Broadly, the BME vote is more Labour than estimated.
Once the Lib Dems are out of a natural Tory area (Solihull, possibly Norfolk North, maybe Westmoreland in the future) they ain't coming back for a long time.
And the fact that Liverpool is far more Labour than it should be purely on demographics (Almost a religion there)
I wouldn't write North Norfolk off for the Lib Dem. yes they have lost Normal Lamb but they still control the local council and took a lot of seats of the Tories in May
There was a 18% swing to the Tories in Sheringham last night though..
Broadly, the BME vote is more Labour than estimated.
Once the Lib Dems are out of a natural Tory area (Solihull, possibly Norfolk North, maybe Westmoreland in the future) they ain't coming back for a long time.
And the fact that Liverpool is far more Labour than it should be purely on demographics (Almost a religion there)
I wouldn't write North Norfolk off for the Lib Dem. yes they have lost Normal Lamb but they still control the local council and took a lot of seats of the Tories in May
The Lib Dems were underestimated by 7 point in 2017 by the YouGov MRP.
You've got more of a chance of being killed by a falling coconut than a terrorist incident
I need to see the stats on that.
I'd say it's out by a factor of 100 or more, at least for Brits.
Until today, have there been any terrorist attacks in the UK since 2017?
Manchester Victoria stabbings last New Years Eve.
You're right, and that needs to be added to the Wikipedia page.
Culprit was diagnosed with paranoid schizophrenia & believed the government was trying to control his body with high frequency radio waves. Hence (rightly) not classified as a terrorist attack: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-50571279
Broadly, the BME vote is more Labour than estimated.
Once the Lib Dems are out of a natural Tory area (Solihull, possibly Norfolk North, maybe Westmoreland in the future) they ain't coming back for a long time.
And the fact that Liverpool is far more Labour than it should be purely on demographics (Almost a religion there)
I wouldn't write North Norfolk off for the Lib Dem. yes they have lost Normal Lamb but they still control the local council and took a lot of seats of the Tories in May
I think it'll fall to the Tories. Lamb had that rarest of things, a big personal vote
So the exercise left to the reader if take the most accurate predictions from 2017, Find 2019 MRP predictions with odds against winners in those most accurate constituencies and then Private Message me the tips.
I'm not sure that the most accurate last time tells you much about the expectation for this time, but one tip I do have is to take a close look at the Sporting Index '25-10-0' constituency markets (Win=25 points, 2nd=10 points, 3rd or lower=0 points) when it emerges from suspension again. The beauty of those markets is that you can look for value in the ordering of the second and third places. For example I sold the LibDems @ 9.5 in Putney, meaning I lose just 0.5 points if the Yellow Peril come second but win 9.5 points if they come third (at the risk of losing 15.5 points if they win). The YouGov projection is 38% Con, 34% Lab, 23% LD. That price may not be available now, but there may be other such opportunities.
The fact is that all post war prime ministers that first come to power at an election are alumni of Oxford university.
Jeremy Corbyn did not go to Oxford. He will not be prime minister.
It used to be that having a constituency on the A1 was the prerequisite for GE success. Thatcher Finchley, Major Huntingdon, Blair Sedgefield
It didn't help Hague in Richmond in 2001 at all, but he was trumped by near neighbour Blair's equally strong A1 credentials.. 250/1 shot Rishi Sunak will reap all the benefits of the Great North Road as new PM in 2029. Sadly for backers of Laura Piddy Pidcock, her constituency misses the A1 by about 5 miles. So while she may well be labour leader soon, she will never be PM.
Broadly, the BME vote is more Labour than estimated.
Once the Lib Dems are out of a natural Tory area (Solihull, possibly Norfolk North, maybe Westmoreland in the future) they ain't coming back for a long time.
And the fact that Liverpool is far more Labour than it should be purely on demographics (Almost a religion there)
I wouldn't write North Norfolk off for the Lib Dem. yes they have lost Normal Lamb but they still control the local council and took a lot of seats of the Tories in May
I think it'll fall to the Tories. Lamb had that rarest of things, a big personal vote
That's the tribalism of the Labour vote in action. Just because tribal labour voters keep saying 'don't know' when they get closer to the ballot box they will end up deciding to vote for Labour anyway.
The drone vote is incredibly sticky for Labour.
As it is for the Conservatives. I suppose they see Boris behaving like a Regency rake and think of the good old days.
I don't think either is. It's only fear of the other which is keeping them together at the moment. As soon as the loosely attached voters currently in one camp lose their fear of the other, we could well be set for a realignment in England and Wales, the like of which we've not seen since the interwar period.
We've already seen in the vote shares this year incredible volatility, or in the rise and fall of the Brexit Party, or of Change UK (remember that poll that had them on 18%?).
People would once have said that the Scottish Labour vote was as sticky as anywhere: what would they say now?
A technical question for RCS or other "techie PBers. Is there some way of setting the PB page on election night so that postings almost look like a videprinter? Last time because I had shit broadband every time I refreshed a page I found there had been about 100 postings missed and gave up. I will be watching SKY News election programme once more because the BBC graphics in the last few elections have been dreadful and although I couldnt stand him as Speaker, I suspect little Bercow's acidic wit will make him a perfect locutor on election night.
That went well then. "I've got a bomb". Bang (goes the gun).
Well, no sympathy for the arsehole from me.
Hoaxes are meant to be funny (to some people, at least). This managed it in the darkest way imaginable. Distinct lack of tears being shed in our office.
You've got more of a chance of being killed by a falling coconut than a terrorist incident
I need to see the stats on that.
I'd say it's out by a factor of 100 or more, at least for Brits.
Until today, have there been any terrorist attacks in the UK since 2017?
Manchester Victoria stabbings last New Years Eve.
You're right, and that needs to be added to the Wikipedia page.
Culprit was diagnosed with paranoid schizophrenia & believed the government was trying to control his body with high frequency radio waves. Hence (rightly) not classified as a terrorist attack: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-50571279
He pleaded guilty to a terror charge.
Fair. Guess you could argue it either way depending on how tightly you chose to define your terms.
The fact is that all post war prime ministers that first come to power at an election are alumni of Oxford university.
Jeremy Corbyn did not go to Oxford. He will not be prime minister.
It used to be that having a constituency on the A1 was the prerequisite for GE success. Thatcher Finchley, Major Huntingdon, Blair Sedgefield
I `m not sure whether Vulpus Rex is joking or alleging some some sort of conspiracy theory.
No - it's just a bizarre coincidence. Callahan, Major, Brown and May did not come to power at an election but all other post war PMs did and they all went to Oxford. (May did go to Oxford but that's a coincidence).
I'm going to stand up for gabs here. He/she is entitled to an opinion. I don't like this telling people to 'shut up' because people find an opinion distasteful or controversial - or even badly timed. It's borderline bullying. Lord knows I do not agree with the excrement that pours of the mouths of Corbynistas here, but they have the right to say it nonetheless.
Shocked to hear about the London Bridge incident. Hope everyone makes a speedy recovery and just hope this is a one off and doesn't mark a run of incidents like we had during the 2017 general election campaign.
Broadly, the BME vote is more Labour than estimated.
Once the Lib Dems are out of a natural Tory area (Solihull, possibly Norfolk North, maybe Westmoreland in the future) they ain't coming back for a long time.
And the fact that Liverpool is far more Labour than it should be purely on demographics (Almost a religion there)
I wouldn't write North Norfolk off for the Lib Dem. yes they have lost Normal Lamb but they still control the local council and took a lot of seats of the Tories in May
I think it'll fall to the Tories. Lamb had that rarest of things, a big personal vote
I think so. He won it 5 times and stood for 2 elections prior to that - huge name recognition. It feels like the personal vote might dissipate - the demographics of the patch scream tory.
Hard not to play politics with today, given Corbyn's position would mean a full scale debate before the use of firearms, whilst the unarmed public lie on top of the terrorist.
I'm going to stand up for gabs here. He/she is entitled to an opinion. I don't like this telling people to 'shut up' because people find an opinion distasteful or controversial - or even badly timed. It's borderline bullying. Lord knows I do not agree with the excrement that pours of the mouths of Corbynistas here, but they have the right to say it nonetheless.
I have been monitoring the Betfair and Spreadex prices a few times a day over the last couple of weeks and they are starting to feel a little out of sync both with each other and the polling.
BF's Con Maj and Con 340+ feel too short.
The Spreadex Con Seat spread mid-price has dropped a few seats recently but still looks a little high.
Does anyone else who follows these markets feel the Tory prospects are being slightly over-done (by both the exchanges and spreads) compared to how the polling trends are looking?
Yes, I agree - and tipped going Under with W HIl at 350.5 seats @ 5/6 this morning (now adusted to 348.5, but still value.
I'm going to stand up for gabs here. He/she is entitled to an opinion. I don't like this telling people to 'shut up' because people find an opinion distasteful or controversial - or even badly timed. It's borderline bullying. Lord knows I do not agree with the excrement that pours of the mouths of Corbynistas here, but they have the right to say it nonetheless.
Who knows in this day and age (there will obviously be an enquiry) but if as reported he had a suicide vest (which you’d naturally assume would be real) and “something in his hand” (a detonator) and he was shouting that he’d press it it’s difficult to see how shooting him wouldn’t be the right call.
The fact is that all post war prime ministers that first come to power at an election are alumni of Oxford university.
Jeremy Corbyn did not go to Oxford. He will not be prime minister.
It used to be that having a constituency on the A1 was the prerequisite for GE success. Thatcher Finchley, Major Huntingdon, Blair Sedgefield
It didn't help Hague in Richmond in 2001 at all, but he was trumped by near neighbour Blair's equally strong A1 credentials.. 250/1 shot Rishi Sunak will reap all the benefits of the Great North Road as new PM in 2029. Sadly for backers of Laura Piddy Pidcock, her constituency misses the A1 by about 5 miles. So while she may well be labour leader soon, she will never be PM.
It's occurred to me that Ed Milliband's Doncaster North constituency straddles the A1. Clearly Mike's A1 theory is bollocks.
And the fact that Liverpool is far more Labour than it should be purely on demographics (Almost a religion there)
Hillsborough?
Plus Boris articles on "scousers playing the victim all the time". [that may in fact be the same thing!]
Plus the tory propaganda comic isn't generally sold or bought in the city.
I don't think voting Conservative is seen as particularly socially acceptable in Liverpool whereas in the coalfields it's starting to relent. Social deprivation is still the biggest factor in determining whether a seat is Tory or Labour.
Who knows in this day and age (there will obviously be an enquiry) but if as reported he had a suicide vest (which you’d naturally assume would be real) and “something in his hand” (a detonator) and he was shouting that he’d press it it’s difficult to see how shooting him wouldn’t be the right call.
It's one sure way to get yourself to killed. There will be the standard investigation, but you only have to look at the way the members of the public started to move away to know that they thought it was real.
The fact is that all post war prime ministers that first come to power at an election are alumni of Oxford university.
Jeremy Corbyn did not go to Oxford. He will not be prime minister.
It used to be that having a constituency on the A1 was the prerequisite for GE success. Thatcher Finchley, Major Huntingdon, Blair Sedgefield
It didn't help Hague in Richmond in 2001 at all, but he was trumped by near neighbour Blair's equally strong A1 credentials.. 250/1 shot Rishi Sunak will reap all the benefits of the Great North Road as new PM in 2029. Sadly for backers of Laura Piddy Pidcock, her constituency misses the A1 by about 5 miles. So while she may well be labour leader soon, she will never be PM.
It's occurred to me that Ed Milliband's Doncaster North constituency straddles the A1. Clearly Mike's A1 theory is bollocks.
Who knows in this day and age (there will obviously be an enquiry) but if as reported he had a suicide vest (which you’d naturally assume would be real) and “something in his hand” (a detonator) and he was shouting that he’d press it it’s difficult to see how shooting him wouldn’t be the right call.
It's one sure way to get yourself to killed. There will be the standard investigation, but you only have to look at the way the members of the public started to move away to know that they thought it was real.
Motive is weird one here.
Somebody mentally ill, death by cop, or a wannabe terrorist who didn’t have the kit (also a bit ill)?
Who knows in this day and age (there will obviously be an enquiry) but if as reported he had a suicide vest (which you’d naturally assume would be real) and “something in his hand” (a detonator) and he was shouting that he’d press it it’s difficult to see how shooting him wouldn’t be the right call.
Pretty clear from the footage that the police suddenly pulled back when they saw his vest and had no choice but to shoot to kill to stop him detonating it.
What’s a bit different compared to previous attacks is he was attacking people in premises nearby , why did he pick that one .
The fact is that all post war prime ministers that first come to power at an election are alumni of Oxford university.
Jeremy Corbyn did not go to Oxford. He will not be prime minister.
It used to be that having a constituency on the A1 was the prerequisite for GE success. Thatcher Finchley, Major Huntingdon, Blair Sedgefield
It didn't help Hague in Richmond in 2001 at all, but he was trumped by near neighbour Blair's equally strong A1 credentials.. 250/1 shot Rishi Sunak will reap all the benefits of the Great North Road as new PM in 2029. Sadly for backers of Laura Piddy Pidcock, her constituency misses the A1 by about 5 miles. So while she may well be labour leader soon, she will never be PM.
It's occurred to me that Ed Milliband's Doncaster North constituency straddles the A1. Clearly Mike's A1 theory is bollocks.
Clear proof of Tory gerrymandering.
I think it was built by the Romans. The potholes were filled in by the tories.
Who knows in this day and age (there will obviously be an enquiry) but if as reported he had a suicide vest (which you’d naturally assume would be real) and “something in his hand” (a detonator) and he was shouting that he’d press it it’s difficult to see how shooting him wouldn’t be the right call.
It's one sure way to get yourself to killed. There will be the standard investigation, but you only have to look at the way the members of the public started to move away to know that they thought it was real.
They should have moved further away and faster, though.
Having spotted the news on here of the London terror attack, turned on SKY news to see what has happened. Brave individuals who tackled him should be considered for the George Cross.
Owen Jones' political views irritate the hell out of me but he strikes me as a nice guy so I am glad he is safe and hope those injured recover quickly. Well done the MET who reacted quickly and shot the suspect with what has now been established to be a fake explosives belt on. The police didnt know that when they ran towards him.
Boris just filmed rushing back to Downing St from Uxbridge and I suspect a statement to follow. Sadiq Khan speaking very well right now.
Lots of people use tragedies, and its not even inherently wrong to do so - sometimes we need to react - but gun advocates can be particularly shameless at times.
Who knows in this day and age (there will obviously be an enquiry) but if as reported he had a suicide vest (which you’d naturally assume would be real) and “something in his hand” (a detonator) and he was shouting that he’d press it it’s difficult to see how shooting him wouldn’t be the right call.
I find it hard to believe that anyone is going to blame the police for the action they took. The senselessness of it all is so utterly depressing. Presumably, we'll find out soon who the attacker was. The chances are he'll be someone with a history of low level mental health disorders and/or a criminal past, and he'll have been radicalised at some point by the usual hate-filled bigots posing as religious leaders. One life lost, many others torn to shreds and what the hell for?
Nasty sounding incident. Hope there's been no political point scoring going on here.😐
Heaven forefend. I'm sure the BJ boosters will have learned lessons from trying to immediately associate the Manchester Arena bombing with Jezza and predicting how disastrous it would be for his GE chances.
Who knows in this day and age (there will obviously be an enquiry) but if as reported he had a suicide vest (which you’d naturally assume would be real) and “something in his hand” (a detonator) and he was shouting that he’d press it it’s difficult to see how shooting him wouldn’t be the right call.
It's one sure way to get yourself to killed. There will be the standard investigation, but you only have to look at the way the members of the public started to move away to know that they thought it was real.
Motive is weird one here.
Somebody mentally ill, death by cop, or a wannabe terrorist who didn’t have the kit (also a bit ill)?
The attackers at the same location in 2017 had fake vests on too.
Who knows in this day and age (there will obviously be an enquiry) but if as reported he had a suicide vest (which you’d naturally assume would be real) and “something in his hand” (a detonator) and he was shouting that he’d press it it’s difficult to see how shooting him wouldn’t be the right call.
It's one sure way to get yourself to killed. There will be the standard investigation, but you only have to look at the way the members of the public started to move away to know that they thought it was real.
They should have moved further away and faster, though.
True, people are often feel safer than they should.
Who knows in this day and age (there will obviously be an enquiry) but if as reported he had a suicide vest (which you’d naturally assume would be real) and “something in his hand” (a detonator) and he was shouting that he’d press it it’s difficult to see how shooting him wouldn’t be the right call.
I find it hard to believe that anyone is going to blame the police for the action they took. The senselessness of it all is so utterly depressing. Presumably, we'll find out soon who the attacker was. The chances are he'll be someone with a history of low level mental health disorders and/or a criminal past, and he'll have been radicalised at some point by the usual hate-filled bigots posing as religious leaders. One life lost, many others torn to shreds and what the hell for?
Give it time and there will be such blame from some, its inevitable. But unless there is genuine merit to that line of thought it will remain a fringe view.
Who knows in this day and age (there will obviously be an enquiry) but if as reported he had a suicide vest (which you’d naturally assume would be real) and “something in his hand” (a detonator) and he was shouting that he’d press it it’s difficult to see how shooting him wouldn’t be the right call.
If it was a suicide vest then it would probably have a dead man's switch to explode when the grip is released. Luckily it is hard to buy explosives. The main trouble is that if the baddies are relying on convincing people they will go straight to heaven if they stab a kaffir, then killing them might make it easier to recruit the next (probably mentally ill) terrorist.
Who knows in this day and age (there will obviously be an enquiry) but if as reported he had a suicide vest (which you’d naturally assume would be real) and “something in his hand” (a detonator) and he was shouting that he’d press it it’s difficult to see how shooting him wouldn’t be the right call.
I find it hard to believe that anyone is going to blame the police for the action they took. The senselessness of it all is so utterly depressing. Presumably, we'll find out soon who the attacker was. The chances are he'll be someone with a history of low level mental health disorders and/or a criminal past, and he'll have been radicalised at some point by the usual hate-filled bigots posing as religious leaders. One life lost, many others torn to shreds and what the hell for?
And the fact that Liverpool is far more Labour than it should be purely on demographics (Almost a religion there)
Hillsborough?
Plus Boris articles on "scousers playing the victim all the time". [that may in fact be the same thing!]
My understanding was that Boris didn't write that, but stood up and took the flak on behalf of the person who did.
It was a Spectator editorial and Boris, who was the Spectator's editor at the time, had no choice but to take responsibility. The actual author was believed to be Simon Heffer who, in the now great tradition of venerable conservative journalists, seems to regard Boris as an amoral chump.
The fact is that all post war prime ministers that first come to power at an election are alumni of Oxford university.
Jeremy Corbyn did not go to Oxford. He will not be prime minister.
It used to be that having a constituency on the A1 was the prerequisite for GE success. Thatcher Finchley, Major Huntingdon, Blair Sedgefield
I `m not sure whether Vulpus Rex is joking or alleging some some sort of conspiracy theory.
No - it's just a bizarre coincidence. Callahan, Major, Brown and May did not come to power at an election but all other post war PMs did and they all went to Oxford. (May did go to Oxford but that's a coincidence).
I can't see Corbyn breaking this link.
Churchill came to power (for the second time) in the 1951 General Election. Post war. Did not go to uni.
The fact is that all post war prime ministers that first come to power at an election are alumni of Oxford university.
Jeremy Corbyn did not go to Oxford. He will not be prime minister.
It used to be that having a constituency on the A1 was the prerequisite for GE success. Thatcher Finchley, Major Huntingdon, Blair Sedgefield
It didn't help Hague in Richmond in 2001 at all, but he was trumped by near neighbour Blair's equally strong A1 credentials.. 250/1 shot Rishi Sunak will reap all the benefits of the Great North Road as new PM in 2029. Sadly for backers of Laura Piddy Pidcock, her constituency misses the A1 by about 5 miles. So while she may well be labour leader soon, she will never be PM.
It's occurred to me that Ed Milliband's Doncaster North constituency straddles the A1. Clearly Mike's A1 theory is bollocks.
Clear proof of Tory gerrymandering.
I think it was built by the Romans. The potholes were filled in by the tories.
Much of it is pre-Roman. Up to the Trent it is the prehistoric Sewestern Lane.
The main North South Roman road was Ermine Street which runs further to the East most of the way. And incidentally runs by my front door.
If you are looking at future Tory PMs based on the A1 then the current housing minister Robert Jennrick might becworth a punt.
The fact is that all post war prime ministers that first come to power at an election are alumni of Oxford university.
Jeremy Corbyn did not go to Oxford. He will not be prime minister.
It used to be that having a constituency on the A1 was the prerequisite for GE success. Thatcher Finchley, Major Huntingdon, Blair Sedgefield
I `m not sure whether Vulpus Rex is joking or alleging some some sort of conspiracy theory.
No - it's just a bizarre coincidence. Callahan, Major, Brown and May did not come to power at an election but all other post war PMs did and they all went to Oxford. (May did go to Oxford but that's a coincidence).
I can't see Corbyn breaking this link.
Churchill came to power (for the second time) in the 1951 General Election. Post war. Did not go to uni.
And the fact that Liverpool is far more Labour than it should be purely on demographics (Almost a religion there)
Hillsborough?
Plus Boris articles on "scousers playing the victim all the time". [that may in fact be the same thing!]
My understanding was that Boris didn't write that, but stood up and took the flak on behalf of the person who did.
He was the editor of The Spectator and it was an unsigned leading article. I know he is renowned for being lazy and not doing his job (as Nazarin Zaghari-Ratcliffe knows to her cost), but any such article would have been approved by the editor (and possibly either written by him or under his direction). Boris' only defence is incompetence as editor.
A technical question for RCS or other "techie PBers. Is there some way of setting the PB page on election night so that postings almost look like a videprinter? Last time because I had shit broadband every time I refreshed a page I found there had been about 100 postings missed and gave up. I will be watching SKY News election programme once more because the BBC graphics in the last few elections have been dreadful and although I couldnt stand him as Speaker, I suspect little Bercow's acidic wit will make him a perfect locutor on election night.
I avoid PB on GE night myself (no offence to anyone) as I like to watch the TV coverage play out almost like a movie and I don't like seeing results posted early on other sources because to me that's like reading a spoiler. Yes... I know I'm weird.
The fact is that all post war prime ministers that first come to power at an election are alumni of Oxford university.
Jeremy Corbyn did not go to Oxford. He will not be prime minister.
It used to be that having a constituency on the A1 was the prerequisite for GE success. Thatcher Finchley, Major Huntingdon, Blair Sedgefield
It didn't help Hague in Richmond in 2001 at all, but he was trumped by near neighbour Blair's equally strong A1 credentials.. 250/1 shot Rishi Sunak will reap all the benefits of the Great North Road as new PM in 2029. Sadly for backers of Laura Piddy Pidcock, her constituency misses the A1 by about 5 miles. So while she may well be labour leader soon, she will never be PM.
It's occurred to me that Ed Milliband's Doncaster North constituency straddles the A1. Clearly Mike's A1 theory is bollocks.
Clear proof of Tory gerrymandering.
I think it was built by the Romans. The potholes were filled in by the tories.
The former is reasonable but, as all of Surrey knows, Conservatives do not repair potholes.
And the fact that Liverpool is far more Labour than it should be purely on demographics (Almost a religion there)
Hillsborough?
Plus Boris articles on "scousers playing the victim all the time". [that may in fact be the same thing!]
My understanding was that Boris didn't write that, but stood up and took the flak on behalf of the person who did.
It was a Spectator editorial and Boris, who was the Spectator's editor at the time, had no choice but to take responsibility. The actual author was believed to be Simon Heffer who, in the now great tradition of venerable conservative journalists, seems to regard Boris as an amoral chump.
I actually had a bit of respect for him after that interview.
Boris could actually be alright if he had a bit of backbone in him and a moral compass, but the trouble is he lets himself time and time again by his utter self-centeredness.
Lots of people use tragedies, and its not even inherently wrong to do so - sometimes we need to react - but gun advocates can be particularly shameless at times.
I can't help but think if all the public had been armed there might well have been more casualties from the cross fire.
Nasty sounding incident. Hope there's been no political point scoring going on here.😐
Heaven forefend. I'm sure the BJ boosters will have learned lessons from trying to immediately associate the Manchester Arena bombing with Jezza and predicting how disastrous it would be for his GE chances.
Suppporters of terrorist supporting politicians changing their behaviour by not supporting terrorist supporting politicians, just because of the terrorism of the terrorists the said politicians are said to support, is giving the terrorists exactly what they want
Yes, preferably he loses, or he is comfortable, but not landslide or ERG dependent
Pretty much all outcomes are unpalatable tbh: hung parliament and we have the last year repeated ad nauseum, narrow Con maj and we get ERG trying to sabotage trade talks, and bigger Con maj gives someone unworthy of being PM free reign …. and don't even get me started on the prospect of Corbyn being PM.
That went well then. "I've got a bomb". Bang (goes the gun).
Well, no sympathy for the arsehole from me.
Hoaxes are meant to be funny (to some people, at least). This managed it in the darkest way imaginable. Distinct lack of tears being shed in our office.
A fake suicide vest is the way to cause maximum death and injury before being taken down. Doesn't have to bare close examination - packets of putty and some coloured wires going into them does the job. It is the way to use recruits who have no skills and/or no weapons traing to maximum effect. The public taking them on shouldn't happen, in their planning.
On topic: Anything that reduces Johnson's majority if fine by me
Surely the last thing you want is him on a small majority and beholden to the ERG
The Tories, ERG etc. will probably not have my vote again for several elections. Given my age, I may never vote Tory again. I will take my chances with Corbyn, LibDems, minority govts, whateever - but I will never trust a Tory govt again. Boris is, IMO, an amoral, narcissistic toe-rag who has no business being in govt.
Yes, preferably he loses, or he is comfortable, but not landslide or ERG dependent
Pretty much all outcomes are unpalatable tbh: hung parliament and we have the last year repeated ad nauseum, narrow Con maj and we get ERG trying to sabotage trade talks, and bigger Con maj gives someone unworthy of being PM free reign …. and don't even get me started on the prospect of Corbyn being PM.
You could have taken the words out of my mouth. Every possible outcome is awful, though the worst of all is Jeremy Corbyn
Anyone on PB making snide remarks or trying to make political capital out of this tragic incident in London should hang his/her head in shame!
If I thought for one second that Corbynistas weren't trying to make political capital out of this situation by telling everyone else not to make political capital out of this situation.............
Casino_Royale said (of Boris on Liverpool); "I actually had a bit of respect for him after that interview. Boris could actually be alright if he had a bit of backbone in him and a moral compass, but the trouble is he lets himself time and time again by his utter self-centeredness." Oddly, having criticised his performance in the Speccie debacle, I see no reason to disagree with the view of Liverpool and would have had more respect for him if he had said, we said it as we see it. My view of Hillsborough (and similar matters involving Liverpool fans) is that the disaster was conditioned by the prior behaviour of the fans, which affected the police response particularly. I recall standing in the family enclosure at The Hawthorns in the early 80s and the Liverpool fans pelting us (including young children) with sharpened 2p coins. If I had been an officer and seen the events unfolding at Hillsborough my first reaction would be that it was fans rioting. It was most unfortunate that it was the innocent Liverpool supporters (the vast majority) who died, rather than the small minority of scum who gave them a bad name and were ultimately responsible.
The fact is that all post war prime ministers that first come to power at an election are alumni of Oxford university.
Jeremy Corbyn did not go to Oxford. He will not be prime minister.
It used to be that having a constituency on the A1 was the prerequisite for GE success. Thatcher Finchley, Major Huntingdon, Blair Sedgefield
It didn't help Hague in Richmond in 2001 at all, but he was trumped by near neighbour Blair's equally strong A1 credentials.. 250/1 shot Rishi Sunak will reap all the benefits of the Great North Road as new PM in 2029. Sadly for backers of Laura Piddy Pidcock, her constituency misses the A1 by about 5 miles. So while she may well be labour leader soon, she will never be PM.
It's occurred to me that Ed Milliband's Doncaster North constituency straddles the A1. Clearly Mike's A1 theory is bollocks.
Clear proof of Tory gerrymandering.
I think it was built by the Romans. The potholes were filled in by the tories.
The former is reasonable but, as all of Surrey knows, Conservatives do not repair potholes.
A technical question for RCS or other "techie PBers. Is there some way of setting the PB page on election night so that postings almost look like a videprinter? Last time because I had shit broadband every time I refreshed a page I found there had been about 100 postings missed and gave up. I will be watching SKY News election programme once more because the BBC graphics in the last few elections have been dreadful and although I couldnt stand him as Speaker, I suspect little Bercow's acidic wit will make him a perfect locutor on election night.
I avoid PB on GE night myself (no offence to anyone) as I like to watch the TV coverage play out almost like a movie and I don't like seeing results posted early on other sources because to me that's like reading a spoiler. Yes... I know I'm weird.
No you are not alone. I will turn on SKY News at 9pm and lie in bed and watch the programme through until breakfast time surrounded by my dogs who will hopefully be sleeping and my printed spreadsheets to mark off seats as they are called and whether they are among those I have predicted to change hands.
Anyone on PB making snide remarks or trying to make political capital out of this tragic incident in London should hang his/her head in shame!
I think it is fair to make some clear headed assessment of how it might impact the political landscape though. My immediate assessment is that when the terror incidents happened in 2017, May was grievously exposed to the charge of 20,000 police officers having been taken off the beat on her watch. Her having been Home Secretary compounded the sense of grievance. It did her immense harm. I don't see this incident having the same political impact.
I was sitting at my computer reviewing constituency profiles and posting rubbish on here when I heard about manchester in 2017. All very deja vu.
I'd been up watching Newsnight and Sky News, when I saw one single tweet from someone I knew saying something like 'What the hell was that? Sounded like a bomb on Deansgate', put on Radio Manchester.
The public and emergency service response was phenomenal then, too.
A technical question for RCS or other "techie PBers. Is there some way of setting the PB page on election night so that postings almost look like a videprinter? Last time because I had shit broadband every time I refreshed a page I found there had been about 100 postings missed and gave up. I will be watching SKY News election programme once more because the BBC graphics in the last few elections have been dreadful and although I couldnt stand him as Speaker, I suspect little Bercow's acidic wit will make him a perfect locutor on election night.
I avoid PB on GE night myself (no offence to anyone) as I like to watch the TV coverage play out almost like a movie and I don't like seeing results posted early on other sources because to me that's like reading a spoiler. Yes... I know I'm weird.
No you are not alone. I will turn on SKY News at 9pm and lie in bed and watch the programme through until breakfast time surrounded by my dogs who will hopefully be sleeping and my printed spreadsheets to mark off seats as they are called and whether they are among those I have predicted to change hands.
I will be shitting a brick from late afternoon till about 10.01pm (possibly beyond if it’s a bad result) and then doing the same.
I may just get lashed to cope, but then again I do have a small child to consider.
On topic: Anything that reduces Johnson's majority if fine by me
Surely the last thing you want is him on a small majority and beholden to the ERG
He is already beholden to the ERG. Boris Johnson does not really believe in Brexit, but he sold his soul for the title of PM. He will forever be in the pocket of the extreme right of the Tory Party ( I cannot call them Conservative), and will not be able to escape it.
Anyone on PB making snide remarks or trying to make political capital out of this tragic incident in London should hang his/her head in shame!
I think it is fair to make some clear headed assessment of how it might impact the political landscape though. My immediate assessment is that when the terror incidents happened in 2017, May was grievously exposed to the charge of 20,000 police officers having been taken off the beat on her watch. Her having been Home Secretary compounded the sense of grievance. It did her immense harm. I don't see this incident having the same political impact.
As along as all party leaders stand by the police officers decision to shoot to kill.
Anyone on PB making snide remarks or trying to make political capital out of this tragic incident in London should hang his/her head in shame!
I think it is fair to make some clear headed assessment of how it might impact the political landscape though. My immediate assessment is that when the terror incidents happened in 2017, May was grievously exposed to the charge of 20,000 police officers having been taken off the beat on her watch. Her having been Home Secretary compounded the sense of grievance. It did her immense harm. I don't see this incident having the same political impact.
It's already neutered by the announcement of 20,000 new police officers (if you ignore the fact it's actually only 11,000 new officers as 9,000 are due to retire).
Equally Johnson has never been near the Home Office and hasn't been in power 6 months.
What it will do is dominate the news which might be good for the Tories this time around.
Anyone on PB making snide remarks or trying to make political capital out of this tragic incident in London should hang his/her head in shame!
I disagree, that's just an excuse to shut down legitimate debate that people find uncomfortable. It is entirely reasonable to discuss the causes and responses to terrorism in the aftermath of an incident.
On that matter, we all know that Corbyn has a record of saying some very stupid stuff about fighting terrorism, he did so only a few weeks ago when al-Baghdadi was killed. I hope Corbyn gets asked what the police should have done today.
On topic: Anything that reduces Johnson's majority if fine by me
Surely the last thing you want is him on a small majority and beholden to the ERG
He is already beholden to the ERG. Boris Johnson does not really believe in Brexit, but he sold his soul for the title of PM. He will forever be in the pocket of the extreme right of the Tory Party ( I cannot call them Conservative), and will not be able to escape it.
Hes beholden now because he has no majority. It is possible he would not be beholden afterwards, it depends if new mps are ERG types or loyalists. The latter mean he would not be committed. Hes rented his soul not sold it.
Comments
The beauty of those markets is that you can look for value in the ordering of the second and third places. For example I sold the LibDems @ 9.5 in Putney, meaning I lose just 0.5 points if the Yellow Peril come second but win 9.5 points if they come third (at the risk of losing 15.5 points if they win). The YouGov projection is 38% Con, 34% Lab, 23% LD.
That price may not be available now, but there may be other such opportunities.
"I've got a bomb".
Bang (goes the gun).
Sadly for backers of Laura Piddy Pidcock, her constituency misses the A1 by about 5 miles. So while she may well be labour leader soon, she will never be PM.
We've already seen in the vote shares this year incredible volatility, or in the rise and fall of the Brexit Party, or of Change UK (remember that poll that had them on 18%?).
People would once have said that the Scottish Labour vote was as sticky as anywhere: what would they say now?
Distinct lack of tears being shed in our office.
Kirkcaldy may now get very complicated however,......
I think it was pretty clear that the police thought he had a suicide vest by their actions . The public who intervened what absolute heroes .
I can't see Corbyn breaking this link.
Unbelievable.
Clearly Mike's A1 theory is bollocks.
Social deprivation is still the biggest factor in determining whether a seat is Tory or Labour.
Somebody mentally ill, death by cop, or a wannabe terrorist who didn’t have the kit (also a bit ill)?
What’s a bit different compared to previous attacks is he was attacking people in premises nearby , why did he pick that one .
Owen Jones' political views irritate the hell out of me but he strikes me as a nice guy so I am glad he is safe and hope those injured recover quickly. Well done the MET who reacted quickly and shot the suspect with what has now been established to be a fake explosives belt on. The police didnt know that when they ran towards him.
Boris just filmed rushing back to Downing St from Uxbridge and I suspect a statement to follow. Sadiq Khan speaking very well right now.
I'm sure the BJ boosters will have learned lessons from trying to immediately associate the Manchester Arena bombing with Jezza and predicting how disastrous it would be for his GE chances.
Humans are weird.
Any way I refer you to XKCD's take on this kind of thinkg
https://xkcd.com/1122/
The main North South Roman road was Ermine Street which runs further to the East most of the way. And incidentally runs by my front door.
If you are looking at future Tory PMs based on the A1 then the current housing minister Robert Jennrick might becworth a punt.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50601517
If he’s going to win I want him to win big.
Won’t happen though.
Boris could actually be alright if he had a bit of backbone in him and a moral compass, but the trouble is he lets himself time and time again by his utter self-centeredness.
The public taking them on shouldn't happen, in their planning.
Boris is, IMO, an amoral, narcissistic toe-rag who has no business being in govt.
All very deja vu.
51 seats is the best the SNP can get too without the Lib Dem vote totally collapsing. Too many rock solid safe seats.
That man who disarmed the attacker, then walked away with the knife, clearly prevented further loss of life and serious injury.
"I actually had a bit of respect for him after that interview. Boris could actually be alright if he had a bit of backbone in him and a moral compass, but the trouble is he lets himself time and time again by his utter self-centeredness."
Oddly, having criticised his performance in the Speccie debacle, I see no reason to disagree with the view of Liverpool and would have had more respect for him if he had said, we said it as we see it.
My view of Hillsborough (and similar matters involving Liverpool fans) is that the disaster was conditioned by the prior behaviour of the fans, which affected the police response particularly. I recall standing in the family enclosure at The Hawthorns in the early 80s and the Liverpool fans pelting us (including young children) with sharpened 2p coins. If I had been an officer and seen the events unfolding at Hillsborough my first reaction would be that it was fans rioting. It was most unfortunate that it was the innocent Liverpool supporters (the vast majority) who died, rather than the small minority of scum who gave them a bad name and were ultimately responsible.
It did her immense harm.
I don't see this incident having the same political impact.
The public and emergency service response was phenomenal then, too.
I may just get lashed to cope, but then again I do have a small child to consider.
Equally Johnson has never been near the Home Office and hasn't been in power 6 months.
What it will do is dominate the news which might be good for the Tories this time around.
On that matter, we all know that Corbyn has a record of saying some very stupid stuff about fighting terrorism, he did so only a few weeks ago when al-Baghdadi was killed. I hope Corbyn gets asked what the police should have done today.