politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the papers are treating the Javid sacking

https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1228228363568865281?s=20

https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1228029110246526976?s=20

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Casino_Royale said:

Are there any bookies offering a price on Al Gore to be Democratic Nominee, or Next President?

1000/1 against Gore next president on Betfair exchange, where sfaict he is not quoted as Democrat nominee.

Ah, thanks.

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1228115558673125377?s=20

It's an enduring mystery as to why Biden utterly tanks in real polls, but holds up surprising well (even now) in national polls.

IanB2 said:

tlg86 said:

Cyclefree said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Cyclefree said:

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

Black_Rook said:

Snip

Except our more successful governments tend to be team efforts. Governing is hard and there is far too much for one person to be responsible for all the ideas, innovations and direction of travel. A definite weakness with Boris is his lack of a close cadres of like minded friends who can work together for a common objective. Eventually it will weaken him. But not yet.

If there is a joint number 10/11 economic team isn't that more likely, not less likely, to result in a team effort to pull in the same direction?

Cummings giving himself the economy to run as well as everything else is a bold move. Apparently, he’ll be negotiating Brexit too!

He has managed to consolidate a lot of power around himself, and has eliminated rivals and threats. Any Russophile can recognise his man of steel approach.

I cannot see Johnson having the backbone to sack him, so it is not clear how he goes.

Take Back Control...

Yes, indeed. We have taken back control from EU bureaucrats and given it to a scruffy English one instead.

British one. And as far as I am concerned, that's still a win.

A bureaucrat who is not elected and whom you can’t vote out of power and who is not answerable to our elected representatives and whom it is not possible to scrutinise.

A win, you say?

What low expectations you have.

I'm sorry, but Cummings can very much be voted out of power thanks to FPTP. Again, it's not the Tories' fault that the Labour Party is an utter mess.

We can only watch and hope that at the appropriate time those lucky voters living in marginal seats make the right decision.

By that do you mean they should vote according to the actual experience of the government, which we won't know for 2 or 3 years balanced against the assessment of the alternative?

Or do you mean just vote tribally and in a blinkered or prejudiced unthinking way for your favoured outcome?

Cyclefree said:

tlg86 said:

Cyclefree said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Cyclefree said:

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

Black_Rook said:

It goes back an awful lot further than that. Looking back over the decades, people are so used to the concept of the powerful Chancellor as right-hand man and/or check on the Prime Minister (Osborne, Brown, Clarke, Lawson, Howe, etc etc) that the notion of the Chancellor being just another cabinet minister feels quite alien. But that's what the situation would now appear to be.

We need to dispense with the idea of No.10 and No.11 acting as a duumvirate and treat Boris Johnson as a more presidential figure. We ought instead to assume that Rishi Sunak's job will be to look after the books and to develop taxation and borrowing options in line with the Prime Minister's needs and priorities, and not to co-determine those needs and priorities himself.

Except our more successful governments tend to be team efforts. Governing is hard and there is far too much for one person to be responsible for all the ideas, innovations and direction of travel. A definite weakness with Boris is his lack of a close cadres of like minded friends who can work together for a common objective. Eventually it will weaken him. But not yet.

If there is a joint number 10/11 economic team isn't that more likely, not less likely, to result in a team effort to pull in the same direction?

Cummings giving himself the economy to run as well as everything else is a bold move. Apparently, he’ll be negotiating Brexit too!

He has managed to consolidate a lot of power around himself, and has eliminated rivals and threats. Any Russophile can recognise his man of steel approach.

I cannot see Johnson having the backbone to sack him, so it is not clear how he goes.

Take Back Control...

Yes, indeed. We have taken back control from EU bureaucrats and given it to a scruffy English one instead.

British one. And as far as I am concerned, that's still a win.

A bureaucrat who is not elected and whom you can’t vote out of power and who is not answerable to our elected representatives and whom it is not possible to scrutinise.

A win, you say?

What low expectations you have.

I'm sorry, but Cummings can very much be voted out of power thanks to FPTP. Again, it's not the Tories' fault that the Labour Party is an utter mess.

What constituency is he an MP for? Remind me.

Oh common, this is hardly a new occurrence. How could I get rid of the unelected Alastair Campbell or Andy Coulson or Steve Hilton?

philiph said:

IanB2 said:

tlg86 said:

Cyclefree said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Cyclefree said:

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

Black_Rook said:

Snip

Except our more successful governments tend to be team efforts. Governing is hard and there is far too much for one person to be responsible for all the ideas, innovations and direction of travel. A definite weakness with Boris is his lack of a close cadres of like minded friends who can work together for a common objective. Eventually it will weaken him. But not yet.

If there is a joint number 10/11 economic team isn't that more likely, not less likely, to result in a team effort to pull in the same direction?

Cummings giving himself the economy to run as well as everything else is a bold move. Apparently, he’ll be negotiating Brexit too!

He has managed to consolidate a lot of power around himself, and has eliminated rivals and threats. Any Russophile can recognise his man of steel approach.

I cannot see Johnson having the backbone to sack him, so it is not clear how he goes.

Take Back Control...

Yes, indeed. We have taken back control from EU bureaucrats and given it to a scruffy English one instead.

British one. And as far as I am concerned, that's still a win.

A bureaucrat who is not elected and whom you can’t vote out of power and who is not answerable to our elected representatives and whom it is not possible to scrutinise.

A win, you say?

What low expectations you have.

I'm sorry, but Cummings can very much be voted out of power thanks to FPTP. Again, it's not the Tories' fault that the Labour Party is an utter mess.

We can only watch and hope that at the appropriate time those lucky voters living in marginal seats make the right decision.

By that do you mean they should vote according to the actual experience of the government, which we won't know for 2 or 3 years balanced against the assessment of the alternative?

Or do you mean just vote tribally and in a blinkered or prejudiced unthinking way for your favoured outcome?

Neither. It was a challenge to those who hold up FPTP as a paragon of accountability to the voters.

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1228029110246526976?s=20

Does he mean the Chattering Class?

Foxy said:

TGOHF666 said:

SouthamObserver said:

TGOHF666 said:

The idea to cut pension relief for those in the 40% band was crass and stupid.

He is no loss.

At some point the spending Cummings is planning will have to be paid for. Tax rises will be a part of that. There is no magic money tree.

Fat cat public sector defined benefit pensions would be a better place to start if you are dumb enough to want to tax pensions.

It's been done with the pensions taper, with the small side effect of a staffing crisis.

How much indexed linked pension does a public sector nominal £100,000 get? How much would a private sector pension pay for the same amount?

My wife and I have been dealing with a couple of health issues over the last few days but I have browsed PB from time to time.

My impressions are that Boris has moved leading brexiteers into his cabinet and taken complete control. I have no idea how malign or otherwise Cummings is but he has been highly successful in brexit and getting Boris into power

The noises coming out of the EU give the impression that nothing has changed and that they can still control the economic direction of the UK and hold it close but this cabinet appears to me to be ready to virtually no deal to break the link

On the domestic situation Boris has turned left and is about to open the spending taps trampling all over labour and making it very difficult for labour to get a hearing

Of course the opposition to Boris and Cummings on here comes from the usual suspects who would never be converted to the Boris way but then that is not important as the only people who matter to Boris are the voters who, for now at least, seem to be very supportive

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1228115558673125377?s=20

It's an enduring mystery as to why Biden utterly tanks in real polls, but holds up surprising well (even now) in national polls.

The black vote and deep South, as this poll suggests Biden is still likely to win South Carolina

isam said:

Is it ‘There’s been a reshuffle and the quality of the cabinet isn’t what it was in my day’ Day already?

Not for me. I'm still keenly (and maybe forlornly) anticipating that 'My Day' is in the future.

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

RBS group to become Natwest group

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51500062

It has always been Natwest

It is to be renamed Natwest group though and lose the RBS name, despite the fact RBS originally bought Natwest

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

TGOHF666 said:

The idea to cut pension relief for those in the 40% band was crass and stupid.

He is no loss.

At some point the spending Cummings is planning will have to be paid for. Tax rises will be a part of that. There is no magic money tree.

Nah, it will be deficit spending by the bucket load, indeed tax cuts for higher earners are likely.

Yes, Javid was contemplating a mansion tax and cut to pension relief to cut the deficit, now he is gone it will be Berlusconi style tax cuts and more spending, neither Boris or Cummings care about deficits

Mrs Thatcher would have kicked their arses and quite rightly said neither Boris Johnson or Dominic Cummings are Tories.

They are more populist conservatives

kamski said:

Another poll showing Sanders as the Dem candidate polling best against Trump. This time 2 behind in Texas, which is admittedly unlikely to be the tipping point state, but there's been a bunch of recent polls showing Sanders as at least no worse than any other likely candidate.

So why are so many people saying that Democrats would be crazy to choose Sanders instead of - who? The comparison with Corbyn is also not valid, as Corbyn pretty much always polled really really badly.

Probably the worst outcome for Dems would be if Sanders gets a plurality of delegates but no majority, and then the convention chooses someone Sanders beat in the actual primaries. Bloomberg makes this quite a likely situation. But it always felt like his second choice (after Bloomberg becoming president) was always Trump winning again, no wonder a majority of Dems don't like the guy.

Corbyn did not poll so badly in 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My wife and I have been dealing with a couple of health issues over the last few days but I have browsed PB from time to time.

My impressions are that Boris has moved leading brexiteers into his cabinet and taken complete control. I have no idea how malign or otherwise Cummings is but he has been highly successful in brexit and getting Boris into power

The noises coming out of the EU give the impression that nothing has changed and that they can still control the economic direction of the UK and hold it close but this cabinet appears to me to be ready to virtually no deal to break the link

On the domestic situation Boris has turned left and is about to open the spending taps trampling all over labour and making it very difficult for labour to get a hearing

Of course the opposition to Boris and Cummings on here comes from the usual suspects who would never be converted to the Boris way but then that is not important as the only people who matter to Boris are the voters who, for now at least, seem to be very supportive

No Deal and ramped up spending does indeed seem to be the plan. F**k Business indeed!

It will be interesting to see how much of our exports continues to be gold bullion over the next year.

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1228243338823917569?s=09

ClippP said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Cyclefree said:

A bureaucrat who is not elected and whom you can’t vote out of power and who is not answerable to our elected representatives and whom it is not possible to scrutinise.

A win, you say?

What low expectations you have.

He comes considerably cheaper than the EU, and is a lot easier to dispense with when his services are no longer required.

But meanwhile his influence is 100% negative.

I don't agree, but at any rate, very little change there either.

tlg86 said:

Cyclefree said:

tlg86 said:

Cyclefree said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Cyclefree said:

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

Except our more successful governments tend to be team efforts. Governing is hard and there is far too much for one person to be responsible for all the ideas, innovations and direction of travel. A definite weakness with Boris is his lack of a close cadres of like minded friends who can work together for a common objective. Eventually it will weaken him. But not yet.

If there is a joint number 10/11 economic team isn't that more likely, not less likely, to result in a team effort to pull in the same direction?

Cummings giving himself the economy to run as well as everything else is a bold move. Apparently, he’ll be negotiating Brexit too!

He has managed to consolidate a lot of power around himself, and has eliminated rivals and threats. Any Russophile can recognise his man of steel approach.

I cannot see Johnson having the backbone to sack him, so it is not clear how he goes.

Take Back Control...

Yes, indeed. We have taken back control from EU bureaucrats and given it to a scruffy English one instead.

British one. And as far as I am concerned, that's still a win.

A bureaucrat who is not elected and whom you can’t vote out of power and who is not answerable to our elected representatives and whom it is not possible to scrutinise.

A win, you say?

What low expectations you have.

I'm sorry, but Cummings can very much be voted out of power thanks to FPTP. Again, it's not the Tories' fault that the Labour Party is an utter mess.

What constituency is he an MP for? Remind me.

Oh common, this is hardly a new occurrence. How could I get rid of the unelected Alastair Campbell or Andy Coulson or Steve Hilton?

Or Bernard Ingham and Marcia Falkender.

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My wife and I have been dealing with a couple of health issues over the last few days but I have browsed PB from time to time.

My impressions are that Boris has moved leading brexiteers into his cabinet and taken complete control. I have no idea how malign or otherwise Cummings is but he has been highly successful in brexit and getting Boris into power

The noises coming out of the EU give the impression that nothing has changed and that they can still control the economic direction of the UK and hold it close but this cabinet appears to me to be ready to virtually no deal to break the link

On the domestic situation Boris has turned left and is about to open the spending taps trampling all over labour and making it very difficult for labour to get a hearing

Of course the opposition to Boris and Cummings on here comes from the usual suspects who would never be converted to the Boris way but then that is not important as the only people who matter to Boris are the voters who, for now at least, seem to be very supportive

No Deal and ramped up spending does indeed seem to be the plan. F**k Business indeed!

It will be interesting to see how much of our exports continues to be gold bullion over the next year.

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1228243338823917569?s=09

Probably not a great deal.
It's more that these very large and apparently inexplicable swings in the cross border movement of gold massively distort the monthly headline trade figures.

kamski said:

Another poll showing Sanders as the Dem candidate polling best against Trump. This time 2 behind in Texas, which is admittedly unlikely to be the tipping point state, but there's been a bunch of recent polls showing Sanders as at least no worse than any other likely candidate.

So why are so many people saying that Democrats would be crazy to choose Sanders instead of - who? The comparison with Corbyn is also not valid, as Corbyn pretty much always polled really really badly.

Probably the worst outcome for Dems would be if Sanders gets a plurality of delegates but no majority, and then the convention chooses someone Sanders beat in the actual primaries. Bloomberg makes this quite a likely situation. But it always felt like his second choice (after Bloomberg becoming president) was always Trump winning again, no wonder a majority of Dems don't like the guy.

Bloomberg is spending $millions attacking Trump. He isn't attacking any of his Democrat competitors. It feels personal against Trump.

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My wife and I have been dealing with a couple of health issues over the last few days but I have browsed PB from time to time.

My impressions are that Boris has moved leading brexiteers into his cabinet and taken complete control. I have no idea how malign or otherwise Cummings is but he has been highly successful in brexit and getting Boris into power

The noises coming out of the EU give the impression that nothing has changed and that they can still control the economic direction of the UK and hold it close but this cabinet appears to me to be ready to virtually no deal to break the link

On the domestic situation Boris has turned left and is about to open the spending taps trampling all over labour and making it very difficult for labour to get a hearing

Of course the opposition to Boris and Cummings on here comes from the usual suspects who would never be converted to the Boris way but then that is not important as the only people who matter to Boris are the voters who, for now at least, seem to be very supportive

No Deal and ramped up spending does indeed seem to be the plan. F**k Business indeed!

It will be interesting to see how much of our exports continues to be gold bullion over the next year.

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1228243338823917569?s=09

Probably not a great deal.
It's more that these very large and apparently inexplicable swings in the cross border movement of gold massively distort the monthly headline trade figures.

For those who cannot pass the paywall:

"That this was almost entirely down to a mysterious movement of gold bars was seemingly lost on Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, who promptly issued a press release hailing a “record-breaking year for UK exports”.

Well, yes, but only if you include those dodgy gold figures. Exclude them and Britain’s exports are not growing by 5 per cent, as she proclaimed, but by 2.9 per cent — the weakest rate since 2015. Exclude them and actually, far from hitting a new high, exports as a percentage of national income fell last year."

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My wife and I have been dealing with a couple of health issues over the last few days but I have browsed PB from time to time.

My impressions are that Boris has moved leading brexiteers into his cabinet and taken complete control. I have no idea how malign or otherwise Cummings is but he has been highly successful in brexit and getting Boris into power

The noises coming out of the EU give the impression that nothing has changed and that they can still control the economic direction of the UK and hold it close but this cabinet appears to me to be ready to virtually no deal to break the link

On the domestic situation Boris has turned left and is about to open the spending taps trampling all over labour and making it very difficult for labour to get a hearing

Of course the opposition to Boris and Cummings on here comes from the usual suspects who would never be converted to the Boris way but then that is not important as the only people who matter to Boris are the voters who, for now at least, seem to be very supportive

No Deal and ramped up spending does indeed seem to be the plan. F**k Business indeed!

It will be interesting to see how much of our exports continues to be gold bullion over the next year.

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1228243338823917569?s=09

Sterling has strengthened considerably in the past few weeks. Whoever bought the gold might have bought while Sterling was still relatively weak i.e. a punt on Sterling as well as the $ gold price. They've done well on both counts.

Barnesian said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My wife and I have been dealing with a couple of health issues over the last few days but I have browsed PB from time to time.

My impressions are that Boris has moved leading brexiteers into his cabinet and taken complete control. I have no idea how malign or otherwise Cummings is but he has been highly successful in brexit and getting Boris into power

The noises coming out of the EU give the impression that nothing has changed and that they can still control the economic direction of the UK and hold it close but this cabinet appears to me to be ready to virtually no deal to break the link

On the domestic situation Boris has turned left and is about to open the spending taps trampling all over labour and making it very difficult for labour to get a hearing

Of course the opposition to Boris and Cummings on here comes from the usual suspects who would never be converted to the Boris way but then that is not important as the only people who matter to Boris are the voters who, for now at least, seem to be very supportive

No Deal and ramped up spending does indeed seem to be the plan. F**k Business indeed!

It will be interesting to see how much of our exports continues to be gold bullion over the next year.

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1228243338823917569?s=09

Sterling has strengthened considerably in the past few weeks. Whoever bought the gold might have bought while Sterling was still relatively weak i.e. a punt on Sterling as well as the $ gold price. They've done well on both counts.

There's no evidence to show that anyone actually bought it, AFAIK. It's quite possible it was simply redomiciled (or whatever the technical terms is for bullion) by whoever owns it.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Cyclefree said:

A bureaucrat who is not elected and whom you can’t vote out of power and who is not answerable to our elected representatives and whom it is not possible to scrutinise.

A win, you say?

What low expectations you have.

He comes considerably cheaper than the EU, and is a lot easier to dispense with when his services are no longer required.

This is a good day to be having this argument, because the unlelected Von der Leyen is in trouble over, er, her alleged overuse of unelected SpAds (or SpAd equiavelents) in the German MoD:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-caught-in-scandal-of-payments-and-wiped-phones-38s8jg3c7

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My wife and I have been dealing with a couple of health issues over the last few days but I have browsed PB from time to time.

My impressions are that Boris has moved leading brexiteers into his cabinet and taken complete control. I have no idea how malign or otherwise Cummings is but he has been highly successful in brexit and getting Boris into power

The noises coming out of the EU give the impression that nothing has changed and that they can still control the economic direction of the UK and hold it close but this cabinet appears to me to be ready to virtually no deal to break the link

On the domestic situation Boris has turned left and is about to open the spending taps trampling all over labour and making it very difficult for labour to get a hearing

Of course the opposition to Boris and Cummings on here comes from the usual suspects who would never be converted to the Boris way but then that is not important as the only people who matter to Boris are the voters who, for now at least, seem to be very supportive

No Deal and ramped up spending does indeed seem to be the plan. F**k Business indeed!

It will be interesting to see how much of our exports continues to be gold bullion over the next year.

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1228243338823917569?s=09

Probably not a great deal.
It's more that these very large and apparently inexplicable swings in the cross border movement of gold massively distort the monthly headline trade figures.

For those who cannot pass the paywall:

"That this was almost entirely down to a mysterious movement of gold bars was seemingly lost on Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, who promptly issued a press release hailing a “record-breaking year for UK exports”.

Well, yes, but only if you include those dodgy gold figures. Exclude them and Britain’s exports are not growing by 5 per cent, as she proclaimed, but by 2.9 per cent — the weakest rate since 2015. Exclude them and actually, far from hitting a new high, exports as a percentage of national income fell last year."

UK exports:

2013 £534bn
2014 £531bn
2015 £530bn
2016 £567bn
2017 £629bn
2018 £656bn
2019 £689bn

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbh/pn2

The comings and goings of some gold bars are not a material amount of the total.

So Truss was correct in saying that 2019 was a record breaking year for UK exports.

Is Modern Monetary Theory the same as Neo-Endogenous Growth Theory?

I believe Ed Balls is available for a modest fee. And Gordon Brown for even less.

Okay I'm confused:
- Cummings is a SpAd
- That's bad, because he's unelected and unaccountable
- Cummings has got rid of a lot of other SpAds
- Those SpAds were also unelected and unaccountable, which is also bad
- However, Cummings' actions were also bad, because those SpAds were good (for some reason), and the ones he'll replace them with will be bad

Is that right? I get why people might want one set of SpAds over another, if they prefer the policies that set will push, for whatever reason. But people seem to be objecting on governance grounds, and I just don't understand why it matters in the abstract precisely who has control over which set of unelected and unaccountable individuals get to advise our ministers.

Endillion said:

Okay I'm confused:
- Cummings is a SpAd
- That's bad, because he's unelected and unaccountable
- Cummings has got rid of a lot of other SpAds
- Those SpAds were also unelected and unaccountable, which is also bad
- However, Cummings' actions were also bad, because those SpAds were good (for some reason), and the ones he'll replace them with will be bad

Is that right? I get why people might want one set of SpAds over another, if they prefer the policies that set will push, for whatever reason. But people seem to be objecting on governance grounds, and I just don't understand why it matters in the abstract precisely who has control over which set of unelected and unaccountable individuals get to advise our ministers.

You're smarter than this. PM and Chancellor is combined too much negotiation and policy to leave to one team. Unless PM is going to pull back on every other policy area, which does not look likely.

Alphabet_Soup said:

Is Modern Monetary Theory the same as Neo-Endogenous Growth Theory?

I believe Ed Balls is available for a modest fee. And Gordon Brown for even less.

No.
Btw Balls called it "post-neoclassical endogenous growth theory".

EPG said:

Endillion said:

Okay I'm confused:
- Cummings is a SpAd
- That's bad, because he's unelected and unaccountable
- Cummings has got rid of a lot of other SpAds
- Those SpAds were also unelected and unaccountable, which is also bad
- However, Cummings' actions were also bad, because those SpAds were good (for some reason), and the ones he'll replace them with will be bad

Is that right? I get why people might want one set of SpAds over another, if they prefer the policies that set will push, for whatever reason. But people seem to be objecting on governance grounds, and I just don't understand why it matters in the abstract precisely who has control over which set of unelected and unaccountable individuals get to advise our ministers.

You're smarter than this. PM and Chancellor is combined too much negotiation and policy to leave to one team. Unless PM is going to pull back on every other policy area, which does not look likely.

Yes, I have some sympathy with that specific point, with the proviso that everyone also complains when No10 and No11 aren't joined up.

But is there anything wrong in principle with No10 having veto rights over No11 SpAds (assuming they aren't micromanaging them)?

And forcing (say) Robert Buckland to sack one of his advisors presumably indicates that it was thought that he might get in the way of the proposed reforms to the judiciary, rather than because Cummings wants direct control over the MoJ.

tlg86 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Some pretty significant money being laid down on Betfair this morning to lay Bloomberg.

Not yours or @pulpstar 's presumably.

Just letting my book ride tbh for the moment.

IanB2 said:

geoffw said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

Is Modern Monetary Theory the same as Neo-Endogenous Growth Theory?

I believe Ed Balls is available for a modest fee. And Gordon Brown for even less.

No.
Btw Balls called it "post-neoclassical endogenous growth theory".

A lot of long words for spending money and saying to yourself, 'don't worry'.

No. The point was that the orthodox theory of economic growth (Balls's "neoclassical") can only attribute increasing welfare or productivity to technological change, which is largely impervious to policy actions by a government. By contrast endogenous growth theory asserted that the key technological change aspect of economic growth could be influenced by policy via increasing human capital (e.g. education) and policies aimed at stimulating innovation. The key question is: where does technological change (in the broadest sense) come from?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My wife and I have been dealing with a couple of health issues over the last few days but I have browsed PB from time to time.

My impressions are that Boris has moved leading brexiteers into his cabinet and taken complete control. I have no idea how malign or otherwise Cummings is but he has been highly successful in brexit and getting Boris into power

The noises coming out of the EU give the impression that nothing has changed and that they can still control the economic direction of the UK and hold it close but this cabinet appears to me to be ready to virtually no deal to break the link

On the domestic situation Boris has turned left and is about to open the spending taps trampling all over labour and making it very difficult for labour to get a hearing

Of course the opposition to Boris and Cummings on here comes from the usual suspects who would never be converted to the Boris way but then that is not important as the only people who matter to Boris are the voters who, for now at least, seem to be very supportive

Weren't you the poster who spent months telling us how strongly you were opposed to Boris and how strongly you were opposed to no deal? Now those people who at least have the consistency to have stuck to the same view are dismissed as the "usual suspects".

Indeed and I do not want no deal, but the EU threatening us with economic damage and restricting our ability to trade and succeed does justify Boris moving to defend our interests as an independent trading nation

Boris moving left meets with my approval as does huge spending on rail and infrastructure

Nevertheless those who have simply been consistent and stuck to the same view of Boris that you yourself spent many months sharing on this forum perhaps should be treated with a little more respect?

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My wife and I have been dealing with a couple of health issues over the last few days but I have browsed PB from time to time.

My impressions are that Boris has moved leading brexiteers into his cabinet and taken complete control. I have no idea how malign or otherwise Cummings is but he has been highly successful in brexit and getting Boris into power

The noises coming out of the EU give the impression that nothing has changed and that they can still control the economic direction of the UK and hold it close but this cabinet appears to me to be ready to virtually no deal to break the link

On the domestic situation Boris has turned left and is about to open the spending taps trampling all over labour and making it very difficult for labour to get a hearing

Of course the opposition to Boris and Cummings on here comes from the usual suspects who would never be converted to the Boris way but then that is not important as the only people who matter to Boris are the voters who, for now at least, seem to be very supportive

Weren't you the poster who spent months telling us how strongly you were opposed to Boris and how strongly you were opposed to no deal? Now those people who at least have the consistency to have stuck to the same view are dismissed as the "usual suspects".

Indeed and I do not want no deal, but the EU threatening us with economic damage and restricting our ability to trade and succeed does justify Boris moving to defend our interests as an independent trading nation

Boris moving left meets with my approval as does huge spending on rail and infrastructure

Nevertheless those who have simply been consistent and stuck to the same view of Boris that you yourself spent many months sharing on this forum perhaps should be treated with a little more respect?

I hope I am not disrespecting anyone and certainly do not mean to. We all have our own views and of course there is a great love of the EU by many, but we have left and need to carve out a new role and that does require the EU to recognise it

logical_song said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My wife and I have been dealing with a couple of health issues over the last few days but I have browsed PB from time to time.

My impressions are that Boris has moved leading brexiteers into his cabinet and taken complete control. I have no idea how malign or otherwise Cummings is but he has been highly successful in brexit and getting Boris into power

The noises coming out of the EU give the impression that nothing has changed and that they can still control the economic direction of the UK and hold it close but this cabinet appears to me to be ready to virtually no deal to break the link

On the domestic situation Boris has turned left and is about to open the spending taps trampling all over labour and making it very difficult for labour to get a hearing

Of course the opposition to Boris and Cummings on here comes from the usual suspects who would never be converted to the Boris way but then that is not important as the only people who matter to Boris are the voters who, for now at least, seem to be very supportive

Weren't you the poster who spent months telling us how strongly you were opposed to Boris and how strongly you were opposed to no deal? Now those people who at least have the consistency to have stuck to the same view are dismissed as the "usual suspects".

Indeed and I do not want no deal, but the EU threatening us with economic damage and restricting our ability to trade and succeed does justify Boris moving to defend our interests as an independent trading nation

Boris moving left meets with my approval as does huge spending on rail and infrastructure

If Boris had his way we would already have crashed out without a deal, he was stopped by the courts.
Now he has put in an Attorney General (my MP) who will make sure that they won't be able to stop him again.
He has renamed crash out WTO as the 'Australian' deal to soften us up for it. He'll no doubt try to blame the EU, but they will do what is good for the remaining 27, they won't want to damage us economically, they'll want to limit the damage to themselves.
Boris, Cummings and Suella seem to want a No Deal Brexit, so that's what we'll get. It seems to me that you're giving Boris the benefit of the doubt - remember what happens to people who do that.
As far as infrastructure and 'moving left' are concerned, then credit where it's due.

I agree with your comments and am giving Boris the benefit of the doubt

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My wife and I have been dealing with a couple of health issues over the last few days but I have browsed PB from time to time.

My impressions are that Boris has moved leading brexiteers into his cabinet and taken complete control. I have no idea how malign or otherwise Cummings is but he has been highly successful in brexit and getting Boris into power

The noises coming out of the EU give the impression that nothing has changed and that they can still control the economic direction of the UK and hold it close but this cabinet appears to me to be ready to virtually no deal to break the link

On the domestic situation Boris has turned left and is about to open the spending taps trampling all over labour and making it very difficult for labour to get a hearing

Of course the opposition to Boris and Cummings on here comes from the usual suspects who would never be converted to the Boris way but then that is not important as the only people who matter to Boris are the voters who, for now at least, seem to be very supportive

Weren't you the poster who spent months telling us how strongly you were opposed to Boris and how strongly you were opposed to no deal? Now those people who at least have the consistency to have stuck to the same view are dismissed as the "usual suspects".

Indeed and I do not want no deal, but the EU threatening us with economic damage and restricting our ability to trade and succeed does justify Boris moving to defend our interests as an independent trading nation

Boris moving left meets with my approval as does huge spending on rail and infrastructure

Nevertheless those who have simply been consistent and stuck to the same view of Boris that you yourself spent many months sharing on this forum perhaps should be treated with a little more respect?

I hope I am not disrespecting anyone and certainly do not mean to. We all have our own views and of course there is a great love of the EU by many, but we have left and need to carve out a new role and that does require the EU to recognise it

The EU is not obliged to sign up to terms that Britain would find convenient.

While a distinct minority would be prepared to eat grass rather than compromise with the EU, it remains a distinct minority.

Excitement notable by its complete absence.

https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1228263824681246720?s=20

Stark_Dawning said:

Apart from the Express - which I imaging caters for the Trumpite/Putinesque niche of the British public - I'm surprised how negative all those front pages are for Boris. Boris markets himself as being quintessentially British, yet with this stuff he's ridden roughshod over the Great British sense of fair play. The question is now: shorn of his bumbling-but-essentially-decent side, is there anything appealing left?

I don't think most people will notice or be bothered to be perfectly honest. Nevertheless it's going to rankle with some of the '16 remainers who supported the party at the GE.

tlg86 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

tlg86 said:

That's a brave front page from The Mirror.

Is brave the word?

Country is now run by a Government filled with spineless stooges

Expecting any libel writs?

I was thinking more about the antisemitic trope.

It wasn't originally intended as anti-semitic when it was created for the Orban government - AFAIK it was thought up by a Jewish-American polling analyst.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Apart from the Express - which I imaging caters for the Trumpite/Putinesque niche of the British public - I'm surprised how negative all those front pages are for Boris. Boris markets himself as being quintessentially British, yet with this stuff he's ridden roughshod over the Great British sense of fair play. The question is now: shorn of his bumbling-but-essentially-decent side, is there anything appealing left?

I think you will find he is very popular with voters

But that was simply because he had a cheeky smile and help up Love Actually placards during an Xmas commercial. How radically will they revise their assessment when they realize they've got an insecure megalomaniac on their hands?

Automotive supply chains out of China already breaking down. Coronavirus impact could make any negative impact from Brexit look like sunny uplands.

Trump demanding American companies bring back their supply chains from overseas now looks very long sighted.

Theuniondivvie said:

Excitement notable by its complete absence.

https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1228263824681246720?s=20

Mr Coleslaw now has to gear himself up to losing more seats next year than he did in December.

EPG said:

Endillion said:

Okay I'm confused:
- Cummings is a SpAd
- That's bad, because he's unelected and unaccountable
- Cummings has got rid of a lot of other SpAds
- Those SpAds were also unelected and unaccountable, which is also bad
- However, Cummings' actions were also bad, because those SpAds were good (for some reason), and the ones he'll replace them with will be bad

Is that right? I get why people might want one set of SpAds over another, if they prefer the policies that set will push, for whatever reason. But people seem to be objecting on governance grounds, and I just don't understand why it matters in the abstract precisely who has control over which set of unelected and unaccountable individuals get to advise our ministers.

You're smarter than this. PM and Chancellor is combined too much negotiation and policy to leave to one team. Unless PM is going to pull back on every other policy area, which does not look likely.

I strongly suspect we are about to see our version of Trump economics. Massive splurge and tax cutting to engineer some kind of mini boom to cover up Brexit.

Domonomics.

It'll end in tears.

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1228243329168490496

Isn't today the deadline?

12% or so of the country think the Mail, the Express and the Telegraph are left-wing:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1228268698080858112

One wonders what they regard as centrist publications.

CD13 said:

At least, the GE settled one issue - who rules the couintry? MPs or the voters?

Many MPs thought it was them.

The voters said "No, it bloody well isn't."

Yes, we now know it's Cummings.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

A strong leader surrounds himself with strong, independent people, because he's not intimidated, can hold his own, welcomes the challenge, and wants capable people in charge of departments.

What Johnson has done says everything about his vanity and deep personal insecurity.

The sacking of Smith and the treatment of Javid confirms what I for one knew already.

The direction for this "Boris" administration is autocratic populism with a distracting cult of personality around the leader. Scrutiny and debate to be minimized.

This is not good.