Election Data map maker now offering commercial services.
"I am able to identify UKIP-friendly zones in your electoral division/ward/constituency by using demographics and previous voting behaviour. These maps are available at £10 each. "
F1 - I'm told that Eric Boullier is being sincere, McLaren might be back in business for Barcelona. They have gained around 1.4s in the CFD model putting them at the front of the Mercedes customerteams. Still behind RBR and Ferrari though but not by too much. Same source as always. He said the new order for Barcelona would be Merc, RBR, Fer = McL, FOI, Torro Rosso then the rest.
Interesting analysis. But on one small point, is that public sector figure really true? I seem to recall Scotland actually having a smaller proportion of public sector employees than the UK average.
Northern Ireland has the most, with 27.7 per cent of all workers on the public payroll. This is closely followed by 25.7 per cent in Wales and 23.5 per cent in Scotland. Across the country fewer than one in fi e workers – 19.4 per cent, or 5.7 million people – are reliant on state jobs thanks to Coalition cuts.
Many thanks for that. 23% was the sort of figure I had had in mind. Also worth remembering that Scottish Water etc and much of the health service are still not privatised. Of course, if we are talking about public sector pensions (which are now in any case very different from what they used to be) this is not strictly relevant.
I have tried to find what I had read, without any luck, but did find this Scottish Pmt briefing paper (by the equivalent of the HoC Library)
Carnyx, also English numbers do not count the millions of jobs that they outsourced so are far from accurate. Typical unionist accounting tactics.
To quote the Scottish Parliament paper:
The figures show that the share of public sector jobs in Scotland was generally 3-4 percentage points more than in the UK. The gap narrowed a little up to 2011 but widened in 2012, this was not solely due to the reclassification of colleges in England.
Scotland has been a bit higher at times but the numbers are dubious. They are not comparing like for like so it is very difficult if not impossible to get a real picture. Flippant statements such as the earlier poster made are typical of the attempt to paint Scotland as a subsidy junkie and then use differing scales to prove they are correct. Even trying to compare to when labour was in power is rubbish when you consider outsourcing and subcontracting etc that flatters to deceive in certain areas.
How many of those public sector jobs, (HMRC etc) will be coming back south of the border in the event of a yes vote?
Election Data map maker now offering commercial services.
"I am able to identify UKIP-friendly zones in your electoral division/ward/constituency by using demographics and previous voting behaviour. These maps are available at £10 each. "
How many of those public sector jobs, (HMRC etc) will be coming back south of the border in the event of a yes vote?
Scotland will still need a customs and revenue service after independence. If you think they can collect taxes and duties with fewer personnel than under the UK then that's all the better surely.
''Uncontrolled immigration isn't the right amount in my opinion.''
One problem UKIP might have is that they are making much of EU immigration. They say very little about non-EU immigration, and yet this seems to incense potential supporters at least as much.
1. UKIP want to leave the EU. That's the priority. Immigration is just one of the arguments to use.
2. The government can claim they are/have addressed concerns about uncontrolled immigration from non-EU countries.
Mr. PB, the McLaren is an odd monkey. Rather good in Australia, less so everywhere else. Cheers for the insight, I'll be sure to consider that alongside the mood music and practice times in Spain.
The picture is taken in the Winter Gardens, and the talk will be in the city centre. You could safely put your mortgage on Labour winning here (Sheffield Central), and is as much Clegg's backyard as Croydon North is the Conservatives'.
So Barclay's borrowed money to keep Lehman Brothers afloat at the request of the fed. And RBS and BoS got money to avoid them having to close their US offshoots....
In no case does this show your argument that the Fed bailed out UK banks, they bailed out their own (local) banks some of whom happened to be subsidiaries with British parent companies (albeit badly run overexpanded, Scottish banks) to avoid the parent companies pulling the plug on them....
I told him this a couple of weeks ago, but he chose to ignore it.
You boys like to twist the facts, the US bailed out UK banks and in future they will do the same. UK also bailed out Ireland and Iceland. Get over it and stop trying to peddle untruths by using weasely words.
I've spent my career in the sector & have a pretty good grip on who did what to whom and when during the financial crisis.
Full marks for Nige coming up to kick off his campaign in the People's Republic.
What ever the merits of the UKIP poster strategy (and full marks to that idiot Labour MP screaming 'racist' and giving them much more publicity than they would have garnered on their own) at least they were well executed - simple arresting visual, minimal copy.
Which is more than can be said for their spoofs - the latest one is even worse than the first two:
Full marks for Nige coming up to kick off his campaign in the People's Republic.
What ever the merits of the UKIP poster strategy (and full marks to that idiot Labour MP screaming 'racist' and giving them much more publicity than they would have garnered on their own) at least they were well executed - simple arresting visual, minimal copy.
Which is more than can be said for their spoofs - the latest one is even worse than the first two:
What was your age last birthday (mean): Con: 48 Lab: 44 LibD: 45 UKIP: 54
Social Class (AB/C1/C2/DE) > ABC1/C2DE Con: 36/30/17/17 > 66/34 Lab: 26/31/18/25 > 57/43 LibD: 38/30/14/18 >68/32 UKIP: 24/24/26/25 > 48/51
There's nowt posh as a Lib Dem......
The problem with UKIP is that they attract support equally from all social classes
Extremists!
I don't really follow what these letters mean but am I right in saying that UKIP would be the party of the working class based on these figures?
No. Because that's a % break down of party supporters. So you could say that UKIP's support is more evenly distributed, but the actual number of working class supporters would (I'd confidently suggest) be higher in Labour and probably Conservative as well.
"UKIP launches our European Election Campaign in Sheffield today"
Is there a particular reason to pick Sheffield?
Why not ?
Full marks for Nige coming up to kick off his campaign in the People's Republic.
What ever the merits of the UKIP poster strategy (and full marks to that idiot Labour MP screaming 'racist' and giving them much more publicity than they would have garnered on their own) at least they were well executed - simple arresting visual, minimal copy.
Which is more than can be said for their spoofs - the latest one is even worse than the first two:
Full marks for Nige coming up to kick off his campaign in the People's Republic.
What ever the merits of the UKIP poster strategy (and full marks to that idiot Labour MP screaming 'racist' and giving them much more publicity than they would have garnered on their own) at least they were well executed - simple arresting visual, minimal copy.
Which is more than can be said for their spoofs - the latest one is even worse than the first two:
Net, a bad idea, atrociously executed......
A fowl poster.
I'm really hoping it's an easter egg pun.
Should I knock up a thread comparing them to the infamous Labour isn't working posters?
What was your age last birthday (mean): Con: 48 Lab: 44 LibD: 45 UKIP: 54
Social Class (AB/C1/C2/DE) > ABC1/C2DE Con: 36/30/17/17 > 66/34 Lab: 26/31/18/25 > 57/43 LibD: 38/30/14/18 >68/32 UKIP: 24/24/26/25 > 48/51
There's nowt posh as a Lib Dem......
The problem with UKIP is that they attract support equally from all social classes
Extremists!
I don't really follow what these letters mean but am I right in saying that UKIP would be the party of the working class based on these figures?
No. Because that's a % break down of party supporters. So you could say that UKIP's support is more evenly distributed, but the actual number of working class supporters would (I'd confidently suggest) be higher in Labour and probably Conservative as well.
This is an EU Parliament poll. So I think UKIP might be edging it.
What was your age last birthday (mean): Con: 48 Lab: 44 LibD: 45 UKIP: 54
Social Class (AB/C1/C2/DE) > ABC1/C2DE Con: 36/30/17/17 > 66/34 Lab: 26/31/18/25 > 57/43 LibD: 38/30/14/18 >68/32 UKIP: 24/24/26/25 > 48/51
There's nowt posh as a Lib Dem......
The problem with UKIP is that they attract support equally from all social classes
Extremists!
I don't really follow what these letters mean but am I right in saying that UKIP would be the party of the working class based on these figures?
No. Because that's a % break down of party supporters. So you could say that UKIP's support is more evenly distributed, but the actual number of working class supporters would (I'd confidently suggest) be higher in Labour and probably Conservative as well.
Ok so UKIP have the highest % of their party support coming from the working class would be a better way of putting it.
The SWP are not the party of socialists because there are more socialists in the Labour party as a whole?
Brown's "inept oversight regime" was not the cause of the crisis, which, as the saying goes, started in America. It was a global crisis, not a British one.
Nah. Brown created a lax regulatory regime which killed Frankfurt and drew so much US business to London that the US had to respond with an equally weak regime. Brown really was special: he found a way for Labour to screw not just our economy but also everybody else's.
Mr. PB, the McLaren is an odd monkey. Rather good in Australia, less so everywhere else. Cheers for the insight, I'll be sure to consider that alongside the mood music and practice times in Spain.
Yes McLaren seemed to be going backwards but the Prof says big gains have been made in the simulations and wind tunnel. They will be tested before Barcelona to see if it works. He said that last year's car actually had the highest development potential of all the cars on the grid, and with another season developing that car they would have been at the front of the grid. He said it was incredibly stupid of them to push such an undeveloped design with just a single season left under those regs. This season he says that they have gone down a similar path but they won't be moving to next season's development prematurely like last year because the car will carry through to next year and until 2018 when the next major regulation changes are expected.
What was your age last birthday (mean): Con: 48 Lab: 44 LibD: 45 UKIP: 54
Social Class (AB/C1/C2/DE) > ABC1/C2DE Con: 36/30/17/17 > 66/34 Lab: 26/31/18/25 > 57/43 LibD: 38/30/14/18 >68/32 UKIP: 24/24/26/25 > 48/51
There's nowt posh as a Lib Dem......
The problem with UKIP is that they attract support equally from all social classes
Extremists!
I don't really follow what these letters mean but am I right in saying that UKIP would be the party of the working class based on these figures?
No. Because that's a % break down of party supporters. So you could say that UKIP's support is more evenly distributed, but the actual number of working class supporters would (I'd confidently suggest) be higher in Labour and probably Conservative as well.
Ok so UKIP have the highest % of their party support coming from the working class would be a better way of putting it.
The SWP are not the party of socialists because there are more socialists in the Labour party as a whole?
You would call UKIP the party of the working class when more of the working class support another party?
What was your age last birthday (mean): Con: 48 Lab: 44 LibD: 45 UKIP: 54
Social Class (AB/C1/C2/DE) > ABC1/C2DE Con: 36/30/17/17 > 66/34 Lab: 26/31/18/25 > 57/43 LibD: 38/30/14/18 >68/32 UKIP: 24/24/26/25 > 48/51
There's nowt posh as a Lib Dem......
The problem with UKIP is that they attract support equally from all social classes
Extremists!
I don't really follow what these letters mean but am I right in saying that UKIP would be the party of the working class based on these figures?
No. Because that's a % break down of party supporters. So you could say that UKIP's support is more evenly distributed, but the actual number of working class supporters would (I'd confidently suggest) be higher in Labour and probably Conservative as well.
This is an EU Parliament poll. So I think UKIP might be edging it.
Con 22%, Lab 30%, UKIP 27%
Ah right, then a possible argument (which in political campaigning terms means solid gold). Of course that's without getting into turnout adjustments etc.
Cameron alternatives - net more likely to vote Conservative if leader was: Boris: -14 (Con: +6) May: -64 Osborne: -70 Gove: -82
Quite astonishing figure for Gove there - I'm surprised that 82% have heard of him, let alone feel he'd affect their voting intention to the point that virtually everyone feels he'd make them less likely to vote Tory (Osborne not much better). Credit to Mike for spotting this months ago.
< The dangers of an open ballot are all too obvious. "You want benefits / a tax cut? Well, let me just check the computer..."
Alan Simpson MP used to have a copy of the marked register (which shows who voted, though of course not how) in his surgery. When constituents said, "I voted for you, you've got to do what I want" he'd say (if appropriate) "No you didn't" and enjoy the look of dismay. (Note the behaviour of a man with a safe seat - MPs in marginals never make fun of constituents, however tempting)
Interesting analysis. But on one small point, is that public sector figure really true? I seem to recall Scotland actually having a smaller proportion of public sector employees than the UK average.
Northern Ireland has the most, with 27.7 per cent of all workers on the public payroll. This is closely followed by 25.7 per cent in Wales and 23.5 per cent in Scotland. Across the country fewer than one in fi e workers – 19.4 per cent, or 5.7 million people – are reliant on state jobs thanks to Coalition cuts.
Many thanks for that. 23% was the sort of figure I had had in mind. Also worth remembering that Scottish Water etc and much of the health service are still not privatised. Of course, if we are talking about public sector pensions (which are now in any case very different from what they used to be) this is not strictly relevant.
I have tried to find what I had read, without any luck, but did find this Scottish Pmt briefing paper (by the equivalent of the HoC Library)
Carnyx, also English numbers do not count the millions of jobs that they outsourced so are far from accurate. Typical unionist accounting tactics.
To quote the Scottish Parliament paper:
The figures show that the share of public sector jobs in Scotland was generally 3-4 percentage points more than in the UK. The gap narrowed a little up to 2011 but widened in 2012, this was not solely due to the reclassification of colleges in England.
Scotland has been a bit higher at times but the numbers are dubious. They are not comparing like for like so it is very difficult if not impossible to get a real picture. Flippant statements such as the earlier poster made are typical of the attempt to paint Scotland as a subsidy junkie and then use differing scales to prove they are correct. Even trying to compare to when labour was in power is rubbish when you consider outsourcing and subcontracting etc that flatters to deceive in certain areas.
How many of those public sector jobs, (HMRC etc) will be coming back south of the border in the event of a yes vote?
A lot less than the public sector jobs coming North for sure
So Barclay's borrowed money to keep Lehman Brothers afloat at the request of the fed. And RBS and BoS got money to avoid them having to close their US offshoots....
In no case does this show your argument that the Fed bailed out UK banks, they bailed out their own (local) banks some of whom happened to be subsidiaries with British parent companies (albeit badly run overexpanded, Scottish banks) to avoid the parent companies pulling the plug on them....
I told him this a couple of weeks ago, but he chose to ignore it.
You boys like to twist the facts, the US bailed out UK banks and in future they will do the same. UK also bailed out Ireland and Iceland. Get over it and stop trying to peddle untruths by using weasely words.
I've spent my career in the sector & have a pretty good grip on who did what to whom and when during the financial crisis.
You are wrong. Get over it
Keep filling your pockets Charles and take that golden spoon out of your mouth now and again as you rob the poor.
The big problem with postal voting isn't that it happens early. The big problem is you don't know who cast the vote. The same as with internet/mobile voting. Once you take away the controlled conditions you invite fraud on a massive scale.
Comments
"I am able to identify UKIP-friendly zones in your electoral division/ward/constituency by using demographics and previous voting behaviour. These maps are available at £10 each. "
http://election-data.blogspot.hu/2014/04/ordering-ukip-maps.html
http://www.theguardian.com/travel/2014/apr/22/nepal-everest-talks-sherpa-strike-avalanche
Looking at a map, it's adjacent to Rotherham. Perhaps it's a media/transport centre for the region?
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@53.3957166,-1.4994562,11z
(bottom left of the 2009 EU Parliament result map below)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Gh4A41ctBVw/U1AcDAKYp1I/AAAAAAAABSg/1YZjpPdLdR8/s1600/UKIPYORK09.png
http://tinyurl.com/n8czq92
Full marks for Nige coming up to kick off his campaign in the People's Republic.
2. The government can claim they are/have addressed concerns about uncontrolled immigration from non-EU countries.
Mr. PB, the McLaren is an odd monkey. Rather good in Australia, less so everywhere else. Cheers for the insight, I'll be sure to consider that alongside the mood music and practice times in Spain.
What was your age last birthday (mean):
Con: 48
Lab: 44
LibD: 45
UKIP: 54
Social Class (AB/C1/C2/DE) > ABC1/C2DE
Con: 36/30/17/17 > 66/34
Lab: 26/31/18/25 > 57/43
LibD: 38/30/14/18 >68/32
UKIP: 24/24/26/25 > 48/51
There's nowt posh as a Lib Dem......
You are wrong. Get over it
Extremists!
I don't really follow what these letters mean but am I right in saying that UKIP would be the party of the working class based on these figures?
Which is more than can be said for their spoofs - the latest one is even worse than the first two:
https://twitter.com/UkipBillboards/status/458318104922423297/photo/1
Net, a bad idea, atrociously executed......
Also, 'overrun' is one word.
Dangerous times for Labour. They are about to lose their own pet argument about the cost of living "crisis".
Should I knock up a thread comparing them to the infamous Labour isn't working posters?
Con 22%, Lab 30%, UKIP 27%
The SWP are not the party of socialists because there are more socialists in the Labour party as a whole?
The point about this is that its very much a last redoubt argument. If the tories can defeat it, there really is nowhere to go.
Mr. Taffys, didn't we see the bunker of the last redoubt? It's 'inflation is higher than wages, just not wages plus bonuses'.
We should be grateful to Labour. By consecutively predicting things that won't happen they're a great set of predictive tools.
http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/Scotsman_april_2014.pdf
Excluding 'Don't Know'
No lead:
OA: +4
M: -2
F: +10
ABC1: +16
C1DE: -6
Holyrood 2011
Con: +80
Lab: +44
Lib: +62
SNP: -70
Among the 'Don't knows' - more likely to vote"
Yes: 14
No: 21
DK: 65
'How many of those public sector jobs, (HMRC etc) will be coming back south of the border in the event of a yes vote?'
1,000 jobs from the Student Loan Company in Glasgow for a start.