politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two weeks into LAB’s leadership election and Starmer’s looking
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two weeks into LAB’s leadership election and Starmer’s looking good
So far, fourteen CLPs have nominated candidates to be leader of the Labour Party.
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The first party with a black or minority ethnic leader will NOT be Labour.
The Tories, the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the LibDems, UKIP, the Brexit Party, Mebyon Kernow, the Yorkshire Party ..... they are all possible.
But, not the Labour Party.
Although I'm not convinced he'd thank me for bringing this up.
Actually, if I was voting for the Labour leadership, I'd probably be thinking hard about the North & even harder about Scotland.
Labour just can't get back into real contention without recovering some of their former Scottish citadels.
That seems to me to be key to Labour's future.
I am just pointing out that Scotland is more important to the Labour Party than vice versa!
If I was voting for a Labour leader, I'd be interested to hear plans for a Scottish recovery.
That is not to say there is a better alternative. I suspect, and this is a theory that will never be tested, that Emily Thornberry would be the most successful of the candidates available, regardless of her flagellation. (Is that the right word for someone who is anti St Georges flag displays? Innocent face
If she were to come out as LGBT+ we would have a full house.
None of the above has anything to do with why I'm planning to vote for her. Nor should it.
The broader picture is that Labour in England may also be irrecoverable, at least in anything other than the very long term. The memory of the Corbyn episode could turn out to be as destructive in much of the old heartland as that of Thatcher was for the Tories for decades in Scotland and the mining communities, and they've nowhere else to go for an alternative supply of seats to make up the difference. The South-East won't suddenly discover a great enthusiasm for the North London Cult any time soon.
We have to do our bit in England and Wales.
Edit: And so do the Lib Dems.
Labour need to bring in a sensible credible leader and in 5 years the Northern Tory MPs will be receiving P45s. If Long Bailey is successful in this leadership bid, with or without her hyphen, Labour are then doomed, and so is our rather flawed system of democracy.
It is the choice of a party that has lost its confidence and lost its nerve in the shattering defeat.
In fact, I think all of the female candidates are better, bolder choices. Even Philips -- who I think is ghastly at a personal level -- is a better, bolder choice.
Keir is the person to preside over managed decay.
Wales and N. Ireland would see no reason to stay (Llafur would rather run Wales in perpetuity than be in perpetual opposition in England & Wales). Wales may even be pushed -- I doubt many English Tories think it's worth keeping in the Union.
The Labour Party would then be left to fight England alone.
It would have to change out of all recognition to win in England.
What does she say? Extremely uncomplimentary things is my recollection.
If Keir saw the "best way to the leadership as being part of the Corbyn shadow cabinet" then all that tells me is he is personally very ambitious.
The Mike Smithsons are exactly the kind of person who Keir will appeal to. But, the Mike Smithsons already vote Labour regularly ...
They are not the people Labour need to win over.
https://twitter.com/miffythegamer/status/1219074173873594369
If you always end up voting "tactically" for Labour, you are a Labour voter, no? A reluctant one, maybe.
Also, I think the next Sindy referendum will be very close. A mistake by one side or the other could easily decide it.
Would they bother had he been singing, well or badly, from the centre left hymn sheet I wonder...
If you voted Labour in 2015, 2017 and 2019 in Edinburgh South, then you're a very loyal Labour voter.
Suppose this pattern goes on for ever, that Murray is always "the lesser evil", and you carry on voting Labour in 2024 and 2029 and 2034 and so on. You end up voting Labour all your life (or for as long as Scotland remains part of the UK).
You are not a tactical voter, you are a Labour voter.
Furthermore, there is enough in Starmer's record to suggest that he is far from the centrist politician that Momentum are vainly claiming he is. That, and the fact that he has kept at arms length from the infighting thus far means he is of all the candidates probably the one with most potential to reunify the party from a position of strength.
John Smith was also caricatured as an unimaginative barrister type prior to his appointment, yet at the point of his death Labour was enjoying 20%+ opinion poll leads. It turned out that competance was exactly what appealed to the public in contrast to the flamboyant Kinnock years.
I was struck as to how do the five Labour leader hopefuls compare with the new MP for Bishop Auckland ? Well, allow that they have been around for some time and so are moderately experienced whereas she is new. So, you would expect them all to be head and shoulders above Ms Davison. The problem is they aren't. There must be a hundred MPs on the Tory benches who have the ability to make more credible prime ministers than any of the Labour leadership candidates.
This means Labour have a problem even post Boris, i.e. post 2028. These seats they need to get back now have Tory MPs who will be in there vying to be next Tory PM. Even if it isn't Ms Davison there is Ms Harrison, the guy from Stoke and who knows who else.
Gavin Williamson hasn't answered yet
But I hear him coughing all night long
Oh, a hundred floors above me in the Tower of Song
I am listening to Fox in conversation with Brendan O'Neil right now and he is spot on about how warped the cultural bubble has become, particularly on the left.
On the subject of rejoining, none of the 4 new members interviewed here appear to be fans of Corbyn either.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-vote-member-join-party-candidates-a9289181.html
Either way, pity for me. I quite liked the programme at the time and will not now be able to watch any repeats.
Ahem. While he was there. Did his dad own the factory?
He’ll have his place in history, don’t doubt that. It will simply be a shameful one.
1. Kes.
2. Bambi’s mother.
3. Ellie in Up.
4. The little boy in Marcelino, Pan y Vino - a film no-one will have heard of but was shown in Italy when I was a child. I cried buckets when I saw it.
Plus I also sob at the scene at the railway at the end of The Railway Station: the train disappearing, the steam, the girl standing there, then the cry of “Daddy, my Daddy!”
Plus when he was considering schools, when his family was considering schools, they didn't send him to a private one. It is critical that it became one, as you rightly say, when he was there and hence the charge that he went to a private school is blunted completely.
Oxted looks lovely
"And while Sir Keir has made frequent reference to his tool maker father, dad Rodney once boasted that he ran his own factory.
Reflecting on his son's knighthood in 2014, Rodney Starmer wrote in Oxted's theatre newsletter that his son had spent six months before university working 'in my factory operating a production machine'."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7878643/Is-Labour-leadership-hopeful-Keir-Starmer-real-Mark-Darcy.html
It is like the morons who don't enjoy the comedy of Eddie Izzard because of his politics even though he very, very rarely includes anything political in his act. If you don't watch something because it is not funny or not good then that is understandable. To not watch something because you disagree with the politics of one of the actors when the programme or show has absolutely nothing to do with that political view is genuinely stupid.
Tony Robinson, as another example, is politically a complete tosser but he makes brilliant programmes both comedy and factual.