politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sunak moves to the top Tory in the next PM betting
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sunak moves to the top Tory in the next PM betting
After today’s reshuffle the main betting movement has been on the next PM betting where the new Chancellor Dunak has replaced Javid as the top Tory.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
FPT This is simple: sentence all terrorists to an indeterminate sentence with a minimum based on severity of original offence and release based upon a parole board saying they are not a threat to the public anymore.
Rising levels of minimum (as opposed to maximum) sentence serves your point 2.
Anyway, kudos to you for your Sunak tip. I hope you made some money on it!
You have to wonder what’s the point.
Also fpt.
And he at least resigned of his own volition because he was ill and misjudged his own importance.
This is quite extraordinary and just shows how careless and politically inept Cummings and Johnson are.
I'm not sure that is a fact. It is an opinion.
https://twitter.com/TheBelaaz/status/1228068182000361477
Just a thing worth noting, aside from Brown, Tony Blair used to be very trigger happy on reshuffles, nobody lasted in the same job for very long during his time in office.
Cameron had the best approach, where the instinct was the leave people in the same roles, so they gained experience and expertise.
I personally think it’s more likely he genuinely thought Javid would fall into line and be bullied from henceforth.
Today, they called him in, clearly he said you got to be kidding, no we aren't, ok well I have to resign, and they carried on the reshuffled as if no biggie. Says to me, they fully expected his react.
I don't need to believe in Zeus to learn about Graeco Roman times. I don't need to believe in Ra to learn about Amcoent Egypt. I don't need to believe in Thor to learn about the Norse. And I don't need to believe in God to understand the more recent past. There are hundred of historical gods and everyone of them as far as politics is concerned should be consigned to the past.
There is no vaccine for it (yet!)
As for his ‘political victories,’ name four.
The government could have panicked and gone for Gove and I would have been equally happy with that but they clearly didn't feel that was necessary.
As for 4 weeks before the budget, one would hope that the Chief Secretary to the Treasury was already familiar with the planning for that.
The opposition in the NE assembly referendum would have won if the lizard people had led it.
The EU referendum was narrowly won due to a combination of factors, of which Cummings was one.
It was claimed he had a limited role in the general election, although given that was claimed by Cummings himself and he’s a fluent liar I will accept that one.
So you still need to find at least two.
As for the rest, including the racist abuse, you’ve been starting early on the whisky again, haven’t you, Sean?
https://twitter.com/JakeBerry/status/1228061573614383109
(a) committing terrorist attacks
(b) aiding and abetting terrorist attacks
(c) being a member of a terrorist organisation
(d) being in possession of material created by a terrorist organisation
I think it's very easy to say that (a) makes you a terrorist. But by the time you get to (d) it's a much harder call. Terrorist organisation spew out hate filled propaganda all the time, and we make possession of (or distribution of) this material a crime.
But we don't have it as as serious an offence as (a) because hundreds of thousands of people probable have viewed or downloaded material that would be classified as illegal at one point or another.
Let me put it another way.
If you hit your girlfriend, then you are guilty of assault, and you may go to prison.
At the end of your sentence, you'll be released, whether or not a parole board says you have been rehabilitated. Because at that point, you'll have served your time.
Some of those people who hit their girlfriends and were jailed for assault will go on to kill their next girlfriend.
I struggle to see the difference. If we're locking people up because they may commit another crime in the future, then surely the prospective girlfriend killer is the same risk as the prospective terrorist killer.
Let’s hope it doesn’t end in a similar catastrophe to Lamont’s tenure.
BTW, the technical term you are seeking is ‘a Cummings.’
Religion is playing now - and will continue to play - a very important role in our politics, whether we like it or not. See, for instance, the LGBT teaching row, the issue of free speech and Muslim sensitivities etc etc. Now I am on the side of the secularists, as I imagine you are too, but anyone who fails to understand - or ignores - religion and its impact and the issues this raises is going to be handicapped in dealing with those issues.
A better point is that Traditional Chinese Medicine is missing an opportunity to step up and prove its worth.
Looking back at Cameron's first cabinet the only survivor is Gove but he was sacked by May and came back
Looking at May's first cabinet I make it there are 4 survivors - Johnson, Truss, Patel and Baroness Evans
However, Johnson quit, Patel was sacked and Truss was demoted for a while to Chief Sec (attending) so Baroness Evans is the longest survivor with 4 years in post!
By contrast Brown and Straw managed the whole 13 years of the Last Labour government, which Darling did 12.
But seriously, just to reel a few off, Farage, Sturgeon, Corbyn, Grieve, Cox, May, McDonnell, Lansman, Sadiq Khan and Osborne (for a given value of politics) all have comparable or better track records of achievement than Cummings. Yes, many of them have disasters to their credit too, but none have left quite the trail of wreckage Cummings did in their wake (except maybe Grieve).
And most of them can express ideas in something vaguely akin to the Queen’s English, too.
The reason for the large change 2010 vs now is obviously the fall out of those unwilling to tow the government line on Brexit.
However, people tend to see what they want to see. If they see a Machiavellian genius rather than an egomaniac with a shady past and a track record of dismal failure, I suppose they will regardless of the evidence.
Anyway, I have a busy day tomorrow. Have a lovely evening.
Give it up mate you're better than this.
The Labour machine in the North East does not have a history of being beaten.
The last time I watched it the demographics were closer to those of Havering rather than Tower Hamlets.
The problem as we know is that he could start an argument in a lift, resulting in a massive punch-up and walk about claiming clearly everybody else was wrong and behaved appallingly, and if they only understood things better it would never have kicked off in the first place.
edit: male
I fear its going to be an affliction for life.
It was like a bit like the scene out of Silicon Valley with the data centre dweller.
Well, we all have our blind spots.
And you a long standing contributor to a political website.
The point I'm making is 10 years is a long time to stay in any cabinet.
Perhaps we’d all like to consider an alternative theory? Perhaps the Government is determined to deliver, but for a very different constituency than posts on here? And perhaps that constituency judges success on very different criteria.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1228057674295590913
Don't ya think.
He's clearly dribbling money in and I expect him to be favourite before Super Tuesday.
I expect Biden to stay in until then too, given the strength of his polling.
I expect Bloomberg is hoping he'll endorse him once he quits thereafter.
But why did Johnson keep pushing?
Because Cummings was pushing Johnson.
It's impossible to say how long this will go on for. And it's possible they might never get over it.
If however Starmer wins the next general election then the Tories will be looking for a leader of the opposition not the incumbent PM, in which case someone like Patel or even Rees-Mogg would be a better bet
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ol5DV-YZ4og
Cummings has won most of his campaigns, showing the value of message discipline and good project management. He relies heavily on his opponents stupidly acting against their own interest, but to his credit that's paid off more than it's failed.
For policy we need to turn to his stint at education. Cummings was successful in getting his policy though, particularly on cutting out local authorities, which can count as a success. Implementation was very messy and outcomes can be said to be poor. Children in England now get a measurably worse education due to his policy than they would otherwise have Free schools, his favoured policy, perform like for like worse than academies, which perform worse than the remaining local authority schools that he wanted to get rid of. Albeit the differences are quite small.