Fucking hell imagine trying to get political capital out of this - shameful
No, what is shameful is being the sort of scum that commemorates Jew-killing terrorists, calls them his friends and invites them to parliament. Or being the sort of voter that looks the other way over such reprehensible views from the politician they are voting for.
In non-Terrorism news I am still working through analysing where the YouGov 2017 was really accurate. And I think I've already found the winner
Tiverton and Honiton: YouGov Prediction Con: 61.8 Lab: 26.5 LD: 8.7 Result Con : 61.4 Lab: 27.1 LD: 8.02 And this shows the problem for the LD this time around, the 2019 YouGov has Tiverton as Con: 57 Lab: 19 LD: 16 Doubling their vote share and doing them absolutely hee haw good overall.
Fucking hell imagine trying to get political capital out of this - shameful
No, what is shameful is being the sort of scum that commemorates Jew-killing terrorists, calls them his friends and invites them to parliament. Or being the sort of voter that looks the other way over such reprehensible views from the politician they are voting for.
This is what I was talking about, Christ.
I am stopping commenting on this as I don't want to feed this troll anymore.
In non-Terrorism news I am still working through analysing where the YouGov 2017 was really accurate. And I think I've already found the winner
Tiverton and Honiton: YouGov Prediction Con: 61.8 Lab: 26.5 LD: 8.7 Result Con : 61.4 Lab: 27.1 LD: 8.02 And this shows the problem for the LD this time around, the 2019 YouGov has Tiverton as Con: 57 Lab: 19 LD: 16 Doubling their vote share and doing them absolutely hee haw good overall.
I'd be interested to know which seats they got wrong in 2017. I know that NE Derbyshire was one of them.
In non-Terrorism news I am still working through analysing where the YouGov 2017 was really accurate. And I think I've already found the winner
Tiverton and Honiton: YouGov Prediction Con: 61.8 Lab: 26.5 LD: 8.7 Result Con : 61.4 Lab: 27.1 LD: 8.02 And this shows the problem for the LD this time around, the 2019 YouGov has Tiverton as Con: 57 Lab: 19 LD: 16 Doubling their vote share and doing them absolutely hee haw good overall.
Fucking hell imagine trying to get political capital out of this - shameful
No, what is shameful is being the sort of scum that commemorates Jew-killing terrorists, calls them his friends and invites them to parliament. Or being the sort of voter that looks the other way over such reprehensible views from the politician they are voting for.
This is what I was talking about, Christ.
I am stopping commenting on this as I don't want to feed this troll anymore.
I know many have tried desperately to keep Corbyn's support for terrorists as a quirk to be kept out of political debate. I know Corbynistas don't care about the victims of Hamas and Hezbollah as they are only Jews. But it is right and just that people be reminded of the effect on people of the groups he has declared his friends. You can try all you like to silence us but us Jews will not "put a sock in it" as another Labour supported demanded the other day.
Even Stuart Dickson admits the SNP will not top 40% and Scottish polls always underestimate the SCon vote. It wasn't until the early hours of the Friday morning that the 2017 SCon revival became apparent. Let's see what the early Scottish results tell us a fortnight today!
Fucking hell imagine trying to get political capital out of this - shameful
Just grow up will you. Lots of people are terrorised and at least one person is dead
Show some respect
Surely the guy trying to score party political points out of it is the one who needs to show some respect not those calling him out.
I voted Labour every election in my adult life until the current leader. My criticism is specifically about Corbyn and McDonnell. I know you see a terrorist attack as something tragic that happens every four or five years. A solemn occasion where political debate should stop and we all join hands and sing kumbyah together. But us Jews don't get to do that. We are reminded of the constant threat of it every time our family and friends in Israel get caught up in the latest attack. Every time we walk through the towering security perimeter when we pick up kids from a Jewish school. Every time we go past the armed security to enter temple. So the constant threat is a live continuous issue for us, as is the moral and political support given on numerous occasions by Jeremy Corbyn. I would have loved for this understanding to be heard by non-Jews as we have pleaded with others over the last few years, but we have been met with shrugs and zero empathy. So I will not apologize for pointing this out on the rare occasion when the rest of the population might have a brief window into our experience.
Fucking hell imagine trying to get political capital out of this - shameful
Just grow up will you. Lots of people are terrorised and at least one person is dead
Show some respect
Surely the guy trying to score party political points out of it is the one who needs to show some respect not those calling him out.
I voted Labour every election in my adult life until the current leader. My criticism is specifically about Corbyn and McDonnell. I know you see a terrorist attack as something tragic that happens every four or five years. A solemn occasion where political debate should stop and we all join hands and sing kumbyah together. But us Jews don't get to do that. We are reminded of the constant threat of it every time our family and friends in Israel get caught up in the latest attack. Every time we walk through the towering security perimeter when we pick up kids from a Jewish school. Every time we go past the armed security to enter temple. So the constant threat is a live continuous issue for us, as is the moral and political support given on numerous occasions by Jeremy Corbyn. I would have loved for this understanding to be heard by non-Jews as we have pleaded with others over the last few years, but we have been met with shrugs and zero empathy. So I will not apologize for pointing this out on the rare occasion when the rest of the population might have a brief window into our experience.
Please shut up and go away. We have next to no information about this incident as yet, people have been hurt and worse. Take your cheap point scoring somewhere else.
That's the tribalism of the Labour vote in action. Just because tribal labour voters keep saying 'don't know' when they get closer to the ballot box they will end up deciding to vote for Labour anyway.
The drone vote is incredibly sticky for Labour.
As it is for the Conservatives. I suppose they see Boris behaving like a Regency rake and think of the good old days.
In non-Terrorism news I am still working through analysing where the YouGov 2017 was really accurate. And I think I've already found the winner
Tiverton and Honiton: YouGov Prediction Con: 61.8 Lab: 26.5 LD: 8.7 Result Con : 61.4 Lab: 27.1 LD: 8.02 And this shows the problem for the LD this time around, the 2019 YouGov has Tiverton as Con: 57 Lab: 19 LD: 16 Doubling their vote share and doing them absolutely hee haw good overall.
I'd be interested to know which seats they got wrong in 2017. I know that NE Derbyshire was one of them.
The most wrong was Hackney South and Shoreditch where they thought "someone else" was going to get over 19%. Labour hoovered that vote there.
You've got more of a chance of being killed by a falling coconut than a terrorist incident
Which rather brings to mind Spinal Tap and the death from a 'bizarre gardening accident' - which seemed suitably far fetched until Keith Richard nearly killed himself falling out of a tree.
That should be a link to every constituency ranked by Root Mean Square Error comparing the YouGov prediction for Con/Lab/LD/SNP vs actual result. I haven't done Plaid as I made a msitake copying data around and it would be a right arse to fix that. Also I didn't chuck in the UKIP data because too noisy. I think the real takeaway for me from looking at this is YouGov did and astounding job of predicting how the 2015 UKIP vote would break. Just incredible.
In non-Terrorism news I am still working through analysing where the YouGov 2017 was really accurate. And I think I've already found the winner
Tiverton and Honiton: YouGov Prediction Con: 61.8 Lab: 26.5 LD: 8.7 Result Con : 61.4 Lab: 27.1 LD: 8.02 And this shows the problem for the LD this time around, the 2019 YouGov has Tiverton as Con: 57 Lab: 19 LD: 16 Doubling their vote share and doing them absolutely hee haw good overall.
Fucking hell imagine trying to get political capital out of this - shameful
Just grow up will you. Lots of people are terrorised and at least one person is dead
Show some respect
Surely the guy trying to score party political points out of it is the one who needs to show some respect not those calling him out.
I voted Labour every election in my adult life until the current leader. My criticism is specifically about Corbyn and McDonnell. I know you see a terrorist attack as something tragic that happens every four or five years. A solemn occasion where political debate should stop and we all join hands and sing kumbyah together. But us Jews don't get to do that. We are reminded of the constant threat of it every time our family and friends in Israel get caught up in the latest attack. Every time we walk through the towering security perimeter when we pick up kids from a Jewish school. Every time we go past the armed security to enter temple. So the constant threat is a live continuous issue for us, as is the moral and political support given on numerous occasions by Jeremy Corbyn. I would have loved for this understanding to be heard by non-Jews as we have pleaded with others over the last few years, but we have been met with shrugs and zero empathy. So I will not apologize for pointing this out on the rare occasion when the rest of the population might have a brief window into our experience.
Please shut up and go away. We have next to no information about this incident as yet, people have been hurt and worse. Take your cheap point scoring somewhere else.
Yes, just as Jews have been killed regularly by Hamas and Hezbollah. But yours is the typical stonewall Jewish concerns have been met with by Labour.
In non-Terrorism news I am still working through analysing where the YouGov 2017 was really accurate. And I think I've already found the winner
Tiverton and Honiton: YouGov Prediction Con: 61.8 Lab: 26.5 LD: 8.7 Result Con : 61.4 Lab: 27.1 LD: 8.02 And this shows the problem for the LD this time around, the 2019 YouGov has Tiverton as Con: 57 Lab: 19 LD: 16 Doubling their vote share and doing them absolutely hee haw good overall.
Have you had a look at Hazel Grove ?
Got the full sheet now, fucking psychic by YouGov.
12 of those were massive LAB under predictions, 5 massive Con under predictions and the rest modest mistakes both ways.
Is there a factor I’m missing that might link those places? Something odd in the demographics? It seems quite a wide range of places but you’d think there’d be linked sources of error.
As well as the brave civilians who put their lives in danger, we should thank the Police and especially the armed police officer who made a decision no officer would ever wish to make to keep us safe.
I hope he/she is given all the support needed concerning their split-second decision.
That should be a link to every constituency ranked by Root Mean Square Error comparing the YouGov prediction for Con/Lab/LD/SNP vs actual result. I haven't done Plaid as I made a msitake copying data around and it would be a right arse to fix that. Also I didn't chuck in the UKIP data because too noisy. I think the real takeaway for me from looking at this is YouGov did and astounding job of predicting how the 2015 UKIP vote would break. Just incredible.
Brilliant, thanks. From a quick eyeball at the RMS errors, it look as though the vast majority of the projections were considerably more accurate than individual constituency polls typically are.
Is there a factor I’m missing that might link those places? Something odd in the demographics? It seems quite a wide range of places but you’d think there’d be linked sources of error.
Off of 632 predictions they were always going to get a bunch wrong. I think you'd want to look at the top 100 to see if there was any actual trends
12 of those were massive LAB under predictions, 5 massive Con under predictions and the rest modest mistakes both ways.
Is there a factor I’m missing that might link those places? Something odd in the demographics? It seems quite a wide range of places but you’d think there’d be linked sources of error.
A lot of the Labour errors appear to be underestimating their support in areas with high ethnic minority populations. My guess is that the model channelled a proportion of census CD folks toward the Tories for cultural/Brexit reasons that don’t play out as strongly in non-white populations.
You've got more of a chance of being killed by a falling coconut than a terrorist incident
I need to see the stats on that.
I'd say it's out by a factor of 100 or more, at least for Brits.
Until today, have there been any terrorist attacks in the UK since 2017?
Not that I'm aware of. Let's call it a round 100 deaths since 2000. My Google skills may be weak, but can't find a British coconut death in that period.
Sky just appear to have claimed 1 other death as well as the assailant
Ghoulish, and Brake is a twat
Absolutely disgraceful. Conservatives trying to tie a tweet which has nothing to do with the attack and was almost certainly ok'd and in the pipeline long before news broke. Are there any depths the supporters of the Conservatives will not sink to?
That should be a link to every constituency ranked by Root Mean Square Error comparing the YouGov prediction for Con/Lab/LD/SNP vs actual result. I haven't done Plaid as I made a msitake copying data around and it would be a right arse to fix that. Also I didn't chuck in the UKIP data because too noisy. I think the real takeaway for me from looking at this is YouGov did and astounding job of predicting how the 2015 UKIP vote would break. Just incredible.
Brilliant, thanks. From a quick eyeball at the RMS errors, it look as though the vast majority of the projections were considerably more accurate than individual constituency polls typically are.
Yes, the Histrogram of RMS distribution puts the central peak between 2.3-2.76 which is just stunning to me.
So the exercise left to the reader if take the most accurate predictions from 2017, Find 2019 MRP predictions with odds against winners in those most accurate constituencies and then Private Message me the tips.
The people who risked their lives to bring this guy down are incredibly brave. They could have been killed by the terrorist - just before Christmas. The consequences to them and their family don't bear thinking about. You can only imagine they didn't make that calculation - just dived in to help their fellow Londoners in mortal danger.
In non-Terrorism news I am still working through analysing where the YouGov 2017 was really accurate. And I think I've already found the winner
Tiverton and Honiton: YouGov Prediction Con: 61.8 Lab: 26.5 LD: 8.7 Result Con : 61.4 Lab: 27.1 LD: 8.02 And this shows the problem for the LD this time around, the 2019 YouGov has Tiverton as Con: 57 Lab: 19 LD: 16 Doubling their vote share and doing them absolutely hee haw good overall.
That's going to be true in 99% of seats.
The LDs had a very lucky 2017, in that they increased their seat count 50% despite dropping share. (The same happened, of course, in 1997, when their vote share fell back, yet they more than doubled their seats.)
This time it looks like it'll be the other way around. They'll save a lot more deposits and get a lot more votes (I wouldn't be surprised if they doubled their vote in absolute tems), but they may* end up going backwards in terms of number of seats.
* I maybe completely wrong, but I think 18-24 is the right seat range for the LDs.
You've got more of a chance of being killed by a falling coconut than a terrorist incident
I need to see the stats on that.
I'd say it's out by a factor of 100 or more, at least for Brits.
Until today, have there been any terrorist attacks in the UK since 2017?
Not that I'm aware of. Let's call it a round 100 deaths since 2000. My Google skills may be weak, but can't find a British coconut death in that period.
There seems to be a figure of 150 per year globally [discredited for being too high, but it's all I have]. If true then then suggests 1 or 2 of those would be British if all people equally exposed, which isn't the case. Assuming the average Brit spends 1 week a year near coconut trees on holiday, that would result in 1 death every 30 years, give or take a bit.
Fucking hell imagine trying to get political capital out of this - shameful
No, what is shameful is being the sort of scum that commemorates Jew-killing terrorists, calls them his friends and invites them to parliament. Or being the sort of voter that looks the other way over such reprehensible views from the politician they are voting for.
Fucking hell imagine trying to get political capital out of this - shameful
No, what is shameful is being the sort of scum that commemorates Jew-killing terrorists, calls them his friends and invites them to parliament. Or being the sort of voter that looks the other way over such reprehensible views from the politician they are voting for.
Yes it's outrageous how a person wishing to be prime minister could share a platform with, and describe anti-Semitic, jew-hating, murderers, and terrorists his friends. Of course, you're referring to Boris Johnson (and Theresa May for that matter) standing with Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (and the Saudis) calling him his friend... right?
(Whilst on the subject of Conservative friends with terrorists and murders, let's not forget Thatcher and her actual personal friendship with a mass murdering tyrant, Pinochet)
Broadly, the BME vote is more Labour than estimated.
Once the Lib Dems are out of a natural Tory area (Solihull, possibly Norfolk North, maybe Westmoreland in the future) they ain't coming back for a long time.
And the fact that Liverpool is far more Labour than it should be purely on demographics (Almost a religion there)
In non-Terrorism news I am still working through analysing where the YouGov 2017 was really accurate. And I think I've already found the winner
Tiverton and Honiton: YouGov Prediction Con: 61.8 Lab: 26.5 LD: 8.7 Result Con : 61.4 Lab: 27.1 LD: 8.02 And this shows the problem for the LD this time around, the 2019 YouGov has Tiverton as Con: 57 Lab: 19 LD: 16 Doubling their vote share and doing them absolutely hee haw good overall.
That's going to be true in 99% of seats.
The LDs had a very lucky 2017, in that they increased their seat count 50% despite dropping share. (The same happened, of course, in 1997, when their vote share fell back, yet they more than doubled their seats.)
This time it looks like it'll be the other way around. They'll save a lot more deposits and get a lot more votes (I wouldn't be surprised if they doubled their vote in absolute tems), but they may* end up going backwards in terms of number of seats.
* I maybe completely wrong, but I think 18-24 is the right seat range for the LDs.
The people who risked their lives to bring this guy down are incredibly brave. They could have been killed by the terrorist - just before Christmas. The consequences to them and their family don't bear thinking about. You can only imagine they didn't make that calculation - just dived in to help their fellow Londoners in mortal danger.
I have been monitoring the Betfair and Spreadex prices a few times a day over the last couple of weeks and they are starting to feel a little out of sync both with each other and the polling.
BF's Con Maj and Con 340+ feel too short.
The Spreadex Con Seat spread mid-price has dropped a few seats recently but still looks a little high.
Does anyone else who follows these markets feel the Tory prospects are being slightly over-done (by both the exchanges and spreads) compared to how the polling trends are looking?
Broadly, the BME vote is more Labour than estimated.
Once the Lib Dems are out of a natural Tory area (Solihull, possibly Norfolk North, maybe Westmoreland in the future) they ain't coming back for a long time.
And the fact that Liverpool is far more Labour than it should be purely on demographics (Almost a religion there)
Simplistic. The LDs were turfed out of Twickenham, Kingston, Eastbourne and Oxford West & Abingdon - and regained all of them.
Broadly, the BME vote is more Labour than estimated.
Once the Lib Dems are out of a natural Tory area (Solihull, possibly Norfolk North, maybe Westmoreland in the future) they ain't coming back for a long time.
And the fact that Liverpool is far more Labour than it should be purely on demographics (Almost a religion there)
I wouldn't write North Norfolk off for the Lib Dem. yes they have lost Normal Lamb but they still control the local council and took a lot of seats of the Tories in May
You've got more of a chance of being killed by a falling coconut than a terrorist incident
I need to see the stats on that.
I'd say it's out by a factor of 100 or more, at least for Brits.
Until today, have there been any terrorist attacks in the UK since 2017?
Manchester Victoria stabbings last New Years Eve.
You're right, and that needs to be added to the Wikipedia page.
Culprit was diagnosed with paranoid schizophrenia & believed the government was trying to control his body with high frequency radio waves. Hence (rightly) not classified as a terrorist attack: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-50571279 Arguably inspired by extremist messaging though.
One key moment I will be watching out for is if there is a recount announced in an SNP seat. I remember the fact that Perth went to an early recount, from memory the first of 3, that gave a clear steer to how the night would go. The early results are usually the former Labour fiefdoms in Fife and Lanarkshire and if the early Glasgow results show bigger SNP majorities then SLAB is doomed. The first Tory seat in Grampian will give a clear steer as to how they will all go. From memory in 2017 it was Angus and I remember thinking if Kirstene has taken Angus then Alex Salmind and the others will all fall too.
Comments
Tiverton and Honiton:
YouGov Prediction
Con: 61.8 Lab: 26.5 LD: 8.7
Result
Con : 61.4 Lab: 27.1 LD: 8.02
And this shows the problem for the LD this time around, the 2019 YouGov has Tiverton as
Con: 57 Lab: 19 LD: 16
Doubling their vote share and doing them absolutely hee haw good overall.
I am stopping commenting on this as I don't want to feed this troll anymore.
https://twitter.com/maximilian_bond/status/1200437515863371777
Don't really want to talk about this further, feels very morbid. My sincere apologies for bringing it up in the first place.
I know you see a terrorist attack as something tragic that happens every four or five years. A solemn occasion where political debate should stop and we all join hands and sing kumbyah together. But us Jews don't get to do that. We are reminded of the constant threat of it every time our family and friends in Israel get caught up in the latest attack. Every time we walk through the towering security perimeter when we pick up kids from a Jewish school. Every time we go past the armed security to enter temple.
So the constant threat is a live continuous issue for us, as is the moral and political support given on numerous occasions by Jeremy Corbyn. I would have loved for this understanding to be heard by non-Jews as we have pleaded with others over the last few years, but we have been met with shrugs and zero empathy. So I will not apologize for pointing this out on the rare occasion when the rest of the population might have a brief window into our experience.
https://order-order.com/2019/11/29/corbyns-conspiracists-provide-london-bridge-commentary/
https://order-order.com/2019/11/29/tom-brake-boasts-boroughs-safety-london-bridge-incident-fallout/
Sky just appear to have claimed 1 other death as well as the assailant
Stay strong mate
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18rrY4Yj07ne1QlhFYI0JuEl82dEXn5K4EdChKc8MRMo/edit?usp=sharing
That should be a link to every constituency ranked by Root Mean Square Error comparing the YouGov prediction for Con/Lab/LD/SNP vs actual result. I haven't done Plaid as I made a msitake copying data around and it would be a right arse to fix that. Also I didn't chuck in the UKIP data because too noisy.
I think the real takeaway for me from looking at this is YouGov did and astounding job of predicting how the 2015 UKIP vote would break. Just incredible.
- Bradford East
- Thornbury and Yate
- Harwich and North Essex
- Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
- Harrow West
- Luton South
- Liverpool, Walton
- Manchester, Gorton
- Knowsley
- Edinburgh South
- Clacton
- Solihull
- Maidstone and The Weald
- East Devon
- The Cotswolds
- Cynon Valley
- Ilford South
- Bootle
- Hackney South and Shoreditch
- Lewisham East
12 of those were massive LAB under predictions, 5 massive Con under predictions and the rest modest mistakes both ways.Oh well
I hope he/she is given all the support needed concerning their split-second decision.
From a quick eyeball at the RMS errors, it look as though the vast majority of the projections were considerably more accurate than individual constituency polls typically are.
Thanks.
Ultimate respect.
The LDs had a very lucky 2017, in that they increased their seat count 50% despite dropping share. (The same happened, of course, in 1997, when their vote share fell back, yet they more than doubled their seats.)
This time it looks like it'll be the other way around. They'll save a lot more deposits and get a lot more votes (I wouldn't be surprised if they doubled their vote in absolute tems), but they may* end up going backwards in terms of number of seats.
* I maybe completely wrong, but I think 18-24 is the right seat range for the LDs.
If true then then suggests 1 or 2 of those would be British if all people equally exposed, which isn't the case.
Assuming the average Brit spends 1 week a year near coconut trees on holiday, that would result in 1 death every 30 years, give or take a bit.
(Whilst on the subject of Conservative friends with terrorists and murders, let's not forget Thatcher and her actual personal friendship with a mass murdering tyrant, Pinochet)
Once the Lib Dems are out of a natural Tory area (Solihull, possibly Norfolk North, maybe Westmoreland in the future) they ain't coming back for a long time.
And the fact that Liverpool is far more Labour than it should be purely on demographics (Almost a religion there)
I apologise it wont happen again
Everyone needs to stop point scoring and show respect to all involved in this serious incident
I have been monitoring the Betfair and Spreadex prices a few times a day over the last couple of weeks and they are starting to feel a little out of sync both with each other and the polling.
BF's Con Maj and Con 340+ feel too short.
The Spreadex Con Seat spread mid-price has dropped a few seats recently but still looks a little high.
Does anyone else who follows these markets feel the Tory prospects are being slightly over-done (by both the exchanges and spreads) compared to how the polling trends are looking?
Do we know if anyone else was killed
Arguably inspired by extremist messaging though.