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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs slump to just 7 percent in the first two of tonight

SystemSystem Posts: 11,701
edited April 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs slump to just 7 percent in the first two of tonight’s poll while UKIP soar

ComRes finds that 52% of #GE2010 LD voters have UNFAVOURABLE view of Clegg. This could be serious for DPM

Read the full story here


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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,412
    Broken, sleazy Coalition on the slide?
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    - "The LDs slump to just 7 percent in the first two of tonight’s poll while UKIP soar"

    Oh, how we will laugh. Where is Walter the Softy?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    And the other 48% have never heard of him.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,566
    I'm just glad the Tories aren't peaking too soon.

    If Farage is in the debates next year, I forecast a Faragasm that will make Cleggasm look like premature ejaculation.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Major error for Clegg to go head to head with Farage in those debates on the EU, but he probable did both Cameron and Miliband a huge favour by doing it now and not nearer the GE.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Millergate. Politician fatigue.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    It can't be long until Nicola Sturgeon invites Nick Clegg for a face to face debate.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,966
    Labour landslide territory. Can't see this being close to the GE result, but if it is that's the end of FPTP.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    fitalass said:

    Major error for Clegg to go head to head with Farage in those debates on the EU, but he probable did both Cameron and Miliband a huge favour by doing it now and not nearer the GE.

    Never thought I'd ever say this, but... gulp... I agree with Fitalass.

    I was wrong about the debates. I thought that it was Farage that had made the error of giving Clegg a straw to clutch. But somehow Clegg managed to fluff his chance. What a total chump.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,987
    Is that Comres poll correct ? Lib Dems 20 and UKIP on 7 up 4 o_O ?!

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,566
    It will be interesting to see what the ICM shows on Monday.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm just glad the Tories aren't peaking too soon.

    If Farage is in the debates next year, I forecast a Faragasm that will make Cleggasm look like premature ejaculation.

    The Cleggasm was a premature release for the sandal-wearers. They lost MPs.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    FFS!!!

    Sky News starting a one hour special on the Oscar Pistorius trial.
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It will be interesting to see what the ICM shows on Monday.

    Bugger all these silly polls. I want to see real votes being cast in real ballot boxes and real Lib Dem MEPs being given the real boot. We've had plenty of appetisers. I want a main course.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,566
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm just glad the Tories aren't peaking too soon.

    If Farage is in the debates next year, I forecast a Faragasm that will make Cleggasm look like premature ejaculation.

    The Cleggasm was a premature release for the sandal-wearers. They lost MPs.
    Their share of the vote went up though.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    The ComRes graph shows the Lib Dems on 20% and Ukip on 7%. People have ended up in hospital for less.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,966
    Maybe the Tories should propose PR now and get a Parliamentary vote organised. That way they'd probably get a coalition with UKIP after the next GE.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    FPT .....

    The missing party leader who lost his seat at a general election was ....

    Drum roll ....

    Ernest Jones ....

    He was leader of the Liberal Nationals from 1940-45 and lost his Leith seat in the Labour landslide of 1945.

    Jones has been in successive governments from 1931 until 1945. He was Minister of Mines from 32 in MacDonald's administration before entering the cabinet as Minister of Labour under both Baldwin and Chamberlain.

    From 1940 Churchill moved him successively from SoS for Scotland to Health to the Duchy of Lancaster. Finally he was moved out of the cabinet to Minister of Aircraft Production in Churchill's short lived May-July 45 government.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm just glad the Tories aren't peaking too soon.

    If Farage is in the debates next year, I forecast a Faragasm that will make Cleggasm look like premature ejaculation.

    The Cleggasm was a premature release for the sandal-wearers. They lost MPs.
    Their share of the vote went up though.
    Exactly. The last thing the Lib Dems need is tactical unwind.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,566
    old_labour said:

    FFS!!!

    Sky News starting a one hour special on the Oscar Pistorius trial.

    I have the Sky News app on my phone and tablet.

    They send about a hundred push notifications a week about the Pistorius trial, it really getting on my nerves.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,891
    Evening all :)

    For all the talk of swing back and crossover, we have two polls tonight taking the Coalition parties back to the darkest days of summer 2012. The two parties polled 59% in 2010 - tonight, these polls now show 36-37% so that's a huge chunk of support gone.

    UKIP and of course Labour the chief beneficiaries though Baxter still offers the LDs 20 or so seats on these seats while UKIP scores zero. Labour sweeps through the marginals while the Tories pick up LD seats but lose far more to Labour.

    It does look on these numbers that UKIP will do very well in the European elections and Labour will do very well in the local elections.

    This time next year of course it may all look very different - if not, Ed Miliband will be on the cusp of becoming Prime Minister which will confound those on here who have asserted ad infinitum that such a thing will never happen.

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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    SouthamObserver said:

    Maybe the Tories should propose PR now and get a Parliamentary vote organised. That way they'd probably get a coalition with UKIP after the next GE.

    But would the Lib Dems vote for PR now? It would be political suicide. FPTP is the only thing giving them any hope.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SouthamObserver said:

    Labour landslide territory. Can't see this being close to the GE result, but if it is that's the end of FPTP.

    If Labour win a majority next year it will be with about 35% IMO.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Maybe the Tories should propose PR now and get a Parliamentary vote organised. That way they'd probably get a coalition with UKIP after the next GE.

    But would the Lib Dems vote for PR now? It would be political suicide. FPTP is the only thing giving them any hope.
    That's not correct. With STV the LDs would be pretty much guaranteed about 75 seats in Parliament if you assume they'd poll at least 12%.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Well I did present a minority opinion after the Clegg/Farage debates that Clegg may drive down the LD voting support because he will have clarified to those aware of the debates that his party is pro-EC. In a previous survey reported on here, it was reported that 40% of LD voters were actually eurosceptic....
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,891
    AndyJS said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Labour landslide territory. Can't see this being close to the GE result, but if it is that's the end of FPTP.

    If Labour win a majority next year it will be with about 35% IMO.
    It didn't stop them in 2005 - the share of the vote may or may not affect the quality of the mandate but not the reality.

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It will be interesting to see what the ICM shows on Monday.

    Bugger all these silly polls. I want to see real votes being cast in real ballot boxes and real Lib Dem MEPs being given the real boot. We've had plenty of appetisers. I want a main course.
    You'll have to be patient and wait until 18 September when the main course of spit roasted Eck is served to Scottish voters .... and as for the vegetables - the rest of the SNP notables will be done to perfection in the pan juices

    Luvely jubbly

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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,891
    For me, the significant finding is only 20% saying they are better off compared with 2010 - that shows how much George Osborne, Avery and the yellow boxes still have to do to convince the bulk of the electorate.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    ComRes

    Ho ho. Where is Walter? Scottish Lib Dems on... wait for it... 4%.

    Down 15 points from 2010.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    Not many polls have given UKIP better numbers than this one.

    A few examples are Survation in May 2013: Lab 35%, Con 24%, UKIP 22%, LD 11%.

    Opinium, May 2013: Lab 37%, Con 26%, UKIP 21%, LD 6%.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,966
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Maybe the Tories should propose PR now and get a Parliamentary vote organised. That way they'd probably get a coalition with UKIP after the next GE.

    But would the Lib Dems vote for PR now? It would be political suicide. FPTP is the only thing giving them any hope.

    If they didn't it would make them entirely disreputable and would probably kill them as a party permanently. So don't rule it out!!

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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Really, after the AV Referendum result saw voters emphatically saying no to a change in the voting system in this Parliament? Why on earth would the Conservatives want to gift UKIP any Westminster life line when their current Leader doesn't even a have a seat in Westminster?
    SouthamObserver said:

    Maybe the Tories should propose PR now and get a Parliamentary vote organised. That way they'd probably get a coalition with UKIP after the next GE.

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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,966
    If these polls are repeated in 2015 we are looking at the lowest Labour/LD combined share in the next GE since God knows when, a major swing to the right among the electorate and a Labour government with a very large majority. God love FPTP in a four party system!!
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    stodge said:

    For me, the significant finding is only 20% saying they are better off compared with 2010 - that shows how much George Osborne, Avery and the yellow boxes still have to do to convince the bulk of the electorate.

    The Lib-Con coalition has been one of the poorest governments of the past 100 years. The only way for the guilty parties to begin to recover is for them to acknowledge the horrific error that was The Rose Garden.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/cameronclegg-rose-garden-lovein-was-sickening-says-lib-dem-adviser-julia-goldsworthy-9194832.html
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    I don't think UKIP would win any seats with 15% of the vote, but with 20% they'd probably win Boston, Thanet South, Folkestone, Eastleigh, Torbay, Devon North, Devon West, Great Yarmouth, Camborne, Forest of Dean, Worthing East.

    http://www.libdemvoice.org/where-ukip-won-or-almost-won-on-2nd-may-2013-34503.html
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    This Government steered us through the end of the recession and onto economic recovery while employment increased and interest rates remained low. I think that is going to do more to convince the electorate to stick with Cameron and Osborne come the next GE. Interestingly, Cameron's own polling figures in the Comres internals are looking quite robust despite the Conservative dip in the poll.
    stodge said:

    For me, the significant finding is only 20% saying they are better off compared with 2010 - that shows how much George Osborne, Avery and the yellow boxes still have to do to convince the bulk of the electorate.

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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    The standard of murder trials has declined in the past 100 years.
    http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/FWWcaillauxH.htm
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    old_labour said:

    FFS!!!

    Sky News starting a one hour special on the Oscar Pistorius trial.

    I have the Sky News app on my phone and tablet.

    They send about a hundred push notifications a week about the Pistorius trial, it really getting on my nerves.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    fitalass said:

    Major error for Clegg to go head to head with Farage in those debates on the EU, but he probable did both Cameron and Miliband a huge favour by doing it now and not nearer the GE.

    Never thought I'd ever say this, but... gulp... I agree with Fitalass.
    I was wrong about the debates. I thought that it was Farage that had made the error of giving Clegg a straw to clutch. But somehow Clegg managed to fluff his chance. What a total chump.
    To paraphrase the final Q&A.
    Q: Mr Clegg how do you see the European Community in 10 years time?
    A: Much the same as it is....

    That could be the foot in mouth moment of the debate.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    SouthamObserver said:

    If these polls are repeated in 2015 we are looking at the lowest Labour/LD combined share in the next GE since God knows when, a major swing to the right among the electorate and a Labour government with a very large majority. God love FPTP in a four party system!!

    FPTP in a four party system served the SNP very, very well. It'll also serve English Labour well. One might have thought that the brighter Tories would have spotted the problem.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News's obsession with the Pistorius trial is very depressing, but even more so is the fact that they must be doing it because the demand is there from viewers.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.
    For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,966
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    If these polls are repeated in 2015 we are looking at the lowest Labour/LD combined share in the next GE since God knows when, a major swing to the right among the electorate and a Labour government with a very large majority. God love FPTP in a four party system!!

    FPTP in a four party system served the SNP very, very well. It'll also serve English Labour well. One might have thought that the brighter Tories would have spotted the problem.

    The Tories do very badly under Westminster FPTP in Scotland, Labour does brilliantly. Does the SNP do that well? The real losers, of course, are disenfranchised voters. No wonder turnouts are so low these days.

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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    SouthamObserver said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    If these polls are repeated in 2015 we are looking at the lowest Labour/LD combined share in the next GE since God knows when, a major swing to the right among the electorate and a Labour government with a very large majority. God love FPTP in a four party system!!

    FPTP in a four party system served the SNP very, very well. It'll also serve English Labour well. One might have thought that the brighter Tories would have spotted the problem.

    The Tories do very badly under Westminster FPTP in Scotland, Labour does brilliantly. Does the SNP do that well? The real losers, of course, are disenfranchised voters. No wonder turnouts are so low these days.

    Err... you are aware of what is about to happen on 18 September aren't you?
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I turn off push notifications for most news sites.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    old_labour said:

    FFS!!!

    Sky News starting a one hour special on the Oscar Pistorius trial.

    I have the Sky News app on my phone and tablet.

    They send about a hundred push notifications a week about the Pistorius trial, it really getting on my nerves.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AndyJS said:

    I don't think UKIP would win any seats with 15% of the vote, but with 20% they'd probably win Boston, Thanet South, Folkestone, Eastleigh, Torbay, Devon North, Devon West, Great Yarmouth, Camborne, Forest of Dean, Worthing East.

    http://www.libdemvoice.org/where-ukip-won-or-almost-won-on-2nd-may-2013-34503.html

    I expect Boston will see 2 rival UKIP candidates at the 2015 GE . Probably Victoria Ayling for the official UKIP and one of the 6 or 7 rebel councillors standing against under a different but similar name . If so UKIP would not win .
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    SouthamObserver said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Maybe the Tories should propose PR now and get a Parliamentary vote organised. That way they'd probably get a coalition with UKIP after the next GE.

    But would the Lib Dems vote for PR now? It would be political suicide. FPTP is the only thing giving them any hope.

    If they didn't it would make them entirely disreputable and would probably kill them as a party permanently. So don't rule it out!!

    The words "tuition fees" will be inscribed on their tombstone.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    old_labour said:

    The standard of murder trials has declined in the past 100 years.
    http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/FWWcaillauxH.htm

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    old_labour said:

    FFS!!!

    Sky News starting a one hour special on the Oscar Pistorius trial.

    I have the Sky News app on my phone and tablet.

    They send about a hundred push notifications a week about the Pistorius trial, it really getting on my nerves.
    That's a corker, thanks.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BTW .... Very best wishes to those taking part in tomorrows London Marathon.

    I've sponsored five participants all running for wonderful causes and never will I be more pleased to hand over the cash.

    Good luck all.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    If these polls are repeated in 2015 we are looking at the lowest Labour/LD combined share in the next GE since God knows when, a major swing to the right among the electorate and a Labour government with a very large majority. God love FPTP in a four party system!!

    FPTP in a four party system served the SNP very, very well. It'll also serve English Labour well. One might have thought that the brighter Tories would have spotted the problem.

    The Tories do very badly under Westminster FPTP in Scotland, Labour does brilliantly. Does the SNP do that well? The real losers, of course, are disenfranchised voters. No wonder turnouts are so low these days.

    Err... you are aware of what is about to happen on 18 September aren't you?
    Yep Yes is going to lose heavily .
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    JackW said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It will be interesting to see what the ICM shows on Monday.

    Bugger all these silly polls. I want to see real votes being cast in real ballot boxes and real Lib Dem MEPs being given the real boot. We've had plenty of appetisers. I want a main course.
    You'll have to be patient and wait until 18 September when the main course of spit roasted Eck is served to Scottish voters .... and as for the vegetables - the rest of the SNP notables will be done to perfection in the pan juices

    Luvely jubbly

    At some point you lot are going to realise that this is nothing to do with the SNP. But hopefully not until after 18 September.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Clegg was stupid to give Farage the oxygen of publicity for the last month on the back of that gross tactical error, and the Libdems are paying for it now.
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Well I did present a minority opinion after the Clegg/Farage debates that Clegg may drive down the LD voting support because he will have clarified to those aware of the debates that his party is pro-EC. In a previous survey reported on here, it was reported that 40% of LD voters were actually eurosceptic....

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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.
    For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
    The actual number isn't that important. What's important is that they are registering at historic lows: if there was an election on 10th April, it would have been a worst case scenario result.
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MarkSenior said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    If these polls are repeated in 2015 we are looking at the lowest Labour/LD combined share in the next GE since God knows when, a major swing to the right among the electorate and a Labour government with a very large majority. God love FPTP in a four party system!!

    FPTP in a four party system served the SNP very, very well. It'll also serve English Labour well. One might have thought that the brighter Tories would have spotted the problem.

    The Tories do very badly under Westminster FPTP in Scotland, Labour does brilliantly. Does the SNP do that well? The real losers, of course, are disenfranchised voters. No wonder turnouts are so low these days.

    Err... you are aware of what is about to happen on 18 September aren't you?
    Yep Yes is going to lose heavily .
    Complacency comes before a fall.

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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    - "The LDs slump to just 7 percent in the first two of tonight’s poll while UKIP soar"

    Oh, how we will laugh. Where is Walter the Softy?

    Clegg is toxic.

    Simple as that.

    Doesn't matter how often some of us have pointed out that obvious fact since it just won't sink in here and it certainly hasn't sunk in among Clegg's ostrich faction of inept spinners.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Danny Alexander has not ruled out increasing them again for English students.
    http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/apr/11/danny-alexander-tuition-fees-may-rise
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Maybe the Tories should propose PR now and get a Parliamentary vote organised. That way they'd probably get a coalition with UKIP after the next GE.

    But would the Lib Dems vote for PR now? It would be political suicide. FPTP is the only thing giving them any hope.

    If they didn't it would make them entirely disreputable and would probably kill them as a party permanently. So don't rule it out!!

    The words "tuition fees" will be inscribed on their tombstone.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.
    For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
    The actual number isn't that important. What's important is that they are registering at historic lows: if there was an election on 10th April, it would have been a worst case scenario result.
    There was an election in Wantage on April 10th , the Lib Dem vote share went up .
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2014
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    JackW said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It will be interesting to see what the ICM shows on Monday.

    Bugger all these silly polls. I want to see real votes being cast in real ballot boxes and real Lib Dem MEPs being given the real boot. We've had plenty of appetisers. I want a main course.
    You'll have to be patient and wait until 18 September when the main course of spit roasted Eck is served to Scottish voters .... and as for the vegetables - the rest of the SNP notables will be done to perfection in the pan juices

    Luvely jubbly

    At some point you lot are going to realise that this is nothing to do with the SNP. But hopefully not until after 18 September.
    That's one of the funniest comments you've ever written .... and there is some pretty strong competition.

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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Mick_Pork said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    - "The LDs slump to just 7 percent in the first two of tonight’s poll while UKIP soar"

    Oh, how we will laugh. Where is Walter the Softy?

    Clegg is toxic.

    Simple as that.

    Doesn't matter how often some of us have pointed out that obvious fact since it just won't sink in here and it certainly hasn't sunk in among Clegg's ostrich faction of inept spinners.
    Good. The longer they resist the inevitable the better.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Lib Dems on 7%? At what point do pollsters start grouping them in with "others"?

    What's ridiculous is that there is clearly scope in a country with the liberal democratic history of the UK for a proper liberal party. But it's clearly only a tenable position if they're actually consistent about the principles of liberalism, rather than sacrificing it all at the altar of the European Union. From huge subsidies to the farming lobby, to decision making being removed from national parliaments, to extraditions to corrupt countries without the normal due process, the whole thing flies in the face of the Whig principles developed over centuries. The Lib Dems need to decide whether they want to continue backing this failed project, or whether they want to survive as a party.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    JackW said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It will be interesting to see what the ICM shows on Monday.

    Bugger all these silly polls. I want to see real votes being cast in real ballot boxes and real Lib Dem MEPs being given the real boot. We've had plenty of appetisers. I want a main course.
    You'll have to be patient and wait until 18 September when the main course of spit roasted Eck is served to Scottish voters .... and as for the vegetables - the rest of the SNP notables will be done to perfection in the pan juices

    Luvely jubbly

    At some point you lot are going to realise that this is nothing to do with the SNP. But hopefully not until after 18 September.
    The combined power of a potty old mans farts and a deluded Clegg spinner really does count for a great deal in the real world, doesn't it?

    *chortle*
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    JackW said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    JackW said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It will be interesting to see what the ICM shows on Monday.

    Bugger all these silly polls. I want to see real votes being cast in real ballot boxes and real Lib Dem MEPs being given the real boot. We've had plenty of appetisers. I want a main course.
    You'll have to be patient and wait until 18 September when the main course of spit roasted Eck is served to Scottish voters .... and as for the vegetables - the rest of the SNP notables will be done to perfection in the pan juices

    Luvely jubbly

    At some point you lot are going to realise that this is nothing to do with the SNP. But hopefully not until after 18 September.
    That's one of the funniest comments you've ever written .... and there some pretty strong competition.

    While you are busy attacking the SNP in a pointless skirmish, the main action is taking place elsewhere.
  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    From what I have read about the approach to the First World War, more people were interested in the trial than the international situation. Scary.
    JosiasJessop said:

    old_labour said:

    The standard of murder trials has declined in the past 100 years.
    http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/FWWcaillauxH.htm

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    old_labour said:

    FFS!!!

    Sky News starting a one hour special on the Oscar Pistorius trial.

    I have the Sky News app on my phone and tablet.

    They send about a hundred push notifications a week about the Pistorius trial, it really getting on my nerves.
    That's a corker, thanks.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.
    For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
    The actual number isn't that important. What's important is that they are registering at historic lows: if there was an election on 10th April, it would have been a worst case scenario result.
    Yet in real elections they don't seem (subjectively, I don't have the figures) to be doing that badly. I daresay someone'll have the figures.

    If my suspicions are right, do we have any historic figures from the last couple of parliaments to show how well on average local by-elections match or mismatch polling?
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Socrates said:

    Lib Dems on 7%? At what point do pollsters start grouping them in with "others"?

    What's ridiculous is that there is clearly scope in a country with the liberal democratic history of the UK for a proper liberal party. But it's clearly only a tenable position if they're actually consistent about the principles of liberalism, rather than sacrificing it all at the altar of the European Union. From huge subsidies to the farming lobby, to decision making being removed from national parliaments, to extraditions to corrupt countries without the normal due process, the whole thing flies in the face of the Whig principles developed over centuries. The Lib Dems need to decide whether they want to continue backing this failed project, or whether they want to survive as a party.

    I am a liberal. I come from a family of liberals. And we come from an extended family of liberals. Who come from a liberal country.

    Gey few of us vote Lib Dem.
  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Good grief. How long until the Greens start outpolling the Liberals?? Meanwhile, I note Jeremy Browne has taken one for the team, deemimg his own party pointless.

    What a rabble the Orange Bookers are - prepare the ejection seat or die as a party Libs.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Mick_Pork said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    JackW said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It will be interesting to see what the ICM shows on Monday.

    Bugger all these silly polls. I want to see real votes being cast in real ballot boxes and real Lib Dem MEPs being given the real boot. We've had plenty of appetisers. I want a main course.
    You'll have to be patient and wait until 18 September when the main course of spit roasted Eck is served to Scottish voters .... and as for the vegetables - the rest of the SNP notables will be done to perfection in the pan juices

    Luvely jubbly

    At some point you lot are going to realise that this is nothing to do with the SNP. But hopefully not until after 18 September.
    The combined power of a potty old mans farts and a deluded Clegg spinner really does count for a great deal in the real world, doesn't it?

    *chortle*
    Come September 18th , you will have to fess up and admit that we both know more about Scottish politics than you and sub sample Dickson .
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    AndyJS said:

    I don't think UKIP would win any seats with 15% of the vote, but with 20% they'd probably win Boston, Thanet South, Folkestone, Eastleigh, Torbay, Devon North, Devon West, Great Yarmouth, Camborne, Forest of Dean, Worthing East.

    http://www.libdemvoice.org/where-ukip-won-or-almost-won-on-2nd-may-2013-34503.html

    UKIP normally double their national share of the vote in Thurrock (last 3 GE's)
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    BobaFett said:

    Good grief. How long until the Greens start outpolling the Liberals?? Meanwhile, I note Jeremy Browne has taken one for the team, deemimg his own party pointless.

    What a rabble the Orange Bookers are - prepare the ejection seat or die as a party Libs.

    Well, at least people who vote Green know what they are voting for. What does voting Lib Dem get you except post-cognitive dissonance?
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.
    For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
    The actual number isn't that important. What's important is that they are registering at historic lows: if there was an election on 10th April, it would have been a worst case scenario result.
    Yet in real elections they don't seem (subjectively, I don't have the figures) to be doing that badly. I daresay someone'll have the figures.
    They've been getting hammered regularly every May when the actual bulk of elections take place. That continual loss of lib dem councillors and activists is going to have a serious and hugely damaging effect come 2015 since everyone knows it used to be ground campaigning that lib dems relied on most heavily. We've already seen that happen in scotland where the lib dems now have a taxi full of MSPs and are basically an irrelevance now.

  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    You reckon it should be 3% ?

  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BobaFett said:

    Good grief. How long until the Greens start outpolling the Liberals?? Meanwhile, I note Jeremy Browne has taken one for the team, deemimg his own party pointless.

    What a rabble the Orange Bookers are - prepare the ejection seat or die as a party Libs.

    How is collapsing in the polls after Nick Clegg raves about the EU on national TV the fault of the Orange Bookers? It's clearly the party's europhilia that's destroyed them here, not the Orange Bookers.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    FPT

    @Nigel4England

    Powell was right on immigration, both on numbers % of population ad the social effect, and he as right on the EEC reducing Nation states to provinces

    Fascinating speech from 1976
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2014
    MarkSenior said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    JackW said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It will be interesting to see what the ICM shows on Monday.

    Bugger all these silly polls. I want to see real votes being cast in real ballot boxes and real Lib Dem MEPs being given the real boot. We've had plenty of appetisers. I want a main course.
    You'll have to be patient and wait until 18 September when the main course of spit roasted Eck is served to Scottish voters .... and as for the vegetables - the rest of the SNP notables will be done to perfection in the pan juices

    Luvely jubbly

    At some point you lot are going to realise that this is nothing to do with the SNP. But hopefully not until after 18 September.
    The combined power of a potty old mans farts and a deluded Clegg spinner really does count for a great deal in the real world, doesn't it?

    *chortle*
    Come September 18th , you will have to fess up and admit that we both know more about Scottish politics than you and sub sample Dickson .
    That why the scottish lib dems were smashed in 2011 have a taxi full of MSPs and are an irrelevance now? Did you or JackArse predict that?

    Any other 'triumphs' for Clegg you see on horizon?

    LOL
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    surbiton said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    You reckon it should be 3% ?

    :)
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.
    For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
    The actual number isn't that important. What's important is that they are registering at historic lows: if there was an election on 10th April, it would have been a worst case scenario result.
    Yet in real elections they don't seem (subjectively, I don't have the figures) to be doing that badly. I daresay someone'll have the figures.

    If my suspicions are right, do we have any historic figures from the last couple of parliaments to show how well on average local by-elections match or mismatch polling?
    In the first three months of this year, their median result is 5-10%, their mode <5%.

    http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/vote-share-performances-in-council-by.html

    But that's a very small number of contests.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Mick_Pork said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.
    For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
    The actual number isn't that important. What's important is that they are registering at historic lows: if there was an election on 10th April, it would have been a worst case scenario result.
    Yet in real elections they don't seem (subjectively, I don't have the figures) to be doing that badly. I daresay someone'll have the figures.
    They've been getting hammered regularly every May when the actual bulk of elections take place. That continual loss of lib dem councillors and activists is going to have a serious and hugely damaging effect come 2015 since everyone knows it used to be ground campaigning that lib dems relied on most heavily. We've already seen that happen in scotland where the lib dems now have a taxi full of MSPs and are basically an irrelevance now.

    I accept that the Lib Dems have lost many councillors in the last 3 years , however in most Lib Dem seats and where they are challenging that is not true , Cheltenham . Bath and Portsmouth for example has seen Lib Dem councillor gains .
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    old_labour said:

    Danny Alexander has not ruled out increasing them again for English students.
    http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/apr/11/danny-alexander-tuition-fees-may-rise

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Maybe the Tories should propose PR now and get a Parliamentary vote organised. That way they'd probably get a coalition with UKIP after the next GE.

    But would the Lib Dems vote for PR now? It would be political suicide. FPTP is the only thing giving them any hope.

    If they didn't it would make them entirely disreputable and would probably kill them as a party permanently. So don't rule it out!!

    The words "tuition fees" will be inscribed on their tombstone.
    Yikes! Why is Inverness MP Danny so keen on thumping English students?

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    In reality they wouldn't go below 10-12% because of personal votes for various MPs and candidates, something which national opinion polls can't take into account.
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MarkSenior said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.
    For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
    The actual number isn't that important. What's important is that they are registering at historic lows: if there was an election on 10th April, it would have been a worst case scenario result.
    Yet in real elections they don't seem (subjectively, I don't have the figures) to be doing that badly. I daresay someone'll have the figures.
    They've been getting hammered regularly every May when the actual bulk of elections take place. That continual loss of lib dem councillors and activists is going to have a serious and hugely damaging effect come 2015 since everyone knows it used to be ground campaigning that lib dems relied on most heavily. We've already seen that happen in scotland where the lib dems now have a taxi full of MSPs and are basically an irrelevance now.

    I accept that the Lib Dems have lost many councillors in the last 3 years , however in most Lib Dem seats and where they are challenging that is not true , Cheltenham . Bath and Portsmouth for example has seen Lib Dem councillor gains .
    - "Cheltenham Bath Portsmouth"

    Pure comedy gold. Almost beyond parody.
  • Options
    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Mick_Pork said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.
    For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
    The actual number isn't that important. What's important is that they are registering at historic lows: if there was an election on 10th April, it would have been a worst case scenario result.
    Yet in real elections they don't seem (subjectively, I don't have the figures) to be doing that badly. I daresay someone'll have the figures.
    They've been getting hammered regularly every May when the actual bulk of elections take place. That continual loss of lib dem councillors and activists is going to have a serious and hugely damaging effect come 2015 since everyone knows it used to be ground campaigning that lib dems relied on most heavily. We've already seen that happen in scotland where the lib dems now have a taxi full of MSPs and are basically an irrelevance now.

    The Lib Dems are great in one off council by elections as they "flock together". When they have to fight on multiple fronts as they will in May in South West London,Kingston, Sutton,Richmond they will find the task far more difficult.
    Add to that much tighter rules from returning officers on postal and proxies it will make it harder for them to carry out their postal vote harvesting which they have done in the past.."
    It will be interesting..
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.
    For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
    The actual number isn't that important. What's important is that they are registering at historic lows: if there was an election on 10th April, it would have been a worst case scenario result.
    Yet in real elections they don't seem (subjectively, I don't have the figures) to be doing that badly. I daresay someone'll have the figures.

    If my suspicions are right, do we have any historic figures from the last couple of parliaments to show how well on average local by-elections match or mismatch polling?
    In the first three months of this year, their median result is 5-10%, their mode <5%.

    http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/vote-share-performances-in-council-by.html

    But that's a very small number of contests.</p>
    In this year's by elections the Lib Dem vote share has exceeded 30% in 9 contests , UKIP in 1.
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    timmo said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.
    For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
    The actual number isn't that important. What's important is that they are registering at historic lows: if there was an election on 10th April, it would have been a worst case scenario result.
    Yet in real elections they don't seem (subjectively, I don't have the figures) to be doing that badly. I daresay someone'll have the figures.
    They've been getting hammered regularly every May when the actual bulk of elections take place. That continual loss of lib dem councillors and activists is going to have a serious and hugely damaging effect come 2015 since everyone knows it used to be ground campaigning that lib dems relied on most heavily. We've already seen that happen in scotland where the lib dems now have a taxi full of MSPs and are basically an irrelevance now.

    The Lib Dems are great in one off council by elections as they "flock together". When they have to fight on multiple fronts as they will in May in South West London,Kingston, Sutton,Richmond they will find the task far more difficult.
    Add to that much tighter rules from returning officers on postal and proxies it will make it harder for them to carry out their postal vote harvesting which they have done in the past.."
    It will be interesting..
    Those nice Lib Dems abusing the electoral system? Shoorley not!

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/jun/25/lib-dem-donor-jailed-fleeing
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    MarkSenior said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.
    For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
    The actual number isn't that important. What's important is that they are registering at historic lows: if there was an election on 10th April, it would have been a worst case scenario result.
    Yet in real elections they don't seem (subjectively, I don't have the figures) to be doing that badly. I daresay someone'll have the figures.
    They've been getting hammered regularly every May when the actual bulk of elections take place. That continual loss of lib dem councillors and activists is going to have a serious and hugely damaging effect come 2015 since everyone knows it used to be ground campaigning that lib dems relied on most heavily. We've already seen that happen in scotland where the lib dems now have a taxi full of MSPs and are basically an irrelevance now.

    I accept that the Lib Dems have lost many councillors in the last 3 years
    That's big of you. I'm sure the world of politics is relieved that one of Clegg's ostrich faction of spinners finally accepts the bleeding obvious. Still, you could always desperately scrabble around for the one or two places that haven't followed the self-evident trend because that would certainly prove that Clegg isn't toxic.

  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MarkSenior said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.
    For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
    The actual number isn't that important. What's important is that they are registering at historic lows: if there was an election on 10th April, it would have been a worst case scenario result.
    Yet in real elections they don't seem (subjectively, I don't have the figures) to be doing that badly. I daresay someone'll have the figures.

    If my suspicions are right, do we have any historic figures from the last couple of parliaments to show how well on average local by-elections match or mismatch polling?
    In the first three months of this year, their median result is 5-10%, their mode <5%.

    http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/vote-share-performances-in-council-by.html

    But that's a very small number of contests.</p>
    In this year's by elections the Lib Dem vote share has exceeded 30% in 9 contests , UKIP in 1.
    Indeed.

    Once again Mark Senior provides conclusive evidence that the Lib Dems are the greatest party on the planet: 30% nailed on!
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Also, when we get a three to four point bump for UKIP after two public debates on the EU, can we stop pretending UKIP's rise isn't related to the EU?
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Mick_Pork said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.
    For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
    The actual number isn't that important. What's important is that they are registering at historic lows: if there was an election on 10th April, it would have been a worst case scenario result.
    Yet in real elections they don't seem (subjectively, I don't have the figures) to be doing that badly. I daresay someone'll have the figures.
    They've been getting hammered regularly every May when the actual bulk of elections take place. That continual loss of lib dem councillors and activists is going to have a serious and hugely damaging effect come 2015 since everyone knows it used to be ground campaigning that lib dems relied on most heavily. We've already seen that happen in scotland where the lib dems now have a taxi full of MSPs and are basically an irrelevance now.

    I accept that the Lib Dems have lost many councillors in the last 3 years
    That's big of you. I'm sure the world of politics is relieved that one of Clegg's ostrich faction of spinners finally accepts the bleeding obvious. Still, you could always desperately scrabble around for the one or two places that haven't followed the self-evident trend because that would certainly prove that Clegg isn't toxic.

    Walter knows that Clegg is toxic. That is why he hates other folk pointing it out.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,052
    fitalass said:

    Clegg was stupid to give Farage the oxygen of publicity for the last month on the back of that gross tactical error, and the Libdems are paying for it now.

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Well I did present a minority opinion after the Clegg/Farage debates that Clegg may drive down the LD voting support because he will have clarified to those aware of the debates that his party is pro-EC. In a previous survey reported on here, it was reported that 40% of LD voters were actually eurosceptic....

    The Lib Dem strategy is explained by Eastleigh. Give Ukip a big platform so they can take lots of votes off the Tories and the Lib Dems might hang on to plenty of their MPs. I didnt watch the debates but if Clegg said that he thought in 10 years time the EU would be pretty much as it is now that sounds like a big mistake. If you go on Libdemvoice some of their grassroots were never happy about the 'party of in' and they would have preferred a vision for how Liberal Democrats would change Europe.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    FrankBooth said:

    fitalass said:

    Clegg was stupid to give Farage the oxygen of publicity for the last month on the back of that gross tactical error, and the Libdems are paying for it now.

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Well I did present a minority opinion after the Clegg/Farage debates that Clegg may drive down the LD voting support because he will have clarified to those aware of the debates that his party is pro-EC. In a previous survey reported on here, it was reported that 40% of LD voters were actually eurosceptic....

    The Lib Dem strategy is explained by Eastleigh. Give Ukip a big platform so they can take lots of votes off the Tories and the Lib Dems might hang on to plenty of their MPs. I didnt watch the debates but if Clegg said that he thought in 10 years time the EU would be pretty much as it is now that sounds like a big mistake. If you go on Libdemvoice some of their grassroots were never happy about the 'party of in' and they would have preferred a vision for how Liberal Democrats would change Europe.
    I thought the Eastleigh strategy was a quick by-election, to prevent other parties building momentum.

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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    FrankBooth said:

    fitalass said:

    Clegg was stupid to give Farage the oxygen of publicity for the last month on the back of that gross tactical error, and the Libdems are paying for it now.

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Well I did present a minority opinion after the Clegg/Farage debates that Clegg may drive down the LD voting support because he will have clarified to those aware of the debates that his party is pro-EC. In a previous survey reported on here, it was reported that 40% of LD voters were actually eurosceptic....

    The Lib Dem strategy is explained by Eastleigh. Give Ukip a big platform so they can take lots of votes off the Tories and the Lib Dems might hang on to plenty of their MPs. I didnt watch the debates but if Clegg said that he thought in 10 years time the EU would be pretty much as it is now that sounds like a big mistake. If you go on Libdemvoice some of their grassroots were never happy about the 'party of in' and they would have preferred a vision for how Liberal Democrats would change Europe.
    The Lib Dems have always been an uneasy alliance of right of centre and left of centre folk. They basically lost their left of centre supporters by joining the Tories in coalition for a period of austerity. Given that the right of centre aren't exactly super keen on the EU, it was a pretty stupid strategy.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,321
    Yellow Pox on 7%? To misquote Pete and Dud - Laugh? I nearly shat
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    timmo said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.
    For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
    The actual number isn't that important. What's important is that they are registering at historic lows: if there was an election on 10th April, it would have been a worst case scenario result.
    Yet in real elections they don't seem (subjectively, I don't have the figures) to be doing that badly. I daresay someone'll have the figures.
    They've been getting hammered regularly every May when the actual bulk of elections take place. That continual loss of lib dem councillors and activists is going to have a serious and hugely damaging effect come 2015 since everyone knows it used to be ground campaigning that lib dems relied on most heavily. We've already seen that happen in scotland where the lib dems now have a taxi full of MSPs and are basically an irrelevance now.

    The Lib Dems are great in one off council by elections as they "flock together". When they have to fight on multiple fronts as they will in May in South West London,Kingston, Sutton,Richmond they will find the task far more difficult.
    Add to that much tighter rules from returning officers on postal and proxies it will make it harder for them to carry out their postal vote harvesting which they have done in the past.."
    It will be interesting..
    Excellent points that are backed up by what happens every May compared to the far smaller number of isolated by-elections. You can also add the cumulative effect that a national campaign has on focusing voters on a big set of elections as well as spreading any resources left incredibly thinly. Financial resources will obviously take a hit as well the weaker that base is. The publicity of a May election campaign also brings in the 'bigger picture' whereby the leaders have to be front and centre and the media will focus on them. Something that will really hit those parties with very unpopular leaders, like Clegg.

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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Yellow Pox on 7%? To misquote Pete and Dud - Laugh? I nearly shat

    Join the club.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Socrates said:

    FrankBooth said:

    fitalass said:

    Clegg was stupid to give Farage the oxygen of publicity for the last month on the back of that gross tactical error, and the Libdems are paying for it now.

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Well I did present a minority opinion after the Clegg/Farage debates that Clegg may drive down the LD voting support because he will have clarified to those aware of the debates that his party is pro-EC. In a previous survey reported on here, it was reported that 40% of LD voters were actually eurosceptic....

    The Lib Dem strategy is explained by Eastleigh. Give Ukip a big platform so they can take lots of votes off the Tories and the Lib Dems might hang on to plenty of their MPs. I didnt watch the debates but if Clegg said that he thought in 10 years time the EU would be pretty much as it is now that sounds like a big mistake. If you go on Libdemvoice some of their grassroots were never happy about the 'party of in' and they would have preferred a vision for how Liberal Democrats would change Europe.
    The Lib Dems have always been an uneasy alliance of right of centre and left of centre folk. They basically lost their left of centre supporters by joining the Tories in coalition for a period of austerity. Given that the right of centre aren't exactly super keen on the EU, it was a pretty stupid strategy.
    It wasn't a strategy. They made it up as they went along. And boy, does it show.


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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.
    For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
    The actual number isn't that important. What's important is that they are registering at historic lows: if there was an election on 10th April, it would have been a worst case scenario result.
    Yet in real elections they don't seem (subjectively, I don't have the figures) to be doing that badly. I daresay someone'll have the figures.

    If my suspicions are right, do we have any historic figures from the last couple of parliaments to show how well on average local by-elections match or mismatch polling?
    In the first three months of this year, their median result is 5-10%, their mode <5%.

    http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/vote-share-performances-in-council-by.html

    But that's a very small number of contests.</p>
    Thanks for that; it's worse than I was expecting for the Lib Dems, but as you say it is a limited data set. 7% still seems far too low to me though, although certainly possible.

    Again, thanks.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2014
    anotherDave said:

    FrankBooth said:

    fitalass said:

    Clegg was stupid to give Farage the oxygen of publicity for the last month on the back of that gross tactical error, and the Libdems are paying for it now.

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Well I did present a minority opinion after the Clegg/Farage debates that Clegg may drive down the LD voting support because he will have clarified to those aware of the debates that his party is pro-EC. In a previous survey reported on here, it was reported that 40% of LD voters were actually eurosceptic....

    The Lib Dem strategy is explained by Eastleigh. Give Ukip a big platform so they can take lots of votes off the Tories and the Lib Dems might hang on to plenty of their MPs. I didnt watch the debates but if Clegg said that he thought in 10 years time the EU would be pretty much as it is now that sounds like a big mistake. If you go on Libdemvoice some of their grassroots were never happy about the 'party of in' and they would have preferred a vision for how Liberal Democrats would change Europe.
    I thought the Eastleigh strategy was a quick by-election, to prevent other parties building momentum.

    Which nearly didn't work because that was when the Clegg Rennard shambles really started to kick off with calamity Clegg all over the place looking clueless and incompetent. I'm sure those on the ground in Eastleigh were as grateful for that blundering as those on the ground in May will be for Clegg's comical blundering over Farage this time.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,052
    anotherDave said:

    FrankBooth said:

    fitalass said:

    Clegg was stupid to give Farage the oxygen of publicity for the last month on the back of that gross tactical error, and the Libdems are paying for it now.

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Well I did present a minority opinion after the Clegg/Farage debates that Clegg may drive down the LD voting support because he will have clarified to those aware of the debates that his party is pro-EC. In a previous survey reported on here, it was reported that 40% of LD voters were actually eurosceptic....

    The Lib Dem strategy is explained by Eastleigh. Give Ukip a big platform so they can take lots of votes off the Tories and the Lib Dems might hang on to plenty of their MPs. I didnt watch the debates but if Clegg said that he thought in 10 years time the EU would be pretty much as it is now that sounds like a big mistake. If you go on Libdemvoice some of their grassroots were never happy about the 'party of in' and they would have preferred a vision for how Liberal Democrats would change Europe.
    I thought the Eastleigh strategy was a quick by-election, to prevent other parties building momentum.

    I meant the Eastleigh by election result.

    Socrates - actually I think there is a group of europhile 'pro-business' types the Lib Dems could target. The Economist and Financial Times are good representations of these views. But you're looking at 10% of the electorate max.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Camborne & Redruth (Con maj = 66) is looking like a bit of a nail biter:

    Con 8/15 (PP)
    LD 5/2
    UKIP 10/1 (Lad)
    Lab 20/1 (Lad)
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Any poll that shows the Lib Dems on just 7% smells suspicious to me.

    Four different pollsters surveyed at the same time. The LD result was 7% (ComRes), 7% (Opinium), 8% (YouGov), 11% (Populus)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yep. Still smells suspicious. And I'm not a Lib Dem member or supporter.
    For one thing, are we seeing anything near that collapse in their support in local elections? I know LEs and GEs are different, but I still prefer cast votes to polling.
    Lib Dems always, always, ALWAYS do better in local elections than general elections. LD councillors are generally very good at doing things in the local community that pull in people who would never consider voting for the party in a general election. Certainly there's anecdotes a plenty of canvassers (from all parties) in recent years hearing comments along the lines of "the local Lib Dems have done a good job round here so I'll vote for them, but I won't vote for the sellouts in parliament again before hell freezes over".

    Even in 2010, despite the late surge they got ahead of the general election, the 23% they got was STILL below their average share in the local elections in the previous 4 years (26%, which already was quite mediocre by LDs' standards). So, with the party getting 14/15% in recent local elections, that would suggest their absolute maximum next year is 11/12% with the local factor stripped out.
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