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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Northern Ireland Westminster Election 2019 – Review And Insigh
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Northern Ireland Westminster Election 2019 – Review And Insight
First and foremost, congratulations to all 18 winning candidates and commiserations to all the losing ones.
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Thus, there's a good argument to be made for taking more decisions over the heads of Northern Ireland's politicians, in the hope that removing as many contentious issues from play as possible will make it easier for them to agree to resume power-sharing. Item number one: the Irish Language Act.
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1207550627334762496?s=21
The fullest significance of these facts lies in what it says about the reasoning of voters who made that journey. It is common on the left simply to caricature the Tory party and its voters as either bigoted or deluded. Doing this absolves them from ever having to think carefully about what the Tories stand for, or why people vote for them. After a result like last week’s it might be wiser to experiment for a while by treating the Tory party as a rational organisation, and its voters as people making reasoned decisions.
Does anyone know how Keir Starmer became a multi millionaire (if indeed he is)
No, no idea (in fairness some of that may be in property assets).
Labour is accused of 'vile hypocrisy' for tax raid on buy-to-let landlords despite a quarter of their front bench owning second homes
Emily Thornberry owns three properties in her multimillion-pound portfolio
Keir Starmer owns a £1.75million house in London and a £600,000 Surrey home
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7465599/Labour-accused-hypocrisy-raid-landlords-despite-quarter-bench-owning-second-homes.html
And his Wiki entry has just been edited to remove "multi millionaire".
Carried out from an IP address in Northwest London:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/18/sir-keir-starmers-wikipedia-page-edited-ahead-expected-labour/
Does he send his kids to the local comp one wonders. Amazing how the left enjoy wealth but try to airbrush it out.
Trouble is I’m carrying £95 of bookie bets round my ankle for no-hopers, so i really need to be +£100 on Betfair to make a decent profit (except for RLB where I made a good £25 bet with bookies at 15).
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/856434684896710656?s=20
Married 2007, 2 kids - so I guess they may be coming up to secondary education shortly...
It may also follow that it is wrong to place too much weight on the idea that those who swung from Labour to Conservative have merely “lent” their votes to Boris Johnson. Brexit is certainly a top priority for these voters, and Johnson’s early reaction to his victory included a recognition that these votes were conditional. But these swing voters do not seem to be Brexit obsessives to the exclusion of all other issues. They also have some confidence in Johnson himself (at least in comparison to Corbyn) and they think the Tories would run the economy better.
If that is correct, then these newly won votes could prove to be on permanent loan, and any new Labour leader will have their work cut out to win them back. The Johnson government is focused on these voters. The Queen’s speech and the budget will be aimed at retaining them. Tony Blair predicted yesterday that, after Brexit, Johnson will try to define the Tories on the centre ground. Blair is probably right. Labour, meanwhile, will first have to regain the right to be heard and then have to set out its own measures to regain their trust. In this, precisely because they are the government, all the cards are in the Tories’ hand.
Of course its perfectly ok for the left to smear Boris about his private life ...
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1207381124189700096?s=20
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50821542
I know the media like to big this up, but in all honesty I think Labour can afford to make the wrong choice provided they are prepared to change if it isn't working out.
In some ways, that's the more important issue at stake. We've no way of knowing who will be most effective against Boris. But whoever wins should commit to resigning if they aren't cutting through.
Terror of Corbyn was certainly a factor in driving millions of voters into the arms of the Tories last week.
Whether that holds fast or not next time is something we simply do not know.
That's utter tosh too. The whole leadership of Labour is just a bit of entertainment which will be enjoyed immensely whist they politically stab each other in the back. Keir Starmer is a lightweight with little political backstory bar being given a sinecure of a seat in 2015. His backstory as DPP is hardly stellar.
Something that Labour completely failed to do, being seemingly far more interested in internal party machinations than presenting themselves as a convincing alternative government. Even now, they're talking up complete lightweights like R L-B as leader - how's she doing to convince a single Tory to vote for her?
Of course he is reasonably intelligent and articulate. Labour could well do worse. But fear? He's not as smart as Ed Miliband, his time at the DPP was a flop, his maneuverings on Brexit really didn't help the country or his party, the more he said he had passion the more it sounded like something that he needed to say. His attempts to suck up to the Corbynistas were cringeworthy and probably poorly judged. He might do as an interim leader for some of this Parliament but I can't see him running a successful election campaign.
Did they... Did they actually believe Boris when he said no PM would ever put a border down the Irish Sea?
Where they that thick?
The electoral system used is going to make this a difficult market to work out (hands up who got the 100/1 on Corbyn as nominations closed in 2015?), it depends much more on factional voting, union and shad cab endorsements, than strength of character or argument.
I am looking for either a Kinnock or John Smith figure.
There are Scottish Tories who seem to think that Boris Johnson won't sell them out if it's expedient for him to do so. Hope springs eternal, it seems.
I mean, come on.
Johnson has no concept of money and is already splashing it about without the remotest indication of where it’s going to come from. Has anyone come up with any credible ideas yet? And there’s no law that says the markets always give a Tory PM the benefit of the doubt. Javid has his work cut out, and there’s little sign of him trying to reign Johnson in.
The country’s most electorally successful leader of recent times was a lawyer.
Implying square root is going in on Starmers kids has deliberately nasty undertones, really poor show. Asking which kind of school his kids go to is beyond legitimate
Even in 2016, it seems Owen Smith got plenty of union support with unions such as GMB and USDAW backing him. The latter two are large enough to get a candidate over the 5% threshold.
You'd imagine that any unions who were anti-Corbyn then, are likely to be anti-Corbynite this time...
The worry for me as a member is that this system may reduce my choice quite a lot. Since we have AV, finest voting system known to humanity, we can afford to have more candidates on the ballot!
https://thecritic.co.uk/the-myth-of-the-red-wall/
Could I thank the Green Machine for a fascinating analysis, which is far too rare my side of the water.
What I wonder about is what happens when Boris presents his...... what was it 30+ pages Bill about withdrawal ...... and says 'Right, you've got two Parliamentary days to debate it'.
But to anyone who doesn't live in London or have a massive pension pot - 90% of the country - it's still a clear indication that he is one of 'them' rather than one of 'us'.
https://ig.ft.com/jeremy-corbyn-labour-inner-circles/
https://twitter.com/jreynoldsMP/status/1207580398739501058?s=20
I will still go though to wrap up the saga and while it will be OK ignore the hype, there are better movies out there at the moment
If they decide it's one more heave under someone who's not Corbyn, then we get someone like R L-B, and if they decide that they need to tack towards the more centrist floating votes then they go for someone like Starmer.
And the reviews for Cats are not kind - the Telegraph review is worth reading for it's cattiness.