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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll suggests SNP gains from LAB and C

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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    - “ Even Stuart Dickson admits the SNP will not top 40% and Scottish polls always underestimate the SCon vote.”

    That’s not quite what I said, but correct gist.
    I see the Tory surge is in full flow, frothers will be gnashing their teeth, HYFUD will be rolling out that it is less than 2015 so Tory gains by the barrow load. How SNP can keep declining upwards baffles me.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,570
    edited November 2019

    - “ Even Stuart Dickson admits the SNP will not top 40% and Scottish polls always underestimate the SCon vote.”

    That’s not quite what I said, but correct gist.
    So what do you expect the SNP to get? Serious question.
    Rather quiet in my lessons this afternoon. Everyone reflecting that we were rather fortunate yesterday’s school trip to London which included walking across London Bridge wasn’t today. Grim news indeed that there are further fatalities.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited November 2019

    Corbyn is a lot of things, but I don't believe he'd be stupid enough to wade into the police so soon after the incident. People are that partisan on here that they're willing to believe anything about their political enemies. Have a word with yerselves!

    Well he didn’t come out well with the Salisbury chemical attack, or the elimination of the ISIS leader particularly well did he?
  • Daily Mail group is buying/has bought The i newspaper.
    Apols if old news.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    HYUFD said:

    And a hard Spanish government riot police style crackdown to stop it?
    You sound like a nutter, you have a dark fascination for a police state and beating up of the public. Not a nice person at all.
  • malcolmg said:

    I see the Tory surge is in full flow, frothers will be gnashing their teeth, HYFUD will be rolling out that it is less than 2015 so Tory gains by the barrow load. How SNP can keep declining upwards baffles me.
    They wont but even you Malc, must see the error by Sturgeon of tying the GE into Independence. It was a big error without which the SNP may have made a near clean sweep
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Police shot and killed someone apparently.

    Damn this really is 2017 all over again.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,342

    earlier Battersea and now also Warrington South are clearly going to surprise us on the 12th.... Is OGH offering us odds on his yellows winning either?

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1200464067204452352?s=20

    Cant be bigger than EVS surely?!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,570

    Daily Mail group is buying/has bought The i newspaper.
    Apols if old news.

    I wouldn’t have thought there was much news old or otherwise in either of them.
  • No. As I assumed you know I live in Llandudno, North Wales and vote in Aberconwy

    Having said that my eldest son and his partner lived in Uxbridge until they emigrated to New Zealand 16 years ago
    No I didn’t know that. Now I do.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,342

    Don't tell me a Lib Dem leaflet starts off with a false premise? deary me...

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    perhaps Surrey residents are more likely to sue.. A pothole has to be a certain size before any Local council will act..
    That's your Southern Tories for you , greedy grasping barstewards. Surprised they have not suggested filling them with homeless/rough sleepers.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    isam said:


    Lib dems: Lies are fine, as long as they're not on the side of a bus.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    malcolmg said:

    That's your Southern Tories for you , greedy grasping barstewards. Surprised they have not suggested filling them with homeless/rough sleepers.
    Illegitimate babies, surely?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,363
    tlg86 said:

    Illegitimate babies, surely?
    We don't discriminate (ECHR told us not to). :)
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    isam said:

    Cant be bigger than EVS surely?!
    Embarrassing Mike. Doesn't do your reputation, as a Polling expert, much good.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,570
    tlg86 said:

    Illegitimate babies, surely?
    They’ll tell you that’s a waste of good food.
  • malcolmg said:

    You sound like a nutter, you have a dark fascination for a police state and beating up of the public. Not a nice person at all.
    I came to the same conclusion some time ago. Whoever is behind that account, they are not a democrat, they are not decent and they are not fair or even-handed. There is more than a streak of the violent and the malicious.

    Admiring Franco tactics is not a good look for the Tories.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Long-Bailey's leadership audition coming up on BBC1 now.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,342
    edited November 2019

    Lib dems: Lies are fine, as long as they're not on the side of a bus.
    "You know from previous elections that a vote for anyone other than the Liberal Democrats can end up with a Labour MP"

    (apart from 2010 and 2015)

  • saddened said:

    Embarrassing Mike. Doesn't do your reputation, as a Polling expert, much good.
    And with the greatest respect, who apart from us on here and people in the bubble know who he is? That is going in the bin straight off in most households.
  • kle4 said:

    Hes beholden now because he has no majority. It is possible he would not be beholden afterwards, it depends if new mps are ERG types or loyalists. The latter mean he would not be committed. Hes rented his soul not sold it.
    In a scenario where we have a healthy majority new MPs would be loyalists for 2 related reasons.

    1: New MPs will want advancement which depends upon being loyal.
    2: Rebellions are more prone to occur in a low majority scenario where the rebellious are powerful. In a healthy majority scenario the rebellious are ignored and marginalised so why join that group?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,342
    saddened said:

    Embarrassing Mike. Doesn't do your reputation, as a Polling expert, much good.
    Bob Barr was obviously a very toxic candidate! His mere presence shifted over 20,000 Lib Dem votes away from their preferred party
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133
    edited November 2019
    Nice to hear the old time BBC election theme again, if in a bastardised form.
  • They wont but even you Malc, must see the error by Sturgeon of tying the GE into Independence. It was a big error without which the SNP may have made a near clean sweep
    Nonsense. Sturgeon has made several sub-optimal moves, but basing the campaign around independence was not one of them.

    Circa 50% of Scots support independence, but only circa 40% support the SNP. Independence is our trump card.
  • ydoethur said:

    So what do you expect the SNP to get? Serious question.
    Rather quiet in my lessons this afternoon. Everyone reflecting that we were rather fortunate yesterday’s school trip to London which included walking across London Bridge wasn’t today. Grim news indeed that there are further fatalities.
    I expect the SNP to win the clear majority of Scottish seats. For the 3rd time in a row.

    Credit where credit is due.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    They wont but even you Malc, must see the error by Sturgeon of tying the GE into Independence. It was a big error without which the SNP may have made a near clean sweep
    How? If the SNP do not tie the election to Independence then the press does it for them (see 2017 for details).
  • isam said:

    "You know from previous elections that a vote for anyone other than the Liberal Democrats can end up with a Labour MP"

    (apart from 2010 and 2015)

    I posted this here last night, I no longer live in Warrington South but did in 2015 and was very disappointed David lost in 2017 he was a very good guy. Bizarre telling Tories they have no chance in a seat they are odds on favourites for. The Lib Dems are closer to the Greens in odds, ie no chance:


    I can't think what convinced OGH to send this out to this constituency. The only thing that I can think is that OGH and the Lib Dems are trying to act as a spoiler so that Corbyn's Labour can hold the seat. Nothing else makes sense.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    edited November 2019

    I came to the same conclusion some time ago. Whoever is behind that account, they are not a democrat, they are not decent and they are not fair or even-handed. There is more than a streak of the violent and the malicious.

    Admiring Franco tactics is not a good look for the Tories.
    I am afraid HYUFD's long stated suggestion that HMG would be justified in using Spanish style police violence against Scottish Independence moves is an ongoing embarrassment to those of us who support Brexit even if we are not Tories. There really is no excuse for it.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,104
    Caroline Lucas is a brilliant speaker . An absolute star .
  • Sounds like the Nits are worried YouGov won't show them all up to be "civic" nationalists.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    I posted this here last night, I no longer live in Warrington South but did in 2015 and was very disappointed David lost in 2017 he was a very good guy. Bizarre telling Tories they have no chance in a seat they are odds on favourites for. The Lib Dems are closer to the Greens in odds, ie no chance:


    I can't think what convinced OGH to send this out to this constituency. The only thing that I can think is that OGH and the Lib Dems are trying to act as a spoiler so that Corbyn's Labour can hold the seat. Nothing else makes sense.
    They also sent them to other constituencies saying it was between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives, urging Labour voters to vote LD.
  • They also sent them to other constituencies saying it was between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives, urging Labour voters to vote LD.

    Are those other constituencies actually Con/LD marginals or are they Con/Lab marginals like this one?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IanB2 said:

    Nice to hear the old time BBC election theme again, if in a bastardised form.

    We want rick wakeman’s six wives in full flow please or the final countdown from Europe
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    nico67 said:

    Caroline Lucas is a brilliant speaker . An absolute star .

    Sarcasm is unbecoming.
  • New thread on BBC debate
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    I see that Boris is being defended by daddy today;
    "Boris Johnson's father says UK public 'couldn't spell Pinocchio'" (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/29/pinocchio-row-stanley-johnson-suggests-uk-public-is-illiterate). Presumably this is less of a problem for Stanley having fathered Pinocchio.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,817
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said:

    She is addressing Harlow Tories Churchillian dinner this evening I am attending

    That sounds great. But what is a Churchillian dinner? Is it where never has so much been eaten by so many including you?
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    Are those other constituencies actually Con/LD marginals or are they Con/Lab marginals like this one?
    I got one in Guildford, so Con/LD marginals as well.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Lib dems: Lies are fine, as long as they're not on the side of a bus.
    Winning elections with lies is fine - if you are a Lib Dem
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,200

    I posted this here last night, I no longer live in Warrington South but did in 2015 and was very disappointed David lost in 2017 he was a very good guy. Bizarre telling Tories they have no chance in a seat they are odds on favourites for. The Lib Dems are closer to the Greens in odds, ie no chance:


    I can't think what convinced OGH to send this out to this constituency. The only thing that I can think is that OGH and the Lib Dems are trying to act as a spoiler so that Corbyn's Labour can hold the seat. Nothing else makes sense.
    Warrington South 2017

    Labour 29,994
    Conservative 27,445
    Liberal Democrats 3,339

    Simply does square with...

    "The election in Warrington South is between the Labour and the Liberal Democrats."

    "You know from previous elections that a vote for anyone other than the Liberal Democrats can end up with a Labour MP."
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Chris said:

    If you're saying that someone is "reporting" that Corbyn "is criticising Boris and the City of London Firearms unit for their decisive action" then you need to quote the actual words youi're referring to.

    If you can't do that, I'll conclude you're lying.
    There were newspaper articles about a fake Corbyn tweet doing the rounds

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,817
    IanB2 said:

    Nice to hear the old time BBC election theme again, if in a bastardised form.

    I agree. It's massive. A wholly positive development. One of the few.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    edited November 2019
    Gadfly said:

    Warrington South 2017

    Labour 29,994
    Conservative 27,445
    Liberal Democrats 3,339

    Simply does square with...

    "The election in Warrington South is between the Labour and the Liberal Democrats."

    "You know from previous elections that a vote for anyone other than the Liberal Democrats can end up with a Labour MP."
    It’s simply an outright lie. Sad, but par for the course these days. Desperate stuff from the Lib Dems.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Sounds like the Nits are worried YouGov won't show them all up to be "civic" nationalists.

    CUCKOO
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    earlier Battersea and now also Warrington South are clearly going to surprise us on the 12th.... Is OGH offering us odds on his yellows winning either?

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1200464067204452352?s=20

    Mike - serious point if I might

    We all know you’re a LibDem - everyone’s got to have one fault

    And it makes perfect sense to try to leverage your brand to support them

    But I think you should be careful about having your peers and posters laughing at you - you’re damaging your brand ultimately

    Perhaps you should have oversight on the letters that are being sent out in your name?

    @MikeSmithson @rcs1000
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,817
    nico67 said:

    Caroline Lucas is a brilliant speaker . An absolute star .

    She is. That straight to camera PPB she did the other night was compelling. No other party leader could have done it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    7 people all arguing over each other and many reaching for the mute button
    Boris said he was suspending campaigning for the night. Is he still going?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Nonsense. Sturgeon has made several sub-optimal moves, but basing the campaign around independence was not one of them.

    Circa 50% of Scots support independence, but only circa 40% support the SNP. Independence is our trump card.
    Quite. The SNP goes on endlessly about independence for the same reason that Labour goes on endlessly about the NHS. It works.

    One can easily imagine that, if there's a second independence referendum, the Yes campaign falls short again and it becomes apparent that a third crack of the whip might not be coming for a long time, a situation could develop in which the voting patterns that prevailed prior to the Scottish Tory nosedive in the Nineties might begin to reassert themselves, only with the SNP playing the role previously taken by Labour. They'd still be the dominant player, with strength across most of the central belt and in Dundee and Aberdeen, but all or nearly all of the rural seats would end up back in the hands of the Tories and Lib Dems. SNP representation would thus be reduced and the country much more clearly divided geographically. This would not be a disaster but it would represent a significant setback, especially if they also lost enough rural strength in Scottish Parliament elections for the SNP-Green pro-independence majority at Holyrood to be erased.

    Unless or until this happens, uniting and encouraging turnout amongst the pro-independence vote will always be the SNP's priority. After all, their only competition on that side of the argument are the Greens who are practically irrelevant at Westminster elections, whereas the Unionists (Con, LD) and maybe-Unionists-depending-who-you-ask (Lab) are hopelessly split.
  • camel said:

    This sound fascinating. I'm headed out for an evening with Lucas Radebe and Dom Matteo, Ian Harte, Nigel Martyn and Simon Grayson. I wouldn't swap.
    She was very well received when she spoke in support of James Airey at M6 J36 last week.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Long Bailey doing well here I think, better than Swinson for sure.
  • Are those other constituencies actually Con/LD marginals or are they Con/Lab marginals like this one?
    Same as this one. Clear Lab/Con marginals with the LDs far out of touch.
  • kinabalu said:

    That sounds great. But what is a Churchillian dinner? Is it where never has so much been eaten by so many including you?
    Presumably a black tie do. In my experience of perhaps similar events you don't necessarily attend for either the quantity or choice of food, but what is offered is invariable excellent. Speaking at these do's separates out the old pro's from the young not so pro's and is I guess more difficult than a speech in parliament.

    I have heard both Jacob RM and David Willetts really struggle
  • Sounds like the Nits are worried YouGov won't show them all up to be "civic" nationalists.

    When did you stop beating your wife?
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    kinabalu said:

    That sounds great. But what is a Churchillian dinner? Is it where never has so much been eaten by so many including you?
    I believe it is the Conservative version of those old 'nuns and nazi' nights at university. Not sure which film they show.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    Same as this one. Clear Lab/Con marginals with the LDs far out of touch.

    Same as this one. Clear Lab/Con marginals with the LDs far out of touch.
    Wrong. As I said above they have arrived in Guildford which is as clear a Con/LD marginal as is possible.
  • A terrible thing to notice but the Guardian might profitably choose to change the wording of the headline and get rid of the unfortunate juxtaposition.
  • The Tories are convincing me every day further that they really have no bloody clue what to do beyond "get Brexit done"
  • The Tories are convincing me every day further that they really have no bloody clue what to do beyond "get Brexit done"

    sounds ideal
  • funkhauserfunkhauser Posts: 325
    edited November 2019

    The Tories are convincing me every day further that they really have no bloody clue what to do beyond "get Brexit done"

    You were never going to vote Tory, so who cares?
  • Andy_JS said:
    Obviously has a genuine concern for animal welfare unlike some of the fakes that come to mind.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited November 2019
    ***** SHOCK HORROR *****

    Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16.
    God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
This discussion has been closed.