politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs slump to just 7 percent in the first two of tonight
Comments
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Imo, that's looking good for a UKIP gain because they could only need a very low share of the vote to take it, possibly only 30% or so. The Tories operated at maximum capacity in Cornwall in 2010 and I doubt "posh boys showering goodies on fellow rich people" will really go down well there, so they'll probably suffer a big drop. The Lib Dems are holding up relatively well in the rural parts of the southwest, but "relatively well" for their abysmal standards still probably means a drop of about 8%. And Labour did decently in the locals in that constituency last year and might eat up some votes, all of which could drag the winning post back quite far.Stuart_Dickson said:Camborne & Redruth (Con maj = 66) is looking like a bit of a nail biter:
Con 8/15 (PP)
LD 5/2
UKIP 10/1 (Lad)
Lab 20/1 (Lad)
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The LibDems seem to be getting most of the flak on PB.com this evening but in fact both polls are really bad news for the Tories - just when swingback is supposed to be taking effect they are going backwards.
Not that surprising I suppose considering Dave's hopeless, bungling handling of the Maria Miller saga over the past 2 weeks during which time he totally failed to understand the public mood.0 -
Much of what you say re local and GE Lib Dem vote share is correct . however the main reason for the higher vote share in local elections is the lower and differential turnouts which particularly when Labour is in office depresses the Labour vote share in local elections . Compare the 2010 v 2007/2008 Met results for example .Danny565 said:
Lib Dems always, always, ALWAYS do better in local elections than general elections. LD councillors are generally very good at doing things in the local community that pull in people who would never consider voting for the party in a general election. Certainly there's anecdotes a plenty of canvassers (from all parties) in recent years hearing comments along the lines of "the local Lib Dems have done a good job round here so I'll vote for them, but I won't vote for the sellouts in parliament again before hell freezes over".JosiasJessop said:
Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.anotherDave said:
Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)JosiasJessop said:Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
Even in 2010, despite the late surge they got ahead of the general election, the 23% they got was STILL below their average share in the local elections in the previous 4 years (26%, which already was quite mediocre by LDs' standards). So, with the party getting 14/15% in recent local elections, that would suggest their absolute maximum next year is 11/12% with the local factor stripped out.
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That gets to the crux of the matter. It's been widely accepted that the lib dem VI will naturally go up for the 2015 election because of factors like that. It seems reasonable enough but just look at what happened to Clegg when he was up against Farage on a subject that was far less explosive for any lib dem inclined voters than his own record in government will be in the 2015 debates.AndyJS said:
In reality they wouldn't go below 10-12% because of personal votes for various MPs and candidates, something which national opinion polls can't take into account.JosiasJessop said:Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.
Clegg and his spinners thought they couldn't lose because Farage would be an easy contrast and help nullify Clegg's association with the tories. It simply did not work. Clegg was and is toxic. You put him in the 2015 debates alongside little Ed and Cammie and he's going to struggle hugely. Every single policy promise Clegg makes will not only have to be believed by the public but be robust enough to survive a "red line" test, whereby he will be asked continually which policies he would dump if he ended up in a coalition again. It all comes down to trust in the end after all. Which means, though there will be MPs with a strong personal following, there won't be all that many who can feel anything like 'safe' if things keep going as they have been.0 -
To misquote an earlier post.
The SNP have always been an uneasy alliance of right of centre and left of centre folk.
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http://www.westbriton.co.uk/Julia-Goldsworthy-Labour-s-parliamentary/story-20849879-detail/story.html
Not sure this is the best idea, wonder if she is still up for it after the Clegg fiasco:Stuart_Dickson said:Camborne & Redruth (Con maj = 66) is looking like a bit of a nail biter:
Con 8/15 (PP)
LD 5/2
UKIP 10/1 (Lad)
Lab 20/1 (Lad)
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I agree — that's why I included it my list. There are constituencies where UKIP could easily poll more than 30% without winning the seat such as Christchurch, Bootle, Castle Point, Worthing West, Great Grimsby.Danny565 said:
Imo, that's looking good for a UKIP gain because they could only need a very low share of the vote to take it, possibly only 30% or so. The Tories operated at maximum capacity in Cornwall in 2010 and I doubt "posh boys showering goodies on fellow rich people" will really go down well there, so they'll probably suffer a big drop. The Lib Dems are holding up relatively well in the rural parts of the southwest, but "relatively well" for their abysmal standards still probably means a drop of about 8%. And Labour did decently in the locals in that constituency last year and might eat up some votes, all of which could drag the winning post back quite far.Stuart_Dickson said:Camborne & Redruth (Con maj = 66) is looking like a bit of a nail biter:
Con 8/15 (PP)
LD 5/2
UKIP 10/1 (Lad)
Lab 20/1 (Lad)
The best bets for UKIP are where there's a big split in votes between the other parties, like Camborne, Thanet South, Torbay, Easteligh.0 -
LDs lost by-election deposit on 8 occasions since 2010 (a total of 15 GB contests)
http://t.co/VBgDNsxbwv0 -
I would say there's a 99% chance the LDs will get between 12% and 17% at GE2015.0
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Mr. Putney, a couple of polls from the same period are not sufficient to identify a trend, or the reversal of a trend.
The Miller case was badly handled. She was there long enough to do damage, then left to damage Cameron in that way too.0 -
Hill's saying referendum could be a photo finish (ignoring the various arses on here obviously):
'“Although the odds make ‘no’ a relatively warm favorite, they have changed quite significantly in recent months,” William Hill spokesman Graeme Sharpe said in an e-mail. “It would be no surprise to see them coming together even more before the day of the vote. It could yet be a photo finish.”
...William Hill said two customers staked 5,000 pounds on Scots voting for independence, while one man in his late 50s in Glasgow made three bets totaling 200,000 pounds on a “no” vote. He stands to make a profit of 36,666 pounds if polls are right and the majority opts to keep the status quo, the bookmaker said.
“We have never taken a bigger bet than this on any political subject,” Sharpe said.'
http://tinyurl.com/q93ubxd
Surprised that that's their biggest political bet (though it is a biggie).
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There was a good article on Scots Referendum in today's FT.0
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Yes, but if Messrs Cameron and Miliband are also participating, Mr Clegg won't be the only one who is obviously lying.Mick_Pork said:
That gets to the crux of the matter. It's been widely accepted that the lib dem VI will naturally go up for the 2015 election because of factors like that. It seems reasonable enough but just look at what happened to Clegg when he was up against Farage on a subject that was far less explosive for any lib dem inclined voters than his own record in government will be in the 2015 debates.AndyJS said:
In reality they wouldn't go below 10-12% because of personal votes for various MPs and candidates, something which national opinion polls can't take into account.JosiasJessop said:Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.
Clegg and his spinners thought they couldn't lose because Farage would be an easy contrast and help nullify Clegg's association with the tories. It simply did not work. Clegg was and is toxic. You put him in the 2015 debates alongside little Ed and Cammie and he's going to struggle hugely. Every single policy promise Clegg makes will not only have to be believed by the public but be robust enough to survive a "red line" test, whereby he will be asked continually which policies he would dump if he ended up in a coalition again. It all comes down to trust in the end after all. Which means, though there will be MPs with a strong personal following, there won't be all that many who can feel anything like 'safe' if things keep going as they have been.
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Can't argue with that on the local Vs GE. It's yet another thing the Clegg leadership simply didn't seem to understand. The lib dems were quite obviously a grass roots focused party so when Clegg and the quartet sprung so many coalition 'surprises' on those grass roots from the top there is naturally going to be a price to pay. It's fairly easy to justify working hard to try and keep local councils and things perceived as well away from Clegg and the coalition, but motivating those activists to do everything they can to keep Clegg himself leader and to endorse all that the coalition has done? Good luck with that.Danny565 said:
Lib Dems always, always, ALWAYS do better in local elections than general elections. LD councillors are generally very good at doing things in the local community that pull in people who would never consider voting for the party in a general election. Certainly there's anecdotes a plenty of canvassers (from all parties) in recent years hearing comments along the lines of "the local Lib Dems have done a good job round here so I'll vote for them, but I won't vote for the sellouts in parliament again before hell freezes over".JosiasJessop said:
Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.anotherDave said:
Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)JosiasJessop said:Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
Even in 2010, despite the late surge they got ahead of the general election, the 23% they got was STILL below their average share in the local elections in the previous 4 years (26%, which already was quite mediocre by LDs' standards). So, with the party getting 14/15% in recent local elections, that would suggest their absolute maximum next year is 11/12% with the local factor stripped out.0 -
Frying pan and fire spring to mind.nigel4england said:
Not sure this is the best idea, wonder if she is still up for it after the Clegg fiasco:Stuart_Dickson said:Camborne & Redruth (Con maj = 66) is looking like a bit of a nail biter:
Con 8/15 (PP)
LD 5/2
UKIP 10/1 (Lad)
Lab 20/1 (Lad)
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I make it 94.7%.AndyJS said:I would say there's a 99% chance the LDs will get between 12% and 17% at GE2015.
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In the debate of the blind the one eyed man is king etc.anotherDave said:
Yes, but if Messrs Cameron and Miliband are also participating, Mr Clegg won't be the only one who is obviously lying.Mick_Pork said:
That gets to the crux of the matter. It's been widely accepted that the lib dem VI will naturally go up for the 2015 election because of factors like that. It seems reasonable enough but just look at what happened to Clegg when he was up against Farage on a subject that was far less explosive for any lib dem inclined voters than his own record in government will be in the 2015 debates.AndyJS said:
In reality they wouldn't go below 10-12% because of personal votes for various MPs and candidates, something which national opinion polls can't take into account.JosiasJessop said:Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.
Clegg and his spinners thought they couldn't lose because Farage would be an easy contrast and help nullify Clegg's association with the tories. It simply did not work. Clegg was and is toxic. You put him in the 2015 debates alongside little Ed and Cammie and he's going to struggle hugely. Every single policy promise Clegg makes will not only have to be believed by the public but be robust enough to survive a "red line" test, whereby he will be asked continually which policies he would dump if he ended up in a coalition again. It all comes down to trust in the end after all. Which means, though there will be MPs with a strong personal following, there won't be all that many who can feel anything like 'safe' if things keep going as they have been.
It's all relative of course. 0 -
Gunfire in eastern Ukraine today:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27005783
I wonder if the Kiev Government will follow Mr. Y0kel's advice and take the risky decisive approach, instead of the riskier indecisive approach.0 -
So, the least crap candidate wins? FPTP is wonderful isn't it.Danny565 said:
Imo, that's looking good for a UKIP gain because they could only need a very low share of the vote to take it, possibly only 30% or so. The Tories operated at maximum capacity in Cornwall in 2010 and I doubt "posh boys showering goodies on fellow rich people" will really go down well there, so they'll probably suffer a big drop. The Lib Dems are holding up relatively well in the rural parts of the southwest, but "relatively well" for their abysmal standards still probably means a drop of about 8%. And Labour did decently in the locals in that constituency last year and might eat up some votes, all of which could drag the winning post back quite far.Stuart_Dickson said:Camborne & Redruth (Con maj = 66) is looking like a bit of a nail biter:
Con 8/15 (PP)
LD 5/2
UKIP 10/1 (Lad)
Lab 20/1 (Lad)
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No but Clegg will be the only one who immediately after the 2010 election reneged on a manifesto commitment that had long been a part of LibDem campaigning, and who then went on to issue an apology in which he said, in more or less as many words, that no LibDem campaign promise can ever be relied on, as it is liable to be abandoned in coalition talks.anotherDave said:
Yes, but if Messrs Cameron and Miliband are also participating, Mr Clegg won't be the only one who is obviously lying.Mick_Pork said:
That gets to the crux of the matter. It's been widely accepted that the lib dem VI will naturally go up for the 2015 election because of factors like that. It seems reasonable enough but just look at what happened to Clegg when he was up against Farage on a subject that was far less explosive for any lib dem inclined voters than his own record in government will be in the 2015 debates.AndyJS said:
In reality they wouldn't go below 10-12% because of personal votes for various MPs and candidates, something which national opinion polls can't take into account.JosiasJessop said:Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.
Clegg and his spinners thought they couldn't lose because Farage would be an easy contrast and help nullify Clegg's association with the tories. It simply did not work. Clegg was and is toxic. You put him in the 2015 debates alongside little Ed and Cammie and he's going to struggle hugely. Every single policy promise Clegg makes will not only have to be believed by the public but be robust enough to survive a "red line" test, whereby he will be asked continually which policies he would dump if he ended up in a coalition again. It all comes down to trust in the end after all. Which means, though there will be MPs with a strong personal following, there won't be all that many who can feel anything like 'safe' if things keep going as they have been.0 -
Mr. L, in Clegg's defence the very nature of coalition is that manifesto pledges cease being solemn promises and become instead optional. That's one of the main reasons I'm against them.0
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Arses? On PB.com? I refuse to believe it.Theuniondivvie said:Hill's saying referendum could be a photo finish (ignoring the various arses on here obviously):
'“Although the odds make ‘no’ a relatively warm favorite, they have changed quite significantly in recent months,” William Hill spokesman Graeme Sharpe said in an e-mail. “It would be no surprise to see them coming together even more before the day of the vote. It could yet be a photo finish.”
...William Hill said two customers staked 5,000 pounds on Scots voting for independence, while one man in his late 50s in Glasgow made three bets totaling 200,000 pounds on a “no” vote. He stands to make a profit of 36,666 pounds if polls are right and the majority opts to keep the status quo, the bookmaker said.
“We have never taken a bigger bet than this on any political subject,” Sharpe said.'
http://tinyurl.com/q93ubxd
Surprised that that's their biggest political bet (though it is a biggie).0 -
Clegg has been an unmitigated disaster for the Libs, electorally. When to pull the plug?0
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Hopefully not for a very long time.BobaFett said:Clegg has been an unmitigated disaster for the Libs, electorally. When to pull the plug?
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Why single out FPTP? When voting under *any* system the best outcome you can possibly hope for is that the least crap candidate wins.Stuart_Dickson said:
So, the least crap candidate wins? FPTP is wonderful isn't it.Danny565 said:
Imo, that's looking good for a UKIP gain because they could only need a very low share of the vote to take it, possibly only 30% or so. The Tories operated at maximum capacity in Cornwall in 2010 and I doubt "posh boys showering goodies on fellow rich people" will really go down well there, so they'll probably suffer a big drop. The Lib Dems are holding up relatively well in the rural parts of the southwest, but "relatively well" for their abysmal standards still probably means a drop of about 8%. And Labour did decently in the locals in that constituency last year and might eat up some votes, all of which could drag the winning post back quite far.Stuart_Dickson said:Camborne & Redruth (Con maj = 66) is looking like a bit of a nail biter:
Con 8/15 (PP)
LD 5/2
UKIP 10/1 (Lad)
Lab 20/1 (Lad)
Usually that doesn't happen.
...although with the demise of the yellows the situation is improving slightly.
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I think the calculus is the same as during the Brown years. That while the leader is unpopular, the instability involved in ditching him so close to an election would be even more unpopular.Stuart_Dickson said:
Hopefully not for a very long time.BobaFett said:Clegg has been an unmitigated disaster for the Libs, electorally. When to pull the plug?
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The magic of Fred and Ginger;
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/4/12/1397320687525/Alex-Salmond-Nicola-Sturg-013.jpg0 -
IndyRef - best prices
Yes 3/10 (Betdaq)
No 3/1 (Lad, Betway)0 -
Let's hope that that is the logic poisoning Lib Dem minds.Quincel said:
I think the calculus is the same as during the Brown years. That while the leader is unpopular, the instability involved in ditching him so close to an election would be even more unpopular.Stuart_Dickson said:
Hopefully not for a very long time.BobaFett said:Clegg has been an unmitigated disaster for the Libs, electorally. When to pull the plug?
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A lot of people would say a system where the least crap candidate wins is a pretty good system.Stuart_Dickson said:
So, the least crap candidate wins? FPTP is wonderful isn't it.Danny565 said:
Imo, that's looking good for a UKIP gain because they could only need a very low share of the vote to take it, possibly only 30% or so. The Tories operated at maximum capacity in Cornwall in 2010 and I doubt "posh boys showering goodies on fellow rich people" will really go down well there, so they'll probably suffer a big drop. The Lib Dems are holding up relatively well in the rural parts of the southwest, but "relatively well" for their abysmal standards still probably means a drop of about 8%. And Labour did decently in the locals in that constituency last year and might eat up some votes, all of which could drag the winning post back quite far.Stuart_Dickson said:Camborne & Redruth (Con maj = 66) is looking like a bit of a nail biter:
Con 8/15 (PP)
LD 5/2
UKIP 10/1 (Lad)
Lab 20/1 (Lad)0 -
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The Scotsman - Brian Wilson: Why Quebec finally saw the light
"The Canadian province’s decision not to hold another referendum has profound lessons for Scotland, says Brian Wilson
In 1995, the people of Quebec voted by less than one per cent to avoid secession from Canada. Last week, they voted overwhelmingly not to go through the whole rigmarole again by inflicting a crushing defeat on the separatist party which was proposing another referendum.
The analogy with our own situation is highly relevant. For supporters of independence, their perennial, unspoken motto is that they only have to win once. There is no such thing as “giving it a shot”, on the basis of sale and return.
There would be no opportunity to think again, as the Quebecois have clearly done. If that one per cent had tipped the other way, the huge majority against independence which now exists would be wasting their time saying so. They would just have been left to count the cost or ship out."0 -
MonikerDiCanio said:
The magic of Fred and Ginger;
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/4/12/1397320687525/Alex-Salmond-Nicola-Sturg-013.jpg
Aw, Scotland's most popular politician with the most popular leader of a UK administration at the conference of the UK's most popular governing party. Marvellous, ain't it?
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ComRes: Cameron showed "serious lack of leadership over his handling of Maria Miller’s expenses"
Agree 62%
Disagree 15%
What a surprise. If only the PB Cameroons could have spotted it. No chance of that of course.0 -
The Sunday Times have done their usual trick, with a partial discussion of the YouGov.
1) Labour have a six point lead (no actual individual vote shares)
2) UKIP are on 14%
3) Dave's leader rating has fallen 6 points from last week, on minus 16 this week, Ed is on minus 36 up 1 from last week.0 -
A Jack Vettriano interpreted by Beryl Cook.Theuniondivvie said:MonikerDiCanio said:The magic of Fred and Ginger;
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/4/12/1397320687525/Alex-Salmond-Nicola-Sturg-013.jpg
Aw, Scotland's most popular politician with the most popular leader of a UK administration at the conference of the UK's most popular governing party. Marvellous, ain't it?
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Andy Gilderdale @AndyGilder 9h
IPSA to take a "long, hard" look at Peter Bone's expenses, say sources.0 -
According to that article, the Belgian government have an agreement with the Dutch to house their prisoners in the Netherlands. We should do the same. I have doubt it would be cheaper and more humane that confining them in our overcrowded estate, in the custody of HMPS, G4S, Serco and Sodexo. We should also emulate the Dutch example by abolishing a series of victimless crimes that needlessly increase the prison population.rcs1000 said:0 -
Mail on Sunday running hard on the Tory Sexpenses story.
Shocking gay sex texts of top Tory who bragged of 'cute boys' in the penthouse claimed on expenses
Details of salacious messages sent by Iain Corby were revealed last night
The Tory official exchanged messages with man on Grindr, gay dating app
They refer to 'cute boys', 'orgy', 'gay party', 'hottie MPs' and 'all in one bed'
These are said to be 'on offer' in hotel suite hired for Tory party conference
Messages name two Tory MPs: senior Minister and potential future leader
One of reasons Mr Corby quit as the head of Parliamentary Resources Unit
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2603342/Shocking-gay-sex-texts-Tory-bragged-cute-boys-penthouse-claimed-expenses.html0 -
As Sir Robert Mark, a former Commissioner of the Police of the Metropolis once said, the sign of a good police force is that catches more criminals than it employs. The police, which contrary to Peel's intentions have become an increasingly centralised continental-style standing army, still struggle to pass that litmus test.fitalass said:0 -
Bringing back the death penalty would deter a few potential criminals and prevent some repeat offending too.Life_ina_market_town said:
According to that article, the Belgian government have an agreement with the Dutch to house their prisoners in the Netherlands. We should do the same. I have doubt it would be cheaper and more humane that confining them in our overcrowded estate, in the custody of HMPS, G4S, Serco and Sodexo. We should also emulate the Dutch example by abolishing a series of victimless crimes that needlessly increase the prison population.rcs1000 said:
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YouGov average Lab lead for this week = 4.4.
Last 6 weeks (oldest first):
6.4
5.0
4.6
3.0
4.8
4.4
4.4 is the 2nd lowest Lab lead of the year - the lowest was the 3.0 two weeks ago.
So by no means a disastrous week for Con - in spite of Miller.0 -
The public mood was stirred up by outfits like The Daily Bullygraph (aka ukipgraph and nimbygraph) .peter_from_putney said:The LibDems seem to be getting most of the flak on PB.com this evening but in fact both polls are really bad news for the Tories - just when swingback is supposed to be taking effect they are going backwards.
Not that surprising I suppose considering Dave's hopeless, bungling handling of the Maria Miller saga over the past 2 weeks during which time he totally failed to understand the public mood.
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YouGov and Opinium are also leftie pollsters Stuart - haven't you heard?Stuart_Dickson said:
Yawn. Note to Lib Dem twits: be careful about defaming BPC pollsters.perdix said:Poll for ComRes Mirror/Indy . A poll for lefties with some push questions.
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Ah, so that's why they want to withdraw housing and unemployment benefits from the under 25s.Mick_Pork said:
Mail on Sunday running hard on the Tory Sexpenses story.
Shocking gay sex texts of top Tory who bragged of 'cute boys' in the penthouse claimed on expenses
Details of salacious messages sent by Iain Corby were revealed last night
The Tory official exchanged messages with man on Grindr, gay dating app
They refer to 'cute boys', 'orgy', 'gay party', 'hottie MPs' and 'all in one bed'
These are said to be 'on offer' in hotel suite hired for Tory party conference
Messages name two Tory MPs: senior Minister and potential future leader
One of reasons Mr Corby quit as the head of Parliamentary Resources Unit
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2603342/Shocking-gay-sex-texts-Tory-bragged-cute-boys-penthouse-claimed-expenses.html0 -
*chortle*old_labour said:Ah, so that's why they want to withdraw housing and unemployment benefits from the under 25s.
Mick_Pork said:Mail on Sunday running hard on the Tory Sexpenses story.
Shocking gay sex texts of top Tory who bragged of 'cute boys' in the penthouse claimed on expenses
Details of salacious messages sent by Iain Corby were revealed last night
The Tory official exchanged messages with man on Grindr, gay dating app
They refer to 'cute boys', 'orgy', 'gay party', 'hottie MPs' and 'all in one bed'
These are said to be 'on offer' in hotel suite hired for Tory party conference
Messages name two Tory MPs: senior Minister and potential future leader
One of reasons Mr Corby quit as the head of Parliamentary Resources Unit
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2603342/Shocking-gay-sex-texts-Tory-bragged-cute-boys-penthouse-claimed-expenses.html
To be fair I should have said Dacre going hard on the tory gay sexpenses scandal. Much more apt. 0 -
Interesting that the UKPR calculator puts the LDs on 23 seats despite being on 7%. That's the same number of seats they won in 1983 with 26%.0
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Why this weekly fiasco with YouGov, where we either have to go to the West End just to buy a copy, magnify the front page tweet 400% or work it out via algebra based on a range of clues?
Tweeting the results at 10pm could be an idea.0 -
More than a whiff of nasty homophobia about the Mail story0
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You have to be a serial killer to get locked up in Holland.rcs1000 said:0 -
For the avoidance of doubt, the following isn't permissible
1) Accusing pollsters of push polling is not acceptable.
2) Calling other posters twits isn't acceptable.
As the moderators aren't on 24/7 - Any posters who repeatedly violate this rule )(or any other rules) will find their posts automatically go into the pending folder, when they will be released by the moderating team when we check the pending folder.0 -
Radio 2 are playing Girl Crazy by Hot Chocolate from 1982.0
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With the ComRes poll, 25% are supporting UKIP, Greens or BNP: 20% / 4% / 1%.
The figure was 6% at GE2010.0 -
The Indy ran with it yesterday. MoS seem to have far more detail and are frontpaging it.BobaFett said:More than a whiff of nasty homophobia about the Mail story
Which tends to suggest that somebody got wind of what the MoS were doing and threw some details to the Indy as a spoiler and to mitigate it. Pretty standard practice for Fleet Street.
Harry Smith @stvharry 59m
More horror stories from Sexminster in the Mail on Sunday pic.twitter.com/IBdkOWbAZS
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While Kate might be having another baby, Dave is having kittens.0
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Have the bookies stopped taking bets as to who will be next out of the coalition cabinet? I can't see it on oddschecker.0
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??old_labour said:
While Kate might be having another baby, Dave is having kittens.
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Interesting Guardian article,
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/12/capitalism-isnt-working-thomas-piketty
Those of a more rightwing disposition should take the normal precautions, and cover eyes and ears.0 -
Tonight's full YouGov is
Con 32, Lab 38, UKIP 14, LD 80 -
Are MPs more or less likely to abuse expenses now than they were at the time of the 2009 expenses scandal
More likely 15%, Less Likely 32%, No Difference 49%, DK 4%0 -
Another bad Lib Dem poll, the puzzle is why they should suddenly have dropped in the last couple of days.0
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All 3 polls put the Labour lead at 6%, and all of them put the LDs on 7-8%. The main difference is UKIP are lower with YouGov.0
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Strange as it may sound, the fact that Clegg hasn't been appearing on TV might have something to do with it.FrankBooth said:Another bad Lib Dem poll, the puzzle is why they should suddenly have dropped in the last couple of days.
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More madness along the lines of Blanchflower and Hollande as witnessed by the penultimate paragraph:Smarmeron said:Interesting Guardian article,
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/12/capitalism-isnt-working-thomas-piketty
Those of a more rightwing disposition should take the normal precautions, and cover eyes and ears.
The solutions – a top income tax rate of up to 80%, effective inheritance tax, proper property taxes and, because the issue is global, a global wealth tax – are currently inconceivable.
I wonder if anyone at the Guardian has the wit to realise that mass immigration makes the rich richer and the poor poorer.0 -
Comments along these lines may have been made earlier, but, having just checked UK Polling Report, 7% is indeed the lowest the Lib Dems have been in this parliament, having previously hit that nadir several times, most recently 6 months ago.
The last time the Lib Dems registered a score lower than 7% was in March 1990.0 -
nigel4england Exactly, Hollande's 75% tax on corporations paying more than a million euros a year worked out well didn't it high unemployment and sluggish growth and punishment for the Socialists at the polls. We tried exactly the same in 1979 with income tax at the top rate of around 90% and the wealthy moved abroad, just as the rich in France have moved to London0
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You need to look harder.Danny565 said:Comments along these lines may have been made earlier, but, having just checked UK Polling Report, 7% is indeed the lowest the Lib Dems have been in this parliament, having previously hit that nadir several times, most recently 6 months ago.
The last time the Lib Dems registered a score lower than 7% was in March 1990.
They've polled 6% in this parliament.
With opinium at the end of May 2013
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You are indeed correct!TheScreamingEagles said:
You need to look harder.Danny565 said:Comments along these lines may have been made earlier, but, having just checked UK Polling Report, 7% is indeed the lowest the Lib Dems have been in this parliament, having previously hit that nadir several times, most recently 6 months ago.
The last time the Lib Dems registered a score lower than 7% was in March 1990.
They've polled 6% in this parliament.
With opinium at the end of May 2013
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Just think 4 years ago the Lib Dems were polling 34% and were first in the polls, ahead of both the Tories and Labour.Danny565 said:
You are indeed correct!TheScreamingEagles said:
You need to look harder.Danny565 said:Comments along these lines may have been made earlier, but, having just checked UK Polling Report, 7% is indeed the lowest the Lib Dems have been in this parliament, having previously hit that nadir several times, most recently 6 months ago.
The last time the Lib Dems registered a score lower than 7% was in March 1990.
They've polled 6% in this parliament.
With opinium at the end of May 2013
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The LDs on 7% represents a drop since GE2010 of 16.6 percentage points.
The LD share was below 16.6% in 191 constituencies in 2010.0 -
They also polled 6% with Opinium on 12th July 2013.Danny565 said:
You are indeed correct!TheScreamingEagles said:
You need to look harder.Danny565 said:Comments along these lines may have been made earlier, but, having just checked UK Polling Report, 7% is indeed the lowest the Lib Dems have been in this parliament, having previously hit that nadir several times, most recently 6 months ago.
The last time the Lib Dems registered a score lower than 7% was in March 1990.
They've polled 6% in this parliament.
With opinium at the end of May 20130 -
"Downing Street is braced for a “disastrous” European election in the wake of the Maria Miller expenses scandal as a new summary of the opinion polls suggest the Tories will fall to third place.
Conservative sources privately concede that David Cameron has all but given up hope of beating the UK Independence Party when voters go to the polls next month to elect Members of the European Parliament."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10762889/Tories-face-coming-third-behind-Ukip-in-Euro-poll.html0 -
First Class expectations management.......AndyJS said:"Downing Street is braced for a “disastrous” European election in the wake of the Maria Miller expenses scandal as a new summary of the opinion polls suggest the Tories will fall to third place.
Conservative sources privately concede that David Cameron has all but given up hope of beating the UK Independence Party when voters go to the polls next month to elect Members of the European Parliament."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10762889/Tories-face-coming-third-behind-Ukip-in-Euro-poll.html
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Is everyone having a Sunday morning lie-in?
Looks like it may be hotting up in the Ukraine:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-270080260 -
The mirror image of that is that the 20% for UKIP is their best score with any pollster since they hit that mark on 12 July last year with Survation. They've not been higher since a 22% on 3 July, also with Survation. 20% is, however, their highest ever level with ComRes, just surpassing the 19% they last achieved on 16 January this year.AndyJS said:
They also polled 6% with Opinium on 12th July 2013.Danny565 said:
You are indeed correct!TheScreamingEagles said:
You need to look harder.Danny565 said:Comments along these lines may have been made earlier, but, having just checked UK Polling Report, 7% is indeed the lowest the Lib Dems have been in this parliament, having previously hit that nadir several times, most recently 6 months ago.
The last time the Lib Dems registered a score lower than 7% was in March 1990.
They've polled 6% in this parliament.
With opinium at the end of May 20130 -
From that telegraph article: "Tory strategists regard Ukip as the biggest hurdle to winning a Commons majority in 2015 and are attempting to win back voters with a series of hardline policies on EU reform and immigration."
Tory strategists can put forward whatever policies they like. With their record since 2010, I and many others won't be voting for them in 2015 whatever false promises they make. Sorry Dave, we don't believe anything your party says anymore.
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Tuition fees. Whilst punters are quite happy to equate "politician" with "liar", for Clegg there is a whole new vault of hell. Never before has a party leader been caught out in such a barefaced lie -tuition fees were the keystone of the LibDems campaign with posed pledge card photos and everything. So the party reversing position to vote for a big increase plus press reports providing written proof that Clegg had no intention to keep the pledge as his candidates were forced to pose for the cameras turned him into the biggest liar in political history.TheScreamingEagles said:
Just think 4 years ago the Lib Dems were polling 34% and were first in the polls, ahead of both the Tories and Labour.
" I'm sorry" he said, not as sorry as his former voters say they are.
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A UKIP councillor quits after being convicted of benefits fraud; claims the party let him down:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-26990627
and more at:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/04/10/peter-lagoda-ukip-racist-remarks_n_5126595.html?utm_hp_ref=uk
Rather ludicrously, he blames UKIP for not backing him up.0 -
An interesting what-if.
If Tories had won a small majority and the economy was the same as it is now, would the LDs, by retaining the Lab-Lib switchers, have given the Tories a lead in the polling, even with a Ukip surge?0 -
Hmm ... I think I mean Lib to Lab switchers.0
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The entire political scene might be different. For instance, would Ed still have won over his brother? With the Lib Dems possibly positioned marginally further to the left outside coalition, would Labour have chosen the more centrist brother?CD13 said:An interesting what-if.
If Tories had won a small majority and the economy was the same as it is now, would the LDs, by retaining the Lab-Lib switchers, have given the Tories a lead in the polling, even with a Ukip surge?
I actually think this coalition has worked quite well, with few of the problems I and others forecast. But a pure Conservative government would have looked very different. For one thing, we would not have had the current legislative slowdown. As someone who quite likes governments passing fewer rather than more laws, this is a good thing.
With a weak Conservative majority government, a Labour party marginally nearer the centre (and with a much more capable leader), the Lib Dems would have been able to soak up many protest votes.
Then there are the things, such as boundary reforms, which probably would have been passed.0 -
He also stated after the election that before the election he had changed his mind about the LD approach to deficit reduction and economic policy he espoused during the election campaign even though he continued to advocate it. Throw in the Rose Garden and the overfond embrace of the Tories the LDs pursued before belatedly opting for differentiation, and really Clegg has no-one to blame but himself. Basically, he's nowhere near good enough.RochdalePioneers said:
Tuition fees. Whilst punters are quite happy to equate "politician" with "liar", for Clegg there is a whole new vault of hell. Never before has a party leader been caught out in such a barefaced lie -tuition fees were the keystone of the LibDems campaign with posed pledge card photos and everything. So the party reversing position to vote for a big increase plus press reports providing written proof that Clegg had no intention to keep the pledge as his candidates were forced to pose for the cameras turned him into the biggest liar in political history.TheScreamingEagles said:
Just think 4 years ago the Lib Dems were polling 34% and were first in the polls, ahead of both the Tories and Labour.
" I'm sorry" he said, not as sorry as his former voters say they are.
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Typical woolly journalism. There's a load of waffle, but I'd like to be told what sort of benefit fraud he committed, and how much he took the taxpayer for. We aren't even told what crime he was found guilty of.JosiasJessop said:A UKIP councillor quits after being convicted of benefits fraud; claims the party let him down:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-26990627
and more at:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/04/10/peter-lagoda-ukip-racist-remarks_n_5126595.html?utm_hp_ref=uk
Rather ludicrously, he blames UKIP for not backing him up.
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For reference, if the polling figures were translated under a reasonably pure PR system into MPs, the result would be something like:SouthamObserver said:Maybe the Tories should propose PR now and get a Parliamentary vote organised. That way they'd probably get a coalition with UKIP after the next GE.
Lab: 230
Con: 190
UKIP: 125
LD: 45
NI & Others: 60
In reality, Others would probably do even better under PR as their vote became viable.
If the PR system used relatively small constituencies - e.g. STV - the likelihood is that the Lib Dems would suffer even further as they missed out on the threshold in the majority of constituencies, and failed to balance that with second MPs in areas of moderate strength.0 -
This story in the Cambridge News has more details:JohnLilburne said:
Typical woolly journalism. There's a load of waffle, but I'd like to be told what sort of benefit fraud he committed, and how much he took the taxpayer for. We aren't even told what crime he was found guilty of.JosiasJessop said:A UKIP councillor quits after being convicted of benefits fraud; claims the party let him down:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-26990627
and more at:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/04/10/peter-lagoda-ukip-racist-remarks_n_5126595.html?utm_hp_ref=uk
Rather ludicrously, he blames UKIP for not backing him up.
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/Cambridgeshire-county-councillor-Peter-Lagoda-quits-UKIP-after-benefit-fraud-conviction-20140411142310.htmIt had been alleged the councillor and his wife falsely claimed £11,565 in income support, £2,346 in council tax and £10,949 in housing benefit.
Looks like it's the old 'changed circumstances' problem.
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And as I go to the front page of the Cambridge News, I find the following story:
A UKIP councillor accused of branding children in care “takers” from society said he was “deeply sorry” after an investigation found him guilty of breaching the members’ code of conduct.
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/Cambridgeshire-county-councillor-Gordon-Gillick-deeply-sorry-as-probe-into-claim-he-called-children-in-care-takers-from-society-finds-him-guilty-of-breaching-code-of-conduct-20140412073000.htm0 -
In Mid Beds it is quite safe to vote kipper, being such safe Tory seats.
Blaming Cameron for going into coalition is folly though. In 2010 that was the only tenable government. The alternative would have been an unstable minority government and swift second election, against a Brown free Labour party, perhaps with different leader.
Cameron won 97 seats. Those who despise his failure to win a majority should remember how poorly the more right wing leaders in 2001 and 2005 fared. Without Cameron we would probably had a further term of Brown.
The FPTP process produced a Con-LD coalition that broadly represented what the country wanted: Some economic and fiscal sanity but combined with a socially liberal outlook.
Kippers are like the Tea Party in the states, pursuing an uncompromising agenda that puts their opponents in a much stronger position. There they kept Obama in power, here it will be to put the two Eds at the controls.Paul_Mid_Beds said:From that telegraph article: "Tory strategists regard Ukip as the biggest hurdle to winning a Commons majority in 2015 and are attempting to win back voters with a series of hardline policies on EU reform and immigration."
Tory strategists can put forward whatever policies they like. With their record since 2010, I and many others won't be voting for them in 2015 whatever false promises they make. Sorry Dave, we don't believe anything your party says anymore.0 -
And therein lies the Tories problem.Paul_Mid_Beds said:From that telegraph article: "Tory strategists regard Ukip as the biggest hurdle to winning a Commons majority in 2015 and are attempting to win back voters with a series of hardline policies on EU reform and immigration."
Tory strategists can put forward whatever policies they like. With their record since 2010, I and many others won't be voting for them in 2015 whatever false promises they make. Sorry Dave, we don't believe anything your party says anymore.
As a kipper I am happy to admit that Osborne has done a fantastic job with the economy, we now have growth but without the mass unemployment that was predicted, and Gove is also doing a good job breaking up the teachers unions and their disgusting stranglehold of our kids education.
However I want out of the EU and no amount of spinning will convince me that anything Dave says on the matter has any semblance of the truth attached to it.0 -
ComRes/IoS S Mirror: My family is better off now than at the GE2010
Agree 20%
Disagree 59%
Can't remember back that far 21%
It's the government's fault that I am not better off than I am 100%0 -
The Conservative's best chance of winning the next election is to help the Lib Dems take back their 2010 supporters who have switched to Labour.
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