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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “Continuity Corbyn” contender Long-Bailey gets the worst ratings in new Ipsos-MORI poll
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Comments
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Working class hero Sir Keir Starmer does it again.0
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35% say they could vote Labour under Starmer but only 28% say they could vote Labour under Long Bailey in the same poll0
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The Emily Thornberry surge is on.0
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No, yes, yes yes for me. The last 3 are all miles better than Corbyn but so is my daughter’s cat. Labour’s chronic self indulgence has to be factored in.2
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Amazing that she does so badly even among Labour voters.
It’s starting to look as though Corbyn really was a phase.
But whether sanity has returned in time is another question. The damage done to Labour is immense.0 -
She only has 13 CLPs out of 286 that have nominated, so she remains under the 5% limit.DecrepiterJohnL said:The Emily Thornberry surge is on.
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Anybody can be PM so all have what it takes. Which have it takes to be a decent PM?
Well, Starmer is a bit of a slippery character, but that he was able to work under Corbyn without putting off non-Corbynites and has support of many places which went Corbynite last time, suggests he is of decent quality.
Nandy has some more interesting things to say but I think is to a degree insincere, which doesn't mean she could not be decent. Thornberry strikes me as tough, but unable to connect with voters. Again, could be ok as a result.
RLB has stepped slightly outside her wheelhouse with some of her comments recently, but fact is she proudly presented as the continuity corbyn candidate (not wanting that specific label doesn't change that) and thus has nothing new to offer the party or country.0 -
She's a Wally.0
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56% of LD voters say they could vote Labour under Starmer but only 22% under Long Bailey.
10% of Tory voters say they could vote Labour under Starmer but only 6% under Long Bailey. 11% could vote for Nandy or Thornberry
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-attitudes-labour-leadership-candidates0 -
Perhaps RLB has been faking it all along as the full-fat lefty. Now she sees that isn't a strategy for victory the real soft left Becky is emerging from the chrysalis.kle4 said:Anybody can be PM so all have what it takes. Which have it takes to be a decent PM?
Well, Starmer is a bit of a slippery character, but that he was able to work under Corbyn without putting off non-Corbynites and has support of many places which went Corbynite last time, suggests he is of decent quality.
Nandy has some more interesting things to say but I think is to a degree insincere. Thornberry strikes me as tough, but unable to connect with voters.
RLB has stepped slightly outside her wheelhouse with some of her comments recently, but fact is she proudly presented as the continuity corbyn candidate (not wanting that specific label doesn't change that) and thus has nothing new to offer the party or country.
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Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.1
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I still think Labour will regret Richard Burgon not standing for the leadership, he's wasted in the deputy race.0
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I’m sure he is, but his drinking habits are no concern of ours.TheScreamingEagles said:I still think Labour will regret Richard Burgon not standing for the leadership, he's wasted in the deputy race.
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A question to the kind and knowledgeable people here on PB. -
I'm dyslectic and getting frustrated with the spell checker that I'm using to do this with, its slow and i think ocatanaly misses things.
Is the 'gramaly' think i see adverts for on you-tube any good, or is there something better you could point me to?0 -
Starmer is the stop-joke-candidate-RLB one right? We all know he's a busted flush and going to be given the boot eventually in favour of his deputy, assuming that it's Rayner. The electorate remember him.
EDIT: I do like Nandy for some reason but my staunch Labour friend points out to me that it cannot be Nandy AND Rayner. It would be too much.0 -
I’m afraid the answers in my experience are no and no.BigRich said:A question to the kind and knowledgeable people here on PB. -
I'm dyslectic and getting frustrated with the spell checker that I'm using to do this with, its slow and i think ocatanaly misses things.
Is the 'gramaly' think i see adverts for on you-tube any good, or is there something better you could point me to?0 -
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.0 -
A metaphor for Brexit?
A Conservative Party activist who produced a movie promoting Brexit has been jailed after conning the Dragons’ Den entrepreneur James Caan’s business out of a £519,000 investment.
David Shipley, 37, was one of the leading voices behind Brexit: The Movie, which featured Nigel Farage and David Davis, that was released a month before the 2016 referendum.
He admitted fraudulently gaining an investment in his financial recruitment company by altering his tax and bank statements to inflate his earnings.
He approached Mr Caan’s business, Resourcing Capital Ventures, with a Dragons’ Den-style pitch requesting the loan for his firm, Spitfire Capital Advisors.
The activist lied on a P60 form that his salary was £377,000 when in reality he was making under £60,000 and altered bank statements to make it appear that he had just received £540,000 which he said was from commissions.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-movie-producer-david-shipley-jailed-for-conning-dragons-den-star-james-caans-firm-9v9h8jfl00 -
A continuity hard left candidate has shite ratings... who would have thunk.it?0
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The job Starmer is auditioning for is 21st century Kinnock, not Blair.0
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Those Tory to Lab numbers don't represent much more than the usual interelectional churn.HYUFD said:56% of LD voters say they could vote Labour under Starmer but only 22% under Long Bailey.
10% of Tory voters say they could vote Labour under Starmer but only 6% under Long Bailey. 11% could vote for Nandy or Thornberry
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-attitudes-labour-leadership-candidates
Starmer needs to be getting Tories to pause and think far more than that if he wants to win.0 -
35% is what Blair got in 2005 and close to what Cameron got in 2010 and would take the Tories from 43% down to 40%. If the LDs also take 5% from the Tories, the Tories would be down to 35%/36% and Starmer could become PM in a hung parliament through a deal with the LDs and SNP.Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.
Given we will almost certainly only get a basic WTO+ trade deal for goods with the EU excluding services, Starmer would pitch for Tory Remainers on a return to the single market ticket and the LDs would do likewise0 -
I can assure you, some of my comrades wouldn't and still won't.squareroot2 said:A continuity hard left candidate has shite ratings... who would have thunk.it?
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Even NPEXMP still thinks it.. at least his postings suggest as much..Wulfrun_Phil said:
I can assure you, some of my comrades wouldn't and still won't.squareroot2 said:A continuity hard left candidate has shite ratings... who would have thunk.it?
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I think that RLB is probably the best hope the LDs have of remaining relevant in the next few years.HYUFD said:56% of LD voters say they could vote Labour under Starmer but only 22% under Long Bailey.
10% of Tory voters say they could vote Labour under Starmer but only 6% under Long Bailey. 11% could vote for Nandy or Thornberry
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-attitudes-labour-leadership-candidates
Wonder is any became £25 registered supporters to vote for her?
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Brave of her if so, but acolytes will be different to their masters, its natural and right.SandyRentool said:
Perhaps RLB has been faking it all along as the full-fat lefty. Now she sees that isn't a strategy for victory the real soft left Becky is emerging from the chrysalis.kle4 said:Anybody can be PM so all have what it takes. Which have it takes to be a decent PM?
Well, Starmer is a bit of a slippery character, but that he was able to work under Corbyn without putting off non-Corbynites and has support of many places which went Corbynite last time, suggests he is of decent quality.
Nandy has some more interesting things to say but I think is to a degree insincere. Thornberry strikes me as tough, but unable to connect with voters.
RLB has stepped slightly outside her wheelhouse with some of her comments recently, but fact is she proudly presented as the continuity corbyn candidate (not wanting that specific label doesn't change that) and thus has nothing new to offer the party or country.0 -
thanks anywayydoethur said:
I’m afraid the answers in my experience are no and no.BigRich said:A question to the kind and knowledgeable people here on PB. -
I'm dyslectic and getting frustrated with the spell checker that I'm using to do this with, its slow and i think ocatanaly misses things.
Is the 'gramaly' think i see adverts for on you-tube any good, or is there something better you could point me to?0 -
Can anyone make sense of this one please?
https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/1225519634545291276
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The way I look at it is that if Boris does well he wins. If he doesn’t Starmer is not a completely disastrous alternative. But I am watching Ed Balls in Euroland. What a missed opportunity. I could have voted for him, even before the bum lift.Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.1 -
Even some Lab members don't have a clear understanding of who these people are or what they stand for, and are there for just voting for who they have herd of. Possibly?Wulfrun_Phil said:Can anyone make sense of this one please?
https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/12255196345452912761 -
There's a bunch of hand wavey fluff in here but there is also a lot of fascinating stuff about the Trump social media strategy (and other countries similar efforts)
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/03/the-2020-disinformation-war/605530/0 -
There were a lot of people who only turned up to vote for the leader, and went home after that was done?Wulfrun_Phil said:Can anyone make sense of this one please?
https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/12255196345452912760 -
Active sense of humour?Wulfrun_Phil said:Can anyone make sense of this one please?
https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/12255196345452912760 -
In Tory Remain seats though where the LDs are 2nd the Liberals will be more likely to take the seat if Starmer is the Labour leader and potential replacement PM than Long Bailey as Tory Remainers will be more willing to risk not voting ToryBigRich said:
I think that RLB is probably the best hope the LDs have of remaining relevant in the next few years.HYUFD said:56% of LD voters say they could vote Labour under Starmer but only 22% under Long Bailey.
10% of Tory voters say they could vote Labour under Starmer but only 6% under Long Bailey. 11% could vote for Nandy or Thornberry
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-attitudes-labour-leadership-candidates
Wonder is any became £25 registered supporters to vote for her?1 -
The doctor whose death was being questioned, has actually died and it seems like the Chinese government tried to media manage reports that he hadn't.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51403795
Not a good look, given the Chinese population are apparently already distrusting of what the state are saying about this outbreak.
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It is a flood of CLPs nominations tonight
Ian Murray went over the 33 threshold and is now on the ballot
Rosena Allin Khan is at 26 now1 -
Why would the LDs take 5% from the Tories?HYUFD said:
35% is what Blair got in 2005 and close to what Cameron got in 2010 and would take the Tories from 43% down to 40%. If the LDs also take 5% from the Tories, the Tories would be down to 35%/36% and Starmer could become PM in a hung parliament through a deal with the LDs and SNP.Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.
Given we will almost certainly only get a basic WTO+ trade deal for goods with the EU excluding services, Starmer would pitch for Tory Remainers on a return to the single market ticket and the LDs would do likewise0 -
toadTheScreamingEagles said:A metaphor for Brexit?
A Conservative Party activist who produced a movie promoting Brexit has been jailed after conning the Dragons’ Den entrepreneur James Caan’s business out of a £519,000 investment.
David Shipley, 37, was one of the leading voices behind Brexit: The Movie, which featured Nigel Farage and David Davis, that was released a month before the 2016 referendum.
He admitted fraudulently gaining an investment in his financial recruitment company by altering his tax and bank statements to inflate his earnings.
He approached Mr Caan’s business, Resourcing Capital Ventures, with a Dragons’ Den-style pitch requesting the loan for his firm, Spitfire Capital Advisors.
The activist lied on a P60 form that his salary was £377,000 when in reality he was making under £60,000 and altered bank statements to make it appear that he had just received £540,000 which he said was from commissions.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-movie-producer-david-shipley-jailed-for-conning-dragons-den-star-james-caans-firm-9v9h8jfl0
0 -
A year ago circa 40%/41% were telling some pollsters that they would vote Labour under Corbyn - as they had done in 2017. Why would those voters not support Starmer?Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.0 -
Get used to it, there could potentially be some 300+ more nomination meetings next week.AndreaParma_82 said:It is a flood of CLPs nominations tonight
Ian Murray went over the 33 threshold and is now on the ballot
Rosena Allin Khan is at 26 now0 -
The Labour West Yorkshire mafia.Wulfrun_Phil said:Can anyone make sense of this one please?
https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/1225519634545291276
Remember Burgon and his family have been involved in the West Yorkshire Labour party for decades, his uncle was also an MP for a West Yorkshire seat.0 -
Boris.justin124 said:
A year ago circa 40%/41% were telling some pollsters that they would vote Labour under Corbyn - as they had done in 2017. Why would those voters not support Starmer?Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.0 -
On a GB basis - which is what pollsters bar Survation give us - Blair polled 36% in 2005.HYUFD said:
35% is what Blair got in 2005 and close to what Cameron got in 2010 and would take the Tories from 43% down to 40%. If the LDs also take 5% from the Tories, the Tories would be down to 35%/36% and Starmer could become PM in a hung parliament through a deal with the LDs and SNP.Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.
Given we will almost certainly only get a basic WTO+ trade deal for goods with the EU excluding services, Starmer would pitch for Tory Remainers on a return to the single market ticket and the LDs would do likewise0 -
Wokingham CLP for Rosena Allin-Khan
27. 6 more needed0 -
I doubt that - Johnson is very toxic with many middle-class educated voters who in the past usually voted Tory. Also Labour dropped back from those levels 3 months before he took over - and later went on to recover to 33% from the lows of circa 23% being recorded in June/July.DavidL said:
Boris.justin124 said:
A year ago circa 40%/41% were telling some pollsters that they would vote Labour under Corbyn - as they had done in 2017. Why would those voters not support Starmer?Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.0 -
Ed Balls was the leader Labour should have picked.DavidL said:
The way I look at it is that if Boris does well he wins. If he doesn’t Starmer is not a completely disastrous alternative. But I am watching Ed Balls in Euroland. What a missed opportunity. I could have voted for him, even before the bum lift.Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.0 -
I don't think he has any interest in the gig these days.Casino_Royale said:
Ed Balls was the leader Labour should have picked.DavidL said:
The way I look at it is that if Boris does well he wins. If he doesn’t Starmer is not a completely disastrous alternative. But I am watching Ed Balls in Euroland. What a missed opportunity. I could have voted for him, even before the bum lift.Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.0 -
They think deputy doesn't matter, and they might as well have a laugh.Wulfrun_Phil said:Can anyone make sense of this one please?
https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/12255196345452912760 -
But for now, at least, Boris is winning over people who would have voted Labour in a heart beat. He is gaining more than he is losing.justin124 said:
I doubt that - Johnson is very toxic with many middle-class educated voters who in the past usually voted Tory. Also Labour dropped back from those levels 3 months before he took over - and later went on to recover to 33% from the lows of circa 23% being recorded in June/July.DavidL said:
Boris.justin124 said:
A year ago circa 40%/41% were telling some pollsters that they would vote Labour under Corbyn - as they had done in 2017. Why would those voters not support Starmer?Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.0 -
Because they were clearly lying?justin124 said:
A year ago circa 40%/41% were telling some pollsters that they would vote Labour under Corbyn - as they had done in 2017. Why would those voters not support Starmer?Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.
The real answer is that those numbers were hit only when May was at her weakest and the Tories' failure to deliver Brexit allowed a BXP surge. No chance of a repeat under a charismatic and voter-focused Boris.0 -
1) After Stamers attempt to derail Brexit (country to there 2017 manifesto), I'm not sure they are coming back any time soon, especially while he is in charge.justin124 said:
A year ago circa 40%/41% were telling some pollsters that they would vote Labour under Corbyn - as they had done in 2017. Why would those voters not support Starmer?Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.
2) And Boris.
3) And for some they had been closer ideologically to the Torys for years, but where voting Lab out of habit. now the habit is bracken it may be hard to get them back, without becoming so 'right wing' that Lab loses more support to LD.
Still we live in interesting times anything could happen.0 -
Because frustrating Brexit was a factor then and that's gone now, but Starmer is still dressing significantly to the Left economically.justin124 said:
A year ago circa 40%/41% were telling some pollsters that they would vote Labour under Corbyn - as they had done in 2017. Why would those voters not support Starmer?Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.
Also Boris is holding together a much tighter coalition of voters than May ever did and in more seats.0 -
If the Lib Dems would shut up about Brexit, I could see myself voting for them.Casino_Royale said:
Why would the LDs take 5% from the Tories?HYUFD said:
35% is what Blair got in 2005 and close to what Cameron got in 2010 and would take the Tories from 43% down to 40%. If the LDs also take 5% from the Tories, the Tories would be down to 35%/36% and Starmer could become PM in a hung parliament through a deal with the LDs and SNP.Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.
Given we will almost certainly only get a basic WTO+ trade deal for goods with the EU excluding services, Starmer would pitch for Tory Remainers on a return to the single market ticket and the LDs would do likewise0 -
We are likely to be at peak Johnson now - and even today Labour is polling well above the levels of last summer. Admittedly most of that has been clawed back from the LDs.DavidL said:
But for now, at least, Boris is winning over people who would have voted Labour in a heart beat. He is gaining more than he is losing.justin124 said:
I doubt that - Johnson is very toxic with many middle-class educated voters who in the past usually voted Tory. Also Labour dropped back from those levels 3 months before he took over - and later went on to recover to 33% from the lows of circa 23% being recorded in June/July.DavidL said:
Boris.justin124 said:
A year ago circa 40%/41% were telling some pollsters that they would vote Labour under Corbyn - as they had done in 2017. Why would those voters not support Starmer?Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.0 -
I will not be surprised to see Labour poll leads by the end of the year.0
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Quite a surge in RLB nominations tonight.0
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If so you can forget your previous postjustin124 said:Quite a surge in RLB nominations tonight.
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As I said if Boris fails to deliver Starmer is in with a chance. But if he does Labour has little to say. Really enjoying Ed’s program.justin124 said:
We are likely to be at peak Johnson now - and even today Labour is polling well above the levels of last summer. Admittedly most of that has been clawed back from the LDs.DavidL said:
But for now, at least, Boris is winning over people who would have voted Labour in a heart beat. He is gaining more than he is losing.justin124 said:
I doubt that - Johnson is very toxic with many middle-class educated voters who in the past usually voted Tory. Also Labour dropped back from those levels 3 months before he took over - and later went on to recover to 33% from the lows of circa 23% being recorded in June/July.DavidL said:
Boris.justin124 said:
A year ago circa 40%/41% were telling some pollsters that they would vote Labour under Corbyn - as they had done in 2017. Why would those voters not support Starmer?Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.1 -
Justin, the man who only ever see positives for Labour. 20% behind in the polls, no problemo, Labour will ahead in 10 months, no sweat.1
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You mean you think.his ideas on neo-endogenous growth theory would have been a winner?Casino_Royale said:
Ed Balls was the leader Labour should have picked.DavidL said:
The way I look at it is that if Boris does well he wins. If he doesn’t Starmer is not a completely disastrous alternative. But I am watching Ed Balls in Euroland. What a missed opportunity. I could have voted for him, even before the bum lift.Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.0 -
Have I missed something in Iowa. Sanders on 2.14?0
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And all those conservatives voters are going to switch labour en masse.FrancisUrquhart said:Justin, the man who only ever see positives for Labour. 20% behind in the polls, no problemo, Labour will ahead in 10 months, no sweat.
Labour cannot win without converting conservative voters in their droves0 -
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As should not surprise anyone, the bonfire of the tariffs is over, and free-trade post-Brexit Britain is one for the alternative history books. The Plan now: Walk away from EU trade if Boris says it's in the national interest; prioritise a deal with New Zealand. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/06/uk-import-tariffs-trade-brexit0
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They are all coming out the woodwork now. To add allegations of bullying, racist and sexually inappropriate language.GIN1138 said:
"Be Nice to People on Your Way Up. You’ll Meet Them On Your Way Down"3 -
Because quite a few soft LD/Con voters went Con because of fear of Corbyn.Casino_Royale said:
Why would the LDs take 5% from the Tories?HYUFD said:
35% is what Blair got in 2005 and close to what Cameron got in 2010 and would take the Tories from 43% down to 40%. If the LDs also take 5% from the Tories, the Tories would be down to 35%/36% and Starmer could become PM in a hung parliament through a deal with the LDs and SNP.Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.
Given we will almost certainly only get a basic WTO+ trade deal for goods with the EU excluding services, Starmer would pitch for Tory Remainers on a return to the single market ticket and the LDs would do likewise0 -
I see Wera Hobhouse is running for Lib Dem leader...do they want to try and poll negative numbers?
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/02/wera-hobhouse-first-lib-dem-leadership-candidate-she-s-unlikely-win1 -
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She is still getting fewer nominations than Starmer - but seems to be picking up 35% or so tonight.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If so you can forget your previous postjustin124 said:Quite a surge in RLB nominations tonight.
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Nadine will.be celebrating...GIN1138 said:0 -
At this rate some of us will soon be able to appear on Mastermind with specialist subject of Iowa Caucus.1
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Look at the CLP nominations map for deputy. The geographical element to them is quite strong for every single candidate. And given their ex MP. was McDonnell's PPS, they also have some form for selecting from the left.ThomasNashe said:
They think deputy doesn't matter, and they might as well have a laugh.Wulfrun_Phil said:Can anyone make sense of this one please?
https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/1225519634545291276
It's a somewhat gentrifying constituency that will be trending left over the full political cycle, not really typical Red Wall. (Iirc correctly Lab -> Con was 3.5% this time out).0 -
No - I am referring to news of CLP nominations. The data is constantly being updayed.Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
It won't be before 2025, as that is probably when they will have actually have confirmed results.rottenborough said:At this rate some of us will soon be able to appear on Mastermind with specialist subject of Iowa Caucus.
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The Tories polled circa 44.5% on a GB basis. Getting rid of Corbyn and the disappearance of Brexit as a salient issue could well push that below 40%.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And all those conservatives voters are going to switch labour en masse.FrancisUrquhart said:Justin, the man who only ever see positives for Labour. 20% behind in the polls, no problemo, Labour will ahead in 10 months, no sweat.
Labour cannot win without converting conservative voters in their droves0 -
U.S., allies should consider Nokia, Ericsson investments to counter Huawei: BarrBarr said there had been some proposals that concerns about Huawei “could be met by the United States aligning itself with Nokia and/or Ericsson, through American ownership of a controlling stake, either directly or through a consortium of private American and allied companies.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-spying-huawei/u-s-allies-should-consider-nokia-ericsson-investments-to-counter-huawei-barr-idUSKBN20029O
So the US government doesn't only want countries to eschew Huawei, they want the alternatives to be controlled by the US, and if they are controlled by the US every supposed advantage they offer in terms of security is just one National Security Letter away from disappearing.1 -
Or upto 50% - who knowsjustin124 said:
The Tories polled circa 44.5% on a GB basis. Getting rid of Corbyn and the disappearance of Brexit as a salient issue could well push that below 40%.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And all those conservatives voters are going to switch labour en masse.FrancisUrquhart said:Justin, the man who only ever see positives for Labour. 20% behind in the polls, no problemo, Labour will ahead in 10 months, no sweat.
Labour cannot win without converting conservative voters in their droves1 -
I mean that he was smart enough to see the complexities and the challenges but human enough to understand how people feel and what is important to them. Corbyn’s anti western rantings are just embarrassing by comparison. As are RLB’s , of course.squareroot2 said:
You mean you think.his ideas on neo-endogenous growth theory would have been a winner?Casino_Royale said:
Ed Balls was the leader Labour should have picked.DavidL said:
The way I look at it is that if Boris does well he wins. If he doesn’t Starmer is not a completely disastrous alternative. But I am watching Ed Balls in Euroland. What a missed opportunity. I could have voted for him, even before the bum lift.Casino_Royale said:
Assuming Brexit gets done (sensibly) going into next year and the economy doesn't blow up, how does Starmer win?DavidL said:Starmer is going to win this so everyone else is irrelevant. He showed moral cowardice about anti-semitism but he is clever and competent in a general sense. A massive improvement even if probably not quite good enough.
I can see him getting a solid 35% of the vote. But most of Boris's coalition is going to stick with him now and he should be able to rely on a base of 40%+ at the next election too. Farage is history as a major force now.
Without winning over direct Tory switchers he ain't going to be PM.0 -
Days since Labour antisemitism scandal....reset the clock...
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1225528949171728393?s=200 -
Latest (reputable) polls have the Blues on 49%Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or upto 50% - who knowsjustin124 said:
The Tories polled circa 44.5% on a GB basis. Getting rid of Corbyn and the disappearance of Brexit as a salient issue could well push that below 40%.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And all those conservatives voters are going to switch labour en masse.FrancisUrquhart said:Justin, the man who only ever see positives for Labour. 20% behind in the polls, no problemo, Labour will ahead in 10 months, no sweat.
Labour cannot win without converting conservative voters in their droves
1 -
Of 60 CLP nominations so far tonight , Starmer has circa 30 - RLB 20 with Nandy on 10.0
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I know very little aboout US politics but is all this commentary, that after Iowa and the impeachment fiasco, Trump is a shoe in for November really likely1
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Nakedly partisan given they have withheld Trump's tax returns.
https://twitter.com/YahooNews/status/1225454881072459778?s=19
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and Boris on 52%RobD said:
Latest (reputable) polls have the Blues on 49%Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or upto 50% - who knowsjustin124 said:
The Tories polled circa 44.5% on a GB basis. Getting rid of Corbyn and the disappearance of Brexit as a salient issue could well push that below 40%.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And all those conservatives voters are going to switch labour en masse.FrancisUrquhart said:Justin, the man who only ever see positives for Labour. 20% behind in the polls, no problemo, Labour will ahead in 10 months, no sweat.
Labour cannot win without converting conservative voters in their droves0 -
Survation has them on 44%.- probably 45% on a GB basis.RobD said:
Latest (reputable) polls have the Blues on 49%Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or upto 50% - who knowsjustin124 said:
The Tories polled circa 44.5% on a GB basis. Getting rid of Corbyn and the disappearance of Brexit as a salient issue could well push that below 40%.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And all those conservatives voters are going to switch labour en masse.FrancisUrquhart said:Justin, the man who only ever see positives for Labour. 20% behind in the polls, no problemo, Labour will ahead in 10 months, no sweat.
Labour cannot win without converting conservative voters in their droves0 -
Dems have an absolute mountain to climb, but it is not impossible. Nominating Sanders would seal Trump as POTUS though.Big_G_NorthWales said:I know very little aboout US politics but is all this commentary, that after Iowa and the impeachment fiasco, Trump is a shoe in for November really likely
0 -
It wont go away until Keir takes hold of it and is ruthless on all these nutters.FrancisUrquhart said:Days since Labour antisemitism scandal....reset the clock...
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1225528949171728393?s=200 -
Mori today is 47%justin124 said:
Survation has them on 44%.- probably 45% on a GB basis.RobD said:
Latest (reputable) polls have the Blues on 49%Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or upto 50% - who knowsjustin124 said:
The Tories polled circa 44.5% on a GB basis. Getting rid of Corbyn and the disappearance of Brexit as a salient issue could well push that below 40%.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And all those conservatives voters are going to switch labour en masse.FrancisUrquhart said:Justin, the man who only ever see positives for Labour. 20% behind in the polls, no problemo, Labour will ahead in 10 months, no sweat.
Labour cannot win without converting conservative voters in their droves0 -
Must be an outlier.justin124 said:
Survation has them on 44%.- probably 45% on a GB basis.RobD said:
Latest (reputable) polls have the Blues on 49%Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or upto 50% - who knowsjustin124 said:
The Tories polled circa 44.5% on a GB basis. Getting rid of Corbyn and the disappearance of Brexit as a salient issue could well push that below 40%.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And all those conservatives voters are going to switch labour en masse.FrancisUrquhart said:Justin, the man who only ever see positives for Labour. 20% behind in the polls, no problemo, Labour will ahead in 10 months, no sweat.
Labour cannot win without converting conservative voters in their droves1 -
It seems chaotic and sad to see the US in such a bad place politicallyrottenborough said:
Dems have an absolute mountain to climb, but it is not impossible. Nominating Sanders would seal Trump as POTUS though.Big_G_NorthWales said:I know very little aboout US politics but is all this commentary, that after Iowa and the impeachment fiasco, Trump is a shoe in for November really likely
0 -
Indeed. It is very depressing to see the divide. Nancy being denied a basic handshake and then her tearing up the speech.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It seems chaotic and sad to see the US in such a bad place politicallyrottenborough said:
Dems have an absolute mountain to climb, but it is not impossible. Nominating Sanders would seal Trump as POTUS though.Big_G_NorthWales said:I know very little aboout US politics but is all this commentary, that after Iowa and the impeachment fiasco, Trump is a shoe in for November really likely
Who can bring the US together?0 -
We might see Bercow being investigated by the police for alleged hate crimes yet...FrancisUrquhart said:
They are all coming out the woodwork now. To add allegations of bullying, racist and sexually inappropriate language.GIN1138 said:
"Be Nice to People on Your Way Up. You’ll Meet Them On Your Way Down"1 -
Both sides are childish and are wrecking the US reputation across the globerottenborough said:
Indeed. It is very depressing to see the divide. Nancy being denied a basic handshake and then her tearing up the speech.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It seems chaotic and sad to see the US in such a bad place politicallyrottenborough said:
Dems have an absolute mountain to climb, but it is not impossible. Nominating Sanders would seal Trump as POTUS though.Big_G_NorthWales said:I know very little aboout US politics but is all this commentary, that after Iowa and the impeachment fiasco, Trump is a shoe in for November really likely
Who can bring the US together?
Trump needs to go but not to be replaced by a Corbyn look-alike1 -
Well, let's see how Workington man feels after Brexit. Wokingham man too.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And all those conservatives voters are going to switch labour en masse.FrancisUrquhart said:Justin, the man who only ever see positives for Labour. 20% behind in the polls, no problemo, Labour will ahead in 10 months, no sweat.
Labour cannot win without converting conservative voters in their droves
There is no GE for 4 years, so not much reason to go poll chasing just yet.0 -
It does seem to be snowballing and I cannot see Bercow with a peerage to be honestGIN1138 said:
We might see Bercow being investigated by the police for alleged hate crimes yet...FrancisUrquhart said:
They are all coming out the woodwork now. To add allegations of bullying, racist and sexually inappropriate language.GIN1138 said:
"Be Nice to People on Your Way Up. You’ll Meet Them On Your Way Down"1 -
0
