Even Stuart Dickson admits the SNP will not top 40% and Scottish polls always underestimate the SCon vote. It wasn't until the early hours of the Friday morning that the 2017 SCon revival became apparent. Let's see what the early Scottish results tell us a fortnight today!
- “ Even Stuart Dickson admits the SNP will not top 40% and Scottish polls always underestimate the SCon vote.”
That’s not quite what I said, but correct gist.
I see the Tory surge is in full flow, frothers will be gnashing their teeth, HYFUD will be rolling out that it is less than 2015 so Tory gains by the barrow load. How SNP can keep declining upwards baffles me.
Even Stuart Dickson admits the SNP will not top 40% and Scottish polls always underestimate the SCon vote. It wasn't until the early hours of the Friday morning that the 2017 SCon revival became apparent. Let's see what the early Scottish results tell us a fortnight today!
- “ Even Stuart Dickson admits the SNP will not top 40% and Scottish polls always underestimate the SCon vote.”
That’s not quite what I said, but correct gist.
So what do you expect the SNP to get? Serious question. Rather quiet in my lessons this afternoon. Everyone reflecting that we were rather fortunate yesterday’s school trip to London which included walking across London Bridge wasn’t today. Grim news indeed that there are further fatalities.
Corbyn is a lot of things, but I don't believe he'd be stupid enough to wade into the police so soon after the incident. People are that partisan on here that they're willing to believe anything about their political enemies. Have a word with yerselves!
Well he didn’t come out well with the Salisbury chemical attack, or the elimination of the ISIS leader particularly well did he?
Even Stuart Dickson admits the SNP will not top 40% and Scottish polls always underestimate the SCon vote. It wasn't until the early hours of the Friday morning that the 2017 SCon revival became apparent. Let's see what the early Scottish results tell us a fortnight today!
- “ Even Stuart Dickson admits the SNP will not top 40% and Scottish polls always underestimate the SCon vote.”
That’s not quite what I said, but correct gist.
I see the Tory surge is in full flow, frothers will be gnashing their teeth, HYFUD will be rolling out that it is less than 2015 so Tory gains by the barrow load. How SNP can keep declining upwards baffles me.
They wont but even you Malc, must see the error by Sturgeon of tying the GE into Independence. It was a big error without which the SNP may have made a near clean sweep
earlier Battersea and now also Warrington South are clearly going to surprise us on the 12th.... Is OGH offering us odds on his yellows winning either?
earlier Battersea and now also Warrington South are clearly going to surprise us on the 12th.... Is OGH offering us odds on his yellows winning either?
The most worrying thing about OGH’s letters is the timing. Unless they are cleverly being sent to postal voters only, they are going out way too early. Letters like that are supposed to land in the week of polling day, as anyone with any sense at LDHQ should already know.
I live in Warrington South and liberals have zero chance here . The town voted leave , and Faisal rashid will be voted out and Andy Carter conservative will win .
Don't tell me a Lib Dem leaflet starts off with a false premise? deary me...
The fact is that all post war prime ministers that first come to power at an election are alumni of Oxford university.
Jeremy Corbyn did not go to Oxford. He will not be prime minister.
It used to be that having a constituency on the A1 was the prerequisite for GE success. Thatcher Finchley, Major Huntingdon, Blair Sedgefield
It didn't help Hague in Richmond in 2001 at all, but he was trumped by near neighbour Blair's equally strong A1 credentials.. 250/1 shot Rishi Sunak will reap all the benefits of the Great North Road as new PM in 2029. Sadly for backers of Laura Piddy Pidcock, her constituency misses the A1 by about 5 miles. So while she may well be labour leader soon, she will never be PM.
It's occurred to me that Ed Milliband's Doncaster North constituency straddles the A1. Clearly Mike's A1 theory is bollocks.
Clear proof of Tory gerrymandering.
I think it was built by the Romans. The potholes were filled in by the tories.
The former is reasonable but, as all of Surrey knows, Conservatives do not repair potholes.
really... I have to drive in Sussex and Surrey, Surrey roads are infinitely better maintained, I can assure you.
Surrey has the highest claims cost for pothole damage of any authority in the country. Try driving down the Epsom Road into Guildford. My father even read an article in Birmingham crowning the Epsom Road as the most dug up in the country (I think it was something like 350 times in 5 years - and as we all know many potholes are previous repairs/holes failing.
perhaps Surrey residents are more likely to sue.. A pothole has to be a certain size before any Local council will act..
That's your Southern Tories for you , greedy grasping barstewards. Surprised they have not suggested filling them with homeless/rough sleepers.
earlier Battersea and now also Warrington South are clearly going to surprise us on the 12th.... Is OGH offering us odds on his yellows winning either?
The most worrying thing about OGH’s letters is the timing. Unless they are cleverly being sent to postal voters only, they are going out way too early. Letters like that are supposed to land in the week of polling day, as anyone with any sense at LDHQ should already know.
I live in Warrington South and liberals have zero chance here . The town voted leave , and Faisal rashid will be voted out and Andy Carter conservative will win .
Don't tell me a Lib Dem leaflet starts off with a false premise? deary me...
Lib dems: Lies are fine, as long as they're not on the side of a bus.
The fact is that all post war prime ministers that first come to power at an election are alumni of Oxford university.
Jeremy Corbyn did not go to Oxford. He will not be prime minister.
It used to be that having a constituency on the A1 was the prerequisite for GE success. Thatcher Finchley, Major Huntingdon, Blair Sedgefield
It didn't help Hague in Richmond in 2001 at all, but he was trumped by near neighbour Blair's equally strong A1 credentials.. 250/1 shot Rishi Sunak will reap all the benefits of the Great North Road as new PM in 2029. Sadly for backers of Laura Piddy Pidcock, her constituency misses the A1 by about 5 miles. So while she may well be labour leader soon, she will never be PM.
It's occurred to me that Ed Milliband's Doncaster North constituency straddles the A1. Clearly Mike's A1 theory is bollocks.
Clear proof of Tory gerrymandering.
I think it was built by the Romans. The potholes were filled in by the tories.
The former is reasonable but, as all of Surrey knows, Conservatives do not repair potholes.
really... I have to drive in Sussex and Surrey, Surrey roads are infinitely better maintained, I can assure you.
Surrey has the highest claims cost for pothole damage of any authority in the country. Try driving down the Epsom Road into Guildford. My father even read an article in Birmingham crowning the Epsom Road as the most dug up in the country (I think it was something like 350 times in 5 years - and as we all know many potholes are previous repairs/holes failing.
perhaps Surrey residents are more likely to sue.. A pothole has to be a certain size before any Local council will act..
That's your Southern Tories for you , greedy grasping barstewards. Surprised they have not suggested filling them with homeless/rough sleepers.
The fact is that all post war prime ministers that first come to power at an election are alumni of Oxford university.
Jeremy Corbyn did not go to Oxford. He will not be prime minister.
It used to be that having a constituency on the A1 was the prerequisite for GE success. Thatcher Finchley, Major Huntingdon, Blair Sedgefield
It didn't help Hague in Richmond in 2001 at all, but he was trumped by near neighbour Blair's equally strong A1 credentials.. 250/1 shot Rishi Sunak will reap all the benefits of the Great North Road as new PM in 2029. Sadly for backers of Laura Piddy Pidcock, her constituency misses the A1 by about 5 miles. So while she may well be labour leader soon, she will never be PM.
It's occurred to me that Ed Milliband's Doncaster North constituency straddles the A1. Clearly Mike's A1 theory is bollocks.
Clear proof of Tory gerrymandering.
I think it was built by the Romans. The potholes were filled in by the tories.
The former is reasonable but, as all of Surrey knows, Conservatives do not repair potholes.
really... I have to drive in Sussex and Surrey, Surrey roads are infinitely better maintained, I can assure you.
Surrey has the highest claims cost for pothole damage of any authority in the country. Try driving down the Epsom Road into Guildford. My father even read an article in Birmingham crowning the Epsom Road as the most dug up in the country (I think it was something like 350 times in 5 years - and as we all know many potholes are previous repairs/holes failing.
perhaps Surrey residents are more likely to sue.. A pothole has to be a certain size before any Local council will act..
That's your Southern Tories for you , greedy grasping barstewards. Surprised they have not suggested filling them with homeless/rough sleepers.
earlier Battersea and now also Warrington South are clearly going to surprise us on the 12th.... Is OGH offering us odds on his yellows winning either?
The fact is that all post war prime ministers that first come to power at an election are alumni of Oxford university.
Jeremy Corbyn did not go to Oxford. He will not be prime minister.
It used to be that having a constituency on the A1 was the prerequisite for GE success. Thatcher Finchley, Major Huntingdon, Blair Sedgefield
It didn't help Hague in Richmond in 2001 at all, but he was trumped by near neighbour Blair's equally strong A1 credentials.. 250/1 shot Rishi Sunak will reap all the benefits of the Great North Road as new PM in 2029. Sadly for backers of Laura Piddy Pidcock, her constituency misses the A1 by about 5 miles. So while she may well be labour leader soon, she will never be PM.
It's occurred to me that Ed Milliband's Doncaster North constituency straddles the A1. Clearly Mike's A1 theory is bollocks.
Clear proof of Tory gerrymandering.
I think it was built by the Romans. The potholes were filled in by the tories.
The former is reasonable but, as all of Surrey knows, Conservatives do not repair potholes.
really... I have to drive in Sussex and Surrey, Surrey roads are infinitely better maintained, I can assure you.
Surrey has the highest claims cost for pothole damage of any authority in the country. Try driving down the Epsom Road into Guildford. My father even read an article in Birmingham crowning the Epsom Road as the most dug up in the country (I think it was something like 350 times in 5 years - and as we all know many potholes are previous repairs/holes failing.
perhaps Surrey residents are more likely to sue.. A pothole has to be a certain size before any Local council will act..
That's your Southern Tories for you , greedy grasping barstewards. Surprised they have not suggested filling them with homeless/rough sleepers.
And a hard Spanish government riot police style crackdown to stop it?
You sound like a nutter, you have a dark fascination for a police state and beating up of the public. Not a nice person at all.
I came to the same conclusion some time ago. Whoever is behind that account, they are not a democrat, they are not decent and they are not fair or even-handed. There is more than a streak of the violent and the malicious.
Admiring Franco tactics is not a good look for the Tories.
earlier Battersea and now also Warrington South are clearly going to surprise us on the 12th.... Is OGH offering us odds on his yellows winning either?
The most worrying thing about OGH’s letters is the timing. Unless they are cleverly being sent to postal voters only, they are going out way too early. Letters like that are supposed to land in the week of polling day, as anyone with any sense at LDHQ should already know.
I live in Warrington South and liberals have zero chance here . The town voted leave , and Faisal rashid will be voted out and Andy Carter conservative will win .
Don't tell me a Lib Dem leaflet starts off with a false premise? deary me...
Lib dems: Lies are fine, as long as they're not on the side of a bus.
"You know from previous elections that a vote for anyone other than the Liberal Democrats can end up with a Labour MP"
earlier Battersea and now also Warrington South are clearly going to surprise us on the 12th.... Is OGH offering us odds on his yellows winning either?
Embarrassing Mike. Doesn't do your reputation, as a Polling expert, much good.
And with the greatest respect, who apart from us on here and people in the bubble know who he is? That is going in the bin straight off in most households.
On topic: Anything that reduces Johnson's majority if fine by me
Surely the last thing you want is him on a small majority and beholden to the ERG
He is already beholden to the ERG. Boris Johnson does not really believe in Brexit, but he sold his soul for the title of PM. He will forever be in the pocket of the extreme right of the Tory Party ( I cannot call them Conservative), and will not be able to escape it.
Hes beholden now because he has no majority. It is possible he would not be beholden afterwards, it depends if new mps are ERG types or loyalists. The latter mean he would not be committed. Hes rented his soul not sold it.
In a scenario where we have a healthy majority new MPs would be loyalists for 2 related reasons.
1: New MPs will want advancement which depends upon being loyal. 2: Rebellions are more prone to occur in a low majority scenario where the rebellious are powerful. In a healthy majority scenario the rebellious are ignored and marginalised so why join that group?
earlier Battersea and now also Warrington South are clearly going to surprise us on the 12th.... Is OGH offering us odds on his yellows winning either?
Even Stuart Dickson admits the SNP will not top 40% and Scottish polls always underestimate the SCon vote. It wasn't until the early hours of the Friday morning that the 2017 SCon revival became apparent. Let's see what the early Scottish results tell us a fortnight today!
- “ Even Stuart Dickson admits the SNP will not top 40% and Scottish polls always underestimate the SCon vote.”
That’s not quite what I said, but correct gist.
I see the Tory surge is in full flow, frothers will be gnashing their teeth, HYFUD will be rolling out that it is less than 2015 so Tory gains by the barrow load. How SNP can keep declining upwards baffles me.
They wont but even you Malc, must see the error by Sturgeon of tying the GE into Independence. It was a big error without which the SNP may have made a near clean sweep
Nonsense. Sturgeon has made several sub-optimal moves, but basing the campaign around independence was not one of them.
Circa 50% of Scots support independence, but only circa 40% support the SNP. Independence is our trump card.
Even Stuart Dickson admits the SNP will not top 40% and Scottish polls always underestimate the SCon vote. It wasn't until the early hours of the Friday morning that the 2017 SCon revival became apparent. Let's see what the early Scottish results tell us a fortnight today!
- “ Even Stuart Dickson admits the SNP will not top 40% and Scottish polls always underestimate the SCon vote.”
That’s not quite what I said, but correct gist.
So what do you expect the SNP to get? Serious question. Rather quiet in my lessons this afternoon. Everyone reflecting that we were rather fortunate yesterday’s school trip to London which included walking across London Bridge wasn’t today. Grim news indeed that there are further fatalities.
I expect the SNP to win the clear majority of Scottish seats. For the 3rd time in a row.
Even Stuart Dickson admits the SNP will not top 40% and Scottish polls always underestimate the SCon vote. It wasn't until the early hours of the Friday morning that the 2017 SCon revival became apparent. Let's see what the early Scottish results tell us a fortnight today!
- “ Even Stuart Dickson admits the SNP will not top 40% and Scottish polls always underestimate the SCon vote.”
That’s not quite what I said, but correct gist.
I see the Tory surge is in full flow, frothers will be gnashing their teeth, HYFUD will be rolling out that it is less than 2015 so Tory gains by the barrow load. How SNP can keep declining upwards baffles me.
They wont but even you Malc, must see the error by Sturgeon of tying the GE into Independence. It was a big error without which the SNP may have made a near clean sweep
How? If the SNP do not tie the election to Independence then the press does it for them (see 2017 for details).
earlier Battersea and now also Warrington South are clearly going to surprise us on the 12th.... Is OGH offering us odds on his yellows winning either?
The most worrying thing about OGH’s letters is the timing. Unless they are cleverly being sent to postal voters only, they are going out way too early. Letters like that are supposed to land in the week of polling day, as anyone with any sense at LDHQ should already know.
I live in Warrington South and liberals have zero chance here . The town voted leave , and Faisal rashid will be voted out and Andy Carter conservative will win .
Don't tell me a Lib Dem leaflet starts off with a false premise? deary me...
Lib dems: Lies are fine, as long as they're not on the side of a bus.
"You know from previous elections that a vote for anyone other than the Liberal Democrats can end up with a Labour MP"
(apart from 2010 and 2015)
I posted this here last night, I no longer live in Warrington South but did in 2015 and was very disappointed David lost in 2017 he was a very good guy. Bizarre telling Tories they have no chance in a seat they are odds on favourites for. The Lib Dems are closer to the Greens in odds, ie no chance:
I can't think what convinced OGH to send this out to this constituency. The only thing that I can think is that OGH and the Lib Dems are trying to act as a spoiler so that Corbyn's Labour can hold the seat. Nothing else makes sense.
And a hard Spanish government riot police style crackdown to stop it?
You sound like a nutter, you have a dark fascination for a police state and beating up of the public. Not a nice person at all.
I came to the same conclusion some time ago. Whoever is behind that account, they are not a democrat, they are not decent and they are not fair or even-handed. There is more than a streak of the violent and the malicious.
Admiring Franco tactics is not a good look for the Tories.
I am afraid HYUFD's long stated suggestion that HMG would be justified in using Spanish style police violence against Scottish Independence moves is an ongoing embarrassment to those of us who support Brexit even if we are not Tories. There really is no excuse for it.
earlier Battersea and now also Warrington South are clearly going to surprise us on the 12th.... Is OGH offering us odds on his yellows winning either?
The most worrying thing about OGH’s letters is the timing. Unless they are cleverly being sent to postal voters only, they are going out way too early. Letters like that are supposed to land in the week of polling day, as anyone with any sense at LDHQ should already know.
I live in Warrington South and liberals have zero chance here . The town voted leave , and Faisal rashid will be voted out and Andy Carter conservative will win .
Don't tell me a Lib Dem leaflet starts off with a false premise? deary me...
Lib dems: Lies are fine, as long as they're not on the side of a bus.
"You know from previous elections that a vote for anyone other than the Liberal Democrats can end up with a Labour MP"
(apart from 2010 and 2015)
I posted this here last night, I no longer live in Warrington South but did in 2015 and was very disappointed David lost in 2017 he was a very good guy. Bizarre telling Tories they have no chance in a seat they are odds on favourites for. The Lib Dems are closer to the Greens in odds, ie no chance:
I can't think what convinced OGH to send this out to this constituency. The only thing that I can think is that OGH and the Lib Dems are trying to act as a spoiler so that Corbyn's Labour can hold the seat. Nothing else makes sense.
They also sent them to other constituencies saying it was between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives, urging Labour voters to vote LD.
earlier Battersea and now also Warrington South are clearly going to surprise us on the 12th.... Is OGH offering us odds on his yellows winning either?
The most worrying thing about OGH’s letters is the timing. Unless they are cleverly being sent to postal voters only, they are going out way too early. Letters like that are supposed to land in the week of polling day, as anyone with any sense at LDHQ should already know.
I live in Warrington South and liberals have zero chance here . The town voted leave , and Faisal rashid will be voted out and Andy Carter conservative will win .
Don't tell me a Lib Dem leaflet starts off with a false premise? deary me...
Lib dems: Lies are fine, as long as they're not on the side of a bus.
Winning elections with lies is fine - if you are a Lib Dem
earlier Battersea and now also Warrington South are clearly going to surprise us on the 12th.... Is OGH offering us odds on his yellows winning either?
The most worrying thing about OGH’s letters is the timing. Unless they are cleverly being sent to postal voters only, they are going out way too early. Letters like that are supposed to land in the week of polling day, as anyone with any sense at LDHQ should already know.
I live in Warrington South and liberals have zero chance here . The town voted leave , and Faisal rashid will be voted out and Andy Carter conservative will win .
Don't tell me a Lib Dem leaflet starts off with a false premise? deary me...
Lib dems: Lies are fine, as long as they're not on the side of a bus.
"You know from previous elections that a vote for anyone other than the Liberal Democrats can end up with a Labour MP"
(apart from 2010 and 2015)
I posted this here last night, I no longer live in Warrington South but did in 2015 and was very disappointed David lost in 2017 he was a very good guy. Bizarre telling Tories they have no chance in a seat they are odds on favourites for. The Lib Dems are closer to the Greens in odds, ie no chance:
I can't think what convinced OGH to send this out to this constituency. The only thing that I can think is that OGH and the Lib Dems are trying to act as a spoiler so that Corbyn's Labour can hold the seat. Nothing else makes sense.
Warrington South 2017
Labour 29,994 Conservative 27,445 Liberal Democrats 3,339
Simply does square with...
"The election in Warrington South is between the Labour and the Liberal Democrats."
"You know from previous elections that a vote for anyone other than the Liberal Democrats can end up with a Labour MP."
... if as is being reported on here Corbyn is criticising Boris and the City of London Firearms unit for their decisive action he is no better than the terrorists.
Can you quote what you're referring to?
If you look down thread Casino has suggested that Corbyn is equivocal over the police fatally shooting the perpetrator. This being the case, perhaps Corbyn might have second thoughts when confronted by a guy who appears to be wearing an explosives vest.
If you're saying that someone is "reporting" that Corbyn "is criticising Boris and the City of London Firearms unit for their decisive action" then you need to quote the actual words youi're referring to.
If you can't do that, I'll conclude you're lying.
There were newspaper articles about a fake Corbyn tweet doing the rounds
earlier Battersea and now also Warrington South are clearly going to surprise us on the 12th.... Is OGH offering us odds on his yellows winning either?
The most worrying thing about OGH’s letters is the timing. Unless they are cleverly being sent to postal voters only, they are going out way too early. Letters like that are supposed to land in the week of polling day, as anyone with any sense at LDHQ should already know.
I live in Warrington South and liberals have zero chance here . The town voted leave , and Faisal rashid will be voted out and Andy Carter conservative will win .
Don't tell me a Lib Dem leaflet starts off with a false premise? deary me...
Lib dems: Lies are fine, as long as they're not on the side of a bus.
"You know from previous elections that a vote for anyone other than the Liberal Democrats can end up with a Labour MP"
(apart from 2010 and 2015)
I posted this here last night, I no longer live in Warrington South but did in 2015 and was very disappointed David lost in 2017 he was a very good guy. Bizarre telling Tories they have no chance in a seat they are odds on favourites for. The Lib Dems are closer to the Greens in odds, ie no chance:
I can't think what convinced OGH to send this out to this constituency. The only thing that I can think is that OGH and the Lib Dems are trying to act as a spoiler so that Corbyn's Labour can hold the seat. Nothing else makes sense.
Warrington South 2017
Labour 29,994 Conservative 27,445 Liberal Democrats 3,339
Simply does square with...
"The election in Warrington South is between the Labour and the Liberal Democrats."
"You know from previous elections that a vote for anyone other than the Liberal Democrats can end up with a Labour MP."
It’s simply an outright lie. Sad, but par for the course these days. Desperate stuff from the Lib Dems.
earlier Battersea and now also Warrington South are clearly going to surprise us on the 12th.... Is OGH offering us odds on his yellows winning either?
Even Stuart Dickson admits the SNP will not top 40% and Scottish polls always underestimate the SCon vote. It wasn't until the early hours of the Friday morning that the 2017 SCon revival became apparent. Let's see what the early Scottish results tell us a fortnight today!
- “ Even Stuart Dickson admits the SNP will not top 40% and Scottish polls always underestimate the SCon vote.”
That’s not quite what I said, but correct gist.
I see the Tory surge is in full flow, frothers will be gnashing their teeth, HYFUD will be rolling out that it is less than 2015 so Tory gains by the barrow load. How SNP can keep declining upwards baffles me.
They wont but even you Malc, must see the error by Sturgeon of tying the GE into Independence. It was a big error without which the SNP may have made a near clean sweep
Nonsense. Sturgeon has made several sub-optimal moves, but basing the campaign around independence was not one of them.
Circa 50% of Scots support independence, but only circa 40% support the SNP. Independence is our trump card.
Quite. The SNP goes on endlessly about independence for the same reason that Labour goes on endlessly about the NHS. It works.
One can easily imagine that, if there's a second independence referendum, the Yes campaign falls short again and it becomes apparent that a third crack of the whip might not be coming for a long time, a situation could develop in which the voting patterns that prevailed prior to the Scottish Tory nosedive in the Nineties might begin to reassert themselves, only with the SNP playing the role previously taken by Labour. They'd still be the dominant player, with strength across most of the central belt and in Dundee and Aberdeen, but all or nearly all of the rural seats would end up back in the hands of the Tories and Lib Dems. SNP representation would thus be reduced and the country much more clearly divided geographically. This would not be a disaster but it would represent a significant setback, especially if they also lost enough rural strength in Scottish Parliament elections for the SNP-Green pro-independence majority at Holyrood to be erased.
Unless or until this happens, uniting and encouraging turnout amongst the pro-independence vote will always be the SNP's priority. After all, their only competition on that side of the argument are the Greens who are practically irrelevant at Westminster elections, whereas the Unionists (Con, LD) and maybe-Unionists-depending-who-you-ask (Lab) are hopelessly split.
I thought we were supposed to be seeing lots of Priti Patel in the TV debates and studios during this election. Either that has not transpired for some reason (too busy defending her Essex marginal?) or I have just happened to have missed her each time.
She is addressing Harlow Tories Churchillian dinner this evening I am attending
This sound fascinating. I'm headed out for an evening with Lucas Radebe and Dom Matteo, Ian Harte, Nigel Martyn and Simon Grayson. I wouldn't swap.
She was very well received when she spoke in support of James Airey at M6 J36 last week.
She is addressing Harlow Tories Churchillian dinner this evening I am attending
That sounds great. But what is a Churchillian dinner? Is it where never has so much been eaten by so many including you?
Presumably a black tie do. In my experience of perhaps similar events you don't necessarily attend for either the quantity or choice of food, but what is offered is invariable excellent. Speaking at these do's separates out the old pro's from the young not so pro's and is I guess more difficult than a speech in parliament.
I have heard both Jacob RM and David Willetts really struggle
A terrible thing to notice but the Guardian might profitably choose to change the wording of the headline and get rid of the unfortunate juxtaposition.
Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
Comments
Rather quiet in my lessons this afternoon. Everyone reflecting that we were rather fortunate yesterday’s school trip to London which included walking across London Bridge wasn’t today. Grim news indeed that there are further fatalities.
Apols if old news.
Admiring Franco tactics is not a good look for the Tories.
(apart from 2010 and 2015)
1: New MPs will want advancement which depends upon being loyal.
2: Rebellions are more prone to occur in a low majority scenario where the rebellious are powerful. In a healthy majority scenario the rebellious are ignored and marginalised so why join that group?
Circa 50% of Scots support independence, but only circa 40% support the SNP. Independence is our trump card.
Credit where credit is due.
I can't think what convinced OGH to send this out to this constituency. The only thing that I can think is that OGH and the Lib Dems are trying to act as a spoiler so that Corbyn's Labour can hold the seat. Nothing else makes sense.
"Boris Johnson's father says UK public 'couldn't spell Pinocchio'" (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/29/pinocchio-row-stanley-johnson-suggests-uk-public-is-illiterate). Presumably this is less of a problem for Stanley having fathered Pinocchio.
Labour 29,994
Conservative 27,445
Liberal Democrats 3,339
Simply does square with...
"The election in Warrington South is between the Labour and the Liberal Democrats."
"You know from previous elections that a vote for anyone other than the Liberal Democrats can end up with a Labour MP."
We all know you’re a LibDem - everyone’s got to have one fault
And it makes perfect sense to try to leverage your brand to support them
But I think you should be careful about having your peers and posters laughing at you - you’re damaging your brand ultimately
Perhaps you should have oversight on the letters that are being sent out in your name?
@MikeSmithson @rcs1000
One can easily imagine that, if there's a second independence referendum, the Yes campaign falls short again and it becomes apparent that a third crack of the whip might not be coming for a long time, a situation could develop in which the voting patterns that prevailed prior to the Scottish Tory nosedive in the Nineties might begin to reassert themselves, only with the SNP playing the role previously taken by Labour. They'd still be the dominant player, with strength across most of the central belt and in Dundee and Aberdeen, but all or nearly all of the rural seats would end up back in the hands of the Tories and Lib Dems. SNP representation would thus be reduced and the country much more clearly divided geographically. This would not be a disaster but it would represent a significant setback, especially if they also lost enough rural strength in Scottish Parliament elections for the SNP-Green pro-independence majority at Holyrood to be erased.
Unless or until this happens, uniting and encouraging turnout amongst the pro-independence vote will always be the SNP's priority. After all, their only competition on that side of the argument are the Greens who are practically irrelevant at Westminster elections, whereas the Unionists (Con, LD) and maybe-Unionists-depending-who-you-ask (Lab) are hopelessly split.
I have heard both Jacob RM and David Willetts really struggle
Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16.
God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!