politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Euro elections are being totally overshadowed by Scotla
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Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 57s
Excl - Labour hires David Axelrod - Architect of Obama's elections - more on #newsnight now0 -
So Arni won't be back?Tykejohnno said:Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour · 2 mins
David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist in 2008 and 2012 Presidential campaigns, has been hired by Miliband to advise Labour
Christ no,hope we don't get a British version of 'yes we can'0 -
Mr Briskin, I am sat here with a big smile on my face - thanks for that it is so appreciated.0
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"Christ no,hope we don't get a British version of 'yes we can' "
It's more the "grassroots" and "internet aware" that I'm scared of.0 -
If Sadiq Khan runs for London Mayor, his slogan will be "Yes We Khan"Tykejohnno said:Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour · 2 mins
David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist in 2008 and 2012 Presidential campaigns, has been hired by Miliband to advise Labour
Christ no,hope we don't get a British version of 'yes we can'0 -
Get your coat -lolTheScreamingEagles said:
If Sadiq Khan runs for London Mayor, his slogan will be "Yes We Khan"Tykejohnno said:Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour · 2 mins
David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist in 2008 and 2012 Presidential campaigns, has been hired by Miliband to advise Labour
Christ no,hope we don't get a British version of 'yes we can'
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If you've ever watched Friends, you know what you have to do when you get stung by a JellyfishTykejohnno said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 2 mins
Slime Minister: David Cameron stung by jellyfish on his hols in Lanzarote: http://bit.ly/1nsVgNT
Where's tim ;-)0 -
Average YouGov Lab lead this week (but with one poll still to go) = 4.0.
That is the 2nd lowest YouGov weekly average lead this year.
First 8 weeks of the year the lead was essentially dead flat with no trend.
Since then (oldest first):
6.4
5.0
4.6 (Budget week)
3.0
4.8
4.4
4.0 (This week, one poll to come)
Changes are obviously very marginal. But lead was at its lowest the week after the Budget, then it bounced back the week after, now it is edging down again very marginally.0 -
:cough:CockerSpaniel said:Evening all. I have lurked on this site for a few years now and am in awe of the wit, intelligence and entertainment that you regular guys post.
Anyhows:
Best concert I ever went to was "'One Minute Silence' and 'Slipknot'" at the London Docklands Arena, [delayed] 2002. If you were there you may have bumped in to me (or not...).
I lost a 'Homer Simpson' tee-shirt but won a free 'Slipknot' one. Sadly the latter would be breached if I breathed (whilst the former would still accommodate Demis Rossous as a super-star)!
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I don't think there will be another poll this week or on MondayMikeL said:Average YouGov Lab lead this week (but with one poll still to go) = 4.0.
That is the 2nd lowest YouGov weekly average lead this year.
First 8 weeks of the year the lead was essentially dead flat with no trend.
Since then (oldest first):
6.4
5.0
4.6 (Budget week)
3.0
4.8
4.4
4.0 (This week, one poll to come)
Changes are obviously very marginal. But lead was at its lowest the week after the Budget, then it bounced back the week after, now it is edging down again very marginally.
They generally don't poll over Good Friday and Easter Sunday/Monday.0 -
TSE - He needs a marine biologist (that was my attempt a Seinfeild reference)0
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OK, thanks a lot - so a smaller sample this week with only 4 polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't think there will be another poll this week or on MondayMikeL said:Average YouGov Lab lead this week (but with one poll still to go) = 4.0.
That is the 2nd lowest YouGov weekly average lead this year.
First 8 weeks of the year the lead was essentially dead flat with no trend.
Since then (oldest first):
6.4
5.0
4.6 (Budget week)
3.0
4.8
4.4
4.0 (This week, one poll to come)
Changes are obviously very marginal. But lead was at its lowest the week after the Budget, then it bounced back the week after, now it is edging down again very marginally.
They generally don't poll over Good Friday and Easter Sunday/Monday.0 -
The poor jellyfish was confused, it saw another spineless blob with only basic neuro functions, and tried to mate with it.
(Or not..... Suit yourselves)0 -
Sad news for English cricket - Trotty's taking an indefinite break from cricket.
Nick Sutton @suttonnick 15m
Friday's Daily Mail back page - "I can't go on" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/htafzFhgmr0 -
My Gf has just made me aware that the F1 starts on R5Live starts at 12:25am till 4.35am (digital only)0
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By the way, I often see on various blogs where people link to newspaper articles and the contributor is either pointing out the article as a means of supporting their argument or criticising the article as a vindication of the bias of that particular newspaper.
I know I am possibly, off topic here but are we influenced by the media that we access or are we using it as a justification for our own beliefs. Given that question, and we are on PB, does that influence our financial investments (punts as we say on Grand National Day)
Coming back on topic, is that why Indyref is getting more attention than the Euros? People are more interested in taking a view on the potential Scottish Independence subject than electing someone (and apart from the political activists) who nobody knows to the European Parliament0 -
Oops, 2 posts out of 2 for typos - I remember when this was called the lagershed.0
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What should that Major Response be? Surely you're not advocating a military campaign by the West?Socrates said:Oh look, after we did nothing to Putin's annexation of Crimea, he is now talking aggressively about his rights to eastern Ukraine:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/18/world/europe/russia-ukraine.html?_r=0
And then when we do nothing in response to him taking eastern Ukraine, he'll take the whole country. And then when he's re-established the whole country as a new puppet state, smothering the democratic freedoms of tens of millions, we'll do nothing. Then he'll start talking about the Baltic states and we'll realise we need to take a major response.
Smart politicans would just take the major response to begin with, as we'll have to ultimately doing it anyway, but without losing Ukraine first.
But then we don't have smart politicians, we have PR-obsessed muppets.
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[and we are on PB, does that influence our financial investments]
The concept is that we all make loadsamoney!!!!
"Coming back on topic, is that why Indyref is getting more attention than the Euros?"
I'm not sure it is getting more attention - I just think OGH was in Scotland.
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Welcome CockerSpaniel. I am not sure about the rest of the UK, but it certainly feels like it is wall to wall coverage of the Indy Ref debate up here in Scotland to the exclusion of pretty much everything else right now.CockerSpaniel said:
By the way, I often see on various blogs where people link to newspaper articles and the contributor is either pointing out the article as a means of supporting their argument or criticising the article as a vindication of the bias of that particular newspaper.
I know I am possibly, off topic here but are we influenced by the media that we access or are we using it as a justification for our own beliefs. Given that question, and we are on PB, does that influence our financial investments (punts as we say on Grand National Day)
Coming back on topic, is that why Indyref is getting more attention than the Euros? People are more interested in taking a view on the potential Scottish Independence subject than electing someone (and apart from the political activists) who nobody knows to the European Parliament0 -
are we influenced by the media that we access or are we using it as a justification for our own beliefs
Both. We gravitate to media that justifies the positions we are leaning toward, reinforcing our own beliefs. Does that impact our financial investments? Almost certainly, unless people are smart, hence people making money off suckers who desperately cling to the belief their side/person will win even if all rational evidence points to the contrary, and back that with their wallets. I am not that smart, so avoid making bets in most cases as I doubt I can seperate what I want to happen with making an objective call on the odds.
I am certain IndyRef will result in Yes, but I wouldn't actually want to win money on that one, though perhaps I should rethink it - making some money off it might make me feel a bit better afterwards.
No-one is interested in the Euros because they mean nothing of any significance. Even if the Parliament has more powers now, which few may be aware of, the faction sizes will remain about the same, the politics will remain the same, the goal of the organization will remain the same, and the vast majority of power and influence remains with the bureaucrats anyway, and outside of Daniel Hannan, how many MEPs could even the average politically aware person name? As you say, no-one knows them, whereas Indyref is, for all the 'I don't care/it's Scotland's business' talk out there, very relevant and significant even if apathy is still the result for many.
Night all.0 -
Are you kidding? Labour sleeping soundly on 35% and a 2 point lead with more than a year to go before the election?kle4 said:
Only after the damage has already been done to the other lot. Until Labour actually fall behind though, if it ever happens, they'll sleep soundly.Tykejohnno said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 49 secs
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead now just two points, plus highest rating for UKIP since last Nov: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 11%, UKIP 15%
ukip taking votes from labour - 'chortle'
The reds have probably already lost their lead in England and Wales and are now relying on Scotland to stay ahead, which isn't a great position to be in at present.0 -
"I am certain IndyRef will result in Yes, but I wouldn't actually want to win money on that one, though perhaps I should rethink it - making some money off it might make me feel a bit better afterwards."
5/2 with Ladbrokes
http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/politics0 -
Morrisons? Surely not, it has to be the fish counter at Waitrose, where anyone can get stung.peter_from_putney said:Tykejohnno said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 2 mins
David Cameron stung by jellyfish on his hols in Lanzarote: http://bit.ly/1nsVgNT
Where's tim ;-)
That would never have happened at the fish counter in Morrisons.
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AndyJS Not quite, according to the latest yougov Labour leads in Wales and every English region (including London) with the exception of the South, helped by UKIP. Indeed, Labour has a larger lead in the north of England than in Scotland0
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Those that are to old to fight are the most keen on war.0
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Yeh dude! We'll wish you luck as we wave you goodbye.saddened said:
You will promise to let us know when you are leaving to fight, so we can come and wave you off at the station.Socrates said:Oh look, after we did nothing to Putin's annexation of Crimea, he is now talking aggressively about his rights to eastern Ukraine:
.0 -
If a Lib Dem had insulted Cameron like that it'd have been used by some Tories on PB as evidence the Lib Dems were 'unfit to govern' or some such thing.fitalass said:Twitter
Iain Duncan Smith MP @IDS_MP 22m
The PM has been hurt by a spineless creature that drifts without aim or purpose. Nick Clegg has yet to apologise.0 -
Spoof account isn't it?corporeal said:
If a Lib Dem had insulted Cameron like that it'd have been used by some Tories on PB as evidence the Lib Dems were 'unfit to govern' or some such thing.fitalass said:Twitter
Iain Duncan Smith MP @IDS_MP 22m
The PM has been hurt by a spineless creature that drifts without aim or purpose. Nick Clegg has yet to apologise.0 -
Is the jellyfish OK?Tykejohnno said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 2 mins
Slime Minister: David Cameron stung by jellyfish on his hols in Lanzarote: http://bit.ly/1nsVgNT
Where's tim ;-)
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I don't know?corporeal said:
If a Lib Dem had insulted Cameron like that it'd have been used by some Tories on PB as evidence the Lib Dems were 'unfit to govern' or some such thing.fitalass said:Twitter
Iain Duncan Smith MP @IDS_MP 22m
The PM has been hurt by a spineless creature that drifts without aim or purpose. Nick Clegg has yet to apologise.0 -
Ukip still unprompted with you gov?0
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Interesting. I find it difficult to believe Labour are ahead in, for example, the Eastern region when their national lead is only 2 points.HYUFD said:AndyJS Not quite, according to the latest yougov Labour leads in Wales and every English region (including London) with the exception of the South, helped by UKIP. Indeed, Labour has a larger lead in the north of England than in Scotland
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I think their EU Parliament poll prompts for UKIP, but their Westminster poll does not.isam said:Ukip still unprompted with you gov?
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It's a muck aboutcorporeal said:
I don't know?corporeal said:
If a Lib Dem had insulted Cameron like that it'd have been used by some Tories on PB as evidence the Lib Dems were 'unfit to govern' or some such thing.fitalass said:Twitter
Iain Duncan Smith MP @IDS_MP 22m
The PM has been hurt by a spineless creature that drifts without aim or purpose. Nick Clegg has yet to apologise.0 -
Did the jellyfish report the collision, think it was making a necessary but uncomfortable coupling, be part of a hard working family or just simply trying to get away from Europe. On the other hand it may just have wanted to go it alone0
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:note-to-posters:
Once you hit over 100 posts - even if you joined yesterday - the "grown-ups" will see you as fair targets. A suggestion: Post more intelligently or post less.... :PNo 'newbies' were harmed in this post. If any 'newbie' feels they are a victim then please inform the OGH helpline @ mailto:auntie-hortence@attic.pbpoliticalbetting.com.
[Posts will not be charged.]0 -
Andy JS - Labour leads in London, the Midlands and Wales and the North but not in the rest of the south. Eastern is probably part Midlands/part South
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/2v6x8yrp2a/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-160414.pdf0 -
And this is the latest poll with a 2% lead? Hmm, just doesn't ring true to me. Normally if Labour were only 2% ahead nationally they wouldn't be ahead in the southern and midland regions.HYUFD said:Andy JS - Labour leads in London, the Midlands and Wales and the North but not in the rest of the south. Eastern is probably part Midlands/part South
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/2v6x8yrp2a/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-160414.pdf0 -
HYUFD's data are from the previous day (6-point lead). I doubt if we should analyse either that or the latest 2-point lead poll down to regional subsamples...
The IDS account is indeed a well-known spoof.
Good night all - and welcome to Cocker!0 -
Will we have any EU Parliament polls in the Sunday papers?0
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AndyJS/NP This is the latest poll on the yougov website, even if the national lead has tightened I doubt the regional picture will have changed much in one day. The Tories lead in the south, the Midlands reflects the national picture, so if Labour lead nationally they probably lead in the Midlands0
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I see that one Brian Coleman is standing for election (presumably as an independent) in Barnet in May.
That will be a result worth waiting up for. Perhaps at the pbc May drinks we can have a collection for everyone who is standing against him?0 -
If people aren't particularly interested in the Euro elections, it could benefit UKIP because their voters are the most enthusiastic about turning out at present and a lowish turnout would therefore work in their favour.0
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My mum knows German quite well so I could ask her.NickPalmer said:We've had quite a few MPs here on a one-off basis, but the ones I knew felt it was a bit high-risk to do regularly. IIRC Stewart got the tone wrong by just rebroadcasting Tory attack lines, and ran into a hail of tim derision with nobody particularly rushing to defend him.
By the way, I'm stumped on an insurance translation with this medical treatment: "medizinische Umschläge". Anyone got any idea what the English might be? I assume it's one of those alternative thingies where you get wrapped in a damp blanket, but what do we call them?0 -
I was never a fan of Stewart Jackson's style on PB. But lets just remember that he actually left the site only after Tim deliberately targeted him by using his wife, something you have glibly glossed over this evening!NickPalmer said:
We've had quite a few MPs here on a one-off basis, but the ones I knew felt it was a bit high-risk to do regularly. IIRC Stewart got the tone wrong by just rebroadcasting Tory attack lines, and ran into a hail of tim derision with nobody particularly rushing to defend him.
By the way, I'm stumped on an insurance translation with this medical treatment: "medizinische Umschläge". Anyone got any idea what the English might be? I assume it's one of those alternative thingies where you get wrapped in a damp blanket, but what do we call them?
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Oops, yes Andy, its a spoof account run by another well known tweeter. I just thought the tweet was amusing.AndyJS said:0
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Is it not something like this? https://www.ciamedical.com/self-seal-sterile-envelope-3-3x9-5-1000-bx.htmlNickPalmer said:By the way, I'm stumped on an insurance translation with this medical treatment: "medizinische Umschläge". Anyone got any idea what the English might be? I assume it's one of those alternative thingies where you get wrapped in a damp blanket, but what do we call them?
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Good morning. Here is the news from 210 years ago.
The Sun newspaper, Wednesday 18th April, 1804
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I bought that newspaper for £3 at an auction in 1983. I have always wondered whether Mr Crossweller got his horse & cart back (page 1, top left)0
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"Third officer, not captain, at helm when S.Korean ferry capsized":
http://www.trust.org/item/20140418011829-01dox0 -
Insomniacs of the world unite....NickPalmer said:By the way, I'm stumped on an insurance translation with this medical treatment: "medizinische Umschläge". Anyone got any idea what the English might be? I assume it's one of those alternative thingies where you get wrapped in a damp blanket, but what do we call them?
My (German) wife says medical envelopes, but isn't particularly sure what it is.
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I wish the links could be live without actually putting them on the page. The inventors of Vanilla don't seem to have thought of that possibility.JohnLoony said:Page 4
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