politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer now surges in the Corbyn successor betting and now joi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer now surges in the Corbyn successor betting and now joint favourite with Long-Bailey
The betdata.io chart shows another topsy-turvy day in the betting for next LAB leader. After appearing to be out of it the former DPP ex shadow BrexSec, Keir Starmer has in the eyes of punters at least moved to be a credible joint favourite. At the same time Loing-Bailey has slipped.
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/17/keir-starmer-labour-leadership-pitch-radical-government?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
You could've just stopped there. Long-Bailey is a shoo-in, unless somebody more Left-wing than her sneaks onto the ballot in which case they'll win instead.
Thanks, I'll be here all day.
I see Lamb has a new job. Top psyche Trust in the country. A good appointment.
https://twitter.com/normanlamb/status/1206989489081638912?s=19
Now loads of defeated Labour MPs are saying neither him nor any of his cronies have the decency to phone them up and offer apologises / support for them and their staff.
Turkey is allowing senior Hamas operatives to plot attacks against Israel from Istanbul, The Telegraph can disclose, as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan plays host to the terrorist group’s leaders.
Transcripts of Israeli police interrogations with suspects show that senior Hamas operatives are using Turkey’s largest city to direct operations in Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank, including an assassination attempt earlier this year on the mayor of Jerusalem.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/12/17/hamas-plots-attacks-israel-turkey-erdogan-turns-blind-eye/
It has amazed me how, as they progressed through their 70s and into their 80s many of my parent's generation become much more timid, less confident and more risk averse. Relatives who used to ooze confidence now ask me for my advice on the simplest of matters.
Maybe all have an equal right to vote - both those whose brains are still developing as well as those whose brains are slowly shrinking and dying?
This is Thomas Frank's "What's the Matter with Kansas?" book mapped onto the UK. Cultural issues over economics.
Says it all.
Nicola Sturgeon - net favourability...
With 2017 Con voters: -77
With 2016 Leave voters: -70
Leaving aside the question of whether or not Johnson's intransigence over Indyref2 can survive another Nat or Nat/Green majority at Holyrood come 2021, one gathers the impression that his new voter coalition will not exactly be distraught at his refusal to play ball with the First Minister.
Whether this also indicates that the Tory base is truly committed to the Union, or if it's more the case that they don't care and are simply disinclined to listen to Scottish special pleading, who can say? More research required.
And I'm not sure that the 2019 election was a fair reflection of the cultutal split in Britain. Corbyn's Labour and Swinson's LDs are both rather fringe examples, culturally.
I'M JUST SAYING.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway/2017/06/07/the-great-kansas-tax-cut-experiment-crashes-and-burns/
Fuck off! Judean Peoples' Front! We're the Peoples' Front of Judea. Judean Peoples Front! Wankers!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQsbgoJU_Vk
Yes also an interesting counterpoint to the lower voting age arguments. Different cognitive abilities peak/decline at different times...
The researchers gathered data from nearly 50,000 subjects and found a very clear picture showing that each cognitive skill they were testing peaked at a different age. For example, raw speed in processing information appears to peak around age 18 or 19, then immediately starts to decline. Meanwhile, short-term memory continues to improve until around age 25, when it levels off and then begins to drop around age 35.
For the ability to evaluate other people’s emotional states, the peak occurred much later, in the 40s or 50s.
...
The researchers also included a vocabulary test, which serves as a measure of what is known as crystallized intelligence — the accumulation of facts and knowledge. These results confirmed that crystallized intelligence peaks later in life, as previously believed, but the researchers also found something unexpected: While data from the Weschler IQ tests suggested that vocabulary peaks in the late 40s, the new data showed a later peak, in the late 60s or early 70s.
This election was the worst she has been though. Door step reaction utterly dire.
We are back to Corbyn being poison.
I think I may be a late developer but yes I can see I have improved on that front enormously since I was a callow 20-something. Sadly, at that age I never realised how poor my EQ levels were.
And he’s from London when Labour’s problem is up north.
Surely still a lay.
Likely / registered voters:
Approve: 44.5%
Disapprove: 51.7%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
- Terrible productivity growth since the recession
- Abysmal balance of payments figures
Until both of those quandaries are tackled, the idea that the conservatives or labour can bring any form of sustained prosperity to the Midlands & North are pie in the sky.
I doubt Nandy has been hanging out with the Brighton Bomber.
Thanks for clarification.
#stillbitter
I can never see the balance of payments figures ever improving now that we don't really make anything, unless Boris can sell his Singapore onThames idea. If he can't we will continue to sell imported fast-food burgers to each other until we can no longer aford to buy them.
This is what the people want.
Edit: too late!
I wonder if in a way this kind of thinking is backwards and fighting the last war. With voting affiliation increasingly independent of social class and with Brexit out of the way, and if you had a good 4-5 years to reshape the direction of the Labour party however you wanted (whether the party membership / MPs would let you is a big "if" of course...) could you build a completely new coalition?
One thing in Labour's favour is they have lower brand-toxicity than the Tories - so there are more people out there who don't vote Labour who might be willing to switch for the right cause. And Labour did very well in some nationwide segments, e.g. parents, which reminded me of how Tony Blair managed to normalise Labour-voting among Middle England.
I'm not the kind of political genius to be able to put the jigsaw together. But I don't think one can rule out the possibility of there being some different angle of attack for Labour than just trying to cobble their old voter coalition together. Whether they can take it or not is another issue.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/dec/17/dominic-raab-urges-anna-sacoolas-to-do-the-right-thing
[sotto voce] "all the pieces fit"
She came over as measured, reflective, assured, sincere and well informed. She fielded questions adeptly, avoided the invitation to traduce colleagues and managed to communicate as a normal human being.
5/1 is available with Ladbrokes for next Labour party leader - 11/2 boosted price.
I’m on!
Having said that, this election was affected by a major and divisive policy issue in Brexit, but we all knew where the parties stood (or were struggling to figure out where they stood themselves!) well in advance, so we didn't need daily conferences to update us, and most of us had entrenched ourselves on our own sides on that policy split by then, so not a lot of persuasion was likely to happen during the campaign - the best the parties could do is persuade us "even if you don't like our Brexit policy, vote for us for this other reason". Which incidentally the Tories were more successful with, partly because Labour's domestic policy offering was offputting to many Tory remainers.
But the Tories are also racists will be the retort. The Tories brand of racism is one that touches a nerve in Rochdale and Rotherham. I may be outraged at 'letter boxes', and 'bank robbers' but there are people out there thinking 'letter boxes and bank robbers? Boris is on our page'!
I stand by that.
I wonder if the scale of the defeat is starting to make even Corbynistas have doubt about waving goodbye to power for purity of thought?
In which case, who do the splitters now take orders from? Is it possible that two left wingers on the ballot ends up with them letting Phillips/Nandy through the middle, even under AV?
Note that I am explicitly ignoring the possibility that they will be making their own minds up. In addition, I feel there's likely to be an as-yet-undeclared runner in this race. There's a tiny outside chance that it might be Claudia Webbe.
The Con voter in me says to want an unelectable Corbynista like Burgon, but I just can't put the Jewish people I know through another election like that.