe but more contagious than SARS. We are going to be fine.

    Given the French health minister yesterday said that the possibility of Covid-19 spreading worldwide was “both a working assumption and a credible risk", you will have to accept that your view is not universally held.
    And it's hardly "scaremongering" to present three different scenarios, all of which are within the bounds of possibility. (And Charles is just a little fact light himself in failing to note that only a fraction of the Diamond Princess passengers have actually been tested for the virus, while drawing conclusions about the 'pleasingly low contagion rates'.)
    I note I did Charles an injustice, as the majority of passengers do now appear to have been tested.
    http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13141065
    Among the 3,711 passengers and crew, 542 people were found to be infected with the new coronavirus as of Feb. 18, although nearly half of them displayed no symptoms.
    Authorities said 2,404 people took the virus test and that 25 people are in serious condition.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,210

    I don't have time to look at the maths, but here's a thought. When you consider a range of in work benefits like tax credits, housing benefit, etc, what is the break even point you have to make where you are paying more tax than benefits received?

    I wonder if it is roughly £20k a year?

    Dunno, never saw any of those even when I was on 10k a year. Is having kids the megabooster to in work benefits ?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    Jonathan said:

    Seems like Boris has screwed this up. Not a surprise.

    No he has not
    Big G! I think HYUFD might have hijacked your PB account! Unless you too have now joined the Boris fan club.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited February 2020
    For the Guardian wailing about Lithuanian nannies, it really does seem a very liberal point based system. Graduate level jobs pay £24-25k a year, and the government have taken the sensible step of allowing foreign born graduates from the UK 2 years to find such a job after their degree. It is hardly booting out Johnny Foreigner ASAP.

    Try to going to somewhere like Canada without a degree or a specialist skill and especially if over 40.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Spoiler - the immigration rules will be adjusted regularly to cope with shortages and surpluses..
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    TGOHF666 said:

    Spoiler - the immigration rules will be adjusted regularly to cope with shortages and surpluses..

    So today's headline is just smoke and mirrors?
  • For the Guardian wailing about Lithuanian nannies, it really does seem a very liberal point based system. Graduate level jobs pay £24-25k a year, and the government have taken the sensible step of allowing foreign born graduates from the UK 2 years to find such a job after their degree. It is hardly booting out Johnny Foreigner ASAP.

    Try to going to somewhere like Canada without a degree or a specialist skill and especially if over 40.

    But who will wash Tarquin’s car and who will care for baby Gemima?
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Let’s hope this new virus does not spread.

    Quite how we are going to attract all the NHS workers we will need under the government’s new immigration policy is another matter. The starting salaries for most of them are below the minimum salary required.

    twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1230043859167666176?s=21

    It would also be interesting to know how “innovation in technology and automation” is going to help provide services in the social care sector and what this will mean for elderly sick patients. If wages have to raise will the government provide the additional funding needed to local authorities?

    Oh - and where is the plan for social care that Boris announced he had when he became PM?

    Disingenious tweet....From the link itself, all those earning £24k like a nurse get enough points from the category of "designated shortage occupation".
    But not, for instance, in social care, which is one of the biggest domestic concerns we have and which has a huge impact on NHS care. The other three questions on this area have been carefully avoided, I notice.
    It is still disingenuous on a number of levels. It makes it sound like a whole range of trained healthcare professionals won't be eligible, when it isn't true.

    Now on care assistants, it is still disingenuous, they have picked the lowest of the low, zero years of experience salary. Again if slightly better trained with a couple years of experience, you make more than £20k+.

    On this they might have some point, all the other job titles they are deliberately being misleading as any of those jobs already make it (if there is a need) and if somebody is trained with some experience they easily make it. And my guess that is exactly why the levels have been set as they are.

    I disagree on social care. It is a big issue because the pay is relatively low, especially outside the M25, and it’s an area that does not lend itself to automation. Over time, as other areas do automate, more Brits might move into the sector, but that will be a process. In the meantime, a solution will have to be found. Other areas I am far less concerned about - it will just mean higher prices.

    The other issue is that the black economy and illegal immigration will both almost inevitably increase. You’ll still be able to get into the UK very cheaply from Europe and will not need a visa, so a lot of people will come over and do cash in hand work until they’re caught.

    Phew. For a moment I thought I won’t be able to buy a big issue.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    For the Guardian wailing about Lithuanian nannies, it really does seem a very liberal point based system. Graduate level jobs pay £24-25k a year, and the government have taken the sensible step of allowing foreign born graduates from the UK 2 years to find such a job after their degree. It is hardly booting out Johnny Foreigner ASAP.

    Try to going to somewhere like Canada without a degree or a specialist skill and especially if over 40.

    But who will wash Tarquin’s car and who will care for baby Gemima?
    Mummy.

    Oh, the horror......
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Let’s hope this new virus does not spread.

    Quite how we are going to attract all the NHS workers we will need under the government’s new immigration policy is another matter. The starting salaries for most of them are below the minimum salary required.

    twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1230043859167666176?s=21

    It would also be interesting to know how “innovation in technology and automation” is going to help provide services in the social care sector and what this will mean for elderly sick patients. If wages have to raise will the government provide the additional funding needed to local authorities?

    Oh - and where is the plan for social care that Boris announced he had when he became PM?

    Disingenious tweet....From the link itself, all those earning £24k like a nurse get enough points from the category of "designated shortage occupation".
    But not, for instance, in social care, which is one of the biggest domestic concerns we have and which has a huge impact on NHS care. The other three questions on this area have been carefully avoided, I notice.
    It is still disingenuous on a number of levels. It makes it sound like a whole range of trained healthcare professionals won't be eligible, when it isn't true.

    Now on care assistants, it is still disingenuous, they have picked the lowest of the low, zero years of experience salary. Again if slightly better trained with a couple years of experience, you make more than £20k+.

    On this they might have some point, all the other job titles they are deliberately being misleading as any of those jobs already make it (if there is a need) and if somebody is trained with some experience they easily make it. And my guess that is exactly why the levels have been set as they are.

    I disagree on social care. It is a big issue because the pay is relatively low, especially outside the M25, and it’s an area that does not lend itself to automation. Over time, as other areas do automate, more Brits might move into the sector, but that will be a process. In the meantime, a solution will have to be found. Other areas I am far less concerned about - it will just mean higher prices.

    The other issue is that the black economy and illegal immigration will both almost inevitably increase. You’ll still be able to get into the UK very cheaply from Europe and will not need a visa, so a lot of people will come over and do cash in hand work until they’re caught.

    I agree
  • For the Guardian wailing about Lithuanian nannies, it really does seem a very liberal point based system. Graduate level jobs pay £24-25k a year, and the government have taken the sensible step of allowing foreign born graduates from the UK 2 years to find such a job after their degree. It is hardly booting out Johnny Foreigner ASAP.

    Try to going to somewhere like Canada without a degree or a specialist skill and especially if over 40.

    But who will wash Tarquin’s car and who will care for baby Gemima?
    I notice that the tw@ts ripping up the ancient lawn in Cambridge the other day of course included an Amelia and a Tily...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bv_uXv04JBM
  • northernpowerhouse2northernpowerhouse2 Posts: 190
    edited February 2020

    I don't have time to look at the maths, but here's a thought. When you consider a range of in work benefits like tax credits, housing benefit, etc, what is the break even point you have to make where you are paying more tax than benefits received?

    I wonder if it is roughly £20k a year?

    It’s about £35k. But there’s caveats. If you have no family you draw no call on education. If you are young (and not pregnant) you again are unlikely to make material draw on health.
  • I don't have time to look at the maths, but here's a thought. When you consider a range of in work benefits like tax credits, housing benefit, etc, what is the break even point you have to make where you are paying more tax than benefits received?

    I wonder if it is roughly £20k a year?

    That will depend on where you live, won’t it?

  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,833

    eristdoof said:


    The outbreak in Wuhan is serious, but in all likelihood the epidemic in this city is likely to be towards the most severe end of the viruses capabilities. The crisis hit in the middle of winter, in a large city with a high population density. I suspect that millions there live in substandard housing. Those physical conditions are very good to spread quickly as the virus is contagious like a cold and promotes severe pneumonia. Then there are the structural problems; the Chinese health system was not well prepared for this epidemic and coping with an outbreak of any new disease is much harder than an outbreak of a known disease.

    Yup, apparently although parts of Wuhan are very modern and opulent-looking much of it is quite unhygienic. I know a guy who lived in Wuhan last year, he says at least once a week on his way to work he'd see someone doing a poo in the street.

    When I first started going to Hong Kong 20 years or so ago, it was not unusual for restaurants to sell the slops they collected from unfinished plates and for used chopsticks/cutlery to be dropped into cold tea and taken out, wiped dry and reused without being washed. In the markets animal carcasses and live fish were chopped up by blokes in filthy clothes with fags hanging out of their mouths. Even now, if you hit the back streets standards of hygiene are well below what we’d expect. And Hong Kong is miles ahead of mainland China.

    I've never been, but I understand that the Chinese are also very keen on spitting. Apparently there was a big campaign before the Beijing Olympics to stop people spitting in the street quite so much.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,910

    For the Guardian wailing about Lithuanian nannies, it really does seem a very liberal point based system. Graduate level jobs pay £24-25k a year, and the government have taken the sensible step of allowing foreign born graduates from the UK 2 years to find such a job after their degree. It is hardly booting out Johnny Foreigner ASAP.

    Try to going to somewhere like Canada without a degree or a specialist skill and especially if over 40.

    It's doing my head in that the sort of people who usually come up with stuff like "the minimum wage should be £15 per hour" are now moaning that we won't be able to import labour to do our crappiest lowest-paid jobs. It's almost like they want there to be millions of people exploited by Britain's worst employers.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Let’s hope this new virus does not spread.

    Quite how we are going to attract all the NHS workers we will need under the government’s new immigration policy is another matter. The starting salaries for most of them are below the minimum salary required.

    twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1230043859167666176?s=21

    It would also be interesting to know how “innovation in technology and automation” is going to help provide services in the social care sector and what this will mean for elderly sick patients. If wages have to raise will the government provide the additional funding needed to local authorities?

    Oh - and where is the plan for social care that Boris announced he had when he became PM?

    Disingenious tweet....From the link itself, all those earning £24k like a nurse get enough points from the category of "designated shortage occupation".
    But not, for instance, in social care, which is one of the biggest domestic concerns we have and which has a huge impact on NHS care. The other three questions on this area have been carefully avoided, I notice.
    There is a predictable response from those who oppose Brexit but the devil will be in the detail and I have no doubt the legislation will be amended in some areas as it passes through the HOC

    However, it will be popular in the electorate and does put labour on the spot especially in those red wall seats that collapsed like a pack of cards in december

    Furthermore, this system levels the playing field from across the world and is similar to many other countries
    Really - do you think the Tees Valley is going to be happy as I import skilled people in from Pakistan above the head of the locals (I would save myself £14,000+ a head minimum that way)..

    For an awful lot of jobs as of Jan 1st 2021 - £25,600 or something close to that is the maximum wage - accept it or we ship another worker in.
    Not sure I understand your point to be fair
    Why pay a smoggy in a tracksuit 30k for a job when you can import a foreigner for 26k?
  • Jonathan said:

    Seems like Boris has screwed this up. Not a surprise.

    No he has not
    Big G! I think HYUFD might have hijacked your PB account! Unless you too have now joined the Boris fan club.
    I have my reservation about Boris but I expect the new immigration policy to be popular but some amendments will be needed during it's progress through the HOC
  • TGOHF666 said:

    Spoiler - the immigration rules will be adjusted regularly to cope with shortages and surpluses..

    So today's headline is just smoke and mirrors?
    Depends which headlines you read
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Let’s hope this new virus does not spread.

    Quite how we are going to attract all the NHS workers we will need under the government’s new immigration policy is another matter. The starting salaries for most of them are below the minimum salary required.

    twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1230043859167666176?s=21

    It would also be interesting to know how “innovation in technology and automation” is going to help provide services in the social care sector and what this will mean for elderly sick patients. If wages have to raise will the government provide the additional funding needed to local authorities?

    Oh - and where is the plan for social care that Boris announced he had when he became PM?

    Disingenious tweet....From the link itself, all those earning £24k like a nurse get enough points from the category of "designated shortage occupation".
    But not, for instance, in social care, which is one of the biggest domestic concerns we have and which has a huge impact on NHS care. The other three questions on this area have been carefully avoided, I notice.
    There is a predictable response from those who oppose Brexit but the devil will be in the detail and I have no doubt the legislation will be amended in some areas as it passes through the HOC

    However, it will be popular in the electorate and does put labour on the spot especially in those red wall seats that collapsed like a pack of cards in december

    Furthermore, this system levels the playing field from across the world and is similar to many other countries
    Really - do you think the Tees Valley is going to be happy as I import skilled people in from Pakistan above the head of the locals (I would save myself £14,000+ a head minimum that way)..

    For an awful lot of jobs as of Jan 1st 2021 - £25,600 or something close to that is the maximum wage - accept it or we ship another worker in.
    Not sure I understand your point to be fair
    Why pay a smoggy in a tracksuit 30k for a job when you can import a foreigner for 26k?
    Correct, it's not difficult - I will just go abroad and bring someone in who is skilled rather than training up..
  • Pulpstar said:

    I don't have time to look at the maths, but here's a thought. When you consider a range of in work benefits like tax credits, housing benefit, etc, what is the break even point you have to make where you are paying more tax than benefits received?

    I wonder if it is roughly £20k a year?

    Dunno, never saw any of those even when I was on 10k a year. Is having kids the megabooster to in work benefits ?
    It used to be under old tax credits regime. Eastern European would come over, leave wife and two kids back home, do min wage job, pay pretty much no income tax but be able to double salary Income from child tax credits, working tax credits and child benefit.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Jonathan said:

    Seems like Boris has screwed this up. Not a surprise.

    No he has not
    Big G! I think HYUFD might have hijacked your PB account! Unless you too have now joined the Boris fan club.
    At one point he was going to quit tory party if Boris became leader and now look at him!

    There are weeks where decades happen, as Father Lenin taught us...
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    TGOHF666 said:

    Spoiler - the immigration rules will be adjusted regularly to cope with shortages and surpluses..

    So today's headline is just smoke and mirrors?
    It’s a ballpark figure for the first year.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    Jonathan said:

    Seems like Boris has screwed this up. Not a surprise.

    No he has not
    Big G! I think HYUFD might have hijacked your PB account! Unless you too have now joined the Boris fan club.
    I have my reservation about Boris but I expect the new immigration policy to be popular but some amendments will be needed during it's progress through the HOC
    That is one of my many beefs with Boris. The key indicator is not does it work? but is it popular?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited February 2020

    I don't have time to look at the maths, but here's a thought. When you consider a range of in work benefits like tax credits, housing benefit, etc, what is the break even point you have to make where you are paying more tax than benefits received?

    I wonder if it is roughly £20k a year?

    That will depend on where you live, won’t it?

    Well obviously and how many kids etc. I just wonder if you live outside London, have a kid, does ~£20k sound about right for when you start paying in more than you receive in the more direct instant benefits i.e. before you consider potential pension, cost to NHS, school for you kid.

    Instinctively, it is probably more than that, as £20k a year results in £1,364 in NI, £1,498 in IC, so roughly £3k a year in direct taxation.

    Just trying to get a handle on why the £20k <-> £25k a year levels were picked.
  • Mail:

    "Tory chancellor Ken Clarke predicted Mr Cummings will not last long as the PM's top adviser unless he 'vanishes' and returns to being a 'back room' operator.

    Mr Clarke suggested the 'exotic aide' will only survive in the job if his 'personal appearances stop'."

    Gone by the summer I reckon.
  • Cookie said:

    eristdoof said:


    The outbreak in Wuhan is serious, but in all likelihood the epidemic in this city is likely to be towards the most severe end of the viruses capabilities. The crisis hit in the middle of winter, in a large city with a high population density. I suspect that millions there live in substandard housing. Those physical conditions are very good to spread quickly as the virus is contagious like a cold and promotes severe pneumonia. Then there are the structural problems; the Chinese health system was not well prepared for this epidemic and coping with an outbreak of any new disease is much harder than an outbreak of a known disease.

    Yup, apparently although parts of Wuhan are very modern and opulent-looking much of it is quite unhygienic. I know a guy who lived in Wuhan last year, he says at least once a week on his way to work he'd see someone doing a poo in the street.

    When I first started going to Hong Kong 20 years or so ago, it was not unusual for restaurants to sell the slops they collected from unfinished plates and for used chopsticks/cutlery to be dropped into cold tea and taken out, wiped dry and reused without being washed. In the markets animal carcasses and live fish were chopped up by blokes in filthy clothes with fags hanging out of their mouths. Even now, if you hit the back streets standards of hygiene are well below what we’d expect. And Hong Kong is miles ahead of mainland China.

    I've never been, but I understand that the Chinese are also very keen on spitting. Apparently there was a big campaign before the Beijing Olympics to stop people spitting in the street quite so much.

    Yep, spitting is a very big thing.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Spoiler - the immigration rules will be adjusted regularly to cope with shortages and surpluses..

    So today's headline is just smoke and mirrors?
    It’s a ballpark figure for the first year.

    I suspect your spell checker has changed bollocks to ballpark.
  • Jonathan said:

    Seems like Boris has screwed this up. Not a surprise.

    No he has not
    Big G! I think HYUFD might have hijacked your PB account! Unless you too have now joined the Boris fan club.
    I have my reservation about Boris but I expect the new immigration policy to be popular but some amendments will be needed during it's progress through the HOC
    Looking forward to Home Office administering this. It's track record is "not fit for purpose" to quote a long forgotten occupant.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,037

    HYUFD said:
    If Corbyn was still in charge, I'm sure he would jump at the chance of supporting the political wing of the IRA.
    He's still an MP. I doubt a new leader will silence him.
    Perhaps his words will have to be voiced by an actor?
  • Jonathan said:

    Seems like Boris has screwed this up. Not a surprise.

    No he has not
    Big G! I think HYUFD might have hijacked your PB account! Unless you too have now joined the Boris fan club.
    I have my reservation about Boris but I expect the new immigration policy to be popular but some amendments will be needed during it's progress through the HOC
    That is one of my many beefs with Boris. The key indicator is not does it work? but is it popular?
    It was in the manifesto and will work with some adjustments
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Thinks that jumps out at me from the header is that cruise ships are full of old people so we shouldn’t extrapolate from the number of the passengers on the Princess who have caught the virus to the wider world
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Spoiler - the immigration rules will be adjusted regularly to cope with shortages and surpluses..

    So today's headline is just smoke and mirrors?
    It’s a ballpark figure for the first year.

    I suspect your spell checker has changed bollocks to ballpark.
    Given the policy isn’t coming into effect for 11 months you’d have to be a complete Long-Bailey to freeze the details now.
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    I think being an MP is one of the hardest jobs there is.

    Hard in what sense? It suffers from precarity but that's just about every job now that we're living in toryworld.

    Genuinely hard jobs are roles like delivering disgusting food on a scooter in South London, working in a care home or being a biorobot in an Amazon distribution centre.
    In evidence I offer those (mainly safe seat Tory) MPs who carry on their previous career alongside being an MP, as proof that the job can be unbelievably cushy given the level of reward.

    Which isn't to say there aren't others working very long hours.
    There are probably some long serving MPs in safe seats who take the foot off the pedal but most seem pretty driven. You don't go through all the aggro of being selected and elected to do nowt. And, with the rise of select committees, there are more opportunities to do stuff - don't have to be a frontbencher.
    My experience is in local government, where many councillors work hard, but there are certainly some who do very little in their patch and contribute very little on the council. I am sure it's the same in parliament. The common factor is that many of our politicians have career security arising from a voting system that grants them safe seats despite being useless and/or lazy.
    Safe seats are not the problem with the current voting system. The problem lies in those seats where say 65% of the voters don't get the MP they want.
  • Jonathan said:

    Seems like Boris has screwed this up. Not a surprise.

    No he has not
    Big G! I think HYUFD might have hijacked your PB account! Unless you too have now joined the Boris fan club.
    I have my reservation about Boris but I expect the new immigration policy to be popular but some amendments will be needed during it's progress through the HOC
    Looking forward to Home Office administering this. It's track record is "not fit for purpose" to quote a long forgotten occupant.
    I do agree administration will be difficult in the early years
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2020

    Anyway, this morning's ringside seat is watching Matthew Goodwin and Rob Ford, co-authors of "Revolt On The Right", knocking seven bells out of each other on Twitter about immigration. It's getting perilously close to History Today.

    It’s quite possible all that will happen with the new immigration laws is that the same number of people are happy and unhappy as before, except the sides will have switched. Hope so, as that’s the only reason I voted Leave.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    I'm a little skeptical of those humongous projections.

    It does look rather like the doom-and-gloom 15 year projections / claims from the Remain Campaigners, based on the assumption that nothing was going to change.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    isam said:

    Thinks that jumps out at me from the header is that cruise ships are full of old people so we shouldn’t extrapolate from the number of the passengers on the Princess who have caught the virus to the wider world

    The difference is not in infection rates, it's in severity. It's not like young people don't contract the virus, it just doesn't generally cause symptoms.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,229
    isam said:

    Thinks that jumps out at me from the header is that cruise ships are full of old people so we shouldn’t extrapolate from the number of the passengers on the Princess who have caught the virus to the wider world.

    Yes, point.

    But look it's IMMIGRATION day. The new post Brexit policy.

    And you are one of the precious few Leavers (on here) who openly recognizes that a desire for tighter borders was probably the main driver of that seismic 2016 Referendum result.

    So, big question, the biggest -

    Do you like the new regime? Are you happy now?
  • kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Thinks that jumps out at me from the header is that cruise ships are full of old people so we shouldn’t extrapolate from the number of the passengers on the Princess who have caught the virus to the wider world.

    Yes, point.

    But look it's IMMIGRATION day. The new post Brexit policy.

    And you are one of the precious few Leavers (on here) who openly recognizes that a desire for tighter borders was probably the main driver of that seismic 2016 Referendum result.

    So, big question, the biggest -

    Do you like the new regime? Are you happy now?
    Like me, he has probably been gloriously happy since June 2016.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,229

    Mail:

    "Tory chancellor Ken Clarke predicted Mr Cummings will not last long as the PM's top adviser unless he 'vanishes' and returns to being a 'back room' operator.

    Mr Clarke suggested the 'exotic aide' will only survive in the job if his 'personal appearances stop'."

    Gone by the summer I reckon.

    Yes, for his sake we need to stop seeing him. It would also be nice for us if we could stop seeing him.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Let’s hope this new virus does not spread.

    Quite how we are going to attract all the NHS workers we will need under the government’s new immigration policy is another matter. The starting salaries for most of them are below the minimum salary required.

    twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1230043859167666176?s=21

    It would also be interesting to know how “innovation in technology and automation” is going to help provide services in the social care sector and what this will mean for elderly sick patients. If wages have to raise will the government provide the additional funding needed to local authorities?

    Oh - and where is the plan for social care that Boris announced he had when he became PM?

    Disingenious tweet....From the link itself, all those earning £24k like a nurse get enough points from the category of "designated shortage occupation".
    But not, for instance, in social care, which is one of the biggest domestic concerns we have and which has a huge impact on NHS care. The other three questions on this area have been carefully avoided, I notice.
    There is a predictable response from those who oppose Brexit but the devil will be in the detail and I have no doubt the legislation will be amended in some areas as it passes through the HOC

    However, it will be popular in the electorate and does put labour on the spot especially in those red wall seats that collapsed like a pack of cards in december

    Furthermore, this system levels the playing field from across the world and is similar to many other countries
    Social care is a big issue. Wages are low. If they are low, the new immigration system will not help.

    If wages have to rise, how will councils fund social care? How will private clients?

    If the funding is not there, immigrant labour is not available then the brutal reality is that social care will not be available for those who need it.

    An answer to these practical questions would be helpful.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,228
    It will also be instructive to see how many (if any) of those who tested negative go on to develop the disease:

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/19/national/diamond-princess-covid19-quarantine/#.Xk0Ksi10cW8
    ... Japan will ask those with negative results to provide their contact information and will give them instructions for what to do if they start feeling sick, the ministry’s notice said, while foreign nationals who have contracted the virus are set to stay in Japan for treatment.

    A male Twitter user in his 30s aboard the ship who goes by the handle of @daxa_tw said he was in limbo. “I don’t know when I’ll be getting off because my test results haven’t come back yet,” he said in a direct message.

    The measures may not be enough to curtail the virus that has spread rapidly throughout the ship, health officials said. With people aboard hailing from more than 50 countries, the end of the quarantine raises worries the vessel could become the source of a fresh wave of global infections.

    “It’s entirely possible to get tested, be negative and get on an airplane and be positive once you land,” said Keiji Fukuda, the director of the School of Public Health at Hong Kong University and a former World Health Organization official who has led responses to outbreaks. “That’s just how infections work.”

    Fukuda says it’s prudent for countries to quarantine passengers even though they have been under isolation and test results came back negative. “It’s providing a high level of safety for the place they’re being brought back to.”

    The risk became apparent after the U.S. evacuated more than 300 of its nationals over the weekend and received notice during the process that 14 passengers, who had been tested two to three days earlier, had contracted the virus...
This discussion has been closed.