politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer now surges in the Corbyn successor betting and now joi

The betdata.io chart shows another topsy-turvy day in the betting for next LAB leader. After appearing to be out of it the former DPP ex shadow BrexSec, Keir Starmer has in the eyes of punters at least moved to be a credible joint favourite. At the same time Loing-Bailey has slipped.
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/17/keir-starmer-labour-leadership-pitch-radical-government?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
You could've just stopped there. Long-Bailey is a shoo-in, unless somebody more Left-wing than her sneaks onto the ballot in which case they'll win instead.
Thanks, I'll be here all day.
I see Lamb has a new job. Top psyche Trust in the country. A good appointment.
https://twitter.com/normanlamb/status/1206989489081638912?s=19
Now loads of defeated Labour MPs are saying neither him nor any of his cronies have the decency to phone them up and offer apologises / support for them and their staff.
Turkey is allowing senior Hamas operatives to plot attacks against Israel from Istanbul, The Telegraph can disclose, as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan plays host to the terrorist group’s leaders.
Transcripts of Israeli police interrogations with suspects show that senior Hamas operatives are using Turkey’s largest city to direct operations in Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank, including an assassination attempt earlier this year on the mayor of Jerusalem.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/12/17/hamas-plots-attacks-israel-turkey-erdogan-turns-blind-eye/
It has amazed me how, as they progressed through their 70s and into their 80s many of my parent's generation become much more timid, less confident and more risk averse. Relatives who used to ooze confidence now ask me for my advice on the simplest of matters.
Maybe all have an equal right to vote - both those whose brains are still developing as well as those whose brains are slowly shrinking and dying?
This is Thomas Frank's "What's the Matter with Kansas?" book mapped onto the UK. Cultural issues over economics.
Says it all.
Nicola Sturgeon - net favourability...
With 2017 Con voters: -77
With 2016 Leave voters: -70
Leaving aside the question of whether or not Johnson's intransigence over Indyref2 can survive another Nat or Nat/Green majority at Holyrood come 2021, one gathers the impression that his new voter coalition will not exactly be distraught at his refusal to play ball with the First Minister.
Whether this also indicates that the Tory base is truly committed to the Union, or if it's more the case that they don't care and are simply disinclined to listen to Scottish special pleading, who can say? More research required.
And I'm not sure that the 2019 election was a fair reflection of the cultutal split in Britain. Corbyn's Labour and Swinson's LDs are both rather fringe examples, culturally.
I'M JUST SAYING.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway/2017/06/07/the-great-kansas-tax-cut-experiment-crashes-and-burns/
Fuck off! Judean Peoples' Front! We're the Peoples' Front of Judea. Judean Peoples Front! Wankers!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQsbgoJU_Vk
This election was the worst she has been though. Door step reaction utterly dire.
We are back to Corbyn being poison.
I think I may be a late developer but yes I can see I have improved on that front enormously since I was a callow 20-something. Sadly, at that age I never realised how poor my EQ levels were.
And he’s from London when Labour’s problem is up north.
Surely still a lay.
Likely / registered voters:
Approve: 44.5%
Disapprove: 51.7%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
- Terrible productivity growth since the recession
- Abysmal balance of payments figures
Until both of those quandaries are tackled, the idea that the conservatives or labour can bring any form of sustained prosperity to the Midlands & North are pie in the sky.
I doubt Nandy has been hanging out with the Brighton Bomber.
Thanks for clarification.
#stillbitter
I can never see the balance of payments figures ever improving now that we don't really make anything, unless Boris can sell his Singapore onThames idea. If he can't we will continue to sell imported fast-food burgers to each other until we can no longer aford to buy them.
This is what the people want.
Edit: too late!
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/dec/17/dominic-raab-urges-anna-sacoolas-to-do-the-right-thing
[sotto voce] "all the pieces fit"
She came over as measured, reflective, assured, sincere and well informed. She fielded questions adeptly, avoided the invitation to traduce colleagues and managed to communicate as a normal human being.
5/1 is available with Ladbrokes for next Labour party leader - 11/2 boosted price.
I’m on!
But the Tories are also racists will be the retort. The Tories brand of racism is one that touches a nerve in Rochdale and Rotherham. I may be outraged at 'letter boxes', and 'bank robbers' but there are people out there thinking 'letter boxes and bank robbers? Boris is on our page'!
I stand by that.
I wonder if the scale of the defeat is starting to make even Corbynistas have doubt about waving goodbye to power for purity of thought?
In which case, who do the splitters now take orders from? Is it possible that two left wingers on the ballot ends up with them letting Phillips/Nandy through the middle, even under AV?
Note that I am explicitly ignoring the possibility that they will be making their own minds up. In addition, I feel there's likely to be an as-yet-undeclared runner in this race. There's a tiny outside chance that it might be Claudia Webbe.
The Con voter in me says to want an unelectable Corbynista like Burgon, but I just can't put the Jewish people I know through another election like that.