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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember Tony Blair’s all postal vote Euro Elections in 200

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  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Election Data map maker now offering commercial services.

    "I am able to identify UKIP-friendly zones in your electoral division/ward/constituency by using demographics and previous voting behaviour. These maps are available at £10 each. "

    http://election-data.blogspot.hu/2014/04/ordering-ukip-maps.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    edited April 2014
    F1 - I'm told that Eric Boullier is being sincere, McLaren might be back in business for Barcelona. They have gained around 1.4s in the CFD model putting them at the front of the Mercedes customerteams. Still behind RBR and Ferrari though but not by too much. Same source as always. He said the new order for Barcelona would be Merc, RBR, Fer = McL, FOI, Torro Rosso then the rest.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    malcolmg said:

    Scotland has been a bit higher at times but the numbers are dubious. They are not comparing like for like so it is very difficult if not impossible to get a real picture. Flippant statements such as the earlier poster made are typical of the attempt to paint Scotland as a subsidy junkie and then use differing scales to prove they are correct. Even trying to compare to when labour was in power is rubbish when you consider outsourcing and subcontracting etc that flatters to deceive in certain areas.
    How many of those public sector jobs, (HMRC etc) will be coming back south of the border in the event of a yes vote?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,384

    Election Data map maker now offering commercial services.

    "I am able to identify UKIP-friendly zones in your electoral division/ward/constituency by using demographics and previous voting behaviour. These maps are available at £10 each. "

    http://election-data.blogspot.hu/2014/04/ordering-ukip-maps.html

    If they're only doing them for UKIP they could charge a bit more than a tenner.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983



    How many of those public sector jobs, (HMRC etc) will be coming back south of the border in the event of a yes vote?

    Scotland will still need a customs and revenue service after independence. If you think they can collect taxes and duties with fewer personnel than under the UK then that's all the better surely.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    corporeal said:

    Nick Clegg's back yard?

    A la Thatcher launching it in Cardiff vs Callaghan.
    Is Mr Clegg that important?

    Looking at a map, it's adjacent to Rotherham. Perhaps it's a media/transport centre for the region?

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@53.3957166,-1.4994562,11z

    (bottom left of the 2009 EU Parliament result map below)

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Gh4A41ctBVw/U1AcDAKYp1I/AAAAAAAABSg/1YZjpPdLdR8/s1600/UKIPYORK09.png
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited April 2014

    Is there a particular reason to pick Sheffield?

    Of course, it's an echo of this famous occasion:

    http://tinyurl.com/n8czq92


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060

    "UKIP launches our European Election Campaign in Sheffield today"

    twitter.com/UKIP/status/458576509616144384/photo/1

    Is there a particular reason to pick Sheffield?

    Why not ?

    Full marks for Nige coming up to kick off his campaign in the People's Republic.



  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    taffys said:

    ''Uncontrolled immigration isn't the right amount in my opinion.''

    One problem UKIP might have is that they are making much of EU immigration. They say very little about non-EU immigration, and yet this seems to incense potential supporters at least as much.

    1. UKIP want to leave the EU. That's the priority. Immigration is just one of the arguments to use.

    2. The government can claim they are/have addressed concerns about uncontrolled immigration from non-EU countries.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,360
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. PB, the McLaren is an odd monkey. Rather good in Australia, less so everywhere else. Cheers for the insight, I'll be sure to consider that alongside the mood music and practice times in Spain.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    More fun facts from ICM:

    What was your age last birthday (mean):
    Con: 48
    Lab: 44
    LibD: 45
    UKIP: 54

    Social Class (AB/C1/C2/DE) > ABC1/C2DE
    Con: 36/30/17/17 > 66/34
    Lab: 26/31/18/25 > 57/43
    LibD: 38/30/14/18 >68/32
    UKIP: 24/24/26/25 > 48/51

    There's nowt posh as a Lib Dem......
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060
    edited April 2014

    Is Mr Clegg that important?

    Looking at a map, it's adjacent to Rotherham. Perhaps it's a media/transport centre for the region?

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@53.3957166,-1.4994562,11z

    (bottom left of the 2009 EU Parliament result map below)

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Gh4A41ctBVw/U1AcDAKYp1I/AAAAAAAABSg/1YZjpPdLdR8/s1600/UKIPYORK09.png
    The picture is taken in the Winter Gardens, and the talk will be in the city centre. You could safely put your mortgage on Labour winning here (Sheffield Central), and is as much Clegg's backyard as Croydon North is the Conservatives'.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    You boys like to twist the facts, the US bailed out UK banks and in future they will do the same. UK also bailed out Ireland and Iceland. Get over it and stop trying to peddle untruths by using weasely words.
    I've spent my career in the sector & have a pretty good grip on who did what to whom and when during the financial crisis.

    You are wrong. Get over it
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119

    More fun facts from ICM:

    What was your age last birthday (mean):
    Con: 48
    Lab: 44
    LibD: 45
    UKIP: 54

    Social Class (AB/C1/C2/DE) > ABC1/C2DE
    Con: 36/30/17/17 > 66/34
    Lab: 26/31/18/25 > 57/43
    LibD: 38/30/14/18 >68/32
    UKIP: 24/24/26/25 > 48/51

    There's nowt posh as a Lib Dem......

    The problem with UKIP is that they attract support equally from all social classes

    Extremists!

    I don't really follow what these letters mean but am I right in saying that UKIP would be the party of the working class based on these figures?

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Pulpstar said:

    Why not ?

    Full marks for Nige coming up to kick off his campaign in the People's Republic.

    What ever the merits of the UKIP poster strategy (and full marks to that idiot Labour MP screaming 'racist' and giving them much more publicity than they would have garnered on their own) at least they were well executed - simple arresting visual, minimal copy.

    Which is more than can be said for their spoofs - the latest one is even worse than the first two:

    https://twitter.com/UkipBillboards/status/458318104922423297/photo/1

    Net, a bad idea, atrociously executed......
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060

    What ever the merits of the UKIP poster strategy (and full marks to that idiot Labour MP screaming 'racist' and giving them much more publicity than they would have garnered on their own) at least they were well executed - simple arresting visual, minimal copy.

    Which is more than can be said for their spoofs - the latest one is even worse than the first two:

    https://twitter.com/UkipBillboards/status/458318104922423297/photo/1

    Net, a bad idea, atrociously executed......
    A fowl poster.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    isam said:

    The problem with UKIP is that they attract support equally from all social classes

    Extremists!

    I don't really follow what these letters mean but am I right in saying that UKIP would be the party of the working class based on these figures?
    That's certainly an argument you could make. They're clearly the 'least posh' party......

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    isam said:

    The problem with UKIP is that they attract support equally from all social classes

    Extremists!

    I don't really follow what these letters mean but am I right in saying that UKIP would be the party of the working class based on these figures?

    No. Because that's a % break down of party supporters. So you could say that UKIP's support is more evenly distributed, but the actual number of working class supporters would (I'd confidently suggest) be higher in Labour and probably Conservative as well.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,360
    Indeed, Miss Vance. The subtext is "Worried about immigration? We think you're a complete moron and laugh at you. Mwahahaha!"

    Also, 'overrun' is one word.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/04/22/labour-loses-ground-economy/

    Dangerous times for Labour. They are about to lose their own pet argument about the cost of living "crisis".
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119

    What ever the merits of the UKIP poster strategy (and full marks to that idiot Labour MP screaming 'racist' and giving them much more publicity than they would have garnered on their own) at least they were well executed - simple arresting visual, minimal copy.

    Which is more than can be said for their spoofs - the latest one is even worse than the first two:

    Net, a bad idea, atrociously executed......
    So unfunny, I feel sorry for them
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Pulpstar said:

    A fowl poster.
    I'm really hoping it's an easter egg pun.

    Should I knock up a thread comparing them to the infamous Labour isn't working posters?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2014
    corporeal said:

    No. Because that's a % break down of party supporters. So you could say that UKIP's support is more evenly distributed, but the actual number of working class supporters would (I'd confidently suggest) be higher in Labour and probably Conservative as well.
    This is an EU Parliament poll. So I think UKIP might be edging it.

    Con 22%, Lab 30%, UKIP 27%
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    corporeal said:

    No. Because that's a % break down of party supporters. So you could say that UKIP's support is more evenly distributed, but the actual number of working class supporters would (I'd confidently suggest) be higher in Labour and probably Conservative as well.
    Ok so UKIP have the highest % of their party support coming from the working class would be a better way of putting it.

    The SWP are not the party of socialists because there are more socialists in the Labour party as a whole?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    They are about to lose their own pet argument about the cost of living "crisis".

    The point about this is that its very much a last redoubt argument. If the tories can defeat it, there really is nowhere to go.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited April 2014

    Brown's "inept oversight regime" was not the cause of the crisis, which, as the saying goes, started in America. It was a global crisis, not a British one.

    Nah. Brown created a lax regulatory regime which killed Frankfurt and drew so much US business to London that the US had to respond with an equally weak regime. Brown really was special: he found a way for Labour to screw not just our economy but also everybody else's.


    How many of those public sector jobs, (HMRC etc) will be coming back south of the border in the event of a yes vote?

    Lots and they will be planted in areas that create a new Scotland for Labour in England.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. PB, the McLaren is an odd monkey. Rather good in Australia, less so everywhere else. Cheers for the insight, I'll be sure to consider that alongside the mood music and practice times in Spain.

    Yes McLaren seemed to be going backwards but the Prof says big gains have been made in the simulations and wind tunnel. They will be tested before Barcelona to see if it works. He said that last year's car actually had the highest development potential of all the cars on the grid, and with another season developing that car they would have been at the front of the grid. He said it was incredibly stupid of them to push such an undeveloped design with just a single season left under those regs. This season he says that they have gone down a similar path but they won't be moving to next season's development prematurely like last year because the car will carry through to next year and until 2018 when the next major regulation changes are expected.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,360
    Mr. Pulpstar, stop egging them on.

    Mr. Taffys, didn't we see the bunker of the last redoubt? It's 'inflation is higher than wages, just not wages plus bonuses'.

    We should be grateful to Labour. By consecutively predicting things that won't happen they're a great set of predictive tools.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    And the ICM SINdy ref tables are up:

    http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/Scotsman_april_2014.pdf

    Excluding 'Don't Know'
    No lead:
    OA: +4
    M: -2
    F: +10
    ABC1: +16
    C1DE: -6

    Holyrood 2011
    Con: +80
    Lab: +44
    Lib: +62
    SNP: -70

    Among the 'Don't knows' - more likely to vote"
    Yes: 14
    No: 21
    DK: 65
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Slackbladder

    'How many of those public sector jobs, (HMRC etc) will be coming back south of the border in the event of a yes vote?'

    1,000 jobs from the Student Loan Company in Glasgow for a start.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    isam said:

    Ok so UKIP have the highest % of their party support coming from the working class would be a better way of putting it.

    The SWP are not the party of socialists because there are more socialists in the Labour party as a whole?
    You would call UKIP the party of the working class when more of the working class support another party?
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    This is an EU Parliament poll. So I think UKIP might be edging it.

    Con 22%, Lab 30%, UKIP 27%
    Ah right, then a possible argument (which in political campaigning terms means solid gold). Of course that's without getting into turnout adjustments etc.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    new thread
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,666

    The ICM Tables are up:

    http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/ST_april14_poll.pdf

    ...

    Cameron alternatives - net more likely to vote Conservative if leader was:
    Boris: -14 (Con: +6)
    May: -64
    Osborne: -70
    Gove: -82

    Quite astonishing figure for Gove there - I'm surprised that 82% have heard of him, let alone feel he'd affect their voting intention to the point that virtually everyone feels he'd make them less likely to vote Tory (Osborne not much better). Credit to Mike for spotting this months ago.

    <
    The dangers of an open ballot are all too obvious. "You want benefits / a tax cut? Well, let me just check the computer..."

    Alan Simpson MP used to have a copy of the marked register (which shows who voted, though of course not how) in his surgery. When constituents said, "I voted for you, you've got to do what I want" he'd say (if appropriate) "No you didn't" and enjoy the look of dismay. (Note the behaviour of a man with a safe seat - MPs in marginals never make fun of constituents, however tempting)

    "New Populus VI: Lab 36 (+1); Cons 33 (-1); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (-1); Oth 7 (-1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140422 "

    twitter.com/PopulusPolls/status/458521723684786176

    Not much happening, as usual.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,992

    How many of those public sector jobs, (HMRC etc) will be coming back south of the border in the event of a yes vote?
    A lot less than the public sector jobs coming North for sure
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,992
    Charles said:

    I've spent my career in the sector & have a pretty good grip on who did what to whom and when during the financial crisis.

    You are wrong. Get over it
    Keep filling your pockets Charles and take that golden spoon out of your mouth now and again as you rob the poor.
  • The big problem with postal voting isn't that it happens early. The big problem is you don't know who cast the vote. The same as with internet/mobile voting. Once you take away the controlled conditions you invite fraud on a massive scale.
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